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Market moving insight and analysis join Jim Kramer, David Faber, and me, Carl Cantonea on the opening bell hour of CNBC Squawk on the street. Good Thursday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the street. I'm Carl Cantonea with Jim Kramer, David Faber at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Futures are solid coming off the best session for S&P Nasdaq since February, 10-year, awfully close to 4%, as jobless claims come in highest in a year. Our roadmap begins with Meta's Big Beat. Stock is surging on its latest results. Revenue up 22 following that aggressive AI strategy. Plus the Fed holding rate steady, but Chair Powell saying the central bank could cut in September if data continues on its current path. We've also have two bigger earning interviews coming up in the next hour or so. CEOs of Carbana and Arm Holdings, stock's moving in opposite directions, at least in the pre-market. Let's get to Meta jumping on this Q2 beat and issuing a better than expected forecast. Gaines in the digital ad market, raising their spending guidance for its AI infrastructure, Jim. CapEx Guide's pretty interesting. Came in a little bit below, but raising for the full year. I love this. The amount of compute needed, this is for next year, this is Mark, to train llama for, that's a large language, David. We'll be 10 times more than what we use to train llama for you. Okay, so that's writing a check to Jensen Wong for a huge amount of money, but the ROI is so clear here because Mark Zuckerberg told you that Meta AI, which I use and I find whimsical, is the number one. It's going to be number one in the GPT sweepstakes. Number one in the sweepstakes. Well, wait, AI is clearly also benefiting their advertising business. Oh my, but you're talking about two separate things. Well, I'm complaining greatness, David. I'm complaining greatness. If you go and listen to what he has to say with a good Mark about advertising, I love this. His AI also going to significantly evolve our services for advertisers in some exciting ways. He used to be advertisers came to us with a specific audience. Okay, now they know that the audience is better than the advertisers. Soon, all that will happen is that advertisers will basically just be able to tell us business objective, a budget, and we'll do it better than they can. So it's the end of a huge part that you got. I mean, the people who figure out what to figure those things out, but that is being powered by AI, which is making ad buys more efficient, more effective. And that's obviously helping what was a top line that was absolutely very strong, but to your point, spending also ramping up sharply. But he has no choice in terms of capital. He has to meet the demand as opposed to, well, look, I keep coming back to Alphabet saying they have to be defensive and spending. Zuckerberg is offering called the best soup to nuts I've ever seen, targeted to advertising targeted to exactly who you want created by them by machine. That's productivity. That's the beginning of what I say. Okay, that's clear. There are companies that you used to go to with this, and those companies right now are shaking. The people work at them, they're shaking. We're starting to get some clues about that, given today's productivity print and unit labor cost print. Maybe early, but who knows? Nope, that's why I brought it up. Yeah. I think we're beginning to see the change in the economy. At least it's who said it to us, the CEO of AMD. We're beginning to see solutions by machines that are better than humans. And David, this is not Star Link or whatever you're going to bring up to me. This is just like a very good way to do business. What? Star Link. What are you talking about? Whatever it is. Whatever he's using now to describe it. Who knows? Remember the scene in term there too, where Wolfie, he says Wolfie, and it's not the real name of the dog? Oh, you mean my end of the world scenario? Yeah, the end of the world scenario is not happening. What's happening is that you can sell them. Listen, I want to sell chocolate, which by the way, Hershey's better than you because they didn't. So do it better than I can. I want you to target all the people who like Hershey's kisses. And then what happens is that, you know, in 30 seconds they have a better commercial than you've ever seen. Zuckerberg is so confident of this that it just, it read like, like Roman Conqueror. Roman Conqueror. Now, they're still benefiting from the old year of efficiency. It's been more than a year now, but there is, yeah, obvious, I wouldn't call it concerned, but expectation that that's going to end. You know, they did talk about meaningful increases in your access to your head count as well. Yes. They're going to lap, of course, those job cuts from the fourth quarter of 2024. So what are we talking about? CapEx is going to be, what, 37 to 40 billion? I mean, operating expenses, obviously going to go up as well. Well, I mean, now revenues are just going to keep accelerating. If I were it, now I know why Alpha is afraid. I mean, he's outspending Alpha, he's outspending everybody. Obviously that meeting that we saw. He's not outspending Microsoft. Well, we don't know because Microsoft has a lot of different moving parts, but I'm just saying for this specific notion of advertising, he is coming up with a solution that I think is going to drive a lot of traffic. And David, one of the things that's happened, I know you're going to love this, because you're just going to laugh at me. He's all going to laugh at me. It's the carry situation with John Travolt again. Ray-Bam meta-glasses continue to be a bigger hit sooner than we expected. Thanks, David. What I tell you. You did? Yeah. Right here. I say it comes out here. You're still losing, what, four and a half billion? It was on reality labs. Is that right? Four and a half billion in reality lab losses, and those are going to extend according to last night's call. Yeah. But at the same time, Jim, operating margins up nine points. Well, that's the point. I mean, come on. I mean, the guy is obviously in meta-reality is just at reality labs. All that is is cost of doing business. I think there's a lot of stuff buried in that. Quest III, by the way, does crazed in. But I just think that what's going on here, Carl, is the revolution that Jensen Wong has been talking about, where machines can do a lot of things better than humans, is now here, 24 and 25. We just heard from Costas and Al Michaels talking about voices getting copied. Yeah. Oh, absolutely. No, it's all very easy. What's going on? We heard this was going to happen. This is video. And video is Blackwell. Video is Blackwell. And Blackwell's going to be shipping in volume. And I don't know whether the rumor is Zuckerberg would have taken everything. I don't know if you can. But you've got to try to explain what that means. Video is Blackwell. First of all, Blackwell is a chip that is yet to ship, but will ship from the city and the next generation. The next generation. But what does video mean? No, not me. No, no, you haven't. You're guilty. Guilty. I'm pleading guilty right now. All right. You're a witness to the prosecution. Now is your opportunity to explain. Tyrone Power is so cool. Okay, so. Right now we have a lot of print. Remember when Jensen Wong told me, of course you don't, that they can download Moby Dick in one second? Yes. Well, read it in one second. Read it right. Now they're going to be able to do a video and you'll be able to recall video. Now look, Toby has a solution that's really terrific right now. You can use fireflies. So how's that going to change our business? Great. I thought he was a hologram. So that's why I'm answering a hologram. What is it? Carl, which of the three of us is a hologram? I think we all know. I think we do too, Jim. Yeah. That's all right. He's out. No, it's because what's happening is that you can say, "Look, I need a great ad." And then that's the end. You used to have a bake off. You had to advertise. Not only that, they'll change the ad literally every second if it would help. Yeah. Who needs an agency? Now, of course, agency is going to say, "You do." But I think that what Marx tried more. What he's trying to do is say, "Look, now we have video. We can change video every second. So why would you ever advertise anywhere else?" This is a threat to YouTube even. And we know YouTube was allegedly hobbled in the previous quarter. Yeah, 10% of the ad base basically now using JNI. Some of it in creative ways. And Mark talked about the way in which JNI is going to change all kinds of product offerings in the future. Take a listen. I do think that part of what's so fundamental about AI is it's going to end up affecting almost every product that we have in some way. It will improve the existing ones and will make a whole lot of new ones possible. So it's why there are all the jokes about how all the tech CEOs get on these earnings calls and just talk about AI the whole time. It's because it's actually super exciting and it's going to change all these different things over multiple time horizons. Hey, man. He probably did it. I mean, look, he's the Thor 10. Dave, he's the Thor 10 fellow. That's... And what he's basically saying is all that stuff about you think AI is hype? Wait a second. They're finding uses every day. And David, I keep coming back to that productivity number. If you keep finding uses, why do you need to hire as many people? You don't. You don't. And then you come back to like, do I need you? I will always need you. You'll always need me. Yes. Yeah, I think our viewers are well aware of it. Whatever happened to the metaverse, Jim? A company still called meta. Is this the metaverse? Yeah. We're all in the metaverse. Reality Labs is still sort of where you put the Raybans on. The Raybans are great. You can take pictures. Raybans are great, David. You can say, what's that? You're on 14th Street and there's like a hubbub at Whole Foods. And you say to your, this is actually true. Okay. You say to your glasses, what's that hubbub on 14th Street? And it comes back and says, Whole Foods is featuring pineapples for 35 cents. That's the reality. Don't you, you've always wanted that. Oh, yes. I love pineapples. I'm hoping for it. There's been to be more of a rubric. Yes. What's on the line tonight for Apple Amazon regarding all this? OK. It's fabulous harder. Because we want to hear whether Alphabet is going to lie with them or chat GPT because it's obvious. Look, series faggot. I don't want to get too much into series because series will put on play the Springsteen. So I was playing some Springsteen this morning. It'll come right up. Series is much better than it was. I don't know if you guys have been in touch with Siri. But you can say, listen, play a board in the USA. And it's just, it's really good now. So we have to hear whether they need someone else as much as we think. And then Amazon is just, again, like Zuckerberg, Amazon is going to say, you want it advertising. You want to find it right here on our site. My problem is so many people use this. And it's so easy to toggle between my Facebook and my ad or my instant. My ad that here I have to go through two steps. So Amazon is going to have to prove itself whether that's a better advertising award. It's not clear. But we're also going to keep an eye on costs. We're going to keep an eye on, to your point, advertising. I'm sure we'll have once again been very strong. Oh, we've seen the complete dissolution of the old media in terms of their ability. Not the Olympics, David, not the croissants. Don't go there. All right, sorry. You're right. Other than the Olympics, Carl, I apologize. But, I mean, the Amazon numbers are going to be extraordinary in terms of advertising. I'm not saying they're going to beat or not beat. None of those things. That's the number themselves. Not to mention, of course, again, back to the whole thing. The idea of CapEx and how much is spent by these companies. Right. We know these hyperscalers and what they're going to need to spend. These are countries. We should stop calling them. I brought it up. I know we had that argument about power in terms of will you buy an actual electricity company. They're regulated. It's unlikely. But you were right in the larger context. All of, as well, an incredibly important component of all of this CapEx spend. Right. Now, securing the power, building the data center where it needs to be built, getting what you need from whatever provider you can get it from. Well, Rusty Brazil from our BN comes out to me and says, "It's really only the Northeast where it could happen." That they need so much natural gas that they might be able to. There could be a deal. But, yes, I think you're right. I don't think the natural gas could be going to get a bid, but there's going to be a long time. I think you've also talked that you go to states that have an excess amount of power for these kinds of things. Right now, the Northeast is almost maxed out. Yeah, Montana. Virginia's maxed in. They want to land in Montana, Jim. Maybe you want to open your theme park there now. I looked at Big Sky about 10 days ago. Did you? Yeah. I found a place for-- Pass with the Ireland castle. Does that happen to you? That traded ahead. I did one million and they traded ahead at 1.2. Eight million dollar Renault. The big-sized Renault table. 1.5. Oh, it's the Renault. Well, take a quick break. We're going to get to the chip names. We'll look at Arm and Qualcomm, Western Didge. See how they're moving the market today? We'll get to Shaq, Etsy, Carvana. And we'll talk yields as the Bank of England joins Canada and the ECB in cutting. Stay with us. At EverNorth Health Services, we believe costs shouldn't get in the way of life-changing care. And we're doing everything in our power to make it possible. Behavioral health solutions that also keep your projections at their best. It's possible. Pharmacy benefits that benefit your bottom line. It's possible. Complex specialty care that cares about your ROI. It's possible. Because we're already doing it. All while saving businesses billions. That's wonder made possible. Learn more at EverNorth.com/wonder. Support for this program is provided by Chevron. Demand for energy is projected to continue rising in the future. To help keep up, Chevron is increasing their US oil and gas production. And they're innovating to help do it responsibly across their operations, including their Gulf of Mexico facilities, which are some of the world's lowest carbon intensity operations. Helping supply energy that's affordable, reliable, and ever cleaner. That's energy in progress. Learn more at chevron.com/meetingdemand. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big RO as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B. But with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get a $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn. The place to be. To be. Techn moves on the move today include Qualcomm, Western Didge, Arm Holdings. We are going to talk to Renee Haas next hour on Squalk on the show. Jim, there's Nvidia setting a record for market cap gains in a single day yesterday. Yes, that was yesterday. It's almost like a foretold what Mark Zuckerberg said on net. But I have to say that when it got to 23 times earnings, it was a nectar's earnings. It was a wake up call. And I think people realized wait a second. It's not that expensive. By the way, I don't think people realized. But meta's selling it 19 times earnings. 19 times earnings. I mean, David, much higher. By the way, it has been the case for some time. Meta and alphabet of also. But the stocks have been traded at relatively lower multiples. Even below that of the broader market. So it does have an apple. And apple has had an apple. Also really in the quadrant today. Because that multiples has expanded dramatically. Yeah. People feel that wait a second, it's no longer just an iteration of phone, iteration of phone. Maybe service revenues. But David, that's going to be the tail of the table. Yep. Because it's so huge. And people just are acting like it's going to be fine no matter what. Well, you're going to be here. We'll all be here to go through it tomorrow. Obviously we get an employment number as well. But that moving in video was extraordinary. I mean, again, when you're talking about adding 328 billion in market value, you're basically talking about adding in one day more than the market cap of how many of the 500 S&P companies? Okay. Probably 470 of them. Let me give you another statistic. Carl, it lost $800 billion from peak to trough, which is bigger than all but seven stocks in the market. So it's not like it made back all that it's lost yet. Not at all. What do we make of the arm and the western ditch guidance today? Well, you know, they have this Internet of things stuff that is, we'll talk to Renee Haas. Surprisingly weak. And it's quizzical. By the way, it wasn't like Qualcomm was spared either. I mean, Renee, actually, it was a CFO dropped this kind of mini bomb saying, well, of course, like Internet of things wasn't that strong. I said, whoa, whoa. I didn't know that. It was new to me. Qualcomm is interesting because the number itself looked strong. Yes. Now you've got to keep in mind the stock. If you take a look, I think it was down 13% over just the last three weeks. Yes. Like so many of these other companies that we've been talking about in their stocks. So you see the B sales, but then, you know, and they say some nice things about AI and the call, including that beyond headsets and PCs. They expect on-device AI to drive competitive differentiation in industrial to your point, networking, automotive, and the like. But then they also talked about the smartphone market as quote, kind of flattish to a little bit of growth. The premier tier is actually growing faster, and we've seen that. So that took some investors by surprise, and that turned the stock around pre-market. Again, you're looking at pre-market now. We'll see what happens. But you did get this moment in the call where they did a guide. And the guide, first one, first quarter 25, might look similar to first quarter 24. They said, well, that means it's plus 5%, but people are looking for plus 9%. So that's the, that's what happened. Name is right in the call, the guide is what causes to go down. And there it is. Yeah, that we're talking about. I thought it was kind of shocking, frankly. I don't get it, but Christiana Mon is at pre-market times the hype gets lower out of the story. It's my kid. That's what I thought. I'm going to ask David a really trenchant question. It's rhetorical, but let's see if he gives me a chance. David, what does this say about where Intel is? With ARM really taking share, AMD really takes it. What does it say? Intel is just living a fight another day, don't you think? Build those plants, become the leader once again. If Taiwan is not defended under a potential Trump administration, they'll be in a very good position. Very good answer. Won't they? Yes. Very good answer. It's very diplomatic and it's better than what I would have said. They're laying off a lot of people to sort of cut costs. Waiting for numbers on that. The worst down stock of the year. Mobile eye is going to open down 14. Oh, man. What happened? Just on numbers. Yeah. It hurts. It got hurts. It got hurts. And that's not... Jay, you don't want to get hurts. You don't want to get hurts. No. Let's go get hurts. We will talk about some cars, a bunch of figures out of the European automakers. Carvana, of course. Good year. Toyota. Race. We'll get Kramer's mad dash. And the opening bell in less than 10 minutes. Walmart Plus members save on meeting up with friends. Save on having them over for dinner with free delivery with no hidden fees or markups. That's groceries plus napkins plus that vegetable chopper to make things a bit easier. 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Seven minutes before we get started with the trading here at the New York Times. We're going to start off with Mad Dash Time. So many earnings to cover this morning. And a lot of movers on it, including Wayfair. This is a brand a lot of people know very well at home. It's one I use. It's one my daughter's use. It's what you want to fill up a room with furniture you use, especially in office. Well, David, it looks like that what R.H. was saying, Gary Friedman, which was the high end, is now extended to Wayfair. Wayfair is saying customers remain cautious and they're spending on the home. They suggest that the category correction now mirrors. Are you ready, skidaddy? The magnitude of the peak to trough decline. The home furnishing space experience during the great financial crisis. No kidding. I'm not kidding. You're taking you back to 0809? Yes. And that's why I thought this was really important because if you're Jay Powell and you're watching our show right now, because that's obvious. You're listening to Wayfair and you're saying, wow, you know, maybe it's longer R.H. It's no longer R.H. I think that's very significant. W is pretty much inexpensive. I always think high quality, but it's inexpensive. So if you don't have enough to buy this kind of furniture and we can't buy hamburgers wimpy, then I've got to tell you, this is a new economy. It's the school like they should have cut yesterday. I first should have let them know. I don't think that's wrong. The numbers that I'm getting from different companies are they should have cut yesterday. Interesting. The drop off is really rather significant. We haven't seen barbersters, which I'm told are going to be horrendous. We have so many other earnings to cover this morning. We'll try and get to a lot of them. Of course, we've got an opening bell about five minutes from now. Don't forget you can catch us anytime anywhere by listening to and following the squawk on the street. Opening bell podcast. If we were to see, for example, inflation moving down quickly or more or less in line with expectations. Growth remains, let's say, reasonably strong. And the labor market remains consistent with its current condition. Then I would think that a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting. That's the Fed Chair from yesterday afternoon talking about both sides of the dual mandate. Saying he doesn't want to see more deterioration in the labor market. Jim claims were the highest since August today. No, it's happening really quickly. We're just speaking to Ernie Garcia, CEO of Carbonna. They're the second largest in the used car market. And used car prices are now almost back in the 2019. They were one of the worst parts. So all that really that J-PAL has that's bad is homes. And what we found was what you take the mortgage rate up. It doesn't build more homes. So that's really the only sticky point. I think it's important to point out that food has not come down enough. That's why people go into Costco and Walmart. And clothing has not come down enough. That's why people go into TJX. And that's just the way it is. The customers change the behavior radically in the last 90 days. Yeah, big journal piece today. The era of high food inflation is over. It's over. And the warnings we've gotten lately, Jim, from Nestle, you mentioned Hershey earlier. Hershey was really, really bad. That was a major miss. David, what's happened, I think, is that a lot of companies thought they'd get away with. You know that? They thought that the consumer didn't notice. That's one of the reasons why I like McDonald's. They saw it. Hershey says consumers pulling back on discretionary spending right at the very beginning of their press release. You can see the stock is going to be down. That heads on Coco is not going to last that long. Joe, that the weakest part of the S&P so far is discretionary item. And it's almost double what it was before. That's who's missing their numbers. And I think that, how should we look at that? Because it's not some government figure. It's real work. It's real work. Let's get the opening bell here at the big board. It's a moment of magic and nonprofit focused on improving the lives of vulnerable and underserved children at the NASDAQ's first team, Metropolitan New York, a youth development organization. As we open up around 55, 40 gyms, speaking of government numbers, we will get a jobs number tomorrow. And I know you just argued Renaissance macro that maybe if these prints keep coming in like this, the Fed will be seen as behind the curve. I think that the Fed may not recognize what Mark Zuckerberg recognized, which things are happening so quickly that you really, if you are, let's say you're at an advertising firm and you would listen to last night's call. And you're going to add 25 people. Instead, you're probably trying to subtract 25 people. Now, by the way, just like with the food companies, no one wants to admit anything's weak. It's really, I've got to tell you, as someone trying to figure out companies, there's almost no one who will say, "Listen, we see weak this in because if he's got to cut numbers." But I just keep getting the idea that they're just not going to hire a lot of people anywhere. A law firm that's going to hire 50, hire 25, people are not being replaced. It is really a moment right now where the high end and the low end are under pressure. High end and low end. What do you make of this 10-year flirting with the three hands? I don't just, I can't believe it. I mean, the government has so much debt. Remember what we ever heard about, except for Josh Frost, who's the terrific hero of the person who makes the race need debt schedule? All we heard about was that this was going to be 1996, '97 debt, where they're always like refinancing. And all you did was look at the bonds. Well, you know what, if you look at the bonds, you want to buy stocks. Yeah, that is a good question as to what point you do, actually. We really haven't seen the move out of money markets, so to speak. No, we have nobody still talks about it. It may not happen. Staying above 4% so pretty good, and the charts are going to be here. You know, it's still not bad. 4.2. Well, that said, it's not 5.2, which was not that long ago. B of A's got a great chart today looking at what happens to stocks after the first cut. 6 months, no, 3 months later, up 10 on the S&P. 6 months later, up 12. No, this is the best time from here till, you know, we're going to have a full rally based on what we historically have. Except we do have an election year and we do not have an incumbent running. An incumbent usually has helped the situation. I mean, historically, I'm not saying I'm not making a political point. Oh, you're right. And it's going to be interesting to see a rate cut in an election cycle that close to the vote. Right. But it does appear likely it's going to happen. Certainly the market expects it. And if we don't get it for some reason, I would assume we don't get that kind of rally. Or maybe we get 50 where the odds are 12% for our people saying 50. They're looking at wayfare earnings or hearing from Hershey saying consumers pulling back. Bedrock. Bedrock. Okay. And you see Etsy. That's another. It just didn't deliver a good quarter. Yeah, I wanted to know. Josh Silverman was a guest earlier. What happened at Etsy? It's just the growth. Now, Josh was not just Silverman, but they just didn't have any growth. And this again, no growth, decline in growth. We've had this house young time for so long, where when you look at the charts, almost every company and discretion is doing pretty well. But they raise prices too much. It's a great point. Among the companies cutting guidance today, we mentioned Hershey. We mentioned Mobileye. Host hotels after Marriott yesterday. Yeah, it was really disappointing. Moderna on this EU weakness. Yeah. And don't forget anything, China. I mean anything, China. David, if you sell things in China, forget it. Forget it. Just forget it. Forget it. Lights out. Turn them out. It's China. Don't let the door hit you on the way. Oh, my. No, China's done. Really amazing because they, like they're not even, they're skipping on things that they never used to. The only thing that they're still spending on that I can tell is clean water. Ooh. What? That's a nasty decline. I mean, that is always a volatile stock. Moderna, anybody who's watched any period of time knows that, but that's a lot. That's kind of the full year gadget by a billion dollars on the range. No, he didn't quit himself that morning this morning or so on. Excuse me. He didn't quit himself well. Oh, he didn't. Well, how would he have acquitted himself given the quarter? What are you supposed to do? Well, no, I'm saying that he didn't try to come up with some, well, he actually did try to say some good things. But it was drowned out by the chart. Meanwhile, I'll give you a, I'll give you a kelvinova. You like your pop tarts kid? You want some? Well, that's a great thing. That was a great promotion in pop tarts. Well, the stock is up four and a half percent. That's actually doing great. Company raising its full year guidance for organic net sales growth, adjusted basis operating profit, double digit operating profit growth sustained. They say they're getting margins back where they like them. It's like performing quite well this morning. It is very anti, let's put it this way. This company is much better run and I think a lot of it is Steve Cullen, K. Helene, because this thing is a GOP-1 nightmare, okay? I mean, you know, David, have you ever had those rice crispy bars? Are you a Pringles guy? Once you start on Pringles, it's hard to stop. No, that's the best place. Once you pop, you can't stop. Yeah, I don't know. Pringles is great. It comes in like a sleeve. Yeah, I know. I like Pringles. I enjoy eating them occasionally, but not often. Well, let me, doesn't pop tarts you combine by the pack right here before you get in the subway. Take a couple of those in the train uptown. Good to know. Delicious. But anyway, I think he's doing a remarkable job, particularly because we know from the GOP-1 new stock that David said everybody takes, that you shouldn't have a craving for Kellen Oge. What about this two-year trial on Zepbound, which looked at long-term benefits for those who had obesity-related heart failure? Well, you could argue if you're Lily, although the stock hardly is up because it's now a no longer favored stock in this market. Heart failure cuts by 38 percent placebo versus placebo hospitalization of the bad outcomes. David, what this says is like, you know, look, let's just prescribe it because the government can't deny it anymore. What it really says is being fat's not good for your health. That's my big takeaway here. You, you're, you're, you're a genius. Thank you. He's genius. And at least to a lot of other bad health outcomes being fat. So when you're not fat, a lot of better things happen. Is that why you swim a lot? Yes. Yes it is. There's the takeaway. Ledecky. I got Ledecky. Oh, did you see the 1500 yesterday? Uh, I actually have not watched the 1500. I'm, she has 20 of the tops times ever. Top time. She's a Comcast. She is the greatest of all time. Make the first remember without a job. She's amazing. And, uh, yeah. A nice treasure. When I met her years ago at the U.S. Open, I took a picture with her. Katie. Fabulous. Well, John Ledecky's her, uh, yeah. Oh, I think. Yeah, I like John from college. But yes. And I've been in the pool a lot lately. And I'm trying to, you know, I'm trying to hit that Olympics for the, for the age over height below, you know, the whole thing. I can just get it right. Um, speaking of diet, Jim, not hurting Shaq. I got opened up 16%. Shaq's amazing. The high end burger did well. The numbers were very, very good. Uh, congratulations to them. That was just a really excellent quarter. And unexpected given what we've heard, what we heard from McDonald's, which is obviously doing this nationwide experiment for the five dollar. Uh, I, I have to tell you that I thought that Wendy's was going to miss really Ben. They didn't, but 5.8% yield. Kind of interesting Wendy's. They get it together. It'd be really great. What do you got? What do you got there? Huh? What you got for me? You got nothing? I got a lot for you. Whatever you'd like. I don't know. What's the like? What role has Steel's not going to get done any time soon. The arbitration got pushed back to May of next year. Which one? Chevron Hess. Oh yeah, that thing's just, what the heck was my thinking? What is my thinking? What is my thinking? What is my thinking? Following for quite some time between Chevron and Exxon. How about Signal Week? Signal like Humana? Over the Guyana property and the right of first refusal. We've discussed it many times. But the arbitration that they are going to, that pushed to May of 2025. And then you'll get a decision perhaps in the following three months. So this thing, while they say they're remain committed to the merger, and look forward to combining the two companies, it's going to take them a long time. Unless, of course, they get a bad result in arbitration. In which case, then they got real trouble. Well, I know you're very close to that. I wonder whether they knew that going into this, this could be the nightmare. I'm going to, I'll get one for, for David. This isn't, this isn't good one. David, do you know the stock how I met your mother? Because it's the number one stock that I bought. I don't know how I met your mother's. It's called how met. How much? Because Ben Stoto, who's our chief scientist for Mad Money, who's saying, "Listen, call this how I met my mother." And the stock again hits a new high. This is a faster company for planes and forgies for planes. It's the old Alcoa. It is the how I met your mother is the number one performing stock in my lexicon. It's up almost a hundred percent over the last 12 months. Well, because they've got the, they, there's two million screws in a seven, 87. It's a lot of screws. Two million screws. That's a lot of, whole lot of screws. Yeah. To our point yesterday, Jim, about industrials leading against CH Robinson, Air Products, Cummins, FMC. I have Cummins on tonight. You do. And I salute them. They have 70,000 natural gas trucks. They have, oh man, this is fantastic. I'm so glad we have them. They are just a technology machine. And people regard engines as like, are you give me a break? But they have engines that can run on any, Gen Rumsy has engines that can run on any fuel. Whatever you need. Yeah. This is the new economy writ large. And that company is a, just, people think you can't make money in signals, that you can only make money in tech. That's a tech machine. Back to how many for a second was it? Precision cast parts. Were they in that business too? That's owned by Berkshire. Yeah. Well, they're forgies. Yeah. Although people said it's not doing that. Well, if you ever, I think at this point the cycle is probably going to be very well. By the way, if Boeing can get its act together, we're going to get like, I have a percent GDP here. Yeah. Boeing, the worst doubt stock at the moment. But big news regarding the new CEO yesterday. Look, I think that Boeing has cash flow issues. That's kind of what, I mean, you know, I'm not saying they're in Trump and they're saying that they would do better if they raised a lot of money. That would be like if God said they raised money. I just say that. They don't want to do it. I didn't say it. Jim, a lot of geopolitics swirling around crude. Yes. Some discussion this morning about Brent Call options. The highest yesterday and several months. Well, I think that the people who buy, unless they really think that there's going to be an event, they have to recognize that we have companies in our country that are just begging for that thing to go up two bucks so they can make their quarter. So I just think that people don't know we're running below what we could at the Permian. There are people who say that's because the Permians being tapped out. No, there are a lot of companies that are just waiting for prices to go up a little and then it's boom. So that's what's going to happen. So you do think there is a ceiling on what would come out of it? Yeah. Unless it's a sudden shock overnight, these companies will be able to meet it. By the way, natural gas too. Natural gas is just like, okay, we've got tons. We have much more than we can use. And I've got to tell you, I see this stuff and I just say to myself, why do people even fool around with these stocks unless there's an event, unless there's an event because wow, do we have a lot of oil, a lot. Well, natural gas is, yeah. That pretty interesting. And that may play into the larger energy question that we've been discussing for some time in terms of providing enough power for all of these data centers that are yet to be built. Yes, right. We're going to need enormous amounts of power. Wind is going to be much more efficient chip from Nvidia. Why do you completely bought into my rap? No, I'm well aware of the power issues. No, you put in my rap that-- I just argued with you on the day when you came in and said they were going to buy a electric company. I think that, no, I said they're going to buy a Nat Gas company if they were smart. You know what, they're hard to write. You said in that gas company. Apparently, we're talks. Now, you could say they were talks. Jim, you said that they were talks. I don't make stories up and you don't make stories up. I try not to. It's a bad question. I think I still do. And they get away with it. What is that all about? I don't know. I don't know. You know what? W Wayfair to merge with our age. I mean, hey, let's just float that and see if it gets picked up. No, I don't care. Someone will say I really mean that, Carl. I didn't mean that. It's having a decent morning and video shares continue. That momentum created from yesterday to stock up another 1.85%. Obviously, we talked a lot about that at the top of the program. Those shares have sustained an almost-- excuse me, 9% gain. And Amazon, up another 1.5% ahead of the printer. I don't know. I cut it. I want people who never listened to a CompScore Reddit. The first thing we should go to is Zuckerberg. Zuckerberg has gone from these very spartan, no, you know, flower, flowery talk to a fabulous CompScore. A well-orchestrated CompScore the way Nike was before it fell apart. Yes. One thing we didn't mention, Jimmy, no crowd strike was such an important story for Tech last month where these comments out of Sentinel-1 saying that it was not an honest mistake, that it was a bad design. That was down another percent today. I read that last night, and that was one of the most fiery attacks that I have read of one company versus another. It was speaking about Tomer Winegarten, what he said in Sentinel-1, what he said about Kurtz, and what he said about crowd strike was just incredible. And I know I thought the crowd strike at the bottom. I didn't know that you'd have someone like Tomer just after these guys. I'm really down, I haven't seen the company called out by another company in a long time. Well, it represents a real opportunity for them to take market share, right? So why not press your advantage? It is, I would say that when I read it, I had to read it twice because it was, it was just so negative. It came out, I had it on my Insta. You know, it's, he says, Sentinel-1 CEO of crowd strike, not just but, and it goes in, and he just basically says that, I would say that he calls it not an honest mistake. But that means Delta, I'm taking the derivative here. Delta says they lost 500 million, okay? You called Tom on the witness stand. It's bad. I mean, Tomer might be an expert witness, Sentinel-1. That sounds like he might be a little biased. I'm not sure I'd allow him. Because he's chief competitor? He's not sure I'd allow him for that. Okay, I'm just, I'm just pointing it out. Jim, I don't have you seen these charts this morning of Met, all state and Aflac, all setting new highs for the year. You know, one of the great results. Look, a lot of people stayed away from this group, including Chub, which is my favorite, because people said, you know what? They're not going to do as well when rates come down. Well, you know what? That was just a dumb call. These companies are really AI-oriented. I keep moving, David, you like this progressive. It is the one company, Flow. It's Flow, that uses AI instantly to just prices. Flow. Flow. Yeah. I'm saying, yes. PMI does not go with the program, man. You endless ads. What? From Flow. No, they, progressive is the one that changes prices instantly. And the guy's name is? No idea. No idea. No idea. He's featured even more now. Yes. Jake. I don't think Jake uses it. I'd be a little more concerned. What's the thing? Jake uses AI as much as Flow. Jake? Jake, from State Farm? I don't know. I think that Flow's got the AI cornered, and Jake ought to spend some time reading Zuckerberg's conference call. And get some Raybans. Jamie. Jamie. That's it, right? Another 40-point gain for the S&P. Manufacturing PMI's out a couple of moments ago. Let's get to Rick Santelli. Hey, Rick. Hi, Carl. Indeed. These are the final reads for S&P Global on the Manufacturing PMI. Remember, two weeks ago, this number came out at 49.5, weakest of the year, while it moves up to 10, final read 49.6. But it still remains the weakest level under 50 since the end of last year. And by the way, last year, 10 of the 12 readings were under 50. So not necessarily a very good read here, and I do want to point out the Bank of England for the first time since 2020, cut rates to 5% and gave very little guidance. And I will give you some guidance. And don't touch that remote. Squawk on the street will return after a short break. Caravana shares a rising surprise, a large profit, and a terrific guide. Caravana founder and CEO Ernie Garcia, usually many, or many, many times, joins us first on CNBC now. And I know that I have to join Adam Jonas in almost saying congratulations, Ernie. He tried, he had to hold back because it was such a great quarter. Thank you for coming on the show. Thanks for joining us. Really appreciate it. All right. So let's go to this line that is so antithetical to the industry that you're in or that it almost feels like you're not in the same industry. It is very rare to be both the fastest growing and most profitable company in a category. That I think people should understand that there's only been one way to make money in this business. When you sell so many cars and you try to do it with ribbon gross margins, you're not doing that at all, are you? Yeah. So Jim, you know, we started this company 11 years ago and we decided to build something that was totally different. And that meant a completely different supply chain. It meant a ton of investment. Over the last 11 years, we've invested about $10 billion in trying to build a completely different supply chain. And all that fixed cost investment is now coming back and paying off and it's showing up in much lower variable costs. And so it means that we can give customers a great experience. We can grow really quickly and efficiently. And then we can also hit these really exciting milestones like having the best or the most profitable quarter of any automotive retailer ever. So we're extremely excited about all that. Sold over 100,000 cars in Q2. That makes you right there almost at the top, doesn't it? We're number two right now, but our sites are set much, much higher. So we'll keep going. Okay, so you have an offering that's being done and it wasn't really clear to me. I know it's some of your stock, but I thought that was most interesting. Maybe you can give us the number. Is that you list as one of the risk factors, short sellers, making up stuff about you. Is that still a problem? You know, you've been through our risk factors in more detail than I have. It sounds like so. I think probably, you know, well, there are stories out there. There's always going to be stories. That is what it is. We don't focus too much on that. I think we always just try to keep our heads down and keep moving forward. I think, you know, there's that old famous saying, you know, in the short run, the stock market is a voting machine and the long runs a weighing machine. So we're working on building mass and we'll keep doing that. Hurts has an interesting story today. They're accelerating them, selling of all the inventory. Yes, Tesla's in large part. Are you a buyer of used Tesla's and are they selling well? Sure. So, I mean, let me answer that question a little more broadly. I think, you know, we sell kind of the cars that Americans love. You know, we look at what customers are buying. We buy those from customers and at auction and then we recondition them. We get them ready for sale. We sell them to our customers. That means, you know, we're selling equinoxes. We're selling Jeep Grand Cherokees. You know, we're selling all the cars of you to expect escapes. But it also means, you know, we attract customers a little bit younger, a little more affluent. So we do just proportionally sell EVs. We have a higher market share in EVs than we do in ICE. And so our top selling car is Tesla Model 3. So we do sell a lot of those as well. But in general, we're trying to make sure that buying a car is easy and fun for our customers and we're giving them what they want. There was a moment on the comps called near the end where someone said, "Look, you say that you love your customers. Are you going to cut them in for more of the profits now that you're making money?" And I think people should listen to your answer because actually, I still think that you're true to the customer more than you are to anybody else. Yeah, you know, I think something that's always true of every company when you start is you have to build something that's better for customers or you have no chance. I think it'd be really easy for companies as they age and mature to focus on, you know, margins or this financial number, that financial number. But at the end of the day, all that really matters is that your customers want your product more than anyone else, or anyone else's product. And so I think, you know, we're really focused on continuing to make gains. We've made enormous gains in the last year. We improved our unit economics for about $2,000 while holding our customer offering flat. That's pretty incredible. And I think if we can continue to do that, it means that we're going to have a lot of gains to give back to customers to further separate our offering. And I think that's the dream. We want to build a great company, want our customers to love what they get. You know, Ernie, looking at a chart of the stock, we all remember before the turnaround took place, shares got very, very inexpensive, a lot of doubts, a lot of headlines about near-death experiences. Was there anything about that time that fundamentally changed the way you think about running the business? You know, I'm going to tell a brief story if it's okay. I think, you know, we started this company in 2013 and we launched out of Phoenix, Arizona. You know, we were capital intensive. We had a finance arm. That didn't fit the venture capital pattern. We really struggled to raise venture capital. As a result, we went public after just four years. That's very early in a company's life to go public. You know, for the first part of that, I don't think we were that well-received. You know, we were one of the worst IPOs of 2017. We came out at 15 bucks. We were down to eight bucks a couple weeks in. By 21, people thought we were on to something. And so that was a nice brief moment. And then, you know, car prices went up. Rates went up. We made a big bet on our future in finance with debt. Investor perspectives changed quite a bit in '22. And our stock went down 99%. And that's not part of the dream. That's not something you foresee. That's not something you imagine. And in those moments, unfortunately, I think a reality is people will line up to kick you when you're down. And so, you know, you wake up every morning and you read the articles and you see the news. And then line up. People do, unfortunately, line up. If you want to make a friend for life, go extend your hand when someone's having a tough time and it will really help. But I think the people inside Carvana, they responded incredibly well. And for that, I will be forever grateful. Because in those moments, I think the biggest risk is that people decide to give up. And the people in Carvana came together. We did our best work. You know, one of our values has always been we're in this together. But that's an easy thing to write on a wall. It's a hard thing to make true. And in moments like that, you get tested. And the people of Carvana have done an incredible job. And so to all of you, thank you so much. You did this. Okay, so, Ernie, I mean, I think about, you know, I bought a car. I mean, I bought a car from you guys for somebody and they didn't like the car. And I returned it. The stock was in three bucks. This is a win. You got to love the stock. But you also had help. Didn't you? You had some people from a big private equity company came in to help you. So I mean, I think early on, you know, we had some great investors. You know, along the way, we had a lot of investors that stuck with us and believed in us. We've certainly had interactions with different debt holders and everything that have been very supportive. So I think, you know, these things never happen alone. That's just not how it works. I think building anything is always a battle. It's always harder than you imagine up front. And I think you got to get a little lucky along the way. It's just not going to happen. But we've been lucky to catch a couple breaks. And I think, you know, we've been very lucky to accumulate a team that's been very resilient and been able to fight. And so I'm just extremely proud and extremely grateful. And I think we have a lot left to do. Oh, I keep that humility, Ernie, because I know when you were down, you came on air. Hey, you didn't talk to us. You came right on air. And you did the right thing. I want to thank, Ernie, I've got to tell you, you saw, if you guys ever bought one of these cars? Ernie Garcia, he's the CEO of a car vaud. And I'm just laughing because the person I bought the car for said, "I don't really like that." In the old days, you had to eat it. I said, "Hey, come pick up this car. I don't want this car." And they came up and didn't. I didn't know any money. It was pretty many. All right, thanks to Ernie. Jim, you're going to stick around for Renee Haas. Hey, I got top him, man. Of ARM 10 year 4.008, don't go anywhere. You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the Street. All opinions expressed by the Squawk on the Street participants are solely their opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC, Universal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by them on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed on this podcast as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of an opinion. Such opinions are based upon information Squawk on the Street participants consider reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Squawk on the Street disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/squawkonthestreetdisclaimer. 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