The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 7.05pm eastern on Saturday, August 3rd, we've got some pretty wicked storms flowing through this area, so my power's been going on and off, this is the second time I've tried recording this, so bear with me here. I'm going to be kind of blazing through this, I don't have too many crazy thoughts on this slate anyway, I'm just going to mostly read off the patreon post for this since I'm dealing with a difficult situation at the moment, with this power going on and off. As of right now, we're in the middle of the Immortals 100 Thieves series, I cannot believe Immortals through that game 1, but say I love you, that's the way it goes. Before the LCS starts, we do have a stake on Immortals to take a map, and that's when we need them to win this game 2. Prior to that, we ended up -1.24 units on the day, T1, probably 90% to win that first game this morning, and just couldn't get enough done with the two barons, just Genji played incredible defense in this, they did just enough to pick off and stop momentum and kind of like use the jab to prevent T1's advance, if that makes sense to use a boxing analogy here. Just a couple, there was a couple rough mechanical misplays from Faker, he missed the Valkyrie over the wall, had a couple other weird, you know, hands-diff situations. We don't know Faker as a hands, like, insanely good hands player, not anymore at this point in his career. His decision-making was on point in this series, but he made a couple, you know, mechanical errors that mattered. Guillsey was kind of the opposite, he was a stud hands player in this series, but he was just really, really - he looked tilted in the second game. Understandably so, like, T1 entire, like, looked really, really frustrated as a team after the first game. The second game in this series, Guillsey, there were like two or three situations, especially toward the end, where Guillsey just way overplayed, way, way overzealous, clearly a little bit tilted. I mean, you can visibly see the frustration mounting with a lot of these teams when they play against Genji, you know, after this first game owner was like shaking his head, like, pissed off shaking his head, like, you know, Faker was pretty, pretty pissed off as well today. Guomo was playing tilted as shit. You can kind of tell that Genji are getting under people's skin. These were two, like, the first game T1 should've won. I thought they were like 90% to win that first game. The second game, they had, they had advantages where, you know, it was pretty close. It was like a coin flip game, the second game, and they just - Genji were perfect. I mean, it was weird. This was a weird one too because the second game, Chovie, or the first game, Chovie had, like, a game - what I thought could've been a game ending mistake going in on Zari into four people with CC up, which was just, like, stupid. I haven't seen him make a genuinely stupid decision in a long, long time. And it still didn't matter. So yeah, Genji's a wagon. I don't know what else to say. I don't think this was the wrong - I mean, obviously the way these games played out, I don't think it was the wrong bet. Like, it was pretty clear that that was a good bet, even though it didn't win. Sometimes that's the way it goes. Furex completely dumpster DRX kind of figured that was going to happen. DRX sprinted a few extra kills, kind of a little fountain nonsense, ended up losing us the under in the first game because, you know, a little fiddle-fucking around. It was a no-sweating game too though, so we ended up cashing, like, I think we were up net, like, a quarter in that one between the two plus-money alt-unders. Yeah, the first series - the LPL series is the other one. Back to back, like, wire-to-wire wins for LGD, just complete stompings. Invictus clawed it back in game three. They had a stomp win in game three. Game four probably should have been the series for LGD. I think they have, like, a 4,300 gold leader, so it was something like that. The 25-minute mark, which is not, like, unbeatable, but that's statistically significant. Ballooned a pretty good lead there, but they, kind of, threw it all away, and Invictus forced the game five. Game five was looking okay for LGD to start. This was kind of a coin flip through the first 15, and, you know, they made a couple mistakes. LGD punished them for it and closed this game with a 3-2 win. This easily could have been a 3-1, but ended up being a hell of a series this morning. Not exactly super high-level play, but it was kind of cool to see clean wins from these teams. That's not something either of them have done particularly well this season, especially LGD, so it was actually good to see them have some clean wins in this match. That's maybe a good omen moving forward for them, but we'll see. We are through the first LCS match. Dignitas kind of picked, you know, picked up the fumble from our energy in game one who, they just threw, they should have won this game. I think game two is a wire-to-wire win for Dignitas, so yeah, it's bottom tier LCS, as I've talked about. I don't see them now. I don't think any of these teams are any good. Can't really trust any of them as big favorites. I know Immortals just threw this game before I'm recording this, which sucks, but is what it is. I think you just got to kind of hold your nose and take the big underdog when you see them. We'll see how that match goes. I'll talk about that later on tonight. I'm going to be doing the LCS as a separate show because I don't, one, markets are not for it yet. And then two, like again, my power keeps going on and off, so I'm just trying to get as much done as I can here. All right, let's go in actual chronological order here. We're going to do the LCK first. We have okay, Breon Savings Bank plus 819 on the money line plus 1/2, minus 1/2 is that plus 1697 against the KT roller coaster, roller coaster minus 1371 on the money line, minus 1/2, minus 2/44, model made this plus 2/90, minus 3/23. Obviously, like the Breon Sides also flagged, Breon First Blood is a light play as well. Breon will have side choice for this series. So what's our rule with KT Rolls-Drive? It pinned to the top of these Sports Department Discord channel. What is our rule? We back KT as big underdogs and we fade them as big favorites. KT, I know they've looked good. I know they just got a series off Hamwa. That was very impressive. They looked really, really good. We've seen a couple ceiling games from them recently. They're looking more like they're spring selves, but if they're looking more like they're spring selves, what was our rule? Back them as big dogs fade them as big favorites. This is a super volatile team. Underlying still suggests that this team isn't good. Even if you just look at their last five series, they're still below average team, like even with the win over Hamwa, even beating a couple good teams, this is not a particularly special team. So please keep that in mind. Underlying still suggests that they're not good. So I'm not buying it with KT Rollster. Teams that are not good. I don't care who they're playing against. Teams that are not good or not minus 1,300 against anybody. I know Breon Savings Bank sucks. They're a bad team. They're not good this season, but this is like their Alamo. This is their last stand if they want to do anything. You got a bunch of players on this team and coaches that are playing for jobs for next year at this point, and this is it for them. I know they've been a bit of an Eeyore. They don't put up a fight a lot of the time, but if they're ever going to, this is it. And I just simply don't trust KT Rollster as a favorite. So get the puke bucket ready, hold your nose, close your eyes, and just take Breon. This is a huge number. I played Breon plus one and a half massive plus 195 for one unit. And I'm going to sprinkle on the Breon series Moneyline 0.1 units for at plus 819. This is not pretty. Just understand that this is not likely to win. I just think it's more likely to win than the odds are implying, which is all the handicapping is. So I've lead to kill total overs here too, but it's correlated enough to Breon that I don't want to double dip on that. So I also think that's that's live to lose if KT do in fact steamroll this series like the market is saying that they're going to. I just don't trust KT as this big a favorite against anybody. So that's all this is. Second match in the LCK is kind of an interesting one. Two teams on the bubble for playoffs here. Quandang freaks minus 266 on the Moneyline minus one half is at plus 124. The plus one half is at minus 815 against the non-chim red force noodle boys plus two 11 on the Moneyline plus one half is at minus 151. The minus one half is at plus 548. Model made this minus 168 plus 152 likes non-chim sides for that very reason. Also flag the under one and a half barons in the under 31 minutes. I'll talk more about that in a little bit. Quandang don't have side choice for this series. Quandang have been struggling quite a bit of late. They had that really disappointing loss to Breon. That's like the third time that Breon's gotten this team this year which is kind of fucking hilarious but anyway. After that they had to face Hamua Genji and D+ in order which is just a brutal stretch of schedule. You could argue they're the three best teams right now. They got smoked in the first two really they got smoked in games one and three against D+ but they did manage to steal a blown game from D+ in there for game two. There is a bit of a pulse here from Quandang. They've been just in a constant downtrend most of the year too but they are coming off of a really difficult stretch of schedule and this is going to be kind of their first softball in a little bit here. Non-chim have kind of fallen off as well. As the season has turned on we frequently see with these kind of weaker teams that the churn of the patches and everybody else making adaptations and picking up on what they're doing, bad teams tend to have a tough time continuing to innovate and adjust and progress as the season goes on. Good young teams will continue to progress especially good young players. I was kind of optimistic that Non-chim might be that it turns out that they haven't been. This team hasn't had a lead of any size at 20 minutes since week two against DRX. This is the week's we're at the second match of week seven. We're going on almost two months since they've had a lead at 20 minutes. The thing with this match is this is another kind of like hold your nose special. These are two incredibly disappointing teams. I think Kwang Dang had been clearly better but it's just a matter of like how much better. Both these teams have very very few leads at 20 minutes. They're almost always playing from a deficit. They almost never blow open huge leads when they do get them so really this is kind of a question of like if you have these two teams that don't consistently blow leads open, how much better can one really be than the other one. I kind of am in line with the model on this one. I think this is two months ago I probably would have taken Kwang Dang at this price but they've just done nothing but get worse and worse and worse. Even factoring in their difficult schedule of late, I actually took those games out of the sample and it made this minus 200 which is still short so I'm going to take a stab on Non-chim here. I don't like the series money a lot as much because Kwang Dang have side choice but this is kind of like a last-hand match. Both these teams really need this win. Non-chim are essentially done for the year if they lose this match Kwang Dang or two matches back from the six-play off-seeds. So I'd expect a game effort for both. I'm expecting a kitchen sink kind of performance from Non-chim. I like them to take a game here plus one and a half maps at minus 151 for one unit. Or looking at the LPO, we have our second of the knockout stage matches. We have ninjas and pajamas minus 142 on the money line minus one and a half is at plus 152, the sweep is at plus 440, the plus one and a half is at minus 310 against rare atom plus 110 on the money line plus one and a half is at minus 199, the minus or plus two and a half is at minus 709, the minus one and a half is at plus 227, the minus two and a half the underdog sweep is at plus 647. Model made rare atom a big favorite in this contest, made this a minus 207 fair. Yeah that's a little surprising but when you factor in that this is just like yesterday where you have a team that's faced a much more difficult schedule versus a team that's faced a much easy schedule versus a difficult schedule, this is cross-conference play. So keep that in mind here, you have to give a bump to an IP and a nerf to rare atom for those very reasons. That said, if you look at the full sample, full season sample for these two teams, the agnostic economy is actually quite a, you know, not that much different. And rare atom had kind of a tricky group to open the season as well, set it at an IP. I don't think these two teams are that far apart from one another but ultimately what this handicap comes down to is, is this is NIP closer to a best of the worst or a worst of the best? Do you believe that there is a true middle tier in the LPL? Do you think that these teams that are in like that eight to 12 range are all truly a mid tier or are they all kind of just one big clump? Like is this like a B tier or is this more like all these teams are C tier and we're kind of determining whether it's like C plus or C minus. It's kind of what you have to figure out here because if you think it's the latter, then this is kind of just like take the dog and hold your nose. If you think that there is a clear difference between these two teams and that you think that the worst teams in that upper conference are going to be more battle tested, more better practice, et cetera, then you should probably lean toward the NIP side of things. I'll just caution. I don't, I don't have, I'm not taking a side in this match. I actually think this is a pretty close to fair market. Rare Adam have looked really, really good at times and then other times I think they've looked really suspect against much weaker competition. NIP, I just kind of know who they are. They're a team with some good players with some dogshit macros. So like there's a chance in this series that we just see like rookie step up and just be a baller and just hard carry the series. He's clearly the best player in this entire match. I think it's very possible that we just see the hands diff matter in this contest, but rare Adam has some talent as well. Rare Adam have beaten good teams as well, teams that are better than NIP. I think this is probably close to a fair enough price. Like I just, the thing you have to understand with rare Adam is that they are a name brand value team. They're like the Dallas Cowboys. They're just always going to be overrated because they've got some good players on their team. Players that people know, players that have had good careers, players that have played on good teams almost entirely for their careers, but this team is not very good. They have bad macro. They have poor decision making. They just have to hands diff you in snowball a game or they don't win any kind of situation where they're going to be having to make difficult decisions. They're going to lose. So you just have to know who you're getting in bed with here. I would lean to the RA side of things. I would also lean to kill total overs just purely from a qualitative standpoint because I think these games are going to be kind of potentially back and forth shit shows. I don't know. We'll see. I didn't ultimately play anything in this one. No derivatives. No sides slightly into the RA side. If you made me pick something that's going to be it for me. I'll be back to later on tonight or early tomorrow morning with the LCS.
