The Jon Sanchez Show
08/05- Why are market’s selling off?
In the Home Depot, we have to take a look at the main construction of the Lebres-Poristante. We have to take a look at the main construction of the Lebres-Poristante. The main construction of the Lebres-Poristante is the main construction of the Lebres-Poristante. The Home Depot has his mass, logo has mass. Tia, welcome to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780KOH. It's a pleasure to be with you on our new time. Great to be with you. And great to be with my partner, Mr. Jason Gone and Sanchez Wealth Management. Jay, what a day to start off our new time spot, a global zone. How do we like that? Could we have planned that any better? I was going to say, if there's any correlation to this new time spot... Exactly. It's going to three in the market being down three percent. Yeah, we're going back. We're going back, we're going back, people. We're going back. [laughter] Oh my goodness. Well, again, we welcome all of you. Thank you for joining us. I know a lot of you are used to making a lot of phone calls into Greg's Show, Reno Talks Live. We would love to continue that moment. My goodness, if you have any questions on today's sell-off or anything related to finances, we are here for you. We're going to be here for you. We are here now 852 talk or 1-800-564KOH. Normally, we have a financial planning topic that we cover on Mondays if you're new to our show. We've been on KOH going way back to the early 2000s, so a few thousand shows behind us. But we normally do a market recap for the first half hour of the show, and then we get into our topic. But tonight, because as we're alluding to, because of the major market movement and probably the damage, unless you were fortunate enough to be shorting this market or you had a bunch of cash, you probably are looking at your wounds like everybody at this particular time. And you're wondering what the heck do I do now? And that'll be one of the goals Jason and I try to accomplish for you tonight is to really focus down as to, first of all, what is going on? What happened today to cause this thousand plus point loss on the Dow Jones Industrial Average? What happened today to cause the global markets to sell-off? And we're going to go through all that. We'll go through some of the damage. We'll look at the bond market, so on and so forth. And then really kind of get down to the point, what we need to be doing right now, because this market has a lot of cross-currents, Jason. It's kind of like a salmon swimming upstream right now. It's just getting a little bit tired and moving forward, but it's a slow go forward at this point. So with that said, let's start off with what the heck happened today, and then we'll start moving into some of the details of it. Yeah. I mean, today, I'd say more so what started happening last night, right? You had the Nikkei in Japan, we'll back up even farther. The conversation around this carry trade, if anybody has heard of listen to us or heard others talk about it, what the heck is it? A short and sweet is basically you're borrowing in a currency that doesn't cost you a whole heck of a lot, which historically was the yen, where you would borrow yen and then go out and buy other stuff with it. You can buy US tech stocks, or you could just buy US dollars and buy US bonds, right? And that was the trade that's been going on forever. I mean, honestly, mom and pop in Japan with their currency losing value and only getting paid 0% interest rates. They were incentivized by and large to go out and do this. And so they would sell their currency and buy others. Well, we kind of jokingly, I saw a chart today of the volatility index and the three biggest spikes in the last 30 years, one of them was the tech bubble. One of them was COVID. And this one jokingly was Japan raises interest rates by 25 basis points, like it seems like not a big deal overall, but ultimately what this caused is sort of lit fire to this trade, no pun intended, where there was a massive unwind that caused at its extreme last night, the Nikkei in Japan was literally down 12% triggers, so on and so forth. And that caused the weakness we've seen over the last two weeks that was, I'd say, anchored by a less than expected jobs number on Friday, I'm not even going to call it a bad one. It was just not glowing and that just sort of created this, oh my gosh, now we're in some massive recession, whereas three weeks ago, literally we were like the feds needs to raise interest rates because inflation's too high. And so the market, unfortunately, is very fickle. But as I talked to John offline and on the show, macro trades hurt the most, right? These are the ones of what the heck is going on. It's not like Apple blew up or there was a negative jobs number that freaked everyone out. This was just something that can continue to go on because you never know how big anything is. But the market unwound, hedge funds have been suffering quite a bit, but typically when you see a market down 12% on what seems more like massive capitulation, US markets held that level, the down 3% level through most of the day, looks like futures are green here after the close. It feels like the end is nigh, but you know, you never know. But yeah, overall, this is just a macro unwind that has sort of spilled over into all things and US markets were not spared for sure. Yeah, but I think, I mean, you said let's go back to last night. Let's even go back to last week, as you said, on Friday, right? We had 114,000 jobs created. That was below the monthly average of a little over 200,000 we've enjoyed for the last 12 months. But you and I both know. And again, if you missed our show on Friday, you know, listen to pick it up at your favorite podcast distributor because we went into great detail about that. I think that was kind of the cherry on the Sunday, right? We'd had a rough week overall. Most of the major averages were down. The NASDAQ went into correction territory. Remember, correction territory is defined as a pullback from the high of 10% or more. And we experienced that on the NASDAQ and we were flirting with that on some of the other major averages so that week jobs report was really just kind of the, like I said, the cherry on the Sunday. But what that did Friday, as Jason and I discussed, is it brought this word out that hasn't come out of my mouth or his mouth or probably any of your mouths in quite some time. And that is the word recession, right? And so you look at what happened again and you know, it's way above and beyond, you know, so many people to understand this carry trade and all that just know that the Nikkei, you know, major global market, which it was just doing phenomenal up until what maybe a last month or two, you know, they suffered over a 4,000 point loss down 12.4% close at 31,458. So, you know, here, here we are at 38,703 on our Dow there at 31,458. Just think about that for a second. Imagine if the Dow lost, you know, roughly 3,000 points in one day, your head would be spinning at this point, right? And so back to the situation about the potential word of recession. And so Jason, you know, I think now we need to, as we're going to kind of go through our list as to what happened. So we can, you know, check the box on Japan and then that transcended into some pretty good selling in the European markets, German DAX down 1.82%. But bringing it back home, you know, we talked about this thing called recession and I think a lot of people don't really understand what it is, but folks remember this, investors can talk themselves into a recession and that is a very nasty thing to happen because we will never know for sure if we're in a recession until long afterwards. Usually, economists will come out, what would you say, four to six months afterwards, right around there? All right. Yeah. And then formally say, oh, we were in a recession, you know, you know, six months ago. Now you can say recession is defined by, you know, two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. That's a real easy one, but really no one pays that much of attention to it anymore. But when you start throwing out around the word recession, the real damaging effect is again, the psychological side of it, right? If I sit here and I tell Jason, Jason, we are in a recession. Jason, what's the first thing you're going to do if you're just the average, you know, hardworking man out there, what are you going to do as far as you're going to be afraid of your job? You're going to be afraid of your job. You're going to stop spending and so on and so forth. Exactly. So multiply that times 300 plus million people in this country, you know, half of those are invested in the stock market and all of a sudden things begin to slow down. Now, you brought up an excellent point where we're strategizing for our portfolios today. You brought up an excellent point I want to hit on and that is, you know, if you're sitting back right now and you're hearing, you know, again, this damage that was done in the market and you're hearing this word recession and you're thinking about, is my job safe? What are we, what are you going to be doing with your personal finances at this point? You're going to get more conservative. So maybe you're going to give second thought to going out and buying that car or maybe going them by that rental property, whatever it is that you do with your money, you're going to be given that a second thought. And the point you brought up was folks, this is exactly what the Fed want. Jerome Powell's got to be sitting back in his office with a big fat smile on his face right now saying, ha, ha, I got you. All of you thought I was too late to the party. This is what we want as the Fed. We want the economy to slow down. Well, he got what he wanted. Yeah. And I mean, again, you know, I don't want to paint the picture of the Fed as evil, right? I mean, but unfortunately, their job is to, you know, create price stability and also counteract unemployment issues, right? And so as they've talked about quite a bit, the biggest focus has been the price part. The unemployment part was not a factor. We were at generationally low unemployment levels, right? And they didn't have to worry about that at all. And so as we've talked about quite a bit, coming off of those levels, no matter what, you know, you can only go higher, right? I mean, yeah, but we're going to zero percent unemployment, like it's not going to happen. Right. And so the tough part is the move from 3.5% to now 4.3 seems like, oh my gosh, things are terrible. And again, if you lost your job, it's terrible. But we're going back to normal. Like that's the part that I'm trying to stress as much as possible is that, you know, you don't have to say that coming from where we were to where we are currently is, you know, everything's collapsing in a vacuum. It's not true. It's just more of the concern of how much further could it go because historically these types of chain rate of change tend to go hand in hand with a recession. You also need to some extent think of where we were coming from. That's the part that I at least want to try to stress a bit, not to say we won't have a recession, because if you put a gun to my head, I think in the next 12 to 18 months, we probably do have one, whether we're in one now or we're in one a year from now. It just seems that signs point in that direction. But again, you know, after the fact more often than not, and you just want to maybe take a second to say, is the world really ending or are we coming out of a bit of a euphoria? Exactly. Yeah. I want to continue this recession. I've got a few comments I want to mention on top of yours. Let's turn it over to Kristin Snow's sheet is in the right now, traffic center. Hey, Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Talk 780KOHH with Jason Gunner, Sanchez Wolf Management. All right. We're describing and helping you get through today's very, very tough session. Here's the damage that was done today that we're going to get back to the causes of it. We finished down 1034 points on the Dow. That was a 2.6% loss for the Dow to close at 38,703. Nasdaq lost 576 points, 3.43%, closing at 16,200. SB lower by 160 points, a 3% decline finished the day at 5,186. Now, if we turn things over to the commodity side of things, not all that bad, about a 7/10 of a percent loss on oil, 73.08 a barrel. Those safe haven play in gold today, $25.40 lost, close to 2,444.40 an ounce, and down one basis point on the 10-year treasury, you know, Jason, this 10-year treasury, I got to refresh my yields real quick, 10-year treasury somewhat behaved itself today, you know, considering, I mean, it was only a one-basis point decline finished at 3.79. Lord knows we have seen enough bigger moves in this and quite some time, but again, they didn't plow into the bonds, which of course drives those yields down today. So that was, I think, one of the positives of today. Yeah, I mean, an interesting thing too, right? The 2s and 10s were for a period of time darn near-equal each other, right? So that's something where people start to talk about the yield curve and it being upward, sloping again. Remember, typically it's the negative or the inverted yield curve that is your signal of an upcoming recession, and then the signal to move stage left and decrease risk in your portfolio is when the re-inversion or reversion happens as in rates get back to normal where short-term rates are lower than long-term rates, and that's playing into it as well. I did want to, real quick from one of our partners at Clark Capital, they had a really good note out today, and I just wanted to read you a quick paragraph from it. Essentially, just talking about all of this, right at the beginning of the year, we were calling for four rate cuts by the Fed to recalibrate policy. The market expectation of rate cuts have been all over the place this year, from 6.5 cuts to 1 cut. Now the market's pricing the equivalent of 4.5 cuts by the end of the year, the first one likely, again per what is implied, to be half a percent at the September 18th meeting. It's important to remember that markets are cyclical and corrections are normal. On average, the S&P has experienced three 5% corrections a year and a 10% decline once a year, a 15% decline every two years and 20% are greater bear market every three. From there, the major indices have behaved in a cyclical manner since the bear market lows of 22. There have now been four 5% or greater corrections in the S&P, one 10% correction. From its peak on 7/16, the S&P has declined 8.5% just so you know that. Small caps, large gap growth have corrected more than 10%. So I think the reason to point this out is that these are normal things. This is what happens in a market, a joke oftentimes with clients and say Bernie Madoff was the only person that didn't have real drawdowns and you need to know that markets don't just go straight up. The fact that the VIX spiked as much as it did and freaked everyone out as far as volatility is concerned, until some other shoe of some kind potentially drops, it feels like someone where the market doesn't really deal with a whole lot of drama for a while and it kind of threw a bit of a tantrum when it was like, "Wait a minute, I'm not used to any sort of pain." It sort of jumped to an extreme it feels like. Well, and this goes back to what we were saying on Friday, long before today's sell-off, and that is the markets can go through what we call a taper tantrum. We did it in 2018, if everybody remembers, had a heck of a year going on, December rolls around, Ben Bernanke, who was relatively new on the job at that point said, "Hey, I think it's time to be on paraphrasing. I think it's about time that we start raising interest rates Wall Street," he said, "No," he said, "Yeah, Wall Street," he said, "No." And before you know, you blinked an eye and we were down, if I remember correctly, close to 20%, we go into Christmas break, you know, we have a half day on Christmas Eve and a we're off Christmas Day and we come back and he changes his tune, said, "You know, basically you guys are right and we're not going to cut rates for the foreseeable future." The market rallied strong. I think it was like six or eight percent if I remember, just in the last few days of December. So yeah, this market can, I was telling the client today, Jason, it's, you know, the old adage, the, the tail's wagging the dog, and that is you get to a point, and I think I'm more concerned about it than you, based upon what you're saying, you get to a point where you start getting the global markets mixed into this whole thing, and that's when the ball really, you know, starts, you know, coming at you really, really fast, you know, if you're a batter, you know, the fast ball's coming at you really quick, because, you know, we had over a $6 trillion loss in global market value, and I think it's about the last week or so. It's significant. We've the magnificent seven, so that's your apples and googles, et cetera. Over a trillion dollar loss in the last week here at home. So you start talking trillions, it gets pretty significant, and that's why, you know, when we come back from the break, I want to talk about what is the possibility of an emergency interest rate cut? I mean, this is something that we need to talk about whether you agree with it or not. This should be something on everybody's radar, you know, what can happen when something like that does occur, because folks, we don't have a, as Jason just alluded to, we don't have a Fed meeting until September the 18th. I mean, that is an eternity from where we sit on August the 5th. So can this market really withstand that? Now let's go back to our comments, we're saying about a recession. So again, a recession, two consecutive quarters of GDP declined, but there's another mathematical formula Wall Street looks at, and that's why we never know until months and months after it actually happens. But the question we must ask ourselves, again, because investors can talk themselves into a recession. I've seen it many times. Jason has seen it. A recession really isn't all that bad of a thing. It's not that big of a deal when it's all said and done. It's more the hype leading up to it, or, you know, again, if we're in it, which again, we never know when we're exactly in it, you know, let's highlight real quick before we go to break. What does a recession really mean to Wall Street, Jay? Yeah. Well, I mean, again, it depends more on what type and where we're at. I mean, looking at the market, the S&P is all the way back to levels not seen since April. Right? Like, I mean, that's the part you need to have in context, like it feels crappy, you know, you know, it's not fun, nobody likes to lose money, you know, but I just, the tough part is, you know, it's part of, you know, this is part of the investing game. And the, as far as recession, Wall Street, you know, does all the things that you're used to. I mean, the fact that we get the market sell off, you know, new music on CNBC tends to be a positive in terms of close to capitulation. But yeah, I mean, Wall Street will start talking about all the negative of this, that, you know, world ending and, you know, so I do. Yeah. It does. I mean, and your, you know, Twitter timeline or whatever you choose for your social media that you ingest this information, they're going to get loud and noisy because they want you to click on their posts and so on and so forth too. And, you know, I'm not an eternal optimist. I just think that this time, there's a lot of, I'd say quantitative things going on that may not necessarily be signaling a upcoming recession. It just could be a massive unwind of maybe a fair amount of fluff that we've seen over the last couple months in tech and some of these areas that probably sets the, I mean, you know, Nvidia was 125 bucks. It got down to 90 something today, right? Like that's a real pullback that, you know, if you're an investor, those are opportunities you should be looking at. Absolutely. All right. Well, we continue our discussion. When we come back, what caused today's market self, what do you need to be doing with your money? That's what we'll discuss when we return. But first, I apologize. I don't know who we have in news today. No one told me. Who do we have? Oh, hey, Greg. How you doing? My man. How you doing? There you go. It is. Welcome back to the John Sanchez show on his talk, 780K, which was Jason gone with Sanchez wealth management. All right. We finished down 1034 points today, 2.6 as I gave up about 576 S&P down 160. We're laying out for you. What happened today? And then we'll kind of wrap things up with what you need to be doing with your money at this particular time. Again, nice way to have our inauguration 3 p.m. show a major market sell. There's lots of good things to talk about, which we had two hours. Hey, Greg, you know, can you just take off the first hour of your new show so we can go two hours tonight? Because we got so much to talk about. I don't know if we're going to be able to do it today. All right. Now we touched on, again, a number of factors. Let's kind of go back to the beginning of the show. We touched on, first of all, we woke up, Jason and I were in communication late last night watching the major selloff going on in Japan. Again, they suffered a massive loss in the Nikke 4451 points, about a 12.4% decline, very severe, worse to one day drop that they have experienced going all the way back to the day we all want to forget, which was the stock market crash of 1987, October of 1987. So that was one factor. The second factor is, again, going back to Friday, somewhat lackluster nonform payroll number, up 114,000 and all of a sudden the word recession started to come into everybody's vocabulary. Again, recession can be defined by a number of different ways, but the bottom line is, if you feel you're in a recession, you're not going to spend, and that's Wall Street's concern. Now, when we move into some of the other reasons behind this, Jason, the Fed, no, and you and I have discussed over and over again, many feel the Fed is behind the curve, right? Took them way too long to raise interest rates as the economy heated up post-COVID, but then the other side of it is, uh-oh, they're taking way too long to start cut rates, right? We had a Fed interest rate meeting last Wednesday and, you know, they know they're going to be cutting, but the streets interpretation was September, now there's almost 100% probability of a Fed interest rate cut, not of a quarter percent, but of a half a percent. Behind the curve, that is our, I guess, about our fourth reason for today's selloff. Yeah. I mean, again, it's how you define success, right? If the Fed's job is to make the S&P 500 go up potentially, right, if what they're trying to do is cause, you know, price inflation to firmly be inside the bottle, who knows, right? We don't, you know, ideally as long as inflation numbers continue to come down, and we haven't seen a sub 2% CPI print yet, right? So that's the thing too is, you know, it's a function of, right, maybe, yeah, right? But hopefully not. But I think, you know, that's part of it too, is what, you know, what is it that we're asking for asking this Fed to do, you know, if it's keep the stock market going up forever, then yeah, potentially that stimulus has been, is on the back burner. But they've talked about cutting in September, you know, probably a couple of times this year. It'll just be time before we find out when and why and if. Yeah. I mean, what really happens, of course, when the stock market experiences a, a surprise cut. I mean, there's, there's a number of scenarios, two scenarios are never the same because there's various reasons leading up to an emergency Fed cut. Now, I think you and I disagree, right? I haven't heard you say, yeah, I really agree with you as we've had public as well as private discussions that the Fed's going to give us a surprise cut. Let's start with you first. Do you think they're going to or not? I, I, I don't expect that they do unless something changes, like as far as where we are today, no, if high yield starts to blow out and we see bonds having massive troubles, right? Then yeah, something could certainly happen, banks talk about liquidity issues, those types of things. But the fact that the market, you know, the S and P's off eight percent from its highs and bonds, you know, you know, corporates and high yield, et cetera, haven't really flinched. No, I don't think that their, you know, role is to come in and bail out a market that's, you know, like it said back to April levels. Well, I would say their role is, but at the same time, common sense says they need to do something. I mean, again, here's my, I'm, this is what folks, if you're new to our show, this is what you're going to love about Jason and I, even though we're partners, we're the same firm. We do everything. We may even agree. Yeah, we're just saying this to be exciting. Exactly. Exactly. That's right. But when it comes to our clients, we always make one decision. Sometimes it's his. Sometimes it's mine, but yeah, we work together as a partnership on that. So here's my logic is, is we discussed on the show on Friday. So here you have an economy again, I'm going to go back to what I said a couple of segments ago. And that is when you start bringing in the global markets, now again, one day is no beginning of a trend. We may wake up tomorrow in the Nikkei. We won't know till they start trading a little after five o'clock our time. We won't know it. Maybe the Nikkei rallies tomorrow in the global markets rally and my theory is going to be, you know, throwing out the door. But if the global markets continuing to sell off, I don't think you're going to get another 40, you know, 4400 point loss on the Nikkei again, God willing, but if the global markets start to sell off, that's a whole nother problem, right? You're going to get, you're going to get Powell getting phone calls from central bank leaders around the world saying, you know, what the hell you do? You know, we have our own problems here at home and now you're, you know, being viewed by Wall Street investors and hedge funds and so on and so forth. You're late to the party, Mr. Powell, you're late to the party. Get going with it. Second factor, we all know, if you've listened to us for years, you know what we always say. We say this tongue in cheek because I personally don't believe it and that is the Fed is supposed to be apolitical. They're not supposed to be influenced about upcoming elections and other thing, but I, you know, again, I firmly believe that the Fed is influenced in some form or fashion by existing administrations, future administrations, et cetera. I think in my opinion, if I was to fly on the wall, I feel in my heart of hearts, Jason, that Mr. Powell and the rest of the FOMC are getting phone calls from the Biden administration, as well as other politicians saying, look it, if you don't do something in this market and this, if the market continues to go down, if the economy stalls, guess what, folks, you vote with your pocketbook. You may say I'm a Republican, I'm a Democrat, but damn it, you're going to vote with your pocketbook. If you feel the economy is great, you're going to vote for Biden. If you think the economy sucks, you're going to vote for Trump, you know, coming in and new people, new regimes and so on and so forth. It's just the way that we're wired as human beings. So that's my other point to say, you know what, I think there's good logic that we could get in a surprise cut. Here's my third point, the Fed has nothing to lose by giving us a surprise cut. Now, Jeremy Siegel, a very, very well respected Wharton professor and so on and so forth, he was on CNBC today and he just, it was adamant about calling for an emergency rate cut. Again, we said it on Friday on this show, folks, but you know, he said it today. He was very adamant. He was calling for, well, he's either half a percent or three quarters over a percent. He said three quarters. I think three quarters. Yeah. One, you know, this time and then multiple others down the road. I don't think so. I think if I was Jerome Powell and I looked at this again, let's remember the other thing, the Fed is not supposed to be paying attention to the stock market, which they have to no matter what. But if you're Jerome Powell and you're going, okay, I, you know, my counterparts in Japan just, you know, lost 4400 points, almost 13% loss, Germany was down, major markets around the world were down. A lot of it stem because we're getting criticized that a recession is looming here in the U.S. We're being criticized that we're too late to the party. Hey, boys and girls, meaning the members of the FOMC, the voting committee of the Fed. Guess what? Let's do an emergency quarter percent cut. Now, why is this not a big deal, but why it could very much please the market is because a quarter percent cut, folks, means really nothing. Because we've explained many times when the Fed raises or lowers interest rates, they're doing what's called the Fed funds rate, which is the rates that banks charge one another to borrow money overnight. It doesn't affect Jason. It doesn't affect me. Now you should see a little bit of a pullback and prime rate. So if you are, you know, have money on a credit card or so on so forth, theoretically, you should see a little bit of a pullback, but that's a whole nother show what impact it really has. But it's more, again, we're getting into the psychological side of things. If the Fed gives us a quarter percent cut, we're going to go, "Phew, the Fed's got our back, Jason. The Fed is concerned about this." So quarter percent doesn't really mean much. Doesn't make the Fed, remember, they're agitistical men and women. They want to create a legacy quarter percent cut. Hey, they're standing behind the economy. It doesn't admit that they were wrong raising rates too late or cutting too late and so on and so forth. I think it's just kind of a good Goldilocks scenario. It's not too hot. It's not too cold. And then you get out of this mess because if they don't do something, if they don't do something, you and I have both seen this, Jason, in our careers, if they don't do something, this thing can turn into a very ugly. We're not talking 10 percent plus correction. We can easily get into bear market, 20 percent correction very easily if this drags on for, I mean, really, you only need about a week or two to hit 20 percent on like a NASDAQ or something, something that moves very, very quickly. So that's just kind of my theory as to why I think the cards are starting to stack in favor of it. And then finally, we had Austin Goldsby of the FOMC on CNBC this morning, says, "Look, if things are broke, we're going to fix it." And that was a very bullish comment from him. He's usually not quite so forthcoming, but the streets take it, matter of fact, he improved the futures dramatically. When he said that is, "I took that is, you know what, if things are broken, the Fed's going to fix it." Meaning they're going to come in. They can't wait to August the 18th, excuse me, September the 18th. They cannot wait. Too much damage could be done. Again, we saw, like I said, $7 trillion of market capitalization wiped out just in the last week, a trillion dollars here, just in the top tech names, the MAG 7 as they call. So when we come back, Jason, I'd like to get your opinion on that. And then we'll begin to wrap things up and tell you what we think you need to be doing at this point. Kristin Snow, please have the owners are wrapping us up in the right now, traffic center. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show, a news talk, 780K, which with Jason Gont. Once again, we finished down 1034 on the Dow, and as that gave up, 576 S&P down 160. Now, we've got some good news for you. Checking the futures market. Now remember, it's still very early. Futures just started trading just a short time ago. But here's the good news. Dow futures right now, they are higher by 208 points. NASDAQ futures rising 218, S&P is at 51. Jason is you and I are chatting before the show. We're starting to see a little bit of nibbling in the after hour session in regards to some of the major tech names. Let me run through these very quickly, and then we'll get back to you on your opinion on an emergency cut or no. Our meta, formerly Facebook, of course, up $4.27 after hours. Apple is higher by $1.09 after Warren Buffett dumped half of his position. This is one of the trigger points that happened over the weekend. We learned about that one. Microsoft rising $3.86 after hours and Nevada gaining $2.15. So, a little bit of recovery again, still very early. No telling what can happen, but at least it's stepping the right direction. All right. Your opinion on... Dollar. Yeah, it's green. Dollar ends green? Whoa, look at that. That's tied together. Yeah. By the way, kudos to you. What was it? Two or three weeks ago? You predicted this dollar. You didn't carry trade, etc. It was going to be a market problem, so no surprise there. No surprise. It's just one of the little things, you know what I mean, that can be out there that once they start to move in a weird direction, I think that's more than anything. Again, going back to the Fed's surprise cut, like if things change, I do, right? If like I said, if we see bonds blow out or you get another bank that has a problem for liquidity reasons, something along those lines, yeah, I mean I've settled along there at five and a quarter and inflation's at two and a half, right? That's right. They're more than sufficiently restrictive, I thought there'd be two cuts this year sort of baked in and now, again, sort of like Clark's note earlier, it went from six cuts to no cuts to two and a half cuts, so yeah, I hope they don't need to cut intermediate. I remember we have Jackson Hole in two weeks, so that could be something where if new data comes out, CPI or some of those that show a collapse of some kind, it's definitely on the table. Let's go back to what do you say you hope they don't do it emergency cut? I just don't think they need to, right? I don't think things have collapsed to the point where they need to come out intermeeting and make a cut like that historically is for reasons of egregious, you know, something's really wrong, I hope that they don't need to for that reason. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Well, here's a little stat for all of you, okay? So I went back during the break because I could remember the exact number. The Fed over the last 17 months has raised interest rates 525 basis points. That's five and a quarter percent. So back to my logic, quarter percent, it's like spitting in the wind. You're not even going to notice it, really, but again, stock market reaction. Now, let's explain further what you were saying for those that maybe new to our style and our theories and our logic and things. You got to be careful whether it's a surprise cut, which again, gets, gets telegraphed at the top of the priority list or, you know, we get a quarter percent cut in September. Let's say another quarter percent cut the next meeting, so on and so forth. Too many cuts signify to Wall Street that there are problems in the economy. There's problems lurking that maybe we're not seeing, but the Fed is seeing in their data. So there's a very, very fine line as to how many cuts you give. The bottom line is the Fed is behind the curve. They should have cut at this last meeting. I hope, again, that I think in the month of August, they have every reason to give us a quarter percent cut just to kind of calm things down. But again, too soon to tell, we will see, you know, again, if we get more market sell-offs, bottom line, we should be dealing with your money right now, you know, look at your time horizon. Remember exactly the great data that Jason shared earlier. This is normal, right? This is normal. But we got to watch very closely is that the global markets continue to pressure things. But pick your bottom up or pick your buying opportunities are some little bit of beaten up stocks, Jason. I was like a think of stronger words, but let's just say they're beaten up today. Some great names that you may have wanted to add to your portfolio. Anything you want to add? Just interesting now where people couldn't buy some of these names faster now when they're down. You're too expensive. Right. Now we say stock markets are the only store in the world that goes on sale and everyone runs out of it. That's right. That's exactly right. So take a deep breath. Things are going to be fine. But you know what? Make sure you join us each and every day. This is what we do to try to help you make some money and preserve what you have. We appreciate it. Be with you. Thanks for welcoming us into your home on this new three o'clock hour. We'll do it again tomorrow night on the John Sanchez Show. God bless. Have a great evening. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting john@sansheswealthmanagement.com or 775-800-1801. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through independent financial group LLC, a registered broker, dealer and investment advisor. Remember FINRA SIPC securities offered only in states John Sanchez is registered in. 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