The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You'll also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jilladell that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-O-L. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 4.50 pm eastern on a Wednesday, my dudes. August 7th, 2024 had a very, very good betting day today, 4-1 on the picks, plus 2.768 units. Never, ever, ever forget our KT rule that came through in flying colors today. Kwonggang win the series outright against KT Rolster, there's a bit of a caveat here. KT Rolster were probably about 90% to win this first game. So yeah, we got a little bit lucky on the 2-0 side of this thing and you never know how that can change the trajectory of a series. But the second game was another domination from Kwonggang freaks, so happy we got that one home. Got to see our first Aurora in the LCK. We're definitely going to be seeing a lot of this champion, she's very, very powerful, very, very well rounded, also has a ton of skill expression when it comes to just mobility and juking vision and stuff like that. So this is a champion that's probably going to be around for, you know, ever, like in perpetuity. Her kit's extremely well rounded, she could, I could see this champion turning into an Azir, you know, Azir, Korky, Orianna, like that kind of thing, where it's just like perpetually a thing, like the champion's very, very strong. I think it's a little over tuned right now, so she'll probably get nerfed at some point. We're seeing a ton of her in like all the, all the different regional leagues, PCS has been playing her, she's hasn't been enabled in the LPL and LCK until this week. Actually, I'm not sure about the LCK, LPL, but the LCK she's enabled, she'll be enabled in the LCS. I think she might have been this week, but nobody played her. We're going to be seeing this champ, she's going to be here to stay. I think, I think it's a very, very well rounded kit. I thought that about Hui too, but Hui has more of his limitations, lack of mobility. This champion has everything, she really, really does. So I think we're going to be seeing her quite a bit, get used to seeing her, you know, get yourself caught up on the champs, you know, on her builds and take a look at, you know, the champ spotlight and all that kind of stuff if you have no idea what she does, so. Other series was DRX vs Gen G, DRX cashed our first blood, they got first blood in both games for this series. This game was kind of like one way traffic for Gen G after DRX got that good start. As we see a lot of times, the second game for this series, DRX actually put up a really good fight. This is a really close game through the first like 25, 26 minutes before they made a pretty critical mistake and kind of just lost the game all in one fell swoop kind of suddenly. This was not a game that this was a much closer game than the box score is going to show. If you like, look at the actual goal graph and like watch the game itself, this was a much, much more competitive game, kind of, you know, saw a little bit of the green horn in Seitab and a little bit of the rust from Rascal. I know people are jumping down Rascal's throat for his performance in this match. In both these games, he was in, he ended up having reenact him for his game plank. That's a, for those that don't know, that's just a absolutely brutal matchup, there's not a whole lot you can do. And yeah, these games were not his fault. I'm not saying he could have, like he could have managed it better, especially the second, the first game definitely could have managed the situations that he was put in better, but like just understand that he was in like a no win situation to begin with. So I wouldn't jump down his throat, but yeah, I don't know. This was, I was a little bit surprised, DRX were actually chippy and they legitimately kept this second game pretty close for a while. They had a chance to win that one is probably, you know, 50 50 ish, something like that. I mean, if you took the nameplates off, they would have been 50 50. So kind of a cool performance from them. Anyway, good betting day. We take those. All right. Let's take a look at week, week eight, day two here, Thursday morning in the LCK. We have homolyfe esports minus 2469 on the money line. Last one to have maps is at minus 419 against, okay, Breon savings bank plus 1258 on the money line plus one and a half to plus three 16 and the underdog sweep is at 30 to one. Breon coming off a two up set of KT Rolster. This is obviously a big step up in competition to homolyfe esports, homolyfe esports, as we all know, outstanding as favorites against, especially against the lower part of the table, 10 and two outright this season, which is actually kind of rough for them. Seven and four against the maps bread, but still well above market expectation on those. Automated this series minus 877 plus 691. So obviously you're going to show some favoritism toward the Breon sides here. Also flights, kill total overs as a moderately strong play, Breon first blood, yeah, it's coming up again. We're going to talk about that in a little bit. Spoiler alert and the over one and a half barons as well. How much do have side choice for this series? I do not see how am I losing this series. I know they just dropped one to KT Rolster, but as we know, KT Rolster's sealing games are a lot more potent than basically anything that we've seen from Breon. But Breon have newfound confidence. They're coming off that win. Finally, you know, got off the schnide, so to speak, I just think like, I wouldn't mess with them against homolyfe. If you're going to, I think the best way to do it is kill total overs or like a big kill spread. You can get like plus 10 and a half in this game. So that's how I would play it. But if you look at, like if you take out that weird T1 series where Breon took T1 to the brink in that first day, like two days after T1 flew back from the Sports World Cup, that was a very weird series T1, obviously not with it that day. And that was a very, very bloody series. If you take that series out of the sample and just look at how Breon have had like how their games have been against the good teams, 23.125 combined kills per game. So yeah, I don't think I don't particularly like the kill total overs. But if you think they're going to be chippy, then that's how I would play it. I'm going back to the well and first blood for a big underdog here, folks. Back to back days playing this. When you get these huge money line prices, it's one of the first places I look. Breon have actually been on a bit of a tear when it comes to first blood. They've struck first in the past six games in a row. And in eight of the previous 10, they have an impressive 63.6% first blood rate for the season. Homile are also quite good, 60.6%, but you're getting between +130 and +140 depending on what you look on the Breon side and what is effectively a coin flip prop. So I'm going to be playing this on map two when Breon will likely have side choice if they lose game one. So I also don't hate splitting this like half stakes on both maps either. So I'm going to play map two, Breon first blood +139 for one unit. Second game tomorrow morning is D plus Kia minus 351 on the money line, minus one half mass at +101, the +1/2 at -1072 against BNK, fear X plus 270 on the money line, +1/2 at -122 and the underdog sweeps that plus 679. Model made this much closer, D plus -172, fear X plus 155, if you make a bit of an adjustment for D plus having side choice in this series, this should probably be in the ballpark of like a -200, -225, just with the qualitative adjustment of most of fear X's performance being against weaker teams. They haven't exactly shown well against the good teams, but they have looked fundamentally sound and I do think you have to respect their improvement. So I don't think this is quite, I'm not quite as bullish on them as my model is, but I'm not as bearish as the market is either, I'm somewhere in between. I still think this meets the threshold for a play on fear X. Interesting with this one, they got their ass kicked by Gen G, but fear X have taken down T1 and KT Rolster, but I don't think KT Rolster and T1 have been quite as good as D plus Hamuan Gen G recently. So there's something to be said for that. The last time these two squared off, fear X probably should have won the first game. They were probably like 80% to win that first game. They were up, not huge, but they were up and in control of the game before they bungled it and they got whooped in game two. This was, for those who don't remember, this was a very bloody series the first time around is back in week two, kind of before fear X had their philosophical revolution like started playing what they're good at and stopped playing the barroom brawl kind of stuff. They're still kind of playing up tempo and aggressive, but they're not, it's not nearly as bloody because it's not as sloppy, it's much more honed in. The first series with these two had 34 and 38 kill games. The second one was a 31 to seven shell lacking from D plus, so I do, you know, I think that was kind of flooky, but I still like kill total overs in this contest. The model projected kill total overs made this a 24.57 projection for the actual games. I just think in general, like it's like, the thing is these two teams both have above league average combined kills per minute and even if I think the games are going to be a little bit shorter, the model actually flagged kill time total unders in this. Because they're so fast paced, these teams, I actually think this could get there regardless. Model flagged, obviously, fear X sides kill total overs as strong plays also flag D plus first blood is moderate, they have a 70 plus percent first blood rate folks and fear X of a 27 percent, you have to lay, I think it was like minus 130 to get that. I'm not playing that, but just figured I'd miss, call it out. You know, D plus do deserve to be favored. And like I said, I think this should probably be more than like the minus 200 minus 225 range, like maybe make this like roughly like a 68 32 or 70 30, something like that. But I do ultimately think this is a play on fear X, this is too, I think this is a little bit too disrespectful to them, given what we've seen recently. I know it hasn't really been against particularly good teams, but this is a big number. The other thing I'll mention in this game is this is kind of, this is a really, really important match for fear X. If you look at the standings, like whoever makes these last two playoff spots, it's probably going to come down to game score, like game differential. It's extremely close. If you're X lose this series, they go proud, they go all the way down to seventh place. If they win this series, they could, they could be in fourth place tomorrow, which is crazy. So yeah, a lot of, a lot of drama in the standings, actually, if they win this series tomorrow, they wouldn't be in fourth place yet, but it'll depend on what T1 does on Friday. They'd be in very good position to be in fourth place, which is insane, but they have a negative game. So fear X are kind of in a weird spot because they have a negative game differential, but they have a 500 match score. So like they're 14 and seven in games, meaning like their game differential is going to be a huge knock against them if they can't win some matches. So I would expect a full on game effort from them. This is going to be kitchen sink level shit from them. So I usually like being on overs in those kinds of situations. Sometimes teams get a little tight, but a lot of times they are just full on aggressive and really sending it. So this is an important match for D plus two. They haven't locked in anything just yet with a win here. They wouldn't lock in third, but they would put themselves two full matches ahead of T1 and they would probably be ahead in game score enough to really just need to take a couple of games in the final week and they'll lock in third place. They could also theoretically chase down homo life esports, but that's very, very unlikely at this point. So D plus, not super motivated, fear X, like this is like a must win series for them. Like they, if they lose this, fear X is scheduled next week. They play Kwongdong later this week, which is not easy. Next week they have to face homo life and T1. So they would really, really like to go to this week. It would go a long way toward getting them into a playoff spot, especially because they're playing matches against people that are near them in the standings. So I'm expecting a bit of a kitchen sink game from fear X here. I'm going to play fear X plus one and a half maps minus one twenty two for one unit. I think they can get a map here. I don't, I'm not playing the series money line because they're going to be off sides, but I think they can get a map in this contest. I'm also going to play the map one over twenty four and a half kills a plus one eleven for one unit. It's going to be it for me. I will see you all tomorrow.
