Playing in his contract year, Pete Alonso is enduring one of the worst seasons of his career. Can he still turn it on to salvage his season?
Host Ryan Finkelstein breaks down what has gone wrong for Pete and what needs to happen for him to turn it around.
Also, how has Mark Vientos' emergence impacted Alonso's future with the Mets?
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[MUSIC PLAYING] It's the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Is Pete Alonso ever going to turn it on and carry the Mets lineup at any point this season? I want to break that down as well as the Mets' first series loss and over a month on today's show. You are locked on Mets, your daily New York Mets Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team, every day. Hello to all you amazing Mets fans. You're listening to "Locked On." That's part of the "Locked On" Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you for making "Locked On" Mets your first listen every day. "Locked On" Mets is free and available on all platforms, including YouTube. On today's show, we have a Mets series who lost the discuss for the first time in a while. I'll break down the frustrations in Anaheim in the first segment, second segment. We're going to change gears and focus in on Pete Alonso. Are we going to see Pete Alonso carry the lineup at any stretch this season? I'll break down where he struggled up to this point this year and what lies in front of him. So we'll go through that in the second segment. In the final segment, I'm going to talk about Mark Fientos. He's been very good this season. How has his play maybe impacted Pete Alonso's future with the club? Before we get to any of that though, I'm your host Ryan Fickelstein. If you want to find any of my work, follow me on accent, Fickelstein and Ryan. You can also find some of my writing at justbaseball.com where I work as the managing editor. This episode has brought you by PrizePix, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Go to prizepix.com/lockedonmlb and use the code "all lowercase locked on MLB" for your first deposit match up to $100. The New York Mets could have easily swept this series over the weekend against the Angels. On Saturday, there was that big moment where JD Martinez hits the Grand Slam to give the Mets a late 4-2 lead. Unfortunately, as I talked about on Sunday's show, while Scar Brazaban ends up giving up a three run homer right after that. And that proves to be the ultimate final blow for the Mets and they can't come back to win that game. But that was a game that they had in hand and they just couldn't get those final nine outs. Then on Sunday, you just can't score. And all of a sudden, this lineup, which has carried the Mets, there's so many portions of this season when they've gotten hot as a team, they started to win all these games. It was because of the lineup. Now, all of a sudden, where are they? Because they have an opportunity going up against a bad pitcher in Griffin Canning who after going five innings and allowing just one earned run, still has an area over five. And yet the Mets just could not score on him or the Angels bullpen. Jose Quintana did not look great, but at least he gave the Mets a chance. He gives up three runs. He ends up getting a loss in this one, but he was on the ropes in the second and the third inning and found his way out of those jams with limited damage. And I'm not saying he deserved to win, but he didn't necessarily deserve to lose either, only giving up three runs and getting you through five. The Mets bullpen pitched well in this game because of course, when one thing is not going, the other thing will work. So when the Mets are able to put themselves in position to win a game on Saturday, the bullpen doesn't hold up. And on the game where they're trying to get back into it, the bullpen keeps them there, but the lineup just can't get over the tap. Adam Adavino, strong inning in this game. Perfect one, two, three with two strikeouts. Danny Young, also a perfect inning with one strike gap. Phil Mayton, a three strike gap inning. He did allow one base hit. So the bullpen held up, Quintana wasn't bad. It's just a lineup that you can blame for this one. The Mets scored their first run on the second inning and it was unearned. Francisco Alvarez gets on with two outs on an error. Jeff McNeil draws a walk to extend the inning and then Harrison Bader drives and Alvarez with the base hit. Fifth inning, Jeff McNeil hit a lead off double and he will later score on a base hit by Francisco Lindor. Now in that fifth inning, Brandon Imadro walked after Lindor's hit. And so that put two runners on for JD Martinez and Pinalonzo, both of them flew out. The Mets were two for 10 with runners in scoring position in this game. So just, again, the bats couldn't get the job done. They had a couple of moments where you thought they would tie it. First one was in the seventh inning. Francisco Lindor hits a foul ball homerun that was ruled fair originally. So for a fleeting moment, you had hopes and prayers that maybe the Mets would be tied. A replay review showed that the ball definitely went foul. So Lindor had to go back and hit. He ended up flying out. Eighth inning, golden opportunity. Pinalonzo gets hit by a pitch. Jesse Winker gets a knock and Alonzo goes first to third. Tyrone Taylor comes in a pinch run. So you got Taylor on first, Alonzo on third, Mark Vientos up. You felt very good about your chance to bare minimum get a sacrifice fly with Vientos at the dish. And it wasn't a terrible at bat, but he ends up hitting into a double play. The one thing you can't have happen, and that just kills any hope for the Mets. I'll also note that Tyrone Taylor was running on one of those previous pitches prior to the double play ball. Why was he not just running every time when you got to two strikes? Worst case scenario, Tyrone Taylor gets thrown out at second base. Whatever, honestly, 'cause with two outs, the Mets probably won't get it. We're not gonna get a hit anyway the way they were swinging it. But if Tyrone Taylor is running in that spot, he could run and beat that play at second base and you score a run. So that was a missed opportunity, but who's it saying the Mets would have scored in the ninth or an extra innings? Sometimes it's just not your series. And I guess that was the case here, but it's so frustrating because those were two games that weren't lopsided. There were games that a couple things go to the Mets way and everything is completely different and you sweep a series instead of losing a series. Granted, it's the first series they've lost since June, so you should get them a little bit of a pass. You shouldn't jump off the bandwagon, but the season can get away from you quick, okay? Because the Mets were sitting in a pass about a couple days ago. Now, the Padres win the final two games of their series against the Rockies. The Diamondbacks beat the Pirates in their series. All of a sudden, the Mets are a game and a half out of the playoffs. Diamondbacks holding on to the third spot. The Braves and the Padres are even both half a game above the Diamondbacks right now. So it's not anybody's race, but the Mets really got to step up. They got the Cardinals now for one game to make up of a rain out. Would have been an off day. Now it is a game you have to fly for Anaheim to St. Louis, then from St. Louis to Colorado to play the Rockies. The Mets got to take advantage still though. They have to find a way to beat the Cardinals because this is a team you're directly competing against in this wildcard race. The Cardinals are a game and a half behind the Mets. They lose to them. Now they're just right on your heels. I mean, they already are, but they're within a game. So you got to win. Shawman I has got to play stopper for the Mets. And then we'll talk about on tomorrow's show, but you get to Colorado, you can't let bad teams beat you because the schedule gets a lot tougher the further on you go into this season. Right now this is one of their easier stretches. At one point at the end of this month, you're going to put the Padres and the Diamondbacks. That's going to be two critical series. At the end of the season in September, we've talked about this a lot. 13 of the Mets final 16 games will come against the Phillies, the Braves and the Brewers. There's only three games in that 16 game stretch against the Nationals. You're only reprieve. And who knows what the Nationals are going to look like with potentially some more of their young studs up. You got to win now. You got to win now. And a guy that has to start to come through for the Mets is Peter Lanza. I want to talk about him in the next segment because this could be pretty much his final 50 games in the Mets uniform. He's got to show us something. If he wants to get paid by the Mets or by anybody else. And I feel like his play has just been so disappointing. And my patience has worn thin. So we're going to talk about Pete in the next segment. First though, a word from our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Liquid IV. 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(upbeat music) (upbeat music) - If you're an everyday listener to the show, make sure you become a locked on meds insider. This is our texting service where you get updates from me anytime news breaks in the meds. You can ask me questions anytime. You can also get the lineup graphics sent to your phone each day so you know is in the meds starting lineup without ever having to go on social media. You wanna be a locked on meds insider. Find the link in the episode description. Go to subtext.com/lockedonmeds. A penalonzo is nearing what could be the end of his meds tenure. Okay, there's what, 51 games left in this season. The time is now to turn it on. And if you look at what penalonzo has done throughout his career, you compare it to this season. This is by far the worst season of his career. 2021 is the only season that comes close. That year, he had at least six home runs in four of the six months and drove in 17 or more in three of the six months. And that was again, his worst statistical season prior to this year. And he had at least six home runs in four of the six months. I note that because this year, he's only hit more than five home runs in one month the first month of the season where he hit eight home runs in drove in 15. You go month by month, may he had four home runs, 12 RBIs, June, five home runs, 19 RBIs, July, five home runs, 11 RBIs, 11 RBIs in the entire month of July. penalonzo has to be better than that. You look at his career last year. Outside of June, penalonzo drove in at least 20 runs every single month of the season. There's six months in a season. He drove in 20 or more in five of those months. That's a hundred RBIs right there throwing out a horrible June. He had two 10 home run months last year and one nine home run month. This year, again, the most he's hit is eight in a month and that was the first month of the season since. He hasn't topped out at more than five. In 2022, penalonzo drove in at least 16 runs every single month. And remember, as I broke down this season, month by month, he has only driven in more than 15 once in June. That's when he had 19. And he had a month in 2022 where he drove in 30. He also hit nine home runs in three of the six months in 2022. 2019 is rookie season. He hit nine or more home runs in four of the six months. Other two months were eight and six. And then he had three months with at least 20 RBIs, five months with 17 or more. penalonzo has got to be driving it in 20 RBIs a month and he has to be hitting at least seven home runs. You extrapolate that out over a full season, seven home runs a month, 20 RBIs a month. You're looking at 42 home runs and 120 driven in. And you'd say that's crazy to expect a guy to drive in 120. But if penalonzo is going to be an effective player making upwards of $20 million per season, he's got to be driving it over a hundred and probably significantly more than a hundred. And he's got to be hitting 40 bombs. If penalonzo continues at his current pace, right? And let's just say he hits four more home runs this month. And then he hits five in September. What's he going to finish the year at? He's what, 23 right now? I'm checking right now that the stat to see where he's at to make sure I have this right. He isn't 23 home runs, 59 RBIs. So if it's 15 RBIs each month, 15 more, that would be 89 RBIs on the season. And yeah, if he hits 10 more home runs, looking at 33 home runs. He's got to be better. And the crazy thing is you look at some of the stats and they don't look terrible. You know, compared to last year, his batting average was 2.17. Going into the game today, it was 2.42. Looking at it, it was 2.41 after the game today. On base percentage, slightly better than last year. The last year he's slugged 504, this year he's slugging 465. His WRC+ right now is 124, which is technically better than last year, which was 121. But last year, he hit 46 bombs and he drove in 118. Peter Lonzo, if he were to turn it on these final two months, he can carry you. Peter Lonzo could go on a stretch. But let's just talk about this road trip. He could hit a home run in St. Louis, help you win that game, hit two more in Colorado, then go to Seattle and hit a couple. And the Mets by win all of those series, then by win the game against St. Louis and sweep the Rockies, beat the Mariners, all because penalons of gets high. He's got it in him to carry a lineup and he hasn't done it all season. And this is a contract year. He's going to hit the open market and Scott Boris is going to put his entire career in front of teams and say he's a guaranteed 40 and 100. Oh, he didn't get there this year, but other than that, he's been a guaranteed 40 and 100. Well, guess what? What have you done for me lately? Scott Boris is going to put Pete out in the market and expect 25 million a season, seven years. Good luck. Good luck. The way he's playing, I think he'd be lucky to get five for 100. And I hate to say that because I'm the guy that has said nothing but good things about penalons or into a microphone since 2019, the first season I did this show. Piedalonzo across this time has probably been my favorite player. I have done show after show this season about why penalons should stay with the Mets, why they both need each other, why the Mets need Pete, why Pete needs the Mets. And I've tried to be in on this guy and I still want to be. But at a certain point, it gets hard to keep buying in. When he keeps swinging at those lone away sliders, that's out of his own and striking out or rolling him over, it's tough to keep defending the guy. This season in high-levered situations, penalons those hitting 195 with a 365 on base 317 slug and 90 WRC+. With runners in scoring position, he's hitting 202, 336 on base, 365 slug, 99 WRC. He's hitting the ball into the ground more than ever, career low and barrel percentage and average exit velocity, and his run value against sliders and run value to make it simple, it's basically a stat that accounts for the outcome. So let's just say it's base is loaded, penalons are hitting to a double play ball. There's gonna be a run value attached to that pitch that he hit. Now, if he hits a home run in that spot, it's a grand slam, there's gonna be a positive run value that is attached to it. So his run value against the slider this year is at minus eight. He is slugging 237 against sliders. Last year, he hit 200 against sliders, wasn't great. But you know what he did against sliders when it comes to slug? 571 slug and percentage, plus three when it comes to run value, because he was hitting them out of the ballpark every once in a while. Now, maybe he just hasn't gotten any hanging sliders all year. I find that hard to believe, but maybe that's what's happening here. But also, maybe penalonzo is chasing sliders out of the zone more than ever before. Funny thing about me griping about penalons right now is that over the last 15 days, the last two weeks, penalonzo is the second best OPS on the team behind only Jeff McNeil. Jose Glasey is at 594. Brennan Nemo has the worst among the regulars at 484. Francisco Alvarez, also right there, actually 359 OPS. So there's other guys that are struggling worse. penalonzo again, last two weeks, you could say he's not even struggling, 936 OPS. It's pretty damn good, but I need more out of penalonzo. The Mets need more. Francisco Endor can carry this team, but that's only going to get you so far. penalonzo has to turn it on. He's got to have one of those 10-home run months. If he does that in September and he gets to 8 this month, well guess what, he's going to clear 40 home runs. And you know what, if he gets 10 home runs in the month of September, he might drive in 30 and he very well could clear 100 RBI still. And if you do that, if you reach those benchmarks, if penalonzo gets to the 40 home runs, which is looking more and more difficult by the day, 17 away. And he hasn't hit more than 500 months in a month again since the first month of the season. But if he can get there, if he can get to 100 RBI's plus there, there's every chance that that's going to be the difference between the Mets making the playoffs or not. So we've made all the excuses in the world for penalonzo this year to contract years weighing on him, the pressure from being in New York and all the eyes on him because of the contract year and everything else. There's a million different things that you can put in sale. That's the only reason why Pete hasn't been playing well. But if you look at the archivist career, there is a pattern that has been forming because last year wasn't great either. It was good. It was 46 home runs, 118 driven in, but he hit 217. So this is the time for an attorney to turn it on if he wants that big contract. But more importantly, if he wants to stay in New York, if he wants the chance to make some playoff noise in New York, it's on those shoulders of his. So I hope he goes out there and does it proves a lot of people wrong and sets himself up nicely for free agency. I am rooting for him, of course. I don't want to be talking down on Pete, but it's been hard to talk positively about the season he's put together so far. On the other hand, there's the guy that's maybe going to grab his starting job at first base in the future, who has been incredible at third base this season. That's what we're going to talk about next. Mark Vientos didn't come through today, but he has come through plenty. I want to break down what he's done up to this point in just a minute. 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Pick more pick less. It's that easy with prize pick. Delicious meets nutritious and the snack that packs a real protein punch. Simple pistachios won the highest protein nuts out there. Miller Thomas of Lockdown Diamondbacks here and I love these pistachios because each one ounce serving has six grams of protein giving you over 10% of your daily value. So whether your pistachio purist who loves cracking open every night or you prefer the convenience of no shell pistachios, wonderful pistachios has got you covered. Grab wonderful pistachios and elevate your snacking game today. Is it wonderful pistachios.com to learn more. Stay up to date with all the latest from the world of sports by checking out Lockdown Sports today is streaming 24/7 on YouTube. If you look at the field of third baseman this year who have gotten a minimum of 250 plate appearances. Marc Vientos is second to only Raphael Deverse in WRC+ and an OPS. WRC+ is weighted runs creative plus it's an all encompassing stat that measures hitters on a league average of 100 and it is park adjusted. So it is the best stat out there to tell us again based on that average of 100 who has been the most valuable hitter. Raphael Deverse at 163 has been the best offensive third baseman in baseball. Marc Vientos has been the second best with a 152 WRC+ which is by far the best on the New York Mets when it comes to a large sample size. A glacis has been up there too I think lately he's probably dip below that. But Vientos has been so good you look at OPS this was all these stats by the way we're going into the game today. So I should note that but OPS Raphael Deverse at 994 Vientos at 897 second best OPS is on base plus slugging he's sixth and average among third baseman ninth and on base percentage second in slug. Since May 15th when he got called back up Marc Vientos is fourth in wins above replacement according to Fangrass behind only Deverse Matt Chapman and Jose Ramirez. So that is a large sample size here of a couple months more than two months actually where this guy's been a top five third baseman in baseball. This walk rate at 8% very solid strikeout rate 26% those are decent numbers considering what we saw last year for him and then defensively minus four defensive run saved so that metric doesn't love him at third base. Out above average he's where zero out above average he'll be average. Now you watch at the eye test he's been very solid over there. I do think that first base is probably a better position for him although his arm is of great value at third and it's not going to be as valuable at first for sure but if Brett Beatty could ever learn how to hit it to big league level that would be a more natural third baseman who's going to be a plus defender at the hot corner and Vientos can be your first baseman. When you look at barrel percentage he's in the 96 percentile expected slug 91st percentile he's in the 70th percentile or higher and expect the batting average average exit velocity and expected global. Bottom line this guy has been a well above average hitter and a league average defender at third base. He absolutely could be your starting third baseman of the future but if you're thinking about the way this team is put together and you envision the next five years are the Mets going to be the best possible team with Vientos at third base and Pinalonzo at first base or somebody else at third in Vientos at first whether that's Brett Beatty whether that's Ronnie Mauricio whether it's Jacob Rimer further down on my leagues who knows. The thing I will say is be careful to expect someone to be better than Mark Vientos at third base because Vientos has shown more potential with the bat than any Mets homegrown talent sense David Wright. Now I don't know if Mark Vientos long term should be at third and just because he should be at first doesn't mean you can't sign Pete back to be your DH that's still in the cards potentially but if you had to write up the script for Pinalonzo leaving the Mets after this season it would look a lot like what we have seen so far and underwhelming season from Pete. Mark Vientos being the guy that jumps out of the young core as much as we love Francisco Alvarez and we do trust me the defense is amazing he's shown stretches of being a really good hitter he's definitely got a better approach in the box although he's definitely struggling lately but that guy is going to be your catcher for a long time regardless though when it comes to the bat alone is there a young bat that you have more optimism on right now than Vientos I don't know if there is that's been an amazing development for the Mets because this is a guy that you can now count on for the foreseeable future to give you solid offensive production wherever you decide to put him in the lineup whether it's at third base first base or at DH and there is part of me that thinks keeping a third base might be the best thing because he's shown ability to hold his own there he could get better over time and he is more valuable as a third baseman than he'd be as a first baseman just by virtue of it being a tougher position if he can hold it down and be at least league average and solid over there that's a big plus but there is a world where he could be a plus first baseman and breath be he can be a plus third baseman all of this is to say all eyes are on penalons over these next two months because the Mets have their replacement for him in house he's there it's Mark Vientos what they do at third would be a different conversation for another day there'd be a lot of different guys that could audition for that spot either internally or even at the Mets wanted to go out and sign somebody but I hope that penalons of does what Steve Cohen asked of him before the start of the season the exact same thing that Steve Cohen said I hope Pete makes it tough on me he's done that in the wrong way he's made it tough to bring him back I hope he changes that narrative and makes it tough to watch him go but that's on his shoulders again so anyway that's going to be all for today's edition of locked on Mets on tomorrow's show a breakdown whatever happens in this one game against the Cardinals and I'll preview lies ahead against the Colorado Rockies to make sure you check that out if you're listening on the audio side follow rate review wherever gets your podcast if you're watching on YouTube do me a favor hit that subscribe button trying to make a push to 10,000 subs by the end of the season so I appreciate all of you who continue to subscribe if you want to be locked on Mets insider find the link in the episode description to go to subtext.com/lockedonmet if you found me on social at Finkelstein Ryan follow the show at locked on Mets thank you for making locked on Mets your first listen or your first watch every day after your second watch head over to YouTube and check out the first ever 24/7 streaming channel that covers everything World of Sports talking about locked on sports today with our local experts from each team League what experts from each League if I locked on sports today streaming 24/7 on YouTube on Amazon fire TV a prime members you can listen to this locked on podcast and free on Amazon music download the Amazon music app today [MUSIC PLAYING]
