The New York Mets are one of six teams who are all fighting for three spots in the NL Wild Card race. Do they have what it takes to win the marathon and which teams most stand in their way?
Host Ryan Finkelstein breaks down the state of the NL Wild Card race with two months left to play.
Also, could the winners of the Wild Card race, play a role into who wins the NL MVP and does Francisco Lindor have a legit shot?
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It's the lockdown podcast network, your team every day. With two months left to play and five teams squarely in the mix, the N.O.W.A. car race will be a dog fight down the stretch. To the New York mess need Francisco Lindor to be an MVP to make it out on top, I'll break that down to more on today's show. Hello to all you amazing, that's fans, you're listening to locked on, that's part of the locked on podcast network your team every day. Thank you for making locked on match your first listen every day locked on mats is free and available on all platforms including YouTube. On the show today we're going to talk about the NL wildcard race and the first segment we're going to break down the teams that are going to be in this race all the way down the stretch and who I think it'll come down to then in the second segment we're going to talk about who is the best fit to actually make it between the mats the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks. In the last segment I want to take this conversation and bring it to the MVP race. Could the determining factor of the MVP race come down to which one of Francisco Lindor or Catel Marte leads their team to the playoffs. We'll talk about it all before we get to any of it though. I'm here with Ryan Ficklestein if you want to find any of my work. Follow me on X at Finklestein Ryan. You can also find some of my writing at just baseball.com where I work as the managing editor. Today's episode is brought to you by game time down the game time at credit account use the code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase terms apply. So the Mets lost their final game of their series against the Minnesota twins it was a chance to sweep the series and that's a good twins team by winning they moved to 11 games over 500 their second in the AL central squarely in the AL wildcard race and honestly this game sort of felt like a good team who's got pride that it's just not going to go down easy and get swept and Luis Severino did not pitch well had a nightmare third inning where he gave up five runs and that did end up being the end of the day for him. The Mets went to Tyler McGill after that because McGill heading right back down to Syracuse soon as Paul Blackburn is set to make his first start over the weekend with the Mets playing Anaheim against the Angels. So we watched two innings of McGill and relief where he gave up an additional run didn't look horrible but didn't really wow you into thinking oh he's got to stand in the big league roster by anti stretch and I think the Mets instead of trying to use him as a bullpen arm are going to want to send him down and keep him stretched out just in case something happens he's your sixth starter that you could always go to whenever you need to. So that was really the ball game though Severino had a bad start and that was it. I mean there's really not much else that we can say it's a breakdown this game. It was good to see Danny Young have a clean inning out of Montevino have a clean inning Phil Mayton did give up a run but it could have been a lot worse so I thought he fought through that inning and then Wasgar Brasaban comes in for the ninth inning and he had a really strong showing he did walk a batter but two strikeouts we saw how he could elevate that fastball really good stuff there nasty change up so I liked what I saw for Brasaban I think the Mets might have had a real find here and you look right now at their bullpen and how many guys have an ERA sub three Brasaban might just be the eighth inning guy for this team so those are very sneaky addition by Davis Derns of the deadline. I really like that one a lot and as far as the roster moves that we were expecting today as the Mets had to add some pitchers from this deadline they were able to have a Blackburn meet them out in Anaheim which allowed them to have an extra roster spot for the day which belonged to McGill so that's going to be the swap for Friday and then you saw Tyler Zouper the one pitcher the Mets got back from the Rays get optioned down to AAA you also saw Matt Gage you never made an appearance go right back to AAA to make room for Brasaban that was the roster prediction I had on yesterday's show so it ends up being the case the Mets sticking with Danny Young in the bullpen for now as I talked about on yesterday's show he's got only a couple more options left and he has thrown the ball a lot better as a late gives you a second lefty in that bullpen so I think for now we're going to see this group for a little bit until the obvious roster churn makes you have to make another move and then the Mets now have more options whenever they need them waiting in AAA but today's show is not about the game on Wednesday or the series it lies ahead it's about the stretch run because we have now turned the calendar to the month of August there's two months left and the New York Mets have been one of the best teams of baseball over the last two months you can make the argument just based on record alone they have been the best team in baseball there's a team right next to them though that I want to spend a lot of time on today and that is the Arizona Diamondbacks because I look at this wildcard race and all of a sudden it's going to be a dogfight I mean there was a long portion of this season where we thought all right maybe a team's going to make the playoffs with 84 wins that's not the case anymore it feels like you might even have nothing but 90 win teams in the playoffs because there's a lot of teams that are playing really good there's been some separation now and while you still have technically you go all the way down to the Cubs a huge grouping of teams that were within seven games of the wildcard race if you really boil it down it feels like there's six teams competing for three spots you're the Braves you're the Padres right now the Diamondbacks are half the game up on the Mets after play on Wednesday the Mets the Cardinals who are game behind the Mets the Pirates are two games back from the Mets and then beyond that there's the Giants the Reds and the Cubs who are all under 500 so those six teams Braves Padres Diamondbacks Mets Cardinals Pirates are all squarely in this race and it's going to be tough to make it out of it as one of the three playoff teams and I'll tell you what it does make me feel a little bit better about what the Mets did at the deadline because I think they got reinforcements to make that push but they didn't hurt their future for a push that could go in either direction you know in 2021 we saw the Mets make a big big trade to get Harvey Baez and Trevor Williams from the Cubs and they traded Pete Crowe Armstrong now Pete Crowe Armstrong has not had the best early success in the big leagues he is an elite defensive center fielder who knows what his career is going to be but that was a lot to give up at the time and if you just think about Pete Crowe Armstrong had he been on the Mets in 2022 that could have been a piece that might have gotten something better for a season where you were more clearly heading towards the playoffs and so I think when you really think about what the Mets are up against the deadline looks better and better but just looking now at what that push is going to mean there are certain sites that give you playoff odds and fan grasses one of them so I went to fan grass to see all right what's the Mets odds to make the playoffs right now the Braves are sitting at 84.7% chance to make the playoffs they are favored in this race to get out of it the Padres are at 70.3 so it seems like those two teams are the clear favorites to grab a log card spot and right now they are in those top two spots the Mets are sitting at 46.4% the Diamondbacks 58.8% then you know the Cardinals are 26.7 the Pirates at 14.6. Now why is that the case? Well if you look at strength this schedule and you really see who's got the toughest road ahead the Cardinals have the fifth highest strength of schedule remaining so if you look at winning percentage of the remaining competition fifth highest for the Cardinals at 5.18 Pirates are at 5.12 Diamondbacks at 5.10 the Mets 23rd highest at 4.88 Braves 4.85 reason why the Padres are favorited to make the playoffs they have the easiest schedule from here on out not to mention they just made some big additions to bolster that bullpen so they're going to be able to shorten games with a really good bullpen they have a lineup that's hidden pretty well right now they got Dylan Sees pitching near the Cy Young race it makes sense why the Padres are supposed to come out of this and the Braves are clearly a team that no one expects to fall out of this race and miss the playoffs so you really look at it from that lens it does feel like Mets Diamondbacks Cardinals and then the Pirates are still hanging out but I just can't imagine them actually holding serve throughout the rest of this season they do have Paul Skeens they did make some additions to help their lineup Brian de la Cruz Isaiah kind of a Falefa but I think they still have the weakest lineup in this race and ultimately I think that's going to be what dooms them the Cardinals I think they got a shot at it we're going to talk about them in the next segment but to me this is really going to boil down to Mets vs Diamondbacks and that could also add a wrinkle into the MVP race so what we're going to talk about next here is those top three teams that we're mentioning as far as that final water card spot the Mets the Cardinals and the Diamondbacks what's on their roster how are they going to make this push and then we'll close the show on some MVP stuff before we get to any of it though a word from our sponsors today's episode is brought to you by Liquid Ivy during these summer months when you're taking an America's pastime don't 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dollars that's right you could put it towards some memorabilia you've had your eye on or treat yourself to a premium sports network you earn and discover doubles see terms at discover dot com slash credit card stay up to date with all the latest in the world of sports by checking out locked on sports today streaming 24/7 on youtube as i said in the last segment i believe this wild card race is ultimately gonna come down to the diamondbacks in the Mets fighting it out for that final spot but we have to give the Cardinals credit they're right in this race and they did make a big trade at the deadline they add eric fettie to their rotation and tommy fan to their lineup there's something about seeing a guy go back to where their career started tommy fan in a Cardinals jersey just looks right he had his best season of his career in a Cardinals uniform he comes over hits a grand slam in his first game second game you like three for fourth two or three RBIs another great performance by him and that could inject some life into that lineup but i still believe the Cardinals are the crew third team among this race and the reason i look i believe that is they have yet to have that incredible month they're in this race because they have been 500 or slightly better each month of the season now you could say hey they're due to go off and maybe that's the case and they do have the the best franchise track record among these three teams but i look at their roster they got sunny gray in the rotation maybe the best picture of these three teams miles michaelis kyle gibson now eric fettie lands lens on the il when he comes back he be the fifth starter right now andre palante it's maybe the best rotation but not convincingly how much better is that than what the Mets have a severino when i uh kantana peterson and now blackbird i don't think it's significantly better the diamondbacks right now you got zach gallin you got brandon fott jordan montgomery start to throw the ball a little bit better ryan nelson and they really have a fist guard at the moment they've been getting by with some bull pen games maryle kelly and adwater rodriguez are both on the mend so they get one of those guys back maybe two that's going to help them a lot the thing for me though is you look at the components of these team the Mets and the diamondbacks have created great separation with their lineup particularly since june first the cardinals since that time are middle of the pack they're 14th and run scored 14th and home runs 14th in wrc plus wrc plus being way to runs creative plus and all encompassing offensive metric the measures hitters or teams in this case by a league average of a hundred so you look at the cardinals just slightly better than league average now you look at the diamondbacks in the Mets the diamondbacks lead major league baseball run scored since june first their eighth and home runs their third and wrc plus at 125 i believe the Mets are second and run scored across all of major league baseball second and home runs and then their first in wrc plus at 131 this is not taken to account wednesday's game regardless though the Mets have had the best lineup in baseball since june first the diamondbacks have not been that far behind i think these two teams have been the hottest in the national league lately and i don't see any reason why that would stop i look at the diamondbacks and i think they're getting stronger and stronger and that makes me a little bit nervous the cardinals are just fundamentally sound they don't have any clear weaknesses but i look at the best player on the cardinals and i'm really coming up empty on who exactly that is wilson contraris is having by far their best offensive season he did miss a big chunk of that when jadie martinez hit him in the rest um on that swing and knocked him out for a little bit alg burlson's having a solid season but there's not a lot of guys in that lineup in st louis that are having stand out years paul goldschmidt no one arunato on the other end of the spectrum are really battling with father time they're not having good seasons no one arunato has been a league average hitter paul goldschmidt has been worse than league average they're sitting at 11 home runs for arunato 16 for goldschmidt that's not great they have gotten some power production from burlson as i mentioned he's got the 120 wrc plus he's got 18 home runs 61 runs driven in no one gorman's got 19 home runs mason wins ben two avie giving them a great defensive shortstop but they don't have guys that are having really stand out offensive seasons you're the diambax could tell marty we're going to talk about more in the next segment has been on an absolute tear this season christian walker has been really really good they're starting to get more from gabby mareno jock peterson has been a great find for them as a left-handed part of a d h platoon uh so he's been really solid all of a sudden ayohanny osuarez is on a tear he's got 16 home runs on the season 10 of them came in the month of july so that's a really big piece for them corbin carol starting to figure it out piece by piece i don't know if they're gonna get the mvp version of corbin carol for a couple months but can they get an above average hitter you would think that that's of course still in there they started swinging a little bit better so i just look at that lineup and there's a lot of dangerous hitters in it and then you look at the Mets lineup and again a ton of dangerous hitters when you look at individual seasons guys with wrc pluses of 120 or better the Mets trounts both of these teams so they have way more above average hitters from lindor to nimo to vientos but we're gonna have to spend a whole show on at some point soon here because what he's doing is just spectacular 62 games 15 home runs 40 rbi's you guys remember three years ago i told you that mark vientos had 40 home run potential and i was banging the desk saying why isn't vientos getting mlb experience and why are you wasting at bats on jd davis well now all of a sudden vientos not only is doing it with the bat the glove has been way better made some nice plays in the field today but vientos has been i mean you can make good argument they're best offensive player he's been that good lately um you have al vera's and alanzo both over 120 when it comes to wrc pla's plus a glaze the it's over 150 jd martinez over 120 louis to wrens over 140 now you add in jesse winker who's had a great offensive season i think the Mets have the best lineup in this wildcard race which should bode well for them the problem i think they might have the worst pitching of these three teams now hopefully the additions the Mets made to their bullpen can help solidify things and maybe paul blackburn is going to be a nice find to hold down the back end of that rotation maybe you get christian scott back at some point who knows but i think if the Mets are going to make this run it's going to require and two more stand out months from their offense and it's going to require francesco endure playing at an mvp level so where we're going to close the show today is talking about the mvp race because i think lindor is one of five names that is in this race and can tell martinez is another one so i want to talk about those two guys and how a narrative conform for either of them if they lead their team to the playoffs for them to be a shocking mvp so we're going to go through that to close the show first though another word from our sponsors today's episode is brought to you by game time game time is the fastest and easy way to buy tickets for all the sports music comedy and theater events near you if you have not caught a Mets game this season what are you doing get out to the ballpark they're on the road right now when they come home make sure you get your tickets and get them through game time game time is the only ticketing at that gives you complete peace of mind with your purchase and they're the place to go for last minute tickets i don't even purchase my tickets in time basically walking into the stadium i pull open the game time app i look at all the different seats you can view the view from your seat before you purchase you get all in pressing up front so you're not surprised when you go to check out the hidden fees jump out at you you know what you're going to pay for for those seats and you can be all set checked out in two taps and have your tickets within a minute game time takes the guesswork at a buying tickets so download the game time app create an account use the code locked on mlb for twenty dollars off your first purchase terms apply again create an account redeem the code locked on mlb for twenty dollars off down the game that time app today last minute tickets lowest price guarantee delicious meets nutritious in the snack that packs a real protein punch wonderful pistachios one the highest protein nuts out there millitomas of lockdown diebacks here and i love these pistachios because each one ounce serving has six grams of protein giving you over 10 percent of your daily value so whether your pistachio puris who loves cracking open every night or you prefer the convenience of no show pistachios wonderful pistachios has got you covered grab wonderful pistachios and elevate your snacking game today visit wonderful pistachios.com to learn more here in every day list one of the show make sure you become a locked on that's insider this is our text and service we get updates from me anytime news breaks in the meds you can ask me questions anytime you get the lineup graphics sent to your phone each day so you know who's in the starting lineup before the meds play with that ever having to go on social media make sure you become a locked on that's insider by finding the link in the episode description but at subtext.com/lockgon meds let's talk the nl mvp race because it is very close as we enter play in august two months left and you have no idea who's going to be the mvp the american league it's another tight race you got erin judge you have goner henerson bobby wit but everyone's sort of things if erin judge stays healthy keeps producing he's going to be the guy the national league is way more wide open because the guy with the best offensive stats is show a autonomy he leads in war home runs rbi's he's got 28 stolen bases 32 home runs 76 rbi's he's been unbelievable but he's a dh and he would be the first dh only to win the mvp that's something that it would not surprise us at all if otani was the first to do something because he's always first but if you are really looking at an nvp narrative and you have to think about the dodgers who have gone through a million injuries this year and have so much talent granted at times a big part of that but they have never been at risk of not making the playoffs they have never felt it they're a team that just cruises through the season the guys put up big numbers they have a bunch of all-stars and then come october we find out who they really are that's the dodgers and if i'm a voter i have some fatigue on otani always being there i have some fatigue on the dodgers always being there and i have some fatigue on the idea i don't even some fatigue but i have some real apprehension towards voting a dh only as the mvp unless the statistical case is just overwhelming and it could get there for otani but it's not there yet number two in wins above replacement in the national league according to fan graphs right now is ellie de la cruise now his argument is gaudy stats because he's got 55 stolen bases 18 home runs he could end the year with 30 and 75 maybe even pushes towards uh you know 30 and 80 and that would be a spectacular season but doesn't have a lot of rbi's now that's a team stat but this is most valuable player doesn't team performance matter to some degree and the reds are a team that is falling out of this wild car race it's not his fault but he has not been the most valuable player guiding his team lifting them up pushing them into contention whereas the other two guys we're going to talk about lendor and marte have been so all three of them are bunched up when it comes to war i think that ellie de la cruise would have to hit some ridiculous benchmarks statistically and the other two would have to fall off as would otani for ellie to end up being the mvp the fifth guy is brits harper and that's best player best team voters could go that way but he already has won his mvp's and he is pretty far behind and wins above replacement at 3.8 compared to the other guys that are up at five wins so he's about a win behind with a couple months to play he can make that up if he gets hot and i would not count out brice harper if i was a betting man and i was looking at the odds and i'm not sure what they are i might tell you to to bet on harper just because he is uh safer pick to have two great months to close the season and then you might be looking at 110 win fillies team and say oh well brice harper was the best player on that team he's the most valuable i think there is a world though where this could come down to lindor and marte or really one of them whichever one drives their team into the playoffs might just be a very shocking but deserving mvp candidate so here's the case for both of them particularly lately since june first they have in the best two players in the national league lindor 3.4 f4 he has led all players in the national league and wins above replacement since june first marte not far behind at 3.2 tell marte is hitting 351 since then 433 on base 637 slug a 191 wrsc plus which is identical to shohayotani lindor's offensive numbers not quite as overwhelming chewy need to average 371 on base 545 slug 160 wrsc plus with gold glove defense which gets that war number up he's got 13 home runs 14 stolen bases 38 runs scored and 34 RBIs since june first marte 14 home runs 37 runs scored 43 RBIs 5 stolen bases lindor's at 22 and 22 on the season when it comes to stolen bases and home runs he's gonna get to 30 30 again he might even push for 35 35 there's a chance of that i look at where the meds are where the dynamics are where this mvp races and i'm not saying the meds need lindor to win the mvp to make the playoffs but they needed to finish in the top three and one of those names might be otani the other one might be alley could be brice harper but Francisco lindor has to be better than could tell marte down the stretch and the meds is a team obviously have to be better and it's not all lindor's shoulders but i do want to acknowledge what an incredible season it has been for Francisco lindor and man if i could be it be on the podium for um advocating a case and i'll do that now i really think that this guy has done everything this year to really be the embodiment of what a most valuable player is there's no question who the best player in the meds is this season it's Francisco lindor and if you look at everything he has done for this team and it goes beyond just the offensive numbers although his move to lead us but has been the catalyst that started everything for sisrael lindor when that whole player's only meeting happened and i've said this before on this show so those of you who heard me uh you know on this diatribe in the past bear with me but i talk about it a lot lindor holds the player's only meeting at the horridial best launches that love into the stands once the team to be accountable watch last year as the meds saw season slip away and doesn't want it to happen again once the nip it in the bud a month earlier than last year where it was a june swoon that killed them this was a horrible may and they had to get things right and in two months this team transformed and it was under lindor's leadership he holds that player's only meeting to get everyone to be accountable and there's just been a better process in place ever since then he gets in front of the media answers all the tough questions an 11 minute media session talking about why he held the meeting what it was about what the meds have to do and we have since seen all of that realized also the game after that meeting he himself wins a baseball game has the game winning rbi if i'm not mistaken or squares the game winning run had a home run earlier i don't have the exact stats in front of me but i'll tell you you go back you watch that the highlights of that game it was lindor himself that got the mess to that first victory after the meeting against the dyan backs funny enough messon dyan backs split that four game series they got another series coming up at the end of this month which is going to be very critical for what happens in this playoff race the door has been doing it with the glove doing it with the bat doing with his leadership you see mark vientos and what he's done defensively and he's talked about it what's been the big change it says you know it's not that he wasn't trying but he said in the past there was just a lack of focus they said his pre pitch has gotten a lot better and he credits lindor for helping him focus for sort of you know getting that in his brain that that he needs to be just a little more locked in and you're seeing that you know really play out because mark vientos he's not fleet of foot we saw that as he tried to catch a pop up today or he did catch the second one the slide and grab that was really nice but we saw he a little bit cement floated there you think petalons have beat mark vientos in a race random side thought but i actually don't know i think running like first the third i would probably take p regardless mark vientos he has a great arm so he has a tool that should play at their base and it has and we're all of a sudden seeing some pretty soft hands it was just cutting out those mental mistakes and you i'm not giving lindor all of the credit for mark vientos his success this year because that's primarily just vientos but is the fence of success in particular i'm going to give lindor a good piece of that and just the leadership that has been felt with the guy standing to his right day in day out in the infield and just the rest of the team so leadership being a huge component in lindor's MVP case that's where the Mets standing at the end of the season is going to really drive the narrative on him but if the new york Mets find themselves as the final wildcard team or even better maybe they exceed expectations maybe they finish ahead of the Padres or ahead of the Braves they're right there against all those teams right now and Francisco lindor finishes with 35 and 35 he drives in 100 and he's got a seven and a half wind season when it's all said and done that could be right atop the league or atop the league outside of Otani potentially i really do believe we could see this as the one season where Francisco lindor could win an MVP or bare minimum finish in the top three and he's going to be the guy that in my mind decides this season for the Mets and Francisco lindor tails off and look he'd still have a great season even if he did i don't think the Mets are going to find themselves in a playoff spot but he's the one guy that could have a monster final two months that can put the Mets in a playoff position and put him squarely in that MVP race it's going to be fun to watch it all play out and i'll be here with you every step of the way if you were a daily show on the new york Mets i appreciate all of you who tuned in off day on thursday so i'm going to do some prospect stuff on tomorrow's show not quite sure what that's going to be it might be an updated top 10 of the top prospect in that system also david's turns today in a podcast talked about still having some help that could be on the way in Syracuse this year so we'll touch on that as well make sure again you follow rate review where we get your podcast so you don't miss it subscribe for watching 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