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Locked On Mets - Daily Podcast On The New York Mets

Now in the First Wild Card Spot, Should the Mets Go All-in?

Duration:
35m
Broadcast on:
27 Jul 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

If the New York Mets decide to go all-in for this season, could trading for Blake Snell make sense?  

Host Ryan Finkelstein breaks down why Snell to the Mets is a sneaky good fit for a trade, especially if Michael Conforto comes back in the trade.

Also, which Mets prospects should be untouchable at the trade deadline? 

 

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It's the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Should the New York Mets go all in on this season in his Blake Snell, the piece that would put them over the top, we're going to talk about that more on today's show. You are a Lockdown Mets, your daily New York Mets Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Mets fans, you're listening to Lockdown Mets, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown Mets your first listen every day, Lockdown Mets is free and available on all platforms including YouTube. On the show today, we are talking about one all in move the Mets could make at this deadline and that is trading for Blake Snell and Michael Conforto. Might sound crazy but I'm going to walk you through it throughout the show today in the first segment. I'll talk about why the Mets might consider trading for a pitcher like Snell to potentially be part of a playoff rotation this year, even though it's going to cost a lot of money. Second segment, we'll talk about a Michael Conforto reunion because there has been some rumor interest there, so I want to talk about why I think that is a really nice fit, especially if it's packaged with Snell. Then in the final segment, we're talking prospects who are untouchable at this deadline, so we're going to go through all of those names and also the names that I think the Mets could look to deal. I already teased one of these in the last show, Ryland Thomas was on this list, then he got traded. So we're going to talk about all of that. Before we get into it though, I'm your host Ryan Fickelstein. If you want to find any of my work, follow me on X and Fickelstein Ryan, you can also find some of my work at JustBaseball.com where I work as the managing editor. This is the second part of a two-part show today, and in part one, I discussed the Mets beating the Braves on Friday night, moving ahead of them in the wildcard race. They now hold on to the top wildcard seed. I also talked about Coach Daisenga, who pitched brilliantly until he got hurt again. Pull the calf muscle. What does that mean here? Strain calf, he could be out for two weeks, he could be out for a lot longer. We still don't know the severity. This is a Mets team that felt like they were on the precipice of being a legitimate contender, and they still are. But there was a moment in that game, when the Mets piled on seven runs off three homers in one inning against Charlie Morton in the Braves. It looked like they were clearly going to win this game, and Coach Daisenga was dealing nine strikeouts in five innings. It felt like everything was coming together at the perfect time. A lot of times, teams might throw out there, "Oh, our guide coming off the IL is going to be the big deadline acquisition." But this year, that was the case for the Mets, because of pitchers who could get dealt at this deadline. You'd be hard-pressed to find a better one than Coach Daisenga, and he was healthy, ready to go. You're pairing with Luis Severino. All right, the Mets got the makings of a good playoff rotation. That still could be the case, but even if it is, you could make the argument that this team deserves more in that rotation. With Sangha, I felt like they were fine. I thought, "All right. Get some bullpen arms. This is an amazing season. It's been a lot of fun. Build out a great bullpen, close out this season strong, and if you can bash your way through the playoffs, maybe you can make some noise." But this is a team that might deserve more than that. Francisco Lindor, your franchise player, is playing better baseball than we've seen in the Mets uniform since David Wright and his prime. And there's not a close second to what Lindor is doing right now. And he's been doing it the last couple of years, but this is the best version of Francisco Lindor we have seen in the Mets uniform. He is legitimately an MVP candidate right now today. You have a lineup around him that clicks. It works. Nimmo in his prime, Alonso, final year, potentially. You could say, "Oh, trade Alonso. That's ridiculous now." Pete Alonso, he could get hot down the stretch. JD Martinez, in an opposite field grand slam in the game on Friday night, we know he can even be better. The fact that those two guys haven't even been at their best lately shows you how deep and dangerous this lineup is. The Mets had the best to do it, and we're going to talk about another one they could add potentially in this deal with Blake Snell, Michael Confordo. We'll spend some time on that in the next segment. But this team could really use is another pitcher to hand the ball to an apply-off game. Who is that guy? Right now, what have we seen at this deadline so far? Zach Gafflin, the first pitcher move, goes to the Orioles. Nice add. Number three starter. They already have Corbin Burns. They have Grayson Rodriguez. It's sort of a perfect fit for them. It kind of shows that they're not going to go all the way in this year. You never know them. Maybe they do swing another big deal. Maybe they're the team that gets Gary Crochet. But we still don't know. Who else is available? Just mentioned Crochet. This is an interesting target for the Mets. But he comes with a ton of risk. The guy has already eclipsed his career innings total this season as a starting pitcher. He's been one of the best in the American League, one of the best in baseball, as Cy Young candidate. But reports have come out this week that if he is to pitch into October, he wants a contract extension. Otherwise, he's not pitching. And he has ever read to do that, he's blown past his career innings, like I just mentioned. Now his intention is to remain in the rotation throughout the rest of this season, because he thinks that is best for his health. I know it's just baseball. Our guy Elijah Evans had talked to Crochet prior to this season about being a starting pitcher and mentioned that he feels better about his health on a starters routine. So the idea of getting Crochet and make some starts until he gets hangout back and then being a lights out option in the bullpen, I think that's off the table. So while Crochet is the sexy name right now, it doesn't make a ton of sense and he's going to cost a lot of prospects to get. Nathan Evaldi, if the Rangers decide to trade pitchers, he could be on the move. Max Scherzer, when he comes back to the Mets, I sort of doubt it, but he's a name that's potentially available. You go through it though, there's not a ton of Jack Flaherty as a rental from the Tigers. That's a potential guy that's out there, but there's just not a lot of ton of guys. And honestly, the Mets traded for Jack Flaherty as good as his pitch this year. I don't know what to expect when he comes over. He was traded last year. It didn't pitch well. This is a different Jack Flaherty, but still, I don't know what he looks like in a plavkin. This all leads me to talk about Blake's now. All of a sudden, he is on the market and that is the San Francisco Giants telling you that he's on the market. John Heyman tweeted out today that there's five teams that are shown interest or actually said have shown some amount of interest in snow. They're calling, they're asking, the Giants are getting further and further away from this race. Blake snails on a big contract, two years, $62 million. Every intricate deal, year one, $17 million on him, bonus, $15 million of salary, year two, $15 million deferred until 2027. So very complicated deal from the Mets perspective, luxury tax hit, $29.7 million. That's going to cost the Mets a ton. They're paying 110 cents on the dollar. So you can do the math there. Whatever that salary is for the rest of this year, plus the luxury tax penalty. And then if he accepts his player option, he's going to cost a ton, which means he's not going to cost a ton of prospects to get. You know, the Giants are shopping them, but now potentially, but they can't expect a huge return. The guy hasn't pitched well this year. He's had two I.L. stints and his ERA, I didn't even pull it for the show today because it would make you hate this on him, but that feels disingenuous for me. I actually looked at his last three starts because that's what I'm going to base my case on, but this year he is boarding a five, eight, three ERA is only pitch 41 and two third innings multiple I.L. stints. Like I said, really has struggled without getting a full spring train to get ready for this year because he's signed so late. But here's the case to be it on Blake's now. His three starts in July since coming back off the I.L. Five innings pitched against the Blue Jays, one hit three walks, three strikeout, no runs. The Twins, seven innings of one hit ball, no walks, eight strikeouts, then versus the Dodgers, six innings, four hits, two run runs, two walks, four strikeouts. It was up to 83 pitches. This would be a massive gamble on Blake Snell, but they're sealing. There's upside to dream on. He was the best pitcher in the national league last year by a wide margin pitched to a two to five ERA and 180 innings with 234 strikeouts and even better over his last 23 starts of the season. This guy pitched away 1.2 ERA with 186 strikeouts and 135 innings pitched. Now, it could be a rental. If everything goes right, Blake Snell would get traded to the Mets, pitch amazing. They win the World Series. He'd be able to ride that off, hit the free agent market and he's off your books anyway. Or it doesn't go well. He's on your books for a lot of money next year. That risk and reward, that's where it doesn't cost a ton to get him. But the Mets are the one team that's able to take that risk, a financial risk, not as big of a deal as Steve Cohen. Other teams out there that might be in the Dodgers make sense. Are the Yankees willing to spend? There was some thought about them going in on Snell in the off season. Do they do it now? I don't know who else is out there. John Heyman says five teams. Who else is in the mix? Are the Orioles doing this? No. Phillies maybe. Phillies aren't interested. One. I'd actually put that one out there as a potential one. The Braves are they willing to take on the money? It's very tough to find a fit for Blake Snell. But if you're the Mets and you can get this guy without giving up any of your untouchable prospects, you slide him into your rotation and you get Michael confronted a boot. That might just be the deal that could be all in for this season that doesn't hurt your future that ends up making a lot of sense once the trades finalize. So I want to talk about that a little bit more in the next segment, particularly the conformal piece of it and then what the roster would look like if the Mets swung that type of a trade. So we'll get to that just a minute first though, a word from our sponsors today's episodes brought to you by game time. 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I'm all in on signing my hook and for no training for my cook and for go getting my cook and for go back in the Met's uniform why I'm a Met Homer I guess I don't know but to me Michael Kinfordo is just that perfect fit for the Mets and this is the first time I actually think it's going to happen or could happen because Mike Puma reported today if the New York Mets have shown interest in San Francisco Giants outfielder Michael Kinfordo there's also been some reports that the Mets are looking for a left handed bat for their outfield enter Michael Kinfordo I talked about this as a possibility in my show breaking down 10 bats the Mets could target at the deadline and there were not a lot of good ones Michael Kinfordo was pretty high up on the list there's not a ton of pieces who could be dealt one of them I mentioned on that show was Randy Rosa Reyna he's already been traded he's a mariner now Michael Kinfordo makes a lot of sense on this team how's he hitting you ask not well over his last 15 games Michael Kinfordo is batting 167 there's last 30 games he's been 205 for this season spend 226 with a 298 on base and a 415 slug 10 on runs 40 RBI's and he was great in the early months of the season so why am I all in on Michael Kinfordo the vibes of course but more than that I actually think he fits this Ross really well here's what you have to think about is Michael Kinfordo better than DJ Stewart if you're still thinking about it what have you been watching because DJ Stewart has been awful this is a matter of getting a better upgrade when it comes to an out filter to slot into your team the Mets just signed Jackie Bradley Jr. from what's at the independent league wherever the long island ducks play I mean look I hope JBJ is great Syracuse and maybe has an impact for the Mets but that's not likely Michael Kinfordo has been on a big league roster and the underlying data as I mentioned a couple weeks ago is really good the bat speed still there is in the 69th percentile which is super nice among MLB hitters his heart hit rate 73 percentile barrel rate 75th percentile expected slug is that 447 that's still very strong chase rate isn't crazy he's playing in a cavernous ballpark on a bad team get him with the New York Mets where the vibes are going crazier right now have him holding an OMG sign and my heart might melt this is the guy to get because it's not going to cost a ton and he's an upgrade so he is going to make your team better doesn't mean he's your starter because guess what Jeff McNeil swinging a hot bat he's just a better option than Ben Gamble and DJ Stewart and if you get him in a Blake Snell trade when now you're taking on a ton of money for the Giants you're doing them a favor you probably don't have to send out much to get these guys but they're sealing for both of these additions you could see Michael Kinfordo hitting two home runs at a playoff game because we saw it okay you could see Michael Kinfordo having a hot September where he hits nine home runs because he had a good month this season and the underlying data still tells us that he can swing a good bat he can still drive the baseball he loved playing in New York he's super tight with a lot of these guys so he fits in like a glove the two guys that like most in my my article my podcast which actually did turn into an article thank you Tyler Antonelli who works with us over here on the social media side as well with locked on that's any rights for us it just baseball but that was based on my show where I broke down ten bats the Mets can target and the two I like the most are Mark Cannon Michael Kinfordo because I'm looking at slight upgrades who would fit into this clubhouse because I don't think they need a lot offendively let's say you get Michael Kinfordo what does that look like Lindor and Nemo JD Martinez Pinalonzo Marc Vientos Francisco Alvarez and that Jose Glazius all feel like everyday players Jeff McNeil right back to being one of those guys with the way he's swinging it Harrison Bader dealing with an ankle injury right now day today he's your center fielder if not him you got Tyrone Taylor and if you have Michael Kinfordo all right let's say Bader goes down when I can put Kinfordo and right McNeil left Nemo and center you're good darling Marte comes back our Kinfordo is just off the bench and even if you don't get Marte back he's still met me on the bench so let's just say that you're starting line up is what I laid out where it's Bader and center McNeil and right Nemo and left and all those other guys like Lacey is playing at second base your bench is Michael Kinfordo giving you left handed pop on the bench that they haven't had because DDS Jordan hasn't been good Tyrone Taylor for defense Luis Terrens is your backup catcher and maybe Brett Beatty and the reason why I say Brett Beatty since the all-star break one of my insiders pointed this out the insiders I'm talking about is our locked on met insiders are texting service he's very you know keyed in on watching Syracuse Mets games I didn't notice it because I was on vacation really but coming out of the break in Syracuse Brett Beatty has started five to six games at second base what did I tell you a month ago maybe six weeks ago when Brett Beatty starts playing nearly every day at second base that's when you know it might be coming back soon so I'd imagine that there's a world soon where Ben Gamel or DJ Stewart's gonna get sent down to Syracuse or for Gamel I think he'd be DFA'd first do it he'd be sent down and Beatty's gonna come up because Jeff McNeil gonna play more outfield you have Beatty to spare Vientos and Iglesias in the infield let me give you another left-handed bat at the bench now you bring confluence to the mix that's a damn good bench if you have conforto Beatty and Taylor with Tyrone's and then guess what if Johnny Marte gets healthy back on the field Beatty can go down and now you have conforto Marte Taylor off your bench McNeil gives you that flexibility and maybe Marte starting McNeil's on the bench or Glace's is on the bench whoever and ends up shaking out that is a ridiculously deep team so to me Michael conforto with or without Blake Snell makes a ton of sense now with Blake Snell again a lot of upside and your playoff rotation could be Luis Severino Blake Snell and Kodai Senga not necessarily in that order it's just severing us the one guy who's gonna be there and healthy but if Blake Snell pitches as best he could be your ace if Kodai Senga pitches as best he could be your ace now all of a sudden everything coincides the way you want it to you got a playoff rotation that's nasty you have a starting lineup that's got the thump to really drive you throughout a playoff run and hopefully the Mets add to this bullpen which leads me to our final segment of the show today when it comes to prospects the Mets could deal who is untouchable we'll go through that in the last segment first though a word from our sponsors 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time to add but there was always that idea that you do not want to sacrifice your future for 2024 so there are still prospects that I think will be untouchable at this deadline let's talk about those names first Brandon Sprote untouchable represent the Mets in the futures game has frontline potential as a starting pitcher you're not trading Brandon Sprote and Christian skies right there with them top pitching prospect in the Mets system Sprote maybe has that title by the end of the year regardless those two arms are your future in the rotation and they're both close well Scott's already here Sprote could be part of the rotation next year you're not the only them Jet Williams is the other one came into this season as the top prospect in the system haven't seen them all year due to injury doesn't matter you're not trading and those three to me are the most untouchable but there's still more untouchables that I have here Ryan Clifford I would not trade him for any player at this deadline probably not in general I just want to see Clifford finish his development with the Mets and come up to the big league roster because he has the chance to be a star player with a ton of pop he has the best power in the system right now he was the second piece the Mets got back in the Justin Verlander trade and the funny thing was you go back a year ago listen to that show I think I was very high on Clifford and I said he might end up being the better piece in this deal the way he's played this year you never know because he's really started swinging well in double A and he's still super young there's a lot to be excited about with Ryan Clifford the Mets are not dealing him Drew Gilbert I still deem untouchable but the funny thing is he's more touchable than Clifford to me because Carson bench makes Gilbert a little bit more expendable the Mets just drafted Carson bench he's gonna just stick to playing outfield he's not gonna be a two-way player he's got five tool potential and he's just a really good ball player they're similar in some ways I think the Mets hope that bench has more upside regardless I wouldn't trade either at this deadline so that's six players that to me are firm untouchables Brandon Sprok Christian Scott jett Williams Ryan Clifford Drew Gilbert and Carson bench might just be the top six prospects in this system now we get to two more that I think will also not be dealt under any circumstances Jonah Tom had an unbelievable season so far was just lights out important Lucy under promotion to high a Brooklyn was he 20 years old still I think and the guy has just put up great numbers I think he's staying no matter what the other one Giovanni Rodriguez the top international signing from this last class the Mets had catching prospect I don't see the Mets training him especially at this deadline now we get to my list of prospects that I would only want the mess to deal in a blockbuster and we start with the guy that was very much on the line with and that is blade tidwell I think blade tidwell is the best prospect I would deal at this deadline he's in trouble I had some mixed results really good pitching prospect I think he's a little bit expendable now that you have Brandon Sprok really firing on all cylinders but I do not want the mess to trade lead to blade tidwell and I don't think they will the next guy in that same ilk for me you might think I was going to say luise and hula kunya and we will get to him but first I got to talk about Brett Beatty who is not technically a prospect and there has been some rumblings oh maybe the match trade Brett Beatty maybe they deal him I think you'd be trading low on Brett Beatty right now and I still think with the uncertainty surrounding penal on so this is not the time to deal Brett Beatty there is still a world where this guy's a really good player he was a top 20 prospect in baseball for a reason he showed this year he could be a very good defensive third baseman I still believe in that bat even though a lot of people don't I know this Mets fans that are totally on a different wavelength with me on this one but you know what there was also Mets fans who were out on Marc Vientos last year so these guys can come around there's a world where Brett Beatty's are starting third baseman in 2025 and Marc Vientos is your starting first baseman and that's really plan B I think if Alonzo walks this offseason so I would not trade Brett Beatty either that leads me to Luis and hula kunya if it was the right deal I would train him and I have floated the idea of trading a kunya whenever I talked about a superstard trade this past offseason with that said I think a kunya bare minimum is going to be a very good bench player in the big leagues I think even this year if the Mets have struggled to find the right fit as the final piece of their bench a kunya might be the perfect player to go into October with I remember when the royals for the world series they called up uh Mondecy I'm blanking on his first name so I apologize but was it is that Alberto Mondecy now it's now I got to find it I apologize Mondecy out of Berto Mondecy I guess I did nail that but they called him up for the world series a kunya to me could be the final piece of the Mets bench if you call him up and you end up adding him to the roster he gives you speed he gives you defense there's a world where he makes sense as a bench piece this year and moving forward there's still some upside there I would not trade him but if it's the right deal maybe you talk me into it haezus Baez and Jeremy Rodriguez are in that grouping as well to me Baez had a great run through St. Lucie ended up in Brooklyn so far this year has shown really good power numbers at the Mets hope would translate when he was hitting a bunch of home runs and Dominican Summer League a couple years ago had a rough first year state side last year he's rebounded I would not trade Baez but if it was the right deal I'd be talked into it same thing with Jeremy Rodriguez the prospect that came back in the Tommy fan trail last year and then immediately started shooting up prospect boards he's been great in the complex league I'd be hesitant to move him as I would with Colin Hauck the Mets first round pick from last year hasn't been great this season but I think it's too soon to trade him if another team's enabored by him though and that's the piece that gets the big deal done I wouldn't lose too much sleep over it at least right now it's still it's scary with the upside that he they has but yeah you got to get to get Noel McLean is in this grouping as well has great stuff but has struggled in double A I think the Mets hold on to him because of that upside but other teams would certainly be very interested in nabbing him so he could get a big deal done as one of the prospects for sure if Noel McLean is the piece to get you Blake Snell and Michael Confordo and that's really it it's Noel McLean in a player to be named later Noel McLean and somewhat further down your system I entertain it if that's the piece that potentially gets you an ace for the playoff push again you got to think about the fact that the other team has to get something in these trades and that's why Ronnie Maristo is on this list for me as well I don't think the Mets deal him but to say he's untouchable I don't think that that's fair either now we get to the final list this is a list that I sent last and all three of these lists to the lock by Mets insiders today when I was on my flight for those of you who aren't a lock by Mets insider this is our texting service so you get inside access to the show sometimes you get some of my sort of thought processes before I put a show together I sent it to the insiders first you get that inside look into the show you also can ask me questions anytime and when news breaks on the Mets I sent text to the insiders first here is my list number one prospect I'd be ready to deal right now particularly for bullpen help Kevin Parada number two on my list Kevin Parada number three on my list Kevin Parada I'd love to the match trick Kevin Parada at this deadline he is starting to swing it really well over the past month and double a deal him while you can get a piece that's a that's a guy that I think is actively available the reason being I don't think he's going to be a good enough catcher to hold his own at the position of the big leagues I don't believe enough in the bat to think that he could be a first baseman or a DH so I'm out on Kevin Parada but I'm sure that means a lot of teams probably are too Alex Ramirez is another one that I'm sort of out on but the Mets protected him from the rule five draft maybe there's another team that sees some value there Ryland Thomas got you something Alex Ramirez might be able to get you a reliever Marco Vargas is on this list the guy that got in the David Robertson trade last year maybe you just trade him again to get a reliever back in the season where you're going for it I also put Ron Hernandez on this list he was the other piece in that trade last year for David Robertson so both guys that are probably top 30 prospects in this system but again I would lose sleep over dealing them Nick Morabito he is sort of a Ryland Thomas but at a lower level you hope that he can be a little bit more because he has speed as a skill that Thomas doesn't so that's the difference there Morabito could give you elite speed good defense and great bat to ball skills he's an interesting prospect where I trade him if it meant a piece that could put you over the top this year absolutely I did have Thomas on this list which was what made that so funny when the standing trade came in the fact that I just said Thomas is a piece who could get moved boom he's moved and it made sense to me why he got dealt because his ceiling is fourth outfielder probably so I get why they traded him then there's a bunch of arms that I think other teams would be interested in because they are starting pitchers in the upper levels of the minor leagues Justin Jarvis is one Tyler Stewart is another I'd be more willing to trade Jarvis than Stewart but I wouldn't lose sleep over trading Stewart Mike Vassel I would definitely consider trading he's getting close to the big leagues other teams might value that of course but I don't think that he has ceiling a ceiling much higher than a fifth starter so I'd move him if that's going to get you the piece you need Dom Hamill I'd be less likely to move I think of those three Stewart Vassel Hamill's the one that I would like to keep the most because I could see him pitching very well in a big league bullpen if nothing else and he has the chance to still stick as a starter so I'd like to keep Dom Hamill but I'd be more willing to deal in than any of the other guys have talked about in that previous list right like I'd rather see the match trade Dom Hamill than Noel McLean other guys that I just threw in at the end Carlos Cortez Luke Ritter JT Schwartz not really considered big time prospects but pieces that had performed well in the minor leagues that maybe netch is something for Ritter and Schwartz very well this season guys similar to a Thomas that you can deal for a leader that maybe a team is trying to get off of Andrew chafin a good example of that guy making a little bit of money maybe you send a Luke Ritter who has hit really well in triple A and you get that deal done I don't know if that's enough but that's just an example of what could happen at this deadline it's gonna be a lot of fun I think we thought this might be a quiet deadline it's been anything but that so far I'm excited to see what moves the Mets make next and I hope this two-part episode today really primed you for the road ahead I'm very excited to be home for the deadline appreciate all of you who tuned in when I was away and also for those of you who tuned into both parts of today's two-part episode make sure you 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