The second half of the New York Mets season is finally upon us!
With three more series left before trade deadline week, the Mets have a 10-game test that they must pass to ensure that they will be buyers at the deadline.
Host Ryan Finkelstein breaks down the road ahead to kick off the second half, and gives both reasons to believe and those not to believe in the Mets as a playoff team this year.
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It's the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. The all-star break is over, Metz baseball is finally back, I guess you're ready for the second half of the season on today's show. You are locked on Metz, your daily New York Metz podcast. Note of the locked-on podcast network, your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Metz fans, you're listening to Lockdown, Metz, part of the Lockdown Podcast network, your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown, Metz, your first listen every day. Lockdown, Metz, is free and available on all platforms, including YouTube. On today's show, we have a second half of baseball to preview in the first segment. I want to discuss the final test that Metz have ahead over the next 10 games before trade deadline week to prove that they should be buyers in the second segment. I'm going to give you some reasons to believe in the New York Metz to actually become a playoff team this year. Then in the final segment, I'm going to give you two reasons why the Metz might not make the playoffs this year. I will also preview lies ahead with the pitching in particular for the Metz and their upcoming series against the Miami Marlins. Before we get to any of that though, I'm your host Ryan Fickelstein, if you want to find any of my work Fami on X at Fickelstein, Ryan, could also find some of my writing at JustBaseball.com where I work as the managing editor. This episode of Lockdown, Metz brought you by Booking.com Booking.EA, the rest day can make you a fan of any city, even your rivals, check out Booking.com for your stay today. Isn't it great to have Metz baseball back because I'll tell you what, I will get an answer over the last couple of days. You don't realize how much you miss it until it goes away because throughout the season you might have a day off on Monday or Thursday, but that might come once every couple of weeks. You get so much into the routine of there always being a game each day. There's always something to think about, to talk about, to watch. And then he also comes and we're just sitting on our hands for four days and I think you feel it a lot more when the team is going well because I don't remember the break being this long and slow monotonous last year because maybe I wasn't as excited for Metz baseball to come on back in 2023, but this is a team that I'm all the way bald and I know a lot of Metz fans are. It's been so much fun to watch, but they are in a very, very interesting stretch of their season. Over the last couple of days we've been talking a lot about the Metz buying up the trade deadline. On Wednesday I had a whole show on all the outfielders that are on the market that Metz could be interested in, tried to replace Charlie Marte and bolster their lineup. Yesterday I went through five different teams that the Metz could be on the phone with to get some relief help at the deadline and I really touched on, I don't even know, probably 20 plus relievers that could be of interest for the New York Metz. But to be buyers you got to prove it all the way through and the Metz have done an amazing job to put themselves in position to buy. You take a step back now with the also bringing a thick man, a 40 game stretch where they went 27 and 13, they won eight series, they split four, they only lost one, they also swept four series, so those four that they split, you pair it with those sweeps and it's almost like you had won 12 series and only lost one just when it comes to what your record looked like through that stretch. In the next segment I'm going to talk about reasons to believe in this team and the offense is an absolute reason. They have been the best offense in baseball throughout this 40 game period and now you look at what is ahead. You are right there on the precipice of buying, you're right there and there's been a lot of stories that went up today or a couple at least, one from the New York Post, one from Newsday just talking about the idea of buying from the New York Post, it was mentioning how Steve Cohen would love to invest in this team. He would love to see this team make a run and the Metz are in position, they don't want to let that just pass them by which is good to hear. In Newsday Tim Healy talked to a lot of the players and he had a lot of quotes from J.D. Martinez who discussed different deadlines throughout his career, he mentioned how in 2021 they felt like as a team the boss of Red Sox, they were good enough to win. They were in first place in the deadline, they didn't do enough to bolster that roster, they did make the playoffs, they even made the LCS, but they fell short and they felt like other teams got better around them. You heard that with Seattle, I think it was last year where the Mariners end up getting eliminated near the end there and the Rangers and the Astros shoot ahead and there was some vocal players talking about the fact that other teams got better at the deadline, they did not. The Rangers got Max Scherzer, they got Jordan Montgomery, the Astros got Justin Burlander and those teams ended up, you know, edging out the Mariners. So this is real, the clubhouse is expecting a buyer at the deadline. That's what they want. They even talked about 2018, J.D. Martinez did, how the Red Sox were in a position where all they really thought they needed was bullpen help and they got it, but they also got Steve Pierce at the deadline and Steve Pierce was great for them down the stretch and ended up being the World Series MVP. So you never really know what piece you might need and whoever it is, it could be some surprise out of left field that David Sterns, you know, gets some stud right fielder that I'm not even thinking about. I didn't even talk about it on my show, it's like, "Wow, the Mets got him." And then all of a sudden that guy catches like fire and is a pivotal forest on the stretch, you never really know. But to get to that point, there's still 10 games, 11 technically until you actually get to the deadline, but I look at the road ahead and once you get to deadline week and once you get to, which I think the deadline's on, what, a Tuesday, yeah, it's a Tuesday. So once you get to that Monday, the decision will have been made and honestly, it'll probably have been made before that. I would be shocked at this team sold at this point. I think they're going to play out the string and they would have to have a drastic fall over the next three series here to have gone to the point where the Mets are like, "All right, we're going to trade penal on." So I just don't foresee that happening. Now, how aggressive are they going to be to buy though? How much do they believe? What prospects are they willing to put on the table for this season? A season that is honestly sort of just gravy for the Mets. It's not one that they went into the year necessarily expecting it to be the season they win the World Series. They went into this year thinking, "All right, we can compete. We can put ourselves in position." And then at the deadline, maybe you make smooths. They've done that almost, but there's still 10 games here. There's three more series before you get to that trade deadline. You've got four in Miami, which are so crucial that the team that you should be. Then you go to the Bronx, you play the Yankees for two games and the Yankees are not playing their best baseball. That's for sure. But going into the break, they play the Orioles in a very tough series. That is the two teams that are battling out on top of the at least. They were a ninth inning meltdown away from sweeping the Baltimore Orioles. I think with the Mets, they went into this break like, "Man, I'm sure they appreciate what they've done, but I'm positive that a lot of those players, I would like to just get right back on the field to keep playing games." The Yankees have spent the opposite. This has been a nice respite for them. A godsend to just get a couple days to sit back and say, "All right, we're in a good spot. Let's flush the last couple of weeks and get ready for our stretch run." So I think the Yankees are going to be a tough team for those couple of games. Then you've got the Braves for four, and I'll tell you what, the Braves and the Phillies are still on this schedule a lot for the Mets. Every time that they face one of those two teams, they are going to see red. They're going to want to do everything they can to knock the Mets out of the playoffs because that's what this rivalry is all about in the National League. Those three teams in particular and players take it seriously. Now you're looking at this period, 10 games, go out and be a winning team. That's what I'd say, win six. And the Mets can do their work early if they handle business in Miami. If they just win this series, take three games, then you split the Yankees series, split the Braves series, guess what? That is a six and four stretch. And you'll be right there sitting, what, four games over 500, ready for Steve Cohen to invest some more money in this team, David Stearns to make the right trades. I think they'd be willing and ready to do that. What you don't want is to leave a sour taste in their mouth right before the decisions are made because then when you're in that position where you got to give up a prospect and it might be some 18 year old that you really like, but it gets the deal done to get you the missing piece for a team that can make a push this year. If you're a last memory, it's some bad baseball, you might just hold on to that kid and stand ahead and do nothing or even trade a Luis Severino or Chamanayan or a Jose Quintana. And I've thrown some cold water on the idea that they would actually do that, that they would trade a starting pitcher to bolster their bullpen. I've seen that tossed around to get some prospects. I honestly think that those guys have become too integral to this team just as much as you talk about the message you sent to your clubhouse by buying you, all of a sudden ripped Luis Severino out of that clubhouse, who's well liked, who has been a consistent force for you in that rotation, you pull them out, you pull out Jose Quintana, who's a veteran leader, you pull out Chamanaya, that's not going to be received well. So I really do think the Mets have done enough to at least impact this deadline and not be sellers. I don't see a world even if the Mets lost every game where Peter Lanza gets traded. But this is the last big test here, it's 10 games, three series, handle business, and then the reinforcements will come and you got to arrest the team, ready to do it with a good series to start it all off in Miami. So what we're going to talk about next here is reasons to believe, and the reasons why the New York Mets should be able to make a real run this season, we'll get to that in just a minute. First though, a word from our sponsors. This episode of Lockdown Mets has brought you by booking.com booking. Yeah, with summer travel heating up, especially travel for baseball games, it's time to explore those U.S. cities. You've always secretly wanted to learn more about yes, we're talking about your rival cities and right now the Mets are in Miami, it's not too late. Head over to booking.com book a stay and get down here for this series. If you're already here, that's great. I will be there at the game on Friday night and come by, say hi, but regardless, with hotels, bed and breakfast, vacation rentals, resorts, and so much more on booking.com, you might just find your perfect stay even in your baseball rival city. It's just a stretch run here. You want to make sure you catch the Mets before it's too late this season, and the right stay can make you a fan of any U.S. city, even your rivals. So book today on booking.com on the site or in the booking.com app. Today's episode's also brought to you by prize picks. Prize picks is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Unlike other apps on prize picks, it's just you against the numbers. All you have to do is pick more or less on two to six players to have projections. You watch the winnings roll in. Get it on the daily action with your friends and become part of the prize pick community today. You can now win up to 100 times your money on prize picks with as little as four correct picks. You can turn $10 into $1,000. If you're looking for promotions, prize picks has got you covered every week from lowering select player stat projections on Tuesdays to help your lineup pit or getting your entry fees back if you have a losing lineup on Fridays. Today is Friday, people. All the prize picks out today and use the code locked on MLB for a first deposit match up to $100. That's code locked on MLB on prize picks for a first deposit match up to $100, pick more pick less. It's that easy with prize picks. For an everyday list for the show, make sure you become a locked on Mets insider. This is our texting service where I can send you updates anytime so news breaks on the Mets. So today I let the insiders know that the Mets had signed catcher Logan Porter to a majorly deal which is a little bit deceiving because Porter has three options. So he was signed that outrighted to Syracuse. But this does give the Mets another catcher for some depth on their roster, a position they're pretty thin out beyond Francisco Alvarez and Luis Torens and Porter has been swinging it well this year. So not a bad ad. If things break the way the Mets want them to, you probably never see them play, but it's always good to be proactive when you can get some depth. And if you want to be inside your access with locked on Mets, make sure you become a locked on Mets insider to receive those texts, ask me questions anytime. You can also take part in our locked on Mets signed photo giveaways and the line of graphics sent to your phone each day. You can find the link to join in the episode description. We're going to subtext.com/lockedonmets. All right, so let's talk about the reasons to believe in the New York Mets and the first one is pretty simple. Really good lineup. They have been the best lineup in baseball since May 30th when this stretch of 40 games began. And that's in large part due to Francisco and Dore and Brandon Nemo, but really it does go up and down the lineup. The Mets are leading majorly baseball in wins above replacement from their position players since May 30th. That tells you how valuable player is. They have the most valuable team of position players in all of baseball. They're leading the league in WRC plus at one 38 WRC plus is where it runs creative plus. It measures hitters or in this case teams based on a league average of 100 spark adjusted, takes all these different things into account and the Mets have had the best mark in baseball. They're also leading majorly baseball and run scored in second percentage and an OPS while ranking second and batting average in our base percentage and at home runs. They've been unbelievable as a team and you look at some of the production they have gotten up and down their lineup and it's just been remarkable to see how they've consistently founded not just from one guy, but from multiple guys. So you start from the top and that's Francisco Lindor who has been the best shortstop in baseball by war since this stretch. He's in 313, 397 on base, 569 slug, nine home runs, 26 RBI's, 12 stolen bases, a 174 WRC plus Brandon Nemo, 289 average, 368 on base, 546 slug, nine home runs, a team leading 34 RBI's also team leading 32 run scored tide with Lindor. Think about that for a second. Across a 40 game span, those two guys scored 64 runs between them and they drove in 60. Nemo's got a 160 WRC plus 1.8 F or Francisco Alvarez and a hundred played appearance sample size hit 333 with a 410 on base, 552 slug. He drove in 15 hit three home runs, 173 WRC plus Mark Viento's hit nine home runs, it 289, 342 on base, 528 slug, 146 WRC plus Jose Glasey's hit 380 with a 999 OBS 184 WRC plus JD Martinez hit 257, 377 on base, 485 slug, seven home runs, 27 runs driven in, 149 WRC plus all those guys had just mentioned were each worth at least one win during this period. Meanwhile, Harrison Bader just below that 0.8 F or he's been hit 270 with a 514 slug, six home runs 20 RBI's 21 run scored. And you have Luis Terens in 19 games, being worth 0.8 F or hitting 283, 547 slug, three home runs, nine RBI's he's been unbelievable. Peter Lonzo's not even playing his best, but he still has a 125 WRC plus he is hitting 253, 333 on base, 455 slug, seven home runs, 24 run scored, 25 RBI's starting marty at the beginning of the stretch was hitting 333, Tyrone Taylor's got a 481 slug percentage. All those guys, 11 guys have graded out at least a 120 WRC plus or better. There has only been four hitters that have been below average during this stretch. Tomas Niedo who played four games, Ben Gamel has played nine games, DJ Stewart who's only got 54 played appearances has hit 132 59 on base 196 slug, 44 WRC plus. And then Jeff McNeil hitting 192 while the team is rolling. But with that said, I look at Jose Glaseous, I look at Jeff McNeil, a Glaseous is not going to hit 380 Jeff McNeil is not going to hit 192 that platoon together to meet somewhere in the middle. I think they're going to be fine at second base, third base, no doubts about Mark Vantos at this point. I think he's going to keep hitting shortstop Lindor has been awesome catcher. I don't know if they're going to get this level of production, but with those guys be a problem offensively, I don't believe so Nemo has been great. JD Martinez, I think will actually be better than he's been at least over the last couple of weeks. Peter has been super solid. I think penalonzo still has another gear to hit. So yes, Nemo and Lindor, they might come back down to earth. But if penalonzo takes it into gear, I just have faith in the Mets being able to put up runs. I really do. I don't think that's going to change this season. So reason to believe in this team, that's the big one. The other one for me is the fact that they're getting Kodai Senga back and I do buy into this rotation. And we're going to talk about in the next segment, how the Mets plan to line things up in this next stretch of games, because Senga is due to make one more rehab start and then he should be inserted back into the rotation when the Mets are facing the Braves. So that is a huge emotional lift to get Diaz back, but excuse me, to get Senga back. But you look at what they've gotten across this period of 40 games and you look straight to the left-handers in this rotation. Jose Quintana in eight starts at a 2-8-9 ERA, Shama Nia in eight starts at a 3-8-0 ERA and David Peterson in seven starts at a 3.03 ERA. Funny thing is, Luis Severino has not pitched great during this stretch. 4-4-1 ERA. There was a bad start that really colored that, but still, there's, I think, room for even better performance from Sevi. Christian Scott 4-7-9 ERA, there's room to grow there. And Tyler McGill had a 7-4-3 ERA. He's now out of the equation. So I look at those five guys with the inclusion of Senga coming into a six-man rotation. And I am fully bought in that the Mets are going to be able to get enough starting pitch and down that stretch that they don't have to make a trade at the deadline to do anything there. So more reasons to believe. I believe in the rotation, I believe in the lineup. There's two big reasons why I am still a little apprehensive about saying, "Oh yeah, the Mets are definitely going to make the playoffs." You can guess one of them pretty clearly, otherwise you've been living under a rock because there's a glaring issue that we talk about on this show pretty much every single day. It feels like at this point, and we will continue to until something gets addressed. But there's another one, and I want to tell you what both of them are in just a minute. First though, a word from our sponsors. Today's episode is brought to you by Supply House. 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I never want them to stop, but the playoffs have now winded down in the NBA and the NHL. We just get fewer games. If you've been to sports, they're not sports like I want them to, but FanDuel lets me keep the sports going whenever I want because all I have to do is open up the app, dream up bets anytime I'm in the mood, and this summer FanDuel is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily. That's right, there's something for everyone every day all summer long. So head over to FanDuel.com/locked on and start making the most out of your summer FanDuel official sports betting partner of Major League Baseball. Stay up to date with everything in the world of sports by checking out locked on sports today's Dreaming 24/7 on YouTube. Now I said there's two reasons why I still am not completely bought in on the New York Mets, and the first one's obvious, the bullpen. Do I need to waste a breath on it? It's an issue, and it has to be addressed, and I think it will be addressed. Here's the second one that just makes me nervous. You look at the road ahead, and we talked about what's immediately in front of the Mets. August, not that bad for the Mets. They got some easier teams on the schedule, that they played the athletics, they played the White Sox, they got some potential to win some games against some lesser teams. Here's what makes me nervous about the second half of the Mets. The very end of the season. Their final 16 games, I've talked about this before, but it's worth repeating. They're going to play the Phillies, the Braves, and the Brewers across that 16 game stretch. There is three games against the Nationals in there, which are great. Moving on September 13, though, there is a 10 game stretch where 7 of 10 are going to be played versus Philly. And then the other three against the Nationals, then you close the season with three against the Braves, three against the Brewers, I believe all on the road. That is a gauntlet to get there. Now the Mets can do their work early, and they can win a lot of games, but are they going to win enough games where those 16 aren't going to matter? Absolutely not. They're going to have to at least put themselves in position to play 500 ball during that stretch and to have to go up against the Phillies, a team that looks like the best in baseball right now, that could get even better because Dave Dombrowski, when he sees a window, he goes for it. He goes for it, and he's going to make moves in this deadline. We don't know exactly what the moves are going to be, but it's clear they probably need an outfielder. They can always get better with their pitching, you know, their pitching is unbelievable. They might even add an arm in the bullpen. They're going to make some adjustments to be even better. That is the only other thing that scares me. That's far away. You don't have to worry about it yet. We can enjoy everything up to that point. Hopefully we will enjoy that stretch of the season at the Mets. That's our good team. They'll be just fine, but that's the one thing that concerns me again today on who's better in my other show for just baseball. When we were going through these teams, there was this part of me that as I was making the case for the Mets, but then you also at the same time as me and Patrick, my co-host, are going back and forth, we were making our case for, okay, what could the Cubs make a run? Could the Giants make a run? For a lot of those teams, those two in particular, I think we came to the decision they couldn't, but you can see a roadmap where either of those teams or any of the other in the mix of all these wildcard teams can get hot at the right time and they can roll through it. Some of them haven't easier scheduled than the Mets, particularly at the end. That is the other thing that has me a little bit worried, but again, it's far in the future. Let's wait on that. Let's look at the immediate games coming up here. The Mets have set their pitching. Here's what it's going to be. Shyam and I's going to open things up Friday night, Jose Quintana on Saturday, Luis Severino on Sunday, Christian Scott on Monday. They've committed to it to this point, the pitchers for this series against the Marlins. There's some very interesting elements to what they've done here. By starting Shyam and I had to open things up and leaving David Peterson out of this first series, the Mets have set themselves up to have the same two guys who started the last subway series against the Yankees to pitch again in Peterson and Manai, and they both fared well. For Manai, it was five scoreless for Peterson. It was four and a third where he allowed one. They both did a good job and the bullpen was able to hold up and the Mets scored a ton of runs. So that was a good couple of games and they're trying to catch that same lighting in the bottle again with those guys. But even more interestingly, they had Christian Scott slated for Monday. Why is that important? Well, Kodai Senga is going to make a rehab start at some point this weekend. I would imagine it's probably on Saturday that would be pitching on five days rest he pitched on Sunday. So Senga makes that rehab start, gets up maybe to 80 pitches of the close to that all as well. He could enter the rotation against the Braves as early as Friday on five days rest. What does that mean for Christian Scott? For the rest of this season, he's never going to have to start on four days rest again. That is the positive side of it. And so what you're going to see is this group before go, Manaya, Quintana, Severino, Scott, then Peterson and Manaya, then probably Quintana and then Kodai Senga on Friday night against the Braves. Then you go back to Severino and Christian Scott or you could start Severino and then go to Senga to Scott. It does set up an interesting rotation because you'll now have three lefties going for one series in the future when this six-minute rotation rolls, and then three righties. They're all bunched together. Now there is an off day on the Thursday after the trade deadline where the Mets could mix things up a little bit, try to take one of those lefties, squeeze him in between the righties and make it a little more balanced. But that six-minute rotation is coming soon and that's how they're going to start things off. Now they're playing the Marlins as we've talked about. The Marlins are 30 games under 500. Edward Cabrera is starting on Friday night, he has an 8-6 year run this season, has had a year where he had dealt with a shoulder injury if I'm not mistaken. He's made two starts since coming back, they have not been good. He is a guy that has great stuff, 42 strikeouts in 28 and third, and we have seen him carve with the Mets on some occasions in the past. So I wouldn't say it's a completely easy matchup, honestly, based on stuff alone. I might say it's the toughest pitcher they're going to face and he has in the era over eight, but you've got to handle business. Game two will be Roger Munoz against Jose Quintana, Munoz has a 5-4-7 era in the season. Trevor Rodgers will go on Sunday, he's got a 4-7-2 era, and that's against Sevi who needs to have a really good start to bounce back here, get himself on track in the second half. Monday, the final game in the series, you have Jani Turinos who's pitching to a 5-7-6 era. We'll be going up against Christian Scott. What a better place to get your first career major league win than doing it in front of friends and family in Miami to be his second start pitching in that ballpark that I'm sure he went to a ton growing up. So that'll be a fun game for him, and this is an exciting opportunity for the Mets. You get 10 more games against the Marlins in the Nationals this year, take advantage of them. We'll see how the Mets fare. I'll be in the ballpark again Friday night, so if anyone is as well, hit me up on Twitter, the DMs are open, or you can put a comment on one of my tweets, and I'd love to say hello to anyone who's in the ballpark. And we will see if this team can get things right back or pick things up right where they left off. It's going to be a fun, fun ride leading into this deadline. I'll be with you every step of the way. Make sure you follow rate review, wherever you get your podcast, you can follow me on X, Finkles, Stein, Ryan, follow Shower, Lockdown, Mets. We're watching on YouTube, hit that subscribe button. We got a goal to get to 10,000 subs by the end of the season, so I appreciate all of you who continue to subscribe. Thank you for making a laptop match, your first listen, your first watch every day. Now for your second watch, head over to YouTube and check out the first ever 24/7 streaming channel that covers everything in the world of sports with our local experts from each team and our league wide experts from each league. If I locked on sports today, streaming 24/7 on YouTube and on Amazon Fire TV. Hey Prime members, you can listen to this Lockdown podcast ad-free on Amazon Music. Download the Amazon Music app today. (upbeat music)
