Pete Alonso had a rough time in the Home Run Derby last night, getting eliminated in the first round.
Host Ryan Finkelstein talks about how all the narratives surrounding Alonso can be affecting his game. Also, what does his future hold with the Mets.
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It's the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. From watching Pete Alonso compete in his 5th home run derby, we are learning that narratives change quickly when you're in a contract year in New York City. You are Lockdown Mets, your daily New York Mets Podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello to all you amazing Mets fans, you're listening to Lockdown Mets, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Thank you for making Lockdown Mets your first listen every day, Lockdown Mets is free and available on all platforms including YouTube. Today's show is all about Pete Alonso, I'm going to go through all the narrative swirling around Pete from his performance in the derby to his entire career at the Mets, how things have changed, what's the latest on if he's going to stay with the Mets beyond this deadline, beyond this season, I'm just going to give you all of my thoughts on Pete Alonso at this critical juncture of this season. Before we get to any of it though, I'm your host Ryan Finkelstein, if you want to find any of my work, follow me on X at Finkelstein Ryan, you can also find some of my writing just baseball.com where I work the managing editor. This episode of Lockdown Mets has brought you by booking.com, booking.yea, the right state can make you a fan of any city, even your rivals, check out booking.com for your stay today. Now this show is going to be a little bit different for me. I don't have any notes that I'm working off of, nothing, this is all off the cuff as I just want to have an open dialogue about Pete Alonso and his contract year and just the way narratives can change so swiftly for a player. And when it comes to Pete Alonso, I have covered every single pitch of his big lead career on this show. I started the podcast 2019 was my first year with Lockdown. So now is Alonso's rookie season. Every single step of the journey I've had a show and I, as I was preparing tonight and again, I don't got notes, this is just in my head sort of meant to preparing on what I want to talk about here. I was brought back to the first homer and derby that Pete Alonso competed in when he was a rookie. It was the first time seeing him do it and it's never going to be better than the original. Although the sequel for Alonso is pretty good winning back-to-back years, but that first year you had his cousin throwing to him and he wasn't getting great BP, but Pete Alonso was finding a way to hit anything out of the ballpark to stay alive in that tournament and to win it. And this year, you're watching Pete Alonso year five of doing it and he's taken pitches where there's 40 pitches that he gets and you have Dave Jousus throwing to him again, trying to recreate that magic from 2021 when he won the second time and Jousus was amazing for him. And Jousus was getting a terrible BP, Alonso was taking pitches. There wasn't a sense of urgency and he hits 12 home runs and it's all right by Pete and you have Alec Bohm after he's done with our effort. He's been eliminated. Alonso has saying, oh, that's just how everyone had it because everyone before the Derby was talking about why Alec Bohm was even there and Bohm advanced. He had the best amount or had the most home runs to the first five hitters and was the first guy to advance to the next round. And so that alone's rushing, right, seeing a Philly sort of laugh at Alonso and everything about Pete Alonso and Arlington this year has just been off. And I did a show after he was selected to be an all star where I railed against him. And after the home run Derby, the first thing I tweeted out was I'm so glad that we missed out in Francisco Landor, Brendan Nemo, being in Arlington for Pete Alonso to compete in that Derby because that is exactly why he was the Mets all star because they wanted him for the Derby. Congratulations, Major League Baseball. That's what you got. But now I look at what's happening and everything going on and I'm looking at myself in the mirror and it's like thinking, am I being too hard on Pete? Now, Pete Alonso, when it comes to this Derby, it's been the same recipe for years now. First year, of course, he's a rookie gets invited. He's obviously going to do it. I think he was not mistaken. He was either leading baseball, leading the national league at home runs, going into the Derby and he wins that. It's amazing. Second time he's not an all star in 2021. It's his only season where he hasn't been an all star because 2020, there was no all star game and he had a Derby crown to defend. So he came in just for the Derby and he won it 2022, 2023 and now 2024. He has said the same thing each year. I'm not going to participate in the Derby unless I'm an all star. And that's been, I don't know if it's always been his ticket to be an all star because he's put up all star worthy seasons, but it's been a wise thing to do for your career. He's going to enter free agency as a four time all star and the home run Derby has helped him with that. It's helped his notoriety as a star player. It's helped him get advertisements. He has done the right thing for his career at the way that he has navigated the Derby because the Derby put his name on the map and there's nothing wrong with that and he, he talks about how he wanted to compete in the home run Derby when he was a kid. So imagine Pina Lonzo who it's hitting home runs and travel baseball. For those of you who played there was that, that first year where guys start leaving the yard and at least from my experience playing travel where you're playing on the 200 foot field still and you start to sort of, you know, outgrow it and you're, you're hitting the home runs. I never was that guy. The guy that was occasionally giving up those home runs, but you imagine a Lonzo back then dreaming of being in the big leagues and being able to compete in the Derby and then he has done that. He has achieved everything you want to do along the way and he's been celebrated handsomely, you know, with adoration from fans all the way across it. And now 2024 everything has flipped on him. What's Pina Lonzo's queue rating right now? Do fans like Pina Lonzo? I'm sure there's still a large segment of the fan base that does, but it's different. The contract year has made it different. Pina Lonzo all of a sudden is not as likable as Francisco and Dore Brandon Nemo because those guys are playing better. And those guys deserve to be an Arlington playing in that game. And I can't get away from that take because it's a fact and made Pina Lonzo when he's in that Derby or when he's playing in the also game, maybe he'll have some imposter syndrome because maybe there is that part deep down his brain where he knows he shouldn't be there, but he didn't do anything wrong. And so this whole thing has happened and this guy just keeps wearing the bullets for this team. And in some ways, I think that's freed up Brandon Nemo and Francisco Lindor because a Lonzo is just like meat shield out in front of anybody, everybody who's getting all the attention because his name was floated at the deadline last year and that has been a story ever since and he has had to play with that, weighing him down since and it's clearly impacting him. I'm not saying that's why he didn't have a good Derby performance. If Dave Joust there was good BP, Pina Lonzo might have won tonight. I don't know, but it's about everything that's going on with Pina Lonzo. He changes to have Scott Boris represent him. Now he's less likable, right? Scott Boris most hated agent sports. He's going to like him a little bit less because he did that, but from a Lonzo's perspective, he had Max Scherzer as his teammate for a year and a half, who I'm sure said plenty of good things about Scott Boris. Brandon Nemo, the likable Met is represented by Scott Boris. So a Lonzo, maybe frustrated with his old representation side, I need to make sure that I set up my family for generations. I need to take advantage of this free agent here and I need the best in the business to do it. He's begrudge for it. And so to me, I just, I'm at a crossroads where I'm so torn. I'm so torn on Pina Lonzo because here's a guy that has across the way done everything right, everything right, going through the monoliths, making up to the big leagues, making a name for himself, rookie home run record, all star, constantly, a 40 home run, 100 RBI bat in the middle of your lineup, year in, year out, durable, plays every day. I mean, that broke his wrist or whatever that was last year, I think it was a wrist, right? It breaks his wrist, gets back off a broken wrist or whatever it was in 10 days, gets in a car accident in spring training, comes out with a scratch like everything that Pina Lonzo has done. He has just put the Mets first, put his career for it. He just, he has just plotted along. He donates to charity when he wins the home run derby. Every home run he hits this year, he's donating to charity. He's great in the community like everything he's done right to be a Met forever and to be celebrated and always adored. And now he could be gone in two weeks really, but I don't think that's happening. This could be the last couple months of Pina Lonzo's in New York meant to me. That should not be something that fans are welcoming. And I'm seeing that narrative shift and I can't lie, there's still part of me that wonders as a long advocate of pay the man, is he worth it? Is it, is it worth it to commit whatever dollar amount it is to sign Pina Lonzo? I want to talk about that next. Is this an end of an era for Pina Lonzo with the New York Mets? So we're going to get to that in just a minute. First though, a word from our sponsors today's episode is brought to you by fan duel. I love sports. I love them so much. I never want them to stop because the playoffs wind down. We get fewer games and the sports aren't sports and like I want them to. But fan duel lets me keep the sports going whenever I want because all I have to do is open up the app and dream up bets any time I'm in the mood. In this summer, fan duel took up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily. That's right. There's something for everyone every day all summer long. So I wrote a fan duel dot com slash locked on and start making the most out of your summer. Fan duel, official sports betting partner of Major League Baseball. Today's episode is also brought to you by prize picks. Prize picks is the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Unlike other apps on prize picks, it's just you versus the numbers. All you do is pick more or less on two to six player stat projections and you watch the winnings roll in. You can get in on the daily action with your friends and become part of the prize picks community today. And you can also now win up to 100 times your money on prize picks with as little as four correct picks. So you can turn $10 into a thousand dollars. If you're looking for promotions, prize picks has got you covered every week from lowering players stat projections on Tuesdays to help your line of pit or getting your entropies back. If you have a losing lineup on Fridays down the prize picks app today and use the code locked on MLB for a first deposit match up to $100. That's code locked on MLB on prize picks for a first deposit match up to $100 pick more pick less, it's that easy with prize picks. If you want to stay up to date with all the latest in the world of sports check out locked on sports today streaming 24/7 on YouTube. This has not been an ideal contract year for Peter Lonzo. If things had broke away, he was scripting them in his dreams heading into the season. He'd have 25 home runs right now. Maybe he'd driven in about 60. He'd be a clear cut all-star. He would have won the home run derby tying him a Ken Griffey Jr. for the only players ever to have three home run derby crowns and he still wants to chase after that. So don't expect this to be the last derby that Lonzo's in, he's going to be doing this till the wheels come off and feels like whether that's in a Mets uniform or not. But all these boxes would have been checked and the Mets would have made the playoffs and gone on a deep run which can still happen but Peter Lonzo would be a commodity hitting free agency and now you look at what he's done and he's not trending in the right direction. He's going to hit free agency off two relative down years here and now you look at the numbers for Peter Lonzo right now. I'm going to pull him up because he's not having a horrible season. He feels like it at times, he's gone through these prolonged droughts of power and slumps but he still has a 119 WRC plus 100 is league average so he's 19% better than your league average hitter. He's got 19 home runs, he's driven in 51. There's still every chance that he could get to the benchmark of 100 RBI so that's going to have to take a pretty torrid stretch to close out this season to do that. Maybe he still can get to 40 home runs. And if he does, if he reaches those plateaus which we've seen him get to pretty much every season of his career, rookie year, 53 homers, 120 RBIs, 2021, 37 home runs, 94 RBIs came up just short in both of those categories and he was great after winning that Derby. The second half that year, Peter Lonzo went off so he still has that in him. You look at 2022, 40, 131 driven in last year, 46, 118 driven in buddy hit 217 last year. The first part of his career, he was a 260 hitter who got on base at a 350 clip. Now it's more a 320 on base guy and a 220 to 240 hitter and this slug has dipped this year below 500 for the first time in his career outside of the 2020 season which was 57 games. You really can't count it. The numbers aren't adding up for Peter Lonzo and he's entering his age 30 season and if you are a GM of whatever team, the Cubs, the Brewers, how the Brewers are going to pay for you to see, the Cubs, the Giants, whatever team it is and you're watching him in the home run Derby, there has to be at least some thought in your mind of that's not the same guy from 19 and 21 that had the best power in the game that we saw on display. Is it ridiculous to judge him when you saw the pitching of Dave Jausen, just a Derby in general meaning anything of course but that doesn't stop narratives from forming and building. So you look at Peter Lonzo and what he's heading towards and free agency, I have no idea in some ways that might help him stay with the Mets to be completely honest. I mean he might come back on a team friendly deal at this point and it could be the best thing for the Mets. Every time he gets an opportunity, he talks about how much he loves New York. I honestly believe that the contracts are the same. He's going to sound with the Mets but he's also going to take the best offer because that's what you're supposed to do. When you have a chance to make generational wealth for your family, you go for it and you capitalize on what you've brought to the game and Peter Lonzo has earned every penny of whatever he's going to make because he has been one of the most marketable stars in the game. But what's that free agent, what's the resume looking like in 2021 if you look at the splits of Peter Lonzo's season. So first half, Lonzo not great but he was able to defend his Derby crown that gave him that honor. So he went at the time when he went into the All-Star break, he was hitting 249, 326 on base, 477 slug percentage, 116 WRC plus, very similar to the numbers we've seen right now. Second half, he hit 275, got on base at a 361 clip, slugged at a 560 clip, had a 145 WRC plus, his OPS drunk 120 points in the first half to the second half. And when it comes to the home runs, first half that year, he had 17 in 78 games. One half that year, he had 20 home runs in 74 games, his RBI is 49 in the first half, 45 in the second half. So not a drastic jump there but he was definitely better. Now we're going to see what he does in the second half, we're going to see the numbers that he puts up. And there is still a chance that Peter Lonzo can completely flip the script on this season. He can, he can go out, he can have a monster last couple months, he can help carry the meds for stretches, and maybe October, he had some, some great moments. But it really does blow me away, how the fan base can turn on a guy and I'm not taking shots because was I happy that Peter Lonzo was an all star? No. Have I been railing about it for the past week and the half or whatever it's been? Absolutely. Do I like seeing Peter Lonzo there at the Derby and at the all star game when I wanted to see Mark Vientos get his first shot at a Derby and I wanted to see Francisco Lindor appear in an all star game as a meant for the first time or Brandon Nemo getting a much deserved first ever all star appearance in his career. I'm not going to apologize for the takes that I've had and how I feel watching Peter Lonzo right now and it's a frustrating experience for a guy that I have really appreciated over the past six years or six seasons, I should say. I want to see Peter Lonzo retirement. I want to see Peter Lonzo hit 500 home runs as a New York man. But you really get to this point where you have to wonder is that the best thing for the franchise and it's crazy how much those things can change because a year ago at the home run Derby in 2023 it was just a get him next time Pete and there was no thought of any of this. We had an inkling the Mets might be sellers but the franchise went through a drastic shift in identity from the all star break last year to the deadline when they sold and then everything has been in flux ever since then and you have a team that is building in the right direction and I talked about that on yesterday show how much I love this front office but that front office is going to have a really tough decision to make on Peter Lonzo and so to close out the show today I just want to give you my sort of mental check in on July 16th about what four months from when decisions are going to start to be made there on Pete on what I want to see happen and how it could all shake out. So we're going to close the show there in just a minute first though another word from our sponsors. 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This weekend the Mets will be playing in Miami against the Marlins I'm going to be in attendance on Friday night so if you decide to book with booking dot com come to that series hit me up on social media and I will try to meet you at the game should be a lot of fun and remember the right state can make you a fan of any U.S. city even your rivals even Miami so book today on booking dot com on the site or the booking dot com you know we love talking stats here at Lockdown Rockies here's one that's super simple to remember discover automatically doubles the cash back you've earned on your credit card at the end of your first year with cash back match that means with discover you can turn a hundred and fifty dollars cash back to three hundred dollars that's right you could put it towards some memorabilia you've had your eye on or treat yourself to a premium sports network you earn and discover doubles see terms at discover dot com slash credit card if you're an everyday listener of the show make sure you become a locked on Mets insider there's the draft going on right now and there's going to be a part two of the episode today where I'm going to break down everything from day two of the draft there was what eight picks made so I'm going to go through all that in another episode but the lock on Mets insiders they already know my feelings on those draft picks because I sent them a pick by pick analysis through subtext they got a text on each pick today where they were able to learn about who these guys are and how they'll factor into the Mets system so if you want to be part of that type of bonus coverage other New York Mets make sure you become a locked on Mets insider by finding a link in the episode description we're going to subtext dot com slash locked on Mets alright so let's tie a bow here on this and really look ahead to what happens here with Peter Lanzo first things first I hope that Peter Lanzo will get to the other side of this deadline and be a new man because I think it has weighed on and that's of the question today in his media availability where they asked him if someone has come up to him yet and sort of said alright Pete you're off the hook we're not going to trade you we're going for it this year no one's done that yet I mean really kind of talked around the question because what's he going to say but it's one of those situations where you can't really blame the front office for how they've handled this because they've been open and honest from day one. David Cernes said penalize is represented by a guy that likes to bring his clients into free agency we expect that to happen we'll pursue all those conversations in free agency we are very excited about penalize of being our starting first base been this year he said all the right things but one of the cards that David Stearns never wanted to take off the table is the fact that there was a world and there still could be one where penalize against traded if the Mets fall in their face out of the break and they dropped to five games out penalize could get traded Brett Beatty could be up playing third base and Mark Vantos could be at first that could happen it's not out of the cards yet the Mets have to finish this thing strong to still be a buyer I think they will I believe in this team but it is still technically in the cards now assuming that you get beyond that assuming that Peter Lonzo on August 1st is a New York met and the Mets are still in this race maybe there is a load of pressure off that he can just play the string out and not worry as much about where he's going to play because he knows he's with the Mets for the rest of the season he knows he's with his guys at the same time there's still the contract that he's playing before so the the pressure doesn't leave but maybe getting back into the race that's going to heat Peter Lonzo's bad up and I still think that if you're telling me is there who's the one bat in the Mets lineup that could carry the Mets through a round in the playoffs could carry the Mets throughout a push in September who can hit you know a home run in five straight games it's Peter Lonzo he still has the most power on this team and when he's right I don't think there's a better homer header in baseball outside of Aaron Judge it may be showing a tiny but this guy has been that throughout his career he still leads majorly baseball in home runs since 2019 partially because Judge hasn't always been healthy but durability factors in so I don't want to see this go really sideways for Pete but if we get a continuation of what we've seen so far which is I don't know B minus Peter Lonzo where he's still hitting his home runs and maybe he finishes with I don't know 30 I think it's it's pretty easy to envision him doing that for his last 30 days I think he has five homeruns so sort of think about that the rest of the season can he get 11 more to get to 30 I think so maybe he finishes with 30 and 75 30 homerun 75 RBI's and he's got the 120 WRC plus into two in player and he's a good first baseman but he doesn't have a great year when he hits that market is there a team that's offer him $200 million even if he has a torrid stretch down down over the final couple months is he getting 200 million I think he'd have to have an unbelievable finish of the season where he hits 11 homeruns in August 10 in September finds his way to 40 homeruns drives in 100 is the NLCS MVP of the best good like I think everything would have to break right from this point on for this guy to get 200 million I just do not see it but one caveat is the contract we've talked about on this show a couple times now where it would be Peter Lonzo getting 200 million dollars from the Mets but with significant deferrals that take the value of that contract to something closer to the seven years $150 million he was offered for the Mets last year around the trade deadline and he turned it down getting to that value I think could make a lot of sense and the deferrals with this guy who has been the franchise player homegrown star he's the type that would take that type of a deferral structure to get the big flashy number but to stay with the organization so I still think that contract is there for him but then that's have to want actually let me let me change that I hope that contract is still there for him and I hope he would take it I think that might be his best route to getting paid otherwise I think it's some team that gives him like a three-year $90 million deal something that's high AV short years opt out a scot bore special if you were okay where Peter Lonzo next year is teaming up with Cody Bellinger in Chicago and he's getting paid 35 mil but it's to hit the market again the following season and that's not how I want to see Peter Lonzo finishing out his career I don't want to see Peter Lonzo jumping around in different teams I want to see Peter Lonzo with one team that team being the Mets but then again I can also see the other side of it I totally understand the fans who think that Brett Bay should be the starting third base from the future and Mark Viento should slide over to first or if you're not even that much in the baby camp still just nicking Viento should play first and you figure out something else that they're giving Beatty and Mauricio an opportunity next year letting your prospects come through the system seeing exactly who's going to stick at that spot but just moving on I get that opinion because does it make sense to pay a guy that probably should be a DH for most of his 30s into his you know however long he's playing but for his next contract I'd imagine most of that should be as a DH and honestly I think Peter Lonzo will be better as a DH if the Mets were to bring him back and it's the deal I laid out or maybe he makes less because he has a bad year whatever it is he comes back he gets branded Nemo type money and he's in a match uniform for six or seven years whatever it is if the Mets made the decision next year we're going to start Beatty at third we're going to have Vientos and Alvarez excuse me Vientos and allows us sort of switch off at first base but ultimately Vientos is going to end up playing more because he's younger and allows us going to get comfortable in that DH role I think you could see a renaissance of Peter Lonzo locked up in a Mets uniform he's minted he is going to finish his career with the Mets I could see Peter Lonzo turning in five more really strong seasons after this year where all he focuses on is hitting where in between innings instead of having to play first base he's down into in the in the clubhouse or in that you know in the batting cage where they have that new I don't know if you've seen it there's this new insane pitching machine where it literally throws the guys pitch like you can set up the accesses of the different offerings that the pitcher has you can even watch his motion come at you from this crazy high-tech you know looking just like a video game that's come to life and you can prepare for your at bats so if Peter Lonzo had that tool and he didn't have to worry about first base anymore and he could just focus on watching the spin of that slider for ten minutes before he steps in the box and then he can finally spit on it instead of chasing at it I mean this guy could be unbelievable still I still hope that Peter Lonzo is going to come back to the Mets and I still think that as a franchise even with Marc Vientos and his ascent if you can get a guy who can put up 40 and 100 for you you keep him but I guess I'm talking in circles throughout this entire show today and I apologize on that I'm just at I mean a turmoil as a Mets fan I think a live you're probably experiencing with Peter Lonzo where I don't know what the outcome is and it's feeling a lot to me like Jacob de Groms last year with the Mets a couple years ago where the contract wasn't settled you knew the free to see what's coming and I kept trying to convince myself because there's that little boy in me probably that you know it gets upset when a home grown met leaves are just a met that I like leaves that wants to see them in blue and orange forever that could not admit to myself when the writing is on the wall for something and that was the case with Jacob de Grom and maybe that's the case for Peter Lonzo maybe this is it this is the last hurrah and hopefully the Mets can make it a joyous one if that's the case and they could go on a little bit of a run this year we can see Peter Lonzo in more than just a three-game wildcard round maybe we can see the Mets make a run and see Peter Lonzo on the biggest stage for potentially the final time but there's really no telling which way this thing's gonna go so now two weeks of the deadline that's the first benchmark get past that see how the season goes and then it'll be a very interesting winner for Peter Lonzo for the polar bear which is his time right anyway that's gonna be all for today's edition of locked on Mets I do have a second show coming on the draft so if you're listening on the audience side that's just gonna hit your audio feed you watch on YouTube make sure you find that to make sure you don't miss it make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel goal is to get to 10,000 subscribers by the end of the year I appreciate all of you for helping me get to the last goal of the 9,000 by the all-star break so please hit that subscribe button if you want to follow me 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