The League of Legends Betting Podcast
Friday, August 9th, 2024 - LCK
Recorded on: Thursday, August 8th at 4:30pm Eastern
Recap 0:26
LCK Slate 4:15
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The League of Legends betting podcast is brought to you by my Patrons at patreon.com/jilladellol. There you can find bonus content like in-depth articles on macro trend analysis and league previews, as well as thoughts on breaking news and the podcast picks before the show is released to platforms. You also get to support your creators more directly. patreon.com/jilladell, that's G-E-L-A-T-I-L-L. Good evening everybody, it's currently about 4.30 pm eastern on Thursday, August 8th, 2024. We had a pretty good day here, I actually just realized in my Patreon post as I'm starting to read through this that I had the wrong day at the top, so let me fix that real fast. We had a really, really good betting day, hit all three bets today, seven and one in the last two days, pretty nice day, we had plus 3.32 units for the day. How on breon wasn't ever really in doubt for Hamwa, but we did get to see a pentakill for who was a Karis, who even played today, I forget who even played mid for them today, it was fake, fake at the pentakill on Trist. It was like a base defense penta, like Hamwa just got over greedy, they didn't even overstay, they just kind of got sloppy and took a fight that was split 2v2, 2v2, 1v1, kind of just a weird split fight at the top inhibitor, and we ended up getting a weird fake cleanup pentakill from down 7k gold or whatever they were down at the time. It didn't ultimately matter for the game, like they still lost, the second game wasn't particularly close either, but it was kind of funny to see that little uncharacteristically sloppy from Hamwa, maybe the doldrums of summer kind of getting to them here. Ferex D+ was a much more interesting one, first game D+ kind of jumped out to a moderate lead, I say moderate, it wasn't statistically significant, it was like 2500 at 15 which is like a lot, but they didn't really grow it from there. Ferex kind of just out nitrovered them in a couple of the big neutral fights and ended up turning this game and winning it. Second game in this series was a slobber knocker, absolute fiesta of a game, this one went like 50 minutes, I don't think anybody had more than like a 2k gold lead for like 40 minutes in this game which is nuts, you rarely ever see games that close that go that long. It kind of looked like D+ had it and they turned on a big fight and ended up screwing it up and we ended up with one of these crazy cartoon endings where you were trying to split with a base race and you were trading Elder and Baron and it was just a complete shit show of an ending for this game. Really, really funny finish but D+ did get there, I kind of thought they threw it and messed this up for a minute but they did eventually get across the finish line. Game three, we saw D+ jump out to another moderate lead early and Ferex just did a really, really good job of playing just enough defense that D+ couldn't really expand their lead until later Baron fights but eventually D+ had like misfortune Maokai, Gangplank in this game and it was, yeah the team fight Wambo ended up being a little bit too much to deal with also Laking Gangplank still very good. Kind of cool, I love Gangplank in pro play, I just think it's a really, really fun champion to watch, I know some people disagree with that but I just like the champion, I think it's fun. He's someone that's been pretty good all season but like the meta game has not been conducive to him being good, like with all the AA carry comps and stuff running around it makes it really tough to chain barrel combos together so really, really good fun champ to watch. This was an entertaining series, Ferex put up a hell of a fight as we expected from them, this was a critically important match for them, it's going to be interesting to see if there's a big exhale for them or if they just come right back at it later this week. Alright let's get on to the Friday LCK slate, I don't have a whole lot of thoughts on this slate, this is going to be a relatively short podcast but we have all four leagues active again on Saturday so I will have two shows for you tomorrow. We get day three in the LCK, we have Gen G minus 1656 on the money line the minus one half maps is up minus 263 against KT Rolster plus 943 on the money line plus one half maps at plus two and 90 minus one half is at plus 1834. What's our rule with KT Rolster, we fade them as big favorites and we back them as big underdogs I think this more than enough qualifies for them being big underdogs as a nine to one dog here. Gen G do have side choice for this series which is going to make it not merously difficult for KT to actually get one home here. I don't think, I know this team ceiling games can be anyone but I'm not doing it, I would lean KT here, I just think Gen G are too good but this is the other side of our rule so if you want to back KT to take a map at two to one I think that's fine. If you want to bet that map to specifically I think that's probably just as good because if you assume they lose game one they'll have side choice game two and that's probably their best bet to take a game here. Model does make this closer for the record, my S474 to plus 416 showed a very very light edge on KT first but I'm not going to go back to the well with that again on this one because it's not it wasn't as big an edge as the previous ones. I don't really have any plays in this one, I put in the Patreon post that like a collection of the best individual seasons that we've ever seen in the LCK since they've gone to like the full double round robin format. I listed maybe like 10 different seasons on here that were like the best of all time, I'm not going to read them all off right here. These weren't necessarily the best you know metric seasons but they were the best like records with the exception of 2020 summer damn one which was the models best team of all time they went 16 and they had a 34 and five match records so um yeah Genji Genji spring had a 34 and five game record 17 and one match record which is the probably the best sees like that that's tied if not better. No it is it's tied exactly with that 2020 damn one summer season. They have the potential to go 36 and one this this season which is absolutely insane so the reason I bring this up I'm not trying to you know dick ride this team any more than anyone already has but just goes to I just wanted to make make sure to point out like just appreciate what you're witnessing with this team we very well it's very likely that we end up witnessing this is the best individual season of all time the LCK so appreciate what you're seeing this team is a wagon. That said it would be the most KT like most on-brand KT Rolster thing ever to to a Genji after losing to a brian so keep that in mind if you want to back it go for it but I'm not going to no action lean kt plus one and a half maps are mapped to money line if you forced me to play this. No shame read force are plus 759 on the money line the plus 1/2 plus 179 the minus 1/2 plus 1548 against T1 minus 1241 on the money line the minus 1/2 maps at minus 221. This is one of those days where I wouldn't fault you for taking the underdog sweeps like parlay I think if you play what is it like minus 221 and minus 263 you're going to get what like minus one I'm just going to do this right now I think you get like minus 115 or something like that ballpark now you can get about even money you get about even money on that I wouldn't fault you for doing that I just a little too sketched out by KT so I'm not going to model made this an action T1 series plus 566 against minus 674 tags kill total overs as moderate plot moderate edge on market as well as the over four and a half dragons as moderate edge on market and action do have side choice for this series so if you're going to back the dogs I like kill spread on map one or kill total overs on map one or map one money line I think that's the way to do it I don't think I don't think it's a it's necessarily like a bad spot here to take a shot with the noodle boys T1 have looked a little off obviously I think that's been well chronicled you know all the frustration they showed from that Hama series doesn't just feel like this is like just what the doctor ordered for them that's kind of the vibe I've got from this series like long since still haven't had a lead of any size at 20 minutes since week two we're in week eight now it's been more than like five weeks since they've they've had a lead it's been a month and a half since they've had a lead at 20 minutes on the internet on stage game I like a couple of the players on this notion team but they're not good and I feel like T1 might just like take out all the frustrations on this team and that's another reason I kind of like kill total overs I guess that's one way to put it I'm going to play those anyway because the model suggested them projected this is 24.416 I'm going to play map one kill total over over 23.5 minus 114 for one unit I really like I also just think T1 might run up the score just like pad their ego a little bit because they've been kind of again like just with the doctor order kind of situation if you don't feel that way and you think T1 are struggling enough that you know they could lose this then go for it but T1 looked really really good against Tom on they just kind of bungled it over played a little bit I have a feeling they bounce back and just completely trashed this series that my only real concern with playing this over is that T1 win this too hard like 23 minute win kind of looks so yeah that's it for me I don't really have too much to say on these two matches I'll be back with two shows I'm probably going to try to get one of them done right when I get home in the morning so I'll have an early morning show possibly We'll see how it goes best of luck and I will see you tomorrow
