UFC Vegas 95 Picks | Tybura vs. Spivak 2 | DFS MMA DraftKings Picks
Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC Vegas 95 DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:33 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:43 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
04:24 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
06:27 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
09:01 - Outro
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what's up everyone welcome to another UFC quick picks here on the mayo media network we have UFC Vegas 95 I think this weekend it is Sergey Spivak versus Marcin Tibera in the main event only 10 fights on the slate and we got some crazy dynamics with the salary let's get right into it I'm here to give you my favorite cash gameplay tournament play salary play and a matchup I like on the slate as well the most important thing you need to know which I will tie right into my cash gameplay of the week with Chris Gutierrez is that we have the biggest favorite on the slate in Chris Gutierrez priced near the bottom of the salary pool at 7k Gutierrez is - 535 to win against Kwong Lee but priced at 7k he's a considerable value should be the most expensive fighter on the card based on money lines outright but he's not a 7k he is my clear cash gameplay of the week he's going to be ultra popular across all formats but again we don't mess around here with the cash gameplay is we got to tell you what you need to know and that is to lock in Chris Gutierrez and it's not that Kwong Lee can't compete or isn't a good fighter he's racked up some wins in LFA he has some knockout power he's shown some base level grappling it's just Chris Gutierrez is a pretty solid kickboxer really strong leg kicks strong metrics pretty competent defensively Gutierrez lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute only 2.79 absorbed he just rates out as the superior striker in this matchup 69% take down defense Lee coming in on short notice hard to project him to really wrestle much so it's why good he is as a considerable favorite the real issue is that he's only plus 150 to win inside the distance not really a great fantasy asset Gutierrez a scored 75 75 75 at less than 75 in his decision wins in the UFC so there's some argument to make that at 60 70% ownership in large field tournaments maybe you consider pivoting away from Gutierrez in some spots to be unique with that said most win equity on the slate the clear best points per dollar play lock in cash games will take that those 75 points and run and potentially in tournaments as well definitely the most likely fighter on this slate to be optimal and he needs to be highly considered in all formats next up we have my tournament play of the week I'm gonna roll with Carl Williams at 9k Williams is in a pretty binary matchup against you have not a Denise in a fight that I like I mean this could have been my matchup of the week where Denise is going to be a popular underdog target a knockout artist Williams is the wrestler I do tend to lean toward the wrestlers in general Williams is minus 207 to win at 9k and Denise already got taken down in his UC debut by Austin Lane got held down can not get back up for like four minutes and it's just not a great sign when now he's facing a much more composite wrestler in Williams who's landed seven and eight takedowns averages nearly five takedowns landed per 15 minutes Williams definitely not the best striker though although we don't have a large sample on him striking if the fight does play on the field definitely think Denise has knockout upside I would consider Denise a 7.2k for that knockout upside actually is a better inside the distance line than Williams but I don't think we need a win inside the distance for Williams who's plus 240 inside the distance at 9k Williams has won twice by decision in the UFC that scored 117 and 130 he also was off 71 point win that came with only one takedown only three minutes of control I'm expecting three to five takedowns 10 to 15 minutes of control loss of ground strikes and potentially late stoppage for Williams so not necessarily the you know stand out you can obviously plays a law bar though there's other fighters in this range but for the price for the wrestling upside I really like Williams there at 9k next up my salary play of the week it's also going to be Chris Goodier now just kidding let's go with the main event underdog here in Marching Tibera one way to save salary and I do like Tibera as the underdog in the main event 7.9k plus 145 to win in a fight where he's already won I mean he's already being Sergey Spivak and I know that's not the only way to analyze a fight this is this happened four years ago and and Tibera is like 38 years old Spivak's like a decade younger I understand the youth advantages for Spivak I understand that Tibera has durability issues Spivak hasn't yet recorded a knockdown in 20 plus rounds in the UFC Spivak's also been knocked out in three of his four UFC losses Spivak's coming off a loss and when she was out struck 109 to 11 by Cyril gone who granted as a really good striker but Spivak just doesn't rate out well at distance he's a grappler he's a judo player he likes to throw you to the ground get on top of you win early that's where the bulk of his wins come and he didn't have any success doing that the first time he fought Marching Tibera because Tibera is also a good wrestler and a better submission grappler Tibera is a black belt in jujitsu average 1.4 takedowns per 15 minutes was able to get Spivak down a couple times in that first fight and Spivak could not get back up Tibera earned like eight and a half minutes of control scored 87 points on draft Kings ultimately another fight where you're going to be pretty highly invested the main event the winners we're going to project a score very well Tibera has already won this fight I think he has a lot of advantages in wrestling grappling cardio probably distance striking as well it's just the youth potentially durability advantages on Spivak's side so I totally get the idea of playing Spivak as well I'd like exposure to him as well but I do prefer the underdog Tibera there at 7.9k saves you salary still a lot upside within your construction really strong fight and fighter to target this week and finally my matchup of the week there aren't really many matchups left on the slate let's go with the day or the debut the preliminary opener in Stephanie Luciano verse Tilly to Alan Carr this is another rematch these two fought on the contender series and they fought to a draw Alan Carr won the first couple of rounds by landing four takedowns control Luciano for a handful of minutes and got pretty tired doing so and then Luciano wrecked her in the third round landed 54 significant strike to nine of Alan Carr nearly earned a stoppage and that's why they're rematching here in Luciano's UFC debut Alan Carr also won her UFC debut in a close decision really it's the binary dynamic that I like in that Alan Carr is the superior wrestler and grappler she showed that in the first fight she landed a few takedowns without too much difficulty while she was fresh and Luciano couldn't get back up Alan Carr took her back was fishing for the rear naked choke if Alan Carr wins it's gonna come from takedowns it's gonna come from control potentially a submission although I don't think that's extremely likely and she's gonna exceed value out of 7.7k price tag and it's not as if she I mean I don't think she's a great wrestler but it's not as if she can't land takedowns in this matchup she's already proven that she can four times and while she's fresh I definitely think she has ground advantages if Luciano can defend her earlier this time I do think Luciano's distant striking advantages will play out to her favor where she's the more effective striker she's gonna throw at a higher rate and she could potentially break Alan Carr over the duration this fight is not very likely to end inside the distance though that is one concern and maybe it will keep people off the fight it's - 250 to go the distance Alan Carr is +4 75 inside the distance Luciano +3 25 but I don't think Alan Carr needs a submission to get 10 for the optimal lineup at 7.7k based on her grappling upside and likewise if Luciano had gotten a late stoppage there against Alan Carr she would have put up north of a hundred and a hundred points I think she could also land to take down if Alan Carr is tired so it all sort of depends on where Alan Carr is at if she's on top of Luciano controlling her great for Alan Carr if not she's probably gonna get picked apart and she might lose dominantly I think it's a pretty strong fight to target as a preliminary opener especially due to that binary dynamic alright guys let's gonna do it for this UFC quickbicks thank you so much for the support you follow me on Twitter bird aptly double T double P established the run dot call for all your draft Kings breakdowns needs just one more week until big out of Sonya do plus C pay per view so hang in there this is a card just for fun but good luck wish you all the best and we'll talk to you soon bye everybody well yes world from the San Diego Zoo wildlife alliance I'm Marco went and I'm Rick Schwartz and we're your host for season 3 of amazing wildlife a show from iHeartRadio Ruby studio and the global conservation organization behind the San Diego Zoo and the San Diego Zoo Safari Park listen as we dive into the efforts here in San Diego and spotlight the heroes working worldwide to care for the species you know and love listen to amazing wildlife on the iHeart radio app, Apple podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
