Notre Dame's pass game has potential to be much better in 2024, but it will need to be at its best in the biggest moments.
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We're driven by this search for better, but when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search "match" with Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast. Ditch the busy work, use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. Enaging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences, so the more you use Indeed, the better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great, talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com/bluewire. Just go to indeed.com/bluewire right now and support our show by saying that you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's indeed.com/bluewire, terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Mom, Dad, I humbly suggest you save some money and shop Amazon for back to school. It's for my growth, meaning my body's growing at an alarming rate. Even clothes you buy me this year will be very small, very soon. Plus, the clothes I love today will be out of style tomorrow, but at least your wallet doesn't have to be my fashion victim if you shop low prices for school at Amazon. Hopefully this is helpful. Amazon. Spend less. Welcome everyone to another edition of the Irish Breakdown podcast. I'm Vince Diderio. That's Brian Driscoll. And we got another fun one for you folks. It is a Thursday. We are inching ever so close to the beginning of the season. It's like I can taste it. I can smell it. I can see the golden light at the end of the tunnel, which is game one. I mean, we are in the month, obviously, and we're only a few weeks away, so I'm getting pumped up. I'm getting excited. And today we are actually going to talk about a couple of different topics. So the overarching topic is past game, and so we're going to look at that in a couple of different ways. Look at that from an offensive standpoint, and we're going to look at historically and what we think they're going to be and all of that. And then defensively, the past defense. Can they be as good as they've been, et cetera? And so I'm looking forward to that. And then of course, after that, since it is Thursday, I think we've got off track a little bit before, but we are doing our final Power 4 conference preview. And that will be the big 12. And it's not a spoiler alert, but this was by far the hardest conference to project, in my opinion. And I think... And the one where we probably had the most difference of the opinion. Oh, yeah. Big time, especially at the top. So that one's going to be fun as well. So we're going to, we're past game, offense, defense, and then big 12 overview. And that's the show for today. So stick around because we got a lot of good stuff coming. Yo, direction. So we are going to kick it off with the offensive side of the ball and the past game. And so what does that mean exactly? That is, you know, what we've seen recently in the past game, and obviously there have been various trigger men over the last few years, not a lot of continuity at the quarterback position. And, you know, a lot of that's because of the portal or injury or what have you, but, you know, I think this is the fourth different starting quarterback in a row, right? Four years in a row, different starting quarterback. Fifth, if you count, I guess the last 10 year of Ian book. And so yet another quarterback goes under center and, you know, we are talking about the consistency of the past game specifically in the big moments and when it matters most. And is there a chance that that is going to change going into this year, Brian? 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But the fact is, is it needs to events and that's the big thing is, you know, like I'm sitting here, you know, prepping for the show and I'm going over the data and I'm crunching numbers and what it comes down to is last year was unique because last year was the first year that we actually saw the pass offense actually like look really dangerous against bad teams. Yeah. Right. Right. And where you started to see like, okay, like, and this is kind of my, my comment about, you know, when people talk about the receiving core and things along those lines and it's like, look, I know they weren't as good as they needed to be. But the reality is, is it was still a group that, that when you, when you break it down, it was still a group that when they played inferior opponents, they, they dominated. Sure. I mean, they weren't just good, but they dominated, but the same story that's been true for so long Vince was also true which is you know they didn't play well when it mattered and when you look at the pass off ends last year you know there's some good things that we saw last year 9.1 yards per attempt that's pretty good that's the best no name is had pass game wise in a very long time matter of fact going back over the numbers you know 9.1 last year was good they were 8.0 the year before that 8.1 7.9 7.9 8.0 6.6 7.9 8.8 back in 2015 8.0 7.7 7.5 6.9 6.8 and then 8.7 well that 8.7 we had Jimmy Claus and Michael Floyd and Golden Tate so like the 9.1 you're like well that's that's really good and this is what makes last year's offense so difficult to discuss because on one side you have a group of people that just only focus on the big games and and act like Jared Parker sucked because of this and the receiving corps sucked because of this and Sam Hartman sucked because they didn't play well in big games and completely ignore what happened against the inferior teams now you don't get paid at Notre Dame your legacy is not built on what you do about against the inferior opponents but when you're analyzing where they are based on where they need to go you have to be willing to look at that and when you look at last season and you look at what they did to the teams that are were less than I mean they ripped them up Vince I mean they ripped Navy up they ripped Tennessee state up they ripped central Michigan up through the air they ripped up pit through the air they ripped up Wake Forest of the air they ripped up Oregon State on the air they would have done that against Stanford if it were if they needed to but when you run for 350 yards in Audric Estimades a man possessed you're like yeah we're good you know Sam had a bad pick early and they just didn't need to throw the football so you have to be willing to look at that and say look they definitely made progress because they had talented players they had a six-year senior quarterback you had a really good tight ends you had talented you know fat receivers at certain spots and and your freshman class was pretty talented but when you got into big games this team was way different and that's really what it boils down to Vince is will they get better look I fully expect this offense to do exactly what it did last year Vince at the very minimum and that is they're going to rip up the bad teams and struggle against the good teams like that's the minimum of what we're going to see this year like I and I fully expect the yards to be better and there's a lot of expect to be better just because the talents can be better what we have to learn and what we have to find out Vince is can they be better in those big games and my point is why should say this I let me rephrase the minimum because I just made it seem like I predicted this is what it's going to do here's what I mean let me put it differently because I think you know where I'm meant to go with that what I could see it in your face minimum this team is going to rip up the inferior opponents in the past game that's the minimum the question then becomes okay what do they do in the big games and for people that are still in the chat but the big games are what matters okay calm down listen for a second okay like we've said that the big games are what you evaluate but what you have to be willing to do is say okay as a whole have they made progress are they better and the answer is they took a step last year in some regards and in really two of the last three years that they've had a veteran quarterback they've actually had some really good moments down the football they're not there yet because they don't play well in the big games right everyone like not like nobody acknowledges the big games aren't the problem the thing you have to be willing to to look about however is say okay but are they still just the same pass offense they've always been or are they maybe making strides in other areas and now it's time to get to that next level and that's going to be the question can they can they take that next level because you can't ignore Vince a couple things you can more how good they were last year throwing the ball at times last season for example Notre Dame average 285.1 yards per game and if you take that if you break the schedule into two segments there's the what I believe are the six best teams in the schedule which is NC State Ohio State Duke Louisville USC and Clemson right that's my six I took Oregon State out because the version of Oregon State the learning faces are from the top 25 team during the regular season okay I agree and then the other seven games are Navy, Tennessee State, Central Michigan, Pitt, Wake, Stanford, Oregon State. Notre Dame average 285.1 yards per game against those opponents that were not those teams right so when you when you look at the production over the course of the year you say well you know you look at your you look at your top your top six your bottom seven opponents Notre Dame ripped them up pretty good I mean they did some serious damage against them and the difference is when you look at this team Vince the difference last year and years before is that right there I mean you can't ignore that right there that they were better and here's an example if you look at 2021 okay and you look at how they did against the seven bottom opponents on the schedule they averaged 212.3 yards per game passing right 212.3 so clearly they were better last year than they were in past years if you look at where they were in 2021 and you look at what they did against the opponents that were not you know you consider the top opponents and then Notre Dame average 314 yards past per game that season actually I don't know that I'm doing that math right let me just back one real quick because I don't know that that's correct so just give me one second so that's six games they played 13 games yeah because they had 509 yards in the bowl game so let me just do this math without the crazy bowl game experience here real quick Vince and and I'll give you what I'm referring to in the regular season so in the regular season against they're not not their top two opponents they were 282.2 yards per game right so we've seen in those moments that there was with Jack Cone and Sam Hartman way better production in those lesser half games in 2022 they just couldn't throw the ball on anybody I mean that's just the reality of it but here's the problem with 2021 I had to count Florida State as one of their top six opponents that's how soft their schedule was because it was at least a big moment even though they ended up not being a good team but if you look at the five teams that were actually that they played that year that actually like had good teams and you look at what they were in the five big games where teams are actually good they only average 220 yards per game per passing the ball in 2022 against the six top teams in the schedule they average 201 passing yards per game and last year against the top six teams in the schedule they only average 201.5 yards per game so even though they've been better against the lesser opponents with the veteran quarterbacks nothing's changed and in fact if you go back and look at 2000 and in 22 they actually had more passing yards per game against the best teams in the schedule than they did last year or the year before really that's actually shocking yards yeah well part of it's because they had 316 to 18 yards in the win over USC because USC's defense was not good but and then one of those six best teams was North Carolina who had a terrible defense they passed for 289 yards true and then the other games I had were Ohio State Marshall Syracuse and Clemson but they Vince they didn't they haven't they threw for only 201 yards combined in wins over Syracuse and Clemson that's just not going to get it done right so the point is is while I believe Notre Dame has raised the bar throwing the football statistically I expect that to continue thanks to the arrival of the talent that they have and Mike Dennbrock the question is going to remain can they go out there against the best teams in the schedule and hurt them throwing the football this episode is brought to you by our good friends at NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV I'm sure by now you've all got back into your Sunday routines but they could be even better with NFL Sunday ticket and YouTube TV you get the most live NFL games all in one place every game every Sunday and you can even watch up to four different games at once with multi-view one of my favorite inventions of this decade it's exactly what you need to catch all the action make your Sundays more magical and also YouTube TV is great I got it this year it's awesome sign up now at youtube.com/bs device and content restrictions apply local national games on YouTube TV NFL Sunday ticket for out-of-market games excludes digital only games school is back and exporting goods has what you need to win your year we've got everything from cleave to sambas dunks and more plus the hottest looks from Nike Jordan and Adidas find your first day fits in store or online at dicks.com that's really what this conversation comes down to and and ultimately that's going to determine how good this team can be are they a playoff team that maybe wins a home game and then after that you're kind of outclass or even maybe even you win two playoff games because you get you get a big 12 team in the second round you're just better than they are and you win that when then you get to semifinals and we're back to where we used to be where you get ripped up by three touchdowns that's that's really where Notre Dame is going to be because they haven't been able to have those moments in big games and and Vince that's been true for however long I mean you look at 2020 right last time Notre Dame had a really really like excellent team they went into the postseason past for 209 yards 19 yards against Clemson 7.8 per kit attempt that's terrible they threw for 236 yards against Bama only 5.6 yards per attempt zero passing touchdowns in those two games put in the postseason you look at 2018 they get to the postseason against Clemson only passed for 160 yards no touchdowns one interception so in your last three postseason games against a opponent that was on your level Notre Dame is not thrown a single touchdown pass not not one not one and if you go back to if you look at the biggest postseason games Notre Dame is played would you agree that it's Bama in 2012 Ohio State in 2015 and LSU in 2017 Clemson in 2018 and then Clemson and Bama in 2020 so that's what one two three four five six postseason games is that accurate right in those games Vince they've only thrown five touchdown passes wow and if you go back and look at it one a couple of them were late you know 2012 that a late touchdown pass when they were getting killed by Bama you know and then that LSU team they beat was good but not great you know people appoint Oklahoma State and festival I don't care about Oklahoma State and the festival they didn't have their defensive coordinator there was nothing on the line it wasn't a this game matters all the games that I just pointed to something was on the line 2020 ACC Championship 2020 playoff game and that's why you could even say 2017 LSU you could even take it that out of the mix because I mean it was it wasn't like yeah what was what was what was on the line was Brian Kelly's career that's true you know after 2016 you come out you get a lot of positive vibes and then you completely go on the tank down the stretch you know because remember at one point time Notre Dame in 2017 was what eight and one and ranked very high and then they lost it got killed by Miami beat Navy barely got spanked by Stanford if they go out and lose to LSU and lay lose three the last four all the positive momentum from that previous season are gone gone so if you it's even the numbers even worse events if you take the LSU game out which you probably should and you look at the Ohio State game in 2015 which I thought was a huge moment for Notre Dame you look at the Clemson bowl game or the Clemson title playoff game the Bama playoff game and then the Clemson ACC title game and the Bama game you only have five games three touchdown passes in those games none of them were competitive none of them were competitive and and if that doesn't change Vince then at the end of the day when the season ends it's going to be the same story for Notre Dame the numbers are going to look better the stats will do you know what I mean the stats will be better for a host of reasons we'll get into but at the end of the day Vince it's about can you do it when it matters most sure and that's where a lot of what we're going to talk about is focused on when we talk about concerns and reasons to be optimistic and all those type of things it's not about well can they throw the ball on northern Illinois and Purdue and in Miami Ohio and Virginia or even or honestly even Texas A&M although I would say that will tell us something because it is a big road game and all those reasons but what are they going to do when it when it matters most can they throw the ball against Louisville this year can they throw the ball against Florida State this year and it's throw the ball against USC this year and then throw the ball against A&M and then when they get to the postseason can they throw the ball then like look Notre Dame is absolutely a running football team they're always going to be a team that that is built around being able to run the football Vince I don't ever want that to change right but to win a championship in the modern era you got to throw it you can't be two 1988 Notre Dame right you can't you're just not going to win that way it's not realistic especially if you've got to win four games right there may be games we're in the playoff where you can go out there and say hey we're going we're going to go out there and we're going to we're going to run the ball all over this 12 seed okay cool maybe being able to do that in the second round it gets an ACC champ or a big 12 champ or a not that great big tenor SEC champ in one of those years where maybe that's the case but once you get in the semifinals you're right back to where you were in a 14 playoff now you're playing the cream of the crop can you throw the ball now you're playing teams will have equal talent that you have or at least close maybe slightly more maybe slightly less but they're in the ballpark that's where Notre Dame has had problems over the years and that's where we're going to find out if this team can really take it to that next step you know and and and there's reasons to be optimistic sure but they've got to prove it and so what this show is going to focus on Vince when we talk about the offense is okay what are the reasons to be optimistic what are the big concerns who are the key players involved in making it successful in those moments because with the talent they have a quarterback and receiver i mean i wrote an article today Vince about you know the receiving core and how the transfer class has been so instrumental in the optimism about that here here's a number for you if the transfer class doesn't show up Notre Dame would be returning this is be their returning production at receiver from last year 61 catches 942 yards and 12 touchdowns that's their returning production at receiver from last season that's it right now you add the transfers in 131 catches 2,038 yards and and 10 touchdowns is what those guys had by themselves okay now you add them to the roster and it's 192 catches 2,980 yards and 22 touchdowns last season not not for their careers last season and you start say okay there's no doubt northern Illinois is in trouble by me of Ohio is in trouble oh sure Virginia is in trouble armies in trouble navies in trouble that's why i'm still like dude i don't care who the quarterback is this is a 10 win team should be a 10 win team just because on town alone but but again your standard at Notre Dame isn't can you go 10 and 2 every year right your standard is can you compete for a championship and so will the things we discuss be enough or what the concerns are relative to how they perform in the biggest moments and what they do when they get to the postseason that's going to be the question and again i'm not saying they're not going to what i'm saying is that's the unknown we can be as optimistic as we want to be but it's now show me mode and these are the things that we think that are going to need to be done or can be done or reasons why we think that this may be the year we do start to see that from this offense and that's what kind of gets me a little fired up fence i don't know how it couldn't get you fired up and you know we have grown accustomed to the past game dominating the inferior opponents i mean we have right i mean we we go into these games and we expect fireworks and we expect high scores and we expect points and we expect yards and all of those things and and that's one of the things that we actually give brian kelly a lot of credit for from when he was here is that and i know we're talking past games specifically but overall they're beating the teams they should beat on a regular basis and that wasn't always the case pre 2016 post 2016 it really was right and that's not always an easy thing to do right i mean it's just still college football and there's still you know the the any given sunday kind of a deal with the nfl i mean it's a similar situation but he made it so that they win those games and brian kelly deserves credit for that absolutely because they didn't do that like you said pre 2015 right there's plenty of games we could point to you like how do you lose that game exactly how do you lose the four and eight s north western how do you lose to tulsa that's a you know yeah they're a decent team but they're inferior to you how do you lose to navy by 18 points you know i mean how there are so many those games you're just like i don't know how you lose that game right and one thing that brian kelly corrected a lot because of the the hires he made matt payless and mike elko and clarkley and chip long and you know guys like that uh with matt payless being at the very top of that list it you've got to give him credit for that and mark is freeman learned in year one of his first year goals are not easy games to win if you know i mean you can look past you know you're right exactly and you'll and that's why you lost a marshal that's why you lost a stanford right and and so then of course in year two you felt good that okay i think coach freeman's figured out that you that you've got to have a certain mindset for these moments sure and last year you know yes brian kelly always won those games but they weren't always the prettiest wins that's fair right there and you know the teams that were really bad they would blow out i mean you look at 2019 they blew out into mexico they blew up bowling green they weren't very good they had to come back against virginia you know that they struggled to be a very mediocre usc team that year they had to come back late and beat a mediocre virginia tech team that year you know i mean so there were some games yeah they had some blowout wins but there was also some games where they they struggled against teams that honestly just weren't that good mm-hmm what marcus freeman's team did last year was they not only beat those teams they obliterated those teams they weren't even competitive football games you know i mean like their pick game Notre Dame played like trash in the first quarter of that game in 158 to 7 right i mean you have sam harvard throwing picks and you you know you got all these mistakes in the phone two picks that game and they still beat him right there i don't think the offense played great against wake forest they still won 45 to 7 you know i mean those are the things you look at vince and say this team has shown like look we're we're like the big dogs now in that regard because like when a house date plays an inferior opponent 99 times out of there's the occasional perdue 2018 there's the occasional you know you didn't you weren't locked in against the maryllen you have to outscore them but by and large you go back and look at a house day over the years when they're playing significantly inferior opponents they blow them out right alabama blows those teams out you know there's always a georgia 2019 gets upset at home by four and eight south carolina those games happen every now and then but by and large when when bam is when georgias played an inferior opponent they've blown them out that's what the best teams do that's progress but those teams also beat the better teams and most of curby smarts losses like in big games in his career work to the same person they say but you know what i mean so those are things you look at and say this team's got this team's got to show that but you can't ignore the fact that they've figured out how to beat everybody else and and and that's what kind of gives you a a conference the baselines at least going to be here as a team as an offense but we have to find out if they can if they can do that next thing and that's going to be uh that's going to be something very interesting to to see how it unfolds and we're going to express some reasons why we actually think it's going to be it's going to be a positive this year but then also things that could maybe derail it right before we get into that make sure you hit the like button to subscribe button that 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