Pop Culture Confidential

Episode 26: The Oscar Countdown Continues!

full frenzy and what better way to start the year than to predict the nominees for this year’s Oscars. We last spoke to awards expert Sasha Stone, Awards Daily, after Telluride in September. Now we check in with Sasha and ask the big questions: Who are the frontrunners? What happened to the early buzz for Steve Jobs? Will Alicia Vikander receive two nominations? And much more! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Duration:: 27m
Broadcast on:: 03 Mar 2016
Audio Format:: other

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Much like New Year's Eve, it'll be a night that ends with a lot of drunk, disappointed people swearing they'll do better next year. The Oscars Live Oscars Sunday, February 28th on ABC. Hi, I'm Christina Jarlink-Biro, Happy New Year and welcome back to everyone listening. So it's the first days of January and that means it's pretty much award season frenzy in the movie community leading up to the Oscars in February. And I can't think of a better way to start the pop culture confidential 2016 season than continuing our very, very in-depth analysis and countdown towards the Oscars. With Oscar expert Sasha Stone of Awards Daily, welcome back Sasha, so great to have you here again. Oh, thank you for having me. It's so nice to talk to you. So Sasha, I wanted to talk to you before the official Oscar ballot deadline on January 8th when the Academy has finished voting on the nominees. The Golden Globes are just a few days away and then on January 14th, the Oscar nominations are announced. In these past few weeks, there's been a flurry of critics awards and nominations handed out and they tend to be a huge predictor of the Oscars as you have taught us. The Screen Actors Guild, the New York Film Critics and LA Film Critics, the Writers Guild, et cetera. But just a few moments ago, the Producers Guild announced its nominations and there there was no Carol, no Force Awakens, no hateful 8. What happened there and did it surprise you? Well, I think that it's kind of a crazy year. I feel like this is maybe one of the first years I've seen in a long time where the pundits, people like me, kind of don't know where they're going or what to predict because it's been so unpredictable and that happens sometimes where we just have no idea. Every announcement is a new surprise it seems like and I don't know if that's because the amount of awards coverage has just sort of tuned everybody out so we're on our own channel and the voters are all on their own channel and there's no communication back and forth between the two so that we're kind of driving our own narrative and we expect that the voters are also going to follow that narrative if they're staying on top of Twitter. But there are some things that seem fast and true that are holding truth. So what do you say about this Producer Guild thing that, I mean, Carol has won so many other of these awards that have been this past month. What happened here? Well, I think the thing about Carol is that people weren't really listening to what people were saying about it in larger groups. So I think that we were driving the narrative because we saw it back in Cannes and we loved it so much and we were championing it and our advocacy kind of got in the way of our predictions thinking of course it's going to go. It's Weinstein. You know, they went to Telluride, it's done really well. It has two strong best actors performances. It's the most beautiful film of the year. The cinematography is incredible. How could they possibly ignore it? And in fact, the Academy might not. It's still my 10 for best picture. The Producer Guild did. What it shows me is that the Producer Guild and the Academy both have the preferential ballot which means they pick their top movie. So it has to be their passionate favorites and then it has to go on down their list. All those not appear to have had enough or room for that matter which I always had my doubts about room but I kind of went along with it because it seemed like it was really strong. Brooklyn is the one that's coming back with the Producer Guild. So now we're seeing more of what the broader Academy thinks or industry thinks of these movies as opposed to critics, pundits and bloggers who are much more insular in that world of like how we define a good film. The thing about Carol is that it has visceral reactions from some people that I was pushing aside because I love the movie so much and I didn't have this experience but there were people who said to me three different people told me they thought Cape Blanche it was predatory. They didn't like it. One was a gay man who said he thought she was predatory. She was too old for Murni Mara. You know a couple of other people told me the same thing and then I talked to somebody else who said that their other friends of those said the exact same thing and so that is something that you know is just a reaction, an irrational reaction to the casting of the film that critics didn't see or address or care about and you know we're all just sort of swooning at it. But you said that the bigger groups weren't talking about Carol but the bigger groups are talking about Force Awakens and that wasn't on the producer guilds nomination today either. Yeah well the thing about the Force Awakens is that the movie on its own wasn't going to get in there's no way. It's a sequel, it's branded, it's not very deep, it's pretty simple, it's fun but it's not the kind of movie they usually choose. The only thing that would have pushed it in was two things. Kathleen Kennedy produced it then number two it's going to be the highest grossing film of all time but when they were filling out their ballots they didn't know that because it hadn't yet hit, it hadn't overtaken Avatar's box office and that is impressive enough to put it in the race. So if producers guild had their ballots right now and they were voting they'd probably put it in there but they had it earlier you know they turned them all in earlier before this news really broke so it's still an open question whether the academy will do that or not. And then a few sort of surprises were that it was a pretty good sci-fi lineup at the producers guild it was the Martian, Ex Machina and something else that I've now forgotten. And Max. Oh yes, Mad Max. Right people don't often think of it as sci-fi because they think it's you know it's on the ground but it is a future movie it's about the out end of the world the apocalypse and I guess it would be or dystopic you know fiction or they call it I think it does qualify sci-fi and I'm not really sure that it does actually but I know that it's not it doesn't take place in present day it's future. So yeah those three and you know we don't know if all three will make it into the Oscars. The Martian and Mad Max will but I'm not sure about it Ex Machina. But that's pretty that seems like a pretty forward thing for the Oscars and producers guild this year those three movies. Oh for sure yeah the producers guild they're a little more open because they did nominate Star Trek of all things and District 9 and Avatar the same year so they did have that year where they had three the Academy only picked District 9 and Avatar they didn't pick Star Trek so that's interesting but but yeah they they are this is the thing about this year is there's so many choices so many choices of films to pick and they're all really good and so in a way no one really knew how it was going to go starting with the SAG Awards were a huge surprise to everybody because you had Beast of No Nation which you know nobody thought was going to get do anything because it was such a small movie straight out of Compton Trumbo came out of left field and then the big shorts suddenly showed up and and now it looks like it's dominating the race and spotlight and you know nobody thought nobody would have predicted that the SAG would have gone that way they would have said Carol broke room you know one of these movies that we were talking about not movies that they liked but they I guess you know don't like those movies is which is we thought that they would so that was a surprise then spotlight getting left off of the Eddie nominations the editor's Guild was a huge surprise because that's a really important stat you know you haven't seen a winner without an editing nomination since like driving Miss Daisy like that's how okay so they go together editing and best picture and directing yeah editing directing and best picture and the guilds have about 6000 people so it's just been a really unpredictable crazy ride and I don't think anyone can say with confidence they know where this thing is going in any category there's not one category that I think is decided well we talked last time it was right after you had been until you're right it was in September and everyone was talking about Steve Jobs the movie is it just me or is that Oscar buzz died down well it's interesting isn't it because it died and the reason it died was because it they oh they decided to take the movie wide and not release just keep it in limited box office because if it had stayed in limited box office it would have slowly gained speed people would have seen it maybe they would have liked it maybe they wouldn't have but once it went wide and it bombed I mean it bombed at the box office worse than I mean I don't even think it's made more money since that day that it opened it it's just stalled at 17 million and it never made and that's one thing in the in the industry that they don't like that they can't deal with is an out and out bomb so that hurt them and that's why nobody's really going near the movie right now what do you do you're not an engineer you're not a designer you can't put a hammer to a nail I built the circuit board the graphical interface was stolen so how come 10 times in a day I read Steve Jobs as a genius what do you do musicians play their instruments I play the orchestra and if you would have to say the front runners today for best picture what would those be well if you go by stats right now only two movies can really win and that's the big short and spotlight and the big short even has the believe it or not has the edge over spotlight because it has the editors skilled nominations the whole housing market is propped up on these bad loans they will fail the housing market is rock solid it's a time bomb so Mike Murray who gets his haircut supercuts and doesn't wear shoes knows more than Alan Greenspan dark to Mike Murray yes he does you know what I pissed off American people getting screwed by the big banks and I'm getting mad or mad or unbelievable then this guy walks into my office and says there's some shady stuff going down spotlight has the benefit of being a film coming out of Telluride and those kind of those movies since million dollar baby have always won like the earlier you get it out there the better chance it has it has a couple of strikes against it but but those are the two I think that have the biggest chance and then right behind them I would say would be the Martian which is still going strong and Mad Max which is also good those two kind of might cancel each other out right because they're they're both sort of you know sci-fi movies they're both by you know old time respected directors if anyone here has missed it the the big short is an Adam McKay movie about the housing bubble basically with an incredible cast and spotlight is the movie about the Boston Globe investigation into the Catholic priest scandal in Boston in 2007 I think right but those four that's a pretty good lineup you know we always try to do since we have more than five best pictures now we always try to say well what would be the five if they were still doing five and I think we can pretty much say that the five would be spotlight big short Martian man max and then one more and what one would that be that would be an open slot and and you know it could be Brooklyn because Brooklyn is really well loved it's straight out of Compton it could be that you know that's coming up in the the end here but but those seem to be to me the strongest contenders right now and what happened sort of everyone was talking and using the the words Oscar Bates about two movies reason that's the revenant and hateful eight and and those don't seem to be coming up much either in terms of what could be nominated in the bigger category to take it back at the revenant would be number five oh you think so yeah I do I'm sorry forgive me that's that's the one that would be number five so it's it's it's a it's a well respected highly ambitious film that I think they would wouldn't ignore you know what I mean I mean I mean maybe it would get left off and it would be a big shock or whatever but um but hateful aid is too violent it's too you know the the last part of it is too violent for most people and certainly for the academy it would never they would never go for that kind of thing I mean they picked violent movies in the past all the Scorsese movies of course in the godfather movies and sounds of the lambs but the hateful aid has much more extreme violence than any of those movies and there doesn't even seem to really be a point to it so I don't really have a lot of faith I mean it is an outside chance of getting in but look at all these other movies that are pushing through that would take that spot you know room and even star wars and inside out and um base of no nation or creed you know those movies would would definitely take take precedence over hateful aid I think and those were sort of we talked a little bit about the guilds and and and and those the winners and those but everyone thought that the are looking on twitter that the golden globes were kind of a weird did you feel that way too the nominations a little bit um I didn't think that they were too weird considering they're you know they they're a little bit more in line with what Oscar pundits and critics are thinking they're a little bit more like the sags were just completely out of left field okay how well will Sarah Silverman and Helen Marin in the best actress race like no one would have ever predicted that said that Helen Marin would have gotten in for woman in gold and that Sarah Silverman would have gotten in for I smile back both those movies were panned by critics so surprising to see that um but sag they I mean golden glibs kind of went along a little bit more with the narrative quote unquote you know like uh they put runi Mara and um and Kate Blanche at both in lead and they have Carol you know they have I think Todd Haynes is nominated for director there so that's why I don't really can't carol out for best picture of the Oscars because I think that it still has enough power in that smaller smaller branches will see it as their favorite movie and it might get in how much of a predictor is the golden globes to the Oscars the golden globe um screenplay category is pretty pretty good at figuring out what's going to go give or take a movie here or there but um but you really want to show up there if you want to win best picture and I think both spotlight and big shorter in that category um but what they do the golden globes is that they give people a chance to get up in front of an audience a really big audience and they can sway buzz like if they get up there and nobody likes seeing them win and they're just like oh he shouldn't have won you know then they're not going to vote for you and if but if they love seeing you win like Kate Winslet winning two Oscar or two golden globes in one night they're going to be so excited they're going to want to vote for you so it can sway public opinion it's it's major publicity but as far as its own nominations go um they the Oscar ballots closed before the um before the golden globe right the Oscar ballots closed on now on January 8th but then they can still vote after the golden globe winners have been announced this weekend so that yeah okay okay I get it then so we have a um the Swedish Alicia Vikander in what seems to be in several separate categories during these um other awards that have been both for X Machina and for um the Danish girl is that good or bad that she's being considered in two movies uh I think it's great she's very you know popular she's sort of taking the town by storm right now and um uh I think she's going to get in for both actually that's my prediction but I could be totally wrong I think she's getting in for lead for Danish girl and supporting for X Machina at the Oscars but we'll see I think she's going to end up being a double nominee which gives her a better chance at actually winning one oh you think so because sometimes one would say that it being nominated in two place would sort of cancel you out but not in this case you think ah yeah it can it's definitely can but it used to be back of the days the 70s and 80s that if you got a double nomination you would win one of them supporting usually like Jessica Lange winning for Tootsie and not for Francis you know but um but I don't know about now I think that she's going to win an Oscar I'm just not sure in which category but um oh so you're pretty sure about that I think yeah I think she's really good in Danish girl and X Machina and I think the buzz of the both performances and plus people are in love with her here they're just in love with her the voters and so I think if she gets in supporting for Danish girl she'll win if she gets in supporting for X Machina she'll win she has a really good chance of winning um so we'll see yeah I think I think that Alicia Vikander is going to walk away and ask her winner but we'll see if I'm right hello how do you feel about her oh man she's amazing you're impressed yes do you want to be my friend of course now the question is how does she feel about you do you think about me when we are together did you give her sexuality as a diversion tactic this is your insecurity talking this is not your intellect did you know that I was brought here to test you does Ava actually like you she pretending to like you Nathan isn't your friend wrong about what if we see the categories both for supporting actress and actress seem really tight this year am I right yeah yeah but but but supporting has always been kind of down to Vikander versus Rooney Mara and if if well let's say they both go in for Danish girl and Carolyn neither of those films gets in for best picture well that it's gonna be twice as hard for Rooney Mara to get in um then to win that it would be for um Alicia Vikander because she already has a PGA nomination for ex machina she's you know really well like she comes in with all that buzz so yeah I mean I think she's she's got a really good shot but yeah it's a pretty crowded there in I can't think of a single category where there's a slam dunk winner I don't even think Leonardo DiCaprio is a is a lock for to win and best actor you know well if we can just now this is it'll this will be the week before the nominations come out on the 14th to wrap this up would you mind giving us who you think will be nominated and then we'll see next week if you were right for a couple of the categories who's going to be nominated for best actor for example oh that's a top one willingness to be wrong yes okay you're very brave now I think it's gonna be um I'll go from most likely to lead to what I'm not so sure about so it goes Brian Cranston Leonardo DiCaprio I think that it will be Steve Carell for the big short that's three I think Matt Damon gets in for the Martian that's four and then five is going to be down to Eddie Redmayne versus Johnny DiCap for their films I think that it's going to be really tight there but um but I don't know who gets the edge I you know one from spotlight well they're going to be in supporting okay so who's supporting actor that's the toughest category to predict right now but I'd say Mark Reiland's Bridge of Spies is a lock I'm gonna say Idris Elba from Beast of No Nation probably Christian Bale from the big short and then I think it's Sylvester Stallone from Creed that's four and then the fifth spot is going to be tough it's going to be Jacob Tremblay for room versus Paul Dano for Love and Mercy versus Michael Shannon for 99 homes I don't think the spotlight guys are getting in because the reason is Mark Ruffalo is the one who deserves to get the nomination because his is the standout performance but no one really wants to let go of Michael Keaton because they love him so much and he didn't win for Birdman he's such a big star so the two of them are kind of cancelling each other out voters aren't going to pick both because it's too competitive of a year so they choose one or the other and they end up kind of making it so neither of them but if money if I had to bet I'd bet that Ruffalo is the one that gets in if they really love the movie then you'll see it there an actress supporting a bit actress would be Bri Larson from room Siercia Ronan Brooklyn Kate Blanche at Carol I'm going to say Alicia Vikander the Danish girl and then it gets a little trickier because you have Jennifer Lawrence maybe for Joy or Charlotte Rambling for 45 years if Alicia Vikander gets in supporting in that and that leaves open a slot it's possible you could see Charlies get in for Mad Max Ferry Road it's an outside chance but it's not totally out of you know out of the realm of likely likelihood supporting would be Alicia Vikander for either Ex Machina or Danish girl Rudy Mara for Carol Jennifer Jason Lane for the hatefully Kate Winslet for Steve Jobs and then the fifth spot is down to Kristen Stewart versus Helen Marin probably or Rachel McAdams for spotlight she could get into you want to watch for spotlight's popularity with the Academy by how many acting nominations it gets because the actors are the biggest branch of the Academy and so what they like really matters so you want to watch for what films that they like that get acting nominations and that's a tough one I guess the spotlight and be the ones that are sort of ensembles that people may be not able to pick out exactly like the best so and then finally director and best film so director is going to be George Miller from Mad Max Ferry Road and I'm going to say Ridley Scott for the Martian Tom McCarthy for spotlight in a retool for the Revenant and then it's down to Todd Haynes for Carol versus Steven Spielberg for Bridge of Spies and that's how I think it's going to go no I'm sorry excuse me Adam McKay for the big short he's really in there oh yes of course I got to put him back up at the top yeah no he's definitely up there oh yeah I don't know why I have him so low on my list that's crazy and then Ridley Scott for the Martian Tom McCarthy spotlight in a retool Revenant and then Todd Haynes and Steven Spielberg will battle it out for that fifth spot and then best picture spotlight the big short Mad Max the Martian the Revenant straight out of Compton Bridge of Spies Brooklyn and then I'm going to still predict Carol and Sicario would be my number 10 if the listeners don't remember it's 10 up to 10 that can be nominated to 10 but usually 9 like 10 is considered an anomaly like it's it has to be kind of a freaky thing to get 10 this could be the year that they finally get 10 but since they changed the rules they've the most they've ever gotten is nine well this is I'm we're gonna we'll we'll tweet you next week when we've heard donations were nice talking with you took so long no no that's fine and and maybe I can give you a call back before end of February there before and we'll get your predictions the real predictions for the big night sounds good thank you so much again to Sasha Stone of awards daily calm follow her on Twitter for example the best awards news around and to see about her predictions she made here for the nominations and thank you for listening we have so many great things coming up on this season we're even taking this little show on the road more information about that really soon but check us out on Twitter at pod pop culture and on the site popcultureconfidential.com this show was edited by Tom Hanson music by call boy produced by Renee Vitichtet and myself I'm Christina you're a link hero until next time hello podcast fans it is I Bruce Vellanche for over 25 years I worked on the Academy Awards so you didn't have to in that time I've seen and heard things that should not be seen or heard or certainly built and now for the first time I'm sharing all my behind the scenes stories and firsthand knowledge about the Oscars the blood the sweat the tears the slap all the things you didn't see so join me as I use humor and insight to break down the Oscar awards of the past to explain how and why your favorite movie didn't win why some actors and some directors at the fire their agents and how the whole process works or sometimes doesn't work this is the Oscars what were they thinking available wherever you get podcasts [BLANK_AUDIO]