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Kroger, fresh for everyone. Fuel restrictions apply. Welcome to Raids and Barrels. It's Thursday, June 20th, there. And I bring you Sarah's here with you on this episode. We dig into some recent news. A lot of star players coming back from injuries. Couple guys going down with new injuries. So we'll get into that project prospect as we have each and every week on Thursday, digging into some prospect related news and a few names that might be of interest to you in various formats. We're also going to have our weekend waiver wire preview, where it looks like the guardians might be up to something again, you know, they're always up to something. I deserve to be shamed for writing them off because I watch a team that does it in a similar way on an everyday basis. So for me to be a skeptical of the guardians of all people, I deserve extra shame. Well, I mean, there's a lot going on there. We've talked about the ballpark dimensions changing and how it's become more offensive friendly. And I saw a really interesting graphic from at Brooks gate this week that showed the square footage of the field of like fair ground in each park. And Cleveland was the second smallest. Surprise. So the smallest was Cincinnati. Fenway. Fenway is a little smaller. And when I was looking at that and just thinking about park factors and it's an interesting idea to be known for churning out pitching and then all of a sudden change your park. There's something to this maybe that smart teams are making park changes at certain times in their organizational development process. Just think of the Orioles in Mount wall to more. That seems like very much like a plan thing, you know, it was like, we've got these guys coming up. This is what we have right now. We want we don't want Chris Rodriguez to, you know, have every mistake we've lasted. We got some young pictures coming up and we wanted to be a little bit more picture friendly and like, I don't know, it seemed like it really worked for them. And maybe this Cleveland thing will work similarly. And some of it, of course, yeah, it's simple, like redesign. Let's plan to do this. Other things we've talked about in the past, adjacent construction, making changes to ballpark factors might even be in the team's control in some cases. In Toronto, was that on purpose for anything how the game played? Because then that doesn't seem to have worked in their favor. Whereas it was probably just a thing that they wanted to do to make more money, because they were they made them into like little bar spaces or something that we lauded before, you know, this week. Right. So I don't know, it seems like high, it seems like a lot like high stakes sort of playing around to like think that you're going to change something about your ballpark to help your team. You really could go either way. I think the Mount Waltimore example makes a lot more sense in the you had a long window of that being a difficult place to pitch. And regardless of what you have as an organizational strength, you don't want your ballpark to feel unfair. Like, that's probably not a good feeling, because it it's going to burn you as much as it's going to help you. That's like so neutralize, like a good move bringing in the walls and triples out a little bit, you know, like, yes, they said it was for to take the bullpen off the field. And that's a safety issue. And that's that's a good idea. But also it worked to kind of make it a slightly more fair park. So yeah, I think some of those changes long term by design. I think if you're tweaking your ballpark every year, which no one's done that. I think you've gone too far. Walls are going back out. No, they're coming back here. Just become like the bleachers, like, in high school, push a few rows back and just set up the wall five, 10 feet further back, depending on who's pitching that. Yeah, exactly. Or like, or like, if you have like a David Schneider that continues to pull the ball, like you have like, you put like the Crawford boxes out in there, you know, where you just have like some weird overhang where or can you imagine just like taking the wall and you have this one player that for some reason hits the ball in one place all the time. And you take the wall and make a little circular cut out that like captures his heat map where he let the ball turn. And Tatisse hits another double to the Tatisse circle. I feel like that's a future for baseball that I don't quite want. No, what I don't wild. It was so wild. I wonder if the commissioner would step and be like, "You can't cut circles into your outfield wall." Yeah, no Swiss cheese outfield walls. I mean, we don't want to turn into a carnival out there. We're all about having fun with that. That might be a notch too far on the dial. Well, we used to have a park with a flagpole in it. Right. Well, Tal's Hill. I mean, look, so the big news in the baseball world was the passing of Willie Mays on Tuesday at the age of 93. And I've seen the catch on the highlight reels for my entire life. As long as I've been watching baseball, the catch comes up. And that game was being played at the polo grounds. And you want to talk about ballparks with unusual dimensions. That's part of why the catch exists because he was running to like, I don't know, it was like 500 feet out there. Almost 500 feet to dead center, like 489, I think is the number they had on it. But when you watch the highlights, the other thing you notice as you start to rewatch it is how quickly Mays gets rid of the ball after making the over the shoulder catch. Because what they said about the polo grounds was that runners would often tag up from second and score on deep flyouts because it was so far away. And may is going full speed with his back towards home plate as the catch fires it back in the runner on second base also was kind of caught in between like, is this going to get over his head? Is he going to catch it? You could kind of see when you rewatch it to that there's a little bit of indecision, but regardless, just an amazing play and an amazing life for Willie Mays. There were a lot of great tributes that have come in in the last 36 hours. And the facts of his career are just unbelievable. Jason Stark articulated those really well in a piece today. And this is the one that I think just jumps off the page to me. Willie Mays led National League position players in war 10 times. He only won two MVP awards, but he led position players in war 10 times. That is impossible. We'll never see a player do that again. My contention is he's the best player of all time. And the reason I got a little pushback from it. And I just didn't want to engage in an intellectual debate on the passing of somebody. But I do think it's worth making my case, which is that if you look at something like Fangrass War, he's behind a player that played in pre integration baseball and that's of no fault of Babe Ruth, but he did not play the best player pool. You know, you did not play the most diverse best player pool with players from all over. And then second place is Barry Bonds. And I don't really have to get into all that for you to know that like, you know, maybe some of those war should be docked from his total, you know, we don't know how much. But and then lastly, even if you just look at the players themselves that are in the top three bonds, Ruth and Mays. Mays is very obviously the best all around player. Babe Ruth didn't play centerfield. Barry Bonds moved off a centerfield. Mays played centerfield front to back. And maybe our defensive numbers don't capture his defensive brilliance as much as they could. Like how could they? The defensive stats now aren't amazing. They're even worse the further back you go. So that's my case. And the last little bit that on top of that is he absolutely had the flair and the sort of energized. I mean, people people tried to get at this Tyler Kepner had a piece about this about how he just sort of energized baseball that he was he was a star star. Like he really was he really was everything. I mean, he was the highlight reel on the base pass, you know, hitting, fielding, just everything. I mean, just to just think that like he had a play that we call the catch. You know what I mean? Like, that's amazing. Like, we know what you're talking about. It's like, there's nobody. Does anybody have the hit? I think the closest thing to it is Babe Ruth calling a shot. Right. Okay. Yeah. Those are the two plays in baseball history that are there's right there. They're the place. There's those two. And there are a thousand great moments, thousands of great moments in baseball history. But those two, they just rise above to the top of baseball lore. I think also Michael Salfino was talking about Willie Mays is the year one year he had like a 10 war year and the and the Giants won the World Series. Yeah, I think it was 54. And the best other player on this team was Hank Thompson, who was like a four wind player, Alvin Dark, and then Don Mueller and like for low replacement guys. So basically, he put that team on his back and was the player on this team. And this was during a time when, you know, I think it was the Yankees winning a lot. Right. So that's kind of, you know, Salfino's point was like, that's like like the MVP of MVP. Like, you know, the way that we think of value and like winning and stuff like he was the best player in the league and also on his team and so much better than everybody else on his team that he was just like, here, I'll win it for us, you know, and they won it all, you know. So it's like, you know, Willie Mays is just, he's he was great. And then locally, really cool personality. There's this weird thing where apparently he was a greeter at Bally's at a he was like involved with casinos. Like he was that's what some of what he did after he played was he was paid by casinos to sort of hang out. And because he was paid by casinos, baseball didn't let him back in or something. There was he was like 10 years he wasn't really supposed to be, you know, around baseball because he was dealing with casinos. That's in the face of what's happening currently. That's even more frustrating. Yeah, he was led back in once that was softened. And thank God, because he was around a lot at San Francisco Giants games and just super cool. Like, like he would give little speeches and he would like, you know, be on the field a bunch. It just seemed like a really nice man, you know, and really engaging cool dude. And he represented the Giants, you know, even as he was older and Barry Bonds was his grandson. Like it was kind of like the lifeblood of the Giants, you know. That's an icon, an American icon and lost just a couple of days before the game at Rickwood Field in Birmingham, too, which was just it's going to change. It's going to change the tone of what we see Thursday night in Birmingham. It's going to be a night where the memories of Willie Mays kind of take over and understandably so. But it's just larger than life, I think is the way I think you would describe Willie Mays and a player that I wish I could have seen play and a person I just wish I could have met had one conversation with because I think it everybody that had that opportunity seems better for it, happier for it, more joyful for it. And obviously someone that has had an influence in American history that is basically unmatched in. We're not going to see a player have an impact on the game like this again. It's not going to happen. It's just different, different times, different era. Moving on to the usual types of things we talk about. It's not all bad. See the good news here. It's not just players getting hurt. It's some players coming back. Eric Cole's back. You know, that's a good thing, right? We're happy to have all the way back. He wasn't all the way back in terms of workload. He wasn't all the way back in terms of fastball, below 94 seven after he was 96 eight last year. Where do you draw the line in terms of it being a problem? Like is it three starts, five starts given what we know about Garrett Cole age, all the factors. When would you be really alarmed? I mean, you seem somewhat concerned already, but when is it really a problem? I would say three starts is a good number because according to Jeff Zimmerman's research, three starts actually predicts rest of season, fastball velocity, like almost perfectly, you know, like it's there's just it's all signal almost at that point. That's the safest way to go about it. I would say that despite his Vilo being down, he has, he's always had good ride on his fastball, good shapes. He had a 107 stuff plus. And there is a chance that he's so good that even with a diminished fastball, he's still good, you know, but I think if I had to guess like how he would perform if his velocity stayed where it is, is that I would guess that he would kind of return to those years where he had the higher home run rates, you know, and so we might see even a season like 2022 with a 350 ERA and a one and a half homers per nine, you know, maybe a little bit reduced strikeout rate. So maybe like a 375 ERA, like no matter what, I think he'll be good. The question is, will he be the man? And I'm not sure he will be at 947 at 94 seven changes. You know, a lot about the ceiling, but he also wouldn't be bad at 94 seven. I also think you change up a lot of what you do. I think if you lose that much of velocity, if that's how this is unfolds for Garrett Cole, I think like he threw 21% cutters. Like that's, that's part of the story. Yeah. Yeah. And again, 62 pitches. So they kind of brought him back a little early just to get, get him going, get those innings in their rotation instead of having him make another rehab starter too. So I think as long as he bounces back physically, he's feeling good coming off the start, even though the velocity is down, it's, it's a smaller amount of panic for me than it would ordinarily be given, given the circumstances. Yeah, I agree. Given my trust in the secondaries. Speaking of Yankees news though, Aaron Judge was not in the lineup Wednesday after getting hit by a pitch in the hand. Good news, I think was that the X-rays and CT scans Tuesday night after you hit by a pitch were negative. So probably not more than a day to day situation unless something's changed. That's the scariest play in baseball for me. If he's like on your team, if he's on your, the team that you root for, or just generally the ball that's like coming up on them towards the hands, I'm just like, Oh God, there here comes a broken hand. I mean, it's, we just saw it with Mookie Betts, right? It's, it's millimeters sometimes. The difference between a major fracture and something that's painful, but not going to cost you more than a couple of games. And it looks like Judge fits more into that latter group. I guess I'm not. Aaron Otto escaped injury. Yeah, he's supposed to be back Saturday. Part of why I think he went down so bad was I'm pretty sure that ball hit him in the elbow and then hit him in the nuts. Double. If you watch the video, it like hits him in the elbow and then it goes straight down to his crotch. And then he crumples in a heap. And everyone's like, Oh, his arms broke. And I was like, when they watch the replay, like, Oh, maybe it's not his arm that's hurting right now. It's both. But yeah, one of those things dropped into the ground. And one of those things will cost him a couple, cost him a couple of games at the end of the week, right? That's the, that's the difference. But he says he expects to return on Saturday. And I mean, I don't know if that's good news. He's, I've detailed that I don't, I don't think he's going to get back to where he once was still a little bit liked in terms of power output. Popped four homers in May and 23 games has won so far in 17 games in June. Yeah, it doesn't seem like he's comfortable. That's the main takeaway. I don't know if it's the back or if it's timing or if it's a combination of factors or something that we just don't know about yet, but no one are not out. But he does not have the obvious bounce back feel to him right now. A reduction in bat speed. I mean, the nice thing about knowing that maximum X of velocity is the thing that is closest, the closest tied to bat speed that we know among the different outcome metrics gives you a nice little one look at like, you know, I can compare an all an hour and out of bat speed to his previous ones just by looking at his max CV. And he's got the worst max of views career. We also know from some of the aging curves on bat speed that, you know, it does go down pretty precipitously in your mid 30s. The Kyle Braddish news was really sad. But I do think that was headed towards that. I mean, I just think that like, if you have a spring injury for a guy, then they say like he has a small tear or he sprained his elbow, a sprain is a tear. So like, if you hear the word sprain and elbow, if they're not getting Tommy John right away, they're going to get it sometime in the future soon. And I think that was, that was sort of how I read the Kyle Braddish situation as soon as he went down the beginning. And I was happy to see him pitched a little bit, but I never thought he was going to make it through the season. I was definitely concerned. I liked they at least tried to go the rest in PRP route. And unfortunately, this turned out in surgery. But with Braddish, you know, it was Tommy John with internal brace, according to Daniel Allen tuck from the Baltimore band. I'm just combining them now. Yeah, I was going to say, like, we're have to keep an eye on how these are reported. And I wonder if that's going to be the more normal or more common way to go. And I also wonder if that will either prolong the previously dubbed Tommy John Honeymoon period. Like, will we go from four to five years to eight? The recovery about two months or whatever. Yeah. And I think Mike Elias was quoted as saying he expects Braddish to still be down for 12 to 18 months. So it's not, it's not speeding it up if it's both. But if it increases the longevity coming back, if it was 12, that'd be actually better than most Tommy John's, like a more traditional Tommy John. So we could still, you could still be right that it could shave time off and it could be 12 months, 14 months, I think it's about sort of your average for the old, the old style of Tommy John. 18 is would be a bad outcome. But he'd miss all of next year, right? Yeah, he'd miss all of next year, but it's 18. I would settle for better long term outcomes, even if it didn't speed up recovery time, I realized the goal is to have both of those things get players back healthy faster and keep them healthy in the long run. I'm hoping that the combination of the replacement with the brace ends up being a better version of Tommy John surgery, if you will, where we end up with guys that are not breaking a second or even a third time, which has become more of a concern in recent years. When you need meal time inspiration, it's worth shopping Kroger, where you'll find over 30,000 mouthwatering choices that excite your inner foodie. 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And right now, you can save up to 40% on fine jewelry and 25% on engagement ring settings. During the Blunile anniversary sale, going on now, go to Blunile.com to shop the Blunile anniversary sale and save up to 40%. That's Blunile.com. The news on Mike Trout is disappointing. Sam Blun from the Athletic had a report that there's still not really a timeline and things are going more slowly than expected. What was the injury, a calf tear or? Maniscus. Maniscus surgery. Yeah. He has not started a running program yet and still looking for exercises that allow him to progress with minimal soreness. And there was uncertainty about the timetable. Basically, at the time, it was more like he should be back this year. That was the general thinking. And a lot of times, meniscus surgeries can be like six to eight week injuries, but it really depends on what else is going on. In Trout's case, I have been in a situation with no I.L. spots where holding onto Mike Trout made sense thinking about six to eight weeks and looking at how well he was playing when he got hurt. Now I'm starting to have some reservations about grinding it out in the absence of I.L. spots. Yeah, because it might just be the longer end of normal. We're going to hold on to Mookie Bats in main event, I think. And that's a six week timeline. Six to eight. Yep. For the guys that are early rounders, six to eight weeks is usually the timetable I see and say, all right, I'm going to grind out this next stretch without a player. I'm going to be one short. Trout wasn't really a first two rounder anyway. Right, you got a trout discount this year. And I think for some people, that was enough to say, yeah, I want to keep them, but I can't. It's a tough decision. Yeah, but I think this update, if you run the fence about it might be enough for you to say, all right, I'll take my chances, I'll drop them, maybe try to get them back in fab once we get some positive updates, once we get some progress toward a return, given the way things have trended so far for Mike Trout. Max Scherzer's coming back. See, I told you there'd be a couple players coming back. Scherzer's going to start on Saturday against the Royals. We didn't get any model numbers from his rehab starts. Did we? I know one of those starts at least was a couple of those starts were at AAA. So I thought maybe we'd get some numbers on that. Royals have been a little bit of a tough draw, too. So it's not an immediate must activate in all situations, but I got 105 pitches with a 78 stuff plus. It's hard to in the rehab since we talked about this with Walker Bueller. Yeah, is he throwing as hard as he can? Is he airing it out or is he just getting through it to get the work done to prepare himself? I tend to think veterans like Scherzer know what they're doing with arm care and not just get back. And that's more where his focus is. I wouldn't sound the alarms until I saw Major the Great Argonne's readings. And in fact, one of the things that was the separates sort of late career Scherzer from the excellent Scherzer was command of the breaking balls, which he couldn't really do with the back. And now that he has like five breaking balls, that's going to be something to watch for. But you got to watch him on your bench. There's no way you just wait, wait, leave him on the waver wire unless he wasn't in your player pool and you have to wait and then you have to wait for him to pitch anyway on Saturday before you do Sunday fat. Scherzer is 77% rostered right now in the Rotor wire online championship, 100% rostered in the main event, makes sense. But in leagues where he's available, so one in four leagues roughly where he's out there, I think you would bid on Scherzer so similar to a top pitching prospect. Like, yeah, even if he doesn't pitch well, as long as things look pretty good, you'd say, hey, this is probably better than most of the other pitchers that were taking chances out on the waver wire on a weekly basis. He's probably worth $150, $200 out of a thousand. So I think you'll see some pretty aggressive bids in those leagues and those are kind of unique circumstances where Scherzer's out there. But he is out there in a few places. Do you think the Rangers should sell? I think the beauty of our calendar, as we talked about on Tuesdays, we have time. We still have a month in change, right? I mean, if you had to decide today, they might still play it out in the playoffs today. Yeah, if the trade deadline was tomorrow, I think you'd still consider playing it out because Scherzer's coming back now. DeGrom could come back later. Tyler Malley could be back. You know, you've had Wyatt Langford injured and trying to adjust the big league pitching. You've had a stretch where Josh Young has barely been able to play because he's been hurt. Evan Carter's been hurt. Siegel's missed time. So you've weathered more than the normal share of injuries. And I think you could still look at the Rangers and say, yeah, they're they're about as good as they were last year. Maybe they're even going to be better once they get everybody healthy. The Verlander news was annoying to me because I didn't, I wasn't able to change my lineups in time. It sort of came down at a weird time of the day. And like, and I should maybe I should have known, you know, because he was like, as Nick hurts, he might make his next star. He's probably gonna make his next star. Oh, he's on the aisle. I always find the next strain, the neck discomfort, those types of seemingly minor injuries to be challenging, because a lot of times I feel like it's literally as simple as someone sleeping wrong and being too tight to go out and make their start. And by the time the next turn rolls around, they're okay. Yeah, but it can be really bad. It can be really bad. I mean, basically Turnbull season last year was was all neck problems. Right. And Verlander kind of looks slightly better version of the guy he was last year, even though the ERA is a little higher, has a bit of a home run problem. The 11 homers and 57 innings so far through 10 starts this season. Last couple turns against the Angels and Cardinal, only five innings, four earned allowed in both of those. So yeah, it's hard to know like, is this the new Verlander, this version, the 41 year old version of Verlander still good, still rosterable, still usable, but now dealing with more of these nagging injuries and less just less dominance, more of like your third or fourth best starting pitcher when he's out there. I think so. I think, you know, the contract is up this year. He has a player option for next year. I think he uses that one, but I'm not sure how many more years. I mean, could be one or two more years. I mean, he's 41. He's also at the point in his life where he's made more than enough money could just say, actually, I have my neck, my arm, whatever, doesn't feel good. And if the Astros aren't playing that one that I'm just going to hang it up, like he's made enough money where he doesn't have to exercise that option. He could very comfortably retire and would be no worse off for it. But I would love to see a pitcher of their year if it's something he's able to do. And hopefully it's only a short term stint on the IL for Verlander. But we've talked about this Astros rotation depth a few times. It's been tested and tested again. The good news around all of this is that Hunter Brown has really got back on track lately. He's looked much more like the guy we hoped he'd be coming into the season. If you go back through like May 22nd, his last six starts or so, that basically the last month on a rolling basis, a 41 to eight strikeout to walk ratio 170 ERA, 0.89 whip. He's not walking guys. He's cut down on the home run problems. Really seems like Hunter Brown has made the adjustments. That's been huge for the Astros. Yeah, I think that his cutter is kind of a hard slider more than a cut fastball. And that means that he was kind of a one fastball guy. And he didn't have great command of that one fastball. What you see is that he really turned it on and became a better pitcher when he threw the sinker in there. And I think it just means like multiple looks from the hard pitches and the soft pitches. All of the pitches were decent. You know, it was a matter of putting together in the right way. And I think he's doing that right now. This is the Hunter Brown that I believe in. Yeah, I'm right there with you. Now the name that actually can kind of gets us into project prospect today. Jake Bloss is coming up from the miners to take over a spot in the rotation. A new name in the mix. Really good numbers. Jake Bloss started the season with a handful of starts for starts at high a he's been pitching at double a getting great results by ratios. Strikeout rates come down a little bit with the promotion. That's not a huge surprise. But he's actually a bit of a prospect. Someone that might be a tad underrated. Fangrafts got some nice scouting grades on his arsenal overall at 55 fastball, 60 slider, 55 curve, 45 change and even 40 command, which for someone that started the year at high A is pretty good. I don't know if it's all going to fall into place right away. But we're talking about a guy who was a third round pick just last year getting pushed up into the big leagues a lot faster than expected as a result of these injuries. But someone that might be worth thinking about stashing in longer term leagues, especially play and keeper dynasty leagues, you know, auto new situations where you need future pitching. Even if Bloss is just temporarily here to cover for Verlander, he could be a bigger part of the plan next season given their organizational needs. Yeah, in the right up from long and hanging does says something that's kind of interesting to me that Bloss has different shapes on his different pitches. I do think there's a philosophical question there where you're defining pitches and you don't know if you should call that one pitch or two pitch and like, what will I do to the stuff plus numbers, you know, as it aggregates them. Some pitch models out there do their own pitch classifications for this reason, not necessarily that it would make a big difference in the actual class and like the stuff plus classification on the per pitch level. But when you sum it all up, you might be missing the picture, right? He might have, if he has two curve balls and Eric, along and hanging says he's basically two curve balls and two sliders. And you're saying he has one slide or one curve ball. But if you split it up, you see, oh, one of these is much better than the other. There's actually two curve balls in your one's much better than the other. At least as a pitching coach, it'd be easy to be like, Hey, stop throwing that other one. You know what I mean? Or it might be harder to face them as a hitter because you say, he has a slide on a curve. And then you get up there and you're like, what, that curve was totally different than the other curve, you know? That was something that Seth Lugo said in our long conversation this week was he has two arm slots, Seth Lugo. And so he throws all of his pitches from each arm slot and they're different from each arm slot. So not only does he have eight pitches, he almost has 16 pitches. I like this. I like this idea. I like this approach because it it's like being your own reliever. Hey, first time to the order, you got me up here, second time to the order, you got me down a little bit lower. Oh, and everything you thought you saw is actually going to be a little bit different. And it's like trying to hit in a fun house. You're really hard to hit in those situations. The only thing that bothers me about Blah specifically, though, statistically is, you know, these high strikeout rate numbers in the low liners. And then he gets to double A and it's 21% all of a sudden. Yeah, it's big dip. I don't know. I don't know that I am rushing to get him. And even even though long and hanging was into him, he put him 99th overall in the top 100. So he's barely a top prospect. But it's less than a year to being drafted, right? He isn't had a lot of time to move up. So I think that's kind of that's kind of an opportunity. But it's just like, well, let's see what he does. Tough debut. He's got the Orioles first time out. Nice. Nice challenge right away. So we're going to look at him before the weekend. But if you're like seeing names that are unfamiliar on the waiver wire, Jake Bloss is probably one of them in most cases, and there might be a little something there. I mean, Spencer Aragetty has struggled the doors open if he pitches well. There is a spot available even after Verlander returns if Jake Bloss pitches well. And there's a chance that his fastball is better than Aragetty's. Aragetty had a 72 stuff plus in the fastball. I think that's part of why he's up and down with results. He does have really good breaking balls, but Bloss is supposedly 93 to 96 with great carry. So if he does have good IVB, he does have good shape on that fastball, then he could be probably probably Aragetty pretty quickly. Other prospect related news, more from the stashing horizon and redraft purposes because Jordan Lawler is rostered in every keeper in Dynasty League imaginable. Four to six weeks with a hamstring strain is the timetable for Jordan Lawler. Just another setback for him physically. I believe he was playing a little bit of third base in between I.L. Stents. So they're trying to figure out a way to get him into the mix. I wonder if we're going to see the Jordan Lawler timeline line up with what the Diamondbacks did with Corbin Carroll. When Carroll debuted a couple of years back, if it's like a late August sort of promotion, and Lawler gets that window to really establish himself at the end of this season and possibly go into 2025 as a fixture in that lineup. Help permitting. Yeah, they're obviously itching to do something different at third base. You know, they're putting delays Alexander there against lefties. So they're already doing a platoon there. Suarez is just, could be near the end. And so, you know, that would be the, you know, he's 32 and he is projected to bounce back from a 75 WRC plus. But those projections at 32 start to become less reliable. His bat speed is down as evidence by his max CV. His barrel rate is half of what it has been in the past. And his hard hit rate is the lowest it's been since 2017. I don't know how much me as a fancy player I'm waiting around for it. And then to see that the team is already like, you know, doing things with Blaze Alexander and taking time away from him suggests. And then Lawler's taking. So I think, you know, I don't know who's going to win it. But I think somebody other than Suarez is going to be the second half there's basement. Yeah, I think Suarez has about as much time as Lawler's hurt to try and claw his way back. But those underlying power drop offs there are very concerning. That was his carrying tool recently was being able to just barrel up the ball to 12, 13, 14% rate and get to that power. And that just has not been the case for Suarez so far this year. Hurston Waldrip hit the aisle on Monday had another rough start against the Rays on Sunday. And it sounds like he'll be opting to triple A once he's healthy. Good news. Just inflammation for now. Nothing structurally showing up for Waldrip. But it has not gone the way I had hoped for Waldrip in these first couple big league starts. He's a near identical statistical match in terms of pitch movements to keep and win. So I would treat him as I do keep and win, which is, you know, I'm excited, somewhat excited to pick him up for good matchups. I would like to have him today. I think you might pitch well today. What I have learned actually about Rickwood is that it's very large. And it's actually a pitcher's park. One thing that is weird about it, though, if you've seen the pictures, like the seats behind home plate, some of them are pointing down the lines. Oh, they're angled the seats are angled. Yeah, it's like like this. There's very, the very little home plate where you're sitting like straight to the home plate. There's a lot of this diagonally sort of sitting behind. So that was a little bit jarring for me to see that. But that has nothing to do with anything. Keaton, when herson Waldrip put them in the same part of your brain and treat them similarly, which is to say, you know, nice when you got him. And probably time to go ahead and give Spencer Schwellenbach that little love before. Yes. Give him the love. He has a good fastball, good slider. He has other pitches. He's learning how to mix in. I like Spencer Schwellenbach. I picked him up in my 12 team or even 7ks. Just one earned run, six innings last time out on Tuesday against the Tigers. So hopefully Schwellenbach can take the opportunity and run with it in the Atlanta rotation. Dylan Cruz got bumped up to triple A earlier this week. Did a lot better this time around at double A. He finished that level last year, which is 20 games didn't go particularly well. Some people were a little impatient because they thought Dylan Cruz right out of LSU was just going to be almost ready to go in the big leagues. Already at triple A though, less than a year after being drafted, things are still going pretty well overall. We've seen some power. We've seen a lot more speed. Interesting though, he's now teammates with James Wood at Rochester. They're playing Cruz in center field James Wood playing in left. So looks like that's the arrangement for now. I don't think it's all good news because, you know, a 121 WRC plus from a 22 year old double A. I don't think you would just that very much. And it's not sort of outstanding. It's just like sort of above average. And then the thing that really bothers me is he had a 27% pull rate this year and double A Dylan Cruz did. Like a 27% pull rate is that is, I mean, but nobody's doing that in the big leagues. At least nobody with power. Let me let me find the smallest pull rate this year. Yandy Diaz. I mean, is he going to be a Yandy Diaz, Bryce Turang, Bobis yet, Brendan Rogers to Leo de Taveras, Blake Perkins, Luis Garcia, Jr. Am I, am I talking about power hitters here? I don't think he's like those players, but my reasoning is trusting what other people have observed about him. And he has a lot of power. Yeah. I wonder if there's something about Harris Berg. Even James Wood last year, there was plenty of power from James Wood, 18 homers and 87 games younger for the level. But the offensive performance was down compared to expectations, even though it was a big bump up age to level for wood. And of course, we've seen what he's done at triple A this year. So I just want to see what happens at triple A. Give me 40 or 50 games at triple A from Dylan Cruz. And if something looks off there, maybe then I'll start to dial back expectations a little bit. He's definitely playing with that contact point with the pole versus push. I mean, in double A in 2023, he had a 54% pull rate. And of course, he had a terrible, terrible time. But it may not be it's not in stone, you know, 27% pull rate is not in stone. That's not necessarily who he is. But he was an all fields guy with Oppo power in college. So, it's just something that bothers me a little bit. When you're very Oppo, you're just sapping your power to some extent. And that's why I'm like everybody else. This is a super hot take. I like James Wood better than Dylan Cruz. Yeah, but I think you can like James Wood better than Dylan Cruz and still like Dylan Cruz too. Like it's possible. It's just weird to like, okay, so he comes out of college and everyone says he's got 60 power and 60, you know, I at the plate. And you know, this year he hits five home runs at double A with a 7.6% walk rate and a 27% pull rate. And I'm kind of like, why isn't it showing up? I understand. I understand where the concerns come from, but just floated out there. There might be something else going on in Harrisburg. This episode is brought to you by Experian. Are you paying for subscriptions you don't use but can't find the timer energy to cancel them? Experian could cancel unwanted subscriptions for you, saving you an average of $270 per year and plenty of time. Download the Experian app. Results will vary. Not all subscriptions are eligible. Savings are not guaranteed. Paid membership with connected payment account required. Some promotion news here. Aurelvis Martinez is up for the Blue Jays hasn't played yet, but up since Tuesday hit 16 homers in 63 games of Buffalo. It's just 22 years old. Feels like he's been around forever because he was on the radar as a big international signing. He's four or five years ago now, but he's shortstop eligible more likely to fit in at second base in the long run. I'm thinking because they're not really playing him in the middle of the week that he's more of a up and down guy in the short term, even though longer term, there could be an opportunity there. They're playing Barger. They're playing Spencer Horowitz. It seems like Aurelvis Martinez may have to wait just a little bit longer to get that opportunity with the Jays. Yeah, that's three starts, four games. No, Barger hasn't played it short yet. Yeah, Barger's playing third and right. Who's playing short? Bo was hurt. And then they're probably playing Kiner Philefa at short right now, right? That's it. Yeah, they're definitely playing Kiner Philefa at short because the SS was tacked on to his last name because his last name's a little bit long and people were making jokes about that. Here we go. Yes. IKF has played five straight games of short stuff. So he seems to be the option. I mean, I guess the idea for the Blue Jays is that they are scratching and clawing and, you know, they're not necessarily in the turn it over to the kids portion of the schedule yet. No, but I do like they're giving Barger and Horowitz the chance that we talked about before instead of running the same veterans up and down in the lineup the way they had been for a little while, at least they a mild shakeup trying to find something that works. Here's one that might be of interest in some deeper leagues. If you noticed Sebastian Walcott, one of the top prospects in the Rangers organization, was not doing a ton to begin the season. There's some context here. He's very young. He's 18. He was assigned a high A, which is a very aggressive promotion. Things have been much better for him in June. You could still look at that overall slash line and say, Oh, why are we excited about a guy that's hitting 234 the 342 380 high A right now? It's because he's 18 and he's getting better month by month. Kenny Landry from MLB.com. I had a quote from Ross Fenstermaker. You might remember that name because Ross was kind enough to join us during the winter meetings on the show and Ross said that Walcott has the mental capacity and ability to acclimate to the level and grow and progress. He's done exactly that every month has been better than the last and they've been playing him a little bit third base too. So playing both spots on the left side of the infield. So Walcott's one of those players that if you're in a rebuilding situation to keep your league and you want to take a chance on someone that could just take off and vault up prospect list. If it all clips, he meets that kind of description. Yeah, he's an interesting guy. Where was he drafted? Why not? Why don't I Walcott? Yeah. The new fangirls player pages don't have the draft where he was drafted at the top. International free agent signing it would have been I think before 2023 because he was playing in the Dominican Summer League that year. So it would have probably been the winter before that. Yeah, the K issues, that's why I'd probably be watching the most. Even the scouting report says the power's there. The defense is there. It's all about it. Can you make contact? Getting that swing strike right down to 12%, that's manageable. It was higher than that before. I was tooling around on some of the pages, looking for fun guys at different levels. One thing was that Roman Anthony is just jumping up the boards in AA. He has come to, as a 20 year old, he's 45% better than League average in AA. So the last update we have is the 15 overall ranking from fan graphs. You've heard about Roman Anthony here for a while. So I was kind of trying to find the next Roman Anthony and I've forgotten his name. I told you it earlier. You've had him and you've read Josue DiPaula. Oh, Josue DiPaula, but the time is up on that one too. You're going to run out of time on DiPaula too. One thing that we got in the news was that it was 114 exit below. That's something that Longen Hagen was reporting, max exit below. And I looked at the major leaguers that have hit the ball 114 or more this year. And the worst one was Jorge Solaire. DiPaula has speed though too. He's not necessarily a Solaire player, but if he turned out to be like a Solaire with speed, you have to remember how many good seasons Solaire had for fantasy. That would be a pretty good outcome. So I think DiPaula's already almost not a great pick for the next Roman Anthony because I think Keith Law had him 11th. So then I was trying to go further down. And didn't I have one more name for you? Let's see. You threw at me. You didn't say Fel Nien Celestein, but he's in the Mariners organization. He's a big riser at the lower levels. I'm forgetting the name too. I think that he's now in AA and he's raking still. I think he's going to jump up on the list. And I did mention Carson Williams has cut some of the strikeouts. So those are Carson Williams is a shortstop in the race organization. And I think that Caballero and Walls is probably where they'll go the rest of the season. They've been fine. They're good enough, close enough to the average. But I don't think that Caballero has hit a second level. So I think shortstop is still an area of concern for them organizationally going forward. Like they would like to find a better player probably than someone they just sort of picked up and put in there that can be close to the average. And Carson Williams might still be that guy. Carson Williams has more of a star ceiling. I think you could imagine a scenario in the not so distant future where a combination of Carson Williams, Jr. Camanero are holding down the spots on the left side of that infield in Tampa Bay. And that would change a lot about that race lineup very quickly once those guys are are up. But I think Caballero to me just looks like a nice bench player. Just the guy you'd have as a capable option between mostly second and short. It's fine. It's got speed. Carrey's a little high this year too. I wonder if that's part of just having that that larger role and not necessarily being spot started as effectively as he was a year ago in Seattle. Like if that's part of the downside of playing him more is that you're going to get more swing and miss. Also just don't know like you know the the the Rays weren't playing him at short despite you know JP Crawford's numbers not being great at short defensively. So I just I wonder if he was if it's like they think he's internally the best defensive option at short. I mean why is Taylor walls coming on and taking time away from him. It's not necessarily from an offensive standpoint. No, I don't think so either. But I actually thought walls at one point had more ceiling than he's shown so far at least in the power department for sure. Yeah, I guess maybe a slightly higher OBP we've seen consistent ability to draw walks even though it's it's about it. Yeah, it's mostly that that that that buoys that buoys things quite a bit for him. If you could hit a little more on top of drawing those walks then we might have a passable regular at short but I think versatility with the glove is a big part of why Taylor walls continues to hang around when healthy is a part of that that Ray is playing time mix. Let's move over to the weekend waiver preview which will still have a few more prospecty names in it but how about Daniel Schneeman another surprise in Cleveland as I sort of hinted at earlier a guy that was not on the radar at all for me and has started five consecutive games throughout this week. I'm gonna go back to the weekend he's playing all over the place. Schneeman has played just in the last five days he's made starts in center field third base and shortstop and prior to that has made starts for the guardians in right field and second base. So very versatile is hitting the ball harder than he did last year and we're using fan graphs hard hit rate just look at the difference between his numbers at Columbus a year ago versus numbers now. He's already 27 years old so from the is he a prospect since the answers kind of well no he's been in the organization since 2018 and this is his first opportunity but there's power there's speed there's decent contact rates there seems to be a pretty good handle on the zone. I almost wonder is Daniel Schneeman this year's Davis Schneider? Schneeman Schneider. Same initials. I don't know I just the age to level stuff is like okay not a prospect but good enough to play and versatile enough to find his way into the lineup. They're different in that you know Schneider is trying to pull everything in the air and everything. Schneeman's more of a balanced hitter which I like I guess that's that's sort of the guardians way is is an emphasis on contact. He has a 110.6 max EV in Triple A. Schneeman does with a 49 percent hard hit like it's so hard with these Cleveland guys man. The answer for me this is the same on almost every Cleveland guy that's not named Josh Naylor or David Fry I guess is I don't know how much power they have. I just love that David Fry has already elevated himself to that level. I mean he just he just like he has better battle ball stats than everybody else. I mean this this is the team with mediocre battle ball stats that still somehow is hitting home versus here. It's a great mystery and I'm coming around to just not questioning it. I want to understand how it's happening but I'm not doubting it. Bullring. Yeah and I think what we're going to see especially this weekend is 15 team leagues are where Schneeman is going to get scooped up right. He's already rostered in 26 percent of main event leagues. The number is going to go up. He's going to add position eligibility in a few spots the next couple of weeks so they keep playing him and moving him around as much as they do. That always carries value and because the underlying metrics are actually pretty solid you can tell yourself a story that hey you know he's stolen bases at Triple A before he was 17 for 20 last year so he could run a little bit. He unlocked some more power this year so maybe he'll actually be a nice balanced player for us that is decent in all five categories. Those players are actually pretty hard to come by and because of his OBP skills maybe he actually has a prominent spot in the better than expected Cleveland lineup. You could just you could tell yourself a whole bunch of stories that this could actually work out. To me the big story here is that it's possible that Tyler Freeman is a drop. I still like the combination of swing strike rate, K-ray, barrel rate like I think it should be it should be better than it is and you know my biases align with the Bat X and the Bat X likes Tyler Freeman the best out of every all of them and says he can be a 271 hitter with a 330 OBP 407 slugging. That kind of guy that would put up you know 13 14 homers and and 18 homers and 18 stolen bases over the course of a full season but you have Freeman and then you look at the game's log for Tyler Freeman and you realize it's missing games. Tyler Freeman is not starting every day and if Tyler Freeman is not starting every day again sometimes the team in their usage is going to tell you more about how good a player is or how invested you should be in them. And so the fact that the the Guardians are playing Schneeman so much five straight starts and not playing Freeman tells me also that Freeman may be a drop. That's a good breakdown to where things stand. They're both versatile enough where if they're both hitting there's a world in which they both play but that's been the adjustment so far a little less time for Freeman has been part of how they fit Daniel Schneeman into the mix. Other bats to consider I'll leave this one a little bit open I'm sure people want us to talk a little more about Ben Rice who's getting the first crack at filling him filling in for Anthony Rizzo and you know part of the appeal is that Ben Rice has catcher eligibility in a lot of leagues so you're getting someone that could be a second catcher who's playing more than a second catcher typically does and somebody who's interesting by profile but also could actually be in a elite lineup for the time that he's playing so you you get that extra bump like I think the hard thing this time of year is to say what separates these guys that all have very similar you know modest projections but they seem to project enough to play at least in the 15 team league possibly in a 12 team league it's supporting cast I think that can be the difference between a 12 team player and a 15 team player when skills might be otherwise equal yeah and also like you know what kind of a park we're uploading them into you know it's like if Ben Rice was you know called up to start for the Marlins at first base I might be a little bit less excited about him so he's supporting cast and then if you can get it just like I've been harping on this episode is is you know how often they play him but it looks like he's just gonna slot in for Rizzo. Two for two so far at least we'll keep an eye on that leading of the weekend but yeah Ben Rice getting picked up and first come first serve leagues for good reasons I mean we talked about him I think when the Rizzo injury happened like the production in the minors was very interesting he's kind of putting up some nice like power speed numbers between double A the very brief time he was a triple A getting on base doing all the things you got to do to possibly win a job at least temporarily even on a good team Tyler Black is back for the Brewers I don't know if you should do anything with him I think you got to see they have a four game series in San Diego starting Thursday watch the lineup for the next few days see if they make a change Jake Bowers still looks like the same guy he was last year Jake Bowers looks like the same guy he was last time we talked about him last time we talked about him we said how could you possibly make this decision powers got hot for a couple of weeks then cooled right back off it's a 93 WRC plus it's a 33 k right seems like what you see is what you get yeah there's power there's speed there's swing and miss if the Brewers think they can do better with Tyler Black then they'll play them more and I think we'll get just a little hint of that in this series against the Padres so if they play them four straight games I'm in on Sunday if they play them twice I'm probably out if they play them three times I'm just gonna spin around a few times before I run fab hit a random number and run away from the computer yes uh that'll be my bid uh that describes my process sometimes I in the fab on the donkey I was coming so I was uh combing around trying to do some prefab work myself and just circle the name auto Lopez in Miami this is definitely a 15 team versus a 12 team situation uh because you know he doesn't have a history of power uh of great power and he's his battle ball stats aren't that great but he did hit a ball 110.7 last year in Triple A so there may be a little bit more oomph in there this 108 eight this year for auto Lopez in terms of max but both of those numbers are non-zero so I'm thinking he can have you know at least like 120 iso Lopez and and he runs and he plays so that can be just enough for streaming purposes and maybe we're playing bets at shortstop or or second base and so auto Lopez is kind of I would say a sort of an emergency replacement that could give you a little bit of power and a little bit of speed I don't think the schedule lines up amazingly this week but he could be one of those midweek replacements where you know if you're looking sometimes you look at full week projections for a player and you forget that you can actually change players hitters in NFC formats midweek um and so sometimes it's irrelevant when he's going to do the whole week if you just want to put him in for next weekend you know so I think that this type of player is useful to have on your roster in head-to-head leagues you just put him into maybe like snatch a steal you know like for extra out bats when the other team's not playing so he's a kind of a near replacement but interesting versatility player you can have in your roster. I think that's a good way to look at Lopez similar to Shneemann in some ways in terms of expectations a little different in terms of immediate eligibility where you can play them but lots of opportunity I think he started eight of the last nine games for the Marlins really has pushed Fidel Bruhan to the side on the pitching side I saw Tobias Myers as the most added player on CBS again first come first serve are they doing it again are the Brewers getting away with this I think it was Matt Thompson in our discord or on Twitter at one point like a month even six weeks ago before this recent stretch where Tobias Myers has pitched well he just put it out there he's like the Brewers are gonna get away with it again with Tobias Myers aren't they and they've been getting away with it yet again with Tobias Myers a 326 ERA 113 whip 42 Ks and 47 innings for a guy that's bounced around through a lot of organizations at one point Orioles Rays White Sox Guardians Giants it's its sixth organization but the first given him a chance in the big leagues yeah I think it's what's wild is that he doesn't have a single pitch that rates above a 94 my stuff plus this is so good I'm like and I'm not rooting against you I'm I'd like chaos especially when chaos works in my favor yeah what I would say is that in that a 94 WRC plus 94 stuff plus on the four seem or 93 is actually pretty close to league average it's only a couple ticks on there and maybe for starters maybe like right around league average and that might explain why he throws at 41% of the time it's a 92.6 mile an hour fastball for Tobias Myers but it obviously has good shape and so I don't know and then beyond that he has a pretty equal mix of four other pitches so there's a little bit of the kitchen sink approach here and then kitchen sink with good command I guess no one this is a load him situation load him his model spelled backwards incorrectly in that no there's no number that says he's good perfect it's exactly what I want and came here's the other is not good Sierra's not good FIP's not good here's my other tidbit for everybody like the thing that continues to help a team like Milwaukee get more mileage out of pitchers like Tobias Myers like Colin Ray like Wade Miley when he was healthy it is their defense look at the rolling one-year leaderboard for Babip allowed right there's second behind the Dodgers the Brewers defense turns more balls into outs it's not an accident and I think there's even it's not just the defense necessarily some of it could be the game calling or the pitch mixes or the pitch shapes sequencing there's something I don't think this is an accident I don't think this is completely flooky I don't think this is a thing that you can look at and say add that can't continue because you look at multi your trends on this and you do see a lot of the same teams doing really well in that particular area so if you're going to be anti-model I think you can more selectively pick spots where it's a good idea to try it because there's a few things working in your favor that might not be there for other organizations flip side the Rockies not surprisingly 323 Babip last year that's the park right it's not just them but the giants we've talked about the limitations of that team defensively and the dimensions of their home ball park how that would create more on balls and play in the Nationals the Cardinals the A's the white socks the ball at the bottom and they're not a progressive data organization necessarily and the Brewers are a team to have four or five center fielders and the roster it feels like all the time the only out feeler they have it's not really a center fielder most the time is Christian Yellich everybody else they could put in center field outfield shifts were more effective than infield shifts in taking hits away and over the over the history the recent history and so you know they could be outfield shifting more aggressively than some teams or or more precisely than other teams with center fielders and Tobias Myers 43% fly ball rate always been a fly ball pitcher might just play into his strengths as well i'm just turning into something i never thought i'd be someone who's into Tobias Myers and Andrew Abbott and like fine you get all the outliers pitchers fine i'm just gonna keep i will use the outliers until they burn me and i'm sure someday it'll burn me but until a lot of people care i'm in the other guy that i thought was kind of interesting that he landed knack just because Walker Bueller went on the iL with some hip discomfort apparently the hip was bothering him then he got hit by a comebacker in the hip on Tuesday which is just that's just lovely yeah i think right like this is already bothering me and now i got hit so that's gonna make it worse but Bueller was also struggling his first stretch back you know from the second tommy john a 584 ERA 151 whip you wrote about land and neck i think it was maybe last week now just as someone that did some interesting things while he was up stands out a bit in the model and just based on need could get the opportunity maybe this Bueller injury opens that door back up for neck yeah it's a really strong fastball slider combination even though it's a only 928 on the fastball it rates highly and so it's it's good movement profile it's a good two-pitch foundation and then what he's doing more in the major leagues is throwing the curve and change up more and making himself into a true four-pitch pitcher that means his range is from 79 on the curveball to 93 on the fastball and so i think he's just kind of dancing around different v-low ranges with pretty good demonstrated command i don't know that he'll have great great strikeout rates because in the minors he kind of flipped around from like 26 even had a 20 percent of triple a in 2023 a landed neck did but i i generally just think he's probably a good matchups pitcher and somebody i want to round yep and the team context certainly helps i mean there's no no shame in taking the chance that anybody the Dodgers are leaning on we'll see if they end up bringing him back in yeah the win probability is there usage ends up being right i think it's it's a part of the Tobias Myers Colin Ray thing too is that they're not going to overexpose guys they if the situation is right if they're pitching well sure they can pitch deep into a game if it's not they go to the bullpen they just they don't let those guys stay out there and just wear it because they they'd like their four-fit six reliever enough to go ahead and make those changes so that's the state of things the early weekend waiver preview hopefully some of those names help you i really want to see Jake blossom i just want to see what the stuff really looks like against big league pitchers we'll get a chance we'll get a hitters we'll get a chance to see that you know yeah on friday night we are on our way out the door excited for rickwood today too real excited for rickwood it's kind of a standalone game there's a one-way game brewers podrades it starts kind of at the end of that but it's got its own nice window really looking forward to watching that game seeing that ballpark and taking in a bit of history from afar as we watch that game between the Cardinals and Giants on Thursday night be sure to get a subscription to the athletic the athletic dot com slash rates and barrels lots of good stuff to read there you can find a big piece of Jason stark tomorrow it's tomorrow yep awesome be sure to check that out as well as the great coverage of willy mazes life a lot of great tributes on the site and everywhere else too i've seen amazing stuff all over the place in the last day or so you can find you know on twitter you know serus find me at derrick and ryper find the pod at rates and barrels we're back with you on friday live one o'clock eastern on our youtube channel with trevor may thanks for listening
