The Atlanta Man
132 | The Braves STINK.
(upbeat music) Hello and welcome to episode 132 of the Atlanta Man Podcast. I'm your host, Ryan Rogers, and the Braves are so bad right now. And that is going to be the focal point of this episode the 2024 Atlanta Braves and the absolute hellscape of the season that they have had and continue to have. And we're just going to really just talk about the recent developments of this miserable experience that is the 2024 Atlanta Braves. Yesterday in Colorado, they led eight to two in the eighth inning, had a chance to win the series, get a little momentum, some good vibes to start off the West Coast trip. And they give up seven runs in the eighth inning and eventually lose nine to eight to the Colorado Rockies who are one of the worst teams in baseball, they are the worst team in the National League. They have a worst run differential. Then the Chicago White Sox who just got off of a 21 game losing streak. So the Rockies are very, very bad. I know it's Coors Field, but even for Coors standards, that was ridiculous. And the Braves absolutely bungled a, you know, 99% chance of winning is what the Statcast, the Statcast win probability was 99%. I think it was even higher than 99%, like 99 1/2 and they lost that game. So yeah, the Braves have just been really rough lately, heading into Saturday. They had lost six games in a row for the second time this year, for the second time and about a month span, the Braves have lost six games in a row. And they hadn't done that since 2018, I believe. Just ridiculous stuff. They have been very, very bad since the all-star break. Like I said, two six-game losing streaks mixed in there. You know, there was one four-game winning streak where they were one six out of seven. So they have been streaky to say the least, but yeah, since the all-star break, the Braves have their eight and 14. Eight and 14 since the all-star break and the most hilarious thing about that is, the birds have been that bad since the all-star game. They have gained one game on the Phillies in the NL East, which does not seem real, but the Phillies have been just as bad and they've actually been worse. They've been worse by a game. So that's very funny to think about. It's also kind of very maddening to think about that the Braves could have really, really made some headway and getting back into this race, but instead they have just been pretty much just as bad and have made up not much ground at all. You know, if you'd have told me on what's today's date, on August 12th, the Braves would have gained one game on the Phillies. I would probably say, okay, that makes sense. You know, I thought they would have been kind of equally good, but no, they've been equally as miserable and bad. So that does kind of leave the door. It's still slightly creaked open, the winds of division. I know it's crazy to say after the week they just had, after they got their brains beaten in by the Brewers, they absolutely let the Rocky series slip away. Even before that, they lost the last two games to the Marlins, who are just atrocious too. So, I mean, losing to the Rockies and Marlins like that, two bad teams, the Brewers are pretty good, but still like it was like a historic offensive series for Milwaukee, like they had said, they're like the first team ever to have this amount of home runs, and this amount of runs, and this amount of steals, and this amount of yada, yada, every offensive statin, like MLB history, they went absolutely crazy on the Braves. And yeah, it's weird to say after the week that they just had, but the division isn't over. And it's, you know, I might sound crazy. And this episode is really honing in on how the Braves have been really bad, but I guess this will be the one positive glimmer of the podcast that I'll say this. They're seven and a half games back. They have seven games left against the Phillies, and they are pretty much on track to get the tiebreaker. They lead the season series four to two against Philadelphia, so they need to win three of the last seven to get the tiebreaker. They need to win more than that if they want to pull this off, but just assuming the Braves have the tiebreaker, it's really a six and a half game deficit. And it's August 12th. So I'm not projecting the Braves from the division. I'm just saying it's not over. And I'm just pointing that out as kind of a comic relief of how, you know, if the Braves start playing better, they could win the division still. And that is asinine, and if that happens, you know, it will be hilarious and obviously very enjoyable, but I wouldn't bank on it, you know, just to cap things off with the division talk. So the Braves are seven and a half games out. They currently have a 9.3% chance to win the division, according to fan graphs. And I think I agree with that. And I guess me being even more optimistic, I'll probably say it's a little higher, maybe like closer to 15%, but, you know, I don't think that's a ridiculous projection at all. But yeah, just the rest of the odds for the Braves, you know, despite the Braves falling out of play of contention late last week with the Mets catching them, they're currently half came up on New York. So they are in the playoffs currently as the last wildcard and fan graphs gives them a 62.1% chance to make the playoffs versus the Mets 27.9. So I think they just have a lot more faith in the Braves than they do the Mets because the Braves still have a better roster. And, you know, just the way things have just worked out, it doesn't seem like that sometimes, but they do, the Braves are still the more talented team despite all the injuries, but, you know, it's tough, man. I mean, they're getting healthier. Michael Harris could be back as early as Wednesday. That's going to help a ton 'cause the outfield has still been, the outfield, you know, Kalenik has still been pretty rough. Duvall, you know, not very good. Eddie Rosario got DFA'd earlier this week. Jorge Solaire, we can speak on Jorge Solaire. He has absolutely turned it up in this, let me pull up his numbers from this series in Colorado. I'm sure his numbers with the Braves now are probably ridiculous 'cause he went apeshit in Coorsfield. As did a lot of people this weekend, but Solaire was the main one. But yeah, here's Solaire's numbers with the Braves. And this is with a rough start mind. You know, the first five or six games, Jorge had like one hit. And these are his numbers through 10 games with the Braves. It's only 43 played appearances, which is a small sample, but he is slashing 297, 395 with a 649 slug that is good for a 1.0440 PS. That is a 184 OPS plus that is ridiculous is where he has to learn that good. Probably not. He might can do that for the second half of a season, but, you know, I mean, he has been that good before for the Braves and he's doing that now. And, you know, when he got traded over, he was on a really good stretch with the Giants. Maybe a little bit of an adjustment period coming back to Atlanta, but he has locked in. He's getting on base a ton. He's walking and it is just so refreshing to see that at the lead-off spot because ever since Ronald went down, there's just been no OBP skills to even speak of out of the lead-off spot. It's been, you know, Kellnick and Michael Harris for a second before he got hurt. So I think even Adam Duvall led off a game this year, which is just so ridiculous. But, yeah, Solera has been great. You know, the defense has been honestly horrendous, but if you hit like this, it's fine. It really is 'cause they need this more than they need good defense with the way some of the bats have been lately. But, you know, they are starting to heat up a little bit. It is cool, as again, you got that big asterisk next. We've been, Matt Olson had a great series. He's been really good for a couple of weeks now. Ryan Lee continues to be good. Like, they're actually kind of hitting now, which is encouraging, but it's also so frustrating with how bad the pitching was this week. The starters were bad, more in bad. Bryce Hutter got a start. He was bad. Max Fried wasn't great. And that was actually the one game they won was the Max Fried start. Chris Sale had a really unlucky start against Milwaukee. He struck out 10 over 4.2 with the birds, but he gave up nine hits. None of them were home runs. He was just getting a bad bit to death. And, you know, correct to the birds, everybody was super pesky, but that's Sale start was super unfortunate because he looked like not his best self, but he was still missing a ton of bats. Like he had 10 strikeouts in 4.2 innings, but he had to throw 96 pitches over that time span. And yeah, that was another just unfortunate one for him. And the brace was just gotten really unlucky too in the second half and kind of the season the whole, you know, the injury luck has been ridiculously bad, obviously, that goes without saying. And, but just the on-field luck has been tough too. Like when the Braves were having their heinous offensive stretch earlier in the season, they still had, you know, the highest average exit velocity in baseball, you know? And they were, and they said, not made a result to show for it now. There's, I think the results are starting to even themselves out and it's starting to actually result in results instead of just hard hit outs. But now the pitching is kind of getting it too. Some guys have just been straight up bad, like Morton and, you know, elders not really part of the rotation, but he was bad and freed has been rough in his two starts since returning from the I.O. But you can kind of give him a pass for working his way back when you probably should have went on a rehab assignment. But the bullpen has been getting bad bit to death. I know the batting average on balls in play since the all-star break for the bullpen is like over 400, which is not sustainable, that will go down. And yeah, 'cause there's been some bad ones. I mean, nothing says it more than Sunday against the Rockies. I mean, you know, Luke Jackson was bad, but some of the balls were just regular base hits. He wasn't getting necessarily smoked, not necessarily soft contact either, but even when Joe Jimenez came in, like it wasn't like they were just getting mashed off of. And I think that'll probably start to even out 'cause it has to. There's no way, no way at all that is going to sustain the course of the rest of the season. And the pitching staff, I still believe in a lot, even though there are some injuries, but they're gonna get healthier. Renato Lopez should be coming back in the next few days. Agent Mentor did go in the out of the day to bring up Dylan Lee, which it's hilarious. That Dylan Lee was pitching in AAA yesterday while Luke Jackson was shitting himself in the big leagues. But Luke Jackson has survived. He is still with the team. And I don't know how serious this AJ thing is. It's a hip thing, which he's had a couple times, but I don't know if it's more of just giving him a breather or if it's legit or whatever it is, but there you go. He's gonna be out for at least 15 days. So yeah, it has been a crazy, crazy season for this team. But here they are. They're 61 and 56. They are still protected to be in the playoffs and just looking at this team and all the guys they've tried in the outfield and some of the pitchers that they've brought up, it's just and all the injuries, it's ridiculous. It's been a ridiculous season. And just looking at some of the stats or some of the guys, it's hilarious. I mean, like Marcello Zuna is a legit triple crown candidate and Matt Olson is a 103 OPS plus. Even though he has been better as of late, he has still been very underwhelming. RC has been really hot. That's been another part of the offense being better. RC has been hot. There are no in Murphy. I've been really good since the break. So the catching situation has been pretty good. And yeah, it is a funny team. They are a funny, funny team. It seems like yesterday might've been rock bottom, but a few weeks before that, when they lost to the Mets with the Ramon L'Oriano game, that seemed like rock bottom. There's been a few rock bottoms this year. So maybe this will be the last one and they can finally start playing well, because I mean, I'm really not this big of an optimist with the Braves and stuff like this. And especially with how things have been going lately, they can win the division. And, you know, it's definitely within the range. They have enough games with the Phillies. And if they can just coordinate the offense and the pitching being good at the same time, they're going to win a lot of games. 'Cause the offensive has been really good lately, but the pitching has just been horrendous. And before that, the pitching was awesome. And the offense was horrendous. So it's just like, yeah, you gotta, if they can just line up for these last month and a half or whatever, they can win the division. And, you know, maybe yesterday will like the fire under them. We will see. I'm not saying, I don't think the Braves are gonna win the division. If I had to bet on it, I would bet the Phillies. Like the Braves are still very big underdogs. I'm just saying it is possible. But, you know, right now, even, that is something you gotta push off or down the road. If it happens, it happens. They gotta make sure that they get into the playoffs. 'Cause right now they are just a half game up on the Mets. And they gotta play the Giants right now, who are, let me look at these wild card standings. The Giants are a game and a half behind the Braves for the last spot. And the Giants have been playing very well. So four games with the Giants is pretty big. Then this weekend, they get to go play a bad Angels team, which, you know, the Braves, the race of them played that well against bad teams lately. So we're gonna have to see about that. But, you know, the Angels are one of the worst teams in the AO. But, yeah, they gotta start winning games. They kind of fend off the Mets. They still have a more serious against New York also. And, yeah, I mean, this has been more of a therapy session, but they have just been, they've just been so hilariously bad lately, which, you know, they're not this bad. But the question is how good can they be? And, hair is coming back. We're not coming back. Hopefully, Aussie coming back. All that will help, for sure. And, hair is amazing and tripling his rehab assignment. So we will see if he joins the team in the San Francisco series, or if they wait till they go to LA or whatever it is. But, yeah, yeah, they're still a mess. But, they got a chance. They have a chance. And, I still think they're gonna make the playoffs. But, you know, I am surprisingly optimistic today, even with how that game was yesterday, 'cause it was just such a disaster. But, I just think the offense is waking up a little bit, and getting guys like Olsen going, and Solaire going, and getting healthier with Harris, I think, is going to help a lot. And, that's what we need to talk about. So, Richard Schwellenbach pitched yesterday. Yesterday, he was awesome again. Six innings pitch, two run to run, seven Ks. He's just been pretty ridiculous lately. You know, he's been eating innings. Seems like he's going at least six innings every start. Numbers in the year look pretty good. 3.95 ERA, which, that's a bit inflated from a bit of a rock he's already had to his career. But, it's a 3.33 FIP, 9.8 Ks per nine, you know, 70 innings pitch, like, Schwellenbach's going to get rookie of the year votes. Rookie of the year votes can really speak right there. But, shout out to Spencer Schwellenbach. He, you know, the season ended today, and the Braves are in the wild card. He's the game three starter. You know, even, like, you can say Reynaldo, well, just see what it's like when he gets back. We have to see how hard this regression's going to hit, 'cause we haven't really had a chance to see it yet, because he's been hurt in the second half. So, we're going to see, like, right now, Reynaldo as it stands as a 206 ERA, over 104.2 innings. Like, he's not that good. We'll see where it lies, if it's good enough for him to still be a starter, versus if it's, you know, kind of moving to the pen maybe, which I think Reynaldo, as long as he's healthy, he's going to be pitching beginnings for this team in the postseason, if they're there, which I think they will be. So, yeah, I think, I think that's it. It's been a lot of rambling. Maybe it sounded a little far faster than the things I said about the division, but I do kind of think that, like, I am surprisingly optimistic, and I am kind of excited for these Phillies games, and, yeah, like, let's just, I guess just have fun, man. Have a nice month and a half left, and, you know, make some noise, guys. Like, that's what I want. That's what I'll be rooting for, you know. They, you know, they could do that. They could have a nice month and a half, and make something special happen. But this brave team could miss the playoffs also, if they could completely fall apart and keep playing like they have been. So, yeah, there are a variety of outcomes that could happen, and we're just going to have to see how it plays out, man, see how it plays out. So, yeah, I think that's it. If you made it this far listening, I really appreciate it, and I will see you in the next one. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) [BLANK_AUDIO]