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Inside Access with Jason LaCanfora and Ken Weinman

Ariel Epstein: The public is all over the Ravens under 11.5 wins

Fanatics Sportsbook sports betting analyst Ariel Epstein joined the show to discuss her best bets for the night. She also talked about the tight AL East race and what people are taking for futures bets with the Ravens.

Duration:
9m
Broadcast on:
09 Aug 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

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The O's, Grayson Rodriguez goes down. The Red Sox, I don't trust anybody. Plus they're half the rotations pretty young and Boston. Um, but I didn't get American leaves just wide open for the taking in general. You've got a much stronger AL West. You have a stronger AL central, the AL East. I mean, listen, if I'm like more nervous for anyone, it's the AL central right now. Well, Ariel, let's get to your best bets. The Braves and Rockies first pitch at 842 teams really struggling coming in. But one of your best bets includes Tanner Gordon, the Rockies. Starting pitching. I love this play tonight for the Rockies. Righty Tanner Gordon to go over three and a half strikeout. So Gordon hasn't faced a high carry team yet this year. Atlanta is a high carry team, but even in the games that Gordon faced these other lower carry teams, he's had at least four strikeouts in three of four starts. Gordon throws strikes and that's what thing you got to love about him. His chase rate, it would be third and major league baseball. That's just over 35% if he qualifies course, he's only at four starts. Gordon was also drafted by the Braves in 2019. He was treated to Colorado from Atlanta last July. So there's a little bit of a revenge side here like, hey, this is what you lost after you drafted me. But the Braves are averaging this over five strikeout the game against righty starters and since the all star break that's in two games. The Braves are now averaging this over six strikeouts a game against righty starters with Gordon being a strikeout type pitcher. You got to go here with the over three and a half days. Yeah, provos are struggling. The Phillies were struggling. They're now pretty hot, had a nice series against the Dodgers. They travel to Arizona where the Diamondbacks look like they're picking up where they left off last October. I'm sorry. Well, yeah, October, September and August and they're playing great ball out West. How do you handicap this one? I call this a fishy line. So there's reverse line movement, which means the line's moving in favor of the team that the public's not on. So the public's heavily backing Philly. Of course, it's their exact wheel around the mound. However, the line moved 20 cents in favor of Arizona. So that gets me thinking, OK, if the public wants Philly today, but the sharps are moving the line to Arizona, why? Well, we learned some pitches along the road, but aside for that, I saw that the Phillies faced the Dodgers prior to facing Arizona yesterday. I go, oh, Vulcan usage. That probably is pretty bad for Philly right now. It is pretty much every reliever for Philadelphia is in the red because they just faced the Dodgers and now they get to be back. Whereas Arizona's bullpen is much more rested. Paul Seewell seems to be returning back to his old selfie. Arizona closed our three straight scoreless outing and Ryan Nelson, who's starting for Arizona hasn't been listened so about the beginning of July history. No, two nine eighty R.A. Had a lot of one home run since the beginning of July. I'll take a shot here on the home dog. Talking to Ariel. I've seen his inside access here on the fan area. We got the Mets and the Mariners tonight. Jose Quintana on the mound for the Mets. What are you looking at here? I'm looking at Quintana to go over four and a half Ks. So Quintana in the last 10 starts to five nine. He's five and two. I was like, oh, what is Quintana doing better recently? In the last month that he did previously, he's been throwing the curve ball more and Quintana is getting a lot more swing and miss on the curve, which is why it left four outings against high K or eight teams. He's had at least five strikeouts. So now Seattle is on pace. According to my MLB researchers at MLB Network. Seattle is on pace to have the highest strikeout rate in baseball history against Lexi this year, Seattle's averaging just under six strikeouts a game. And against the Kurt will just breaking balls in general against any breaking balls, they're hitting 194 and have the second highest strikeout rate. And if Quintana is going to throw that curve a lot more, then you're going to see Seattle striking out more like they do per usual. So I'm going to take the over four and a half Ks that Quintana. Before we let you go, Ariel, we're all old enough to remember when your Baltimore Ravens were a winning and covering machine in the preseason. The streak is now over and we will always lament that. But will you dabble at all and Ravens fake football here in the next couple of weeks. Oh, guys, I can't do it. I just feel like the magic is gone. Yeah, you know what? I'm hopeful because if they have a really bad preseason, maybe they'll actually make it to the Super Bowl this year. I also saw that majority of action on fanatics fourth book is on under 11 and a half wins on the Ravens, which guys, this is great. The public is finally off of us. You never want to be on the side of the public unless, of course, you're tough on Brady. Then everyone bets you and you still win. But normally when you're on the side of the public, you lose. And that's been happening to the Ravens last couple of years. I'm ready for everyone to come off of us so that the Ravens can just start being underdogs again. And then that's when everyone's like, oh, wow, pleasantly surprised. Ariel, I've seen a lot of people know where they can find you. Then that is fourth book. I'm all the network and be a TV and on social media at Ariel. I've seen Ariel. You're the best. Have yourself a great weekend. We'll talk next week. Have a great weekend, guys. Thanks. Nice. Today's episode is sponsored by Nerd Wallet Smart Money podcast. 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