We are just about 2 weeks out from the trade deadline, and the Nats will be busy with All-Star closer Kyle Finnegan & outfielder Lane Thomas. Who fits the "must sell" list and is Kyle Finnegan & Lane Thomas on that? We get you our 2024 and half goals for the Nats, are they realistic enough? Lastly, we preview the Reds-Nats series this weekend.
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(upbeat music) - A big question for the Washington Nationals, moving forward is what will they do at this year's trade deadline? And guys, I'm not gonna lie. Kind of buying the fire sale. (upbeat music) - You are locked on nationals. You're daily Washington Nationals podcast, part of the locked on podcast network, your team every day. - And thank you all for making locked on nationals. You are firstless in every single day as we are free and available wherever you get your podcasts. And of course, I'm your host Ryan Clary. You can catch me over on Twitter @RyanClary11 and as well as the show page @ello_nationals. For our latest nationals, news and notes, make sure to check us out over on Twitter and while you're at it, make sure to search up locked on nationals wherever you get your podcasts, including over on YouTube. Again, just search locked on nationals there. Later on in today's show, we'll have a Red's Nat series preview as Ellie David Cruz and the Cincinnati Reds come to town here. They have had a little bit of a disappointing season in my opinion, but I think they could be up for a pretty solid second half of 2024. Why have that preview for you? A little bit later on in today's show. Second segment, the second half individual goals for 2024. I've got a few in mind, hint, young prospects, young core. We'll have that for you and get into some goals for the nationals and again, individual goals and who we wanna see step up and what are some numbers that we could look at? I'll have that for you in the second segment of today's show, but we start off discussing what will the nats do at this year's trade deadline and everybody buckle up. You're gonna be upset. I'm ready for a fire sale. I said it, I'm ready to sell the team. Yup. This episode of locked on nationals is brought to you by booking.com. Booking.you have the right stay can make you a fan of any city, even your arrival. So check out booking.com for your stay today. We get into it today with discussing the trade deadline. And this has kind of been a topic that I've been thinking about for quite some time. What do I do? Like, what do I want? I'm a nationals fan. I root for the team. I cover the team. I do both. I can spin both plates at once. It's a nice thing to have. But what do I want? What is the end goal here? The end goal is for the nationals and really just for the big picture is to have that 2019 season again. To have all these prospects come up, you develop your Juan Soto, you develop your Anthony Rendon, you develop your Trade Turner, you sign your Mac Shurzer, you develop your Steven Strasburg, you have all those core pieces there, you develop them. You do all the things that you're supposed to do as a good organization. Now, what sets you up to get there? You have to sell and you have to know when to sell. Hear me out for a second. There's a couple different names and I'm going to kind of go through a different category for each of these guys. There's a must-sell list that I have in my opinion and one of these guys, in my opinion, fans will be limited about. And there's one guy who fits on the fence, but I do lean one way with him. We'll get into that later on. As far as my must-sell goes though and why I want to see these guys go, it's not because I don't like them, it's not because they aren't good players, it's just simply the right time to move on. So who fits in the must-sell category? Number one, Dylan Flora, easy said and none. This guy has had post-season experience, teams are going to be calling about him. He's had a bounce-back season considering where he was just last year and he has been a reliable piece in this bullpen. Nobody's complaining about that. That was the entire deal when you signed Dylan Flora. This is what you expect. Derek Law, another guy who's had a bounce-back season who has been solid, no questions asked there. You have to sell Derek Law. Trevor Williams, if he is healthy, you do sell him now, it is unfortunate considering we don't really know where he's at and the rehab's going to take some time. You're not going to get back for what you once were going to get earlier on this season, but still trade him for whatever's out there. A baseball for all I care. He's not part of the future at this point. Trade Trevor Williams. Jesse Winker, the one guy in my opinion, who you signed this year going into the season, maybe not expecting all that much, who has blown away his expectations. This is a guy who fits that. Let's see what this veteran can do. You signed him to a one-year deal. Can Jesse Winker have that bounce-back season again? This guy was an all-star at one point in time. Back with the Cincinnati Reds. And if you look around the National League and even the entire major league baseball, they need outfielders. Jesse Winker, he's got some experience in the outfield over the years. Jesse Winker is going to get traded no matter what. And he has been a fan favorite in my opinion, but still, you have to sell Jesse Winker and it doesn't matter if you think like the price isn't right for Jesse Winker. The quote unquote right price for Jesse Winker is the best package of prospects or even if it's just the best prospect available. That is the best price for Jesse Winker. That is the only price for Jesse Winker, by the way. If the Nationals were to hold on to him, this would be a complete epic failure. Yes, he has been great. I love Jesse Winker. I would buy his jersey if he was here long-term, but he's not. That's not the plan. He does not fit in this future. You've got your James Wood. You've got Dylan Crews coming up and you've got other guys coming up as well who will likely be in the outfield. Maybe it's Seaver King someday. Who knows? He is not part of this future. It sucks to say goodbye to him. He has been a very good outfielder, but this is why you sign your veteran guys in order to have their season turns around. Because again, this guy has been a well above average major league hitter and it's not just because of luck. He has gotten back in shape, has done all the right things. He has set all the right things. He's been a great teammate. He's been a scrappy little national out there. He's stealing bases. He is athletic. He's doing everything that you ask him to do. That is why you trade him. That will be of value to a team looking to make a nice little October push. The last and final guy on my must sell list. This is where I'm going to ruffle some feathers. Kyle Finnegan. I love Finne. He's been a great closer. In my opinion, one of the better free agent deals that Mike Rizzo has struck over the last few seasons. Signed him from the Oakland A's after 2019, never pitched a single game in the major leagues prior to coming here in 2020. Mike Rizzo signed him a major league deal and everyone was like, who the heck is this guy? He was fine in year one, fine in year two, started to show some flashes, year three. And ever since then, he's been really just broken out and has been a solid, contending piece of this bullpen and he is now an all-star closer. Kyle Finnegan's price tag will never be as high as it is than it is right now. You take whatever it is worth. Again, the same thing goes with Jesse Winker. I ask yourself, ask yourself this question. Is Kyle Finnegan going to be a part of this future? In my opinion, yeah, maybe the immediate future if you hold on to him, he could help you go into next year's postseason run. You're not gonna win the World Series. And again, you have guys. If you look down in the minor leagues, again, Jose Frere coming off an injury, he's gonna be making his major league appearance here hopefully within the next few weeks. Zach Brixi as well, another guy who's looked really good so far while rehabbing down in the minors coming off TJ. These are two guys, I'm not saying they're gonna be your closer, but they are showing a lot of stuff even coming off injuries. And again, you've got other pieces as well who could be that down the line. Maybe it's a Jackson relage. Maybe you've got a couple other arms like a Mason Thompson comes back from the dead after having Tommy John surgery and see what this kid can do. Or you trust Mike Grizzo and he'll fill that piece out. Kyle Finnegan, you sell for the best price and that is it. No more thinking, no more questions. You sell Kyle Finnegan for whatever you can get at this year's dead life. Now we're on the fence with the lane train. If it was up to me, I'm training lane Thomas. This is like a tug of war kind of question. I go one way and I go back to the other. I think right now is we're just about two weeks out from the trade deadline, Lane Thomas. I am trading him for the best package that you can get. The reality with Lane Thomas is this, he's good, but he's not great. Is he really a starting outfield or on a good contending team? I think he can be, but he's certainly not going to be your MVP. He's probably going to be your seven or eight hitter. And even then, if you look at his platoon splits, this is a trend and it's a trend that's not just been over the course of this season. This has been his entire career. He is a platoon outfielder. He's only really going to hit left-handed pitching. He hits it really well, but still, if you're going to be an everyday contending kind of team, you don't really have that platoon outfield anymore. Now a team like the Yankees could look at that and say, "Well, we have Alex Verdugo who hits right-handed pitching really well. We need someone who can hit left-handed pitching. Bam, you've got yourself a Lane Thomas right here, sitting here, the Nationals are willing to trade him." Teams out there may value that, but I truly think that Lane Thomas is really just a fourth out fielder at this point. That is kind of the gut feeling that I get. And again, I love the guy. He has been awesome from day one. You should like Lane Thomas. He has been a scrappy net. He has been all the right things here in DC. One of the better trades that Mike Rizzo has made since 2019, by far outside of the Juan Soto deal obviously. But as of today, I'm trading Lane Thomas. And I think the Nationals, I think that's what they just might do. I don't know 100%. I haven't heard anything about it. I would not be surprised to see the Nationals move off of Lane Thomas this year's deadline. And one of those guys as to why I think they should do that with Lane Thomas is James Wood. I'll have that explanation for you. And I think it does make sense. You may not like it, but I kind of love it. I'll tell you why I think that, I have to tell you guys, but our friends over at booking.com. This episode of Lockdown Nationals is brought to you by booking.com. Booking.Yeah, with summer travel heating up, especially travel for baseball games, it's time to explore those US cities. You always secretly wanted to learn more about, yes, we're talking about your rival cities. With hotels, bed and breakfast, vacation rentals, resorts, and so much more on booking.com. You might just find your perfect stay even in your baseball rival cities. So maybe you're going up to Baltimore when the Nationals take it on the O's. You can find a nice little deal over at booking.com and get a nice little treat in a hotel or a bed and breakfast maybe. And you can find a nice little stay there. 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What makes you think Lane Thomas is in the way of James Wood? Well, I'm valuing both sides of this right now. Number one, you know about what James Wood can do offensively. He's had his struggles, but still. James Wood is James Wood, the number one prospect in all of baseball, the face of the organization moving forward, everything that you wanted, everything that you've dreamed about, the Juan Soto deal, it means so much to have James Wood develop. He is not a natural left fielder. I know the Nationals, you know them too. You know Davey Martinez in the way that he is loyal. It's great. I love it as a manager, but here's where it gets in the way. He will not move off of Lane Thomas in right field. That is where James Wood should belong. They will not put Lane Thomas in left field. They just won't. Lane Thomas was a gold glove finalist last year in right field. He's a very good right fielder. It doesn't necessarily make sense to move him over to left and move over to James Wood. I'm sure they know and understand that James Wood means everything to them, but they can't quit Lane Thomas and they will not be able to quit Lane Thomas. I'm telling you, I have read this book before and you have read this book before as well. Lane Thomas, I love the guy, but trade him. You have your future right here and right now with James Wood. What are you going to do with it? Stick him in left field. He will never be a left fielder. He is way too good defensively to play in left field. He's either going to be your right fielder or your center fielder. And even then on the other side of the coin, he ain't moving Jacob Young out of center field right now. If he's going to be playing in the outfield, he's your center fielder. He is a very good defensive center fielder. It makes no sense to move off him right now. You're not going to trade him either. This guy has shown promise. He has flown through the net system. He's cheap right now and he's got a ton of years left of control for the team. He's going to be your fourth outfielder going forward. You have to do everything that you can to have James Wood prosper. To make this kid comfortable. To do everything that you can. If he needs his shoe shined, you shine his shoes. If someone needs to choose bubblegum before he chooses bubblegum, you choose bubblegum. If you need to spit out his sunflower seeds for him and have a cup right there for him, you have that cup right there for him. You do everything that you can to cater to James Wood, make it as easy as possible for this guy to flourish up in the majors. That is what 2024 is about. He is here. He is not leaving. You have to cater to James Wood. And in my opinion, James Wood should be in right field. That is why I once see Layne Thomas traded. And also, that's just where James Wood naturally should be. He's way too good defensively to stick him in love, way too good of an arm right now. James Wood, right field, marry those two things, move forward with Layne Thomas being traded. That's all I have to say. That's my first goal. I do have a second one, and it's not about James Wood. Keep our oes. Do whatever you can to step it up offensively and defensively. Defensively, there's only one way for you to go, my friend. Up, better, frame better. Have a better pop time. Just don't be the worst defensive catcher in baseball. Offensively, hit for a little bit of power, man. You've had six home runs this year across 70 games and 250 at bats. Last year, you had 18 home runs. In 523 at bats, you stayed healthy the entire year. 136 games played. You're solid. You had a 98 OPS plus, you're right around league average. It's still a tick-blow league average offensively. A 717 OPS, not bad for a catcher who caught basically every single day. But this season, every single number offensively is down and it's not even close. Catch up with this real quick. He has got 30 strikeouts through his first 70 games. Last year, he had their 58 strikeouts in a total of 136 games. 250 at bats this year. 523 last year, his own pace had more strikeouts. He has on pace right now. He has a 220 batting average, a 256 OBP, a 328 slug, and a 584 OPS. All those numbers are well below average. Well below average, well below what we expect from, 'cause again, this guy has actually got some pop. If you remember his 23 games as a rookie with the Nationals, he was a really solid offensive piece for us. You just didn't really get to see it unfortunately. He had 14 RBIs in just 23 games with the Nationals back in 2021 when he was first traded here. Since then, has been all that great. 2022, he was fine, a 673 OPS. Last year, he took a step up, but still the inconsistencies were still there. This year, it has been bad all around. You have your extension now, you gotta take a step up in any of those departments possible. Show us some life. Simple as that. Key bet Ruiz, you'll be getting watched in the second half of 2024. Last but not least, again, this is kind of a selfish one. I think you can look a little bit more into it, but it just kind of gives us a basis of what I wanna see. Mackenzie Gore and Jake Ervin finished 2024 with a sub-34 ERA. Right now, Jake Ervin has a 3, 4, 9 ERA after getting pummeled these last two starts. Simple as that, that's just what happened. And then Mackenzie Gore has an ERA that's inflated up to a 401. Now, their underlying numbers are not bad. Jake Ervin has only walked 2.3 banners per nine. Mackenzie Gore's walking 3 1/2 batters per nine, striking out 10 1/2 per nine. Both those numbers are up/down for the walk rate go. So those are better this year. Jake Ervin walking 1 1/2 batters less per nine this year is strikeout rate is right around the same from what it was last year. But Jake Ervin and Mackenzie Gore, show us what you are, what you've showed us over the first half of the season, besides these last few weeks, you can say. You guys are looking like frontline guys. But at this point in time, there are some questions being raised about you. Can you be the frontline kind of starters at the Nationals and myself included or thinking that you could be? We'll just have to see, but again, those are my goals for the second half of the Nationals season. Let's talk about this red series. Did you a quick little preview of it? And when we do that, Patrick Horbin is on the bump tonight. Fun, can't wait, right? No, I'll tell you guys about that. But let's get into it. Supply house, get supplies from the site that's made for the skilled trade supplyhouse.com. Supplyhouse.com is a rival way to order plumbing, HVAC and electrical products online. 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I love them so much and I know you do as well and we never want them to stop. But as the playoffs have winding down, we have fewer games and sports aren't sports and like I want them to. But Fandall lets me keep the sports going whenever I want. All I have to do is open the app and dream up bets any time I'm in the mood. And this summer Fandall is hooking up all customers with a boost or bonus daily. That's right. There's something for everyone every day all summer long. So head over to Fandall.com and start making the most out of your summer Fandall, the official sports-winning partner of Major League Baseball. Now we get back into it with a little bit of a preview for the Washington Nationals in the Cincinnati Reds. Tonight, Patrick Corbin against Frankie Montas. And again, Patrick Corbin. Going up against one of the better pitchers for the Cincinnati Reds with Frankie Montas. Good luck. Well, got the preview tonight's game. Now, come on. Tomorrow, Mackenzie Gore against Nick Lidola. We've just already talked about Mackenzie Gore, what we want to see. Lidola's actually had a very good season for the Cincinnati Reds. Again, a 3-3-3 ERA through 14 starts. He's got a 1-1-2 whip on the season. He's got 81 Ks and 78 and a third innings pitch so far. Left-handed pitching, playing Thomas. He's in the lineup. Go over to Fandall. I'm just saying. I told you so. I'm saying I told you so. But Sunday, Jake Irvin against Andrew Abbott. What are the better pitchers again? You're seeing three very good pitchers for the Cincinnati Reds this weekend. They are sitting at 47 and 50 on the season. You see Jake Irvin for your nationals on Sunday. This will be some very intriguing match-ups, in my opinion. It bodes well for Lane Thomas. You're seeing two lefties. Unfortunately, it doesn't really bode too well for our top prospect with James Wood. Can he get his second home run as a big leaguer? That's what I'll be watching for. But right now, my money is on Lane Thomas. So L.E. Daily Cruise comes to town. That'll be cool. We want to see L.E. Daily Cruise. But will the nationals get back on track after a much-needed all-star break? We'll have that, hopefully, maybe after this little weekend. We'll see you. I don't know. I'm feeling a little deflated. But I'm glad baseball is back for the duration of 2024. Until then, I'll see you on the other hand. Catch. Eh, that sounded weird. I'll see you some day. How about that? Have a good one. Go nuts. A prime member. You can listen to this lock-down podcast ad-free on Amazon Music. Download the Amazon Music app today. Building a business may feel like a big jump, but On Deck Small Business Loans can help keep you afloat. With lines of credit up to $100,000 in term loans up to $250,000, On Deck lets you choose the loan that's right for your business. 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