- Hello, team, and welcome to bureaucracy. I'm your host, Emily Grosle, and I'm very excited today because I have Peter Lowe's with me, and he is the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at CW. Peter, thank you so much for being here. - My pleasure. - I had dropped out. That's crazy, and we're here to talk about all this. So, Peter, thank you for coming. So, Peter's drinking water, which we support. I am not, I am drinking a beer. I'm drinking a to live wheat ale, watermelon. Highly recommend. Anyways, cheers. - Well, cheers. - So, Peter, could you give us just like the 30 second elevator pitch on yourself and why we should trust what you have to say? - I'm a political pundit, so you probably shouldn't trust me at all. Phil Tetlock, an American academic, who's researched actually political pundit predictions and measured them against actual outcomes and found that dark throwing monkeys are better predictors at political outcomes and plums, and so, that said, the relevant bio is that I'm the director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at the George Washington University. I've worked in and around politics more than 30 years, including in senior staff positions in the House Senate, the Obama administration, consulted, lobbied, all the things that are apparently breaking America and are bad for everything. I've helped take my house, to be honest. - Great. You're welcome. (laughs) So, let's hear it. What's your hot take initial thoughts on Biden dropping out of the presidential race? - It's a little nutty, you know, for a long time, I was saying there's no way he's gonna drop out and the metaphorizes him was that, you know, fight on life for a seat at the bar and then go home after one beer. - Yeah. - But over the last couple of weeks, it's pretty clear that he'd lost the support of all of the Democratic establishment and the major Democratic donors, and it kind of became a self-fulfilling story of when, not if, it didn't have to happen. But, you know, did it happen and did it happen this weekend? I'm not sure it's super surprising given the past couple of weeks. - Have you, in your knowledge and history, ever seen something like this? - No, no one sees something like that. (laughs) You know, Johnson didn't run for reelection, but he told everybody pretty well ahead of time. This is, this, I think we're gonna take all the unprecedented things about US presidential elections and just cram them into 2024, get them out of the way, and so in 2028, maybe we can go back to normal. I think that maybe that's the plan. - That'd be cool. That'd be nice. - That'd be awesome. I miss boring politics. - How boring. I think Bernie Sanders spoke the other day. He's like, you know, politics are supposed to be kind of boring, right? And he's just reality TV show. Based on what happened and now, what's your opinion on the messaging and the way that Biden's campaign was handling all of this because they were very defiant up until the last moment. And while it felt like the world was crumbling around the campaign, it was kind of shocking. - It wasn't until it wasn't, right? It's the old line, you know, how do you go broke slowly at first and then all at once? Although, according to one report, the Biden campaign was canvassing convention delegates as late as, you know, an hour before he announced, saying, "Can Joe Biden count at you?" That said, this all looks pretty well orchestrated. The endorsements are rolling in fast and furious. As I said, I've already gotten a fundraising email. So clearly, there was a machine in place and up and running, but it's, it's, I mean, I don't know. It's gonna be interesting to see where we go from here. - Because it's going to come down, right, to these delegates, could there be a lawsuit that makes its way up to the Supreme Court alleging that it's not a constitutionally approved and not a democratic process? - Maybe, except that, I mean, constitutional lawyers, election lawyers are already scrambling to answer all sorts of weird questions. - Right. - What happens to the number of million dollars in the Biden-Harris campaign? Warch us, for example. But parties nominate their candidates. These aren't, this isn't in the US Constitution. You know, political parties are not in the US Constitution. This isn't, you know, a democratic process with all the country. This is how a political party decides who their nominee is gonna be. And we have primaries and you've got caucuses and some primaries are open, the states have, or people with any party can vote in them, others have the same day of registration, but it's not, the rules aren't the same in party-nominating processes as they are for actual elections for, you know, Governor Mayor, Senate, or US President. - In your experience, what do you think needs to be the messaging and the campaign for the Democratic Party in order to fight against Trump at the next? Or you have a hundred days? - I think they have to tell a story that the American economy is coming back, that it's more robust than any economy around the world. Wages are rising, unemployment's coming down, inflation's coming down, and we have to continue the democratic success of continuing to grow and expand the American economy. And the Republicans are gonna continue to run an inflation, immigration, and chaos. And look, the Democrats are in chaos, there's chaos at the border, there was chaos with the withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Democrats are just like a spinning top, spinning out of control. We need some, we need some order to the S, we need some predictability, go with the strong guy. - Obviously, Donald Trump faced an assassination attempt. The image that came out of that, the one where he has bled on his side of his face, raising a fist, you know, surrounded by Secret Service with the flag in the back, I think was probably one of the best political images in history. How do you think this assassination attempt is going to affect and either help or not help his campaign? - The interesting question, and actually I'm gonna pick a little bit of a fight. - Of course. - I think it's also kind of a terrible question, because it reduces political violence to campaign strategy, campaign tactic. It's like the horse race covers it pulls, except that instead of horse race, it comes roller ball. I think that what we should do is highlight political violence to say this is outside the norm, this doesn't belong in political conversations. That said, we are in a political season, and as one democratic operative, unnamed democratic operative and one of the tip sheets, pointed out that a lot of voters think that Trump is two nuts and Biden's too old, and an assassination attempt doesn't change that. - Yeah. - Biden's out, but Trump, I don't think it's gonna get a whole lot of sympathy. He had a chance at that at the convention, and the convention is relatively subdued. I think the Republicans did a terrific job, actually, on balance. - The convention was subdued? - But it was an anti-democratic, we're gonna burn them down, they want to steal your job. - I'm just thinking of Hulk Hogan ripping off his shirt, but that's fine. - No, but actually, but that's like the perfect metaphor, right? It's a perfect metaphor for a convention, right? It's not quite politics, but it's a terrific show about politics. The way we were wrestling isn't quite sport, but it's a great sporting show. But Trump for 30 minutes, sounded like the guy who'd been shot, we're gonna make it normal, then he spends an hour reminding everybody that he is, in fact, Donald Trump. - Right. How do we calm the narrative? Because everyone's heightened, everyone's freaked out. Like you said, political violence should not be the norm, and unfortunately it feels like it is. I've been to, outside the courthouse, after Trump was found guilty of the 36 crimes for the House 20 case. And I saw within the, for the 15 minutes that I was there multiple physical altercations between those anti-Trump and those pro-Trump. How, as a world, can we get past this? Well, as a world, as an American nation, you know? - That's a great question. I think a lot of it is all of us just being better, right? - Yeah. - It's easy to pop off, you know, the social media statement, "Hey, I don't know. This sounds like an interesting puzzle. Let's think it's through." Doesn't get a whole lot up. Likes or tweets or re-exes or, I don't know, whatever the kids are doing, it's the extreme stuff that does. I think we've got to check ourselves on that. I think we all need to sort of think about how we're saying things. The other part is, I think that members of the press, members of the media should be calling out elected officials when they behave badly. And you had this whole group of Republicans and Democrats after the 10 assassination attempts of Trump saying, "This is unacceptable. This is bad. We've got to dial it back." The moment one of those folks goes over the top, every journalist in America should call them and say, "Hey, you said we should dial back the rhetoric. You just dialed it up again. What are you doing?" And hold people accountable because we behave our incentives, right? And if there's no disincentive for being a screaming lunatic, a lot of politicians are gonna be screaming lunatics. - Yeah. Well, it also feels like it's a cyclical spiral towards doom because also when someone's a raving lunatic, it gets views, you know? - Right. Yeah, they're rewarded. - Right. - Right? And look at the leaders of the Republican Party, especially in the House of Representatives. These are not folks you want babysitting your children, but, you know, they're on TV. They're gonna invite it on podcasts. Probably not this one, I don't know, but. - You know, I had gotten an offer from someone who was running in Connecticut who I think was maybe arrested or something, but he's a Senate candidate. And I was like, "Do I want to open that can of worms?" And I was like, "I don't know." I said, "I get respond." And that's how I avoid conflict. (laughing) - It's healthy. I think that's healthy. - Thank you. - Bottling it up inside? - Yeah. - I think that's, I understand these, that's how you should do this. - Yeah, no, that's what all therapists say. It's very good, it's very healthy. You have a lot of experience having been within campaigns, having worked on the Hill, having worked as an elected, as a appointed official. If you were running the Democratic party right now, what would be your first approach? - The bar, the first approach. (laughing) - I think I would focus on rallying around Vice President Harris and then pushing out a positive message that the US economy is getting stronger, the markets are up, wages are up, unemployment is down, inflation is down. We're doing great things. And the other side wants to take away your rights. They want to make women second class citizens again. They want to tell you who you can love, how you can pray. They want to jail political opponents. I mean, it just doesn't make any sense in America. Let's get back to a point where we're rewarding outcomes. Not output and output is the shouting. Outcomes are, they're more jobs in America than they were 10 years ago. The market's up. - How would you handle the immigration situation because that's the forefront of a lot of people's thoughts, especially the GOP side? - Yeah, it's a mess. I would highlight say we need a rational approach to immigration that rewards people who want to come here and contribute to America and the American economy. We need to be able to protect people who are fleeing violence, hatred, and repression. People walked from Venezuela, a failing socialist regime to the US, a home of capitalism and democracy, and Republicans want to say, "No way, you have to walk back to the socialists." That just doesn't make a ton of sense to me. And I would probably also highlight the fact that Republicans and the House of Representatives killed a bipartisan bill that would have addressed immigration issues in this country. - Right, my concern, now we're just spitballing about what we think is going to happen, is at the beginning of the administration, Kamala was given the opportunity to speak a lot on the immigration issue, right? And she kind of turned it down and kind of turned a blind eye and was like, it's not that important. She's going to be able to come back from that. - I don't know that it's hers. I don't think people are going to remember that. I mean, the Republicans don't remind everybody of that. - Yeah. - But like, we don't remember. People don't know who she is. Never they go. Vice President Harris. - You don't want to fail the border? Like they don't. They're like, I don't know, she looks familiar. - So my question is as well, 'cause they were talking, my friend, my roommate I were talking about, it's my family and I, we all talk about this. She is within the polls and within people discussing her. She's very unlikable. - Right. - Why? - I've never met her. - I don't know. - I've never, I mean, like you, you know, this political gossip that she could be demanding that set. I've got friends who have worked with her and you know, she's fantastic. I mean, she's smart. - Right. - She's one statewide in California. She's been an effective prosecutor. - It's just like, how do we rehab that image? Even though when there's most likely, more than not, is no fundamental basis for that opinion. It's just unfortunately, as we've learned, especially in American society, there doesn't need to be any fact for the feeling, you know? - I'd love to think that was restricted to American society. I think it's a people thing. I think we could behave as if they were people. - Yeah. - And that's not always, you look at people behaving. I look at my own behavior in the past and think, wow, that was, that was weird. - I don't think people know who she is, right? Democratic insiders know who she is. She ran against Biden in 2016, obviously. People who seriously follow the news know who she is. At this point, it's the definition stage, right? And my understanding is the Republican party in the Trump campaign have deep files on Vice President Harris. I don't know all that, but it's really American people. Hey, let me tell you about this woman named Kamala Harris, and it's gonna be a bunch of stuff a bunch of people don't like. And that's how we're gonna learn about her. Part of it might be immigration. Don't forget that a lot of the left didn't like her because she's a prosecutor and her relatively tough on crime policies when she was Attorney General in California. She's not a darling of the left at all. - Right, America's never done this before, you know? So, I mean, it's like, what's gonna happen next? Like, who fucking is? - No one has any idea. - We're having a parliamentary snap election in the middle of a U.S. presidential campaign, which is a weird mashup. - Yeah. - Right, somebody walks into the pitch meeting and says, "I know, let's do what they did in France, "except in July on a Sunday, "what every journalist on planet would rather be the pool." What do you think? And some guy went, "Yeah, that's awesome." Beats that sort of guy's op-ed in the times 'cause really, we're kind of done working. We're a good rational country. - Very good. - Very good. - Every good decision. - Very. From the research you have done, and you know, you lead politics and ethics and, you know, communication, how do we chill the narrative? How do we remember how to engage with people at the opposite side? How do we encourage politicians to engage with people at the opposite side? In a way, we're also acknowledging, like as we talked previously, the way that crazy is rewarded. - A really good question. And I think part of it has to be the incentives. We have to find a way to reward non-extreme behavior. Part of it is our journalists holding people account. Part of it is all of us in the pundits' fear, and the journalists' fear and all that, just being more mindful about it. I think it's also important to remember that it's easy to say that, you know, America was great and wonderful, and politics was perfect until Donald Trump and Twitter, then the wheels came off. And that's just not the case. In the Jefferson Adams Presidential Campaign, the president of Yale University, again, in the Reverend Timothy Dwight, said that if Jefferson-related president or wives and daughters, it'd be subject to legal prostitution. That's a little over the top. - Stay tight. - Right. I mean, William Randolph Hearst had his media empire. He helped stoke the Spanish-American War, and, you know, ship was blown up, and Hearst famously told his photographer, "You provide the photographs, and I'll provide the war." There were whisper campaigns against McCain in the South Carolina primary when he ran. Like, it's not, you know, we weren't these sort of Aristotelite ideals of people discoursing openly, and then, oh my gosh, social media, and we all lost our minds. It's a kind of on all of us to check ourselves, and then also vote, put your money where your mouth is. - So you can say, "I can't answer that question." This is, that's totally okay. - You know, you, I'm sure, have a lot of connects within the, still within the political sphere. Do you know any insider details of what was going on leading up to this? - No, no, I don't, sorry. Do you think you booked a different guest? I'm sorry, I'm not. - I'm hoping. - I'm hoping, no, I'm the guy who is available. Let's be honest, let's, Sunday. - No. - I'm the two of you, God. No, the Biden, I don't, I don't know, President Biden, many people close to him, 'cause this is, this is a pretty small town. But his circle is, is famously tight and famously small, and it's his, it's his wife, it's his sister, he's rolling apparently heavily on, on Hunter. I, who knows? - In a year opinion, is there anything the Biden campaign could have done that could have sustained his campaign and not led to the mass, I would say, screaming for him to drop out? - Yeah, it could have stayed in the rest. Screaming wouldn't stop, but he could have stayed in. It's his decision, he would have gone to the convention to be the nominee. At some point, you gotta get over it. - No. Was there any coming back from his debate performance? - Apparently not. Historically debates don't really do much. The person who does well gets a bounce and the bounce fades, but historically people went to his badly as Biden did, and then his response was late and bad. And he came out the next day and said, wow, I blew that. I mumbled, I had a cold, it was just, that was terrible. Let me tell you what's really going on in America, like immediately own it, then maybe we've had a different conversation, but it just lingered, and lingered, and lingered, and then he just, I was just waiting for, you know, write a horse and bear back and shirtless to prove what I'm wanting, I mean anyway. (laughing) And I have a huge amount of respect for President Biden, and I'm a partisan Democrat, right? I try to be an analyst and play it straight, but I worked in the Obama administration, right? And I worked for the late Senator Kennedy. And I think Biden's presidency has been remarkable if you look at it objectively, bills passed, the economy's doing terrific, especially compared to Europe. Unemployment's down, inflation's coming down. Like the Afghanistan should have been done differently, the border should have been handled sooner and better. But on balance, this has been a really successful presidency, and I really hope that Biden is remembered as a guy who devoted his life to public service. - Yeah. - Like he's spent a lifetime trying to make the lives of the American people better than the world safer. That's amazing, and I hope, I hope-- - I think him dropping out is the only thing that could potentially preserve the legacy. Before we conclude, anything else you would like to address about this crazy time we're in, political communication, ethics, responsibilities, anything? Beer? I don't know. (laughs) - I would really encourage everybody overreacting in the moment to recognize that you're only talking to each other. Most Americans most of the time don't care. They're trying to put gas in their car, they're trying to buy groceries. Most Americans most of the time see politics as bad theater. Let's stop proving them right. - Yeah. - We're acting like grownups. Let's recognize that they are frustrated and the border is a mess, but you can adjust that without being either racist on one hand or having a free-for-all on the other. You can believe in fiscal responsibility without wanting to put the poor on laughs on one hand or reward trillionaires on the other. Like we can have a complicated robust conversation and the less we shout at each other, and the more we come into a conversation with a bit of humility, I just think that the happier we'll be, if nothing else, and hopefully politics will get better as a result, maybe. - Maybe, hopefully. - Peter, this has been such a great conversation. I appreciate all the laughter. I'm your host, Emily Gresson.
