The Jon Sanchez Show
08/14- Do you feel like inflation is coming down?
(upbeat music) - Okay, round two. Name something that's not boring. - Laundry, ooh, a book club. Computer Solitaire, huh? (buzzer) - Ah, sorry, we were looking for Chumba Casino. (upbeat music) That's right, ChumbaCasino.com has over 100 casino style games, join today and play for free for your chance to redeem some serious prizes. (upbeat music) ChumbaCasino.com. - No, we're just gonna say it. (upbeat music) - Good Wednesday, evening, too. Welcome to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780K, which it's a poll measure to be with you and a poll measure to be with my co-host, Mr. Jason Gunnar, Sanchez, Wolf Management. The clappy, happy guy that he is. Hey, do my friends. - Yeah, we were doing some calisthenics before the show. (laughing) - Exactly, exactly. That's how we get things done around here. You gotta be in shape, be mentally sharp, yeah. I wonder if the Japanese still do that. - Remember, yeah. Remember Gunnar, the movie? Did you ever watch that? - Yeah. - With the Michael Keaton. Amazing movie. - Yeah, exactly. - Yeah, I don't know. - See those guys out there doing all the calisthenics before they get on the factory floor. - We should do that. I think it moves a lot of sense, yeah. Over Zoom in the morning. - Yeah, exactly, exactly. There you go. After the show, we do a little stretchy new. Get ready. I hear you. (laughing) Oh goodness, all right. Well, welcome everybody. We do appreciate you joining us. Let me tell you what we have on the calendar for you this evening. You know, Jay, I created a new word yesterday, well, no, I didn't create a new word. I used the new word with the guys yesterday and I think it's appropriate to use it today. And I brought up the Mr. Rogers show that our kids kind of grew up watching. Bailey, did you grow up? Did you watch our marketing manager, Bailey, my daughter's on. Bailey, did you watch Mr. Rogers as a kid? I don't remember. No? Okay, I can remember if you did or not. But you always kind of had a word of the day type of thing. And so the word of the day today, Jason, just like it was yesterday, is disinflation. I used it yesterday because of, right? Because of the PPI report that was weaker than expected. Here we go with the CPI report today. Disinflation now finding its way around. Not a bad report. So we're gonna tell you, that's actually gonna be our topic after we do the stock market recap. We're gonna get into this because, you know, we on Wall Street, you know, we live and die by minute changes, right? Up one tenth down one tenth. I mean, just minute changes. And I know many of you, when you hear, you know, Jason and I talked about it on the stock updates or on the show, probably just roll your eyes and go, really? I mean, you guys are talking about that. Well, that's again what Wall Street does, right? We slice hairs to get down to the actual numbers. Well, today, once again, we had a CPI number that was very, very highly anticipated because again, this is kind of setting the stage for that September meeting by the Fed. And so again, this report carried a lot of weight. And basically what we found out is, this solidified Wall Street's hope that a September rate cut is going to happen. Now, the odds again, yesterday increase, I didn't get a chance, maybe you did, Jason. I did get a chance to see the Fed Fund Futures contract today, but yesterday had nudged up to, yeah, a little over a half a percent, was it down? Okay, it went down today. - Only 30 something percent of a 50, but a hundred percent of a 25. - Okay, yep, yesterday it was about 52, if I remember correctly, that we're gonna get a half a percent increase. And so, yeah, so that dropped dramatically. But, you know, I think just the issue, Jason, that we're talking about a half a percent cut, which really has only surfaced by, I'd say the majority of Wall Street, just over the last couple of weeks. I think that's something that's very interesting. But, whether it's a quarter, whether it's a half, you know, that's not the topic tonight. But what is the topic is this? As you're gonna learn, when we go through today's CPI report, and of course we covered yesterday's PPI report, is inflation is no-jing down. And that's why the street is, again, as Jason just said, a hundred percent confident that we're gonna see a half, at least a quarter percent cut at the September 18th meeting by the Fed, maybe a half, who knows. But here's the question. In your personal life, does inflation feel like it's coming down? And I think if I was in a room with thousands of you right now, your heads would be shaking, no, right? I don't know of anybody that says, oh yeah, things are a lot cheaper today, or this aspect of my life is a lot cheaper today than before. So even though we are seeing and reading the Wall Street data, the economic data showing inflation is coming down, I still am convinced, Jason, that we are not seeing it. I know I'm not, I don't know about you, I don't know about anybody else, but I think we all agree. We're not seeing it in other aspects of our life. So what Jason and I are gonna do, we're gonna go through today's CPI report. Of course, we'll tell you what the numbers on the headline were, but we're gonna also go through some of the mini ingredients to use a cooking term, some of the mini ingredients that make up the CPI report. So we're gonna tell you, all right, for the month of July, which was today's data, food and beverage, was it up or down? Housing, equivalent rinse, which is a big, big factor in many people's lives, was that up or down? Transportation, motor fuel, go right on down the list. And you will see that a lot of these areas have not come down, we've had a few of them, but not a lot of them. And hence the reason that I think, again, if we're all sitting in a room together, you'd be shaking your head, no, if I ask that question, do you think that inflation is down? And you may say, yeah, maybe on the Wall Street numbers, but definitely not in the personal life. How about you, Jay, are you feeling any pullback, anywhere in good services you and the family use? No, no. And I mean, again, remember, inflation at even 2% means that it's growing 2% year over year, right? It doesn't mean that it's gone down. And that's the part that people get a little confused with too. I think the number we talked about a couple of months ago was if you haven't had a 15% raise over the last three years, you've basically had your money-- Touch on that point, 'cause we got a new audience. Touch on that point, that is an extremely valuable point that you've brought up in the past in the studio. To keep it simple, if inflation's up 5% this year, which we saw as high as 7% plus 2 years ago, but if inflation's up 5% this year, all things being equal, then you've lost 5% buying power and/or the goods and services that you're buying are 5% more expensive, well, then, OK, next year, let's say this same time next year, inflation is up 4%. That means it's up, again, without compounding, 9% over those two years. Doesn't mean 5 going to 4 means prices went down. They went up, they just went up less. And now we're dealing with, remember, growth historically, the Fed equates growth with a 2% inflation rate. If prices are decreasing, that tends to go commensurately with a lack of growth. And so that's why they want to see prices rising 2% year over year, because it shows the economy's growing, the prices of goods and services are rising, steadily down the price. But not too much. Yeah, 2% is not too much. Yeah, the free bears, right? And that's sort of what the Fed's targeting. So a 3% number, like we see today, still implies that last year could have been up 50%. And since we're up 3% this year, they're higher than they were last year. So it doesn't mean things are going down. It just means they're going up less fast. And that's what I've told folks for a while. I don't think prices are going down. They never looked like something. But for some of the items, cars and such where you couldn't get semiconductors, those things have come down a lot, like not up less, but truly have come down. But food, for example, right? We've got China, we've got India, we've got a growing middle class globally that is in the billions of people, right? And they want grains and wheat and cell phones and cars and all the things that all classes will identify middle class has been craving for a long time and been able to afford. We've got a global competition. It's not to cause fear, this is just fact. And so the price of protein. So all of these items are going to continue to have demand from everywhere. And so I think when people are like, I can't wait till grocery prices are coming down. I can't wait till the 49ers win the Super Bowl, but I don't unfortunately keep thinking it's gonna happen and every year it doesn't. So these are the things that you need to know as an investor and this is why the Fed freaks out because prices don't come down. So what happens? I go into John or a team comes into me and says, I need a raise or else, right? Well, okay, here's a raise. And at some point that becomes too expensive for companies or they have to say no and then employees need to go chase after something else and/or they're in a tough spot. They can't make enough money to make things meet. And that's what causes that sort of wage inflation and/or price spiral. And that's what the Fed's trying to control. Now if prices go back to not growing as much, people will get calmer. They start to be a little more certain in their jobs, labor force settles. There's all those sort of cross-currents that you know, why they keep it. - Well, you know, when inflation was surging in 2022 and some of last year, of course, you and I had a lot of discussions on the shows as well as, you know, privately. And that one of the biggest costs or, you know, for any business, of course, I don't care for you, whatever you make is payroll costs, right? And when, remember when inflation was up, what was our peak up, 15% or something? I mean, we're up a little over 20%. - So yeah, high not, I got to 9% annualized at this. - Yeah, annualized. But, you know, as you and I touched on, there is no employer out there that can go back to their employees and say, hey, remember, I gave you a pay bump back in, you know, 2022, 2023? And oh, I need to take that back because, hey, cost her down. So as a consumer, these prices are just going to continue to rise because, you know, especially, you know, - Minimum wage. - Not a put, there you go, because of minimum wage. And of course, things like that have happened in California where, you know, you can now make $20 an hour, you know, flipping hamburgers. I mean, that's going to find its way across the country. It's somewhat unique to California right now, but you mark my word if the Democrats, you know, win control of the Senate, win control of the House and win control of the presidency, this way that started in California, California is always a test ground. It will find its way across the country. It'll find our way into our great state. It'll find its way everywhere. And that's again, like you said, the wage inflation side of things. So it is a major, major part of why prices are so much higher today than they have been in the past. And only going to continue and only going to continue. So yeah, so you're going to get a great lesson in inflation today, folks. Again, we're going to go through some of these areas that make up the CPI report and you'll understand why the street got a little bit excited today. We got a good number on, or good rally on the Dow side of things, but faded a little bit on the NASDAQ and the S&P. So we're going to give you all those details when we do a market recap with Mr. Gott. In just a moment, our first Kristin Snow has us all lined out in the right now, traffic center. Hey, Kristin. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780KOH with Jason Gunnar, Sanchez wealth management. Well, like I said, it was a nice session for the Dow side, but to fade it a little bit on the NASDAQ. We finished with a gain of 243 on the Dow, 0.61%. Broke the 40,000 mark though, Jason, 40,000, 0.08, not bad. Five point gain on the NASDAQ and a 21 point rise on the S&P 500. Take it away, my friend. I think the news has done a tremendous job on freaking everybody out about Monday's move and not telling them about the fact that the market was up last week. I mean, a number of folks that I've talked to over the last couple of days have been like, oh my gosh, how bad is it? I'm like, you're fine. And so I think, we need to add a new factor of one CNBC starts playing that scary market sell-off move. You need to double down on whatever bet that you have. But market today, we front ran today's CPI report. PPI yesterday was good enough. Market priced in 95% of sort of what it expected was gonna happen today. I would argue tomorrow's number is more important. We've got retail sales, yeah. Right now, you had Austin Ghoulsby out, who's kind of the fun, love and fed guy now of all of them. And he's out saying that they're more concerned about the labor than they are now about inflation. So we're focusing much like the market tends to do as it gets fixated on the old news. And I think now it's gonna be more about what is the retail environment look like? Is the consumer tapped out? Are credit card rates going up? Are jobs starting to wane? How much of the last, you know, the sell-off on Monday that was to some extent triggered by yen, but also the week Friday jobs number. If retail sales start to come plummeting down, does that, you know, give the market? Oh, no, we're going into a recession and we go through that tailspin again for a week or two. So I think tomorrow's not-- - And I'll get my surprise rate cut if the consumer's dropping, right? - No, see Jeremy Siegel is out today. I don't know, do you see him back heavily aggressively tripping over his desk. Basically apologizing for his-- - Oh, are you serious? I'm not, I'm still convinced. - Yeah, I'm still convinced. I'm the lone soldier out there. (laughing) - Is it an emergency now a week or two later? I said if something occurs that, you know, like I said, if retail sales are down 10% tomorrow, then maybe the Fed freaks out, but sort of as we're saying, if you're Jerome Powell in your game this whole time is to be calm, cool, and collective, even though you may be scared on the inside, they have to continue to do so unless a gun's put to their head. And so that's sort of why thoughts are again. - Absolutely. - But yeah, I mean, retail sales will be important. But today, a little bit of an M&A, you know, seeing Mars, Kelanovo, which is the spinoff from Kellogg's part of their business, that was nice to see more of that consolidation, Cisco numbers after the close, good enough, also cutting the workforce, which had already been announced. But today, to me, felt more like a pre-jobs day, ironically, market not really having any direction. After a big move yesterday, I was walking out of here yesterday saying, "Look, even if today's number stinks, "we have 150 basis points of market gains "in our back pocket to at least be a bit of a buffer." And it was plenty fine today in line, was good enough. And now retail sales and some of those, if they can continue to be. But there's a lot of data out tomorrow, right? We've got retail sales, but you've also got business inventories. You've got import export prices, capacity utilization. So all those things will feed into a-- And the weekly initial claims that we get over Thursday. >> Right, yeah. So a good sniff on what the consumer's looking at. Yeah, you see a jobless claims, I think north of 250 tomorrow, and people may start to get a little concerned, but again, we'll see. >> Absolutely. Let's roll down at some of these numbers a little bit more. Let's tag on to the retail sales, what the expectation is. So in June, we got a big goose egg, it was 0%. So we didn't get any gain whatsoever from May to June. They're anticipating a fortence of a percent increase from June to July. But let's keep in mind, for those of you that may not be aware, the reason, again, where I was talking at the beginning of the show, why Wall Street splits hairs when it comes to these reports. Remember, you and I as a consumer, we represent almost two thirds of economic spending. So this is how Wall Street gauges the health of the consumer. If the consumer is not out there spending indicative by a weaker than expected retail sales number, then that could cause problems. And again, as Jason said, you all kinds of things start to tumble. But on the flip side of it, and this is why retail sales are very, very difficult to predict, the consumer has shocked everybody, including myself, and I'm sure you're in the same camp, Jason, the consumer has shocked everybody, the resiliency of them, right? Because they still back to the jobs. They still have a job and so on and so forth. So they're out spending. And hence why inflation has been a little bit stubborn. So it's a coin toss, in my opinion, where this retail sales number. But you don't want too hot of a number. You don't want too cold of a number, too hot of a number. Then again, we go back to the Fed camp, too cold of a number. And now everybody starts to worry and John looks like a hero and gets his emergency rate cut. But I'm not going to let this look. I'm either going to hang all over my face and lose 35 years of credibility. I'm going to be in here. I'll roll on the dice, baby. Go big go home. - Right, no one data points ever going to just throw it credibility, right? But I think, you know, once, so I'm of the opinion that the reason that inflation is as stubbornly high as it is, is actually more a function of the fact of demographics, and that there is a slew of baby boomers that are sitting there in short-term treasury accounts earning 5% a year. Well, that's coming down, folks, right? The 10 year, you know, even looking at the two year, right? Which tends to be what folks say we don't really even need the Fed as far as their guidance or commentary or any of that stuff. The two year right now is sitting at 397, right? So that gives you a sense of, at least over the next 12 months where rates odds are land, you know, three years at 377. So if those numbers start to come down, my question is do retail sales start to decline? Does the market consumption in general start to wane merely because of that free cash flow that many of these folks are earning in their savings accounts will start to come down? And so that's the thing that we want to keep an eye on as long as rates, at least on the short end, are staying where they are and savings accounts aren't coming down, money market rates aren't coming down, people are going to still earn money and keep spending because they're out traveling and trailers and all that other sort of stuff, you know, but you start to see rates come down and ironically, it may be more of something that slows things down, not necessarily what you would typically expect of, hey, rates are lower, people are going to refine, spend money, do they actually stop spending money because they're not getting as much free money. - Right. You know, there's an absolutely, to your point, there's an absolutely fabulous article, I highly recommend it if any of you have a Wall Street Journal, wsj.com subscription, exactly on this topic, why the baby boomer, or excuse me, why the Gen Zs and Xs and so on and so forth, why they are holding up so well. And again, to my point, keeping the consumer spending very, very strong, they mentioned exactly what you're talking about, right? The higher savings rates, they're getting in CDs, et cetera. But the driving, the number one force according to this article is the equity that they have, those that are fortunate enough to own a home, right? They've bought their home in the last two or three years, they've done pretty well in most parts of the country. You know, they're probably up at least 10%, if not more, definitely more here locally. And so they're feeling wealthy because they've got that equity that's built up there. And then of course, you find situations where people, to your point, you know, if they got equity sitting in there, I think there's gonna be a refi massive boom. We had the mortgage application numbers that we get each and every Wednesday. We had those this morning, if I remember, right? Last week, it's actually a week behind. They served, I think it was 34%, right? And that was because we had that little decline in the 30-year mortgage. So this tells me once again, the consumer is so very, very rate sensitive, as we all know, when it comes to mortgages, and it's gonna get those people off the fence that have been waiting to buy a home, number one. And then number two, you know, as Dwight mentioned on the show last night, Jason, the 15-year actually broke 6%. And the 30-year FHA is right there. I didn't see where it closed today, but it's right there, ready to break 6%. So you get down in that 5% mark, and I think people are gonna go, number one, yeah, you know what, okay, maybe I have a three or 4% mortgage, but I really wanna move to a bigger home or move somewhere else. That's gonna be enough to trigger them, but also I think it's gonna trigger a massive refi boom. And then people are gonna take that equity, it's gonna be unlocked, and to your point, you know, hopefully they pay down debt and do smart things with it, but you and I both know most people will not do that, they'll go out and buy, you know, a bunch of crazy things, and that stimulates the economy. So the consumer's important, you know, absolutely important, so. All right, good stuff, man, good stuff. All right, we come back, we're gonna get down into, do you feel that inflation is coming down in your personal life? We're gonna add some data from you, or for you from today's CPI report. I think you're gonna say the answer is no, but first let's turn it over to my dear friend, Greg Neff. He's got news traffic and weather. Hey, Greg. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Talk 780K, which we had Jason, gone to Sanchez Wealth Management. A 243 gain on the Dow today is how we finished .61% at a 40,008 level. Now, as I come up just five S&P higher by 21. Again, a lot of this was driven, as Jason mentioned earlier, absolutely correct, it was a carryover from yesterday's relatively de-inflationary PPI number today with CPI. Now, let's go to the numbers, and then here's the question we're gonna be discussing for the rest of the show, which is, is inflation coming down in your personal life? Even though the data that Jason and I received, and other people on Wall Street received, showing that it is coming down. I think the answer is gonna be, no, it's not coming down on my personal life. Are you kidding me? So here's what the street said. All right, total CPI, up to 10% month over month. Again, this is July data. That was as expected. Core CPI, that's where we strip out food energy, was up two-tenths of a percent, also as expected. Now, if we look at a year-over-year basis, total CPI up 2.9% for the month of July. If we go back to June, we're up 3% year-over-year. So there's that little come down there. And then the core CPI, again, stripping out food and energy, up 3.2% year-over-year. And if we go to June's number, we're up 3.3. So not only core, but headline CPI on a year-over-year basis has come down. But many of you may be wondering, wait a minute here, what the heck goes into CPI? Well, it's a number of different things that we're going to go through, some of them. We can't get to all of them. But remember, as we always like to remind all of you, there is a more favorite measure of inflation that the Fed looks at called the Personal Consumption Expenditure, the PCE, that takes all of this data from CPI, PPI, and quite a few other data points. And the Fed looks at that. And again, they pay more attention to that than they do CPI and PPI. But all I'm concerned about is your life here. So Jason, let's kind of start with one that we talk a lot about that actually bumped up a little bit in a still-up year-to-date. That's that thing that we call the shelter index. We had a nice little bump-up on a month-over-month basis, had a pretty, still up pretty significantly on a year-over-year basis. Let's tackle that one first, 'cause everybody's got to pay shelter in most cases. Yeah, I mean, at home that equivalent rents, that's a part two that I think tends to be the focus for the Fed, et cetera. So it's certainly something that is coming down, as rental costs come down, but it's still a pretty big number. Absolutely, shelter index, again, up four-tenths of a percent. That's pretty substantial, four-tenths of a percent month-over-month, but at 5.1% year-over-year. So those of you that are renters or in some form-of-fashion apartment, a house or whatever, again, if you make a rule of summer number, if you paid $1,000 a year, a month in rent, yeah, it can only be so low, now you're paying $1,050, right? And that's a pretty substantial number. You analyze that. So that has been one area that Jerome Powell and the rest of the Fed members, Jason, have spent a lot of time talking about it in the different press conferences, et cetera. They're very frustrated when it comes to the shelter index. They're kind of scratching their head why this number has not come down, but I think it's pretty simple, in my opinion, for what I know, and that is, it's supply and demand, right? It's supply and demand. You were talking about the baby boom, or the Gen Xs and Gen Zs and all that. They all want to live somewhere, and of course they're out there and they're renting up apartments and so on and so forth, and then of course we know the nation's housing shortage. So I'm not surprised that number's not budging too much, to be honest with you. - Yeah, it's a number that I think we need to be very concerned with. And it's very much tied to the costs of interest rates being higher, which makes landlords raise prices, and hopefully that'll come down over time. - You got it. All right, let's get to something that we all need, and that is food, of course. The food index, month over month, up to 10th of a percent, up 2.2% year over year. That number's way down, but obviously it's still up to a little over 2% on a year over year basis, so it's pretty substantial. - Yeah, I mean, it's one of those things that, I mean, same thing, food, energy. We talked, you know, food's gonna be something that's going to continue to see those price hikes, like it or not, as far as the labor force that historically has been involved with those areas. Wages and prices are going up for all areas to get food from the ground to the stores, and until that comes down, then I expect food prices to harvest. - Absolutely, and that's food and beverage, by the way, up to 10th of a percent month over month. Now, let's go to apparel. This is one of the few areas that was actually down. In the month of June, apparel was up 1/10th of a percent for the month of July, down 4/10th of a percent. I'm guessing it's factored at two reasons, and I didn't get a chance to go into the details of what makes up the apparel calculation, but I'm gonna assume there's two parts to it, among many others. Number one, obviously it's the amount of sales. How much is the consumer spending on clothing, apparel, et cetera? But also, I'm wondering if apparel prices overall are down a little bit, simply because some of the commodity prices are down to say, things like cotton and some of the different ingredients that go into different makes of clothes. I'm wondering if those numbers are down a little bit to give us that 4/10th of a percent decline. - Yeah, certainly could be, and I think those are the ones that you don't know until later, what causes the increases decreases. - Yep, all right, then we move on to transportation. Another one that was down fractionally, down 1/10th of a percent for July, June it was down 1.3%, May it was down 1.1, April we were up slightly. Not sure why that one was down, again, the fractional number here, when you're only up or down 1/10th, 2/10th, something like that, that obviously can change very dramatically, but yeah, I didn't think that was too major on that side of it, just a 1/10th of a percent decline there. - These numbers are gonna be stubborn, and at least they're coming down in the right direction, but we're still at 3%. Like you said, PCA two and a half should be a positive and hopefully continuing to trend lower. The Fed just wants to keep a close eye on things to not see those disinflation continue and cause everything to dive, and that's the part we wanna keep an eye on. - Absolutely. All right, let's go to the next piece of inflationary data that came out, and that is vehicles. Now, this is an area, remember, I experienced this myself. I had a vehicle that I found I was not driving, so I'm like, let's get rid of this, this was not long after the pandemic, and I was shocked to walk into, I did a little KBB.com Kelly Blue Book, and it's literally less than a minute, I'm not kidding you, of putting my vehicle on there after I got a pricing. I had, I think, five dealerships calling me, and I shopped around, got the, you know, took the highest price, and it was amazing. You know, I drove this Toyota Tacoma for three, four years, I think it was, and I think I sold it for, I think $6,000 less than what I bought it for. I mean, used vehicle prices were way up. Now, they have been trending lower, but at the same time, Jason, so let's get to the data, down 7/10 of a percent for July, down 1% in June, unchanged in May, so on and so forth. So the trend is, every month, it's starting to tick down a little bit, as far as vehicles are concerned, but I think the other reason too is, my gosh, you just go to your favorite car dealer, and you look at the likes of a Chevy, a Ford, a Dodge, you know, Ram, et cetera, it's, I asked myself, who in the hell can afford these these days? I mean, when you're talking 60, 70, 80,000 for a basic truck nowadays, I'm like, you gotta be kidding me. I mean, I've shared this with you all fair. You know, we bought a bunch of Dodge trucks from my ranch, back in 2018, you know, these are 3,500, we put flatbeds on 'em, I think I paid, on average, maybe 43, 45,000, that exact same truck without the flatbed now, almost $80,000, I mean, and again, just from 2018, it's mind boggling, but I think, you know, consumers, especially with these higher interest rates, so maybe it'll help a little bit as rates come down, but I think as you start to see the consumer again, tightening their belt, I think vehicle sales are gonna suffer, I just don't know how these people are gonna continue unless they come up with, you know, 10-year financing, which doesn't surprise me if they do. - 50-year bonds, yeah. - Yeah, 50-year bonds, that's right, exactly. Last one on the under the transportation side of things, motor fuel actually unchanged, so, you know, we've had ups and downs of gas prices, et cetera, energy prices also were unchanged overall. So, with medical care, education and communication is some of the other key components of CPI when we return. Let's wrap it up with Kristen Snow in the Right Now Traffic Center, hey, Kristen? It's your show on Newstalk 780KOH with Jason on a Sanchez wealth management, what's again, a pretty good session on the dial side, up 243, NASDAQ up, just five, S&P higher by 21. All right, before we get back to our inflationary discussion, quick reminder, my good friends over at S&W Attractor want me to remind you that they are willing, able to make you a great deal on a Coyote tractor. You know, before we know it, fall is gonna be here, leaves are gonna be falling, you got a lot of projects, you gotta get done ready before winter time, and what do they have the products to help you do that? Great tractors, the Coyote tractor, something that's gonna last you for so many years, and very affordable. And by the way, 0% financing for select models. Stop by and see Stan and the crew, they're located at 4880 East Nylane in Carson City, online at s&wattractor.com. And don't forget that phone number, 882-1225, 882-1225. All right, Jason, this is the last thing I want to go over on the CPI data. So once again, if you just joined us, total CPI up to 10% a month over a month in July, core excluding food and energy up to two, 10% a percent. And again, on a year-over-year basis, CPI was up 2.9%, little decline from June's 3% year-over-year gain, and core CPI up 3.2% for July, year-over-year versus 3.3. So numbers came down pretty nicely or in line. So the question again, has inflation in your life gone down? Well, as you've heard, food and beverages for the month up to 10% of a percent, housing rate equivalent up 4/10, transportation down just a little, so on and so forth. But the last one is, of course, something that everybody talks about, and that is a medical care, medical care down 2/10 of a percent, and education and communication up 2/10 of a percent. So those two numbers kind of wash each other out, but I was surprised to see medical care come down to be honest with you. That number's been on a tear going, if we go back to March, Jason, we're up a half a percent, next month up 4/10, next month up a half, next month up 2/10. This was the first month, and going back to March, that we've actually seen a decline in that one. So again, a little puzzling on why, but glad to see that for a bit. - Yeah, it's a weird stoward, so the insurance costs were coming down, and I'll take the takeover on that one. - Oh, that's a good one, that's a good one. - Oh, that's insane, really. - But yeah, I mean, all this feeds into the volatility that we deal with this part of the year in general, right? This market becomes hyper-focused on items like this. Some of the positive things is, we've got buybacks in place, right? I think starting tomorrow, 90% of the companies that typically are your buyers back are in their buying pretty aggressively. And so that can certainly provide a bit of a tailwind. Interesting data point from Rydholt's wealth was looking on the Twitter earlier today. Their strategies put out a note, and going back to 1989, that if you look at the 25 worst days in the S&P 500, right? Those days where everyone's freaking out Monday, for example, right? If you sold on that day and bought back two weeks later, after things have calmed down, like you freaked out, and then waited two weeks later to buy, you've given up one third of the gains of the S&P since '89. So it shows you, like we've talked about before, those days when the markets are freaking out, and volatility's high, and the VIX spikes, et cetera, those are not typically the days that you want to go run for the hills. Sometimes stand in Pat, or if you have dry powder to be a buyer, and we'll get more of those as we go into the election, there'll be a lot of volatility for sure. Yeah, try not to make, it's hard for folks to do, but try not to make your investment decisions based on whether you wear blue or red paint on your face. It typically doesn't end well, exactly, yeah. - Exactly. I hate real quickly, we got a couple seconds up. Let's hit Cisco, we had earnings numbers after the close, stocks up 5.35% after hours, $2.43, 47, 87 cents a share, estimates are 85 cents, we're a little bit higher, 13.64 billion, but the headline that I'm picking up on Jason, here's another company saying they're gonna cut workforce, yeah, 7% of the global workforce, there's roughly 85,000 employees there as of February, so pretty substantial number. Once again, another tech company getting lean in mean. - Well, one of my very good friends works there, and I'm gonna see him this weekend, so I will get some details. - Sounds good, yeah, give us some insight there. All right, my friend, excellent job as always, we will do it, of course, again tomorrow night on the John Sanchez Show. God bless, have a great evening, we'll see you tomorrow. (somber music) - This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only, and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting john@sansheswealthmanagement.com or 775-800-1801. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through independent financial group LLC, a registered broker, dealer, and investment advisor. 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