Showdown
Showdown Episode 123 8-12-24
I'm Mark Kasen and it is Monday, August the 12th. And there's a funny thing about a campaign that is completely melting down. And disintegrating, you can look at all kinds of ways to try to bring it back. But at some point, there's a certain amount of momentum that's involved in human psychology that you just can't change. And the funny part is that on earth one, almost everybody sees how this is unfolding and realizes that Donald has destroyed everything, not only in the Republican Party, but every possibility that he had to accomplish anything this year. We are 85 days away from the election. And the numbers are just exploding in favor of Kamala Harris. And not only are they exploding, but as an example, just this afternoon, there's a story out about private polling in Ohio. Now Ohio would be expected to go easily for Donald Trump easily. However, the new polls that are privately coming out of Ohio's show, that may not be the case at all. Harrison walls are jumping sharply as they are across the country. And as they have in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. I mean, we know from the public polling that Kamala Harris is ahead by four points in each of those three states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio and Pennsylvania. And the story of course is that, you know, if you win those three, you win the election. You've got 270 if you can get those three states. Now, at the moment, she's only ahead by four, which is within the margin of error. And no one wants to say, well, it's in the bag, but you know what? This momentum is growing by the day. I said weeks ago, almost three weeks now, the Kamala Harris was starting to light the country on fire with enthusiasm. And I don't think there's anybody who doubts that now except for one, one person Donald. Donald says, she has no crowds, but it's all AI generated. I'm surprised he knows what AI is, but I will tell you, they is completely not just in denial. It's way beyond that. The man is desperate. He doesn't know what to do or what to say. For example, over the weekend he was in, in Montana talking about Senator Tester in, in, in Montana and explaining that Tester has the biggest stomach that Trump has ever seen. Now, honestly, besides the cruelty and, and besides just the weirdness of this, the truth is if you don't have some policy to talk about, you're in pretty bad shape. Senator Tester has a habit of winning in Montana, despite the fact that it's a Republican state. And to walk into that state and say nothing, but the demand has the biggest stomach you've ever seen. Well, first of all, that's crazy. And then he even further devolved into this conversation about how Chris Christie is or is not a fat pig. And essentially what he's saying is that Chris Christie's a fat pig, but he can't say it because if he says it, he'll get in trouble. But clearly he does say that everybody is saying everybody, you know, how he does that all the time. People are saying that Chris Christie is a fat pig. What does it have to do with anything? What does it have to do with politics? What does it have to do with policy? What does it have to do with running for president of the United States? If this guy is just on tour and collecting 15, 20, 50, $100 per ticket, well, sure, he can go out and say whatever he wants and think he's being funny and maybe he'll attract a crowd, which by the way, at the moment, he is not attracting. The problem is there's no, there's no point to what he's doing, none whatsoever. There's not even a point that you can rebut. How can you argue with a guy who says that the tester's stomach is the biggest that he's ever seen? How can you argue over whether Chris Christie's a fat pig? We all know that Chris Christie ought to lose some weight for his health. Nobody wants to see anybody suffer from the obese problem he's got, nor do we want to see Donald go down that path either. It's not like Donald is slim Jim, but what are we talking about? This isn't politics. This is insanity. Donald talks about it has done this for years, how he's going to get 25% of the black vote. Nobody knows that's out of the, the, the possible, rumble possibility. Now that's, that's, forget it. It's not happening. It's straight back to what I said, which is 5% now. Would it have been 5% without Kamala Harris? I don't know. Nobody believes that, that Joe Biden was totally down the tubes that was over and that Donald had won the election. I mean, that's what everybody believed. Maybe they're right. Maybe they're not, but we know this since the day that Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic party. This party's been on fire and it grows every single day, hundreds of thousands of people coming out to, to volunteer for Kamala Harris. People who are going to work on phone banks, people who are going to knock on doors, people who are going to donate money, who have donated money to the campaign in record amounts, people who have come out to endorse her, people who have come out to speak in favor of what she's doing, polls that have completely reversed and if even shown in some cases, one or two so far, we'll see how far it goes, that the people who were polled actually support the economic policies of Kamala Harris above those of Donald Trump and I don't even know what those would be because she's about to announce them, but see, it doesn't matter because once people become convinced, there's no stopping them. It's a steamroller effect and Donald is sitting out here, the loser that he has been except for one single time in American politics, one time in 2016, by a sliver of votes. He beat Hillary Clinton one time, that's it. Outside of that, he has lost every single time. He's lost in the midterms. He's lost in the election for president. He's lost in every election where he has endorsed somebody except in the primaries. True, in the primaries, he has managed to convince a small group of maggas to vote against regular Republicans. That has worked, but then those people have been slaughtered at the polls. They don't get elected to anything except JD Vance. JD Vance, he did get and not only did he get him, now he's double triple got him and now that he's got him, he wishes that he never heard of him. In fact, it won't take long before Trump says, JD Vance, I don't know the guy. I don't know what, I don't know anything about him. It's not me, I didn't do it. That's his story all the time. That's his response to every accusation against him. Never heard of it before, it's not me, somebody else. Somebody did it, not Donald Trump, no, not me. This is the guy who thinks this can get 25% of the black vote. He thinks he's going to win the women's vote. He thinks he's going to win the young people's vote. Do you know the young people are coming out in gigantic numbers right now in support of Kamala Harris? Not surprising. They said all along, they didn't want Donald Trump versus Joe Biden. They didn't want the two old guys now. They got a young person and they're coming out in gigantic numbers to support her. As I've said from the beginning, she is so well spoken. She's got that perfect pitch in her speaking ability as a politician. And I know I said this to somebody, good friend of mine about a week ago. And he said, oh, that's crazy. Kamala's terrible and she can't speak and nobody likes her. And I said, I don't know where you are. I guess you're on earth too, because on earth one, this is, this is on fire with enthusiasm. You know, it's, it's easy to, to make these claims, which Donald does. Everybody's against me, this, the system is rigged. Kamala is unconstitutional. I mean, as a person, she's unconstitutional. Her existence is unconstitutional. He's gone on and on with this thing. He's saying he's making claims that are so crazy that you can only say that it's complete desperation. And you can argue against Kamala Harris. You can say, oh, she doesn't laugh right or she doesn't talk right or there's something weird about her. But see, that's, it doesn't work when the momentum is there in the other direction. The story about weird does not attach to Kamala. It's attached to JD Vance and now to Donald Trump as well. They are seen as weird. Now, you can argue with me and you can say, I, I'm going to vote against all that. Well, that's fine. Do it. That's, that's okay. Do it. But understand this, there's a steamroller out there and you can't stop it, no matter how you feel about it or, or, or, or what you want to do or, or, or, or what you want to say, I mean, it just, it doesn't resonate with anybody. The public is where it is. Public psychology is an amazing thing. I've been in markets for 50 years and I promise you, something about public psychology that you just cannot push back in another direction. Once it gets going, it moves big time until it just explodes. And of course in markets that ends normally in panics when people are, are so fearful and they sell everything and then they turn around and look at each other and wonder what they did. Well, I can tell you right now, like it or not. These people are all headed in one direction and that is to vote for Kamala Harris. Now, will they like it, will they, will they like what they get? I think they will because first of all, they're going to get stability. Secondly, they're going to get the United States continuing to be the leader in the world, in the world of international relations. The United States is going to be the number one power on the planet Earth, certainly on Earth one. I can tell you that. You can see already what's happening to Putin. Ukraine is not only fighting back against Putin, but now that they've got weapons again, they are attacking Putin in Russia and they're having an effect. And I can tell you right now, all of these things together add up into this momentum. Now, there is one thing coming and I wouldn't worry about it from the standpoint of what's going to happen to Kamala Harris. I think she's going to know exactly what to do and I think she and Joe Biden are doing it right now. They are moving United States military force into the Middle East. They're moving ships. They're moving everything that we've got, apparently submarines have been moved. I mean, they're putting everything over next to Iran and Lebanon and they're telling that part of the world do not go crazy on Israel because there will be a battle here and everybody says they don't want to do it, but at the same time, Hezbollah and Iran are threatening to do it. They say they don't want to do it, but they're about to do it. So we will see, I mean, the, the, the talk is is that, well, first of all, they said it might happen last week. Now they're saying tonight, none of us know the answer to it, but I know this Joe Biden is not going to back off and he is the president of the United States and he's now working in a different sort of way with Kamala Harris because obviously this will affect the presidential campaign as well. So she's in it, but she's in it anyway. She was in on it, but now she's really in on it and from a policy standpoint, she'll be defending it, whatever it is they have to do and they will do something. If Hezbollah and Iran open up gigantic attacks on Israel tonight, it's just the way it is. And you know, I've said this so many times and, and I actually feel sorry for the countries in the Middle East who want to continue to fight against Israel. I mean, I, I don't want to see Israel beat up at all. Of course I support Israel, but here's the thing. I also support the rights of the Palestinians. I want the Palestinians to have freedom and I want them to have the opportunity to, to create wealth. I want them to live in a fair and decent society over there. I want them to live next to Israel with respect for Israel and Israel showing respect for them. I, I firmly believe that that's the only way to solve that problem. Unfortunately, those people who think that they can beat Israel, well, they're dreaming because they have to beat both Israel and the United States and it's impossible. The first place if they just had to go against Israel alone, Israel has enough firepower to blow up the entire planet. Don't forget about that. They've got a hundred nuclear weapons. They can do tremendous damage like more damage than anybody could sustain. The planet would be destroyed. And that's why the United States is over there to step in the middle and say, look, we'll blow you up, but we don't need to use nuclear weapons to do it. So you better back off in that the reality is we've seen over 80 years that everybody who has attacked Israel has lost. Each time they do it and they lose. Some countries have agreed to take money and to get out of the fight. The biggest, of course, the billion dollars a year that goes to Egypt. We pay Egypt a billion dollars a year and they no longer participate in this madness. But this policy of the United States won't go away. It will be here to protect the entire planet because the craziness of Donald Trump is nowhere near the switch. I can tell you right now, if you put Donald Trump in charge of any of this and remembering the fact that Donald except for the election of 2016 has lost everything in his life, everything. All the way down to the casinos, the fake university, the Thai company, the state company, every fraudulent thing that he's ever done has gone straight down the tubes. Nothing works. So believe me, if you want to follow a foreign policy of Donald Trump's, that would somehow save the world, and by the way, you know what he's saying right now. This is what he also says at these crazy rallies that he's at. He says, you know, we're going into World War three, Biden and Kamala Harris are starting World War three. Well, let me tell you this, if they're starting World War three, if that's really happening, don't worry about this upcoming election, there won't be one. World War three won't end in a way that will allow us to have an election. At the end of World War three, will either be dead or scavenging for food somewhere. It's just ridiculous. World War three is an impossibility. It's unacceptable. And everybody in the world knows it. You can't win World War three. And that's why it's never been fought. And that's why it never will be fought. And that's why Kamala Harris and Joe Biden won't fight it. They're just trying to convince some very radical people that it would be in their best interest to calm it down over there and chances are great that they will, including Vladimir Putin. You know, Vladimir Putin has threatened month after month to annihilate the United States with nuclear weapons. Why hasn't he done it yet? He hasn't done it because he can't do it. It's a suicide mission and he knows it. And so do all the people around him and so does everybody in the United States, which is why I guess we don't take it seriously anymore. Back in the 1960s, when all this was threatened, believe me, everybody was scared, ready to go hide in a bomb shelter somewhere and it wouldn't have done any good because you're going to blow up the planet anyway. But today, pretty much everybody understands that you can't do it and you won't do it. But Donald Trump at his speeches warns that that's exactly what's being done by Joe Biden in Kamala Harris that they are ripping up everything on the planet and moving us straight into World War three based on what? Based on nothing, based on his attempt to frighten you. That's all. That's all he's ever done. Try to scare people, tries to scare you about World War three, tries to scare you about inflation, tries to scare you about the economy. You know, it's a funny thing about the economy. Our interest rates are currently five percent on the short end, four and a half percent or so on the long end. That's up from extremely low numbers a couple of years ago. And all of that is because we have inflation and when you do, the markets always push up interest rates and the Fed has worked with markets to force those rates higher to push down inflation and it's worked. It always works. It has to work. There's no other way around it because if the cost of borrowing money is high, then people stop borrowing money. It's pretty simple. But we still do have some economic problems and the question is what are we going to do to address the problems? Are they world ending? I don't think they're even close to that. The United States is the strongest country economically on the planet, also militarily. But economically we are. 30 trillion dollar gross domestic product. That's huge, bigger than anybody else, 20 some billion over in Europe. All the European countries together, the EU, that's like comes to like 56 trillion. And then there's China with 17 trillion and Russia with one trillion. Well, it's pretty obvious what a great country this is economically hasn't been destroyed by Joe Biden. In fact, in many ways, it's been strongly enhanced, giant oil production at the highest levels in the history of both the United States and the rest of the world as well. We produce more oil than any country in the world. And we have been oil independent since the Obama administration. Look it up. I've already put the statistics up here. I've already shown the charts. So, you know, there's no sense in, you know, denying the numbers. They are what they are trying to get one thing to work here, but oh, there we go. There we go. Okay. So let's see what I have here. Okay, in Arizona, Michael is saying that on Friday, the place was packed and rocking. And I know he was there. He said all along that he was going there and he said, "Don't worry about AI. It's not even close. Let's see." Okay, no, that's all. But Michael, of course, you're right. And everybody knows that Donald is crazy. And everybody knows that he's now desperate. And really, this has taken on this tremendous momentum that just can't be stopped. I mean, nobody can stop it. There's no conversation that can end it. But what I'm going to get to when I finish the business part here in two seconds is I want to talk about the military record of the vice presidential nominee, Tim Walls. We'll get to that in about three or four minutes. The first thing, though, is great dinner available tonight, like every night, at Wednesdays, 18,000 Chesterfield Airport Road, and you can go there and start with the wings and go to the smoked meat and think about the hamburgers and cheeseburgers and patty melts, all of which, I mean, it all sounds great to me. I'm just not a wing person, but everything else I love. And I can tell you too, they've got a pizza, really good, excellent pizza. They've got what I love, which is the baby back ribs. They've got onion rings and I really, I love onion rings. I could eat onion rings forever. They've got salad, they've got great drinks, and I happen to go there and drink the iced tea. I love their iced tea. It's really good. 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That is the St. Louis suit company in Clayton. So I'm listening to all this talk about Tim Walz's military record. And I remember back very well to what was done, of course, to John Kerry, but I remember even further back than that because they had this fight over Bill Clinton as well. And Tim Walz is none of them, he is not even close to them. I mean, this is a man who has served 24 years in the National Guard. Now, if you say that the National Guard doesn't count, then I guess you've got a whole other discussion going on and a whole bunch of other people who are not going to be very happy at all because I don't think that's how this story works. But I will say that personally, I don't know much about this in any way, because I was a 1960s draft resistor, anti-war activist, I was a hippie radical in the 1960s and 70s long hair and all, well, I don't have any hair anymore, sorry. But the point is, I don't have any ability to defend the military either way, but I will say this much about it. At the end of the Vietnam War, when people came back after fighting there and many, 58,000 died, I was not one who stood up against the veterans. From the very first day that any of that business began, I thought it was terrible. You know, there were those of us who said, don't fight, don't go, don't help the American military machine to run wild through Asia. It doesn't make any sense. They're lying about why it started in the first place and we just shouldn't be involved. There's no domino theory that's really in place here. All the countries are not going to fall and on top of that, the Russians aren't coming. And believe me, that's what people thought. The Russians were coming. They believe that there were agents over here who were selling all of our secrets all over. As it turns out, probably the biggest agent that we've ever heard of is Donald Trump. That guy took all of our secrets, hit him in his bathroom and is now fighting the government over all of this and wanting immunity from what he did. Well, that is going to have to be sorted out as well and the way things are headed, poor Donald may end up having to pay with some jail time for all of that. But that's a separate issue too, because here's the point, who decides whether your military service is worthwhile? Who does? Because there's a guy who has just jumped up from Minnesota, he's an attorney there, some kind of a lieutenant colonel at the time, and he says that, yes, Tim Walz broke all of his agreements, never did what he was supposed to do. He was nothing but trouble and we were glad to be rid of him after 24 years. They were glad to be rid of him. You know, this is such nonsense. People with a political grudge one way or the other do this on both sides, on these military records, and I can tell you right now, personally, I don't listen to any of it. I understand there may be some people who do, and there may be some who will vote one way or the other as a result of what someone has said, but you know what, there are people coming out on both sides of all of this. Someone says his military record was excellent. Someone says his military record was horrible. The man spent 24 years in the military, explained to me how that 24 years could suddenly be so horrific. He left in order to run for Congress, and he won. He has served the country in political office since then, and as far as I know, the people who work around him are not all in prison, like Donald Trump's people, everybody who Donald Trump has ever come across has either ended up in prison or who has gotten close to prison or is on their way to prison, add them up. It's a ton of people. Tim Walz has got nobody, nobody around him went to prison. He hasn't gone to prison. All they can say is, some guy from Minnesota, some lawyer there says that he and some others like him were glad that Tim Walz was gone. Well, they never told anybody at the time, did they? Suddenly, they're glad he was gone. You know what? Maybe they didn't like him. Maybe they were glad he was gone, but not one person can be pointed to that surrounded Tim Walz who ended up in prison. We can name the Donald Trump people, first of all, in prison, and then secondly, currently under indictment. There's so many that I can't remember them all, I'm not even going to try. There's no point in it, but you know how many there are. So, really, somebody going to sit here and try to figure out what Tim Walz's military record is in order to try to, what they want to do is they want to derail the momentum. That's what they want to do. But you know what? You don't even have to argue about it because they can't do it. Once something like this gets going, you can have 9,000 excuses for why it shouldn't be happening, but you can't stop it. I really, I've started out today showing and explaining how this is so similar to the psychology of markets, and it really is. I can tell you that once a market starts to move in a direction, you can come out and say a thousand things against the trend. It doesn't work. Those trends get going and they can never be stopped, so people can just talk, but they're not going to get anywhere, because this is in motion with unbelievable momentum. Greg says, "Mark, try to keep up." Records case was dropped. No, it is not dropped. That is not what happened, Greg. That may be what they tell you on Earth, too. Let me explain what happened. I'd have thought you would have known this. Aileen Cannon dismissed the case. That dismissal was sent to the district court as with all the other mistakes that she made, and each time she was reversed, but not just reversed, she was eviscerated when she was reversed, and this time it's going to be the same thing, Greg. She's going to be reversed, and when it is, she's probably going to be removed anyway. However, it's more than that, because there's a whole thing that is being put together by Jack Smith with regard to that entire mess in Florida at Mar-a-Lago, and they are coming back with a vengeance, because the one thing about her dismissal that was a giant mistake is that she dismissed it before it got to the jury, and she actually warned Donald not to bring a tour that way, because she did explain that if it got dismissed before the jury, then it could be refiled. Yes, he's going to refile it, Greg. Yes, and remember this, with what's happening now, this steamroller right now that's wiping out everything that has anything to do with Donald Trump, you can believe that he's going to be held to account for everything that he did in Florida, for everything he did in Washington, D.C., for everything that he did in Georgia, as well as cases that are now underway in Arizona and in some other states as well. This is far from over, far from over, and the reality is that, you know, Donald could have stopped this. You didn't have to be destroyed this way politically. You would have had a chance to win, and Donald would have had a chance. All he had to do is act like a human being, nothing more. When he got his ear shot off, if he had just used that sympathy, which was there for about a week, and the pictures, and then he came out and said, you know, people are asking me to act nicer, and if he had done that, they'd probably have a different world. But instead, he went back to the same lunacy, and then Joe Biden turned everything upside down with Kamala Harris, and suddenly, the snowball started running down a hill and picking up speed by the day. Every day, this becomes more powerful. Greg says, if it fits your narrative, I don't know, something about the judgments, but if you don't like the other way, I'm not sure what he's saying. I think what he's trying to say is that I'm only grabbing onto the things that fit what I believe. But here's the problem, Greg, whenever you or I believe, and you're a stock market guy, the trend is all the counts, and if the trend is going in the direction of Kamala Harris, it doesn't matter what I say, does it, because you can't stop it once it gets moving. You remember irrational exuberance, I mean, that was a good attempt to stop the markets from going to levels that would be so dangerous that you'd end up with a crash. But guess what? It was irrational, it was overly exuberant. The market did go to levels that set off a crash, and then it crashed. You can try to stop these things all you want, but once they get going with real power, there isn't a thing you can do to stop it. I can tell you that it fits what I want to see in the world, and it certainly does. And if it fits, then it does. I can't stop it. I can't make it go any faster. It's already going as fast as anything imaginable, there's really no political campaign comparable in our time to this one as far as the momentum that's in place. There's nothing here that would even closely compare to something in the past. It is true that Dukakis was ahead by 18 points a few months before the election and he lost. But even then, the momentum wasn't as obvious. You couldn't feel it the way it is in this election. Greg says, "What are you going to do if Trump wins?" Well, you know what, Greg? What are you going to do if the Dow Jones hits 5,000? You can ask any question. You could say anything you want, but the reality is the numbers, what's happening on the planet, what people are doing, where people are going to volunteer, who people are believing in when you listen to the exit, I'm sorry, not the exit polls, the groups that they bring together, that they do the polling, they bring people together and they ask them questions, they interview them. When you go listen to those, everybody's talking against Trump and for Kamala Harris. People who are saying they were undecided are saying they're voting for Kamala Harris. And this is just what's happening. It's like almost overnight, it's three weeks, and all these numbers have changed dramatically. Young people, for Joe Biden, it was down to like maybe a seven-point advantage for the Democrats, suddenly it's back up over 20% and growing. Young people said they wanted a young new candidate and that's what they got. So you know, you can ask all the, what if questions that you want? What if, what if I walk out of the studio and the sun explodes? What if, but it's not going to happen. You know, what are you going to do if, I don't know, it doesn't make any sense. You can always ask that question, what are you going to do? And what I'm going to do is what I always do. Look at what's going on and try to make reasonable judgments. But I can tell you this, Donald Trump was an accident waiting to happen. He has lost every election since 2016, which he won by a sliver. And that's the other thing. He's actually lost elections. People that he supports lose issues that he supports lose. He has lost himself and then claimed he won and then tried to overthrow the United States government. So you can ask, what am I going to do if, but what I'm saying to you is look at the record. This has been a losing person since 2016. Now that's politically, he's lost in the courts. He's lost in all of his business ventures. The only thing that worked was Mark Burnett. Mark Burnett made that silly show work for 10 years. People watched it and it has suckered the country into the belief that Donald Trump has some kind of superpowers. But the truth is he's destroyed everything he's touched from apartment buildings where he discriminated against black people with his father all the way to casinos that all went out of business to fraudulent enterprises that all were shut down and then fined. And then he was fined $500 million by the state of New York because he was ripping off insurance companies and banks. And then on top of it, he raped a woman, has to pay her $90 million. Greg, what are you talking about? What if, what if everything this guy has done has been wrong and what if one thing that he did later turned out to be right? What if, but the other side is what if it isn't? What if everything is just like it always is, always a loser because that's what Donald is. He is a loser. The superpower Trump has is that media just keeps him relevant even if he's not relevant. You know something? This is all the kind of stuff that was said years ago, people crossing their fingers and hoping that they had something that would propel the Republican party back into some kind of a, an overall leadership role in the world or, you know, in the United States. It's not happening. It's just not happening. You can sit here and wish for it. You can sit here and come up with rationalizations for how it could happen or would or should or might, but it never happens. Instead, what keeps happening is the man keeps losing and right now, no joke. He's losing his mind. Listen to him. Listen to what he's saying. Listen to his talk about senators with big stomachs and governors being fat pigs. This is not the kind of thing that wins an election for a person. This is the kind of thing that gets you right where this man has been all along in a courtroom with a defamation case against him. So no, people sitting here and talking it up are not going to suddenly put the brakes on Kamala Harris. Kamala has come through this weekend with gigantic fundraising, enormous crowds, new policy recommendations, and believe me, she's talking about things like childcare tax credits, which were put in place by Joe Biden when he first got elected, removed by the Republican Congress and it's all coming back. It's extremely popular because people all over the United States can't afford to take care of their kids when they go to work. Use your head. Donald is sunk, but here's what you can rely on. You can rely on wenties. You can rely on the St. Louis suit company. You can rely on jewels on Hampton and you can rely on me being back tomorrow. I'm Mark casein. This is showdown.