What's going on, guys? It's Nick here, back on that video. Today, we're taking a look at ESPN ADPs, talking about the best values on that platform. Now, ESPN is very unique this season. So there's a lot more strategy we need to think about. You have to think about strategy, no matter what platform you are drafting. On right, strategy is very important. You can't just pick the best players, you got to pick the best players, while also doing good, strategy-wise. We're going to go over 12 players in the early and middle rounds. I guess 11 in the early and middle rounds won a little bit later on. None of them are running backs. We will touch on some running backs in the very later rounds players that are being drafted, like basically undrafted outside the top 250 players that we want to keep in mind for our final pick. But most of the video, we're going to talk about 12 players, early and middle rounds. None of them are running back. For whatever reason, ESPN has pushed up running backs an insane amount this season. So, it's not until we get to the later rounds that we see any sort of good value. The thing is, you do still have to draft a running back. As much as we love wide receivers this season, you love hammering out that position just given the certainty, the upside we have, and a lot of these really high-end wide receivers, we still need to draft running backs if we're building championship teams. In my opinion, the best thing you can do on ESPN this season is start off running back running back. I know it feels like we're going back in time, going back like seven years where everyone on all platforms was doing that, and it's going to feel kind of gross given how well early round wide receiver did last season. But again, we're going over 12 elite values on ESPN. None of them are running backs. At a bare minimum, bare minimum here, you have to draft a running back in the first two rounds in ESPN. Even if you have to force it, even if you take, we're going to talk about one wide receiver going around one, it's a really strong value. I would probably take them at that spot or one spot later. If you end up doing that, you basically have to force running back in round two. If you take two wide receivers to start off to a draft, you're then forcing yourself to say, "Okay, even if those two were good values, now we're in the middle rounds," or this approaching the middle rounds, and you have to attack running back at a spot where wide receiver is insane value in running back or terrible value. You're just locking in okay value and then bad value instead of getting okay value and then amazing value. We're shooting for amazing value here. Do not force yourself in a bad spot. You have to be taking running backs early on. It's not like we're out here drafting Kyron Williams before Justin Jefferson. I'm on the right side. We're still doing those wide receivers ahead of these second round running backs. But I promise if we just lean towards running back early, if it's even remotely close, do it on ESPN, there's going to be some good values. What's up with us? Who are these amazing guys? I mentioned one in round one. It is Justin Jefferson. In round one, his ADP is eighth overall. If you can get him at that eight spot, that nine spot, especially remember, there are eight players that are pretty clearly the top eight players this season. Christian McCaffrey in some order. Christian McCaffrey, Tyree Kill, CD Lam, Bijon Robinson, Breeze Hall, Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson, and Amman Ross, same problem. Which is probably the order I would take them in in a lot of formats. If you can get Justin Jefferson at eight, if you get Justin Jefferson at nine, I would maybe throw this out and say, okay, force yourself to take a running back in round two. Justin Jefferson, some people might be off this season because you have likely Sam Darnold for, at this point, most of the season, and then McCarthy after that, people are going to look at that and be like, oh, that's not amazing. Justin Jefferson is awesome. He's the best wide receiver in the NFL. This coaching staff is awesome. They have Nick Mullins from like 360 yards a game. Like, nearly, I think it was two out of four starts Nick Mullins last season with 395 plus passing yards. Like, it's a great offensive environment. Sam Darnold has talent. He's been put in terrible situations. I don't think he's an amazing quarterback, but he has talented enough to get the ball to Justin Jefferson. Most humans on this planet are, and then, you know, with the great coaching staff as well. Again, cool taking him at eight or nine. Great value on ESPN. But the other ones are insane. So that's like, that's a good value. It's a very strong pick at eight or nine. But again, if you don't have eight or nine, I really, really, really want to be drafting running back in probably the first two rounds because of all these players. First up, Marvin Harrison Jr. Average industry ADP, 16th overall, my ranking, 15th overall, ESPN ranking, 22nd overall. So this would be one, you know, 22nd overall. Maybe you start off with McCaffrey or Beijon or Breeze Hall. You get 22 and you're like, okay, technically Nick said try to start off running back running back. But we're at the turn here. You can take Marvin Harrison Jr. at the late second and then just take a running back in the early third round. Or if you wanted to do hero, you got McCaffrey. You can take Harrison and someone else after that a wide receiver. I'd also be fine doing that. But again, ideally I want 200 max, I would say 200 max in the first three rounds again because of all the other players we'll talk about here. But Marvin Harrison Jr. is awesome. He's the best prospect this season. I mentioned the other video. My model had him at the top, 13% worst prospect for Malik Neighbors. And then 4% worst in that for Roman Dunes. From Marvin Harrison Jr. is one of the best prospects we've seen in a while. He's the best prospect at minimum in the last three years. Better prospect than all those wide receivers we went two years ago. You know, like Garrett Wilson, Chris O'Lavé, Drake London, who we're going to get to in a second. Better prospect than them. Substance of situation where they needed someone, right? They needed that just like alpha wide receiver. They got him now. Good quarterback playing Kyler. Like everything is going to work out for Marvin Harrison Jr. this season. And I think he's not going earlier. On ESPN, it's ridiculous. But he's not going earlier even in general because rookie, so people have hesitations. And then also, what? He didn't do the combine, right? We haven't seen camp hype really around Marvin Harrison Jr. They're just being a little bit quiet on him. But I promise you, he's going to come out there and dominate. Great pick at 22nd overall, just at that two, three turn in a 12-team league. I guess in a 10-team league that would already be into round three. Drake London, after that, average industry ADP 24th overall. My ranking 20th overall, ESPN 34th overall. And I get it. I understand not wanting Atlanta Falcons. Just like players on that team. I just given what Drake London pits, Beijon have done to us in recent seasons. It's a different team, right? They're going to throw the ball a ton more. Those targets are going to be significantly more accurate. They're going to win more games. They're going to score more points. They're going to be on the field sustaining drives longer. That's more yards. That's more touchdowns and more efficiency. Everything is going up, up, up, up for this passing attack, especially. And we know Drake London is a good player. My model did think he was a little bit overrated as a prospect when he was drafted. I thought he was overdrafted going to the Falcons, but overdrafted in the sense that he was still obviously a first round wide receiver. He's still a great talent. He's still someone that can command. I would say this season, probably not like a 27-28% target share. But if he ended up with a 25% target share this season, it wouldn't be shocked at all. We know Kurt Cousins has no problems hyper focusing on a player and look at the depth chart behind them. I know, again, they have Beijon, they have Pitts. But look behind that. Darnell Mooney. Rondell Moore's already done. So you have Ray Ray McCloud as number three. Ray Ray McCloud as the number three wide receiver on this team. He's going to get a ton of targets. Drake London, like, it's a no-brainer at 34th overall. You're entering the 3/4 turn. No-brainer. Drake London. Great pick there. Player's 4-5. Both Brandon Yook and Debo Samuel are great values. And I don't even care what happens with the trade here. Obviously, like, if you got traded, Debo Samuel is the value of all values on ESPN. But even if that doesn't happen, they're both exceptional picks. Average in the industry is 27th and 30th overall for IUC and Debo. My rankings have them 25th and 27th. He has been 41st and 42nd. Imagine being able to take Debo Samuel 42nd overall and then are you getting traded. And again, even if it doesn't happen, they should not be going 41st and 42nd overall. All outcomes here are great. Obviously, the peak outcome for Debo Samuel is that you're getting traded away. But it doesn't even matter. Even if they both stay on this team, even if I get traded to the Steelers, these are good values for these two players. Exceptional wide receivers, exceptional weekly upside. We know their roles are locked in. We know their target shares are locked in. We just know with 100% certainty that these are phenomenal players who are going to have good seasons unless they get hurt. And you always want to throw out injuries because every single player in the NFL could get hurt. Great, great, great picks. And at 41-42, you don't even have to worry about any sort of risk with the trades. Cooper Cup. After that, average and industry is 35th overall. My ranking is 22nd overall. You guys know I love Cooper Cup this season. ESPN 45th overall player. That's a crazy value. Again, I'm not concerned at all about the Puka injury. The Puka injury is not why I'm ranking Cooper Cup. Hi, it's that I genuinely think Cooper Cup could out target Puka Nakua this season. So I want to make them a lot closer in the rankings. Cooper Cup's immensely talented. He had one of, if not the best seasons ever, then he opens the next season half of it. Honestly, on pace for an even better season, then he has a high ankle sprain. This is the rest of the year banged up all last year. He hasn't been healthy since having the Triple Crown run and then setting up for another Triple Crown run. The next season, something that you just don't see very often. Just had a few injuries since then, but he's good to go now. Like, could he get hurt? Yes. Is he probably a higher chance of getting hurt than a lot of other receivers? Yes. But at 45th overall, who cares? We're entering a part of the draft. Like you're entering, what, the four five turn? You guys all know I've talked a million times about drop off in success rate. Round one and round two, almost a lock. You're getting a start with the player. Round three, round four. More of a lock, about 70%. Round five, round six, cliff. He's approaching the range where the success rate cliff is. And so opportunity cost goes way down. Literally, if he stays healthy, you're getting someone who is probably a wide receiver one in fantasy. You can't say that about very many players. And he has the upside to be the number one overall player. In terms of value, you can get a 45th overall for it. Jalen Waddle, after that, average in industry is 36 overall. My ranking 29th overall, yes, again, 49th overall. Obviously, amazing value there. Baked in upside of, Tyree Kill, if Tyree were to ever suffer an injury. Never want to hope for that. But if it were to happen, obviously, Jalen Waddle is a weekly what? Top five, wide receiver, he'd have so much value. And even if that doesn't happen, he's a very, very good player. Battled through injuries a little bit recently, but not a player we expect to be banged up, having a good camp, and you just know with the offense, right? You know the quarterback play is there, you know, the coaching staff in Miami is going to put these players in position to succeed. That's kind of a term we use a lot with different coaching staffs. And it's like, well, yeah, obviously don't all coaching staffs do that. No, it's actually crazy how many coaching staffs do not or like actively put their players in position to fail, just lining them up in the wrong spots, not scheming them open, not giving them easy routes, making them win by themselves all the time. Jalen Waddle can win on his own. He can win deep down field in his own. But what's great about the dolphins is he doesn't need to do that all the time. They will scheme him open. And when you scheme open a player of his speed, his skill level on that sort of offense, the weekly upside literally is 175 yards in three touchdowns. He can win you weeks, he can like on his own. And that's something we very much like in fantasy is, you know, maybe sometimes really every player is a floor of zero. But maybe sometimes Waddle will have a little bit of a lower floor. But at 49th overall, you're not as concerned about that floor when it comes with the ceiling to like if he hits, doesn't even matter what everyone else in your team does. You just win that week. That gains a lot of value for him. And again, baits in upside with Tyree Kill. Great, great, great floor play. I think at 49th overall, they're basically drafting him at like worst case scenario, along as long as he stays relatively healthy. That's like the worst case scenario where he's going to actually end up. So you always want to draft players where their floor is basically where you're taking him. That's the case on ESPN for Jalen Waddle. I'm Marty Cooper after that. Average industry is 53rd overall, my ranking 63rd overall. So as you guys know, I'm a little bit off of Marty Cooper this season. But on ESPN, 68th overall, whenever it's hearing me talk semi negatively about a player, which I've done at times for Marty Cooper, just knowing that Marty Cooper has never been a league winner, never really had a season where you're like, you know, had to have a Marty Cooper. Even last season, he actually provided a negative playoff rate over expectation, even beating his ADP in a points-per-game basis. He just, he never has that ultimate ceiling. Could it happen this season? Certainly, right? I mean, if Deshawn Watson is actually still good, which I have doubts for, but if he actually is still good, or if they bench him and they go with James Winston, who we know is a gunslinger, we know is going to throw the ball a ton, honestly, I would prefer that. If they actually announced like James Winston started, which they won't do, obviously, but if like, you know, Watson got hurt and he got Winston as a starter and they're going to throw the ball as much as they are and play as fast as they are. You have Winston at quarterback, yeah, I'm taking a Marty Cooper and every draft. So that upside is still baked in. And again, the upside that Deshawn Watson is just better this season. But yeah, like Cleveland is going to throw the ball a ton. They're going to play super fast. Like, it is set up really well for Marty Cooper. And whenever you hear me talk semi-negatively again about a player, and then they become the top player in the rankings, you want to take them. And I know that sounds weird, but it's like, I'm baking in my negative thoughts about a Marty Cooper into 63rd overall. So if you get to 68th overall, or that's average, if you get to 72nd overall, Marty Cooper's top player in the board, top player in the rankings, it makes him a phenomenal pick because I'm saying, given my negative thoughts, he is still the best player on the board. That means that like, I'm baking in all this negative outcome. And we're saying, this is where I think is going to happen on the low end. And you can take them there. That means if I'm wrong, that it probably means you got a league winner. Always want to do that. So again, if you hear me talk bad about a player and you're like, oh, Nick doesn't love him, but they become the top player by ADP and the top player in my rankings, you want to draft them because if I'm wrong, it's an amazing pick. And if I'm right, it's still the best pick on the board. Kyler, next up, average in the industry, 66th overall, my ranking, also 66th overall ESPN, 76th overall. Not like a crazy value, but I like Kyler Murray this season. I've mentioned, obviously, they got Merma Harrison Jr. It kind of short up the running game. You know, they have James Conner, but now they have Trey Benson behind him, who if Conner went down, they're not going to be like terrible on the ground. I do still think Conner is the start of the season, but Trey McBride in year two finally going to utilize Greg Dorch. Greg Dorch is an awesome wide receiver. And someone we will talk about for one of those late round flyers. Finally going to use him. He's going to be highly efficient. Michael Wilson taking a step forward this season, adding Merma Harrison Jr. You know, like replacing just absolute scrubs that they had last season. I mean, really Michael Wilson was like their top receiver last season, because you know, Marquis Brown was like not really healthy for a large part. He missed, you know, a huge chunk late in the season. For a lot of the time, it was Michael Wilson, which is obviously not great. And for virtually all the time with Kyler last season, you had that. And then also Kyler just wasn't fully healthy last season, right? He couldn't make cuts like normal, make sense. He was coming off the torn ACL. They didn't want him to be coming full throttle. Finally making all these cuts, finally 100% healthy, huge upgrades on offense. He has a ton of upside. And honestly, if you look at Kyler's career in the games where he's actually fully healthy, not in the injury report, he's like one of the best fantasy quarterbacks of all time. Like if he can stay healthy this season and hit like an 80th, 90th percentile outcome, he could dominate. And so if you can also get him at the discount on ESPN, that is a great, great, great pick to make. Christian Kirk, average in the industry, 69th overall, my ranking, 60th overall, ESPN, 80p, 87th overall. I haven't been huge in the Christian Kirk this season. I would say on underdog, I probably drafted him in like 5% a league. So if your average is 8.3%, I'm a little bit behind average in drafting Christian Kirk. Now his ADP has shifted down a little bit, so I'm getting a little bit more right now. But it hasn't shifted down to 87th overall. That's such a sick value for him. I get people's concern, and honestly, this is why I haven't taken a ton of them, as I get the concerns around Gabe Davis and around Brian Thomas Jr., right? Two players who are clearly outside wide receivers. That's probably going to kick Christian Kirk into the slot more often. So when they go to two wide receivers, that's there is a risk that it's mostly Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis on the outside. And if you're not on the field, you can't get receptions. But I think they know, like, if we just started the season right now, Christian Kirk is the best wide receiver. So I don't know that that's actually going to happen, that he's not going to be on the field in a lot of two wide receiver sets. I just feel like they're going to get him on the field. He's the best receiver. We know what Gabe Davis is. I know Gabe is getting some hype right now, but we know Gabe Davis is not that good of a wide receiver. We know Brian Thomas Jr. is a great deep threat. We don't know if he can develop into like the consistent, you know, man beater on the outside. And if they're actually going to open the season with Gabe and Brian Thomas Jr. as they're one and they're two and they open two wide receiver sets. I don't really know how open they're going to get consistently. And so I feel like they might start off with that or something, but then realize that like Gabe should not be your number two on the outside. Maybe they start off a little bit inefficient and then throw a curve back in there. Or maybe they just start the season with him on the outside and people can stop panicking. But I think he's still going to have a strong role in this offense. I think he is still their best wide receiver. He is still clearly the one I would want to take first, what 87th overall. That's a great guy. Roma Dunesay, average in the industry is 90th overall. For me, he's 81st overall ESPN ranking, 113th overall. I've given my take a lot on this bear's offense and that if I were just straight up drafting, it is DJ Moore, then Keenan Allen, then Roma Dunesay in terms of rankings. But in terms of value for how early you have to take DJ Moore, knowing that Roma Dunesay can be sitting there at 113. A Dunesay is still my favorite pick. Phenomenal wide receiver. I mentioned before, Marvin Harris Jr. best prospect this season. 13% worst prospect for Malik Neighbors. Only 4% worse from Malik Neighbors down to Roma Dunesay. But there's a significant ADP drop when you're making that change. He's a great wide receiver. People are going to realize that. They're going to watch this kid play in like week three, week four, week five. They're going to be like, oh my goodness. This is a player who is clearly capable of being like a second or a third round pick next season. Do I think it happens in week one, two, three? I'm not sure. Like honestly, I just don't know the answer to that. I think that he's a good enough deep threat to where like maybe in one of those weeks, he can just hit deep and keep people can kind of see it earlier on. But I think as we work our way to the middle part of the season, as we work our way to the later portion, he's going to really, really start to break out. And if you can just hold on to him at that 113 spot, man, is he going to really, really provide our turn on that investment. Final player before we get to the later round options is Jared Goff, which is kind of a later round option. It probably shouldn't be averaging the industry is 117. I have a 125 ESPN 144. So this is one where you guys know, I want to top 11 quarterback this season. That ends with Jaden Daniels, the clear top 11. After that, you're probably double dipping. You're probably waiting a little bit to take those options. And Jared Goff is a great option to wait for, especially at 144 on ESPN. They play a ton of dome games this season. It's 13th of the first 14 weeks. It's 14 of 17 weeks overall in a dome that's going to lead to way better passing environments, because we know we're not going to have to worry about weather way higher game totals. That means more touchdowns. That means more competitive opponents pushing you to be a little bit more aggressive. He's already someone that throws for a ton of yards, ton of touchdowns. He's not going to do anything with his legs. And that's why he's not in that top 11. But for where you're getting him, rock solid value. Definitely someone I'd love to double dip on. If you want to take a shot on a quarterback, maybe you want to take a shot. Honestly, Sam Darnell, I know that sounds weird. If you want to take Jared Goff and Sam Darnell, you start golf in week one. You start him for the early part of the season. But what if Sam Darnell goes out there and does like what Nick Mullins was doing, throwing it over 300 yards a game into this offensive system that is just so, so, so good. You take a chance on that and then you trade one of them away. You could double dip on, maybe you want to take Purdy. Maybe you want to take Caleb Williams, right? You think Caleb Williams can break out. Maybe you think that Justin Herbert is still good and he's going to run more this season. Like just take a shot on someone you have a feeling about plus Jared Goff. And then you've got the stability of Jared Goff. You know he's going to be productive. You took a shot on the other, that of the quarterback. They don't work out. Doesn't matter. Cut him. You can share the best options. But I mean, Jared Goff on 144 is sweet. Okay. Close the video. I want to touch on some players that are ranked super low on ESPN that you probably have to scroll for to see. People are not going to consider them because you're going to have to move so far down in the rankings. People are just going to take the top players and not going to consider these guys. So everyone we talk about here is going outside the top 230 picks. Keep in mind, we're not reaching for these players at like pick 100, right? We're reserving our like last pick, our second to last pick for these players, at least last and second to last like bench picks because we're always keeping defense and kicker for the last two rounds. But just keep in mind, don't panic in the later rounds. We're like, oh no, there's not going to be any skill players left. There will be. So, Johan Dotson on ESPN going 231, my ranking. He's going 140th, Ricky Pearson on ESPN, 238, my ranking 149. Everyone else I'm about to mention going outside the top 250 players on ESPN. Josh Downs, I'm at 151. Braylon Allen, great handcuff, great high upside bench running back. I'm at 157. Khalil Herbert, I have at 163. Bucky Irving, 164. Michael Wilson, 170. And then Greg Dorch, 186. So definitely like write those players down. Keep them in mind as you get into the final rounds on ESPN, understand that that entire list are very, very strong players to draft with your final bench spot or like maybe two of them for your last two bench spots. It's totally fine. If you get into the final rounds and you're like, well Nick, I don't even have to go to your 140s because there are players going at 110, 112 in your rankings that are available in the last round. Fine, go with them. But especially if you're in, you know, 12 team league with deeper benches, you know, you're in a 14 team league. If you have to get into later rounds, you have to scroll down. Those are players that are being ranked very, very lowly on ESPN. Obviously not a bunch of, you know, running pack and wide receiver ones. But players who are going undrafted that should not be going undrafted. So keep that in mind as you approach the final rounds. And again, I just want to reiterate on ESPN. It's a unique platform. This season wide receiver value is just absurd when you get into round three, four, five, six, seven, eight. Obviously you can't draft a wide receiver in all those rounds. And I like some of the tight ends. I like some of the quarterbacks as well. But I don't like the running backs in that range. And so you really want to be starting off, my goal would be to start off running back, running back or at a minimum, leave round three with two running backs. Definitely at a minimum minimum. You got to leave the first or second round with running back. You're going to lock yourself into a box. If you go wide receiver wide receiver and you're going to be forced to attack running back at a spot where wide receiver is easily the best value. So hope that helped anyone out who's drafting on ESPN this season. If you want to see my exact rankings in every scoring format, along with my detailed projections for every player, see that my website, thefantasyfootballadvice.com. If you watch this far, be sure to leave a like. If you are new here, hit subscribe as well. It'll be a new video every single day. I'll be back tomorrow to go over the most important news from the last week. But that'll do it for this one. And thanks for watching.
