UFC 305 Picks | Du Plessis vs. Adesanya | DFS MMA DraftKings Picks
Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC 305 DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:47 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:43 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
05:57 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
08:03 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
10:07 - Outro
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(upbeat music) What's up guys, welcome to another edition of the UFC quick picks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC 305 this weekend in Perth, Western Australia with Drake's Stu, plus Severs, Israel, Autosania in the main event should be a really fun card. As usual, I'm here to give you my favorite cash game play, tournament play, salary play, and a matchup I like on the Draft King Slate as well. Before I get into it, please subscribe to the channel, like the video, and comment below, tell me who is going to win the main event. It is a near pickum. Right now, Autosania is a very slight favorite, but I've seen a lot of action on both sides. Curious who you think will come home with the bell on Saturday evening. All right, let's get into it with my cash game play. Of the week, I'm going to use Casey O'Neill at 7.6K. All right, I like O'Neill in cash games this week, and for the record, I think cash is kind of difficult this week, so I haven't fully decided on one line up. There's kind of a lot of different ways to go. Part of it is the salary with the elite favorites at the top makes it difficult to pay up for anyone else. But ultimately, O'Neill is one of the best values on the card, and that's why she's in consideration for me. She's plus 119 to win at 7.6K, and there is not a lot of win equity below the mid-range. I think DuploC will be popular at 7.9K, but once you get down into the mid-to-low sevens, you're talking big underdogs into a Vassa, an Aguilar, and then Jingliyang, huge underdog hooker, huge underdog. Burns and Reyes almost have no win equity at all. So 7.6K for O'Neill, who's plus 119 to win, feels pretty reasonable, especially considering she fights at a high pace. She lands a lot of strikes per minute, 8.41 significant strikes land and per minute, she can also wrestle. I don't think it's the easiest matchup for her in the world that she could definitely lose it, but you can play the long to Santos in tournaments if you want, I think the long to Santos is fine, given her grappling upside. Santos is overpriced at 8.6K, and not really in consideration for cash games for me. O'Neill still very much in consideration, considering her win equity, the value at the price, and her ability to produce offense in multiple realms. And Santos has taken this fight on short notice where O'Neill probably already had the cardio advantage, already had the pacing advantage over 15 minutes. There's definitely a path where O'Neill can survive some grappling exchanges early, and just outpace Santos over the duration, viable underdog upset there, good price, and I think she's a strong play in cash games this week. All right, my tournament play of the week, I am going to roll with, I'm gonna give you a pure contrarian target here. So this is not a fighter who I love, this is not a fighter who I'll be extremely heavy on, but I do think this is an interesting contrarian target, and the person is Josh Cooley Bow at 8.5K. Cooley Bow is not really an exciting fighter. He doesn't really score a lot of points, he doesn't really produce a lot of offense. He's really limited in that sense, and I don't really ever target him. He only wins 3.2, significant strikes per minute, and he doesn't grapple. And odds are, he's not going to win this fight convincingly, and he's not going to score very well when he does win. In his three UFC wins, 58, 76, and 77. So at 8.5K, it's not extremely likely at all that Cooley Bow smashes and ends up optimal, and that's why I'm sort of categorizing it as a full-on contrarian play, but at the same time, Cooley Bow is probably gonna be the lowest-owned fighter, excluding the, lee jiggly egg, maybe not even, you know, at 7K and the 6Ks, I think Cooley Bow will be one of the lowest-owned fighters on this slate. Why I think he's an interesting contrarian target is because he's facing an opponent in Ricardo Hamos who tends to quit, and Hamos is talented, Hamos is well-rounded, he's got flashy technique on the feet, he's a good submission grappler, but this has been a trend throughout his career, and Ricardo Hamos, being a grappling specialist, has now been guillotined in round one, twice in a row, and in his other three losses in the UFC, he was knocked out in round one in two of them. So Hamos has lost in round one in four of his five losses in the UFC, and that's not to say Cooley Bow is guaranteed to win by knockout earlier or anything like that, and that's not the outcome I'm predicting, but now he's flying over to Australia. I don't know, it's hard for me to be fully confident in Hamos, especially if he's taking any damage or facing any adversity at all. Cooley Bow actually surprisingly, but despite him not reading out well and historically and not being a great finisher, he's actually plus 175 to win inside the distance, which is not a bad line. It is one of the better lines in this range, actually. It's better than, you know, the one with Santos, it's better than Israel out of Sonya. So again, I'm not going to be very high on Cooley Bow, but the Tofu Walker fight, which we'll talk about, a great fight and obvious fight. The main events there, Santos and Neil will be popular, Son Kanon, Ricky Glenn will be popular. There just aren't many places to differentiate yourself, and I think this is one of them, and this is one of them that Cooley in theory hit. It's sort of narrative-based, but look, the dirt is in the details. Ramos has been finished in round one. Almost every time when he loses in his UFC career, he's the underdog here. Cooley Bow is going to be low-owned, very interesting, contrarian target for me there at 8.5K. All right, next up, my salary play of the week. I'm taking another long shot here, and I'm gonna roll with Dan Hooker at 6.9K. This is, it's not a contrarian target, but it is a punt. This is not a fighter that I think will win, or that I want heavy exposure to. And in fact, Hooker has a really low floor because he's fighting to taste Game Rod, who will probably just take him down and hold him down and maybe submit him. So there's no reason to be exceptionally excited by Dan Hooker, but we need salary savings on this card, and so I'm more inclined to look into this range than I might normally be because we're lacking win equity through much of the dogs. And Mateus Gamra, despite having a pretty sublime record, has been quite shaky on a number of occasions. He's actually been knocked down in four of his nine UFC fights, and not only has he never been knocked out, but he's won two of those four fights. So it just smells and screams regression to me. A fighter's getting knocked down almost every other fight, and they're rarely losing, let alone getting knocked out that just, I don't think that's likely to continue, but the fact that he's getting hurt so often is a concern, feels like it could be predictive, and now he's fighting an opponent in Dan Hooker who, yeah, he can take down, but if the fight plays out on the feet or even if it extends into the later rounds, I think Hooker has some damage upside. Hooker's a superior striker, a lengthy striker, and has been in a lot of wars, and Hooker can wear you down and knock you out, and again, I'm not picking Hooker to win, but I think there's sneaky knockout upside from Hooker. He's gonna be low on 6.9K. He's gonna be facing one of the more popular fighters on the entire slate in Gamraut, so there's leverage there. Again, Hooker doesn't rate out well, plus 525 to win inside the distance, but if you need a punt, I think Hooker is viable, sneaky KO equity, and I wouldn't mind being a little bit overweight to the field on him 6.9K. All right, and finally, the matchup of the week, I referenced it earlier. It's gonna be our mid-range matchup with Justin Jr. Tofa and Valtter Walker, Tofa's 8.2K, Walker's 8K. Tofa's a slight favorite at Midas 127 Walker, the underdog plus 110. This is, the fight's only minus 210 instead of the distance, but it's pretty binary, in my opinion, where Tofa's a former glory kickboxer. He excels on the feed that these are the aggressive fighter. Most of his wins come by round 1K0, where Valtter Walker is a wrestler, and somewhat of a liability on the feed, somewhat of a liability in extended fights, and those liabilities forced him to lose, contributed to him losing his UFC debut as a big favorite against Ughasbreski. In this matchup, though, Walker's not 9.4K. He's 8K, and now he's fighting an opponent, and Justin Tofa, who really cannot get up from takedowns. And we've seen this on the regional scene, we've seen this multiple times in the UFC. Tofa doesn't defend takedowns very well, and he doesn't really get up from takedowns when he's taken down. So it seems pretty obvious that Walker shouldn't stand and strike with Tofa. I expect him to wrestle, unless the UFC's gotten in his ear and told him that they'll cut him, if he does, but I think Walker's gonna wrestle, and I think if he does, he's gonna earn takedowns, he's gonna earn a lot of control, and I think he has, maybe not sneaky, but I think he has underrated finishing upside, plus 285 to win inside the distance. He would have scored 85, 86, even in a tight decision win in that UFC debut at 8K. There's some viability there, and obviously that was in a tight decision. So I think he has pretty significant upside there at 8K. I really like Walker this week. Tofa, I'm a little more hesitant on, because he could get taken down and held down early, and that could limit his ceiling, but he also has plenty of knockout upside. If the fight plays out on the feet, I think he's gonna have a legit chance to knock Walker out, and at 8.2K, plus 110 inside the distance, he's gonna rate out very well for upside purposes, too. That's gonna do it for this week's UFC quick fix. Thank you so much for the support. You can follow me on Twitter, but I'll be double T, double P, establishtherun.com for all your draft Kings breakdowns. These just finished a two hour premium podcast with my boy, Gordo Gamble, just breaking down every single fight on the slave. We are raking the projections, all that good stuff, all the information you need for UFC 305 again, establishtherun.com. Really appreciate your support. Best of luck this week. Take care. I'll talk to you all soon. Peace. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
