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Granger, for the ones who get it done. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - Nation, we are back. Shout out to Joel, who's on vacation, but I feel that it's not the same if we don't introduce with PGA Nation, we are back. And delighted to be joined this week by the one and only Byron Model Maniac, who is one of the sharpest in the business. I'm sure you all know by now who he is. If you're not, jump onto Twitter. He is the Model Maniac. He's a spreadsheet Maniac. He is a very, very sharp follower on Twitter in terms of all of his topics and Byron. Nice to see you, my crew. How are you doing? - Hello, my guys. No, it's good to be back on the show, good to not be in the audience, good to be showing them what's going on behind the screens over here. So looking forward to just a fun little evening of draft cast, so let's do this thing, yeah? - Absolutely, well, you know, it's big time the VN Phoenix Cup playoffs are here. The field is set top-seemly here. And so we had to bring back one of our favourite VIP guests in Byron. So thank you so much for joining us and excited to see who you take this week. And one thing that we always need to do every week is the foot check and Spencer, of course, representing Memphis, Tennessee. How are you doing, Spencer? - I'm doing well, David. You know, if you wanna do Joel full justice on this show, as I'm giving this talk right now, if you wanna freeze and just stop moving up for a second, yeah, exactly, that'll do a full justice for Joel. But no, it was a good tournament last week. Added Aaron Ryan 18 to one, had a great head-to-head betting card moving into the playoffs as you talked about here, but 70-man field, there's gonna be a lot for us to discuss. A lot of ownership is condensing in the same areas as it always does in these fields, but we'll have these conversations, we'll run through the board and we'll give our best picks on the show. - Yeah, and look, I guess one thing is that now that we've got the signature events kind of set up in this similar kind of manner with top 70 golfers, we have always had a recent event with the Olympics, where it was also a reduced field as a result. You know, we're getting kind of used, I guess, to the condensing of ownership that you see in these events where we shouldn't be so shocked if a player's 15% and suddenly think that that's true here. It's obviously gonna be a factor of the nature of the way that the field is set up in these elements, but touching on the Olympics, I mean, it'd be remiss of me not to mention Lydia Ko, who completed golf last week at the Olympic Games, matched up her silver at Rio, a bronze at Tokyo, with a gold medal at the Paris Olympics. For me, it was one of the greatest golfing feats that we've ever seen, mainly because the women's fields are being absolutely superb. We've only seen one player in the top 100, not in the field in Rio, only two players in the top 100, not at the Olympic Games in Tokyo. So the women's games have always had the best field of the Olympics and she's completed a trio of medals. So absolutely superb, gets into the Hall of Fame, very, very proud Kiwi at the moment. What about you guys? How did you find the Olympics? Was there any sports that you guys really got into? Or has it just been all golf mode as we've led into the playoffs? - I bet Lydia Ko is a single bullet, just in case she won gold. So I just woke up and signed out as, "Oh, we've got a golf sweat and it's the ladies." So she got antsy on that back nine, man. After she rinsed it on, those two water holes on that back nine, the par fours, they were taking soles. So that was kind of fun seeing all that go on there. I enjoyed it like we were chatting about there. The track cycling is a big one for me. It's very unique, it's very technical. It's these guys in the aerodynamic slipstream positions are like incredible to see you guys winning by 0.01, like it's nuts stuff. So really fun to watch that. And then obviously just everything. Especially when the people, like when one Olympian is beating another bunch of Olympians by like a landslide, that's just incredible to me. 'Cause these are all like the top 0.1% of the world's population at that sport. And one other person is just bitching them, completely dominating them, which is kind of also fun to watch. - Yeah. I mean, there was a couple of reels out there in the social media world of average people trying to complete Olympic sports, just to put a perspective, I guess the nature of their achievements, which was a good watch. So go out there and find some of those. But it's been any favorites from the Olympics that you were following. - I always liked track and field. Like one of my core memories from when I was young was the 96 Olympics with Michael Johnson running in the gold shoes. So I've always been drawn the track and field. There were a lot of good races there. I'll ask you guys this before we move on officially the break dancing competition. Have you seen that Ray Gun, the girl from Australia? - The one that's fighting off epileptic attacks, mid sequence or what's-- - Yeah, we could call it that, but that was, it was an interesting performance to say the least. - I asked my girlfriend what her favorite moment of the Olympics was and her answer was Ray Gun. Just from the quality memes that came out of it, it was hilarious anytime that the Aussies do something off that ilk us here in New Zealand, more than happy to have a laugh and enjoy it. But yeah, look, it was very, very enjoyable watching that. I thought it was like your mum turns up at a party and tries to be cool and that was the result. - I know that they're not bringing it back for the 2028 Olympics and Ray Gun has gotten a lot of slack or flack in the space from what that performance was, but I will say this, she brought a lot of attention to break dancing that it wouldn't have normally gotten. People might want to be a little bit like, temper whatever they're saying towards her. She, if you are a break dancing fan and you were excited to see in the Olympics, like she's not the reason why it's not coming back, but it definitely brought a lot of eyes to the sport. You know, at the end of the day, we're all human. She did the best she could do whether she should have been at the Olympics or not as another story, but you know, she should keep her head held high. I thought like, not all publicity is necessarily good, but she definitely was one of the big stars of the game, whether it's for the right or wrong reasons. I don't know. - Yeah, look, I mean, I agree with that, Ray. - Yeah, I agree with that. - God damn it, sorry, go, David. (laughing) - McLaughlin Laverone, is there where we go? - Yeah. - She's amazing. - She's a queen, dude. - Yeah, she's amazing. - Yeah, there's sport for me. And we really got into this at the Tokyo Olympics, but my girlfriend and I love the sports climbing. Like sports climbing is fascinating, because not only is it like this physical sport, but also the strategic kind of tactical nature, trying to solve the different problems on the climbing wall is absolutely enthralling. And I don't know if you guys saw, but all the Olympic athletes had to do a recording of what their voice sounded like. I guess in order to help the commentators when pronouncing their names and the leading female sport climber is Jania Ganderit, and her voice of Jania Ganderit, and as soon as you say Jania Ganderit, well then you can just talk and they're coming with voice from then on out, that just immediately floats into it. So she is an absolute monster, she was great. So without further ado, that's the Olympics cupboard. Shout out again to Lydia Coe, Scottish effort just during Scottish effort things, costing us money. We had a dikimatiyama 35 to one, shout out to him. Finishing in bronze, couldn't make a part on the last six holes to really put the pressure on. But we head to the FedEx Cup playoffs and very important event, because not only is there a huge amount of money on the table, but we want to see golfers getting into their top 50. That's what's going to make sure that these guys get to play in all of the signature bets next year, those $20 million prize pieces. The top 50 is the cutoff to make BMW Championship and qualify for those signature bets. So we'll jump to Spence with a course breakdown of TPC Southwind, the course that we've seen a number of times on the PGA Tour. Spence, was it take to be successful at TPC Southwind? - I thought when I started building my model, this was an extremely straightforward par 70 property. It's going to accentuate ball striking at the end of the day. We've seen that come to fruition nine times over the past 12 years. When you look at the winner of the event being the one who's led the field in strokes gained T to green, you're going to get these Nara Zoysia fairways that help to enhance that metric since thick Bermuda rough creates a secondary penalty beyond just the 11 holes that feature water. That Zoysia conversation, I thought is a really notable piece here, because you get this stark contrast of balls that are in the fairway that'll sit up for second shots. That's a very unique texture versus this thick Bermuda rough that's going to be sticky to hit your irons out of, especially with all the water that's going to enter the mix. Like there are certain players and we don't need to get into all those players are, but I'll name one of them. Justin Thomas is one of those names that has seen a significant improvement when you put him on comp setups with the expected driving. There's a reason why he's won this tournament multiple top 15 finishes. It's now whether his game is ready to compete again in this season. That's another conversation that we can have, but I think the takeaway I want everyone to hear from this is that when you get this T degree in answer from within the data, it always starts pushing the narrative into two directions. So one, you get a reduction of putting, just naturally that comes into the mix here. And then two, you get an overall enhancement, specifically here when it's more of a plotters, club down sort of a course, a finding fairways, there's a miscut penalty that comes into play, and then striking your approach shots well from the critical distances. That range that you're looking for this week is going to land between 125 to 200 yards. Nearly 67% of second shots occur from that distance. That's a total that's almost 12% higher than what golfers face weekly. If you want to add some putting to the mix, and I did, I do think it's a way that I can make my model a little different. There are a few ways you can go about that. Fast per mute of putting was one of them. I always like to create this in situations like this where I take opportunities created, and I mix that in with expected make percentage. That's more so what golfers are going to create the most opportunities, and then what the projected make percentages are from there. It's like a really fancy, nerdy way to try to figure out who's going to actually produce birdies in these spots. But at the end of the day, and you guys have anything you want to add to this, go for it. But this is a ball striking course. If you do not have ball striking at your core, you're going to have a trouble finding high and success at this tournament. - There you have it. I mean best course breakdown in the business. I particularly love that you honed in on that 125 to 200 yard approach metric that popped in the data for me as well. If you go back historically and look at the golf course, particularly just the lack of par fives, the two par fives are vegetable by the entire field and two really. And it does take out that kind of 200 yard plus approach metric that we usually see in a really condensed approach range in terms of a huge number of shots that come from those mid ions, I think is really key. There's always a few ways, really interesting. You don't see them often on the PGA tour, TPC Craig Ranch and East Lake, the only two other courses that use that in the regular rotation. You've had a few of the major championship venues have that Valhalla had it. Bela Reeve had it as well. When you can link those two with Brooks Keepger as well, having found success of both courses. So I think that's key. And then you mentioned about the Bermuda Rough. I noted in the Greenskeeper notes that they've actually grown out of the Bermuda Rough even longer this year. So it was two and a half previous year. It's gone up another half an inch to three inches. It is going to be very, very thick. Now compare that to say Kentucky Bluegrass, you might see four and a half inch Kentucky Bluegrass. But Bermuda has a tendency for the ball to go right down to the bottom of the grass. And you can end up with some really dreadful wise, we saw they were not Max Grazeman last week, where you couldn't even see a ball one yard in front of him that culture had to basically point out from where his golf ball was. Even though he was standing just off the fairway. So very, very penal test. I think Spencer's absolutely nailed the course breakdown. Byron, anything to add before we bring up the draft board. And I will add audience. You've been gifted the first pick by Spencer here. So very, very generous in Spencer. But you can start putting names in the chat while Byron tells us about TPC Southwind. - No, I think if I try to add anything more to that, I'll be lying. I just think it's a great week to kind of pick your poison. And some shout outs to Jolio in the chat. You know, I think the pre-locked WDs always respected by us DFS communities, you know. So you never want Jol WDing mid-show. So we thank you for that, Jol. Those that rusted you are appreciated with that. - Fantastic. Well, audience, you are on the clock. In the meantime, while you're putting your picks in, just to remind you, that is the player who receives a second nomination. So put a player in the chat that you would like for team audience to draft. Do we ever get seconded first? Do we ever get second nomination? It's going to be the audience pick. Standards safe, so I'll draft. You're drafting salaries around here. And you have to say I'm doing a salary cap because you can't just build an illegitimate lineup as much as the audience would obviously want to. And it looks like we have got a backup on Rory. So we've got Zach, Jeffers, and Simon Assassin, both regulars in the chat, leading our team audience with Roy with the first pick. I, for one, am shocked. I thought they were going to absolutely just lock a non-scwatch ever here first out of the marks, is it where Byron, what say you on the audience's kind of strange decision to go Rory, but the first pick here? No, I'm thankful they went with Rory because I'll be taking the option that they should have taken there. But I think, you know, you can't really fault any kind of decision you make in the top five. Yeah, I think Spencer and I were chatting about it yesterday, that it's just wherever the ownership takes you at the top. Yeah, it's kind of where you want to find yourself. So before that really comes into play, I'm going to just take the best value. And that's Colin Maricow at $10,000. Love his ability to find the fairways. Love the lack of 200 plus iron shots we'll be experiencing this week. I think that's one of his still, you know, lesser ranges on the approach side of things for him. So love what Colin's been up to, the puddings being great, but he can ball strike a golf course to death. And I'm expecting him to bludgeon it this week again. I am shocked. I can't believe that Scott and Jeffers made it to the round here. I don't know what I'm going to do. We're going to have to think about this now. I really like Colin Maricow. He is a fairway finder. Obviously, we've seen a really positive correlation of that TPC Southwind. The average fairway width here is just 25 yards. That is very narrow. We've seen an increased rough as a result of that as well, which is going to add to the driving accuracy, let alone the 11 holes with water and play. And Colin Maricow has been excellent between that 100 to 200 yard approach bucket, which is very, very key. He's one of the best of the world within that round. So I do really want to reiterate, I do like that play on Maricow from Byron. Spence thoughts on the first two picks with Roy McElroy and Colin Maricow. More than anything, just to buy me some time to think about how I can get the shepler in here now. I'm running ownership right now. I forgot to do it before the show. So as all these picks have been coming in, I've been trying to update the ownership. I was surprised that Scottie was not the number one pick. I think like beyond the odds on favorite that the audience would have gone in that direction. Although the one thing I will say is, Rory has been catching a ton of steam here in the market the last, I would say 12 hours. Like I see him right now as the third projected own player, Colin Maricow being second Scottie being first. Not shocked that this is how it's gone beyond the Scottie answer. Like I think you have probably the safest player on the entire board for the price in Colin Maricow. I think Rory, you do have intriguing upside that I would have liked the ownership to be a little bit lower than what we're getting right now. Like to me, this was a much different position when I thought he was gonna be sub 15%. It starts pushing it a little bit in the other direction the other way, but I have no problems with anybody. However, they wanna start at the top in all reality. I thought like Byron said, we discussed this on our show together. It's a really strong group that you're gonna have to pick your poison, but there's not a name that can be given from that section that I'm gonna tell anybody like I'm against it at its core. - Yeah, I think that's right. I mean, look, this is the top sevene golfers in the PGA tour. So the guys who are at the top of the board, obviously playing great golf and that's why they're there, right? And so I really don't think you can go wrong. It might come down to playing some ownership. I think that might be the way to kind of approach it. I mean, in that regard, we'll see if Aberg gets taken, but Obig's gonna be the lowest owner of those group. And maybe that's just an interesting way to approach it. There's just like the guys who are gonna be the lowest owner, they're 10K kind of plus range. I am not gonna take shape with it. I'm gonna again shockingly defer. Mainly because he's lost putting now through the last four tournaments. He hasn't got a great historical report here. Ownership's pushing like 30 to 35%. And I'm much more intrigued by what Hadeki Matsuyama is gonna do this week. So I'm gonna take Hadeki Matsuyama. Obviously we're close miss on him at the Olympics when he was third. You only needed one more part or two coming down that stretch. Finished with six straight paths, but was constantly finding greens. And that's kind of been the recipe with Hadeki Matsuyama. The big thing for me is that we see a 35% increase in expected output on approach when we get to Zoyser properties. And that's comparing all the five kind of previous venues where we regularly see this grass type. Each jumps up to six in this field for strokes gained approach on Zoyser properties compared to 12 when we're looking at the last 12 months on approach. So we do see expected output increase in that regard. Obviously very accurate off the tee as well, which I think is key. But he is just playing excellent golf at the moment. It's a lot more consistent. I've got any injury concerns for pants. The first time in my life with Hadeki, which probably means he definitely withdraws. But I do like him here with the first section. I think that we expect a good week from any just seems too cheap. - Yeah, I mean, I think that if you would have gone Scotty is now you put me in a real bind of a situation here and all, I think tip my hand. And I would like a second also, I'll let Byron talk about it when I get finished. I probably if hypothetically, this draft would have started Rory Morikawa, Scotty, I was probably gonna go Hadeki and Corey Connors was the route that I kind of saw most fit there for how I wanna do it. Now, it's a tough decision with Scotty. I'm gonna consider this myself. I'll kick it over to you, Byron, as you talk about the play so far. - I love the vamp before handing the vamp off. Spence, that's next level strategy there that I really appreciate about you. So yeah, I mean, I'd pull this trigger on Scotty, 12-4. You know, it's real comfortable to spend your salary on everyone else after that. You know, we stopping at the 6K range this week. We've seen Scotty closer to 13 with a 5K range. So I don't know, it's an interesting juxtaposition you can find yourself in there, but I think it's time to give you the mic back to make your decision. - So I'm gonna start with Corey Connors just because I've already put this out into the airwaves here and I know he's not gonna fall back to me. I guess the one problem that I have with a Connors-Cheffler start specifically is that's probably going to be one of the more popular ways that people begin builds. And that worries me ever so slightly here, but you know, look, Corey Connors specifically, we always can talk about the putter being a concern. He's only ever won at the Valero. We're talking about a ball striker's course where nine of the last 12 times the winner has been the one who has led the tournament from T to green. He also has an expected increase in putting projections. A little bit has to do with what we've seen from him recently inside of my model, but any time that I can find a ball striker that has these upside returns with the putter, even if we're still just talking about a fringe top 40 sort of a putter in this field, I don't necessarily know if he even needs to gain strokes with the putter to work himself up this leaderboard to win this tournament. I will make a prediction here, which is not like a bold prediction that he will have to gain. We've seen people in the past win this golf tournament while losing strokes. That feels more like the Scotty-Cheffler answer that would come into play than what we're gonna get with Connors. Like to me, Connors, more Akawa. I still think we're going to need to get them to be at least neutral or better with the flat stick, but to me, this is a very common start to a build from how everybody's gone to begin with. I'll start with Corey Connors and just because this is not how I plan to do it originally, I will end the slide of Scotty-Cheffler and figure out what I-- - My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row ass man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friend's still laughing me to this day. - Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be. - Hey, your job. Do you ever have to deal with a nose roller? How about a snub bully? All of you're installing a new conveyor belt system. Dealing with the different components can sound like you're speaking a foreign language. Luckily, you've got a team ready to help. Granger's technical product specialists are fluent in maintenance, repair, and operations. So whenever you want to talk shop, just reach out. Call clickgranger.com or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. - When something happens to your car, you might say, "No!" 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Granger, for the ones who get it done. - I want to do from there, just 'cause I didn't expect him to fall this far down the board. - Also, just an interesting move to take Scottie Sheffler in the second round, just so we can say that Scottie Sheffler went in the second round there, which I really appreciate. I really like Conners. He was gonna be my next election. So that is a direct steal from Spencer Deere. He's gained putting in five of his last seven starts now, which is always a great sign for Corey Conners. After Scottie Sheffler, Corey Conners is the best in this field from 100 to 200 yards on approach. We're obviously gonna get the driving accuracy output from him as well, which I really appreciate. So I think that he's an excellent choice. Six last time out here as well. Byron, any thoughts on Conners and any more comments on Scottie Sheffler falling to the second round here? - It's essentially the same versions of each other, but just in varying degrees, like Scottie being fourth degree burns and Corey just first, you know, or whatever, whichever was the most important or dangerous. But neither can really putt when it matters. And then they can ball strike this golf course to absolute pieces. So, I mean, we're looking for guys like this and they make tons of sense. And, you know, Corey providing you with that nice salary at 9,100 bucks isn't terrible. - Yeah, I think that's a really interesting take as well. Corey Conners is basically the poor men's vision of Scottie Sheffler, elite ball striking, which this course always tends to identify sometimes can putt, sometimes can absolutely not putt. So, I think that's a really interesting way to frame that question. All right, so back to me for my second pick here and I'm gonna go and take Tomkin at 8,900. I'm really interested in your ownership numbers on Tomkin. I'm currently seeing 13%, which is much lower than I expected on him for a golfer who is playing very, very well. I mean, he was third in the first round at the Olympics last time out for the first round and then finished up in eighth. He's got a good record here, including the 13th on his first look, a number of low rounds. He's hitting it longer than we've ever seen, but as well as keeping his accuracy, the approach numbers are very, very good. And yeah, Tomkin at 8,900 with the ownership that I'm seeing. I think a lot of that's coming down from, you've got Nancy Yamakon is keenly right above him. Some Jam right below them is gonna be popular and it's like Tomkin was kind of in this, like middle ground where he's getting kind in this, but he's playing great golf and I just expected his ownership to be much higher than we're seeing. So I'll go to you Byron, any thoughts on Tomkin and then you're on the clock with your next pick. - Yeah, I was taking a look at my betting track record and he's one of my biggest money pits for some reason. I just, I've just never got him right as much as I adore him and have hit two of his three outrights. It's just being tricky to pinpoint his level of commitment each week. He seems like this, each time he's on tour, he seems to become more and more like a teenager and you know, as he's getting out of his team. So it's kind of just like this volatile personality that I'm not in the mood to kind of deal with from a betting perspective, but maybe in a big GPP DFS setting, I could see Tomkin there. So someone who isn't as volatile as Tomkin is actually showing up inside the top 10, the fourth highest rate at 42% of the time, last 12 months is Russell Henley. He's 9,000 bucks and I don't know. If you think about a golf course that's very suited to what he gets up to. Kind of like Wyndham, kind of like Sony, you know, I think accurate off the tee, really good inside the 200s to 125s and he loves himself some Bermuda putting and he's become a really good putter lately. So give me some Russell Henley, you know, when your short game is the best part of your game in 2024, going to a golf course that suits your ball striking even better, I like that, you know, coming together of skill sets, yeah. - Yeah, look, Russell, for the record, Russell Henley opened at 50 to one in betting markets, which would have intrigued me, but he very sharply got beat down to 35s. Now, like you're struggling to kind of find 33s on him. So I think that's really interesting that the odds markets have moved very much in favor of Russell Henley here. Spence, the audience is on the clock, so get your picks in for your rep round. So you've got two to get in here audience, so nominate some names. But Spence, I'll jump to you. Thoughts on Russell Heidley and Tom Kim here, both in a kind of similar range. And, you know, maybe if you were going to play one or the other, where would you kind of land? - Let me start with the Henley part of the discussion. He's going to be popular, but I always talk about it, and I already talked about it previously with Corey Connors. Russell Henley's kind of that like 1B version for me of what Corey Connors is this weekend. We really get these high end marks on Bermuda putting surfaces. He jumps from a two year baseline in my model on any surface from the 31st putter to specifically on Bermuda here to 13th. So I thought that there is a real reason why people are going to Russell Henley this week. I certainly understand why. And I agree with what you have said, David, about Tom Kim with this just being more shallow ownership than I would have anticipated for him at this moment. Like if you directly compare him to, we'll just say Hadeki and down to Sung J. He very well, like him or Finail will probably be the lowest owned man in that range. And it's a surprising result, because I may rather have Corey Connors. I may rather have Hadeki. But when I start comparing Tom Kim to the rest of those names, I think I'd rather take the ownership discount that you're getting with Tom Kim. As I've kind of said for all the draft picks though, there's not a pick that's been made yet that I am like sitting here and questioning why somebody's done it. I think things have been pretty standard. - Yeah, nothing too controversial yet. I mean, Chad had as well to the go to the first round leader to see in a shot who backs up the Tom Kim play by saying Tom Kim equals your first round leader. Shout out to see it in the chat here. It looks like the audience got their two picks and which are Sung J in and Aaron Rye. I'll share that Sung J in was going to be my next selection. So that's another steal. We do tend to see a lot of steals in these 70 man fields, but I think Sung J in was playing some great golf. And I think this is one of the better spots compared to the other situations he's found itself. And on other golf courses, where his output is still being excellent. Aaron Rye, I'm a little concerned by the ownership, obviously coming off the first win. A lot of people are going to be jumping onto the Aaron Rye train here. Byron, I'll jump to you. Sung J in Aaron Rye, any qualms or any advice from these two selections that then you're on the clock with your third pick. - Yeah, I don't know. Aaron Rye is going to be interesting. I think I'm going to land up bed in this guy to win this tournament because there's a narrative on my show earlier that someone mentioned why would you not bet the two glove band it when to go back to back when a man called Glove literally went back to back at the same two tournaments this time last year. You know, the skill profile fits this golf course perfectly. It's like, what are we doing? So I'm on Aaron Rye at 50. So let's go back to back with this one. And I think the audience is onto something. Sung J in congrats on another non-win this week, but good to have him kind of hanging out there in a good lineup and potentially, you know, providing the fodder to the top fires and top tanks you need. - That is a very interesting narrative. One, I am the thought of the fact that Aaron Rye wears two gloves that Lucas Glove last year won the Wyndham Championship and then at TPC South and it's the same church championship. Very, very interesting, double-cloved for extra protection, I love it. Byron, you are on the clock with your third pick. - Okay, I'm going to go ahead and make my guy, Bion Hern An as a $7,600. Kind of just, I'm going to start nudging my salary up as I make some pictures until I can figure out where we're going. But any on is typically showing up when you don't expect him. You know, he played quite nicely at the Sony to start the year. He's a pretty good golfer on these shorter positional tracks where you have to club down. He's a very good long iron player. So that helps on these kind of courses because although that 200 plus markers kind of out of the approach side of things, you're still going to be hitting those 250-yard iron, driving irons on some of these holes where you kind of just hit the fairway. So he'll thrive in that department and the iron play for his fantastic. And again, he can be part of that team ball striking no putt situation and has shown the propensity to putt well every now and then as well. And I'll just be looking forward to seeing what he can do. He's very affordable, very cheap. And he's had some seriously good performances this year with a lot of top buy finishes. - Yeah, and we often find that at the FedEx Cup playoffs when we get there, sometimes guys who haven't necessarily been in the greatest form lately, but who have had a great year suddenly show up at the FedEx Cup playoffs and sort of acknowledge the fact that they've played well for the rest of the year. So I think that's really interesting. I think it's five percent ownership makes them really interesting. Spence, I'm going to be on the clock here next. So I'll jump to you. Any comments on the Sanjay M, Aaron Rye picks from the audience and any commentary on being the arm from you. - So for Ben on, I had this conversation with Byron yesterday on our show together. He was one of the biggest increases in my model when you put him on the Zoysia fairways of how he produced. So I thought that was an interesting return. The other thing that I also talked about Byron with is Aaron Rye and this strokes gain total output that we've seen from him. So from the two year running model that I have, which is going to be much more geared towards 2,024 at this moment. He is sixth in this field for strokes gain total. That is behind Scotty Rory Zander, Oberg Morikawa. He is the next name that enters the mix. So, I do think that any time that you have ownership that starts immediately crashing in on a name that just won, you have to question if there's been too much movement. Do you think the price is too cheap though? So like, for that reason, I'm probably ending. You can figure out a way to get different in other spots. - Yeah, very, very interesting. As selection there, Potentius and Wausom leverage and the feeling on place well, it just five percent ownership. I'm going to go grab some value here because Spencer is going to have to, having both Sheffler and Cori Connors in his lineup. And I'm going down the board quite a way. I'm going to take Austin Eichrote at 6,300. We saw him come out and finished 6 last week at the Wyndham Championship. What I love with Austin Eichrote is both long and straight off the tee, which I think is a really lethal combination around TPC Southwind. We've also seen his ability with his ball striking. And sometimes it's the putter that lets him down. While these aren't the most difficult greens in the world, they are pretty flat. There's not too many undulations. The greens are pretty small. So you aren't going to leave yourself too many leg cuts here. I also like that he won at PGA National earlier this year in the Cognizant Classic. Another golf course with strong drivers and strong ball strikers have typically done very well. There's a lot of water in play. So I like that he's coming in with three straight finishes. We're putting very, very well, sixth place last week. We're at the PGA National. I think he's a good value at 6,300. Great way to save some salary. Spence, you're going to be on the clock here with Beck Beck Hicks, but I'd love to hear from you on what you'll think of the Eich goat. Accuracy golfer inside of my model with the way that I ran it for this course, that also graded third for average to easy scoring off the tee production. So I think you get a really cheap price tag here for a golfer that has built in, we'll call it upside from the profile that he has. I think he's an interesting name down here where, I mean, I'm going to be honest with you, David, and I don't know if I'm going to go this route yet and I'm going to kind of talk everybody through this. There is a potential that I might just go so rogue with this lineup that you're not going to see anything that looks like this in the entire space. And we've had this conversation with Joel quite frequently because Joel is the one that typically finds himself in these spots where he starts Scotty Zander or Scotty Rory or whatever it is, and he has absolutely no money down at the bottom. And my concern that I always tell everybody when they do that is in a 70 man field to actually compete, you need a little bit of a flatter distribution than what you end up getting when you go completely boomer bust. And when you go so boomer bust in a lineup that you have like two or three names that are at the bare minimum of what you're doing, like it's going to be hard even no matter what you put around it. I don't know guys, I mean, how crazy do we want to get here? Do we, I guess-- - Do it, do it, do it. - I guess let's make this as wild as a lineup can possibly look in. We'll just say from a roster construction standpoint, what happens when you do a similar route to this? I know I could wait to take him. The reason why I'm not going to is because I'd rather just get the player that I want right now. One, I don't necessarily need the leverage that I'm going to have that David talked about with this player because I'm already gonna be unique with this build. - But two, one of the things that I am, Zach, this is not stalling. The pick has been made right now, but I am pretty good though at filibustering through the conversation until my mind gets made up with it. I am always looking on the board for a golfer that enters that Scotty Xander mix. That is not being priced accordingly. And on DraftKings, it's a different conversation than the outright market. I think for me that there's two players they get the closest to that range. We'll exclude Rory for a second from this mix. It's Morikawa, the market in the outright market as respected, a lot of ownership's coming on DraftKings. And then it's Ludwig Oberg. And if I take Oberg here, like, well, technically I don't need a leverage sort of a play on a lineup that's going to put me literally down at the bottom of what we're looking for of this pick after pick, I'm gonna take Oberg. He's the number one player in my model in projected opportunities gained, mixed with projected make percentage. I don't know if we've ever been in a spot where somebody can't actually fill out a build. This might be where I go, that where I don't actually have six players that can fit into a lineup. But I will go first with Ludwig Oberg and then to start going down the salary scale here, I will take Mackenzie Hughes at 60, 200. - Oh, are you kidding me? - One of the things that I want to find for these golfers, and this is what Byron and I have talked about in the past too, when we talk about our DraftKings show, is I want to find players with an elite skill set. I want somebody that can pop in a certain metric that can bring them up the board. And putting here has not been the core requirement of what everybody's going to talk about. But at the end of the day, Mackenzie Hughes has a putter in his bag that if somebody is going to find high-end success here, it's a Mackenzie Hughes sort of a skill set. So I will take Mackenzie Hughes. I have no money left on the table. I don't know who I'm going to round this up with. It might end up being me, myself in the lineup. But I don't think too many builds are going to start Connor's Oberg and Scotty and that alone. Like for me on this show, it's almost going so rogue is what makes this fun to see what a build actually looks like. - As to support as Byron is by that selection, the chat is having a great time. You've been accused of stalling, buying time. Albert's asking Senator please answer the question. Did you order the code read Spencer? Byron, are you okay? I want the truth, the audience is going off here. So Byron, let's talk about Mackenzie Hughes 'cause it looks like you're in tears over that last look. - He's a double agent this guy. He's working both sides of this thing. He put himself at the turn. He's done the reconnaissance on me already. Love Mackenzie Hughes for this very reason. He's putting at a level that's consistent and elite. He's putter is gaining five strokes per tournament for the last five tournaments. It's ridiculous. So I love him. I think he's one of these rogue agents under the radar. If he just goes bonkers with the putter and the chipping, I can see him just double his ball striking, which might be negative. So it could get rogue there too, but I love it. I love it and I love your arsenic rotate as well. These are two guys that have been kind of under the radar, but both can sneak through here quite nicely. I like him both. - Yeah, look, I mean, they can often be the way that these large GPVs gets decided is just who you get in their kind of bottom six K range and find some value. So New splash on Mackenzie Hughes, he will feature towards the end of the show as well. So that's gonna be interesting. Make sure you stick around 'cause we give all of our first round leader bets at the end of the draft. So the clock is back on me here after some pretty outrageous picks in the last few selections. And I'm gonna go a little bit more of a traditional round in Alex and Oren. Obviously, we know he's a great fairway finder. We know he's got the power to surround the greener with his putter in hand. But his approach metrics from 100 to 200 yards are really excellent as well. I like his ability to score on this kind of property and his links to PGA National. I think that makes him a strong selection at the bottom of the seven K range. He does come with some ownership. So that is my main concern. I'm Byron, I'll go to you thoughts on Alex and Oren and are you concerned with his ownership at the moment? I'm currently seeing around seven percent. - Oh, that's okay. I don't have ownership in front of me. I was thinking more like 12, 15, you know, 'cause he can get very popular at a very rapid rate and he often doesn't pay that off, you know? So I'm impartial with him. I'll play him if he's low-owned. I won't if he is, you know, like I'm leaning on either side of the fence there for sure. So I'm cool with it. - Cool, sweet. And after that, you are on the clock. - I'm gonna take Spencer's $6,200 Canadian and raise him with a $6,000 Canadian. - Oh no. - Nick Taylor. Let's get-- - I can't go out of line up now. (laughing) - You can take Peter Malnadi. Take Peter Malnadi now because you took my guy. So Nick, Nick Taylor is gonna be my guy. And I don't do it out of spite. He's got a 24th and a 35th year. In his last three starts, we know this guy can win any tournament. He is almost a bit a version of Mackenzie's use when he puts unconscious, when he's feeling himself. So give me a $600. You're saving $200 on basically the same version of Mackenzie's use, so. And you get a box out of large, like 25% of your field because now they either have to take Jake Knapp or Peter Malnadi. - And controversial, very, very controversial. This is why we love to have the model maniac on the show because he always brings it. Going straight head to head, Spence deals, Mackenzie Hughes of him, comes back, takes Nick Taylor from Spence's side. You spent your size hit enough, really. But can you expand on why you wanted to take Nick Taylor here at TPC Southwind? - I mean, to be honest with you, I don't know if Byron, you even thought-- - I didn't mean to. - Yeah, I didn't even talk about Nick Taylor on the show yesterday. Like you mentioned him a lot more than I did. It's just, for me, when I get down into this bottom tiered section, there are a handful of names and unfortunately I can't even afford a name like Eric Van Royen. But there are options like Van Royen, Nick Taylor, probably those two specifically above anybody else where there are these really high ceiling outputs based off a certain metrics and the floor is the last place. And that's certainly something that I understand with Nick Taylor here, but we wanna look at what I deem to be at least in some ways a similar course and that's Pebble Beach where you get these really small green complexes. Nick Taylor is a former winner at Pebble Beach. It's the reason why, I mean, at this point, if we're just gonna, I don't think anybody's gonna draft him, but if we're just gonna ruin the show for everybody now, so reason why I'm going to play Wyndham Clark this week when nobody's gonna necessarily wanna play him, but there's certain fits to this course that I think have high upside where I'm willing to shoot for the moon and Clark is one of those in the high $7,000 range. Nick Taylor, is that exact option just much lower down the board at 6 grand? - Very, very interesting. It's gonna be interesting to see how you round this out. Now Spencer, only two more 6K options left on the board for you. The audience have gone and taken Eric Cole and Adam Scott. So I'll jump back to you, Byron, any thoughts on Eric Cole and Adam Scott and would you have a preference between the two in terms of their value at the moment? - So audience seems to really enjoy guys that have recently just rediscovered some form and have been playing a really good golf. Both of them, well, underwhelming mid-season stuff and both seem to have found their game at a great time. This is, if you're gonna play good for a few weeks, all year, this is the time to do it, you know, right? Before kind of getting into the stretch where you keep jumping from bubble to bubble and both of them are likely on the bubble needing to get into the next top 50. So, you know, Scott's been playing some really exceptional golf lately and I think Cole as well. So both, you know, are great fits here and like what I get from them. - Yeah, I agree completely, especially with that Adam Scott coming, I mean, Adam Scott was like the darling of everyone on Golf Tour at the beginning of this year, right? We were really expecting huge resurgence. Went deep quiet in the middle of the season, really producing kind of nothing, like a couple of like 12th and 14th, but nothing of note. And then his birth back with his second at the Scottish and then the 10th at the Open Championship. So, yeah, very interested to see how he goes this week as well. Byron, you are on the clock. You've got a fair bit of celery actually to play with here. So interested to see who you're going with your fifth pick. - I'm gonna go with Peter Malmardi. No, I'm just kidding. I'm not gonna take one of the only two options fans has left you again. So I've done my damage in the $6,000 range, so to speak. So I'm gonna zip up top here to a $6,800 golfer by the name of Cameron Davis. Hasn't been taken yet. So I really fancied his chances last week. Kinda let me down. He laid well here last time. He's kind of in teetagreening these golf courses to pieces as well the last few weeks. And if that continues and he's part of doesn't show up, I mean, there's no real better course to do it. Then here, you know, this is what we've been speaking all week is you can win without putting well. And he's been doing just that right of the windum, which I'm okay with scrapping that off my mind. You know, if someone played badly, they're cool. I don't really care, but if they played well, you know, I'll take that into consideration. So AKA Aaron Rye, but yeah, give me Cam Davis. I think he frees up some really nice celery there. And I like his chances as a flop lag candidate. Yeah, look, an interesting selection I do. I do sometimes like to take that contrarian route where you go for a player who was very, very popular the week before and didn't produce. And so therefore you get depressed ownership the week after because everyone's been just burned by someone the week before. We've also seen with Cam Davis, a history on some of these kind of like nuclear courses where his driver actually gets taken out of hand that he performed was really, really well. Obviously here, for example, at Harper Town really comes to mind with his output there. Spence, I'll jump to you quickly. Cameron Davis means Scott and Cole went into those last three picks. Any commentary on one or two of those? My model like Derrick Cole, I thought he was one of the better values in the 6,000 range. I had him in a match up last week against Justin Rose. Considered going back down a similar path against a name like a JT Post and didn't end up going in that direction. I like Cole just fine though. I'm kind of trying to scramble here myself, David. I really don't know how to end this build, unfortunately, because of what Byron has done to me. I mean, I'm slightly disappointed that Byron didn't take peter man out of everything. I think I would have been obligated to take Jacknap and just ensure that Spence had zero chance of getting sick men like that. Has anyone out drafted themselves on this? I almost did once. I put myself in a very similar position, a handful of weeks ago. Oh my God. It has a habit before where someone hasn't been able to fill out the legitimate lineup, but it would have been hilarious to watch Spence have to submit a five-man line up this week. So I mean, a little bit of a guess showing Appio to guarantee yourself a third place finish. You know, I should have really shot for a flaw there and just doubled down on my, you know, the rake this week. Yeah, it would have been, it was a good, it was an opportunity missed. I think I'm thinking about an opportunity missed today. We will regret in the future, although not that peter man Marty, you know, I can actually be better. I mean, I have a bit of an opportunity to line up. I wish you guys would have done it. It would have given a free win to the audience. And I feel like I am an extension to the audience this week and most weeks. So if you want to give the audience a win, I can live with that. I, yeah, and I do think that's actually, that's a fair point is that if we've done that, then we're like, we're also just giving away first place to the audience automatically. So I think that's properly a fair call as well. I'm going to go and I mean, it doesn't really matter which one I do 'cause Spence can't afford either with these guys, but I'm going to take Roy McElroy here, 11,100. He's got a very good record on this golf course. It's not a major. So he is less likely to choke away victory than the miscut at the open. And obviously what he did at the US Open. Outside of that, he had a very good week at the Olympics finish. But one of the top and the fear of Australia's game approach. He's both long and accurate off the team, which I really like his past winner at PGA National. We've had the third and fourth year in his last five appearances. So I do think that this is the kind of, this is the time of the year when Roy McElroy really heats up. The fears can't play offs mean a lot to him. He'll be really trying to shoot himself up the leaderboard and ensure his place within those top three going into the tour championship. So I'll take Roy here and then Spence, you are on the clock with the back to back picks. Oh, I can't take Roy. I can't. I'm pissed. Thank you to Albert pointing that out. I'm going to go Zander Shofle then. There's the other option. I'll take Zander, I'll spend up second best golf from the field, second best golfer this year. You've been on it, I have so far. So yeah, heavy takes and Zander, Roy, for me, either a good place. - I feel like you have to give Spence to one of your players now. (laughs) - After taking the audio, trying to take the audience's player. I think, you know, we have to take from the region. - It will automatically become a five or six, yeah. I mean, part of the trouble with trying to quarterback the show is that you don't, I've got the small screen up this time rather than the last screen. So, 'cause I'm jumping all over the place. Oh, he's that is my excuse. - Okay, Dan. - Spence, you are back to back. I'm going to go to take Zander. Any comment on Zander and not Rory? - I mean, I would rather have Rory, but I mean, obviously, when he goes one-on-one in the draft, it's going to be hard to get them. Let me ask you this. - If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it. Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery. So you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-Granger, click Granger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it. Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery, so you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-Granger, click Granger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. David, and this is me trying to buy a little bit more time for myself, even though I only have one of two choices I can make. Would you have gone Ludwig Oberg if he would have been on the board? Ah, yeah, probably. I probably would have gone Ludwig just simply because of the ownership discount that you're getting on him. Like I'm seeing him by far the lowest earned of all of those guys at the top. I do think that these are top five golf in the world, and I'm just happy to play the ownership game on them. Plus, the salaries have it would have opened up more options for my next selection as well. I think that's fair. I mean, that makes me feel a little bit better that I've now backed myself into a corner with whatever this is to talk about these magnificent golfers that I am choosing from the bottom. I would love Ludwig and my lineup. I would like, if I will build this and then add Ludwig just off, you know, for my own lineup this week, I think why the hell am I to? Yeah, it looks like we all wouldn't consider this in there. Well, while Spence decides if he likes Peter Marnati or Jake Knapp more as Zach is dead, silent assassins and things I should forfeit, Albert thinks I should forfeit, Zach close me off the island. Albert thinks that me and Spence should both only be allowed five bricks this week, and Zach has extinguished my porch. So thank you guys for pointing that out. It does happen. But yeah, I'm happy to take that. Look, he's a great golfer. And if he was saving $1,000 on the Scottish air fry, I think that he's a viable way to approach the week. Yeah, all right. I will move us forward. I have made a decision. Okay, buddy. May the force be with you, yeah. I am first going to leave the decision that everybody's waiting for, of which 6,000 golfer I am playing. And I'm gonna say my decision at this range was either Brendan Todd or Patrick Rogers. I'm gonna shoot for the upside with Rogers. Rogers is hated in the market. I understand that there's one little key piece of information that my model liked about him. I ran all Zoysia courses and expected off the tea performances. It's like that's Valhalla, that's TPC Craig's ranch. It's the handful that we get throughout the air. Rogers ended up being a top five expected off the tea performance, really the only category in my model where it liked them in that. But I know what Brendan Todd is at the end of the day, like I think in order to actually shoot for high and success in a no cut tournament, I'd rather try to move up the board. So I'm gonna take Rogers and then I'm gonna wrap this up. There is no world. I don't even know what's wrong with Jake Knapp at this point and why he withdrew from the tournament. I'm not playing Peter Malnati. I'll play Jake Knapp in bed on the outside. I mean, we would win in a fight. You'd take one arm from Jake Knapp and have him go against Peter Malnati. 'Cause I think that's what's happening this week is maybe he's got like a bum risk or something. - That's an interesting conundrum actually. It's Peter Malnati versus Jake Knapp with one arm. Who wins? It's a tough one. Yeah, look, I think Jake Knapp's the only logical selection out of those two. Patrick Rogers is interesting. 'Cause I wonder, Spins, would you have considered Seamus Power the identity into your frame of mind? 'Cause he's being popular this week. - Yeah, Seamus is another name. I should have included him also. I certainly think he's a name that you can consider if you find yourself down in this section. Like, I thought Rogers, maybe in reality if we're actually looking for upside that enters the mix, Seamus is probably better than Brendan Todd at very similar ownership. I don't have a problem with the Seamus route. I still stand by, I think Rogers is just such a boom or bust commodity with lower ownership. So I'll take that route and kind of bet on this decent floor that we've gotten from him recently with some somewhat intriguing metrics. And of course, like, I mean, his number one strength is his distance off the tee. And we're gonna remove a lot of that from the mix. And it's one of the reasons why some of the upside numbers have concerns, but yeah, I think Seamus would have been fine also. Spencer, Rogers' last five tournaments have been no worse than a 37. He's like averaging 30th position on all sorts of courses. So I think he's sneaky, man. Like he's actually averaging three spots better than Seamus over the same period of time. So I like it. - Him and Mackenzie Hughes had very similar prediction grades in my model for like safety, which is kind of a weird answer to give there. But there was at least an elite skill set that I could find from each one of those names just in varying directions of that answer. - I love it. - Well, controversial end to Spencer's line up. And Jake Napur, Peter Marnati, will be one of the eight old Christians. I like, feel free to jump at the chat and tell us who would win in the five Peter Marnati or Jake Napur with one arm. I think that's a lot of fun as well. Look, I've got 6900 here. I think that if Harris English hadn't withdrawn last week, this would be a really easy selection for me. The fact that he did W.D. raises some questions. FYI, I had him as well as selection last week on the PGA draft cast, he didn't even start. So Joel, I believe, put the hecks on Harris English. The rest of my solutions will be there including a number in the top 20. So unfortunately, we're in my chances of taking out the draft cast last week, Harris English. So I'm not gonna go back to him here and see if I'm gonna take Tom Hoege at 6900. Yes, we've seen some decreased approach metrics from him in the last couple of starts. But if we look on a longer term basis, over the last six months, he is second in this field for strokes gained approach by Scottie Sheffler. And this tournament does have a tendency to reward the best ball strikers. So I like the fact that we're gonna hopefully see some revisions to that elite ball striking that we see produced. I like the fact that he's 20 second in this field for accuracy as well. Of promises, the fact that his driving accuracy started to come back in the last few tournaments for Tom Hoege, and we're seeing increased performance here. He finished 12th here on debut back then this was a full field event as well. So I'll take Tom Hoege to round out the line up here. Byron, any thoughts on the Hogue master and do you have your last election? - Yeah, I've made massive amounts of money on Tom Hoege betting him top 20 this year. He hits top 20 rates at a ridiculous number, but the top 10 numbers are not there. He's actually lost lots of money in that market. So it's kind of interesting, he's found his sweet spot and he's kind of lost it the last little while. So I think he's more of a form guy. You can kind of see it when it keeps rolling, but maybe this week he bounces back, but I'm not kind of holding, I'm not betting him this week, which kind of goes and says what I think of him. I'm gonna go with a really random play and just go with Victor Hovland here. Has anyone taken him? I'm looking on a small screen as well. - No, I probably would have been the one that would have taken him if I had more than $6,000 left. - You've got so many like expensive players on your team, Spencer, I couldn't distinguish like, who's what's going on over there? But I'll take Victor Hovland just to round this out. I don't want Cantley or Tommy Fleetwood. I just feel like those two are just basically the same silver medalist for centuries kind of guys right now. So give me the guy that can also win this thing in a lineup that has a Kolomari Kawah in it too. So Victor is struggling around the green and I think if he can just dial it in with ball striking, he's doing wonderful stuff in that department. So he seems like he's in a good space. Seems like he's found his groove a bit. I'll take a gamble on a goal for the played while he had lost you as well. And could find his stride again at this time of year. - David, can I take this really fast before we move on? 'Cause I do have a pretty large take on Victor Hovland this week. - The floor is yours, my friend. - All right, so if we wanna look at Zoysha Fairways, let's go back to Valhalla. That's a tournament where Victor Hovland moved himself up later. But really, if we wanna be honest, the only good performance in reality, for the most part that we've gotten from him in 2024. I made this argument during the Olympics and it didn't come to fruition. But when you add water to the mix and specifically here when you lower the green complex size, it does start accentuating certain approach metrics. And I took him at the Olympics. He was a top 15 projected scorer. What I was most intrigued about with that performance is that he actually gained with the irons after going ice cold with them for a while. So I think that Olympic performance we're only talking about, I don't have it up in front of me right now. It was like a stroke or a stroke and a half over the course of four days. We're not talking about some overwhelming amount that he threw into the mix, but we did get the turnaround with the approach game that we were looking for. He's gained off the T and eight tournaments of the high end golfers, which I will still consider him that. He's one of the elite putters from that mix. The around the green game is terrible. Like I don't even know what his true baseline is at this point. I worry a little bit about him chipping on a surface like this. But when we're talking about pure upside plays, I really like Victor Hovlin as just a shoot for the moon play and just know what you're getting into here. And for Byron's lineup specifically, like he's left a lot of money on the table. Hovlin is gonna be a upside candidate. Like nobody's gonna mimic that build in a large field contest switch. In a 70 man, like you already get unique points just from that. - You just messed my stuff up with so many expensive guys. You know, like I was hoping to at least grab one of the top four or five guys that I don't have any available to me. - Yeah, well, I mean, yeah, and Byron, you did have the second selection. So you could, there were opportunities for you to steal here as well, I would think. But Victor Hovlin's interesting. I like what's been touched on in terms of Valhalla being another's always a fair way spot where he finished dirt. And as you said, it's been the most notable kind of performance of 2020 for Hovlin. I never thought for any chance after he won the FedEx Cup last season that we'd be talking about a situation where Victor Hovlin was outside the top 50 and why not even get into the signature events and signature events in 2020 life. I think I've just dropped out a little bit. I don't know if you guys call it or that. Did my internet drop? - No, you started getting blurry at the end, but we heard everything. - Okay, that's good. No, Victor Hovlin obviously for Hovlin. But it's always a fair way. I think that's a really, really positive fan correlation. Audience, last selection, Sep Striker. I do really like Sep Striker here. Again, he's one of the biggest jumps from the, in terms of it's always a performance. Byron, any comments on Sep Striker? It seems like he's got a ton of upside. - Yeah, you kind of just betting on what he can be versus what you expect him to be this week. So I guess that's another way of saying he's got upside. - Yeah, Spencer, any comments on the Sep Striker before we get to our fifth round a little bit? - No, I think you guys said it best with everything. And, you know, I will say about my lineup, if I could put in Nick Taylor and then any combination of, I think Seamus is a great play. Like I'm happy David brought him up. Seamus is a realistic candidate, top 35 expected producer and weighted T-degree in production. He's a top 30 expected performer in weighted proximity. I think he would have worked perfectly fine. Like some combination of that with Nick Taylor. I really like my build even with it being Boomer Bus, but I can't help but look at this and just see the grossest lineup that's ever been constructed with Jake Knapp being on it. There was no world. And I guess this is what happens on the PJ draft cast, where I thought Jake Knapp would be in my lineup. So let's just hope that he returns to early season form. And do we know what's wrong with him of why he pulled out of the last tournament? I want to say it's his wrist. I was following him at the John Deere and he didn't seem kept fiddling with it, man. So I don't know. It might be a recurring thing, but also maybe, I don't know, his girlfriend was in town. So it can't be that bad, but I don't know. - If assuming I end up getting a withdrawal here, which I think is like definitely on the cards, this doesn't feel like a Joel spot, where Joel has put his curse on to me. I think this is my own doing where I've backed myself so far into a corner that it was either Malnotti or Knapp and you have to make a decision somewhere. - Well, there you have it. One of the most entertaining lineups, I think from Spence that we've seen in some time on the show, some very controversial pegs towards the end. We're not done yet though. We always, at the end of the PJ draft cast, love to give out our first round leader players. I'll bring the draft board down. Now last week on my first round leader card, I had Billy Causchel, who hit the frame for us, got a top five, finished second for the first round. I had a line-up going with Billy Causchel, Brian Harmon, and I was challenged to continue taking players with initials ending BH, while both hostel have beat us to first round leader in the end. So there goes some karma for me, but Spence, I'll head to you first. Do you have any first round leaders this week for the FedEx StU Championship? Victor Havelin, Wyndham Clark. I'm gonna bet on the upside of those two golfers. Keep it very small this week. I'm not looking to take on a bunch of exposure. I thought, you know, anytime you get a 70-man field, you get more or less prices that feel gross on the surface. But the one thing I will say to that, I thought there was a lot of whole percentage in this market where books realize it's a bit of a crapshoot, and they kind of priced this accordingly to where I didn't see much value. So I'll take two random shots that I had upside for, realize they can come dead last and just go from there. - Yeah, we do love some good upside but the first round leader beats Byron. If you had a look at the first round leader marker, then anyone that you'd like at what number? - Yeah, I'm gonna keep it short and sweet as well. I'm gonna go to Justin Thomas, 40 to one. I think he plays well here, man, he's been firing in round ones lately. Like he is, you know, that horse that's like in high def and then becomes like a stick horse at the very end kind of picture. That's how Justin Thomas' like rounds are starting nowadays, you know, like he is a fine ass and then it's just out of control when it gets into the weekend. But the other guy I'm gonna go with is Patrick Canty as well, similar situation, high upside in these round one situations. It's played well, yeah, before finished second to the glove man last week, last year. So I need some redemption from him and maybe he can give it to me in round one. - Justin Thomas, last two starts. He has been food after the first round and then he was first round leader at the start before that. So another couple of fast starts for Justin Thomas there and Byron is hoping for a third. I've got three players for my first round leader. First is Hideki Matsuyama at 33 to one. We had a bit first round leader at the Olympics getting at the same number, 33 to one. He has been on this course 60, he's shot a 67 at 68, 68 to 65 in this four first rounds here. So coming off a first round leader at the Olympics, like him to go back to back here. Then I'm gonna back that up with Tom Kim, 40 to one. I'm gonna endorse see a selection for the first round leader. He was third at the Olympics. Again, he was on our first round leader card. We had three players there, they were Hideki Matsuyama, Tom Kim's second striker. They finished first third and six. And Tom Kim was third there for the first round. He shot a 66. He was first at the Travelers for the first round leader. He got 62 in there. I don't think TPC River Highlands is the worst comp course for what you can expect at TPC Southwind in terms of what the course demands. And in his two rounds that he's played at Southwind, he's shot a 64 in the 66 in the first round. So I like Tom Kim for first round leader there at 40 to one. And I did promise to make a return and Simon's assassin bringing up the Mackenzie Hughes pick. I did promise Mackenzie Hughes would make a return at the end of the show. Mackenzie Hughes, first round leader, 80 to one, is probably my favorite first round leader bet on the market at the moment. He has priced right down the bottom. Now he's played four times at Southwind. He's shot a 66, a 67, a 67 and a 68. Though he was then a 68 in his four appearances at TPC Southwind in the opening round. The three are open. He was second after the first round. He shot a 64 at the open. He was fourth after the first round, shot a 69. And then at the travelers, as I mentioned, decent correlation to what we expect here. He shot a 65 in the opening round. So you can get him at 80 to run to be the first round leader. He gets a 740 AMT time as well, going off in the morning, which I do like. Guys, that's my first round leader card, but anything that we've missed this week, anything that you want to touch on. - I will say, I love the Mackenzie Hughes and Hideki Matsuyama first round leader plays. I probably will tell you on that. I'll put it over in the wind daily chat that we have there if we have anything there to talk about. But no, I like those two plays. I think it was an exciting show, not exactly where I was expecting to go with conversations, but that's what you're always gonna get in a 70-man field at the end of the day. You have one selection specifically, and like I can talk about backing myself in the corner. Like I specifically did that by taking Oberg when I did. It makes me feel better to know that David would have jumped and grabbed him from me. So like I don't have regrets based off of that, but it's unfortunately what comes into play when you make one little change and then I can't hit delete or the X button and move away from any players and say let's rebuild this now. - Yeah, that looked super interesting that Chef lived out to where he did in the selection as well. I think me not taking care of that did help to back you into a corner of the year. Byron, it's a pleasure as always to have you on mate. Anything to add this weekend? Where can everybody find you? - Well, you can find me on back nine bets on media and then just on X at the Model Maniac. I'm always over there doing my thing and a great show. It was lots of fun, enjoyed hanging out with the two of you and unknowingly, to me, Nick Taylor became one of the most important picks in draft class history. And I'm very sad I didn't take the opportunity to really box out both of you with DNFs. There was a chance I could have been the last standing drafter minus the audience just going head to head this week. So next time I'll work on that a bit better, but it was fun, thank you. - Yeah, well, thank you so much again for your time. We love having you expertise. Make sure you are following the Model Maniac on Twitter and all of his shows and all of his articles. It's always excellent. And if you're not signed up to one daily yet, make sure that you give this video a like. Make sure you subscribe so you never miss the entertainment. It's a unique show, right? Like we, the fact that we are drafting lineups against each other puts us in these positions where we have to talk about guys in their 6,000 range and why we like them and why they might be available option. And that can be really the key to winning a large GPP. We've also got a promotion in the chat at the moment. The picks have been absolutely on fire as of late. We've constantly returned over 20% ROI for the last three seasons on our beating picks. And there's a code in the bottom of this description right now where you can grab 50% off on one daily sports membership. So that is a no brainer. Make sure you smash that like button and it's sexy, but there's only one thing left to do, Byron. What is it? Sports. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it, Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery so you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Granger.com or just stop by. 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The FedEx Cup playoffs are here! The PGA Tour heads to Memphis, Tennessee for the FedEx Cup St Jude Championship and the team is back to draft PGA DFS line-ups against YOU the audience.
