(upbeat music) My Wrangler jeans from Walmart are legit my favorite go-to pants. They got that slim cut that's always fresh for going out. - Hey, what's up? - They're durable enough, even for my shift. - Water rep. - And stretchy enough for when I want to kick back and chill with the movie. So basically, they can do it all, hand on my budget. I mean, come on, you really can't beat all that. Shop your Wrangler pants at Walmart. (beeping) - My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row ass man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laughing at me to this day. - Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. Linked in, the place to be, to be. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - PGA Nation. We are back coming off the USA bringing in a gold medal and we have to pass the gold medal on this show off outside of the USA. Congratulations David on a big draft victory last week. It was a fun Olympics tournament, but we move on this week to the web sims in Gen, I mean the window championship in North Carolina. I'm excited to break it down with David. How you doing today? - I'm good man, I'm good. Hey, look, just a reminder to the people watching this show, not only are you getting great DFS content, but the first round leader players have been on absolute fire. Joel and myself, both gave up Hideki Matsuyama to be first round leader at the Olympics in Paris, which he duly delivered cash to 33 to one for us on that. And I only gave three out. They were Hideki, who was first, Tom Kin, who was third and Sep Stryker, who was sixth. So very, very good first round from all of those guys. And always pleasing to get that runner up spot off that monkey off my back and get a victory, despite Matthew Fitzpatrick withdrawing in the final round, had a number of guys who were right there in contention. I should also add for the audience that in case you don't know, if you were completely oblivious to the news that there is a rather large storm moving across the East Coast, where Joel is located, as well as this tournament this week. So we might see Joel jump in and out. We're going to have to just play it a little bit by year. He may withdraw several times. This tournament might be reduced to 54 holes, given the amount of rain. Certainly, I think it's going to be at least a Monday finish. Spencer, you've done any research on old Hurricane Debbie and what influence that might have this week? - Well, yes. I will say with Joel being frozen in the background, when I was noticing this before, he had gotten frozen and I kind of wish it would have happened. If he scoots back, it almost looks like he's behind like prison sales with all of the lighting that's taking place with it with the reflection, but I don't know if that's like Joel putting himself in prison here to not get withdrawn from the show or whatever is happening, but I think you said it best, David. It's a tournament this week where weather is going to play a significant factor. Unfortunately, at the end of the day, whether that ends up being a 54 hole tournament, a Monday finish, there are some unknown variables that are going to take place. I still like the betting card. I've given this answer quite a few times and some of it is good and some of it is bad when you get these events where there is a lot of rollover predictability. Welcome back, Joel. When there's a lot of rollover predictability, though, that takes place. The data starts pointing you in the same direction as a lot of other people. So we can talk about how we're going to get different naturally on this show. Lineups are going to have to be different because you're not going to get every single person that you want just 'cause once a name is gone, you're not going to be able to land that player, but very easy to decipher course statistically, very hard to project with the weather coming into play. - Well, I'll add on, well, one, I'll apologize. This is probably going to be a bad show for me, and I'm going to be in and out. My power is flickering. So apologies in advance. But one thing I wanted to just see if before we move on, fully into this week is, I took a pretty bold strategy on the show last week with taking Chefler and Xander and then trying to fill it in from there. Chefler won the tournament. So you would think that I should work out and I still didn't win, right? So in an event where there is no cut, I was guaranteed six days, I had the winner. I think what that shows you though, more than anything, is when they price Chefler up, and even though you know he's going to have a great result, sometimes it's just too hard to win with that price because he can't play. If you've got to play some of these guys in a very low six scary, they can only do so much. And sometimes it might be better to get five guys in the top 15 and then have the winner and then scramble the rest of your roster. So it's not the same every week, but I think there's a learning we can take from what we did last week. But let's get into the Wyndham championship. Move on to this week. Historically, Spence can tell you better than anyone. This used to be basically WebSims' tournament. One of his kids I'm pretty sure is named after this tournament, yeah. So the issue now is WebSims' in, I'm sorry Spence, I don't think you'll take offense to this. He is completely over there. He's done, I can't, even if there is any time to ever consider playing it, obviously it would be here, but at this point I just can't put anything behind him. I haven't seen any result or any form that seems like he'd be worth putting anything behind. But with that being said, Spence, I'd love to get your course breakdown of what you're looking for this week, even knowing there's a pretty big storm coming. - Just to touch on the WebSims' in discussion very quickly, we don't need to spend a lot of time on him. I've already talked about him for like three hours combined on all the shows. What ends up happening when you get, this is the WebSims' in championship. Like you can joke about it, Joel, but because everybody knows that's the answer, while there's really no reason to play them outside, of course, history, I'm seeing like 8% ownership right now. People are trying to find a way to fit them into builds. And I'll give this comment here, I gave it over in the roto ball or discord. I haven't necessarily seen any matchups, and I gave this answer to Ed when we were having this discussion. I'm not going to ever admit I said this. If you were to say I said it, this did not come out of my mouth. I thought Web was a really intriguing person to try to take on in the head-to-head market. Unfortunately, we haven't necessarily gotten any of those opportunities so far this week, and we'll see what ends up happening. But that's my two cents on the WebSims' in discussion here. You look at this course, I'm going to avoid the weather for a second. We've already talked about it. We know that there's a potential that this is either 54 holes a Monday finish. All of that's going to come into play. What are the most noteworthy marks that we need to at least look at here? Donald Ross design, Chris Spence, remodeled it in 2007 to toughen the property. It's going to be a relatively straightforward expectation when we examine the data. Players have delivered a winning score of just under 20 under par over the past five iterations. That shows the general ease that the property has at its core. However, the most significant return, and this is kind of what I was talking about earlier on, is it's one of the 12 most predictable venues on tour yearly for rollover performance. So I think the question that you have to ask yourself based off of that is, how much is the weather going to affect it? And if it does affect the tournament, where does it affect it? We look at this venue eight par four holes that stretch between 400 to 450 yards. 83% of the approach shots occur from 125 plus yards. You get an 8% increase from 125 to 175 versus a Sanders stop on tour. I don't know, it's always the tough thing with weather because weather is the great equalizer and weather is the answer that you don't always have all the pieces put into place. You can get into a position to where John Rahm is one of the best plays on the board at the Open Championship. He ends up on the wrong side of the draw and while he comes in seventh place, it ends up hurting his high end results, although with somebody who had a John Rahm ticket last week, I'm not so sure we even get a seventh place finish from him if he has the lead on Sunday there. I don't know what the hell that was from Rahm. Like I kind of gave this answer whether this is right or wrong. You leave for a tour and you take a lot of money from Liv. You haven't necessarily had those competitive rounds, PGA tour rounds in some of these spots. We can say Liv is what it is. It's a 54 hole tournament. You had an extra 18 holes there. I'm not surprised that Rahm technically did what he did in that spot, but if we look specifically for this venue here, it's going to be putters on Bermuda, players that can find fairways. I think that could even be a little bit of a little more of an emphasis there just because I would assume it's going to be lift clean in place. So the ability to find fairways is going to have an extra weight in my model than it normally would. - I think it's a really good point. I'll add to your Rahm point. There is something to be said about playing on tour and it's a constant grind, a mental grind. You're constantly competing against the top players on tour. There's four days. You're always kind of striving to get to the more FedEx points, get to the next point in the season. And Liv is just different. And again, these guys are still best golfers in the world, but they're not going through the same grind. They're playing team events. You know, you could be, you know, you could have your teammate being in first place and almost carrying you and maybe your individual result not matter quite as much. It's just a different feel. Again, it's three days, like you mentioned. So I think he lost some of that mental four day grind that he was, you know, excellent at, you know, the previous years on the VJ tour. And that I think just showed up, you know, maybe in some of the majors it showed up at the Olympics. But, you know, I'm a pretty firm believer. It's a matter of time until we see the old Jon Rom we know and love back. And he sees two that I golf for not two. Without further ado, we do have a draft tonight. And I am excited to break it down. David congrats on the win last week. You got to select the draft order. As we pull the draft board up tonight. As a reminder, if you want to follow along or if you knew the show, log into YouTube, you can draft along with the rest of the chat. The way it works is like your typical fantasy football draft. It's snake style, one through four. Tonight's order will go myself, David Spencer, and then audience, audience, you'll get two. And then we'll wrap back around. The big caveat here is you will need to stay within a drafting salary. So you can't just take all the best players. You do need to make sure you can afford each one of your picks. Thank you, David, for gifting me the first pick. And what I believe will be the eventual winner of this tournament. I gave you a little bit of a scare when you said you were giving me the first pick before the show and said I might not take some day, but that was a lie. I am taking Sunday with the first pick. Listen, he's priced up. He's the most expensive golfer in the field he deserves to be. He is playing great golf. Is he the ideal course bet? Maybe not. He's a good enough course bet. He's the best golfer in the field, and that's what I am betting on. And then the only thing that might scare some people off of Sunday this week is what his potential ownership might end up looking like. But I think if anything comes in on Sunday, in the low 20s or under 20, I would be thrilled and happy to play him at 10-7. David, you got the second pick. Who are you looking to take first? Yeah, well, thank you, Joel, for doing as I expected and taking the Sunday with the first pick, which was a strategic draft decision from myself that I figured you would go with Sunday. And there was another golfer who I really wanted, and so I thought I could place myself in the second round here and move myself up one spot. When it comes back on the Red Crown. So, look, I think there's every reason to play Sunday. He does really, really well in the comp courses. He's playing fantastic golf at the moment, and he's clearly the class in field, right? So he's finished a sixth, ninth, 24th, second, 14th for his last year appearances here, and he's probably playing some of the best golf that we've seen from him in the last year or year. So I definitely think he is playable. The player that I really wanted to take and who I figured that I could get to in the second spot here was Brian Harmon, who I'm going to take my first selection at 9300. This golf course has some absolutely extreme correlation between TPC Sawgrass and Seachfield. It's one of the most correlated courses that you will ever see. Davis Love the Third, Web Simpson, Seabookin, Sergio Garcia have all completed the double between the players' championship and winning the win-diver championship. In fact, one third of the winners get this. One third of the winners at the winning championship have also won the players' championship. Then you've got guys like Adam Scott and Kevin Kuzner, who were just one shot off winning the players as well. So it's extremely well correlated. Who finished the second at the players' championship earlier this year behind Scottish Heffler? It was one Brian Harmon. He also won on this golf course as an amateur in junior tournaments in 2002 and 2003. Not many people will be on to that information. And then since he's been on the PGA tour, he's had a steward and a six-year previously as well. Harbour Town, he's got a very good record of the Pete Dye design, 7th and 12th in his last two years there. And with the weather, I also think that that's a good factor for Brian Harmon. We saw what he did at the open championship in the win-diver in the rain. And so I really think that actually that's enough positive for him. So here's the standout selection for me in 9,300 years, way too cheap. - Boom, Brian Harmon, solidified by David. Interesting, I like it. Spence, would love to get your take on Harmon and who are you going for your first pick? - This has started terribly. Yeah, Brian Harmon's probably, I mean, first of all, Joel, I think you made the correct decision going Sanjay first. And one of the answers I was going to say, yeah, I know the ownership is what it is at this point. But for just looking pure win equity in my model, Sanjay is pretty substantially the number one player for win equity. I tend to think that this is a great course fit for him. You want to look at who the second player in projected win equity it is? It's the 102 that just went off the board in Brian Harmon. So this is a really tough spot because I kind of written about this. I'm probably going to end up leaving a lot of money on the board, unfortunately. And this is not how I plan to start this build. I'm going to go with Christian Bezade and how to $8,700. I know the concerns of him traveling over and making the trip. I don't necessarily have that concern. Number one in my model, in expected weighted strokes gain total. And that's a very important build for me in the way that I looked at it. Like there's more upside in my model this week with Bezade and Health than I normally get. A lot of that has to do with the recent turnaround this season with his iron play, just being substantially better than it has been in years past. Not how I would have preferred to have started this. It doesn't mean Bezade and Health wouldn't have been a pick of mine, but I would have gone Sanjay or Brian Harmon with one of the first two selections. And now I'm kind of going to be in this spot where I'll probably just take a different build and be a little bit flatter in the construction. - All right, there you have it. And the audience, quick reminder, you're up. You got two, so that those nominations and doubles in. But Christian Bezade and Health at $8,700, he's priced up a bit, but he's playing great golf. I think maybe priced up it is the accurate pricing for that pick. I like the ways that he's the one I would be looking to roster this week. David, I love your feedback on C-Bez before I lock the audience picks in. - Yeah, I mean, no issue. He's playing a very good game at the moment, very accurate golf, obviously. And it really is a key finding the few ways here. It's interesting that from the few way, the green and regulation percentage is 80%. So four and five times you're going to find the green if you find the few way. If you find the rough here, it's 55%. It's a huge, huge markdown on your ability to find the greens if you do find the rough. So Bezade and Health obviously has a hot punter as well, and I think they can keep pace with scoring. And we've lost them. We'll go to the audience, Aaron Ryan, see who can be answers who they have selected. I would have liked to see who can back on the red-browned, part of the reason why I moved myself up into second spot was in the hope of getting Seawoo come. Obviously a past champion here and a past winner of the Wyndham as well. And he just seems to be playing his best golf that we've seen in a very, very long time as of late especially on approach. What's your take on it? - I think both of the picks are two very safe selections to be made at the end of the day. If inside of the safety rating of my model, Seawoo is the second safest player I have. Aaron Ryan is sixth, but there are some top five grades, including being the number one projected total driver. So it feels very safe with tube golfers that are gonna probably carry between 20 to 25%. I don't necessarily have anything negative to say about either. Outside of the ownership discussion. - Sure, yeah, there is that, Peter. I mean, look, and one thing to affect Aaron Ryan famously we as two gloves. So if there's gonna be a lot of wearing this week, he has two gloves to replace on a regular basis. So I mean, the Caddy's gonna have to have like what? 20, 30 gloves in the bag to make sure he's stocked up, to make sure he's got lift and righties all the time. Now I'm ready to go for this tournament, but maybe they improved this grip. Who knows? Maybe they improved this grip on the club with all the rain that's gonna be a factor. - I guess my dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. - My friend's still laughing me to this day. - Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/results to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be. - With the Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card, you can earn unlimited 2% cash rewards on purchases you want and purchases you need. That means you earn 2% cash rewards on what you want, like season tickets to watch your favorite team and 2% cash rewards on what you need, like paying for parking. That's the beauty of the Active Cash Credit Card. It's ready when you are, with unlimited 2% cash rewards. The Wells Fargo Active Cash Credit Card. That's real life ready. Terms apply. Learn more at Wells Fargo.com/activecash. - My cure and brewer from Walmart always comes in super clutch. I got it so I can keep grinding on my paper. You know I'm hitting that deadline. I also got it so I can stay up late to do some exam cramming. And of course, you know I'll be ready to stroll into my morning class, sipping in style. I guess you could say it's a literal lifesaver. Cheers to that. Shop your coffee fuel needs at Walmart. - If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it, Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations. Including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery. So you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Granger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. - Something I will say for a negative mark about Aaron Rice, just 'cause I mean, there is one thing in my model if we're trying to find a reason to not play him. One of the things that I have noticed is that the winner of this tournament, and we're talking about victory here, above anything else. So this is like the highest end mark that you can get. Every single person has carried a very similar trajectory in my model. Where they have either been an elite Bermuda putter, or the caveat would be with a Lucas Glover, they are a better than expected increase on Bermuda versus any other surface. So Glover, for example, outside of the top 130 and expected putting last year entering this event, climbs inside the top 60 for this specific green complex. Aaron Rice moves in the wrong direction. That was the one thing with me that kept me off of him in the outright market. I thought when he opened at 40 to one, it was an interesting number to consider, but with putting being as important as it is in my model this week, that was the only caveat that kept me off of him. - Yeah, sure enough. Although, we have seen an improvement on the putter recently with the switch of putting coach. There is number one in the last 24 rounds in expected putting. So if he continues that trajectory, I mean, victory could be around the corner based off of that answer. - Very interesting, very interesting. Working back to all and spins will roll into your next pick. - So I've given all these answers about needing to find the short grass off the tee, and I'm going to probably take one of the most erratic golfers who's not only not accurate, but he's also not long. I'm going to take Eric Cole. And here is the reason behind why I like Eric Cole this week. First of all, the ownership has started to trend up after what we've seen from him recently. So that is what it is, but it's been a very disappointing season for him. If you look at the data and the way that my model projects him, he's fourth for weighted stroke skin total, seventh when he's faced with the Donald Ross property. So those are high end marks there. He's 17th for expected proximity. I know everybody hears that 17th place rake and you're not going to think that that sounds overly encouraging, but I want everybody to just consider that is attached next to a 54th place expectation when you play elsewhere. And it also yields 135th place GIR rank where it's 15th place here. So there is this perfect venue, perfect time, perfect opportunity situation that seems to be occurring for Cole right now in my model. And then if we want to look at some of the expected driving statistics, he jumps up to 43rd in multiple weighted categories of how I ran it this week. So he's going to be popular. I do think at the end of the day, this is a boomer bus commodity to where I don't usually love the boomer bus commodities paying 15% plus in ownership. But I just think the ceiling is so much higher than what this price tag is. And with my build already getting crashed and burned to the ground with what you guys did with the first two picks, I'm just going to go off script at this point and kind of just play the players in my model that graded the best with everything considered. - Ooh, my love, listen, Cole's on the rise. He's definitely someone I was looking at. And I think he's interesting because, you know, you said on paper, he might not be the perfect course fit. But I think it's one of those guys where you want to play the profile of the guy on the rise, you know, the guy who might be someone who has some upside, then, you know, maybe that on paper, not the perfect course fit and narrative will help to contain that ownership with the upside that you're looking for. So I like that pick. David, we love your take on the last few picks we saw and who are you looking to add to Brian Harmon? - Well, I love that Spencer's set the audience off claiming stolen pick the owner, Cole, who's obviously looking at the chat guys. I mean, it's just typical Spencer looking at the chat. So you know, you guys are naming and just taking those names from me. So look, I do see the fit for Cole. Obviously, he's only played he once. He finished 14th prior to a trip to Lynx Golf in Scotland. You know, a lot of these golfers, right? Like, Lynx Golf is so different. And sometimes you can just strike a line between the open and the Scottish Open. Just say, do you know what? Like, I'm just going to bite those off because it's such a different form of golf. But prior to that, he played very well with the Touric Golf Club, a very long golf course that I wouldn't think fits your course game very well and finished in the top 10. And then the same with the TPC D run, which I do actually think is a very good correlated course. And JT Post enties those to get it nicely. So do share the concerns around the ownership. I'm seeing like 15%, which if a year ends up at 15%, I won't be playing them at 7700. That becomes the phase spot for me. But if there's ownership, say, goes down to like, say, between that 10 to 12%. I think he's in the frame of life. Ooh, all right. All right, David, who do you put with Brian Hummer with your second pick? Yeah, so I'm going to go with golfer, who actually had a very successful trip to Scotland. And that's Billy Horshel. So I kind of hoped on this wraparound that I'll be able to get either Billy Horshel or Seabook in with my second selection. Obviously second at the Open Championship, he played phenomenally well. He also played incredibly well in the final round. It's not like he threw away. The victory has just zanned a shell flape, just played the most incredible nine hole, sort of major championship golf. You will see in quite some time. Ozzy has a fantastic record at the window. He's got second, sixth, 11th, 27th, fourth in his last five starts here. He's got a good correlated form at the Harbour Town as well. He's got a fifth there previously. And I just like where he has gained out, I think it's a really good course for it. He's got to find lots of few ways. And for me, again, someone who's just presenting is really good value, who is just taking all the boxes on the correlated courses that we've won. Billy Horshel certainly looks good over there at the Open, you know, form on the rise. Has to give side to win the tournament. That's an interesting pick. Certainly fits your team narrative of BH initials, which I certainly can't understand. So I got two here. A couple of the guys I was looking at were taken, but I'm pretty happy to be able to steal with these next two picks. First, I'm gonna go with my guy, Akshay Batia, who all around game has been excellent this year. And these are the types of fields we've seen and really excel in where it's a little bit watered down. I think in '91, 100, I feel like you was underpriced. And I feel you're getting a really good barbarian for someone who won't win this tournament. And I'm gonna pair him with, I'm contemplating here because there's two guys I won. I'm just trying to think, who is more likely to get back to me? I'm gonna take Johnny Vegas. Again, we saw him go out and win the tournament just a couple of weeks ago. The ball striking has been absolutely phenomenal. And I don't think that goes away. I think that ball striking, it comes back. You think you're gonna see that. The question mark is the putting. Again, a neutral putter here. If you didn't even need to gain sure, doesn't even need to lose any. I think you get a really good result from him. He doesn't need to win this tournament at 8K. If I can get him in the top 10 or around there, that's good enough. So I just like he's checking the ball too well to be priced at 8K in this field. David, we love your feedback on those specs. And then love to see where you go with your third. - Yeah, I'm probably less high on Akshay Batia just given he can't be pretty volatile with the driver, which you've spoken to yourself. But I guess the other thing to note with him is he does have some very, very good form coming in. Looks to be just one of those talented golfers who's just on the absolute rise. So yeah, look, he's got a lot of potential ahead of him. I just don't know if it's the right spot for me necessarily. Johnny Vegas probably holds more appeal. He finished third at the players championship back in 2019. As mentioned, extremely correlated. He also finished seventh year back in 2012. So he has had some good records there. One of the three in open, he's still just inside the top seven. He's 67, so he doesn't need to have another good week. And that does factor in with these FedEx Cup playoffs or leaning on the horizon for a lot of these guys. But my question with that then becomes, does Johnny Vegas's upside get depressed, right? Because he's 67th, like say he's like 21st or something entering Sunday. Does he then just start to play like real safe just to make sure that he's still in the top 70? Or does he like really shoot for the heavens and go felt like a top 10? So there's all those sort of question marks where you're trying to get into people's head spaces and it does get really difficult in that regard. So I'm gonna kind of deferring from that, getting into head spaces, comment. I'm gonna take a golfer fit to periods who played extremely well at the Olympics. And you could kind of make two arguments here. You could say he's gonna be absolutely exhausted about after what he did in Paris in front of the passionate French crowd that was really fired up and that he's gonna be really emotionally drained following all of that. Well, you could go the other round and say he's gonna be completely inspired. He's gonna realise that he's 71st on the Fedis Cup playoffs list and really needs to come out and play well and he's gonna come back inspired from his time over in France. What really got me with Victor Perez is the links as I mentioned to TPC Sawgrass. Obviously he was fantastic last week shot in minus eight in that final round. But the links to the players is so strong with this golf course. Now, Victor Perez isn't the biggest name by any means in this field. Like let's be honest, he's not. But he finished ninth earlier this year at the players, sorry, back in 2021, he finished ninth at the players' championship. So it was extremely high result in a very high caliber field. Then back in 2020 in that golf tournament, that wasn't. He was three under through the first round before it got canceled with COVID. So his only head two looks at the golf course was looking very, very good in his first to 10th year and then a ninth in 2021 and a tournament that actually got completed. So I like all of those narratives. And I think it's simply 200 based on what we saw from him at the Olympics. I think he comes in fired up and really shoots a good tournament for us. - I like Victor Perez pick. I think we're a value pick where he's really interesting is he has a lot of upside. There's a lot of guys in that range that might be safer that might be about higher likely to get, you know, a top 30. But if you're looking for a guy in the low 7K range that can help him get you a top five, right? I think that's the type of value you get from Perez 'cause we've seen him do that. And he has, you know, those runs that he puts together. So if I'm playing in a GPP and looking for their value plays and parries of the type of golfer or profile golfer that I'd be looking for. Spence, we'd love your take on the last round. And then you got your third pick. - Yeah, I mean, Perez was one of the bright spots of my team last week. If it wasn't for Straca not being able to make a putt and everything else going south in some of those directions and Rom not winning the golf tournament, I think Perez was a very deserving and it would have been a great story if he could have gotten the bronze medal there or even better than that. But I think in general, and it's kind of the same answer that I've given for Bizetenhout. This narrative for me of players traveling has been so overblown. I know Perez exerted a ton of energy here, but it's a case by case position. Like I don't want anybody to be removed from somebody's consideration just for that reason. Now, if you want to give a reason that there's a lot of golf that's been played, there's the travel and the statistical form looks bad, we can have that discussion. But I don't want to remove somebody just for the answer of, oh, he exerted a lot of energy in France and now he's playing a golf tournament. So I think it makes a lot of sense if you want to say something there, David. - Yeah, just really quickly. I mean, like with those guys, they've been there for the Scottish Open, the European Championship, the Olympics. Like, so really in terms of the travel factor, like if they're played in three and open, come over to the Olympics, then go back to the States. I'm more concerned about that situation and guys have been in Europe for kind of a month and then they're just taking one trip back as well. - Yeah. - All right, there you have it. Spence, right. I need to know if I'm frozen here. - Oh, you're good? - Yeah, yeah, I'll take us here. This is another, I mean, you look at my start of the bill, Bizet and how cold, those are two names that I was planning to potentially put on in some capacity. Now all of a sudden we're in this range so where I don't necessarily have a lot of the options left. All the top end values gone for me. I have a board where there's a lot safer of targets than the upside candidates. And I see a lot of ownership around names that I was generally trying to avoid in a lot of these sections. So not the bill that I was planning to start with, but I'm gonna take Cameron Davis at 8,900. One of the top 10 safest players in my model, he carries, I would have taken Billy Horshel for the record if David didn't make that selection. So it's just been like swipe after swipe from David's bill just over and over again. But Davis is number one in my model at Donald Ross Properties. We've talked numerous times on this show about his ability to club down and provide better results. I think there's a reason why he's provided the results he has at this tournament and he's trending. Obviously the victory at the rocket mortgage, but two additional top 26 finishes since then. So I'm gonna bet on the forum, I'm gonna play the safety and as I said, this is a much safer, different bill than I normally take. And maybe that's a good thing this week. - David is another guy that tends to pop in these softer events with the water dent field. He certainly has the upside. 8,900, there's certainly a world where taking the approach spends is taken here. We're going a little bit more balanced. We'll be avoiding that top tier, but you can really load up on these high upside, high seven, high 8K range guys. Certainly we'll have some credence this week. Audience, you're on the clock, we need two. It looks like there might be one in, but we'll still need that second. While we wait, love to get your feedback on the Davis pick, David. - Yeah, look, I mean, Ken Davis has this weird ability to perform really well at these club down spots. It's almost like when you start taking the drive around with his hand, he actually starts performing a lot better. So, we're seeing that across time, including at another Pete Dye designer at Harvard Town. Obviously Pete Dye's had some influence on the Donald Ross design here at Sedgefield as well. So, and he's playing good golf and put it down to his hidden therapy that he's introduced to his routine or whatever you want to do. If that's giving him a mental edge where he feels that he's in a bit of space and he's able to come out and compete, it's obviously working. By the way, Detroit golf club where he's won twice, both of his PGA2 victories is also Donald Ross design. Boom, there you have it. Audience, it looks like the picks are in. I am a little bit upset. That is definitely a steal from me. I love Andrew Novak and you know that because I take him almost every week. I don't understand why they don't raise his price. He's certainly performed better than the price that they're putting on him. I will be overweight on Andrew Novak this week again. I thought he was gonna get back to that otherwise, I would have taken it with my last pick. But I think that's an absolutely great pick. He's probably my favorite play in that low 7K range. And we're also going to lock in for the second selection with the audience, Thomas Dietrich, who's also playing really well. Another good value pick. I think the audience is rosters off to a really good start. Spence, we'd love to get your take on what the audience has done and then you're up with your fourth pick. - I legitimately don't know what's going on right now. I'm gonna have $7,000 left over. I should have taken Thomas Dietrich, apparently, instead of Cameron Davis. I was gonna go back to back with those two. I like both picks that were made for the reasons that you just talked about with Novak. I think Dietrich is one of the safer plays on the board inside of my model. I guess I'm gonna go down the board here with the selection. I talked about this on my action network show. And this is a similar answer to the Eric Cole discussion that I had of an inaccurate golfer who's also not long off the tee. But I want everybody to at least hear these statistics and we can go of why a Bermuda surface might be the best year for him to find high end success. So I looked at the last 26 rounds that this golfer had played since it was ever, the last 26 rounds were him were non Bermuda. Then just to at least just keep the same blueprint in place. I looked at the last 26 rounds that this player had played on Bermuda. That's gonna date it back to the very end stretch of 2023. I don't wanna provide data and have you think that that's from like three months ago. We're dating this back to the end of last year. But look at Ben Griffin here. He has 25.2 strokes game putting on Bermuda during those 26 rounds, negative 3.75 during that recent cold stretch on non Bermuda opportunities. I think that when you put him on a Bermuda course, you get a much different golfer in Griffin. I thought this price tag was far too cheap at what we're getting here in the lower $7,000 section. - Ooh, and I think it's a good point, Spencer's making in that there's some interesting value here in the sense that this is a watered down event. So some of these guys are mispriced. And I think there are some guys down here in these lower tiers like Ben Griffin, like Andrew Novak that, you know, I could have been pricing the 8K range and I don't think you want to bet an eye. So that's where you can get kind of sneaky in finding your value and value in making these more balanced builds. David, would love your feedback on the last few picks. And then you're up with your fort. - Yeah, look, I'll endorse the being growth and play from Spencer. I think that's really sharp. He finished fourth here and his first look at Segefield. That was always eye catching to me when a golfer can come out in their very first appearance at a golf course and perform really well for Brazil to highly and finish. And then fifth at the John Deere class recently as well, which TBCD run is pretty correlated to what you expect. Segefield obviously wanting, obviously wanting highly and finishes at a golf course. We are driving the XC is really important. And then low scoring as well. - All right, there you have it. You got about 7700 per pick left. Where are you going with your fourth pick? - Yeah, so I'm kind of looking at what you've got left, Joel. I'm gonna go and take Keegan Bradley. He is a good performer at the players. He's got a seventh, sixteenth and fifth in the last few renditions around TPC sawgrass. Obviously that's highly correlated. And he just pops really well in terms of the driving accuracy acumen that we're looking at over the last three months. We've seen a big improvement in his driving accuracy. He's ranked 17th in this field over the last three months. And then in terms of stroke scan approach, he's ranked 13th over the last six months in this field. So kind of presents that all round game that I'm really looking at. 43rd at the moment, the Fed has got players. So currently in the mix of the BMW Championship. Being an upcoming Ryder Cup captain, obviously he wants to be putting some good performances out there at the moment and really showing that that selection was warranted. So I like him at the value. And I think he's a good selection for a nice safety pick this week. - All right, Keegan Bradley, it is. I got two here. I'm gonna start by taking Mad McNealy, who, you know, again, I don't necessarily look at Mad as the perfect course fit, but I think at 8100, I think it depends on this is a lot of upside. And Mad is one of those guys that in the model is probably never gonna show what's like the highest upside player. But the reason for that is Mad has a short game and putting game that can go nuclear. And when he does that, right, he can just, you know, lap the field. He is his really great results. I think this is a field that he has really high potential in at 8100, I think he's underpriced. And I think it's a good way to kind of balance out a squad like I'm drafting with a guy like him with that upside. And then for my second pick here, I'm going to take Mac Meisner, who we mentioned on the show a few times recently, you know, you might look at his most recent result and say, you know, question it a little bit right at the three and open, he shot a 74 on Sunday. Other than that, he was in really good shape. He ended up with T-59, but if you look before that, he was on an absolute tear. Now, keeping in mind, he was on a tear playing in watered down events, right? You know, the Barracuda Championship, even the John Deere wasn't the strong field, but that's what this is. And when he's playing in these events, he tends to show up and he does do well with these low scoring events, right, where you can go 17 under, 19 under, those are those events where he's shown up. That's another one where I think it'll be similar scoring. I think he's in really good form right now this year. And it hasn't just been the last month or two. If you look even back to earlier in the season, all the way back to, you know, April, he got 10th at the Valero in March, he was T-26, T-23 at the Valspar in Puerto Rico. So this has been an all year thing. This isn't just a flash in the pan right now. Even at the Charles Schwab, he was T-5 at Myrtle Beach, he was T-13. He's playing really good. And at 7,100, there's plenty of upside. I actually put Mac in a similar category as Victor Perez when I said, you know, there might be some guys that are safer, but if you're looking to get a guy with upside in a GPP, those are the types of guys I can get you to the top 10 finishes. So I kind of followed your flow there from the first round with the matching initials in my two picks, first two picks. So there you go. I don't know how that happens, but here we are. David would love your feedback on McNeely and Meisner and then you're up with your fifth pick. - Yeah, and look, I actually considered continuing the train just for the sake of good television and taking Bohosla to keep the BH trained going, who's also in the field was an option. But yeah, look, I don't like Bohosla for the tournament. So I couldn't really have to do it. And then I could have done Hayden Buckley as well. I found a few inverted the initials, Gidur HB and said BH. Yeah, look, I think McNeely is a really interesting spot because his ownership is a little bit depressed and we've seen that he has the upside. He's not gonna pop in models because he doesn't necessarily have the right course fit, but there's always a name or two who managed to find their way around and he does look to be playing improved golf this year. So I think that's a really interesting lever spot. Meisner might have probably less infused by but then McNeely, but look, he has displayed really, really good acumen in some of those lower field events that he's had recently and his game does tend to be trending in the right direction. And so look, maybe income add in and surprisingly with the high end finish. I'm gonna go and find some value myself. At the moment, I'm gonna dive right down to the middle of the six day range. I'm gonna take Zach Blair at 6,400 who looks wildly missed priced for the standard that he's been playing. Bear among the Zach Blair, right? He had this as a golfer who suffered an injury and had surgery was out for a year and a half and he was playing at a very high level previously. That included at Wai Lake Country Club where he played very well. Another kind of fiddly course where there's lots of wedges, lots of midions, lots of driving it, perceived required, performed really, really well on those golf courses. And finished second at TPC River Highlands behind Keegan Bradley in my previous selection. Another golf course that demands a lot of driving actually in order to be successful. We've also seen him show up in some weird spots like it was 26 at the U.S. Open which was a very, very impressive finish for him down at Pinehurst. And then 46 at the John T. Klesig, nothing to space about either. So look, I think it's 6,400, he's too cheap. If we look at the last 30 days, he has eight in this field for driving accuracy and 23rd for approach. He's gained on approach in five of his last seven starts. And that's included two starts where he was basically at field average with the only two starts he wasn't gaining on approach. And that's usually not exactly as strong a suit to his game. So really pleasing to see him moving up the rankings in that regard over the last 30 days. - Boom, Zach Blair. Certainly some strong value. The first pick off the board in the six K range spent. So I would love your take on the last few picks and then you're up with your fifth. - I am probably a little bit different from David where I liked the Meisner pick from you Joel. I thought he was an intriguing target. There's gonna be ownership around him but there were high end marks and safety totals like all built together in my models. So I thought he was an interesting name. He was somebody that I was keeping in mind to potentially put into a build. I keep talking about this lineup of my not necessarily being exactly where I wanted to go. And really the flip that I've done is I'm just running it from a safety portion at this point. Like I've lost a lot of the upside candidates that I wanted and with this being a volatile event with all the weather that's coming into play, I'm trying to find the golfers that graded a little bit safer. Now Ben Griffin would. - My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laughing me to this day. - Not everyone gets B2B. But with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be. - Making your cat happy is a number one priority. Priority number two is keeping a clean litter box. Fresh Step Out Stretch Litter helps you do both. 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Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery, so you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-GRANGER, click Granger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. Probably be the one name of that group. That would be worse than the rest of them. Like even Eric Colgrade had pretty safe for me. All things being considered. But I'm gonna go to the only other name that I have inside of my top 10 for safety. Wasn't planning to do this when the show started. I'm gonna take Cameron Young. - Cameron Young, interesting. Listen, he certainly has upside. I like the pen. He wasn't on my radar, but now that I think through it, I think it's certainly a unique way to build. - I also wanted to have, and you guys have all these cool trends that are going on. I need to have two Cameron's. Like, we'll build this in a different way. - That's fair. You gotta get on the trend train. That's how you build a truly balanced lineup. Audience, you got two here. So let's get those nominations in. We gotta lock those picks in. While we wait to lock in the audience too, David, any interest in Cameron Young this week? - Yeah, look, Stroke's game's name narrative is obviously, yeah, is gonna be the theme of the week. I like the double Cameron played there. Like, Cameron Young, right? Everyone's got this narrative. It's like the guy can't win, he's gonna choke, et cetera. I agree with all that. The thing is, as a result of that, you're going to get depressed ownership. Like, people just do not wanna play Cameron Young because he has burned people so many times in the past. If this is gonna be a really windy tournament, look at the PGA Championship 2022 and what he did. At Southern Hills, it was an extremely windy tournament. It was a massive weather wave that came in and a very high end to Finn, she probably actually should have won the tournament. He was within us elections this week, that week. So that's why I remember it so perfectly. 'Cause he should have probably gone out when it instead he handed it to Justin Thomas. So he played very well in windy conditions before. Do you need him to go out and win necessarily? No, like if he finishes top five, top 10, which he is very, very capable of doing, you can still get a return on your investment at 9700. So another really interesting leverage option that both of you guys have identified. - All right, I love the audience. Great job lacking those picks in. So the first pick is going to be Luke Clayton, who's the amateur we've mentioned a few times on this show. He has gotten really hot over the summer, over the last few weeks. Miss the guy, we have an other net, has played some really good golf, and they will also be locking in Ben Cole's at 6900. Spence, we'd love to get your feedback on the audience, two picks here, and then you're up with your last. - I'm conflicted on Luke Clayton. My model continues to really like him. I worry that he loses the driver here. I worry that some of the around the green and putting stuff is not necessarily the best fit. The statistical form in my model still likes him. Like, I don't know what to do with him. I saw Ben Silverman come up multiple times in the chat. I really like Ben Silverman this week. I'm kind of in this spot right now, where I'm trying to figure out if I want to end this with Ben Silverman, Brendan Todd, maybe Denny McCarthy. I'd probably rather just leave money on the table though, 'cause I think all three are very similar to one another. I'm going to go a little bit different than my model. My model technically says I should take Ben Silverman. Seven top 40 finishes in his last eight tournaments. I'm going to instead go with Brendan Todd and go with the course history that we've gotten from him. - Brendan Todd, I looked at him as well. The course history's there. He seems to be a really good course fit. The only real question you ever around Todd is his current form, but you know, he just kind of pops in some of these tumors, especially the courses he likes. So it's a chance you'd have to take. - I don't know if this is a good or a bad thing, and we could speculate on it. He is 70th entering this tournament in the FedEx Cup standing. So he is right on the bubble one way or another. Maybe that's a bad thing. I don't want to come on this show and pretend like, I know that Brendan Todd is going to perform for that reason. If anything, it probably likely goes the other way, but I think this is a really nice course fit for him where he gets the end of season at a tournament. That has historically been very good for him. - I think you have to lean on that. It's a tournament that's been good for him that fits his game in this field. I think he certainly is upside. So I like that pick. David would love your feedback on the last few picks. And then how are you rounding out your squad? - I mean, just a welcome to the chat as well. To the Cina Chard, the goat of the first round leader and member of the one daily team, make sure that you check out the discount code down below 'cause the ROI in the last seven weeks in case you haven't noticed, it's like plus 120%. So for seven dollars a week, you're not doing too badly. But I love this all-time comment from Cia with a team camp could also go Campio, Camp Campos and Kimio Vijaygas. What a lineup that would be. Probably leaving the seven thousand dollars on the table that's been threatened to do early in the show if you drafted all of those guys on the same team. Yeah, look, Brendan Todd, really good course fit. I do think with the 70th place in the veer's cup, he needs to have a week this week. Doesn't mean he needs to go and finish top 20, but I think that he's soon gonna be in the frame of mind that he needs to come out before, right? And he needs to come out and find a cup, which I think he can do, et cetera thousand. I think that he can deliver you some value on the basis of that. I'm gonna go and take a little bit of a risk on Harris English here. For the record, I would have taken Thomas D-tree if he had been on the board, and Tim Audience congrats on that one. I do think D-tree has really good safety, kind of similar to Cameron Young. Nobody wants to play him, 'cause he's not gonna win you a tournament because he just has never won a tournament. And it continues to power to do so, but he's got a lot of safety. Harris English obviously a very, very good performer in some of the high end spots. Now, we look at what he's done in the majors this year, 41st at the US Open 50th at the Open Championship in a very windy, rainy edition, 18th at the PGA Championship, 22nd at the Masters. So, four May cuts in all the majors. Also at the players, which I mentioned is extremely correlated. He finished 19th earlier this year. We are relying on a bit of turnaround on his approach metrics, obviously, but he's got some good correlated format, like half a 10 to eighth. Windham Championship here, he's had the chance previously as well. And I do think that his game fits in terms of all round driving capacity. He's not overly short of the tee, not the longest hit of the tee, he's not overly short, but he's still gonna find you fairways. And then in his around the green metrics, he really shines through. In this field, last six months, he's a little even for around the green, 23rd for putting as well. So, he's playing good enough for me to want to take him at the price. - Harris English, you know, he hasn't even mentioned too much on this show more recently, but I'm with you. I think he has the upside. I like his game at 8K. I think he's a really interesting selection there to round out your squad. All right, to round out my squad, my final pick, I am settled on Maddie Schmid, who showed up at the 3M Open, that gave you a really good result. I think he's just playing some good golf right now. You know, I think long term duty was a, it might not be the best course fit, but in the middle of the pack, T26 of the Olympics, you know, it really just had one poor round, was good at the 3M Open. I think this could be another week where he could, you know, have a good week at 7K and chose some upside. I like the way he's hitting his driver, the ball striking right now, is heading in the right direction. That's a wrap for the draft this week. As Sia has demanded in the trap, we appreciate you, Sia has always thanks for stopping in. Smash that like button, give us a follow, it goes a long way. Let us know which team you think is going to win. We will track it and come back next week to crown a champion before we get you all out of here tonight. We will be providing some first round leaders or maybe just general bets we like to get us out. David, we'll start with you in the first round leader market. Who are you looking at here? - I'm going to segue this segment with your last election day, Joel, at Medishmed, who's at 7,000. Because one of my first round leaders' elections is also at 7,000. I'm going to propose a bit for you. You can name the prize, Medishmed versus CTPAN, who finishes higher. If both missed the cut, then no blood is drawn. I will take whatever money that you want on that one. - So what's the bet? - CTPAN or Medishmed, who has the highest finish? - What is the winner again? - You get the call, that's the ultimate major, Joel, like you get to make the number. - You can steal my next draft pick, whatever you wish. - See, the thing is, I like CTPAN too. So I don't really like, I'm not targeting CTPAN. I don't love this bet. I'll do it for fun because you called me out and we can add some fun to the follow, but I don't want to put a major dollar amount on it, so we'll call it a pizza bet. - Pizza bet on us. - Yeah, check it out there. So yeah, CTPAN, I'm going to get him for a first round leader at 90 to one. I am also going to make a bold prediction with the winner. We've got to say that there's no play whatsoever on Thursday and Friday morning looks very, very windy. And so Thursday PM, which I think is going to become Friday PM, I think is going to be the best round, T-times to be on for the first round leader. So that's my logic here. CTPAN playing very, very good golf. He's one half a town Pete Dierson. He said he's second of the winning championship previously. He's second recently at the John D. Classic. Played very well at the Olympics. He was a bronze medalist at Tokyo and he was 18th at the golf national. Another core set demands a lot of driving accuracy. So I like him to be first round leader at 90 to one. Got to take my boy Brian Harmon, 50 to one at the moment of first round leader markets. His win price is narrowed drastically. He's in that right with the way. If we get that with the right in terms of Thursday afternoon being Friday afternoon, 50 to one seems extremely generous on Brian Harmon to be your first round leader. Billy Horsham, see we've come in my last two surrounded out both at 40 to one. - Mm, I love it. - Spence, how about you? Do you have any first leaders or matchup teams you like this week? - I think that's an interesting take that David just brought up in the first round leader market. He very well may end up being correct on that. And I had all morning times. I'm going to add bazade and how it in Harmon. You can get Harmon at 55 to one if you shop around. Bazade and how to 60. I went with Eric Cole at 80. I went with Ben Griffin at 75. Those are the two morning guys that I've talked about a lot on the show. Mac Meisner 100. And I actually thought the Sanjay number at 35 to one over double of where he was pre-tournament was a really interesting price on Sanjay. - Boom, I love it. I love it. All right, I just got a couple for you and then we'll get us out of here. I'm going to start with Matt McNeely at 60 to one. I'm with you spends in Mac Meisner at 100 to one. I think that that's too big of a number there. But my favorite first round leader play is going to be Andrew Novak at 80 to one. And then it's a really big number. And my last, the least of the lowest odds, but I think someone who can really show up, especially in the first round, the audience took him. Siwu Kim, he likes this course. He's played well this year. I like Siwu as a first round. One round to kind of have a big run at it. 40 to one is then you're getting pretty good odds for a guy at the top of the field. - I mean, note that last week, Joel and I both cheered at Dicky Matsuyama's first round leader who heard at 33 to one. And we've both got Siwu Kim on our first round leader markets this week. Coincidence? I think not. - Yeah, we do it again. And it's a similar range and even a little better odds. I think we brought it back. Let's get another W. This time we put all of our money on it. Every penny, you know, take out a mortgage, take out a loan, all of it on our first round leader. Don't actually do that. It's a joke, wearing fun, maybe a couple of dollars. But if you put it on, you wins and it's a good idea. Good luck this week. Did I forget anything? - Well, let's do something a little bit different here than we normally do. We have a couple of minutes before we can get out of here. Just as a random thing. I think we've talked a lot about plays, maybe not as much as we normally do. What is your favorite play? And we can just go across the line. The one favorite play that every single person other than yourself took. - I've already said it multiple times on this show. So mine's David, Andrew Novak. I love Andrew Novak. He doesn't carry the even ownership that I think he should be carrying at this price. At 7100, I think they've criminally underpriced him. He's putting too good at golf. Andrew Novak all day. - I like, I do like Thomas Dietrich from the audience. I think that he gives you really good safety. I do think he does eventually go out and win a tournament, right? Like he is too talented to golf and not too. He will eventually get over that hump. I don't know if it's going to be this week, but I think that his safety numbers on a golf course that should really suit, he's playing some very good golf lately. And because of that narrative of like Thomas Dietrich has burned me so many times in class, I don't want to put my line up. You get depressed ownership. Like he shouldn't be at 10 or 11% ownership for me. He should be much higher given the price for areas. - I guess for me, I mean, like the obvious answer is harming because it threw my whole draft into a loop. But if it wasn't harming, 'cause that's the easy route to go here, I'm going to join David with Thomas Dietrich. That was the second most irritated that I was with a selection. I really wanted to find a way to put Dietrich onto this build. - Yeah, I would say Dietrich kind of shows something more easy. I think he's playing better than we even seen him in the past. That putter can get really hot. And those are the kind of things you got to look for. Like some of these guys just are never going to gain that many strokes putting it with his upside with the powder. He doesn't need to light the world on part of the ball striking. This positive ball striking with that powder upside can yield some really big results, which we've seen more recently from him. Good question, Spence. Anything else before we get us out of here? - What a bold prediction from C. I'll shall see a 20 pineapple pizzas of Cam Davis and Billy Gaussure in a playoff in Cam Davis wins. I'll put that on the record right now. So 20, see it, if this happens. 20 pineapple pizzas coming direct to you, along with lots of sports. - Yes. 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Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Wyndham Championship! The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Wyndham Championship First-Round Leader picks!
