Archive.fm

Win Daily Sports

Rory Mcllroy Returns: Genesis Scottish Open PGA Picks, Props, & First Round Leaders | PGA DraftCast

Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Genesis Scottish Open! The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Scottish Open First Round Leader picks!
Duration:
1h 18m
Broadcast on:
10 Jul 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

We are off to Scotland for some links golf, as Rory McIlroy returns after his heart-breaking US Open defeat to defend the Scottish Open.

FEEL LIKE A KING!
Grab an annual Win Daily Sports Membership before The Open Championship at Royal Troon and receive a MASSIVE 50% off!

Learn more about DeepDiveGolf here and grab the PROMO code here:
https://windailysports.com/deep-dive-golf/ref/47/
This deal is for a LIMITED TIME ONLY so lock in TODAY!

Remember that Win Daily Premium membership grants you access to golf and ALL our sports coverage! From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine.

Get access to our proven winning golf betting tips and golf DFS plays. You can speak directly with the guys, receive expert 1-on-1 coaching for DFS plus betting advice, access our projections, lineup optimizer, premium articles, tools, & expert chat.

Find out DeepDiveGolf's P/L for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here:
https://windailysports.com/golf/deepdivegolf-2024-pl-tracker/ref/47/

The PGA Draft Cast is the only show on YouTube where YOU the audience draft a six-golfer PGA DFS line-up alongside the experts! The format is a standard snake-style draft. Audience members nominate their favorite plays in the chat and the first golfer to be named a second time is the audience's pick.

Follow David (@deepdivegolf), Joel (@DraftMasterFlex), Sia (@SiaNejad), and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) on Twitter.

#Scottish Open #GenesisScottishOpen #RolexSeries #ScottishOpenTips #ScottishOpenPicks #ScottishOpenDFS #ScottishOpenBets #ScottishOpenFRL #RenaissanceClub #TheRenaissanceClub

#PGADFS #FantasyGolf #GolfBetting #GolfBets #DFSGolf #GolfDFS #FRLBets #FRLPicks #FantasyGolfPicks #DraftKingsGolfPicks #DraftKings #FanDuel #PGAFantasyPicks #PGAPicksThisWeek #PGAPicks #GolfPicks #PGADraftKings #PGADraft #PGALiveDraft #PGATips #PGAPicks #PGABets #PGABetting #ThePlayers #TheMasters #ScottieScheffler #Scheffler #McIlroy #RoryMcIlroy #RoryMcIlroyUSOpen #TigerWoods #DPWT #DPWorldTour #LIVGolf #LIVPGA #PIFPGA #PIF

Want to teach your kid's financial literacy, but not sure where to start? Greenlight can help! With Greenlight, parents can keep an eye on kids' spending and saving, while kids and teens use a card of their own to build money confidence. As a parent, you can send instant money transfers, set up chores, automate allowance, and more. It's a convenient way to run your household, customized to your family's needs, and the easy way to raise financially smart kids. Get started with Greenlight today, and get your first month free at greenlight.com/pod [Music], and make sure to subscribe to our channel for more information. [Music], and make sure to subscribe to our channel for more information. [Music], and make sure to subscribe to our channel for more information. [Music], PGA Nation! We are back, and we are going from the John Deere Classic to the Genesis Scottish Open, a little bit of a different atmosphere this week, a little different location, but a lot of fun to be had. I am coming off back to back victories, going for the 3P. Who is going to take me down? We're going to find out tonight, you have an exciting show ahead of a spin. I'm doing well, that's rarefied error that you would get yourself into there, Joel. I pride myself on doing that a handful of times, and I think the record is five in a row if you're shooting for that, so if you can get two, six in a row, and do the double 3P, which has yet to be accomplished on this show, that's the ultimate goal here. I remember that, you were on it, and that was relatively recently, was it earlier this year or late last year? It was one or the other. I'm not 100% sure, we were talking about this before the show started. I've been very hot and cold, and you said it's like the Ricky Bobby thing, I've legitimately been first or last, and I would say the last two and a half months worth of contests, and maybe it's a little bit too aggressive some of these lineups that I've put together on this show, but I'm always trying to view it from a GPP mindset and large field contests here, and not necessarily in the lens of just the four of us playing together, like how can we actually make a build that can take down a millionaire maker or something like that? And with these contests that are coming up, we're going to have some really interesting events to consider, and that moves us into the Open Championship next week, but there's always a high ceiling potential, and as we were talking about Joel, you are the big money man that does seem to cash for a lot of dollar amounts in these situations, so hopefully somebody in the audience, if it's not one of us, ends up taking down that big amount of disco around. I appreciate that. I hope someone participating in the draft cap takes a big take down this week, and we also have our eye on next week. This is a great tournament to kind of set up the open, where we're already kind of moving over. We're playing a links course, David, we love your take. How do you feel about the Scottish Open set up for the Open, and how you doing, mate? I'm good, mate. I'm good. Congratulations on the back-to-back wins, although bittersweet because I've been second on both occasions, so congratulations to you, really hoping that I can get over the hump, being stuck in that third position on the draft is mainly what I blame for that. But yeah, no, look, excited for the event. These co-sanctioned events are always fantastic. I think it's a great opportunity, and it's a really interesting storyline, bringing all these DP World Tour players to play on a PGA Tour event. Obviously, it's started because a lot of these PGA guys come over anyway, the players got choked and hit at the open championship and get their climatized, and now all those DP World Tour players have a path where you win this week, you've got a two-year exemption on the PGA Tour, so it's a huge incentive and really, really interesting. I hope some of those storylines get to come to fruition because I think it'll be a fantastic watch. Definitely a lot of motivation. Definitely a good week, like everyone who's going to want to play next week, that's the last major, and that's going to be the big, like, it's not the end of the season, obviously, but it's the last major. So, it's the last big tournament to kind of go after. I feel like if you're planning to go hard after it next week, this is a great week to be prepared, find out what players are playing well, playing well on this Ling Style course. To me, this week almost goes hand-in-hand with next week. Before we dive into the tournament this week, I want to just get both of your take. Prize or not surprise on Keegan Bradley being selected as the U.S. Captain for the Ryder Company. Do you want to take a first, David? Sure. I spoke about this earlier on my regularly radio segment on New Zealand Sports Radio, ACNZ, and I was shocked. It feels absurd. Not so much just the effect that he is the captain, but the fact that no one had had a conversation with them up until the phone call when they actually called them, like, "Hey, do you want to be the Ryder Cup captain?" And part of me wonders, Jordan Spiethon, Justin Thomas, a part of the selection process, whether they're now eliminated, one extra captain's pick so that they can make an avenue to get onto the team by putting Keegan Bradley as the captain. But there's so many other players that I think have better credentialed. Stuart Sinkham, that coach, I think, with top of that list, you've got three decouples, David's loved the third, all these guys with more experience, probably better records. I mean, Keegan played in two Ryder Cups, he lost in both of them. Despite the fact he had a winning record, the team's still lost, and I just find it bizarre that they went to that route. I can understand Tiger Opting out. I think that he might look to take the next Ryder Cup poster in Europe, trying to reverse history with multiple decades now of team USA, not able to win on European soil. But bizarre selection, absolutely absurd expense. So here's the thing with my take on it. And I know that this might not be viewed in the same lens as everybody else with it. But for me, when we look at the Ryder Cup in general, take any sport. It doesn't even matter what sport we want to talk about. We'll use the NBA, that the NBA is the sport that is probably the nearest and theorist to my heart. But if we wanted a true representation and a true, I understand putting a player in there that the players respect and the camaraderie and the chemistry that comes into play, I get all of that. But if we really are trying to be serious about it, this would be no different in my eyes. And I've always viewed it this way. Every Ryder Cup, every President's Cup, every go-around of this when we try to figure out the captain. It would be like LeBron James putting himself as the coach of the Lakers. Like, I would rather have a real coach in there or somebody that has a data-driven reason for why. And I know that, I'm sure Keegan's going to get somebody that's going to give him more of an in-depth answer. I hope this isn't the boys' club is making all the calls of who's playing with who because we don't need to go back down that path of everything that we've seen. But, you know, I know people love the Ryder Cup. That's probably my hot take of at the end of the day where if you could put a different group of people in there and somebody that actually was going to call the shots correctly, you would get much more optimal decisions that were going to be made. So, you know, it is what it is at the end of the day if the players think that this is the right call. I'm not going to question them on it because, I mean, at the end of the day, it's not going to probably be somebody that's making the quote-unquote optimal decision to begin with. But matter who they pick. I would agree with both of you. I think for me, it really comes down to it just seems odd and it does feel a lot of, you know, the Netflix show narrative playing into him not getting selected and then getting this pick versus like this is a position meant to be, and sorry if I'm oversimplifying it, but it's meant to be reserved for an older golfer probably at the end of his career is not really competing anymore and is like his sign off to captain this team as a way of bringing them up and he can still very much still competing and he's not in that stage of his career. And I think that's where it felt awkward where it felt like there are guys like Stuart Sink and Steve Sticker who are at the end of their careers and like how many more opportunities are they going to have for this where it felt like that's where that should have gone and Keegan should have this opportunity, but in years from now, not right now while he's still competing. I mean, feasibly Keegan Bradley can still make this team, like he could actually be playing like somewhat good enough golf, like if he strung some victories together he could qualify, he's only 38. Like he's got every opportunity to actually make it and then what happens is he becomes like a playing captain, Joel's got a fantastic freeze frame at the moment as well with his usual WD at the beginning of the draft cast, but look, all things being said, I still think the team USA wins, regardless of what Keegan Bradley does as captain, because Bette Black just suits Team USA so much better than Team Europe, and I think like kind of no matter what he's probably going to get a win regardless, I don't see how he can like completely screw it up. So regardless of everything else, it's a weird decision, but they're probably still going to win anyway. So it doesn't matter. Yeah, I don't think it's going to matter. And I mean, Zach even said it in the chat with like the LeBron discussion, I mean, look at what LeBron has realistically done in this situation. He's gotten JJ Radick to be the coach, he's put his son on the team and they're paying him $6 million or whatever the amount actually is. When you have a built-in influence on what is going on, and this is where it becomes interesting to your point David, what happens if Keegan finds himself in the same exact position that he did last go around to where he is a fringe selection one way or another. This is where you're like, I'm not leaving myself on the board, like I'm going to legitimately be there. And maybe that's what was said to him at the beginning when I know they didn't have discussions with him, but when they had the discussion, it may have been two Joel's on the screen is a wild move there, but I don't know. I mean, it's one of those things where I agree with you David at the end of the day. You look at recent Ryder cups, they're so heavily skewed and weighted. I don't think you can realistically mess it up, although Europe has done a much better job of statistically trying to build teams that fit a course. And I'd be curious to see if they do this go around. And I guess the problem is, is if they do, do you have enough upside to actually get the job and cross the finish line, maybe you have some high end talent and you have some of these lower tiered names to where you're going to need options like, like a hoigard's going to have to be better than he's been, but there are options that can fit that course. The main thing is they're going to need lots of guys with long driving distance. I just don't know if they have enough high end talent to do that. I think it's a case where they even need to get guys like Adrian Moronk over from Littor and like, you know, those sort of guys need to be performing well and getting some of those strong drivers across, but I love this comment from Zach Jeffers, I just key in every morning in the team room, like I'm going in boys, I just love that. The last thing I want to add on this Ryder Cup kind of discussion before we move off of it is when you think about the live aspect of picking guys, I saw something float around that Phil Nicholson was being considered as the Ryder Cup captain, which at this stage would have been baffling was Phil was dead to golf a year ago. I mean, he was like not being considered being blasted everywhere. The fact if he would have gotten chosen this year just so quickly after his Ryder Cup captain as he's still playing on the Littor would have just been really shocking. You know, obviously the Keegan selection is also pretty surprising, but not quite as much as it would have been if they went with Phil, who was like became arch enemy to golf number one when he moved over to live and he made those comments that he did, you know, I think Phil is the more fitting pick from the standpoint of a legend at the end of his career. Like this is the time where he should be a captain and where he would make sense. But it just there's so much controversy right now with him and with golf. It would have been hard to actually do that. Did Greg Norman hack the Zoom call to try to get Phil Nicholson in there because that's the like wildest statement. There's yeah, I mean, you cannot put Phil Nicholson in there with everything that's happened. Yeah, which it probably would have ended up just being an overall distraction more than it would have been, you know, able to execute on on getting a win. Anyway, it was interesting that it'll be a fun year as we as we get ready for that. But we have a whole over a year we have like 13, 14 months before that comes to fruition, but we have 30 no 48 hours until we have this tournament in Scotland going off. So we have a draft tonight. Let's get into it before we pull the draft board up. We're going to have a dual course breakdown with spent and David today on what to look for in Scotland this week. Yeah, I'm going to keep this very short. I'll I'll kick it over to David to talk about comp courses that he had in his mind for how the Renaissance Club is going to play. But if you look at this venue, you get tricky green complexes, that's going to come into effect on most of these massively oversized locations. That's a quirk that dope implements quite frequently for his venues. To me, though, the one difference here, and this is the one difference maker outside of the weather, that's the weather for me is the nuance factor to where it can be as easy as burn v-spurgers to 2,200 in 2019 as hard as Zander's win two years ago at seven under. But to get back to the texture of the surface, you get a fescue surface here. So real stagnant feel that players are going to experience on their putts. You're going to be able to be very creative around the green. That is the ability to putt from off the surface. That's the ability to maybe not even putt with a putter in some of these situations. But you add all that together. You got this three step process in my model where I was trying to find three things at its core. For DFS and all that, we can add weather in on the back end. It's a very wet venue right now. Try to make the decisions at the end of the day to see exactly what you're going to get for a European style course. But for me, the three step process would be length. I do want golfers that can add length off the tee. I looked on putting for similar green complexes that were going to be slower than expected. And then proximity for the course here that we're going to get just under 70% of its shots that occur from 150 plus yards. So I did a lot of adding those three things together to try to figure out where I wanted to be in my model, spat out a very specific skill set that I was trying to find here. But I'll kick it over to you, David, to talk a little bit about what you think about this course and how you can take advantage of it. Yeah, the most important thing I think I'd say about the Renaissance Club is that it's like Lynx Golf and White. It's not as stern a test as you'll see at many of these other Lynx courses. It really does need the wind to play tough and, as you mentioned, that Xander Schoflade minus seven, like there was a weather factor involved. Like all Lynx courses, it's very exposed. It's got that going for it, but it can give up a lot of birdies if there's no wind. And this week in particular, it looks calm as anything. It looks like there's no wind out there. Yes, we're going to have some rain, but that really is coming in like Wednesday, maybe a bit of Thursday morning. And if anything, that's just going to soften the course up. So the key to Lynx Golf, really, it's the ability to control your ball flight. It gives you lots of options. You don't necessarily need this typical PGA to a ball flight, where it's just like hit as high as you possibly can to try and stop on the green. You can take these low kind of angles of attack into these green complexes just to run the ball up. You need creativity around the green, so short game padding is always key in Lynx courses. And that just comes, you've got a lot of tight lies around these greens and that means it creates opportunities for the creativity. Again, you can hit it with the Texas wedge and putt, or you can do a little bump and run with the 7-iron, or you can do a flop shot or lots of different options around the green complexes. So those would be the key. I'd say in the DP World Tour, the Alfred Dunnel Lynx is a really good comp. It kind of encompasses a multitude of different Lynx courses, but it does tend to be pretty low scoring as well in terms of the score to wind tends to be like minus 20 or lower range. And that's a good one to look at as well as just general open championship form. You've got courses like Hillside, Himmelen's got hints of Lynx course to it as well. And then don't neglect this Scottish Open as well. Be in mind that this event carried on from 2008 to 2019 on the DP World Tour, Edda's venue, and then switched to being co-sanctioned with the VTO Tour. So you do need to be looking at both of those course histories. Then you've got the Scottish Championship as well nearby the Terence course, which I think is also comparable in other low scoring course. So plenty of options and lots of history. And just as I said at the beginning of the show at the top, I think very interesting that you're getting all these DP World Tour players across, and that does present opportunities because a lot of the US-based DFS players don't know much about these DP World Tour guys. And if you can get it edge, it's likely in some of those names down the bottom of the board. I would totally agree. The edges to be had knowing, having that deeper knowledge of some of these European guys, maybe finding a player or two that other people aren't on that can win you some money. We're going to draft them now. We're going to get into it. We'll pull the draft board up because I will be going first. We will allow a change up this week. We'll let David go second, spends go third, audience will go fourth, you'll get two, and then we'll come back Snake style as a reminder. If you are new to the show, if you go and log in on YouTube channel and get into the chat, you can participate in the draft and draft with the audience. The way it works is the first audience member makes a nomination. The first golfer that is seconded by another audience member is the pick. And then we go for all six picks. The only other thing to keep in mind is you do need to make sure you stay within a drafting salary. So you cannot just take all the best players. You do have to be able to actually afford your lineup. With the first pick, I'm going to go ahead and take Rory McElroy right off the board. He is the most expensive golfer. But in my mind, he is clearly the best golfer in this field. He won this tournament last year. There's nothing to not like about his game. I think the last, he didn't feed off in a couple weeks if that may be your only concern. But I think I mentioned this last time that I drafted him since May. So over the last two months, he's played in five tournaments. He hasn't lost strokes in any category in the five tournaments. So that's to tell you enough, Rory's playing well, it should be a good course fit. David, you're next. But I love your take. Any reason not to play Rory this week? I mean, I guess the only thing which is the obvious that he hasn't played since he was open, heartbreaking to feed. He's going to have a ton of questions from the media because of his choice to opt out of the travellers. So now all that kind of pent up, questioning about what happened and how he's recovered that's all going to fall on him this week. And saying that he's got a pretty decent history of backing up really heartbreaking results with good results. We've seen that previously in 2011 even at the Masters when he threw that away before too long. He was actually a major champion, a different venue. And then yeah, other venues he's done very, very similar when he lost the Open Championship to Cam Smith, for example, he won pretty shortly after, and then won the Phoenix Cup playoffs, right? So I don't think there's anything to be too concerned about Rory. It's still Rory McIlroy. He may actually come out with a point to prove and come up pretty fired up. And whenever you get an aggressive Rory McIlroy, that can sometimes be a good thing. Oh, I love it. There you have it. All right, David, your first pick, who are you charting in here? Yeah, so I'm going to go ahead and take Tommy Fleetwood, I think, two minds of which one I was going to go with. I'll go with Tommy Ladd. I mean, wouldn't it be so typical of Tommy Fleetwood to get his maiden PTA to a victory when it's played over in the United Kingdom outside of mainland USA? Look, he's just got an epic history on leg courses. He'd probably more experienced than the vast, vast majority of this field. This course particularly, he's finished fourth and sixth since he's been co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour. When it was still on the DP World Tour, he finished second here as well. The Alfred Dunnell links, he's got a multitude of top 10 finishes, including finishing runner up there twice. And then the open championship, he's finished in his last six tournaments. He's finished 12th, second, 33rd, fourth, 10th. So he's got an excellent history of leg courses. He's playing well enough as it is. But yeah, look, I like the links' experience that he has in coming in off four consecutive 21st finishes. He'll be the one much stronger company than he sees this week without the field being DP World Tour Plus. Certainly, of course, he spends your up with your first pick, but would love your take. Any interest in Tommy Fleetwood this week? Yeah, I think he's a very safe selection inside of the top five of my model, and I'll move this into my selection here, and I'll try to omit some of these names. So, when you look at the strokes game total, as I always tell everybody, I run it over a two year running perspective with everything we're looking at here. But you have two players in this tournament that are leaps and bounds in front of everybody else. And there are options, and we'll see if it ends up going in this direction where some of these names may fall to me. If not, I will mention them if the audience ends up taking them, but look at it to your running perspective here. You have a player that's gained 2.1 strokes, strokes game total per round, a golfer that's gained 1.96, and then your next name would be a golfer that's gained 1.35. So essentially, you have two golfers that have pushed above everybody else on this late, and I think there's a third name there that we're missing that we'll get to later in this show. But I'm going to just go the chakra out here. I would, my pushback, and I think it's very close Joel, is I would maybe make an argument that Xander's the best player in this tournament, and that's kind of the argument that I've made over and over again. I think that they're the big two. I think that there's another name to consider down beneath there, but Xander graded very well in my model. Number one, almost across the board in every key metric that I was trying to find this week. I think Xander has a lot of safety, and it's very easy pricing when you look at some of these DP world tour players that are too far down this board that carry real playability this week, which the one caveat that I would like to add to that is be aware of ownership. I think people are going to land in a lot of the same spots because of that answer, but there's always ways to get unique and different as we talk about. Well, Xander is certainly playing great golf this season. I mean, he's at the very worst. He's pretty much top 20 everything. He won here two years ago, certainly nothing I wouldn't like about the pick. We'd love your take, David, before we get to the audience, you are on the clock, so we get two out of you here. Start getting those nominations in, and while we wait, David, will you be playing Xander this week? Yeah. I mean, look, he seems a no-brainer. Everything's been said. Look, it is a weak field in a number of different PGA2 events that these guys have been playing recently. He's coming in a very good form. I mean, it's five tournaments, a row East, finished no West, and 13th. That includes signature events. That includes winning a major, includes the seventh of the US Open, obviously his past champion here as well, albeit in tough conditions. I guess I'd add that kind of caveat, but he did play here on the DP World Tour as well, finished 10th again, kind of a low scoring event that year. That was a winning total of 18 under, and then we lay in the playoff with Thomas D. True Matthew Fitzpatrick. I mean, he's finished second at the Open as well. So he's always been a type that I've liked on Ling Style courses. I've tipped him at the Open previous as well, where he finished fifth. Sadly, at the Open Championship of the St Andrews, but I do think he has all the facets of the game that you need to be successful at an Open Championship, and kind of takes me into point as well. I think if you're looking at the top two best players in the world, this year it's been like Scottish Hefford by a country mile, and then Zanshoff could arguably be the second end. Boom, there you have it. Audience picks are in two solid ones. They went with Wyndham Clark and Colin Morikawa, two premier names, Colin's playing great. God, Wyndham Clark, we've seen rise to the occasion at 8100 Spence. I would love your take. Are you interested in Morikawa or Clark this week? Really like Wyndham Clark, number one in my model when I took the distance plus putting category, rolled it into one category, I'm a fade on Colin Morikawa. He burns me more than a lot of players seems to do, but I recommended this play over in my Discord channel that I have, and I'll give it out here. I don't know if the number is still available, but I thought the Rory discussion that you talked about Joel, like there's still a lot of playability on him, and there has been an increase in projection for him over a lot of these other names. Rory was -130 over Colin Morikawa in a match if I don't normally play the Star versus Star battles, and I don't normally lay that much juice in a lot of these match ups, but I really like Rory for all the reasons that you talked about at the end of the day, and this was a spot where I thought I could take on Morikawa's profile. So that's the route I ended up going, but I do really like the Wyndham Clark play. If there's a player that's not on my outright card that I'm going to feel regret about, and maybe I shouldn't with the success that I've had on him in the past, it would be Wyndham Clark. I thought that was a very savvy pick by the audience. Interesting. Spence is in on Clark out on Colin this week. With that in mind, Spence, you have Xander, 11-7 to start. How are you following up with your second pick? So I talked about the strokes gained total projection that I had in my sheet, and just for the sake of transparency here, the third name is Colin Morikawa at 1.35. So it's more of one of those situations where I'm just a lot higher on the market with the big name guys, and then all of a sudden you reach this range beneath them, where everybody is very close like Tommy Fleetwood is right there, and I agree with David's assessment. I would rather play Tommy Fleetwood. That would be more of the route that I would be looking to go, say $400, go in that direction. I was not planning to do this. This is not how I envisioned my lineup starting. The first bet that I made this week was on a golfer that has moved a couple points, and if you want to talk about the one name, and I keep calling it a big three, and I keep not mentioning this player, but the boom potential that this option has from a pure ceiling outlook is more equivalent to what we're getting here with Rory. Maybe not quite as much as Xander, but I'm going to shoot for the moon with this lineup and try to stack the top of the board, I'm going to do one big Oberg at $10,500. Yeah, I mean, I could tell David, I'll be honest, I was planning to take him next to, so I think we're all going to be a little disappointed by that pick. I agree. I would like to get some exposure to him this week. I think he makes a lot of sense for this course, and he's just playing great. At $10,000, I think you were trying to say this, and I totally agree. You can make the argument that Ludwig might be the best player strictly because you get the salary savings. If it was all the same price, I would pick Rory and Xander, but with $1,000 off, I don't think there's that big of a gap where it might be worth taking the shot on Ludwig this week, so I certainly endorse it. I like it a lot, David. I saw your reaction. I would love your take. It sounds like you're interested. As soon as Spencer, within the first few words, was like, going back to total strokes gained numbers, I was immediately like, "Just no, he was taking Ludwig," and yeah, just point it, because I didn't think Tommy Fleetwood would make it back to me if I hadn't taken him first there, and I knew that I had to take Ludwig before he got to you, Joel, because that was obviously going to happen, and as soon as the audience didn't take him, I was like, "Okay, there's a chance here. If I get Ludwig again, might come back to me," and obviously, top five players in the world at the moment, right, in a field which, as I mentioned, half of its DP World Tour players, we know that he's got experience on Link's course as well, which I think is a real positive compared to a huge number of the other players here. Drives it long and straight, I think that's going to be a real key for him around Renaissance and upside to the moon, and you're saving such a huge amount of salary versus like Xander Schaeff, Lorie McElroy, and the way he's been playing, he's very comparable to both of those names in my mind. The outright answer is really where that lands on. I think based off of that, David, it sounds like you probably have Oberge as an outright pick this week. Yeah, he did hit limelight selections. He's dived in price since we put him up over it when Danny's sports have become able to. Same here. It's one of those situations, though, that it goes back to exactly what you talked about. It's specifically with Rory with it inside of my model, it's very comparable, expected win rates at a golfer that opened more than double the odds of that group. That's where you're just picking and choosing value at the end of the day. Absolutely. Yep. You've got to spot on. All right, David. Well, you got your second pick, you started with Fleetwood. Where are you looking to go with your second selection? I think that's three or four draft cars in a row where I've been after Spencer and he's sold and run on my selections within the first two picks. Last week, to work out too badly, we had Aaron Ryan, Dan McCarthy, both finished seven, so worked out all right in the end and yeah, look, I'm going to go. I'm going to take a golfer that I was going to take anyway and then while you're selecting Joel, work out what the hell I'm going to do with the rest of this lineup now because a big part of my plan was to spin up large on a Bergen Fleetwood and then dive down the board and grab some value further down. So I'm going to take Aaron Ryan here. Look, he's a pass winner on this golf course back in 2020 when it was on the DP World Tour. He's also got a third place at the Scottish Championship nearby. So decent enough, links form and play well at Hammel under a couple of times as well. He's got a 10th and an 18th year, but we just seen such a turn in what Ann Ryan's been doing ever since he started with his new putting coach and gaining just a ton of strokes putting. He was one of the top putters last week at the John D. Classic Aaron Ryan, like he gained eight strokes putting. And so his putting has taken immediate improvement for consecutive finishes in '19 or beta, including at the US Open, including a couple of booty feasts and now arrives at a course that he's won before. I think he's really got the game that they're concerned and given the driving accuracy, I think that's a key asset. If you're not going to be long, finding viewways and links golf is very, very key because if you do stray too far, of course, you can get into this very long Tussock grass and it can be extremely difficult to get out of, it can almost be a penalty straight straight away by all means. So I'll take Aaron right here and work out what the hell I'm going to do with the rest of this line up now. Well, Ryan is certainly playing fantastic golf. I've been looking at Ryan as well. I think he just elevated himself to a new tier, an 8,300. That might be under prize. I mean, we'll see what kind of showing he gives, but I can certainly endorse that pick here. Spence, we'd love your take on rye. Nine players in my model. I keep going back to the strokes, gain total answer. Nine players in my model are averaging over one stroke per round. Aaron Rye is seventh on that list of all the golfers. This is one of those spots where the market continues to be too low on him. And I think David talked about it and alluded to all the reasons why that's the case. But you're really seeing it from a statistical perspective and the market continues to not react. We've gotten the first real bump up from him, I would say with him getting to 8,300. But I still don't necessarily think it's high enough. Ooh, there you have it. It looks like we are aligned on rye. All right. For me, I'm going to take a defensive pick. I'm going to take someone I think David might be interested in. So it will be a steal. I'm pretty sure it is David's point. I'll be honest, if you introduced me to him, he had a great year. He's pretty affordable. I like his outlook on this course. He's playing much better now than he was a couple of weeks ago. And that is Matthew Hovall. At only 6,900, I think he just makes a lot of sense as a value in this draft. If you look at him the last couple of weeks, he's really turned it up a bit here in gaming strokes off the tee end on approach, ball striking. He's really found a hot putter. I think the one area of concern might be his creativity around the green heading into this. But I think on this links course, I want to teach your kids financial literacy, but not sure where to start. Greenlight can help. With Greenlight, parents can keep an eye on kids' spending and saving, while kids and teens use a card of their own to build money confidence. As a parent, you can send instant money transfers, set up chores, automate allowance, and more. It's a convenient way to run your household, customized to your family's needs, and the easy way to raise financially smart kids. Get started with Greenlight today and get your first month free at greenlight.com/pod. Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. Shopify is there to help you grow. Shopify helps you sell everywhere, from their all-in-one e-commerce platform to their in-person POS system. Shopify's got you covered. Shopify helps you turn browsers into buyers with the Internet's best converting checkout. Thirty-six percent better on average compared to other leading commerce platforms, and sell more with less effort thanks to Shopify Magic, your AI-powered all-star. What I love about Shopify is how no matter how big you want to grow, Shopify gives you everything you need to take control and take your business to the next level. Shopify powers 10% of all e-commerce in the U.S. and Shopify's the global force behind all birds, rotties, and brook linen, and millions of other entrepreneurs of every size across 175 countries, plus Shopify's award-winning help is there to support your success every step of the way. Because businesses that grow, grow with Shopify. Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com/Westwood1. All lowercase. Go to Shopify.com/Westwood1 now to grow your business. No matter what stage you're in, Shopify.com/Westwood1. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big ro-ass man, then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get a $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkton.com/resolts to claim your credit that's linkton.com/resolts. Terms and conditions apply. Linkedin, the place to be. To be. If you look a little different, you might find a little bit of better form. I think there's plenty of upside with the ball at $6,900, and I'm going to pair him with Benny Ann, who I feel like Benny Ann may have been able to wait on and he may have come back to me, but I'm going to go ahead and take him now with scrambling a little bit. I think there's a lot to like it. He missed the cut at the US Open, didn't play well. It was extremely tough to have, I think that's excusable. You just missed a ton of putts there, but if you look past that, he's absolutely crushing his driver. One of the longest hitters, he's finding fairways with it. I think that's going to be a huge advantage for him this week. He's been consistently gaining strokes on approach. I think he'll find that at the B2's advantage here this week. He's gotten you a top five already at this tournament. I think there's a lot of like to like about Benny Ann's form. I think that causing this to cut the US Open, you might be getting overlooked by a little. David, I'll ask you, were you interested in the opponent and is Benny Ann on your radar this week? I don't know if I would have taken him in this draft necessarily because I think there's a couple of other options around that area that I'm going to tend to go to more mainly because of his ownership. His ownership is getting up to 10% but I think that's probably rightly so. I mean, he's coming into some decent form runs again, right? It was fair that the US Open and then I think 16th the week afterwards from memory. So he's got some good form coming in and we saw at the beginning of the year, he stepped up to the PGA Tour just so quickly. We said a third in Scotland before as well, the Dun Dun with links back in 2017 at the Scottish Open there. So he has had some links form, a couple of top trial finishes at the Dunhill links in the last three years as well. Benny Ann is really interesting because he's got a good course record here. I think he's been playing decent golf too as of late and my only question again comes around ownership, like he's getting about 30% ownership at the moment, probably another couple of names that I would pivot to especially in large GPP kind of contest but just depends on your take here. I mean Joel's going for the 3B, right? Is he necessarily drafting for a team that's going to win a large GPP or is he drafting a team that's going to beat me, Spencer and Team Audience this way can get the 3B done? That's the key to this that gets lost in translation. I might be trying to win a large GPP. You put me in that 3B territory where there's a chance. I'm trying to beat three other people at that point and I do like the Pavan selection. I think both of them are fine but I would say Pavan for the price is probably the route that I prefer a little bit more. I do feel like you could correct me if I'm wrong here David, I felt like there was somebody else that you might have been afraid and you get the chance here to take that player so I don't think I'm spoiling the thing but I felt like there was a name that you thought Joel might be going to and I'll let you talk about it if that's the player, if not, maybe that's who I will be taking. Yeah, well I mean you've teamed me up to name the player so I mean I'll probably just name the player. As soon as Joel said, you know, you're a worthy, I thought that it was going to be Ryan Fox right like that's like just obviously he was going to be Ryan Fox in my mind. 17th last week of the BMW International Open, he's had a 16th at the Open Championship before, he's won the Alfred Dunhill Links and then finished second win defending so he's got great links records, his home course here in New Zealand is the links course as well and he's also at the benefit of the next year of week in Europe so I do think that Ryan Fox has got a lot going for him. He made my betting card at the beginning of this week, his price has dropped since then as well so what are those advantages of signing up for wind daily, you get us identifying all those odds that have misplaced at the beginning of the week before those numbers move for you. I'm not going to take him here because it doesn't fit the rest of my draft goal but he was certainly on my radar and as soon as Joel said, your boy I was like, Foxy's got on anyway so it doesn't matter. I'm going to go and take a talkie player that I don't think is going to get back to me if I leave on the board any further. Darling of Golf Twitter this week, Tom Kim, obviously he's got an outstanding record of this golf course. He also finished second at the Open Championship last year so let's not forget that he's got the other links form as well in terms of major championship record and as soon as game around the last four tournaments really, like we've really seen him start to come back to the Tom Kim that we all know and expected him to come back to the course where he's got fair chase of course history and as I said the links to the no pun intended there but links to the Open Championship he's obviously got a good record there as well so I don't think there's any chance that he comes back to me and I've got to grab another one of these names at the top of the board somewhere in order to continue with my line of build as I originally intended before Spencer rudely stole a look from me again. I love the Tom Kim pick, I love the way he's trending. I was surprised by how high they had in price but it does seem to be that he's priced appropriately because of the way he's playing so that will be endorsed by me but Spencer would love your take on Tom Kim and then you're up with your third bet. I'm indifferent just because of ownership as David talked about he's going to be very popular this week I tend to find myself gravitating if I'm going to go the chakra out more so with Fleetwood in that area and if I'm going to drop down there's a couple of names that I seem to like at about half the ownership. I'm trying to figure out what I want to do here because this is probably where there's always a spot it feels like these last couple weeks where I go too far off the course and and if you fly too close to the sun enough times you end up getting burnt in these spots but I need to find a way to put myself back into a salary position in my opinion to where I have a little bit more consideration and routes I can go so I am going to go with the golfer on my model that was the most missed price option it's in the $5,000 range this is a golfer that has made five consecutive cuts at this tournament four of those have come inside of the top 42 I'm going to take Alexander Bjork at 5600 I know a lot of the off the tee stuff and we've talked about distance and the need for that that's going to leave a ton to be desired but you look at how he rolls in the scrambling and the putting and the expected approach play from the creek the key critical distances I would be very remiss not to come on a show I picked them at 600 to one to open the week I have them across the board in different placement markets I have them in a head to head match up against Billy Horshel at +150 I've played him everywhere I'm not going to come on this show do a draft and leave him sitting on the sidelines after I've been super aggressive picking him over and over again so I don't expect people to necessarily love this selection the one thing I will say is when he came onto the PGA tour early in the year he was a darling selection and he fell flat on his face there's really no other way to look at it but a lot of the key metrics for me have turned around recently and we've gotten some really intriguing performances from him so I'm going to take Bjork and just hope that more of the upside comes into play than the downside here for a lineup that really needed to find a way to get myself back into a salary saving potential here will you certainly accomplish salary saving with this one and this is what we were talking about if you're looking for those sneaky plays those some of those world tour players that might be a little bit different that's what you're getting right now audience we need to it looks like one is in we'll wait for that second nomination but David would love your take on Alexander Bjork yeah look I think he's a really safe play I mean the nice thing about taking someone like Alexander Bjork and the 5,000 ranches you don't need them to win the tournament like you kind of just need a top 30 out of him and then rely on the rest of your selections like the look vixens enders of the world to go out and have really good weeks and then kind of back that up with someone in the 5,000 who's saving you salary and getting you a top 30 and Bjork's definitely capable of doing that he's got a good game third length courses he's going to find you a few ways he's got to make a lot of parts and he's decent enough around the greens as well and 12 last time out at the standard maybe mix is a decent result as well and a somewhat linked style course it's like a faux links and that they play on is how I would describe it so yeah look I think he's a completely fine pick of the 5k range starting to get like a little bit of ownership like six percent which for like the 5k range is pretty high but just with just noting that just how you deploy him is going to be interesting I think you'll see some builds which will go like Rory and Zander at the top and then they'll dig down to Bjork and that's probably not the best way to play Bjork so it's definitely a playable selection it will be in my pool pool for sure boom there you have it indoors audience got two in great job Tom McKibbin and Min Wu Li both guys that we've talked about in the last few weeks McKibbin especially was it two tournaments ago I know he was almost drafted on the show he was mentioned a few times would love your take David any interest in McKibbin or midwool McKibbin's a huge challenge right he hails from Hollywood's golf club saying club that Rory McOrus started when he was a teenager growing up as well and he's quickly becoming a top 5 player on the DP world to very very quickly playing your length experience to consume comes again with ownership he's going to be electricity known which for someone who's 7k is very very high so that's again just a cautionary note to add of how you deployed McKibbin's going to be key but look he's a huge talent before you know he will be on the PGA to have no doubt about that tons of driving distance and I think the length course is going to suit him. Min Wu Li good record here as well looks to be playing a bit better again he'll be with the my player pool as well so no qualms with either of those pics from the audience looks like they're constructing the same way as usual to beat myself and spend more so than a large GPP which is often the tactic of team audiences just coming here and just try and take down the experience which I love to say. There you have it. Spence, well love your take are you interested in Min Wu Li or Tom McKibbin and then you're up with your fourth pick? I like McKibbin the ownership would be the concern there there were there was a realistic chance that I would have gotten the McKibbin route. Min Wu's always the enigma of the name like I think he's fine and fairly priced where he is I don't have a massive take one way or another I would make an argument that you can find very similar profiles to him for a lot cheaper that would be my only push back to that but like I'm not going to sit here and say he's completely out of my player pool or he's not a name I'm going to consider I think he's fairly priced where he is I'm trying to figure out how I want to construct this bill because this is the very similar spot that we had last week where I put myself into a position to where I was going to close Keith Mitchell and Carson Young that was the plan until Joel very rudely stole Keith Mitchell from me which actually made the Carson Young pick that did not come into play even worse when I took Dylan Wu the Clanton pick was fine but that ended up costing me there I'm a little bit afraid that this is going to put me in a very similar position here I am going David's talked a lot about the Alfred Dunhill and he's you know we've talked a lot about link style courses and playing in Europe well there is a player that has eight career wins in Europe he only has two in America I think he's going overlooked in the market here and this is a player that's taking down the Alfred Dunhill in the past I'm going to go with Matthew Fitzpatrick at 9,000 to me that this this has the potential to open up some of the it's very popular start I agree with David we're a Zander Oberg Bjork and I do think Bjork is a lot of what I have been pushing out in the space as we obviously I don't push him to 6% just by myself but like I have been relentless in that takeover and over again with it to where even if I want to just give myself a percent or two like there's been some nature of Bjork coming directly from that so I'm not going to worry so much about that ownership where I feel like that is the one spot on the board that I maybe have influenced a little bit if that's the case though I do need to find a way to get marginally different in a building and I do think Fitzpatrick possesses that potential you will get any of the tea to green projections over a two-year running perspective on any generic course there's some problems you look specifically for this tournament he jumps inside the top 15 for me so right course right player right time to kind of consider him at the price where I just think the market has gotten too low on him for him getting a European event here and if we can get this into the 12 under 13 under range I think that would be the question I would have for you to where do you think the winner actually lands here the closer we get to that territory of like 12 to 14 under I think that's Patrick Kerry's legitimate inequity there well there you have it the pick is it and Spencer doing an interesting job with value because he has one type of value but he's gonna have to find a way to get creative with his last two David would love your take on Fitzpatrick this week well first Ludwig Stalin from me my alternative route involved taking that Fitzpatrick is the backup so second steal now that I've experienced at the hands of spent in this draft yeah look links credentials are great he's probably playing a lot better than people getting credit for I think he's had a couple of like middling finishes on courses that don't necessarily suit him and he started to play beer at the courses they do certain so we're starting to see some trends in that direction and obviously winner of the US Open but also won the Alpha Dunnel links and yeah plenty of links for him to go off when it comes to Fitzpatrick so I am gonna have to yeah really start to work out there could be another case where I leave like $3,000 on the table now all right well you're up you got an opportunity to show us what you're thinking who you looking with your fourth thing I really don't know which direction I'm going to take this now because so many of these routes involved have involved me taking some lower end kind of players to round this out and I need names at the top of the board and they're pretty much like all gone and I don't really want to touch Fitzpatrick to Hoffland like that's like kind of the only route they were kind of making a sense of me at this point so I'm going to take I'm going to take Alex and Lauren because he's kind of in the range where Joel might take him and I'll take him for now and then work out on the tier and while Joel speaks about his other two picks what I'm going to do from there look Alex has got outstanding history on links courses he's got a great short game gets to step down as a step in terms of the quality of the sphere or competitive what he's been playing on over on the PGA tour by all means I think it's been a really good year actually overall for Alex and Lauren he's been really consistent in his results second at the Alpha done a lengths in 2022 he had a third year previously as well along with the 15th 12th and 11th all kind of coming in the last six years he's played well at the open championship two he's got a top 10 two top 10s series finish six and ninth and then at the Renaissance club finished 30th year on debate debut in 2022 which I don't think really speaks to the the full talent that you can see from Alex nor on some of these links courses so some concern that he hasn't been putting well the last couple of weeks but returned to kind of slower European greens I think can be a good option for him on a links course where he's had time of history and time of experience a lot more so in majority of the sphere. Alex norin having a good season we definitely came up a lot on this show spent will Alex norin be in your player pool I haven't made a decision one way or another the one thing I'll say with Alex norin is you get a cheap price tag for a golfer that I think if this tournament would have run I mean take this back to the PGA championship and it's the week after the PGA championship Alex norin might have been I mean you could probably put him where Corey Connors is at 8900 we've gotten a substantial drop off with some of the recent form but link style course I always like him in Europe we've seen him pop in situations like this in the past so I don't have a large take but I would make an argument where David's probably correct this is too cheap of a price tag alright there you have it I've got two here I've been going back and forth and with direction but I've settled on I'm going back to the well I love the way Sun J.M. has been playing you know he hasn't had a great history here on the links but I think he's just elevated his game he had a slow start to this season but he's really coming on strong at 8500 I feel like Sun J is just underpriced by the way he's playing so I'm going to bet on the golfer and take Sun J.M. I'm going to pair him with a guy that I wonder if he's on anyone's radar I doubt that he is I probably could wait to take with the last bit but I'm going to take him here and that's Kevin you super cheap super affordable he's sixty three hundred but he has been absolutely crushing the ball I mean he's gained five strokes and approach it the John Deere two and half of the rocker mortgage five at the Canadian he gave strokes and approach it every tournament he's played in at least we have data on since the vows bar in late March you know he's team no put he's gained strokes putting the last two weeks he's gained strokes with his driver you know he was basically even at the John Deere so no shows gained or lost but before that he's gained strokes every tournament that we have data on all the way back until February of this driver when there's a lot to like about it and only sixty three hundred he seems really cheap with someone who I think should have a little bit of upside if you make some putts would love to do your take Spencer any interest in either Sun J or Kevin you I like what you talked about with Kevin you in the upside part of the equation there that's not going to be for the faint of heart we know what he does with the putter but look I'm not going to say that Alexander Bjork cannot win because my model has upside from but I do think in general people get caught down and I've said this a million times in this lower six thousand dollar range five thousand dollar range when we get these portions of the board and the common consensus ends up being let's go safe and try to make find a cut maker I am very against that route I think you should be shooting for upside Kevin you ball striking is elite I'm not even saying like that's not hyperbole it is really elite can he make putts I don't know what the answer to that is Joel but at sub five percent ownership and a six thousand three hundred dollar price tag there are a lot worse routes that you can go than him he might blow up he might miss the cut he also might top ten this tournament I'm totally obviously his record speaks for itself and can't expect him to get you a top ten but if your concern is putting at least he's trending in the right direction last two weeks he's gained but so that was my justification for it David would love your take any interest in Sunday or Kevin you probably not on either to be absolutely honest some days have plenty of opportunities on links course and soon really hasn't shown enough for me to really kind of put aside any fears I have that it might not be the best style of golf course for him and Kevin you played here once and lost six strikes putting into rounds so there would be my concern is that the bad part of kind of comes back for Kevin you on a golf course he struggled to put on the one time he did play it and he's never played the Open Championship either so we're kind of flying blind a little bit on Kevin you because I agree that the overall form seems to be improving the putter seems to be coming back is driving a lot of that and just my concern would be that the one time he did party reputed like just absolutely dreadful so that would be my concern there enough well you got your fifth pick here who do you like well I really like Matt Fitzpatrick and Minu Lee and live the go there but all of those have been taken from me by just dreadful steals by a team audience and Spencer again so I'm gonna go and take Brian Harman here obviously coming in off a ninth place last time we saw him at the travels championship and we've seen him string some pretty good results together obviously second at the TPC sawgrass at the players as well during the year be the highlights of his season thus far but it's obviously a defending champion at the the Open at a six and 19th before that he was 12th year last year as well I probably would have preferred to have been able to take Matt Fitzpatrick here would have allowed me to round out this lineup the way I wanted but I can't and so this is the the round I'm gonna go it's I'm laughing because I was literally looking at Brian Harman as you said his name is like oh interesting thinking a like on that one but I certainly understand the pick I there's someone else in that ring time targeting but I will have Brian Harman in my player pool this week how about you Spencer you interested in Kevin Harman Brian Harman sorry I'll ask you guys this question what ownership do you have on Brian Harman I am nine and a half percent I'm I'm loving that I've got Stephen in half I'm in the middle I have eight I am shocked that he is eight percent owned early in this week I was anticipating with all the coverage in the buzz that seemed to be hitting him that he was going to be 15 17 18 percent like I'm pretty floored that he's eight percent I think he's a really savvy play he's inside of the top 10 of my model that probably would have been if I was in David's position and like Fitzpatrick would be the number one choice obviously because that's where I went if I found myself needing a backup I would have gone the Brian Harman route I think it's a very savvy pick and maybe the upside around Fitzpatrick is ever so slightly better but really from like a floor standpoint they're very similar in my model boom there you have a pick endorsed looks like some ownership upside as well alright spends you got your fifth pick here you got about sixty six hundred perfect to go who you targeting so I'm going to try to open this up for myself one last time here it'll give me a couple names I can be fine with one or the two routes with it and with with it but I'm going to take Sam Stevens at sixty two hundred when I talked about me luli I like me luli this week but I think midwoo Davis Thompson Sam Stevens they all have very similar profiles of what I was looking for in my model and that's not meant to be a detriment towards Minwoo's playability or Davis Thompson's playability I mean if anything that kind of just says if that's the skill set that I'm looking for but for Stevens to be down at sixty two hundred I've made this argument countless times so far this week that switch his results and I know that's a big ask when Davis Thompson has just won a tournament but switch his result with Davis Thompson and I think you're probably in the spot where Stevens is seventy nine hundred and Thompson wouldn't be as low as sixty two with some of the upside he's had but you'd get a goal for that's much more expensive so I bet him to come top 40 I do think that the upside is a little bit better than the perception of the market seems to think here and I've obviously found myself in this position right now and there are I guess I'll wait to say names just in case I don't give one of them to the audience and I can actually make a decision here but there are options that are very playable in that seven thousand dollar range and it puts me in that range to where it gives me a couple names to consider from that and down I think that's an interesting pick I'll be honest he wasn't on my radar heading into tonight but looking at him now here in your justification I think you're right at sixty two hundred they're certainly upside he's worth taking a shot on audience we need to from you it looks like one is already in great job while we wait for the second David how about you are you interested in Sam Stevens Sam Stevens is is one of a number of interesting names where we have no idea whether he's gonna love or hate licks golf because he's never played on it however over the last three months he ranked 16th in this field for planning and 16th in this field for around the green and he's got tons of driving distance as well so that's kind of the base recipe for being good at licks golf is you're gonna need to scramble at points and you're gonna need to put well um he ticks both of those boxes which I think is a positive and he's got driving distance as well so curious to see how he goes because we haven't got any history on licks courses whatsoever and I think it's a kind of dot you can throw on a GPP at very low ownership and if it hits you can get a ton of leverage so I think he's an interesting play I love it audience locked in and they are leaving a decent amount on the table Vic Perez and Bobby Mack I thought Bobby Mack is an interesting one for this week I would love to get your guys take on him we'll start with you David are you gonna be playing Victor Perez or Robert Mack entire this field I think I think Paris is really interesting he's one on link style courses before and he's got a good history obviously on those type of courses he won the downhill links in 2019 also performed well on some of the like faux links courses that we see on the DPP or to the not true links but like links like enough and he said to show glimmers of form a little while ago they're the third of the comedian open 12th and the signature event at the memorial as well so I think he's an interesting name with some some upside I think it will benefit from having some time back in Europe as well Robert Mack entire my concern comes with the ownership obviously it was a heartbreaking loss here last year where Rory McElroy Birdie the last two holes two of the hardest holes on the golf course all day the projected chance of that happening was 0.15% and Rory went birdie birdie to snatch victory away from the local at 101 going out of winning the tournament so how we recover from that remains to be seen I guess my concern is a lot of people remember that and then since then he's won on the PGA tour so a lot of people again on it he's on their radar and as a result you're going to find someone in the 12 to 14% range and do I really want Robert Mack entire like 12 to 14% when you've got guys like Max homeless hip striker Benie Arn for Zadenhaus all right there in that price range as well and I think overall like over the course of those their career those golfers are going to have a better career than Robert Mack and Tyrus there you have it all right well spends you're on the clock with your last pick here 7k to spend who you looking at so it's in an ideal world I would have loved to been able to get up to Tom Hoege I know Deetrie's going to carry some ownership around him that's the same ownership game that we could have a discussion about I think he's fine at 7200 with where I'm at Pavon if he would have been on the board probably would have been the selection there are two names for me it would either be Van Royan at 7000 or Ferguson at 6700 I honestly think both routes work and both routes make sense here the ownership is very similar I'm going to go with Eric Van Royan just because I do have such a high upside for him in my model he's one of those boomer bus candidates at 7000 dollars to wear the floor is really low I'm going to be able to create leverage with the percentage that we have at sub 6% but the upside for me is a top 20 sort of play I mean it's not too dissimilar to what we're getting with Ferguson inside my sheet I think he also carries that similar top 20 profile but it's splitting hairs if we're being honest like I could have flipped the coin which route I would have gone I'll go in the direction since I have a better Van Royan to come top 30 at plus 225 but you could sell me in either direction if I'm being honest EVR it is willy show up this week I don't have them on my player pool I think I would prefer Van Royan more in a smaller tournament as a safer play than I would for the upside but would love your take David are you interested in Eric Van Royan? Yeah look I can make a case for him I think the the interesting thing is that when this tournament was just a DP wheelchair event he played it twice finished 14th and 6th and both of those instances he's had two top 20s at the open championship as well just quietly of some concern is that he did a lot with the putter when he finished six at the rocket mortgage and he's lost on the potion his last two tournaments that'd be the question and I guess an interesting route that Spence could have finished this was rather than going Stevens Van Royan he could have gone like Laurie Kenter who just won recently and then Ryan Fox which would have been an interesting way to maybe round it out as well but I don't mind the route whatsoever because I think if you were drafting for a large GPP which is kind of the purpose of the draft cast I mean Joel and audience had taken different routes to that this week and getting aggressive just trying to take the title that's fine but yeah if you were building for a large GPP Stevens and Van Royan I think you're getting a bit more leverage to be to the hands of the Laurie Kenter Ryan Cox route David I took Kevin Yu you got one left 6300 to spend you're probably with your last pick I took Kevin Yu there's a best response that you I could take Laurie Kenter here he's worth considering I think but I just want to talk about Matthew Southgate so I'm going to take Matthew Southgate with my last pick because he's someone that basically nobody's going to have heard of and he's not going to be played whatsoever I'd be interested in your guys ownership number on him I have it is very very low single digits around like 3% he comes in here he's just finished fourth at the BMW international open not a golf course that I typically would say is a Matthew Southgate course before that he qualified for the open championship so again you're playing on a lease course you've got to complete 36 holes you're playing in very competitive fields he's got a number of golfers trying to enter through the open qualifying as well he managed to earn his way into the open off the base of the back of his play in that event last year he finished second at the off with Donald Lynx he finished second there in 2019 he's got a ninth and a fourth at Himmeland and a tenth there as well and his record and then back when this was on the DPO tour and then 2020 he finished ninth here as well so there's just a ton like about him he's a real Lynx specialist and he's just finished fourth on a course that I would say is not his style of golf course at Gimmel's more of a park home style course coming in off making his way into the open field obviously as well and just carrying a ton of momentum on a golf course I think is actually a lot more suitable for him and you're getting a bit no ownership and no one in the states is really going to know about him that is why you're tuned in to find the sneaky plays and David couldn't be wrong I believe you've drafted him before on this show I might have actually I might have dropped to have made a previous Scottish open I don't think I don't think he made the open championship but from memory last year he was the last into the field he somebody dropped out and so he made it into the field and so there was this added benefit of one he was coming in at absolute min price and then secondly he was a late addition to the field as well so like anyone who had already made lineups wouldn't have had access to him at the beginning of the week so yeah I think I have drafted before I think that's that's correct and since then he finished second at the Alfred Dunnehill Lynx right so he's proven that Lynx courses are kind of his forte and for me he's arriving now and even better formed than he had previously very very interesting there for the last pick on my end I'm going to go ahead and use up all my salary and take Justin Thomas you know not just coming is not someone's going to blow you away with Lynx history and playing around these guys this is how I dig him thinking about getting overlooked a little bit he is striking the ball much better his form it seems to be on the rise he has three top 10s since April in his last six outings he's definitely kept it or firmly on team no putt right now but he gained a stroke and a half putting last week at the travelers or his last time out of the travelers better yet I think you know the form that Justin Thomas is in at 8800 I think you do get some upside within this week so I'm going to go with the golfer rather than the course fit I think he can produce a solid week that's a wrap for the draft tonight don't forget smash that like button give us a follow it goes a long way we are not done yet before we get out of here we do have some first round leaders to give out and don't forget to sign up for win daily get into discord chat on Wednesday night we will be providing you with an updated ownership article from Stephen letting you know the most accurate ownership predictions heading into the tournament we also give you weather updates if there's a weather ice to be had going into the tournament Thursday morning we'll post it you'll know if you want to post the early wait if you want to target players from the early slate the late slate if there's any outright bets that we're playing we'll post them in discord and you can ask questions so it's easily worth it sign up now you'll get all your money back plus some winnings by the end of the month I can't guarantee that but it's highly likely so get on this trade for first round leaders see us dropping in the chat we appreciate you see us card Vic Max I assume it's supposed to be Minh Wu Bobby Mac and Povone uh I like it I like this see a first round leader card gave it your life and what I miss I just like that see his tournament to next we're gonna see them in the world but then the world like that's probably why not just take both but yeah next we're gonna see the men were quite fine exactly yeah I do like a number of these names boom well while we're at it David who are you targeting in the first round leader market yeah so I've got six this week but they were all um well they were all longer than 40 to 1 and majority of them longer than 80 to 1 so taking some real darts on a course that can be pretty volatile in its nature as a lot of these links courses are so the 40 to 1 selections tomkin as I said he's in great form we know he can get absolutely sizzling hot with his putter and then he's coming into a golf course where he's got really fabulous course history um been in contention both times that it's been held here as a PGA to a sanctioned event the longest shots I got Alex Norin at 80 to 1 Jordan Smith at 90 to 1 whose putter finally looks like it's heating up to get a yammer at 100 to 1 Laurie Cantor at 110 to 1 and then Matthew Jordan another link specialist top 10 of the open last year grew up at Hoi Lake his home golf course he's 125 to 1 to be your first round leader who I love it spent how about you who's on your first round leader card so I will add anything to the wind daily discord and inside of the round table article that we do once I do have a play I'm gonna take my 30 seconds that I have here just got to pose a question here and this is to both of you what do you think Joel's aggregated ownership percentages on his build this week this is according to my model it doesn't mean the numbers are correct but I was curious to see I added together a total number yes yes okay David I've got a factor in the fact that he did take heaven you and I like I'm giving Joel a hard time but he did take heaven you who's gonna be like what like 2% I haven't met I'm a little bit higher than I mean the point is proven that he's still low I have him a little above four but yes it's gonna lower the percentage a little bit because of that maybe maybe 75% Joel what do you think you did I'm doing some math hold on hold on so I'm gonna say oh driving a full frickin model with a right I wanted to use a mess I had numbers I'm gonna say 57 well for playing prices right or the yeah price is right rules you would be correct Joel if we're playing closest to the number David would be correct it's 70.68% I don't think that that's a bad percentage like if you're at 70% that still has playability and it probably is where Justin Thomas like I only haven't met about 10.5% and Kevin Wu pushes it down even further at 4% so you know the other four names ended up being 56% but I don't even think that that's that egregious with it so I start worrying when we get into the if you're at 90 100 110 percent we've gone in the wrong direction I'm GPP contest exactly I look at it also like I don't want to have a lineup that's duplicated but I don't mind if I'm playing a lot of popular players I just I don't want to be at such a high percentage or it's gonna be multiple times and it's the same lineup is played at this number I don't think it'll be duplicated I think you start getting duplicated in the 90s and up so I would agree with that and as I said at the beginning and I stand by this if you would have made it 130% trying to go for the three-peat I would tell you you do you on this one because like you got to go for the three-peat when you have a chance but that lineup to me is is not that I appreciate that all right um well to get us out of here I'll give you my first round leader card quickly I think it's a shame that we didn't mention him on this show I do want to put out there Adekki Matsuyama's interesting and he's playing really good golf I think the 45 to one number for him from the first round leader is one that I can certainly get behind I like lug big at 30 to 1 Brian Harman at 60 to 1 Aaron Rye at 60 to 1 and Nikolai Huigard at 65 to 1 that is a wrap for my first round leader card it was a pleasure drafting with you all this week and I cannot wait for the open next week the last major championship of the year don't forget tune in next week we will see if I can officially be crowned the three-peat or will be ripped away from me from the draft cast this week tune in and find out did I forget anything uh yeah you're definitely not complaining the three-peat because you've moved me from the third draft spot so obviously this is the week when I finally get my win and take back the crown that I so obviously deserved if it wasn't for all these deals but the other thing of course as always sports you know when you're listening to a true crime story that has an unbelievable plot twist that makes you stop in your tracks that's what our podcast people are the worst brings you with each episode I'm Rachel and I'm Rebecca we're identical twins who love true crime cases that make you say didn't see that coming and we hate the people responsible for them listen to people are the worst now on apple spotify or wherever you get your podcasts
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Genesis Scottish Open! The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Scottish Open First Round Leader picks!