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To be. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ PGA Nation. We are back and we are back with the John Deere Classic. Now, before we get into this week's tournament, congratulations are in order. David, with an outstanding week hitting first-round leader, and an outright David. How are you feeling tonight? I'm feeling overall excellent. I mean, I was on a radio show earlier today, and they do a bit of horse racing stuff as well. Of course, in horse racing, you can hit a quinello when you get the first two in a horse race. And that's hard enough to do when you've got 12 horses running. But to hit first and second in the golf tournament, when you've got 156 golfers in the field, having cam Davis win at seven-e-to-one, Moo Lee was also within our selections at 18-to-one. Probably arguably should have won the golf tournament, but that's another thing. And then also have Arc Dei Bartere, which we gave out live here on the show last week, 45-to-one as first-round leader. We've been training in first-round leaders for the last few weeks. We've had three weeks in a row. We would hit the top five in the first-round leader market. So we've been cashing kind of week-to-week on it, but it was great to get that big ticker than huge, huge week overall. The only disappointing thing, Joel, the thing that I will take to my grave is that you stole Bartere from me when it came round to the wrap round. I would have taken him in the sec around instead of Stephen Yeager because I took cam Davis the winner with my first selection in the draft cars last week. Last at 72-100, he won the golf tournament. If Bartere had been on the board, I would have taken him, along with Davis Thompson, who was second, by the way, and Eric Van Roen, who was sixth. And I would have won the week, but Joel beat me by four points by taking Arc dei Bartere's. So overall, excellent. Other than I will be mad at Joel for quite some time. Well, you know what, that just goes to show you. Not only are we hot, like the first-round leaders are hot. We're getting you picks. Join the show now. Sign up for win daily. Get on this hot streak. But it also highlights where could be in for winners on this draft, guys. I mean, David picked the winner with, what, the second pick overall in the draft last week. And then I took Bartere right in the first round. I think I had the fourth pick last week. So this is a competitive draft. You're not just going to fall into a lucky good team. We are drafting the top players each week. You're following along. You should be winning some money spent. How are you doing tonight? I'm doing well, Joel. That's what I was going to say also. It's a very impressive show from top to bottom. And that's including what the audience brings to the mix. Like it has been an extremely competitive draft this year. Every single week that we produce content then. For David to pick the winner with his first selection for you, Joel, to still come up on top when everything is said and done there. Very impressive picking. Unfortunately, I did have that Minhui ticket as an outright. And that's now four second place finishes in the past five weeks. So it's been a little bit more difficult for some of my guys to get across the finish line. I had Rory at the US Open. I had Ben Griffin a couple of weeks before that. You take more Akawa and what we've seen with him when he lost the Shepler and then Minhui last week. I feel like we're very close to something. I actually think that I have the outright winner this week on my card. It's hopefully fingers crossed the player that I can take first overall when I pick, but we can cross that bridge when it comes a little bit later. Well, I am excited to find out. Before I go forward, I want to just touch on something you mentioned there because I think it's important. Listen, part of what we're telling you is we're making picks. You know, as David mentioned with like horse racing, 150 man golf fields. It's incredibly hard to pick a winner. And while we still do it sometimes to think we can go in every week and say, Hey, that's the winner. It's very hard to do. But we are picking guys who are competing and getting you top fives in top 10 that are showing up and having good results. And so there's ways to bet this. We're not every bet you make has to be to win the golf tournament. There's ways you can find success by taking some of these plays putting them on top 10s, top 20s, those cash and maybe it's not 70 to one or maybe it's not 20 even to one. But heck, I'll take a two to one or two and a half to one plus 150 on some of these bets if they're winning winners or winners. So don't feel like every bet has to be a first round leader or an outright we bet those two in a lot of fun. But if you're betting safer market, bet top 20s bet match ups, those are winners too. And we just want to get winners and that's what we're here to do. And we have the next 50 or so minutes to pump out a few for the John Deere class. And now they get into it, spent who has the best course break that you will find in the industry. Tell us what you're looking for over in Illinois this week. I think any time that you get one of these quote on quote shorter venues, that's going to feature larger than average greens and the ability for the proximity data. If you look from zero to 150 yards, that's where all the increase comes from like that range from each bucket that you're going to find there is where you get the height and ranges that are higher than what the baseline would be. It gets a little bit less there. It doesn't mean that you don't have long iron proximity. You're still going to have a bunch of shots that come from above that range. But I think when you hear that answer, a lot of people start pushing you into this direction of a pitch and putt contest. And there's going to be a lot of factors that come into play there. There's nuance factors that are going that you're going to have to consider when building a model. But I think I say all of that, if you're viewing TPC deer run as anything more than a birdie fest, you are probably doing something wrong with the data. This is a TPC property. One of the things that I talk about quite frequently when I discuss TPC properties on this show would be how these tracks are very consistent in their builds. We always see the layouts mimic something along the lines of they're beautiful. They're made for television architecture. They're frequently going to accentuate that birdie fest scoring conditions. And at the end of the day, the tour puts a lot of the properties there because they believe that's better for coverage. That is a discussion for a different day that we could have. But one of the unique ways that I built my model this week and one of the ways that I really like to do it in some of these contests where, yes, we have all the nuance answers that we can talk about the TPC scoring, easy scoring, similar architecture trends. But when it becomes this really straightforward approach where putting is going to be accentuated a little bit inside of some of these models and you are going to have that height and proximity range that's being talked about, I never loved to run that cookie cutter sort of an explanation. I decided to be a little bit different with the way that I built it. And this is one of the things that I always like to do is I take a reprojected weighted proximity for the course. And then I look at the expected make percentage totals on the page. And then I look at what we have seen from the event history from both of those two answers there. So essentially to simplify that and I will get us into the draft after this to not spend too much time on this answer. But I am trying to figure out opportunities created which would be the simplified version of that. And then what percentage of those putts are going in for each player. So you are going to have some players that are creating more opportunities than others. You are going to have some that are more likely to make putts. Who is the golfer that's going to make the most birdies this week? And that's what I tried to find in my model. And I do like the way that my math ended up finding a lot of these situations and value on the board, whether that's for DFS or betting. So I think we have a fun tournament. I think we are going to have a really good DFS board to discuss and I am excited to get into this this week. I want to ask for a clue. Is the golfer that you expect to get the most birdies this week, the guy you expect to win the tournament? So you know what's funny about this, Joel, is the person who graded number one for that was actually not the person who graded number one in my model. That guy ended up grading top three for me. And there's, like I said, that ends up being 20% of the statistical weight in my model. There's still 80% of a statistical weight that's in play. And that's just 50% of the total. There's a course history return in there. There's a current form answer. We can talk about who I expect to make the most birdies this week as we move across the show. And the player gets picked because I can guarantee you they won't last very long on this show. But I think that's what makes this tournament so much fun. Well, there you have it. Let's get right into it. Let's pull the draft board up. We will be drafting tonight. I selected the order as I come off the victory and I will be drafting first followed by Spencer, David, audience. I give you the pleasure of selecting last. You will get two in a row. So for anyone that might be new to the show, a quick reminder if you log in on YouTube, you can participate in the draft and actually contribute. So just get into the chat. The way it works for the team audience is the first player to get nominated and then double. So be mentioned again after a nomination. That's the audience picks and that's what locks it in. Zach Jeffers at always leads team audience with the locked button to enjoy that pick is final. You do need to stay within your drafting size. What that means is you can't just take all the best players, you need to make sure you can afford each player that you draft without further do with the first pick. I am going to step up and select a little bit chunky. But what I think is maybe the best player in this field definitely top five and they can go out and win this tournament and that's going to be some J him. Now some J started off the season extremely slow. It was terrible for a long time. And he kind of fell off people's way. But some days fully turned the corner and Sunday has been playing some really good golf. The Sunday that we're used to over the last let's call it since let's call it late April, even a little bit further. You can even go back to, you know, he had an 18th at the Arnold Palmer, but you know, from January through March, he was as ban a golf as we've seen some day play. But if you look all the way back to let's call it the RBC heritage. We got 12. He was fourth at the Wells Fargo. He missed the cut at the PGA. And then he gave us of his last four tournaments. He's entered. He's given us three top 10 with a third of the travelers last week, getting five jokes on approach. You know he's going to be good with his putter. He's a really good around well balanced game in this watered down field here in this tournament. I think some J is the premier class talent. And I think you can go out and win the tournament. I'd love to get your feedback. David, are you interested in some day this week? I think it's it's undeniable that Sanghtayyam is in great form. And so I take all of those points that you've just given. There's two areas of concern for me that Sanghtayyam, despite the high ownership at 28%. That comes from the fact that he's played here twice. He's finished 26 and 47 and what's typically a very weak field and hasn't chosen to play here since 2021. And the additional factor is on approach. He's been really, really bad with his wedges this year. As Spain's mentioned, you've got a huge number of shots under 150 yards this week, even just 100 to 150 yards. One third of all approach shots are going to fall within that bracket. Sanghtayyam is losing in both of those categories on approach from 50 to 100 and 100 to 150. He does all of his good approach week on those 200 plus approach metrics, which what we've seen recently at the recent tournament is actually the pro train just being most of them fall. So I think it is a difficult decision. I don't think I'm going to be totally like fading Sanghtayyam totally because I agree. He's a class act. We know the upside that he has. He's very strong off the tee. Like he's a long driver, but also accurate. I think that's a real benefit. TPCD run. He's in good form on the flip side. I don't know if it's the best course fit for him. So I don't think I'm going to completely fade him, but I don't think I'll be overweight. Like I'm probably going to be like in their 20 to 25% range in terms of exposure. I hear you. I think what you're saying is you like Sanghtayyam probably not as much as me, but we're at the ownership. It's probably not worth for you to over invest. I thought it was if I totally understand that. Spence, you're up with the second pick here, but we'll love your take on Sanghtayyam this week as well. I would probably give a very similar answer to what David just talked about. When I look in my model for weighted proximity for this course, he's 65th. When you place that extra emphasis from 150 yards and in, he's 87th in my model. There is enough respect for him in the market right now that I think I'm in probably a similar mindset as David where I haven't made a decision yet what I want to do with him, but I don't necessarily want to get burnt by a player that is still inside of the top seven for me in the way that I built my chic. But I think when you hear answers in the space and there's a lot of people that think that Sanghtayyam should be the favorite in this contest and I understand that viewpoint with it, but there's actually somebody from me and I'll segue this into my pick right now. There is somebody in this tournament that I actually had above Sanghtay when it came to projected win equity for this event. He was number two in this model of mine when we talked about the projected birdies and I know that's a weird answer to say that he's number two in projected birdies. How does he get to number one in your model for projected win equity and the way that you end up doing that is you take really consistent form and you take a statistical profile of the six categories that I ran and you're inside of the top five in five of those categories there and that ends up propelling you up the sheet in my model. So I think this is the hottest golfer right now entering this tournament from what we've seen and there has been a lack of win equity in the past and I didn't know what I expected the ownership to be out. I guess I'm not surprised that he's a very popular choice because he was a very popular choice last week also and he ended up pushing himself up the leaderboard and arguably found himself in there with a real chance to win but I'm going to take Aaron Rye at $10,000. I mean Aaron Rye looked great last week and to your point where I think he was popular going into the tournament but there's something to be said about someone who was popular going to dinner and actually showed up and gave you the result and then he comes back to another weak field in the incredible form he's in. I'm with you. It's going to be hard to get away from Rye this week. I'll certainly be playing him but we love your take David. Are you interested in Aaron Rye this week? Well that's the second week in a row that's been sort of stolen who I wanted to take in the first round. Last week I worked out pretty well because I was going to take Nikolay Hoigard's been stolen so he ended up taking who I was going to take sitting in the third spot again. I was going to take Sam Davis, my second pick. So he ended up taking first. They worked out all right. But as Jordan, hey what's up Jordan? He sees Double Glove. I would have played Mr Double Glove as well. He's what improves his knee with Aaron Rye. He's very, very strong on approach under 150 yards. He ranks number one in this field for driving accuracy over the last six months. Driving FC is important at TPCD run. Not necessarily because he's lots of trouble off the tee but because you need to make booties and you need to make booties and bunches and that is best place to do from the middle of the fairway from 150 yards in. So he takes both those boxes. The next factor is that he added a new padding coach. He did that last week. He finished second. He was in the top ten consistently all week for padding. That is not the Aaron Rye recipe that we know over the last few years. So the fact that he's got a padding road and we've seen instant results. He's got a lot of momentum coming in. And quite quietly I think that that is almost a lot for the top ten and certainly in the frame of conversation with who could win this tournament. Boom. Aaron Rye endorsed. All right David, pick stolen again. How are you going to pick it here with your first pick? Yeah, standard behavior from Spence and Joel last week you stole actually Bartier on the wrap round. So I'm just bracing myself with that happens. Aaron Rye by the way he won one of his tournaments on the DPL tour having finished second the week before. It was the Irish opening for the second. Then he won the squad was open and he's just finished second last week. So there you go. So I'm going to take Denny McCarthy here who would have been my second selection on the wrap round. I understand he's getting a little bit chalky but I do think it's with good reason. We've seen a lot of consistency from this game as of late. Obviously finishing 39 for better in his last four starts. And he chose a lot of correlating form for comp courses. And it's not a real surprise that he's finished six here on his last two starts. Denny McCarthy is the opposite of everyone in team though part, right? He's one of the best putters on the PGA tour. And it's when we start to see some signs from this approach game that you want to start to get on them because of all striking really suits. And the fact that there is a disproportionate number of approach shots from under 150 yards is really promising at the spot for Denny McCarthy coming in in good form. And I think it's a course that really suits him. We know that the putter he can make booties and bunches but he's good enough with driving XC and the approach metrics really do pop for me as well. So I think he's good value in 9500. I appreciate he's taking a little bit of steam at the moment in this market. But maybe to kind of go more of a balance build and what is a pretty weak field with some self pricing across the board. Boom. There you have it. Denny McCarthy. This does feel like a Denny McCarthy type of tournament. Spencer, I'd love to get your ticket. Are you interested in the Denny McCarthy this week? Yeah. I like the Denny McCarthy pick. He's the name. Like David talked about him getting steamed in the market. He is a pretty extensive favorite against really notable guys that my model likes and head to head match ups even. And when you look at this event and one of the things that I noticed in my model is when you look at last year, we'll just use last year as an example. You had the really high end extreme putters like the ones that are good, the McCarthy's, the Post-ins. Even inside of my sheet, they might not be that same level but you have a Mark Hubbard, a Stravka, Todd. You also have names that are beneath that that are much worse expected putters. So I think that there's two ways that you can go about it. You can either and that kind of goes to the answer that I talked about when trying to merge together opportunities created and then the percentage of the putts that are getting made. If I can find a player that's either going to make a lot of putts and this is what McCarthy graded in my model is a guy that's creating just enough opportunities that there's a reason why he's found success out there. That's kind of the recipe that I'm looking at for player number A, player number B is just create a plethora number of looks and hope that you make enough of them that you keep yourself in the running with it. But I think McCarthy's probably one of the safest plays that we can talk about and the ceiling for me inside of my model like this is about as good as it ever gets for him in a tournament. My map doesn't typically love him in events and he was a name for me that was grading as a value in most ways. So I like to pick a lot from David. Whoa, there you have it, David. Audience, you got two here. The first is in. They've locked in Thompson and it looks like the second should be struck even though Poston came in close with the second. I mean it looks like Stravka first. So we're going to lock the truck up. This is Stravka's offending champ. He's been playing great with a lot of ownership going to Sanjay and Rye. I think Stravka might be coming in a little bit less on that. I mean the number looks I'm looking at 18 percent. I'm not sure if you guys have something different. Which 18 percent is fine. But Stravka's been playing great. He may be cooled off a little bit more recently, but it's going to be won this tournament in 2023. I mean he had the two top five of this Charles Stravo Memorial. He did the six of the open 23rd at the Travelers. I think people might be starting to sleep on him a little bit. He's still playing great golf in this field. Definitely. I really like this. But the Stravka play will love your take spent. Are you interested in David Thompson or some Stravka? Stravka's third in my model. That was across the board for overall upside safety. Thompson was fourth in my model. Didn't get worse than sixth in any of those categories. I do have Stravka's ownership and gets the same answer for Thompson with it. Like Stravka's 26 percent in my model. And I don't know if you see the same thing David. Yeah, so I mean we're looking and I don't even necessarily have a problem. Like that is what's fair ownership percentage in my model. I just think you have to make a decision of which way you're going to go. But it's that blueprint of why he's won this contest last season. And I mean don't forget I had that out right on him last year. And if you recall he entered Sunday way off the lead and he stormed the course to start that and ended up making a double bogey at the end where I thought he was going to lose it to either Brendan Todd or Alex Smalley and the two of them just couldn't make a put down the stretch and Stravka found himself in the clubhouse for I don't know what it actually was but it felt like two or three hours and it might actually have been that number where he's just sitting there watching everybody just not be able to surpass him at the end. So you know that he did get a boosted result with that. But I think these are two of the five best players in the tournament. Boom, there you have it. David, we love your take. Are you interested in some Stravka or David's times in this week? Um, the step-stracket question kind of actually raises you taking Sanjay in the first round again for me because if I was to price this board and probably would have gone Sanjay for a step-stracker second Jordan speed field in terms of the pricing structure. So I do think that there is a bit of value to Sanjay in terms of how he's priced particularly. Stravka does have good upside. We've seen just his approach numbers this year really take over. As Spencer mentioned, he can kind of come out and shoot a minus eight, minus nine at any stage and he just does get red hot. My question just comes in terms of the company that he's keeping now in terms of the pricing. Do we really want to be playing a step-stracker in the 10K range at a really volatile tournament where scoring is going to be really low. And as Spencer, like the other two names who were fighting step-stracker last year, Brendan Todd and Alex Smallley, hardly household names sort of rectangular contention on the PGA tour, right? So my preference is probably to try and take more of a balance build, try and grab some value further down the board. I think it's the kind of week where you can leave a better salary on the table and be fine because you just are going to see some volatility just given the wedge-face pattern contest that those teams have always been. Yeah, I totally agree with that. This is definitely not a week due to prioritizing spending on your money, especially if you think about once you get past the top, let's call it, I'll be concerned by saying 15, even though it's probably way less than that. After the top 15, everyone's the same. Anyone's price could be mixed and matched. At that point in this field, it's very similar. So the kind of forced salary this week is at a major, when all the big dogs are playing, you probably want to spend all your salary. But in a field like this, you definitely don't have to. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the optimal lineup left a lot of money on the table. All right, David. With your second bet, you started with Danny McCarthy. Who are you looking for? Yeah, I would have liked to have started Danny McCarthy on right here. Probably in reverse order, would have gone out and ride me, Danny on the wrap round if he got back to me. I have to think as this draft develops, how I'm going to restructure this team, but I'm going to go and grab some value at this point in the draft and go down the board and take Patton Kazaya, who I can grab at 6900 at the moment. Kazaya's just sneakily playing some very good golf recently. In his last six starts, outside one, this cut at the Canadian Open, where he put it absolutely dreadful, he's finished 28th orbiter, including a tenth in the middle beach and 20th last week at the Rocket Mortgage. I would say that the Rocket Mortgage is also not a typical course fit for Patton Kazaya, so that always adds intrigue for me where a player over performs against my expectation and a golf course that doesn't necessarily suit him. If we do look at courses where their decent course comes to here, I think Wailai, the Sony Open, a course where driving x3 is important. There's going to be a lot of edges, there's going to be low scoring. He's won that tournament previously in 13th year earlier this year. He's had a third at Colonial, also correlated. A sixth at the Travelers Championship at TPC Ripa Highlands. In terms of his course record here, he missed the cut here last year, but they came off the back of three previous missed cuts. His incoming form was dreadful. Other than that, he's finished 16th, 11th, 30th and 25th and his other four starts at TPC deer run. So in terms of the 6,000 range, that's some of the best course history that you're going to find for a golfer who's racking up top 30s at the moment and finds himself now in a much weaker field in good form on a course that should really suit him. In terms of the approach metrics, I'll just wrap up by saying, in that 100 to 150 yard mark where the one third of all approach shots are going to come from 100 to 150 yards on this course typically, it goes Lucas Glover in first, Chandler Phillips in second, Petting Desire in third within those approach metrics since January of this year. Actually, if you looked across the entire season for all players anywhere in the world, Petting Desire actually brings in the top 10 within that approach range. Well, there you have it. That's what's so great about this show. I'll be honest with you, Petting Desire was not on my radar coming into the draft, but now looking at it, I like the pick. I can see myself getting some Petting Desire shares. I think for a lot of the reasons David said it makes sense. Spence would love your take. Do you have any interest in Petting Desire this week? It took me a long time to put his name into the actual pick because Petting Desire for me was the very best value that I had on the board for where I thought his price should have been to where we actually got it at 6900. It's going to definitely create a much different sort of a build for me here where I think I'm going to now have to deviate from what I wanted to do because he was such an, and he's not the only one. There's a couple other names. He was such an obvious mispricing to me at where he was at, that it made builds very simple when you could put him in for a contest like this. I like the Petting Desire pick. David, if I got you on Aaron Rye, you got me coming back on this one. Nice pick there. It's an eye for an eye with that selection. For my pick, I'm going to take... Well, there's one of two ways I'm going to go here. It was going to be Petting, but I'm going to take Rio Hitsett-Sune. I don't know if you're going to take him Joel, and I feel like you do every single time you have an opportunity to. I'm just going to get ahead of that one if I can. I was one of the biggest supporters of him coming into 2024. Probably not as much as you were Joel, but I would like to give myself the vice presidency on that to where... I was your one bee in that direction of trying to take him in every single chance I could. We haven't necessarily had the most pristine for six months from him. He's lacked a top 10 finish in any of these PGA tour events, but I thought that outlook was very flawed when you consider his last handful of starts. If we just look over the last five tournaments teetegreen plus 2.74 strokes on average, you narrow that down to just the last two tournaments plus 5.25 shots teetegreen. Those last two finishes are the interesting ones because you haven't gotten anything better than a 31st place finish in that. There was this outcome last weekend, and I built this going into Saturday night, so for round four. The three biggest underachievers in my model, from where they were on the leaderboard, from where they should have been and where they actually were, hit-satsune, hoigard, bo-hostler. Those were the three names that were the guys that I expected to have bigger performances than we were getting from them. We didn't necessarily get that turnaround from hit-satsune, or really, I'm being frankly honest with any of the three in that moment, and it's a unfortunate thing with hoigard where like, Hostor was projected number one in my model entering the final day. Hoigard was number two. Those two guys were nowhere near the leaderboard, and I think if you take away what hit-satsune did with his approach game on day one, you've got to really stellar return from him across the board. So I always like these players where we talk about a lot of these names quite frequently, like when we want to talk about team no putt in these contests, and it's one thing for me when you're just a bad putter and you're always neutral or worse. It's another one you have an actual ability to spike with that facet of your game, and that to me is what hit-satsune provides. He's gained over four shots in two of his past six starts. He's also lost over two and a half in additional five of twelve tournaments, but seven of those twelve tournaments, he's either gained exponentially or lost to an egregious rate there. So I'm willing to take on that profile here. I thought he was a really good outright bet to consider also for the price, because you're looking at an option to where, and there's a couple names down there, that they're not to me 66 to one sort of golfers. I can't promise he's going to put the putter together, but if he does, I do think that this could be his coming out party if you want to call that for this 2024 season. Well everyone knows how I feel about that, Pick. I endorse it obviously. I love Rio. I hope this doesn't disappoint you. I don't count it as a stolen pick, because he was on my list of someone I wanted to take. I just didn't think I needed to take him on this turn. I was someone I was planning to take later, but I think you guys are privy to me. You knew that I was going to take him. So he was the one I wanted to roster this week. I think at 7600, I think the price is right, and I certainly see the upside there, especially in these GPPs. How about you, David? Are you on Rio at all this week? Yeah, and I mean, first thing, it's been for completely pronouncing Rio, his sats and a surname correctly. The whole way through that, Joel, I hope you were taking notes, getting the translating out and making sure that you were locked in on that in the future, because that was flawless from Spencer in that regard. And also a flawless pick in my eyes. This is the kind of course that I do expect his sats and they will get his made in PGA to a victory at. And of course, like this, where it emphasizes driving accuracy a lot more. In terms of his approach, Metrix tends to do best in those 150 yards and less kind of characteristics. His win on the DP Wheel 2 came out of course called La Golf Nationale at the open to France. They're French open. And on that course, driving accuracy is king. And it's driving accuracy, hit you wedges, and scramble your way around. It's not a treeline course, but there's tons of water in play. And that's why you need to find those fairways. And we also saw that in a number of tournaments that he played on the DP Wheel 2. It was almost consistently his best results as top 10s, as top 15s all came with driving accuracy courses. And we do know that is very important at TPCD Run to allow your opportunity to score. And as Spencer rightly pointed out, it's kind of feast or famine with Rio's putter. It's like he's going to lose you four strokes putting and miss the cut. Or he's got to gain you eight strokes putting, make the weekend and finish top 10. And it's like, which one do you get? And for TPCD Run, that's a really intriguing prospect. Out of course, we are going to make a lot of birdies or need to if you've got to continue for victory. There you have it. All right. I got two here. And I'm going to go straight for some value with my next pick. And you know back. And this is a guy who's been struggling along all year and only 7,500. The owner took a little high for this price point. I'm looking at, it looks like on my end about 14%. I'd love to see what number you have, but he's been very consistent with his putter. And he's been gaining strokes on his approach pretty consistently for a better part of the year. And if you just look at his results, I mean, he's getting you top 20s and top 30s. And he's been consistently showing up weekend week out in this watered down weaker field. And I really thought he should have been in the mid to upper 8K range. So getting a lot of savings in price. I think Andrew Novak makes a lot of sense of this course. And I'm going to follow that pickup with, and it's just, I know between which guy I want to take first. Like who is more likely to go? I'm going to take Joel Diamond. I think people are sleeping on him a little bit. He showed up last week in a really good result. The ball striking has been fantastic. The issue with Joel has always been the putter. It's going to be the putter again this week. But he's been just killing the ball ball striking off the tee on approach. It doesn't matter. Can we get a neutral putter with a neutral putter? I think you get a top 10 finish out of Joel this week and only 7300. I think he's a really good value. David, we love your take. Are you interested in Novak or Diamond this week? Of those two, I'm probably more interested in Diamond. He was a 160 to 1 with 8 places or 175 to 1 without places in the beating markets. Entering the final round was right there in the top 10. He was 7th entering the final round and had the worst putting round off the event in round 4. Lost a horrific number of strokes putting, then -4.7 strokes putting in round 4 there. Had he putted at field average, he would have cashed a place for us at 32 to 1 along with all the other hits we had in the beating markets. Had he lost just two strokes putting to the round, which is still a huge amount of strokes, would have cashed a top 20 at +6.50 for us last week as well. I think you're right to hit on the fact that it's going to come down to the part of what's happened, but because of my that he's hitting his part shots beautifully breaks really. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laughing at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit that's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply, linkedin, the place to be, to be. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it, Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery. So you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-Granger, click Ranger.com, or just stop by. Granger, for the ones who get it done. Well, in that 100-150 yard range of terms of approach, can grain on driving distance. And if there's any promise in terms of his putter, it's that he was good for three rounds last week putting and then put sort of an contention. And then he's played here four times. He's gain stroke time twice. And one of those two times when he gains strokes putting, he finished second here. Boom, there you have it. Endure spends. How about you? Any interest in Novak or Domin this week? I think they're very similar inside of my build where they're neutral values for me where I don't have a problem with anybody who wants to go in necessarily either direction with it. Probably would agree that Joel Domin, Damon, I don't know which one's correct there. I think it's Damon, but I would probably choose him as the pick of the two. But I don't have a massive take on that. I'm going to move us forward in the draft here. And I'm pretty sure that whichever one of these two names I do not take, they're not going to get back to me. And that's what makes this very difficult. And maybe I'm end up being wrong about that and I'll be pleasantly surprised when one of them falls back to me. But I'm going to go up the board. And I've started with a very, we can talk about that. Ray has potentially turned the putter round and he does have a positive trajectory on bent grass greens in general. But I'm going to add a real putter to the mix here. And somebody that had a whole bunch of upside for me and JT posts in at 9100. There's a lot I like about him. Number one in my model and expected weighted strokes gained total for this course. I think when you look at these players at the 9,000 or above range, there's going to be, I know the ownership is going to be there. There's going to probably be more polarizing takes from him because he is a very boom or bust commodity inside of my sheet. And you don't have to look any further than what he's done at this venue over the past five years in general. There's top 10s and there's miss cuts with it. I really like Posten's upside for this tournament. And he was the number one climber that I had in my model when shooting for pure win equity in the event from the prices we were getting in that. So you can find him at 35, 36 to one in the outright market. I had him substantially better than that. I'm going to bet on the upside. Sometimes you fly a little too close to the sun, some of these plays and you get burnt. But I'm also trying to put together something to where I think his win equity is a lot better than a lot of these names that we're talking about that are close to him on the odd sport. Well, he certainly also has the history. I mean, he's won this tournament in 2022. We've got either the T6 last year. He likes the course. David, what's your take? Are you interested in JT Posten? Yeah. I mean, look, certainly possesses the upside. We've seen what he's been able to do on his golf course. He's a winner and a sick face finisher in his last two starts of this tournament. Seeing decent enough form for him to think that he's probably value of the price of the back of that, we're getting sort of 17% ownership as well. I'm seeing in the moment or something. He's got a full poverty and that's 16 to 18% range once it's all said and done. It is pretty high, but I think it's for justified reasons and doesn't present as one of the safer options. I think if you are going to be speeding up the salary and what's a pretty volatile tournament and a pretty volatile field? Yeah. One of the ways just very quickly like that I view him there is I view him in that top and mix next to the Denny McCarthy's, the Davis Thompson's like those are all the elite players in this field and all the way up on it and there's less ownership from that group. There's a cheaper price tag and he's going to be much more popular than a lot of these names that are beneath him on the slate. But when I view him more in that upper echelon tier, it makes the 17, 18% a lot more digestible in my mind based off of that. For sure. I think that totally makes sense. All right, David, you're your third pick here. You have McCarthy and Kizaya. Who are you looking at with your third choice? I'm trying to think what the audience might do here in this so you can stand on the wraparound. They've got only 500 over the next two selections. And I figure what they'll probably do. They'll probably go grab one guy of value and one guy a bit further up. And I'm just wondering which one I might have stolen from me. So I guess I'll go. I've got two golfers on the value side that I'm kind of OK or 33 than I'm OK taking. So I'll go and take Seamus Power in this position here at 8,300. Seamus Power looks like he's training in terms of his approach metrics of late. He's been really spiking 20th last time out at TPC River Highlands. He's been playing in the signature field event. So he's taking a big step back in terms of class here and obviously playing in a tournament that he really likes. He finishes his 13th, 8th and 16th here in three. If his last four starts correlated format while I was finished there previously as well. I just think that is a beta spot for him in a weaker field compared to some of the tournaments that he's been playing, which I haven't been too long for him or against sort of elite company that he has outpaced by. So I feel this is more than level where Seamus Power could be of some value. And 8,300, I think that he is a decent salary. Well, I'll give you one there, David. I was going to take power with my next pick. A lot of reasons you said he's playing well. He likes this course. I think Seamus Power is on the rise. I endorsed that pick. Audience, we need two for you. It looks like one is in while we went for that last pick. Spence. Well, love your take on Spence on Seamus Power. I don't have a massive take one way or the other. I think I'm surprised with all the publicity on him in this space so far this week that I know he's 14, 15%. I actually thought he would have been more popular than what we're getting right now. So, I wouldn't necessarily worry about the ownership for a golfer that has provided in the last three of the last four years playing this three top 16 finishes. You have to like the course history with it. I think David made some various suit points when he talked about some of those venues. And it's kind of the answer that I've given a lot about JT posts in this year. There's just certain courses for these names that got into these elevated events that they normally wouldn't have wanted to play that they were too long for them. And when you put them in more of these prototypical tracks that suit their game, you get better expected finishes from them. So, I definitely think Seamus has the potential to fit into that same bubble of what I talked about with JT there. I don't know if I'm necessarily going to get to him, but I don't have a massive problem one way or the other. All right. There you have it. Audiences locked in. It looks like the two picks are Hubbard and Justin lower. Two popular value names. Two guys at least lower is an always a value pick. Hubbard has priced up a little bit this week. We'll love your take if you're interested on either Spencer. So, I bet Justin Lauer to come top 40 at plus 150. I like the safety markets better than any of the other markets that we're going to talk about. There were 13 or 14 players that graded inside of the top 60 of all the categories that I ran. Three or four of those names got eliminated when I released it on Twitter because I only included the players that had a top 10 rank in one of those six categories. But for the price there of what you're paying for Lauer and some of these recent metrics and results that he's put together, there are a lot of players. It's not just him. There's a few names down in that mix where I think the market's been really slow to react to the performances that they've put together. So, I really like that pick from the audience and it's a funny tournament because I would say there's three, four, maybe even five names down in that range that I would give a very similar answer about this week. Oh, all right. There you have it. Audience, two solid picks. David, we'd love your feedback on Huggard and Lauer and then who you taking here with your fourth pick. Yeah, I very prefer Huggard over Lauer in terms of the selections. I've got other options that I prefer in that lower 7K, high 6K kind of range. I kind of hate hitting that list but probably three other names that I like and that's sort of 6800 to 7200 range above Lauer. But just to allow for me, a lot of it comes down to the fact he is going to have to really like nail. He needs to be nailing his approach to get these really good finishes and it's been okay for him on approach but it's not kind of consistently gaining four strokes approach per tournament that I kind of want to see from just and Lauer going into taking him in an event. Mark, how would I do really like? I think that he's training very nicely. The approach looks like it's coming back around. Good driving accuracy, obviously as well. Yeah, he's performing a little bit better as a flight. It causes that don't really suit his game because he is pretty short off the tee and that isn't as much an issue at this tournament. And you know, the fact he's 106 and 13 for this last two starts at TPCD run I think speaks volumes. So of those two, I think that I covered probably the better value for the price that you pay. All right, Mark Huggard, it is. David, your fourth year, how you following up your shameless power pick? Yeah, I'm sort of saying to realise that I'm going to end up leaving just a ton of salary on the table this week and that's okay. I think that that's the way it's going to just have to go. I would have probably spent a bit more head. I had Aaron Ryan on the board but obviously Spence decided to steal him off me once again. So I'm going to go to one of those names and that like low 7K, high 6K that I really like and that's Chandler Phillips at 70 100. As I mentioned, he's one of the best actually in the world between 100 and 150 yards where 35% of approach shots are going to fall within their bucket. He's second in this field since January 1st within that range. Far too short to really be competitive with the rocket mortgage. So promising that he made the cut there prior to that he was 10th at the committee in open 12th at the Charles Hall Challenge. Both of those on bent grass greens, he's gaining on driving accuracy. That tends to be his recipe is that he does tend to do well in the driving accuracy kind of markets metrics. And then at Colonial, he finished 12th at this year which is a really good form guide for what you can expect a TPCD to run. So I just think he's far too cheap at 70 100. I think he's got the upside to go and get a top 20 at this tournament. A golf course that should really suit him a lot better than Detroit golf club did. Spence, I see you shaking your head. Do you endorse Chandler Phillips this week? So when I was talking about Lauer and I was saying that there's a few players to consider and David has picked two of them now in Chandler, Phillips and Patton Kazayer. Yes, I was going to take Chandler Phillips with my next selection. So, you know, yes, I got right from you, David. You're now up to one in this game that we're playing of trying to steal picks back and forth with it. Really good value, very intriguing top 40 bet out there. You can find some interesting numbers there. Really good play. There's just, you know, I mean, I guess I can. I mean, do you guys mind if I name some of the names? Don't worry. Can I guess one of them? Yes. Is it Dylan work? Yes. That would be one of them. I think Bridgeman, there are names down there in this range that are just far too cheap for what they are. I actually have a Dylan woo matchup. It's Dylan woo over SH Kim. I got that at minus 123. Probably my favorite match up of the week so far. There's a ton to love about Dylan woo. And I always talk about don't fall for the over corrections of the market. Don't fall on the one off results. Dylan woo is a top 30 player in my model in turning this tournament. Then when I ran this for upside, he climbed even further than that. Like there's to me legitimate win equity with that answer with him. Funny enough, I'm not going to actually take Dylan woo with this pick here. I'm going to take somebody else. And it's a very close one A, one A, one B, one C sort of a scenario. I'm going to take Daniel burger. And I am going to hope that burger can put the putter together in a fashion that allows him to shoot up this leaderboard. I talked about this last week to where if you look at the recent ball striking metrics, I know he didn't put all the pieces together perfectly in the last event. But if you look at the recent ball striking metrics, he's climbing just like substantially up to where more of that prototypical return that we would expect from Daniel burger before all the injuries in the layoffs. And the thing that was the most intriguing for me is he's 114th place in my model and birdie or better percentage over a two year duration. When you run this at easy scoring courses, he jumps up to number three overall. That's one of the biggest claims I've seen somebody make when you run it in that capacity there. And yes, there's going to technically be some downfalls in the profile in general. Like the expected birdie rate at TPC deer run barely cracked the top 25. But I think with this recent combination of iron play and then the driving metrics that you're going to want to mimic this course, there is a whole ton of upside. And that's where I decided to go where I took Dylan woo and a matchup. That's a Daniel burger to win the tournament. I think you could certainly consider both of them to win the event. But you can't bet everybody at the end of the day. And I decided to get my exposure to woo in a different area of the market and take burger to win. So I'm going to take the same answer here. Well, you know, I'm never going to complain about a Daniel burger selection. I think it makes sense this week. We know we've been talking for a few weeks now about the ball striking. What are you going to find the putter in? You know, with the putter, that's the one where it's like eventually that's going to come, right? A lot of these guys we've seen at horrible sets of spots. But that's one that comes back when there's some guys that just are perpetually terrible off the team that never gets fixed. The putter is one that we he will eventually turn that around and about getting ahead of it. It's seventy four hundred. I think that pick makes a lot of sense this week. All right. I got two here. I'm glad at least my first pick made it back to me. I'm going to go ahead here and take Keith Mitchell and the Keith Mitchell pick. You know, we've been talking about his ball striking. He disappointed last week, right? He missed the cut. I think a lot of people are kind of getting off of him now. You know, he didn't give him the result they wanted. He didn't miss the cut because it was ball striking. You know, he was not great for his standards off the tee and he was terrible putting. That's really what was the issue for him. He can fix that punter and he can get back on the right track putting this week. The ball striking is there. Only ninety two hundred. If he had just made the cut last week and made some butts, he would have been in the ten K range. I think he's so really enterprise. I think you're actually going to get some ownership break on him. He's not going to be unknown, but it won't be as high as it should be because of last week. And don't let one week can completely change your outlook on an offer. He's still been playing really good golf and really good form. I think Keith Mitchell is a really good play for this week. And I'm going to pair him with Adam Spencer. Going back to Spencer this week, the one thing I want to highlight about Spencer particularly is, and I'm going to just double check this as we go through it. Last year at John Deere, he gained a stroke and a half putty. The year before 2022, he gained nine strokes. Putty. Now, this is a guy who there are biggest issue with is his putty. This guy is a good ball striker. He's good hitting his irons and he's not good at making putts. Well, the last two times of this course, he's gained one time nine strokes. The only time a stroke and half of he likes this, these greens, if he can find something with his putter here, I think that sometimes it could be a really sneaky play at 8,200. David, we'd love your take any interest in Mitchell or Spencer this week. Yeah, I mean, not only is Joel the captain of the curse, but we know that at least one player that he draws every week with cause, if you follow this show every week, Joel has a knack of picking which players just randomly withdraw. I have it on good authority that he actually spoke to Patrick Antle earlier this week and he picked up an injury with Drew before the tournament even started. And as well, I've been captain of the curse. Obviously, captain of team no putt as well from Joel with people that are going to end and send some both just dreadful putters. I think that what you've picked up on Spencer in the year is a really good point of the fact that he's gained putting two of his three tournaments here. The other one, he lost like 0.04 per round putting. So he's actually typically part of it here a lot better. I see Lisa that evidence from Keith Mitchell that this is a spot where you can turn it around. He's played here three times. He's lost putting every single time in saying that one of those times when he lost putting, he's still finished seven. So he can kind of out hurt his putter, but it just at a course where you're going to need to get to like minus 25 minus 26 to kind of win it. I'd probably prepare Spencer over Mitchell out of those two options. But nice to see that you've got the steal our speeds because he obviously keep Mitchell there and let out an audible grow when you selected them. No Spencer, light in us. Did we steal the pick? Were you interested in Keith Mitchell or Amfenton? I mean, I'm being honest Joel. I cannot believe you just did that. There's, first of all, there's no ownership around him. I thought that there was, when I made the pick of Burger, I thought it was a foregone conclusion that Keith Mitchell was going to fall back to me. I know what I'm like, I'm going to give this answer as if he was my pick right now because I'm so disgusted. I don't even know what to make my next selection. And this is where this draft gets really difficult. I have two picks left. I can't afford Davis Thompson to move up there. Like I'm going to be too far at the bottom of the board. You have ruined this entire draft Joel. When I look at Keith Mitchell, I know what I'm signing up for here. The ball striking is always going to look fine and it's going to come down to the putter. I understand the groans of nobody wanting to play him because we consistently continue to not get any return with the putter from him whatsoever on any of these events. But the only thing that was intriguing inside of my model that I at least want to throw out there, he was one of the most significant climbers for me in expected bentgrass putting over his two year baseline at any generic course. That doesn't necessarily make him a good putter. He still has flaws in the game, but he climbed enough to where I think the ball striking has a chance to really pop here. And I couldn't get there at the outright ticket, but you kind of just have to look at what the market keeps saying. Mitchell continues to not necessarily provide results, but look how scared the market is to price him at anything that's fair. There's to me legitimate win equity there. And I know that's like some people might hear that and say, well, he's one of the best. He's one of the best. He's one of the best people. 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Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the John Deere Classic!
