Team Audience finally got a win last week! Can they take down the experts in back-to-back tournaments? The crew is back this week as they deliver their favorite DFS picks, classic banter, and their famous Win Daily Rocket Mortgage Classic First-Round Leader picks.
Learn more about DeepDiveGolf here, including an EXCLUSIVE PROMO: https://windailysports.com/deep-dive-golf/ref/47/ This deal is for a LIMITED TIME ONLY so lock in TODAY!
Remember that Win Daily Premium membership grants you access to golf but also ALL our sports coverage! From the NFL, NHL, MLB, NBA, Soccer, and more, we have experts in nearly every field you can imagine. Get full access to our proven winning golf betting tips and golf DFS plays. You can speak directly with the guys, receive expert 1-on-1 coaching for DFS plus betting advice, access our projections, lineup optimizer, premium articles, tools, & expert chat.
Find out DeepDiveGolf's P/L for 2022, 2023, and 2024 here: https://windailysports.com/golf/deepdivegolf-2024-pl-tracker/ref/47/
The PGA Draft Cast is the only show on YouTube where YOU the audience draft a six-golfer PGA DFS line-up alongside the experts! The format is a standard snake-style draft. Audience members nominate their favorite plays in the chat and the first golfer to be named a second time is the audience's pick.
Follow Sia (@SiaNejad), David (@deepdivegolf), Joel (@DraftMasterFlex), and Spencer (@TeeOffSports) on Twitter. #RMC2024
#RocketMortgageClassic #RocketClassic #RocketMortgage #RocketMortgageGolf #RocketMortgageTips #RocketMortgageTips #RocketMortgagePicks #RocketMortgagePicks #RocketMortgageDFS #RocketMortgageDFS #RocketMortgageBets #RocketMortgageClassicBets #RocketMortgageFRL #DetroitGolfClub #DetroitGC #PGADFS #FantasyGolf #GolfBetting #GolfBets #DFSGolf #GolfDFS #FRLBets #FRLPicks #FantasyGolfPicks #DraftKingsGolfPicks #DraftKings #FanDuel #PGAFantasyPicks #PGAPicksThisWeek #PGAPicks #GolfPicks #PGADraftKings #PGADraft #PGALiveDraft #PGATips #PGAPicks #PGABets #PGABetting #ThePlayers #TheMasters #ScottieScheffler #Scheffler #McIlroy #RoryMcIlroy #RoryMcIlroyUSOpen #RoryMcIlroyChoke #RoryMcIlroyPutt #TigerWoods #DPWT #DPWorldTour #LIVGolf #LIVPGA #PIFPGA #PIF
(upbeat music) ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ overly strong and so I can kind of defer actually to being the third spot. See whoever audience and spends while I take here and Genshi going find some value. I think it's actually a week where given the volatility of the tournament, it's going to be extremely low scoring. As spends mentioned, you're going to have to make a lot of putts in order to keep up with, you know, winning total probably in that minus 25 to minus 30 kind of range in most instances. So, happy to embrace some of the volatility and probably just take a route of avoiding ownership. It's really just a one-key way to be successful this week. All right. Well, with the first pick, the audience is locked in on Tom Kim. I mean, Tom Kim looks spectacular last week. He's the most expensive golfer on the board. I think he's probably the best golfer in the field. I think it's a good pick, but I think strategically there's reasons why people won't play him this week. I think, you know, he's coming up a really good effort. He's the most expensive golfer on the board. He hasn't been consistently getting you top five every week and he's going to come with a really high ownership tag. So, you know, he'll definitely be in my park. Well, I will have some shares with him, but I don't really want to be overweight on Tom Kim this week. Spencer, I love your take. Are you interested in Tom Kim? Here's the way I see it with ownership and let's see where it trends over the next 24 hours, but not to give away too much on the show. But if you look at the 8,800 and up range, so that's like Aaron Ryan up. If you remove Ricky Fowler and Will Zalatoris, who are going to be the two sub 10% options, every other player in my model is somewhere between 18% owned to Tom Kim, who I have at 28% owned. So, to me, it's a pick your poison spot here. If you think Tom Kim is the best player in the tournament, he's number one in my model. I have no issues for anybody that wants to start up build with him. I do tend to think that he's the best player in the field. And if you compare him to a Cameron Young, for example, that $300 difference, I would probably rather get up to Tom Kim if ownership is going to be within five to eight percent there. So, I don't know. I mean, Joel, it just comes down to a pick your poison position, in my opinion. I would agree. And I think that makes sense from the standpoint of because it's a watered down field, you know, there's clearly an upper echelon. I think you said it right. It's about 8,800 and up is like that kind of echelon field and it really wouldn't make sense to not play, at least one, if not two of those guys in your lineup because I do think they're kind of ahead in shoulders above. And so, that's why there's a lot of ownership going up there. So, to Spencer's point, it's pick your poison, pick your way of how you want to build your life. Everybody want to go with Tom Kim and then get different elsewhere. Or if you want to go with some of those other guys up top and maybe spread out your ownership that way, either one could make sense this week. All right, Spencer, you're up with your pick here. Where are you leaning with your first pick in this draft? I don't have a massive lean either. It's kind of the same answer that David gave a second to go at the very top of the board. So, I'm going to let these decisions get made for me. I'm going to go a little bit lower down the slate and try to find value here. This is a golfer that, when I built my model to start 2024, he was a projected, and this is every single player of live golfers and PGA tour players. This was a golfer for me that was a top 25 player in expectation coming into this year. And we've got nothing of that sort, if we're being honest. Like, remove the two early top 10 showings that he's produced. He's yet to have a top 15 finish and 12 starts since then. That includes four missed cuts and additional four finishes that are 50th or worse. Here's the thing with Nikolai Huygaard that I really like. And I thought he was the best value on the board when we're talking from DFS or inside of the betting market. One of the things that he has here is he's had an inaccuracy off the tee this year that's held him back in a lot of these spots. This wide open nature, the bum and gouge that we're talking about, he was number one in my model. When I combined distance, proximity, and putting into one grade, it also found an upside for him as I talked about to use his length off the tee to overcome some of those recent questionable returns with the driver. There was not a golfer, and this is including Tom Kim here. And as everybody knows who follows my sheet, you very rarely, and I don't think Huygaard's the prototypical answer here. But you very rarely find these golfers that are this far down the board that are going to pop in the capacity that Huygaard did. I ran seven categories this week. In six of the categories, Huygaard landed inside the top 10 for me, and in five of those categories, he landed inside the top 30, the only person that equaled that was Tom Kim. I think Nikolai Huygaard, while it's going to be a boomer bust option here at the end of the day, I love his ceiling performance that he could potentially provide here. With the top of the board, not necessarily having a route that I must go, I'm going to lock in value and I'll let everything come from there. Wow, there you have it, and it's confirmed by the facial reaction, stolen pick from David. David, I can tell you were in pain. So I want to get your take. It looks like you wanted, Huygaard, were you looking to take him with your first pick here? Yes, yes I was, Joel, and that was heart wrenching to experience that. I was so sure that I'd get to Nikolai Huygaard in spot number three here. I wasn't sure if you were considering him, so I did want to take him with the third pick in the draft. A lot of that comes down to what Spencer's just said. He's got tons of distance off the tee. Obviously he had a landmark victory towards the end of last year when he won the DP World Tour Championship. They're seizing and doing event. We're on him that week as well, and he's got that ability to go very, very low. What we've also seen the last few events is his approach metrics have really turned around. He gave us all strokes and approach at a very difficult US Open at Pinehurst. He also quietly finished 16th at the Masters, which I think a lot of people missed, and he's getting to a spot where I think that this is one of the best course fits for Nikolai Huygaard that we've had so far this season. I'd compare it to a course on the DP World Tour, Al Hamra, which is host of the Russell Hamer Championship, where he won again a very low scoring event, but a tournament where there's tons of space off the tee, and you've got to need to make a lot of parts to achieve victory. So, he was one of the Iran Fox was also a winner of that golf tournament as well, very, very similar profile, I think, to what we're going to see this week in Detroit. So, I got it, absolutely got it to miss out on Nikolai, but just credit to Spins, I guess, for identifying from my comments of wanting to go find value, that this was a very good place to take Nikolai on the first round. You've spent a great job getting a steal early. David, you've got to pivot. You've got your first pick here. Where are you going to go with your first pick in this round? Well, in lieu of Nikolai Huygaard, I guess I'll take who I was going to take if I got him on the wrap round, and I'll work out what I'm going to do with this bill from here now that Spins is absolutely ruined in my draft. So, I will take Cam Davis with my first section, who I would have taken, had he made his way back to me. Big things were really expected of Cam Davis in 2024. We'd seen a lot of training metrics from him that looked very, very promising, particularly towards the end of last year, where we went on a run of just top 10s and about 7 or 8 tournaments in a row. He arrives at golf course where he's won previously, followed that up with the 14th and 17th, and if we are looking for a tournament where it is a bit of a bonus paradise, we obviously know that Cam Davis is plenty of distance off the tee. I don't, I'm not too worried about his performances that the travel is the US Open and the Memorial, just given all three of those tournaments, they're kind of more focused on driving accuracy than they are at distance, and this is very much the polar opposite. He's one of the least penal spots off the tee, and he's a golfer with tons of upside, what I think is a very cheap price at 7,200. I also thought it was going to be a lot more owned than he is. I'm getting 10% ownership at the moment, compared to say Nikolai Hawigal was about 12, 12 and a half. But I was surprised to see him being cheap and then Nikolai obviously very popular name and getting all his own ownership as well. So, have you taken, although I'd much rather would have taken Nikolai and can confirm, have passed at least three kidney stones in this time? Well, there you have it, Cameron Davis, 7,200 value going off the board early tonight. I'm actually not on camera day of this week. I certainly see the upside, you know, and maybe the more we, I think, and talk with you guys, I might come back around there, but I'd love to get your take Spencer. Are you playing Ken Davis this week? I think it's the same general theory for the most part behind the Nikolai Hawigal play. If you look at the recent form that David just alluded to, you're not going to see anything that he's really provided since, I guess, the Masters, if we want to go back to that, but three consecutive top 17 finishes at this course. I hit him here in 2021 when he won this event. The ability to bum and gouge is right in his wheelhouse and the price tag is frankly too cheap at 7200 and it's kind of what happened on this board with a lot of these names in my opinion like there's a lot of these golfers in this number sevens, even into the sixes where, you know, we could have put them in the high $7,000 range and maybe even like the low eight thousands and gotten a very similar expectation from them there and, you know, in theory, it probably would have been better and Cameron Davis would have been more expensive just because it would have gotten some people off of them from the recent form but I think this is one of those spots where it's it's looking for upside and Cameron Davis certainly has as much of that as almost anybody that you can find down here. Oh, I love it. I love it. All right. I got to. I do think my approach this week works best in a more balanced build. And when I meet my balance, you can still get some guys at the top. You just doesn't have to go, you know, above 10K. And by doing so, I'm going to start by taking actually bought yet. And I'm going to pair him here with Keith Mitchell. Now, you know, actually bought it obviously was great last week got to a top five finish. He's just been playing really good golf. In terms of this field, you know, I think he's easily a top five talent in the field. You're paying about you think he's the fifth highest price guy so I think the pricing is totally fair but I think the upside is there for everybody who had a women tournament, especially if he makes it up like he did at the travelers. We know he's around the green game is is a mixed bag. He gave five strokes with the US Open has otherwise not been great but his approach is very strong as often he has been excellent and can make pots. I think about this game is really come rounding out. And Keith Mitchell is just playing great golf right now and this is the type of field I expect to show up and have a really good result it's a little bit of a watered down field at 8500 he is one of the better golfers. He's gonna be in some of those proximity metrics he's gonna upgrade really well. But the most impressive thing about Keith Mitchell is since the Phoenix Open in February he's gained strokes that approach every single tournament he's playing and that's a leg in tournaments maybe 12 since then so. And his approach numbers have been fantastic is off the tee I mean he's also gained strokes off the tee in every tournament since February 11 as well so he's really striking the wall excellent if you can make some pots I think he's Mitchell with that being said David you got the next pick but I would love your take on both actually about to keep Mitchell this week. Yeah both in consideration for me this week I think Bartier has narrowed a lot in betting markets and obviously can't then adjust your divis price afterwards right so the fact that there's sharp money moving that direction. I think it's really promising and he's added an element of consistency to his game obviously as I mentioned he was within our betting tips last week was one off the lead going into the final round. The final round the year on Sunday playing with Amishia Flynn Tumkin which I can forgive given I think the moment and also playing with someone like Scottie Heffler and right there next year the whole round was a bit indifferent finish minus one but he was right there throughout their tournament and the consistency you've seen from him. So just know Bartier has the ability to go and shoot like a minus a to minus nine a minus 10 like he has that ability to absolutely pop and get very very hot with his partners so the combination of the long driving distance driving accuracy has a building on approach and the ability to get very hot with his partner is very promising and in regards to Keith Mitchell. I am so surprised for his ownership like because objectively like in the stand of the field he's cheaper 8500 particularly when you put him up against like Ricky Fowler at 9000. He's the third lowest on for me above 8500 in terms of ownership projections and I feel given his price he actually would have attracted a lot more ownership and a golf course that I think actually really suits him so I think they're both very, very good picks. One of the best picks that I would have considered and it was actually hoping to say Bartier with my second pick so that's double back to back and storm picks from me. You love a stolen pick always makes you feel good there but by going value with your first thing you left yourself with plenty of salary left to go get someone are you going to spend up here with your second pick where are you going here. I am going to go and spend a little bit of salary here I probably would have gone Bartier over this player with the expectation that he probably wouldn't get back to me. But I do think I need to have at least one of these guys and over 9k just given that they do possess a decent amount of win equity so I'm going to go ahead and take Samanjaga obviously a very, very strong driver of the golf ball which we all know and love about his game. He's also very, very good on the approach and he's just gained over 4 strokes on the approach of the Travers champion should be a good U.S. Open where he finished 21st. One that takes us children's open Houston open sorry earlier this year defeating Scotty Cheffler which is a pretty impressive feat in the world of golf these days so he's got a good record here he's finished 5th and 9th of the last 2 appearances and then another Donald Ross in the design at Seachfield he's finished 13th at 14th at another tournament that is a bit of a booty kind of wedge vs that you're going to see this week so I do think he's a very viable option not too concerned about his ownership I'm seeing like 18% which of those top end guys is actually one of the lower options. There you have it Stephen here who's shown especially made water down tournaments he's played up and and had some really good showings I think he is a nice option that 9k range Spencer you got your second pick here but would love your take on your group Lois Stone player for me 8800 and above and I keep going to the Zallator's Fowler remove them from the mix for one second he would be the lowest on name I think there's a lot of safety around his profile it's going to come down to can he make putts if he makes putts the ball striking here from what we've seen historically from him on this course and on similar venues I think there's a lot to like so I have absolutely no issues with anybody who wants to play Stephen Yeager I'm going to continue and this isn't what I was planning to do to start this show but I'm going to take another very popular $7,000 golfer I guess my one concern with this name is he is coming overseas from the Netherlands and I know he's expressed that he is a little bit tired from that trip but he loves this course and this is why he's here but I'm going to take Matt Wallace at 7400 inside of the top 10 of my model when you look at expected strokes gain total for this course two top 12 finishes during the three times that he's played it and a lot of the statistical metrics well my model is not usually this high on him I think there's a reason why it is here like you take the recent performances you merge it in with the course history and then you take this statistical data that's popping him in my model even at like I see 13% right now and I see a very similar ownership for Hoigard at about 12% but these are two names for me that should have been a $1,000 or higher more expensive so I think I'm getting such a rebate in their price tag that I'm willing to get a little bit more on the ownership frontier and I'm not necessarily like if you're going to find yourself in a spot where you're playing a popular mid tier player you have to be very above the market on those names to make sure you can get overweight and both of those two options are top 10 in my model this week so I'll continue the value route with Matt Wallace. I like Matt Wallace I usually like Matt Wallace you know the one thing that turns me off to Matt Wallace to your point Spencer is ownership you know he's usually a sneaky unknown divide that we go after in a bigger field we're here he's you know going to be higher on the he's still cheaper so I think you know in a watered down field that's why we like the upside and that final ownership number don't forget to check out Stephen's article Wednesday night to see what that ends up looking like we'll be a determining factor how much exposure I end up with on the Matt Wallace side audience you got two here let's get both those nominations and lock them in for the turn but David would love your take this week on Matt Wallace I agree with you someone to the ownership I do think there's a little bit too for Matt Wallace as has been mentioned given the travel factor as well I hadn't met Wallace at 2021 last week at the KLE Open ended up closing at 15 is the favorite so a lot of money did come his way and he was positioned really really well going into the final round and again just didn't have a final round that was worthy of note basically I'm shooting two over in the last round at a pretty low scoring course and the moment maybe got a little bit too big for him but look if we do think this is comparable to the DP World Tour Championship in terms of course but which I which I do think is a good correlation Nikolai Hawigard won the Matt Wallace for second year and we famously were on both of them that week when we had one to finish at the DP World Tour in terms of our betting selection so he does have the ability to go low and I think the nice thing about the pricing for him here is that you don't actually need him to go on and win the tournament and Matt Wallace has had difficulties giving across the line on the PGA Tour but you don't need him at that price to go and win it at 7400 like if you get a top 20 top 15 our Matt Wallace here that's going to be sufficient with the way that Spencer's obviously going to build the rest of his line up here boom there you have it Matt Wallace endorsed the audience first pick is in and it's Taylor Pendreth which for me is a very good pick I like Pendreth listen his ownership is going to be hot we know that but he is playing so well I think he is worth every dollar of his price tag him that he could have been higher and it's the consistency with that putter he's going to gain strokes putting he's been pretty consistent with his iron play more recently the combination of the two here I think is going to ensure him a pretty good result at 9600 I was looking to get kind of on my team I definitely endorsed that pick while we wait for the final up it's Aaron Rye another guy I was looking to take so I'm going to be in scramble more than this next round they both guys were going to be pretty popular but I think both guys make a lot of sense for this week would love to get your take spends are you on Pendreth or Rye this week I bet Taylor Pendreth at 40 to 1 when the board open he's been pushed more down into the 30 to 1 range now a lot of what he's done has been with the putter but when you look specifically at easy scoring courses number one in my model there he's also number one in an additional area of the seven categories I ran so he has the high end marks I think with like these $8,000 names rye being one of them there's going to be a lot of ownership with them but I really have anything negative to say about Aaron Rye unfortunately like my model like some a ton inside of the top 10 for me and all iterations of how I built it the overall rank was in the top five I think there's a large safety return from him that I'm getting inside of my sheet there is some negative trajectory for upside but even if you look at what he's done in the outright market it's the same answer as Pendreth where those are two names that opened at 40 to 1 that have been pushed down to 30 to 1 so there's influential money enough I don't think that that's just square money pushing that town to get it to that territory but you know I think when you look at the audiences team in particular that is a very common build that I think you're going to see across the board this is where the audience will now have to figure out a way to get different with this lineup if you're going to enter it in large field contest and the audience it is popular start but you kept three more picks you can go really differently the last three and make that work I think those are three solid picks but to Spencer's point you will want to get different to finish this draft Spencer you have plenty of money to spend 8800 perfect to go where are you going with your third pick? I'm talking about getting different and I'm going to select the name here that's one of the most popular options on the board so I'm not necessarily following that own advice with it and I think I only need to find a spot or two to get different and we can do that later in the draft but a very similar answer to the Aaron Wright discussion that was had there is a player for me that is a top five projected safety play in this tournament that has top 10 projected win equity in my sheet that's my dad works in B2B marketing he came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend my friend still laughing me to this day not everyone gets B2B but with LinkedIn you'll be able to reach people who do get $100 credit on your next ad campaign go to LinkedIn.com/results to claim your credit that's LinkedIn.com/results terms and conditions apply LinkedIn the place to be to be Rick McNeely at 8900 three consecutive top 23 finishes he has two top 21s here in three attempts we have really seen him over I would say the past two and a half months since returning just really produce one quality finish after the next year I think there's a lot to like about him even at this 21% ownership mark I need it to be higher than that according to my model for their not to be value there so I think we're getting a very neutral leverage spot but a high end return when it comes to his actual price tag compared to what my model expects from him so I will take Maverick McNeely at 8900 well I do it the truth here I am getting crushed in these last couple of things these were all the guys I was lining up I like to Madam McNeely pick I think he's another guy I like kind of staying in this range I think you're different you're you know keep Mitchell Stephen Yeager is Madam McNeely Aaron Rye you can build a pretty balanced line up in this kind of high 8k low 9k range with all guys have plenty of upside so that is my target I'm with you I think Madam McNeely has been playing great golf and there's water down field looks like a really good spot for him David we love your take are you on Madam McNeely this week as well Yeah look I do think that we need to speak to what Nav McNeely has been doing we've always known he's a very very good putter obviously plays it and TPC Samoan so if we think the shrine is very low and scoring golf course with please by self the T is going to be corollary to what we're going to see this week Obviously he's got tons of experience on that that golf course as well but the pleasing thing from his as we know great putter but the approach metrics are just really really picked up and so he's gained on approach in four of his last five starts where there's an individual events and obviously we can discount the Zurich a bit because that's just a weird event and the other pleasing thing for him as well is in four terms the road he's actually gained on driving accuracy as well so all of that suggests to me that his swing looks like it's makes him really really good improvements alongside the fact that he's already got an external game so I do think that's a very promising recipe returning to a golf course that he obviously plays very well at whom I am with you there all right David you got eighty three hundred per pick to go you're on your third pick here where you going with this next pick Yeah and and had to change my draft strategy a little bit since Spencer were in my draft with that first pick of Nikolai Huygard in the first round so I'm going to go and take Alex Noren at ten thousand two hundred and only sixteen percent ownership which I find very very surprising and I think a lot of that comes down to what spends mention at the top of the show but the course breakdown that this has had a tendency to be a bombing gouge approach but then when you look through these leaderboards there's obviously also been a number of golfers who have found a lot of fairways but are also very very good putters who have managed to find their way inside the top ten and if if we're all operating on the basis that bombing gouge is the route to go we all just take the Taylor Pendereths and Patrick Rogers and Cam Davis of the world we all end up with the same lineups and then you miss out on the value with leverage of guys like Alex Noren who if Alex Noren came out and finished top ten I don't actually think many people would be surprised he's a very very good golfer in terms of his ability playing the wind his ability on approach but particularly with his putter he can get absolutely red hot and was seen at a number of tournaments this year and low scoring events probably most notably at the Byron Nelson when he finished third and he's finished fourth and ninth year in two of the last three tournaments so his last two appearances both being top nines and you're getting a golfer at 16% I think largely just because of the way that people are building their course profiles Alex Noren has been having a very solid season I was starting to think of pipping to Amir and his water down good I think there's plenty of upset plus he's played well here before he likes this course so it does look like a good spot for him Spence what say you on Alex Noren this week? I think he's safe I think if we're looking at these ten thousand dollar golfers there's probably other routes that I would prefer going when directly comparing but I think he's a safe name which what David talked about a second ago he is going to very likely be the lowest option from Taylor Pendreth and up and substantially so when comparing him to a lot of these names like when he's 10% less on than Tom Kim it does make a opinion that has to be formed one way or another I'm probably not going to get him but good course history good form this season he's a golfer that I've been on a lot over the past two years just don't know if I'm going to get him in this spot here makes make sense all right I got to my game plan had to adjust after the last two rounds and a lot of the guys I was planning on doing taking so I originally was saying I was going to try and stay really balanced that option was taken away from me so I'm going to go up to the top here and I'm going to take Cameron Young with this third pick he showed some life last week of the travels at the ninth place finish you know he's you know almost the epitome of the bombing gouge approach he's going to be able to bomb it you know the question mark is going to be can he make some putts if he can find a way to make some putts this week I think he will have a really good weekend and should be able to show I like the fact that the water downfield it's ability for him to come out have a good result regain some confidence so in terms of upside it's certainly there and even though you're paying a little bit of a hefty price I certainly can get behind that I'm also going to pair him with Adam Spencer with my next pick he's going to see the green numbers are going to look really good he hasn't missed the cut since March but he can really go off the rails on the putter and we've seen some weeks where he's lost you mean just two weeks ago the US only lost six drove I don't think these are going to be conditions like the US Open Pudding wise he gained a stroke putting last week at the travelers and we can get a neutral putter or even some positive putting I think you get another really good result from out of sense in this week so certainly upside in the 7K range David I love your take are you interested at all and Adam Spencer or Cameron Young this week Yeah and Joel going firmly for team no putter with both of his selections which is great to see my look my concern with came young I do think Cameron Young wins on the PGA to it don't get me wrong but whenever a golfer comes out and does something like shoots a 59 in a signature event and a lot of people see it It's like just a recipe for a guy to get steamed for ownership as the week goes on it's like the situation where people just go like oh yeah Cameron Young had like a 59 and they just take them into a lineup at a course especially where you finished second last year and my question comes at someone who you're paying 10,704 ideally you want this guy to go out and win the tournament or finish top five and we've consistently seen Kim Young put himself in positions to win tournaments and he failed to get across the line I think he does it I think the ideals situation for him is he's like three four shots off the lead entering sunday and then goes out and just shoots a very good round and posts a number and nobody can catch him I think that's his best chance to get that when done I guess yeah earlier this year that by diesel classic we saw the exact same thing where it was like every time Kim Young was like in contention on the Sunday to win the tournament he found a way to throw it away With sense and yeah the concern for me comes with the putter I do think he's an option to potentially get a little bit different and in his favor the greens this week of the exact same as they were last week of the travelers and again strokes So if the found something on the greens that he likes there should be some correlation to what we're going to see on the green suspect There you have it alright some great information to think about David you got your fourth pick here 7700 per pick left where you heading and kind of continuing down this route of being a mostly balanced build for the for the most part I'm going to take a golfer who again I was surprised to see him as low owned as he is I'm getting seven and a half percent at the moment on Eric Van Royne And I think a lot of that comes down to the fact he's coming in off the miscut a 42nd a 52rd it's not sparkling form that he's coming in here with but bear in mind pine has was very very favored towards people who were good on driving accuracy It was also incredibly tough greens and I can always forgive a miscut from someone like Eric Van Royne who we're not expecting to be super competitive it's something like us open but what really caused me is there's the correlation to the tournament he did when in Mexico And I think in terms of metrics that could be required this week in terms of victory winning score deals minus 27 he managed to keep up with that pace of play there as well and if you look at the metal beach classic which to be honest was like in terms of strength I think it was a fairly similar, it was a driver he got off course it really favored long drivers Chris Goderep one Davis Thompson was right there Ryan Fox was right there really favored those bombers he was fourth year just a few starts before if we discount These recent tournaments which have been a lot more focused on driving accuracy so I do think Eric Van Royne's improved golf with any was this time of year ago so to get him at low ownership at a decent salary saving is an interesting option. I think this tournament is really intriguing for a guy like EVR because it feels like this is one where he could pop or his talent has a little bit more upsides in his water down field. He wasn't on my radar but he's definitely someone I could be talked into spends you have your fourth pick here plenty of money to spend but would love your take first on EVR. I'm not going to get there on Van Royne, the upside answer that Van Royne possesses at limited ownership would be the intrigue behind this discussion. That part I can get behind with it but I guess I'll, maybe I'll end up regretting going this route with my pick but it's a decent segue into the choice that I'm going to make here so we'll have it for the show and if it ends up biting me I'm losing one of my players. We'll deal with that fact at the end here but I have a head to head match up this week where I took on Eric Van Royne and I did it with funny enough David's boy in Ryan Fox. For me, we're looking and we've talked about a lot of these $8,000 and up names where there's tons of popularity rightfully so in a lot of these options but tons of popularity around these names and then you get Ryan Fox who's playing the best golf that he's played in the entire year, all the statistical data is now starting to trend in the right direction for him, inside of the top 15 of my model, and he's 8% owned when every other golfer that we're talking about above him other than Fowler and Zalatoris are going to be over 10% McIntyre's 12 and every other names like 15% plus so Ryan Fox's ability to hit the ball long, his ability to make putts and spurts and his ability to play with his short iron play. This is kind of that prototypical recipe to find success here. I don't have an outright ticket on him. I do think he's a very, I don't want to even say a dark horse name here he's 50 to one in the market but I think he's one of those very interesting names there at 50 to one to where if he gets across the finish line on Sunday and he wins on the PGA Tour, I will not be shocked. This is a very nice course fit for him. Interesting pick, we're definitely going to have to break that down in one second audience you got two here. So get your nominations in, let's get the lock button in for those those two picks on this turn. While we wait for that. I like Ryan Fox this week as well I think he's a little bit underpriced. I think the points that you may be can bomb, you can get out of that putter, but I really want to hear from you David your boy Ryan Fox. Are you playing this week or not. It's it's an interesting question Ryan Fox because I agree that the course really fits in like he can spray the ball off the tee. That's fine. There's correlation to our hammer, which is the tournament. He's won the clock or guards won. So now Spencer's got both of those guys in there too. And the interesting thing with Detroit Golf Club is you end up with this weird kind of gap in terms of the approach metrics. There's a huge number of shots over 250 yards. Obviously Ryan Fox has the ability to go for that because of his huge driving distance in his club speed speed, but then you've got just proportionate number shots in 125 and less. And there's the kind of like gray area between 125 to 200 where you don't get many approach shots and the good thing with with Foxy is he's very, very good with his which is as well as his long lines and he can actually struggle with his middle hands a little bit in the middle there. So I think he's intriguing from that perspective. The only thing that's kind of put me off Foxy this week is he's on, he's on record to saying he doesn't necessarily like these booty fests as much. He does a difficult case where he can kind of grind it out a little bit more. So I do think that he plays well I would not be surprised that he finishes top 40. My question just comes, does he actually get towards that like minus 25 to minus 30 mark and at 8200 it's kind of entering that round where I want him to be in contention at that kind of price. And I'm just not sure that that I think he might just be better suited of course where he can make a couple of bogeys and kind of get away with it because every golf is making bogeys whereas this week it's like you just got to go out and shoot low and he's on record to say like he doesn't like these places where he wakes up and he's like already seeing people at minus eight on the leadboard. There you have it. We have the match of Beth expensive already mentioned that he's targeting everyone. David doesn't like Fox is there going to be a wager this week. Yeah, I won't put it put up money on it because I do actually think that Ryan Fox is possibly a beta selection near New York and Royne is just the way I'm going to round up the rest of my lineup in terms of the budget that I need that I couldn't take Foxy. But yeah, I just I don't think that. Yeah, I'm so confused with what's good if I'm completely honest. I also think that's a very fair argument that that David made about Ryan Fox like there is a negative movement in my model for upside with him. When I'm looking at a golfer here that's inside of the top 15 of my model at limited ownership where I'm creating the leverage. You take that chance there but he does move outside of the top 20 for me and upside and that's just like one or two categories pushing him in the wrong direction. I think there's enough safety in the profile which David talked about to where the ownership is low enough. If we end up reaching a position here though where this ownership moves into like the 121314 15% range. I'm very okay moving away from Ryan Fox and that capacity. Fair enough. There you have it to be determined this week. Audience you still need your second pick in falling behind here but the first one's in the first one's going to be all is in while we wait for that second pick to be confirmed which looks like it just was in Bridgman. I'd love to get your take spent. Are you interested in either Bridgman or Oles in this week. I like both of those two plays I wrote in my rotoballer article yesterday that Oles in was one of my favorite $6,000 golfers. I actually put him as my favorite $6,000 play in that section there. And then Bridgman I have a top 40 bet on that plus 240 at bet rivers so I think the audience has gotten a lot of really interesting value on this build that they've put together like I like what they've done from top to bottom so far. Ooh audience doing a great job looking for back to back wins can they pull it off to be determined. Spence you get to follow up this fox bit with plenty of money to go. Who are you targeting here. I'm going to go with Daniel burger at $7,000 burger sensory turning and he got off to a really fast start on the opening week that he played at the American Express. Followed it up at the WM Phoenix open where also produce results and then there was a lot of really negative results from there three miss cuts in a row. Add Houston that was a 45th Corallis was a 50th kind of hit and miss results but if you look at the actual ball striking that he's produced over the last handful of weeks gain 10.7 strokes teed a green at the US open gained six strokes teed a green at the Byron Nelson. To me this is just a golfer that I'd rather be a little bit too early on we know about the pedigree and the skill set that he had when he was at his very best and if he's starting to transform back into that area here. I think burger here is too cheap of an option and what is truly a watered down field if we come back to this tournament in a year and burger has regained his form and everybody knows it. We're now talking about a golfer that's like right in that Alex Norrin range potentially so it's just grabbing the player and hoping that what we've seen recently turns around and while the putter has been very troublesome in a lot of these results some of the specific metrics in my model. At least had a positive nature to it where he got better on this specific surface so if the putter can turn around I think we have a golfer here that's too cheap. I agree with you I you know me I'm a David Daniel Burger fan I usually play him. The ball trick is there and he is the captain right now of team no but unfortunately he's really struggling on these greens but to your point spends if you can find a way to just be neutral but in I think he's going to get a really good result at 7K. I think that's a really strong price tag. So I like burger David I would love your take on Daniel Burger this week. And though I mean I just read exactly what you guys have said really I think he's too cheap at 7000 I'd rather be early on then late on him. We know that he's got huge upside concerns come with the putter he's going to be to find something with flats to keep up with scoring but both of you guys have acknowledged that and I guess part of that is why you're getting kind of the ownership that you are because 7% when he's 7K it clearly too cheap for the quality golfer that we know he is. He's definitely under open to where he should be. The risk as you mentioned is just any heat up with the putter if he can he's got all of the other aspects of his game going from and looks like he's back and healthy and just finding out finding the way to get back to the PGA to his bed on the greens which is great to say. Absolutely all right David you got 7700 per pick here to to go where are you leaning with your fifth pick. And so I'm going to go and take Lee haunches here at 7100 and just based on the fact of what Joel has got because I'm worried that he won't get back to me. He's just killing him on approach for environment right he's just constantly gaining on approach. The other thing we've noticed is driving next to you also training in the right direction. The problem with Lee Hodges has often been around the green could be a real tricky spot for him. This is one of the least correlated between success and around the green play I guess the majority of that being that if you're missing greens here you're really not going to be in contention anyway because you've got to go so low. But he has part of here really really well in previous tournaments and the approach by the moment is some of the best that we've seen in regards to around the green. He's gained around the green in three of his last five appearances and then he was at field neutral last week at the Trampolist Championship. So that's really promising I think he is too cheap at 7100 and just very interesting to see what he does on approach with his long lines which is one of the strongest aspects of this game. So yeah I think he's a very very strong selection and surprised that he's only 9% owned at that sort of price. Yeah that was a stolen pick for me and the shame of it was my backup option was burger. Now I really got to go back to the drawing board here but yeah I like Lee Hodges and it's another one of those where it's like he's just been really consistent this season. You know getting you know 30s you know 20 top 30s 20 results and then there's a watered down field that just goes up right to top 15 potentially 10 at 7100 I thought they underpriced them for this weekend. For some odd reason I don't feel like the ownership followed so I think he's really a great value pick for DFS this week. Alright I'm going to have to pivot here I'm going to not use all my money because things really took a turn for me there. I'm going to pivot and take my boy like I've been on all year he's been had he wrote them ups and downs for us. And that's real is it Hysuswine Hysuswine is that how you pronounce it I don't know how to pronounce it last name but it's something. Hysuswine Hysuswine Hysuswine Hysuswine. Listen, his ball striking has been fantastic he's been getting off the tee. You know he didn't play great with his putter at the Canadian but other than that he's been doing this part I think this should be a course that suits him. I've been in my two top 20 since May I think this can be another really good result at 6800 6900 I think he's pretty underpriced. And then I'm going to leave some salary on the table here and I'm going to take a shot on Joel dominant who you know we know you know the ball striking is there. That's you know firmly on the leadership team of team no putt you know he showed some signs of life last week where he gained four strokes putting or two weeks ago at the Canadian was more than early in June. But that was really the only time his game strokes putting since you know March, if he can follow that up and get some momentum and continue again just being neutral with the putter I don't even need him to gain four strokes. That's been really good result at 6100 that just seems too cheap for Joel dominant even without it even without his ability to make any putt so I will stick with him there. Would love your take there David are you interested in Rio or diamond. And I love this comment from from Zach his last name is pronounced with. Just obviously referring to the fact that Joel was cursed and players who are completely healthy will find ways to withdraw from the tournament as soon as Joel drafts them on the PJ drive pass which is fantastic. My my concern with high sets and a comes from I think that he's strong with the golf courses we can utilize his very accurate driving off the team which this is not the case here in saying that it kind of goes back to my argument if we all build in the same way we all end up with the same lineups and we've missed the leverage to like potentially high sets in a that if he does go out and score really well there while we're missing out on the leverage on a player who we know has got upside so they'll be the the counter arguments that diamond is really interesting to me again I don't think he fits that mold in terms of the driving distance necessarily but he is very very good on his law line approach. One of the best actually in the field for approach over 200 yards. The approach play looks like it's really popping. He has going on putting here previously when he finished 21st and the fact that he put a very well Canadian open on being grass greens I think is promising as well so he was in a treaty night for me down at 6100 along with Vince Bailey. I don't know if he was within your consideration of that pricing as well but he's played very well at long driving golf courses where long on approach it very important as well so I think diamond or wailing was an interesting way to round out that liner. Ooh there you have it David you got one left as well 8300 to spend how are you rounding out the squad. Yeah and like probably a somewhat obvious pick here I'm going to use all my salary this week and go and take Davis Thompson who's very very popular this week I understand that but not at the US Open when he was tipped by us at three hundred to one. He's on a very positive trajectory in terms of his ball striking in particular and tons of distance off the tree can spread a little bit that's not so much of a worry here. The other golf heaven ranked as the 46th best player in the world at the moment which I think a lot of people are missing and played here twice back in 2021 before he was even on the PGA Tour made the cut their week and he finished 24th last year as well. In terms of like low scoring golf courses, Myrtle Beach he finished seconds which I thought was a very very interesting correlation to have a look at what we might expect out of Detroit and then play well at the shrine as previously as well he had the 12th best so I think he's an intriguing option at the top. Not super pleased about using all my salary is Stephen Palavi who does the best ownership articles in the business for when daily and definitely check the link in the description if you want access to some of his numbers because they are extremely sharp. But like as he said in the chat kind of a week that you can be quite comfortable leaving some money on the table. Going for for leverage I've owned a ship I think is a very very interesting route but look overall happy with my lineup after this been sold and the first pick off me in the title. Boom Davis Thompson, I was intrigued I think the only reason I was kind of shining off because the ownership does look like it's getting high which name are you mentioning but he was definitely someone I was looking at. Early on spent would love your take on Davis council this week. I think that's the best pick that was on the board for David there. A lot to like about Davis Thompson the ownership is starting to trend like very up there at this moment but like the selection for my pick. I mean I think it's pretty obvious which route I'm going if I don't go this direction I'm going to leave $3,000 on the table and I'm even still going to be leaving a lot but I'm going to take me in wooly. This is a way for me where I have a very popular build here with how I put this together but I've left a lot of money on the table to differentiate the build in that capacity. There was no player in this field that had a higher ceiling projection for me than him my model ranked him second for distance proximity and putting landed at the same exact total for weighted strokes gain total. I know that there was some trepidation in the market originally like even in the outright market when this initially open just because we're looking at a golfer who doesn't have a top 20 on his resume over the past eight tournaments. I think that very quickly change we've seen him now push more into the 18 to one range. He was him and Hoigard were the two first tickets that I punched on Monday. You know it was going to be one or the other that was going to be my first pick in this draft and I decided to let me go if somebody was going to take him and then as I saw how this draft started unfolding. It was very simple to know that he was going to get back to me at the end so I left him here this is not necessarily an answer that I think he is the player that was left over I actually if I'm being honest Joel when you took Cameron Young. I was very terrified that when you were going up in the salary scale that it might be men wooly there, because then that would have completely altered the strategy because I didn't envision you doing that at that moment but happy to get men woo here with the final pick. Thank you for your question with this men move back. Give us your ranking of the golfers above 9400. Where would men move fall where you would have taken the Carlos of the draft. He's the second player in my model in my rankings like the only player that's higher than him is Tom Ken. Would it have been your second overall player to play. If we were if we were building this in a capacity like the highest upside climber for me was Huygard which made this very simple because I was okay and going with any of the directions of rye or Pendreth or McNeely like there were a lot of Keith Mitchell there were a lot of names that I was fine mixing and matching into the mix there but if this was just strictly take the best player on the board. I would have taken Tom Kim first I would have taken minimally second. Oh, that's the answer I was looking for. All right, lock it in there audience you got your last pick 7400 to spend to lock it in will wait for those nominations to finalize while we wait for that final pick and it does look like it is going to be Eric Cole. I will ask you David quickly is there anyone that you're surprised did not get drafted. Anyone I'm surprised did not get drafted I mean I'm surprised that minimally when in the last round I would have thought that he was very very popular this week I would have thought he would have gone a lot earlier so the expense has done very very well to pick him up in the final and still managed to grab and despite yeah the way the rest of the rap draft are kind of gone. Probably should have taken with your first pick Spencer and Nicole Ivoigard I think would have been the way to play it. No, look I don't think anyone majorly I mean we didn't take Bobby Mack and that might be someone worth considering obviously coming off a pretty famous victory. I think he'll be a popular name and another one maybe Patrick Rogers I think that this is a sort of golf course that profiles well for him. I'm not really gaining too much them in the market of the moment. I think he's an interesting option in terms of if you're looking for a long drive to the golf ball who can heat up with a putt at work Patrick Rogers is kind of everything. Yeah I would agree with that. Spence before we wrap up this draft we'd love your take are you interested at all in Eric Cole. I don't know my model likes him every single week I guess I'm just afraid that he is completely broken at this moment but. I think he's telling darts down here like another name that I would at least like to throw out there that I thought was interesting is dug in. Like Doug him would have been an intriguing route to go also for a player that my model like but. My model like Derek Cole I that's probably a little bit of the portion of just running a two year running model. And a lot of this recent stuff hasn't been overly baked into the equation right now but. Upside in players like burger and coal like these are names that at least a year ago ago Eric Cole in this tournament. We can't look at it this way but Eric Cole would have been what. 9000 something dollars like I don't know what has happened to him over the past. Seven months this is just been the fall from grace of all time. It's true you're right he was playing great golf this time last year and he had the tightest time so. It's interesting take it's an interesting decision to make but that's a wrap for this draft as we pull this draft board down don't forget to smash the like button. Give us a follow it goes a long way. We will crown a champion this week come back next week and do it again. Ten of these audience can team audience go back to back great draft last week. Team is not looking at strong this week at least David's head dives are saying I don't think so to be determined before we let you go tonight we do have our first round leaders. And David will start with you who you're looking at in the first round leader market. Yeah I do think it's a weaker team audience team this week unfortunately and I think Eric Cole was a strange pick for them on a golf course that is very driver here because he's very famously not long with driver and not accurate the driver either. And that is a club that you do need to be firing at Detroit golf club basically regardless of whether you're finding the fairway or hitting it long you need to be doing one of those two things and Eric Cole kind of fails on both of those so. I thought Sam Stevens was actually a name that they should have considered and I saw that in the chat at one point and actually give Zach props for that one I do think he was the right pick for the audience with what they had left there. All four first round leaders at the moment. I probably will have another one or two so make sure that you check out the link in the description we've got a special promotion at the moment leading up to the Open Championship. The field like a keen special and going to the UK and obviously King Charles and playing at Royal True and you're going to get 50% off your annual memberships. So the absolute best time to sign up is right now if you've ever considered it. And you'll be able to access or betting tip selections to your best place. Ownership projections that said Stephen in the chat and Steve bloody the best ownership projections in the market or that is open to you so make sure you check that out in the description. The four that I'll give out now though 45 to one bar tier. As I mentioned last week we had him at 80 to one in the win market 60 to one in the first round leader market. This week he's narrowed in the win market and then his first round leader market is nowhere near what he is to win the tournament and we know that he can actually go out and pop for one round. And 45 to one is very generous. Keith Mitchell at 60 to one is showing this value for me. The steel of the draft cast Nikolai Huygar 70 to one to be a first round leader I really like and came David said 70 to one for first round leader as well another golfer who can go out and shoot and minus eight. And that's also to get that first round leader secured. As I said I'll probably have one or two more just because of the length of those numbers. I'll probably have another couple of long shots I haven't quite narrowed in on but I'm checking the wind daily discord for the full set of selections. There you have it. How about you spent who are you targeting the person on the market. I only have two plays right now as David said you can check out inside of wind daily I'll add anything else that I have there but Huygar at 70 to one Doug Kim at 80 to one those are the only two right now. I love it. I want to give two home run plays and two plays I like toward the top of the leaderboard. I'm swinging for the fences here at 90 to one with is it 90 or 80 to one and hold me double check my numbers. It's 80 to one. I'm looking for the fences here at 80 to one with Daniel burger. I'm also going to give you Rio at 90 to one, but my big home run it is going to be Joel dominant and 120 to one. Up top. I like I want to get some exposure to at 50 to one Maverick Mick Neely. I'm also aligned with the Keith Mitchell call both landing at 50 to one. That is a wrap this week. Good luck at the rocking mortgage always a fun tournament for bed and purposes and for DFS. We are looking forward to crowning a champion next week and doing it all over again. I like your first round leader card Joel. I'll say that I think that's an intriguing price like Mick Neely's going out in the afternoon, but I think 50 to one is very interesting. The afternoon might be the way to play it this week. It looks like there's a little bit of wind in the morning on Thursday and it's the kind of golf course where you are just going to have to go out and shoot super low. So, yeah, I don't necessarily have a lean weather wise in terms of first round leaders. It's almost always morning, but I think that's a really interesting point that you made sense. I think the afternoon might actually be even better than this this week. Yeah, and it's funny David because I feel like a lot of the names that people would want to bet and the ones that are gaining the sharp action are actually the ones going out in the afternoon and they're not seeing the same drift that we've gotten in the outright market like whether that's an air and rye or a Maverick McDilly. These are names that have been pushed completely down the board in a lot of these spots but they're drifting up in the first round leader market right now. That is the type of edge and weather update information you get in the window. That's why you sign up. We will be updated the weather information tomorrow so you have the most updated accurate information to get your last minute bets and DFS line ups in. The only thing I think I forgot was sports. Good luck.
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Rocket Mortgage Classic!
