Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money.
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 7/30/24
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I'm just trying to make your little money. My job is not just to entertain but to explain crazy days like today. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC Tweet Me Jim Kramer. Now look, this market's become real simple. Stocks that benefit from rate cuts get bought. Stocks that don't benefit get sold. So if today were the Dow gained 203 points, a lot of rate cut beneficiaries in that index, all they have to be lost 0.5% and then as they tumble 1.2% not a lot of beneficiaries there, we need to think about who wins and who doesn't once the Fed starts cutting at your phrase. Something that likely won't happen tomorrow when Fed Chief J. Pell speaks, but might as come as early as September. Fortunately for many of you, there are a lot of rate cut winners out there. yesterday for example we sold McDonald's rally on dramatically weaker numbers. Huh? Well things have gotten so weak that people are avoiding fast food until the prices come down. Hence why McDonald's rolled out, it's a new $5 meal, very sport. But this market doesn't care that it's doing badly, it just treats the golden arches as a rate cut winner. Because the company's got some economic sensitivity, certainly more than we ever thought. Now today's turn is Stanley, Black and Decker. The toolmaker has been working to cut costs and today delivered a good enough number that investors can imagine how profitable be once rates come down. Investors are dreaming, I like the dream, it's called leverage. Stanley, Black and Decker's levered the housing turnover. So it's levered to lower rates because when the Fed starts cutting you'll see more existing home sales and more remodeling. It's why we have a nice size position in it for my child with trust, which you can follow along by joining the CMC Investing Club. Hey, the banks work too. They need to start making loans again and they need economic activity instead of obsessing about how much they make by sitting on your deposits. Hey, thanks to Betsy Grayson, she'll always present Morgan Stanley back in us, who pushed the banks hard today, made a big splash, got them all moving. She recognized that this is the point in the business cycle where banks can really shine. Plus they buy back a ton of stock. You know what, we're going to be talking to one of these very banks, one of my favorites, Huntington Bank shares out of Columbus, Ohio if you stay tuned. The stock's already up 90% for the year. That's part of the great broadening that I keep talking about. We're seeing the aerospace stock source. Stocks like RTX, which makes jet engines and services them. Or how about stocks like How I Met Your Mother? Our quaint nickname for How Met Aerospace, which makes we're really funny, which makes fasteners or screws for the aerospace industry. Both RTX and How Met are screaming higher because as the team from How Met mentioned their conference call, aerospace is indeed cyclical. The industry benefits from lower rates because the businesses buying airplanes that often do it with borrowed money. So rate cuts are Nevada for them. They help travelers too, so there will be a lot of demand for planes from airlines. Same kind of thinking is going on for the rest of the industrials, which is why that group is just doing terrifically. Hey, you know what? Oh, that's all fabulous, right? Unfortunately, this target market though is not built on rate cut winners. For years now, it's been rallying on the strength of precisely the companies that don't need to borrow money, that don't need rate cuts. Companies that therefore won't see much of a boost when we get rate cuts. Companies like Tech stocks. Yes, Tech stocks. They're just very strong businesses with suddenly very bad stocks, at least for now. At the risk of stating the obvious, what we loved about the Magnificent Seven, but Amazon Apple, Meta, Microsoft, which reported tonight, Nvidia and Tesla, what we love was that rates didn't matter to them. They had such strong businesses. That's how they could go up for most of the last years. They're the ultimate secular growers, which is why they didn't get dinged that badly by the Fed rate cuts. But the flip side of that is that they won't really benefit as rates come down. The Magnificent Seven, the companies will be doing just fine regardless of where the Fed takes interest rates, but their stocks are very different story. The answer is there's stocks are and will be losers, and they'll probably keep losing until their shares come down enough to look cheap versus the rate cut winners that are rallying now as part of the great broadening. Now that could be some distance from here, which is why one of the reasons that when you see a weak number from any tech company, like tonight with Microsoft, sellers just come out of the woodwork and they just ask the darn thing. I mean, it's just incredible. People don't even know how it's doing and they just sell it. Protect the watch word is three words that my staff loves to be able to say. And those three words are get out now, which is a fabled reference to something that I did when if you have reconfessions of a street addict, I should have bought all those companies in crunching, except for I wrote it. Consider the case of NVIDIA, which is doing amazing things with generative artificial intelligence, generative AI, and accelerated computing. Those are the two biggest trends of our day. Those are basically their own cycles with their own rules. And they had nothing to do with the Fed. That's something we love them for. Not anymore. That's how NVIDIA stock has become a wasteland. I mean, you know, it's been interstitial gunfire. I mean, every day, I mean, like, thank heavens that the market stops. Sometimes, thank heavens, they ring a bell because then it can stop going down. Okay, sure. It's still up 110% for the year, but it's now down more than 35 points from its high. 140 to 104. I don't see it stopping here. That's not because NVIDIA's businesses deteriorate. It's possibly selling amazingly well. It's competitor AMD on tomorrow. It's working the streets saying good things. It's because NVIDIA doesn't benefit from rate cuts. So, it's stock gets kicked through the curb in this environment. The money you get back from selling the company shares that are being redeployed to the rate cut beneficiaries. No one sells to NVIDIA. It's about the stock not the company. So, why not get rid of the stock? Because NVIDIA stock is getting cheaper as it goes down. Right now, the street expects them to earn $3.59 per share next year. But if this is anything like the NVIDIA we've seen in the last decade, those estimates are probably way too low. Maybe solo at the company could eventually earn $4.59 per share next year. In that case, you've got a stock that can see it be selling at less than 23 times next year's earnings. I am not selling the greatest gross stock of our generation at 20-feet times earnings. I'd rather risk taking some pain and maybe then. Keep in mind, NVIDIA is the premier gross stock of our time. I'm going to say it again. I'm not going down just because skeptics feel there's no good return on an investment AI. It's going down because Wall Street's become a lot less willing to pay up for the earnings of gross stocks. It's called multiple contraction. Right now, investors would rather chase cheaper stocks of companies that will get a massive earnings boost from lower interest rates. Thanks, Stanley, Bakken-Dacker. Wall Street, in certain junctures, falls out of love with great gross stocks, abandoning them for cyclo stocks that will do much better in the selling economy. The year-over-year comparisons are just much better with these rate cut beneficiaries than they will be with the MAG7. The market runs on these companies, but at some point, a stock like NVIDIA gets so cheap, so darn cheap, on an earnings basis. Can you believe it? That the selling will stop. We just haven't reached that level yet. I don't mean to be picking on NVIDIA. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple have all been experiencing multiple contraction. Meanwhile, stocks like Stanley, Bakken-Dacker, all over the banks are experiencing multiple expansion. Glorious. Now, we hear that many spoiler-capped stocks are winning here. It's a big text. Donates share to them. Donations are a very tricky word, though. What's really happy is that big institutions aren't doing anything different than they usually do. They always sell the stocks that don't need the Fed to make the estimates and buy the stocks that will put up huge year-over-year earnings growth with the help of rate cuts. Of course, there are stocks that are basically bits and bops. Parker and Gaille and Merck missed the numbers today. I get into what I go on for China. There are stocks that actually go on higher. I'll go over China losers later in the show. Eli Lilly keeps going down because it's been up a lot. Suddenly, it has GOP-1 competition, but it's also suffering from the same multiple contraction as the big news in seven. We don't know when that will stop either. It's a quality company, real bad stock. It's so easy to just dump all the great gross stocks that have done so well when you have cycles based on cell phone refresh or PC refresh or AI or accelerated computing. You sell them and you will feel so instantly relieved. You'll be like, "Oh, a steamer trunk removed from my back." Never forget, though, that you're selling winners. Actual bonafidey winners for stocks that were losers just two weeks ago. Selling winners for losers is indeed a longer term, a mug scheme. Unless you think this rotation has immense multi-year staying power or you're a hedge fund with the ability to flip it in and out all day, all night. For the child of trust, we've trimmed many of the amazing winners of this year to buy other two losers, like Stanley Bock and Decker. We could bask in the wind if only because we can't because we still own so much the menu of seven. But like politicians, we must ask ourselves, "Are you better off now with the sickles than you were with the secular growers?" The answer, here's the bottom line. You're not better off if you only own the sickles by waiting for the rate cut cavalry that never came and still hasn't come. But unless you think that Nvidia's general custer, you should come out ahead. When we fully discount the rate cuts that are ahead, even though there could be plenty more pain, then we have so far had with a great broadening as it unfolds. Let's go to Wayne in California, Wayne. Wayne, you are the man. Thank you for helping so many families across this amazing country. Wayne, thank you. You don't feel like you're helping people when you see Microsoft Drop or Nvidia Drop. So when I speak to Wayne in California, something to think, maybe I'm not a total dope. How can I help? Well, I need your help. Uber earnings are August 6. I have Uber drop so much in the last two weeks. And what do you think is going to happen in Q2? Okay, Uber is trading as a function of a multiple contractions. So in other words, what's really going on here is people are just willing to pay less for the losses that Uber might have. And when that occurs, what you have to do is just kind of hold your nose and hold it if you think it's going to be a great growth down the road. And that's what I think is going to be a great growth stock down the road. Take a look at the way Airbnb managed to get through a couple of declines. That's what I think can happen with Uber. You need to stick with it. But it's nothing to do with the business. It has to do with the stock. Let's go to Georgie in Pennsylvania, Georgie. Hi, Jim. I've been a member of your club since its exception. And I cannot thank you enough for the education. Thank you. You're trying so hard. Jeff and I are trying so hard. Zeb would now have great stuff. And I really appreciate it because now we know why we do it. We do it because of you, not because we just know so I think we're like really great. We're just trying to help. So thank you. How can I help you? Well, you are. It's not only education. You are growing my investments. And that's what it's called. You know, I should have retired years ago if I felt that I didn't have anything to contribute. I had a lot of things I wanted to do in my life, but I like this club. But it makes me feel good because of people like you, Georgie. Okay? Thank you. A lot of other things in my life at this point. And I just like helping people. No sentences. Thank you for what you do. Thank you. I have an important question to ask you, Jim. When I retired, I started three custodial accounts for my three grandchildren who are now 16, 15 and 13. And with the intent that when they graduate from college, they'll have a nest egg. And I transferred all the years I worked, I held on to Disney. So my cost basis for Disney was $31.31. I transferred a hundred shares into each of their accounts, however, as you know, the day it transferred, it reflected differently. And they are reviewing their accounts with me, which I love. Right. But here's the thing. I know hopefulness is not a strategy. I want to believe in Disney, but I'm perplexed on whether to let that lie in there or cash it in for what will look like a loss, so they won't have to pay taxes. Right. So that invested in something else. Okay. So, Georgie, here's the way I have to think too about this. We care about the fundamentals. We don't care about taxes. You just need to know. Disney traded all the way up to 120 when Nelson Peltz got involved. I think it can get there ultimately, but I wish Peltz had gotten in. By the way, I was totally right and so was Nelson. So I'm really tired of hearing about the bellyache and from the company. The company screwed up. It's got to do better. If it doesn't do better, it's going to be on the firing line. And there's nothing wrong with that. If we were talking about the Eagles and they dropped five games at the end, you think I'd be happy? And my trust owns some Disney, but it doesn't own any of the Eagles. Don't get swept up in Fed rate cut rumors. I think it's this rotation continues. You got to stay focused. Remember which stocks are proving winners in this market. And don't give up on all of them. You can give up on some or take some profits, but not all of them, please. Oh, man, I'm going to try it. The IPO market is showing signs of life. But last week we got one of the players in the occupational health space. And we went to take a close look. I kind of interesting. It's called Clincentra. Then Copper has spent the last two months melting down, even though people thought this would be a super cycle. What does the commodities price actually mean for stocks? I'm going off the charts, find out. And just ahead of tomorrow's Fed decision, I'm hearing what Huntington Banks here has to say about a timeline for potential rate cuts when they sit down with the CEO. Thank you so much to the Court for saying such good things. It was a very trying day. And stay with Crapi. Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow @JimCramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer. #MadMensions. Send Jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. Miss something, head to madmoney.cnbc.com At EverNorth Health Services, we believe costs shouldn't get in the way of life-changing care. And we're doing everything in our power to make it possible. Behavioral health solutions that also keep your projections at their best. It's possible. Pharmacy benefits that benefit your bottom line. It's possible. Complex specialty care that cares about your ROI. It's possible. Because we're already doing it. All while saving businesses billions. That's wonder made possible. Learn more at EverNorth.com/wonder. When you're hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search. Match. With Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors, according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging to connect with candidates faster. 93% of employers agree. Indeed delivers the highest quality matches compared to other job sites, according to a recent Indeed survey. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day. Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed. Listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com/MadMoney. Just go to Indeed.com/MadMoney right now, and support this show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com/MadMoney. Terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. Breaking news. The Peanut Butter Group and Chocolatey Corp have merged to create PBC Inc. And the byproduct of the merger is the new delicious Jiff Peanut Butter and chocolate flavored spread. I got the press release and get this. Critics tried to say it creates a monopoly on cravability. But obviously, it's not illegal to be irresistible. Calling it now, this will revolutionize the snack industry and the contents of my pantry. Visit pbcincorporated.com to try the flavor merger of the century, Jiff PB&C. Last week was a huge one for IPOs. Like I told you last night when I covered lineage ink, but there were three other big ones, including at least one that might be worth owning. I'm talking about a company called Consentra. Now, that is the largest provider of occupational health services in America, which was just spun off by its former parent company Select Medical Holdings and began trading independently last Thursday. Now, this one caught my eye because right now we've got a quiet bull market in health care providers. Just last week, major hospital operators like HCA, tenant, and Universal Health all reported amazing numbers. I wouldn't be surprised if Consentra is doing just as well. I also like this one's a spin on it. Wall Street loves it when big companies break off to smaller, easier to understand businesses as their own entities. Think of, think you even over it. So let me walk you through this one. Consentra has 547 standalone occupational health centers across 41 states with 151 on-site clinics at employer work sites and a telemedicine program. The best majority of their business comes from those occupational health centers, though. What is an occupational health center? They handle workers' compensation and provide physical rehabilitation. They do drug and alcohol testing for employers, along with physical exams and preventative care. They also do some consumer health services. These places can provide urgent care treatment for injuries and illnesses. Still, nearly two-thirds of their visit related revenue came from workers' comp last year. Reliable business, for the most part, Consentra's customers are employers. Not the actual patients they serve. I like that, too. This company partners with every single member of the Fortune 100. Can you imagine that? 95% of the Fortune 500, and whoever heard of these guys. But what it's worth, Consentra seems to be pretty good at what they do, which is getting injured or sick people back to work as quickly and inexpensively as possible. From a study of a half a million workers' compensation claims, Consentra had 25% lower average claims costs, 61 fewer days per claim compared to the average competitor, but I don't know how they pull this one off, but I am sure their customers, the employers, appreciate the savings. Even if the workers they're treating might feel differently, I don't know. Basically, this is a niche health care provider for employee health, something that's extra important given that we've got to persist in labor shortage in this country. At the same time, we've got an aging workforce that's more likely to get sick. I like their demo. Now, if you wake the occupational health space, then you have to like Consentra, because it's the largest player in the industry, with the best results. They plan to keep taking market share while expanding into adjacent areas like workplace safety and specialty health care. Now, I certainly like that Consentra stock hasn't run away from us yet. The bankers marketed this IPO with a price range of $23 to $26, but the deal only priced at $23.50 in the low end, then the stock actually traded below that level. On Thursday, it's now $22 and change. No hype for this thing whatsoever. In large part because I think its former parent company still owns a huge slug of stock that they plan to distribute to their own shareholders, many of whom may choose to sell, which is kind of like a, you know, let's just say, a big impediment to getting really excited about a stock. Still, I think that this will create a buying opportunity in a company with great fundamentals. When you look at the numbers, the sector's got a lot going on for it. Even though it's been putting up low to mid-single-digit revenue growth, its profitability has been just terrific. The only issue here relates to Consentra's spindle from Select Medical. With last week's IPO, Select Medical was selling new shares in Consentra, representing an 18-20% ownership stake, so they didn't sell their own existing position. Select Medical still owns around 80% of the business, but like I told you, they plan to distribute these shares to their investors at some unspecified point in the future. Judging by how these spinners usually go, it'll likely happen in a few months. But we don't know. Last week's IPO raised roughly $520 million, but every penny of that went to paying back some intercompany debt that Consentra owed to Select Medical. At the same time, they took on $1.5 billion in new debt of their own, not the cleanest balance sheet, but the leverage ratio is $3.9, which is not particularly onerous for a reliable healthcare company. So should you be stepping in to buy shares at Consentra after it's somewhat tepid debut? Let's start with this. I like the fundamental story, no denying it. The occupational health space is in tree. I'm going to still very tight labor market. I think that services Consentra offers will be in high demand. Remember, the customers are the employers, and employees are eager to keep their workforce healthy and ready to, I mean, of course, want to keep everybody healthy, right? They've got to get them ready to work. At the same time, I suspect that this occupational health space faces less regulatory risk than the overall healthcare industry, like the classic hospital stocks. No, it doesn't hurt that Consentra is the best in class at what it does. But when it comes to what you should be willing to pay for the stock, I think you should wait a bit with this thing at $22 and change. Let me do some back of the envelope, Matt, you know where I'm coming from. I think Consentra could easily earn $1.05 per share this year. I mean, it currently trades at around 22 times this year's earnings estimates. It feels a bit high to me, given the slower growth. I don't know of any direct comparisons in the occupational health space, but the three big hospitals that reported this week, well, they sell from 14 to 16.4 times this year's estimates. Okay, this year's numbers, we should say. You know, think about that. That's dramatically cheaper. Select medical, which is Consentra soon to be former parent, trades at 18.6 times this year's numbers. Even if you assume Consentra deserves the same multiple select med, then you'd be talking about a $19.50 stock. I like that level down a little more than $3 for your potential entry point. And I think you'll be able to get that price as long as you're patient. Remember, select medical still owns 80% of Consentra, and they plan to hand those shares over to their investors at some point, like before the end of the year. When that happens, you better believe some select medical shareholders will just dump their Consentra stock. S-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s-s. Something that could push this thing down quite a bit, but that would be your buying-by-by buying opportunity. So, intriguing story, bottom line, now that select medical has spun off to talk to the business's Consentra, I think this one's worth putting on your shopping list. Just hold off on the actual buying because of the stock until select medical distributes its remaining stake in the business to its shareholders. At that point, I bet the stock falls below $20, and that's where you can do some buying. They have money, it's back after the break. Coming up, is Dr. Copper predicting a summer swoon for the market? Kramer's going off the charts for a checkup. Next. At EverNorth Health Services, we believe costs shouldn't get in the way of life-changing care, and we're doing everything in our power to make it possible. Behavioral health solutions that also keep your projections at their best, it's possible. Pharmacy benefits that benefit your bottom line, it's possible. Complex specialty care that cares about your ROI. It's possible, because we're already doing it. All while saving businesses billions, that's wonder made possible. Learn more at EverNorth.com/wonder. Walmart Plus members save on meeting up with friends. Save on having them over for dinner with free delivery with no hidden fees or markups. That's groceries plus napkins plus that vegetable chopper to make things a bit easier. Plus, members save on gas to go meet them in their neck of the woods. Plus, when you're ready for the ultimate sign of friendship, start a show together with your included Paramount Plus subscription. Walmart Plus members save on this plus so much more. Start a 30-day free trial at walmartplus.com. Paramount Plus is central plan only, separate registration required, see Walmart Plus terms and conditions. We need to talk about copper. For the past two months, copper's been melting down. It peaked right around the time when we were hearing about a copper super cycle. And that matters because industrial metals are pretty consistent gauge of how the global economy is doing. We were right on the verge of a big fed meeting. So you need copper for construction and economic construction is the economy that's not doing one. That's why tonight we're going off the charts with the help of Carly Garner, a terrific technician, who's the co-founder of the Carly Trading, the author of higher probability commodity trading. She's a resident commodity expert. We've got to figure out, we've got to get a better read on copper and what it may mean for both the stock and mom markets. Keep in mind, Garner's pretty cautious on stocks right now. She highlighted the sell off in copper to us back in early June and explained that at top in copper prices, wealth can lead to a top in stock prices. I'll be with a certain amount of lag and it's not a medium. Back then, Garner viewed copper's reversal from its all time high as a sign of economic dysfunction because Dr. Copper is the textbook bellwether for economic growth. On the other hand, declining copper prices also single deflation, which Garner views as a bad thing, although it's not bad for bonds. But given that we're waiting for the Fed to beat inflation and cut in trades, I see this a good thing. As long as it's temporary. Six months of deflation would be fabulous. It's a year or two of deflation would be disasters because at that point it takes on a life of its own. Now, while copper's historically been a good predictor of where the stock market may be headed, Garner pointed out that it usually takes two to six months before stocks follow suit. And the two months since copper peaked, it's fallen from $5 and changed, it's just over $4. And she could see it sink all the way to $3.80 before it finds a fort. Yet even after that decline, yes, we've got a hundred still up about a hundred points from where it was trading when copper peaked, so something's wrong. Garner, this is a serious problem. History says the impact that we could copper prices will start showing up in the stock market within the next four months. After daylight today, you start thinking it's just showing up now. It should make you more reluctant to buy the dips. Notice no one came in today. In her view, the lower copper falls, the more dangerous the stock market becomes. So either stocks need to sell off in order to catch up with the inflationary trend in copper prices, or copper needs to rebound to make up the difference. She's betting that the former scenario is more likely than the latter. Why? For starters, Garner believes the meltdown in copper is far from over, and it could have a lot more downside. So why don't you take a look at the weekly chart of the copper futures with data from the CFTC's Commitment of Traders report down at the bottom. Remember, we love this data because it shows you how all the major players are positioned. They measure the net long or short positions of small speculators, many home gamers, large speculators, and money managers, and commercial hedgers, many actual companies that use copper and trade the futures as part of their business. Given the impact of bin social money managers on the market, Garner mostly cares about what the large speculators are doing, okay? That's the green line. When you look at the data, these large speculators still have a pretty prominent net long position. Okay, this tells you that it's long. Perhaps because they saw the steady use of copper in both the data center, build out, and more importantly, electric cars, are real copper hogs. Historically speaking, these money managers are quite bullish on copper, even as the price comes down. To Garner, this looks like an extremely crowded trade, too many people leading one way, and she's betting the bulls will have to keep liquidating on her way down, something that could push the price of copper well below $4, and far from its super cycle status. But perspective, according to the Commitment of Traders report, large speculators held a net long position of roughly 72,000 contracts due to the top of the copper market, and that was two months ago. That position has since lightened to about 59,000 contracts. By contrast, when the most recent copper rally got rolling, the large speculators had a net long position of just 8,000 contracts. In short, there's a lot more room for downside here because there's too many people crowding in on this trade. Now, check out this chart of the seasonal pattern of copper prices. This shows you how copper tends to trade over the course of an average year. Garner knows that the red metal tends to find an annual low in late August or September, okay? In other words, she could see it bottom me in a month or two, at least temporarily. But before then, copper could be in for a series, beat it. When you look at the weekly chart of copper, Garner says it tells a straightforward story. There's a significant score of support at four bucks, okay? So you got to take a look and say, "All right, we'll look." It's already cut through here, similar for right here. But that floor likely won't hold, she says. She's betting it will see copper $3.80 before it finally exhausts itself, so it should go right here to there. And your biggest worry is that it's going to crash through here, right? So you see, not only is $4 a key psychological support level, but it's also the 200-week moving average, okay? And for two years prior to the most recent rally, that level function, as a ceiling, keep me a little on copper, so you can see that copper wasn't able to break through that for a long time. Now that we're headed back down, that previous ceiling of resistance has become, as we know, a floor of support. That's how it works. However, Garner respects that there are a lot of traders who quote on the wrong side of the seller. That's what we saw in the equipment and traders report. So if she sees it, any reprieve in selling will simply bring out more sellers who've been waiting for the opportunity to jump ship. This is a broken chart. At the same time, the relative strength index, an important momentum indicator, has been plunging, but it still hasn't reached over sold status, where you'd likely expect to bounce. That's why Garner believes copper won't stop falling until it hits the trend line at $3.80, okay? There's the trend line. We're going to come through this. It's going to stop right there. But she can't rule out of quick broke down to $3.50. So it might even go down there. And before a capitulation bottom gets really, really obvious. So really, we just think about this. Look at this. That is just horrible. Plus, don't forget the stock market tends to peak two to six months later for copper prices. We've now entered that time window. When copper topped out in May of 2021, the stock market peaked six months later, and we got a brutal sell off over the course of 2022. When copper bottom in July of 2022, the stock market found its lows about three months later. And look, this is not some one off pattern. It's one of the most reliable patterns in the business, which is why everyone says that copper's a bellwether. If history beats itself, Garner says that bulls should patiently wait for a better entry point before they start buying stocks aggressively. I thought this was good on a daily today where the NASDAQ's falling apart. On top of that, she thinks that you might want to wait for a bottom in copper before you get too bullish in the first place. How about the daily chart? When Garner looks at this action, she sees more evidence that the $4 area is acting as a potential pivot. Now, you can really see what we're talking about. But given that copper's already falling through this 200-day moving average at $4.15, she again thinks there should be more downside, even though the relative strength index has reached oversold territory in the daily chart. In her view, there are simply too many bullish copper traders who need to unwind their positions. You can see this is where it looks like a big fake out, but you can see what's coming here. Here's the bottom one. The charts are delivered by Carly Garner. She suggested copper's got more downside. And sometime in the next four months, that should start leading through the stock market. I think it's something worth watching, but I wouldn't write off the entire market off this. It's just that we'd have a different set of winners and losers than we currently are experiencing at the very moment. Let's go to Steve in New Jersey, Steve. Hey, Jim, how are you doing? I am doing OK, Steve. How about you? Oh, I'll hang it in there. I'd like to start by thanking you for all the instructional educators and great investment advice I got from you over the years. Thank you, Steve. I have to tell you, it's been a tough couple of days. I come in every day and speak to Jeff Marks, who's my partner with the Travel Trust. And I say, "Damn, how do we--" excuse me, "Darn, how do we screw up on this? How do we just screw up on that?" And when I hear you, it gives me faith that I ought to be taking a little more solace about the things we do get right. How can I help you? Good. Well, I purchased Boise Cascade after speaking to you when the stock is at 55. I bought it after a strong supply opinion from you. And then I saw the third at a nice profit, and right after that, it soared, followed by a big drop to 117. And I call to see if you would buy it there, but I didn't hear back from you until this morning. In the interim, it's shot right up again. I think it's over 140 now. Yes, it is. Well, I'll tell you, I think that it would be a good level to-- let's do this. I mean, we may be in a kind of a nasty period right here, but this is a kind of stock that does well in this environment. I would take a little off the table because it sells it around 14 times earnings. And this is a heavily cyclical stock, but I wouldn't do more than that, and then I let the rest run. Because if the Fed starts cutting, you're going to continue to see upward pressure, as we would say, on the stock of Boise Cascade. And I'm very glad I made you money in this one. This is a company that my father used to work for. I always respected it, but I could not believe how much it's made a comeback in a different guy. Thank you so much for your kind comments. At the chart, a script by Karlie Garner, she just said, "Copper's got a word down side." And she thinks it can bleed into the stock market. Like I said, I'm not so sure, but I'm trying to show you contrary views to mine. This can give us a very different set of winners and losers. I don't want you to write off the market entirely because of copper. I just want you to process it in your head if it is a variable. Much more made money, including my students with Huntington bag-shirts. This bank stock's been incredibly hot. With this July rotation favoring the regional banks, I'm seeing where Huntington fits in with the CEO. Hey, then there is one huge aspect of this market that's hurting stocks, and I'll reveal what it is, and how you can invest around it. And of course, all your calls, rapid card, tonight's edition of the Lightning Round. So stay with me. In the last few weeks, as part of the great broadening of the bull market, we've seen some monster runs in the regional banks, everything from the worst of the bunch to actually the best of bream. K Huntington bag-shirts based out of Columbus, Ohio, one of the best operators in the business. Here's the stock that's up almost 15% over the course of July, in part thanks to the rotation, but also because they reported a great quarter just two weeks ago. At this point, the stock's flirting with its 52-week high, so is the time they're reading the register, or maybe it's got a lot more catch-up than the darn thing yields 4%. It's got a real good franchise, let's check in with Steve Steinauer. Here's the chairman presidency of Huntington bag-shirts to get a better sense of where it's headed. Mr. Steinauer, welcome back to Mad Money. Thanks to me with you, Dr. Kramer. Oh, a lot of boys prefer that appellation to others. Steve, I'm going to bounce the thesis off you. For the longest time, what we care about is this net interest income, and it's kind of written that it's just more just going to bottom me. I like banks that lend, I like banks that grow. Do you think as we're on the verge of a rate cut cycle, we can start valuing banks again for what they really do, which is be good lenders? I do, and I do think we're on the verge of a rate cycle, and banks have largely come through their RWA diets that many went on last year. Capital's in good position, credit's performing well. The banking system can be part of the next phase of economic growth. No, I have. And we will at Huntington. Well, I do want to point out that you came on our show multiple times and assured us that you were going to come out unscathed. You did much better than that. So I'm wondering whether you're not the franchise for one of the great growth areas of this country, the go-to franchise? Well, we are incredibly well positioned in the Midwest, and in addition, we've recently expanded into Carolinas and a bit into Texas. So we have this unique franchise with a lot of growth potential. Columbus itself, our headquarters city, is doing phenomenally well. We've been growing deposits every quarter. We've grown loans, and we're in a great position to continue to grow, and frankly, to help the economy and our customers. Now, there have been a lot of banks that have been criticized because they have too much commercial real estate exposure, especially the office, particularly with people working from home. Unit didn't get caught up in that. How did you avoid that, Maras? Well, we put limits in place. We've been very disciplined, including who we chose to do business with, and very fortunate. We've got great customers, and they've taken care of us and their projects throughout these last couple of years in particular. So we have about 9% of commercial real estate loans to total. Our peers have about 15%, and we have around 1.5% of our loans are in office, so it's a very small percent, and it has a very high reserve against it, so we're in great shape. Now, one of the things that I really appreciate you doing, why, like you come on so much, is I'm a huge believer in small business, started many believe countries run on small business. Small business is the backbone of the U.S. economy. You have been a true champion of small business. How is that working for you at this point in the cycle? It continues to be gangbusters for us. We do a lot of SBA lending in our footprint and elsewhere. The number one SBA lender in Texas, as an example, and we don't have branches in Texas. So we have a lot of business generated, helping smaller businesses. Some cases get started or get to the next stage. We find that to be a very, very profitable business and well run. Now, how about these towns that, you know, in the presidential election, I think you're going to hear a lot about towns that have been left behind? Towns where they lost their manufacturing base. Are you seeing any comeback personally? Because you're in the heart of it, where businesses are reopening that are larger, or is it the small business taking their place and we should just wait for them to become bigger businesses, and it's really a pretty good story. Look, I think there's a partnership between business and government entities that can help spur economic development. If you look at Youngstown, a city that was really hard hit over the last couple of decades, it's coming back with one of the best business incubators in the country, and it has a variety of other businesses. And we're financing a lot of that. We have number one share in Youngstown. Toledo would be another example. The downtown section of Toledo has been revitalized substantially. The riverfront substantially revitalized. And again, we've been a big part of that. So we have a role to play. Other banks do too. And if you get the right public-private collaboration, right things can happen as they have here in Columbus and Detroit. Now, you have a tremendous and loyal group of people. I know in the Nashville market, a lot of banks have come in from out of state and are starting to take deposits, offering the equivalent of gifts to get people to switch. Are you having any problem with outliers coming into your area and trying to take your deposits? Well, we've been around for 160 years. So we have multi-generational relationships with a lot of customers. We're probably feeling a little bit of pressure on the margin, but we're also growing. We're investing. We're putting new products in place. And our customer satisfaction is award-winning. We're a perennial JD Power Award winner for the consumer and a credit award for the commercial customers. So we have a lot to offer, and we do it with our engaged colleagues that try to do the right thing and provide great service every day. Is it your goal to become a national banker? I mean, you've been able to acquire because you've got a good balance sheet and the regulators like you. Is it just possible you can pick off different areas? Or is that just too much to try to get your arms around? At the moment, and for the foreseeable future, we're very focused on organic growth. We've been investing significantly. One of the banks that took a different turn, there were only a couple of us after the Silicon Valley debacle a little over a year ago. We've been investing, growing the bank. We opened the Carolinas. We opened Texas. We have five new specialty banking areas, and all that's in addition to the core, which we're also investing in. So we have a lot of opportunity in front of us just growing the core. Well, to me it sounds-- And the second quarter results were-- No, they were terrific. Me, it sounds like I know a lot of people move in the regional banks. Maybe they, money should be going in the regional banks. You have much better growth than the big guys. With much less risk, Steve. And I think that's what really matters to me. Yes. Absolutely. Well, our risk management-- There you go. Yours is very good. And it surprised people during the downturn, which was not a downturn for you. I want to thank Steve Steinauer, who is the chairman, president, and CEO of Huntington Bank. Steve, it's just a breath of fresh air every time you're on. Thank you so much. Thank you, Jeff. Yeah, money's back there. Coming up, pop open those umbrellas and tee up your toughest questions. Kramer takes on all comers in the lightning round. Next. It is time to talk to the lightning round. That's right, that's right. I'm going to say it's about five, five, so I'll just put it in there. No, the core stock, quite a mistake for you to play this out. [buzzer] And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready, Steve? Dad, cover the lightning round, Kramer, but let's start with Jorge in California. Jorge. This is Jorge V-O-R-R. On drilling name, I always go with the best and the best is SLB. Let's go to Douglas in California, Douglas. Booja, Jim. I bought this stock at 90. Do I have a winner in Blackstone, Inc, ticker, B-F? Oh, you absolutely do. I want to go to this one for the long-term because they have a lot of great companies in-house. They're going to do very well. I like Blackstone. They went up after that. I was a bad quarter. That was a mistake. It was a good stock. Let's go to Tyler in California. Tyler. Hey, Vic, what do you have from California? How are you doing, Jim? I'm doing well. How about you? I'm doing good. Thank you. Given the Dexcom's recent financial performance and market trends in the diabetes care sector, what is your outlook on its potential for growth over the next three to five years? I was mystified and surprised that that conference call, which was absolutely terrible. A chapel trust owns Abbott. It didn't go down on the horrible loss that they had in front of the jury on Friday. I think Abbott is a better play. Let's go to Charlie in New York, Charlie. Reverend Jim Bob. I've got Edward White Sciences, and it's killing me. What do I do? Well, you want to swap over to Boston Scientific BSX, which delivered an amazing quarter and is taking share and taking names. Let's go to Ben in Ohio. Ben. Hey, Jim, thanks for taking my call. Of course. What your consensus has loaded. Okay, Lowe's is the kind of stock that you should be buying right here right now ahead of the rate cut cycle, and I would pick some up tomorrow. Let's go to Darius in Virginia. Darius. Hey, Jim, no birds. My stock is Jobe Aviation. Yeah, your stock should not be Jobe. Jobe, just sell it. I mean, I'd rather have you go buy a, you know, go on draft teams and do a parlay. Let's go to Sandy in California, Sandy. Hi, Jim. Booyah. Booyah. Yeah. I'm actually, last time I met you at NVIDIA Conference, and since then, the AI sentiment has changed. It's officially in last week. I'm curious about your thoughts on Marvel, especially on the data industry. Okay, I mean, there's two different things. The Marvel, the stock is probably being hurt by Marvel and company. Matt Murphy is doing a terrific job. I actually would own the stock. And that lighting job is the conclusion of the lighting round. The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, is China the weak link to this earnings season? Kramer is doing a deep dive into the region. Next. If you own stock in a company that's expanded heavily into China, it's being killed right now. That's become a serious problem for the market, and I don't see it getting better anytime soon. We just don't seem to want to acknowledge the sea changer. We know that there are many pernicious forces working against the bulls right now. We have the great multiple contractions always bring down growth stocks right when a rate cut is about to occur. As I said at the top of the show, that's the moment when stocks of companies that don't particularly benefit from rate cuts suddenly go out of style. Think in video. We have companies that are missing their quarters badly as we discover that their clientele is more on the ropes than anyone we thought. Think retail away from TJX Costco and Walmart. And we have companies that make data centers so necessary for the artificial intelligence revolution or the companies that allow the electric grid to handle all this new power, hungry infrastructure. These are all for sale. But none are as dangerous as companies that rely on China for growth. Each day we find companies that have sprung a leak in China that we thought would have been plugged by now. We've discovered that the Chinese consumers trading down when it comes to the goods that Procter and Gamble makes. If Procter hadn't gone so all in China, I think it would have made the quarter. And its stock would have avoided today's nearly 5% selloff. This is a fantastic company. I think the stock would come back. We sold some Procter 166 for the child of trust. And although we definitely don't run a hedge fund, we'd like to get back and buy that stock. But it could be restricted for some time. Things get restricted whenever I mention the company on air. If Merck had run afoul of what looks to be the Chinese anti-corruption cops, I think shareholders would have been spared today's incredible 10% scurrying. Although I would probably still be -- it probably would be down still because of the rotation because it doesn't benefit from rate cuts. And I can tell you it didn't do anything wrong in China. So what's wrong with the companies that do business in the PRC? When you look at China, there's a lethal combination of a government that doesn't like America or American businesses and a populace that seem to be more cash-strapped than any time in the century, even if they like our country. That's how S.D. Lordr can completely implode, thanks to Chinese weakness, even a CEO Fabrizio Freda, one time the cosmetic Houdini can't seem to excavate his company from the PRC's clutches. You've seen yours that are anywhere near China? Yeah, about it. Nike, they're pricing themselves out of China. Starbucks? Their same store sales were down 14% in China, which is their second biggest market. horrendous decline, hopefully being made up by other areas around the globe. China is so darn complicated. At one time the government was so business friendly that Western companies thought it was insane not to go there, but their government took advantage of us on trade. And ever since the Trump administration, we've been fighting them in a trade war. As G. Ramondo, the Commerce Secretary, made clear on our show last Thursday, the relationship between our two countries are so strained that we have no choice except to protect Taiwan while we build our own semiconductor factories here, suddenly antagonizes the Chinese to no end. Maybe one day our companies will simply throw in the tower, take some big charges like Hainikin did yesterday, when it wrote down the stake it had in the Chinese brewery, taking a $949 million hit. Tough pill to swallow. Nevertheless, Hainikin owned up to this disaster that is China. And they're a Dutch company for everyone's sake. Their government's not involved in the new Cold War. Unfortunately, American companies just keep saying, oh, it'll get better. It'll get better. It'll get better. Where do they get that confidence? I have no idea. In fact, if you want more reason why the smaller capitalization stocks are doing well, it's because for the most part they have nothing to do with China. Therefore, they have nothing to apologize for and nothing to write off. Still, one more great reason why they can withstand the selling pressure while they await the rate cuts that will soon be upon us. I like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. I promise you I'll find it just for you right here at Mid Money. I'm Jim Kramer. See you tomorrow. All opinions expressed by Jim Kramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC, Universal, or their parent company or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC nor its affiliates and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit CNBC.com/MadMoneyDisclaimer. One more plus members save on meeting up with friends. Save on having them over for dinner with free delivery with no hidden fees or markups. That's groceries plus napkins plus that vegetable chopper to make things a bit easier. 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