Thunderstorms increasing.....
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DayWeather Podcast
8.21.2024
Welcome to Wednesday, the 21st day of August 2024. This day with a podcast brought to you by conversecountitourism.com. Beautiful landscapes, historic sites in unique downtown to wait visitors to Douglas and Glen Rock, playing your visit at conversecountitourism.com. Well, more thunder today. Subtropical moisture is resurging northward. Yesterday, there were thunderstorms, especially more skewed towards the southern areas of the Intermountain West. But we continue to see less smoke, better visibility. And you could see that cloud that was in the photograph right there from miles and miles away. You'll get that when you get these isolated thunderstorms popping up. But with deeper moisture, thunderstorms return today through Friday. Now, the thunderstorms won't be spread out evenly. There's kind of patches of dry air mixed with wet air. So, thunderstorms are going to be more concentrated in some areas, less numerous than others. The cooling trend, that trough of low pressure heading into the Pacific Northwest, is slowly, slowly creeping eastward through Sunday. So, it's going to take several days for that first trough of the late summer season to push around. But it is going to really cool things off from California to Washington, Oregon and to Boise and even into Las Vegas and Salt Lake City here over the next few days. So, it'll be coolest for you folks west of the divide. Now, east of the divide, you get your cool down. Mid to late next week, beginning Wednesday, but especially noticeable by Thursday and Friday. That is going to be a real taste of fall. Early fall, like weather, will be noted, especially east of the divide. We'll show you that here in a minute and it'll be something to watch as we get into the days ahead. What is happening with the pattern is the beginning of the end of the monsoon season. The North American monsoon, that moisture that's coming up out of the southwest United States, out of Mexico and the Gulf, it's about ready to end and we'll show you why. Great shot there of that moisture in the air, creating just some fabulous photo opportunities here over the last several weeks. There's one from Sweetwater County, Wyoming. I know I showed you that in the title there that it does kind of look like a platypus. You got to admit there. Beautiful mammatus clouds from Bozeman, Montana with some thunderstorms yesterday. That's a shot from the day before and that huge thunderstorm built up and you can see from Casper, beautiful shot there with the color on the clouds and another shot of the super blue moon that has been taking place. The satellite imagery this morning does show that deeper monsoonal moisture is coming up now. It's further north. We're also getting some increasing moisture coming in from the west, from that trough off the west coast but notice we have some little patches of orange coming on in where the air is drier. So what's going to happen is we're going to have islands of thunderstorms. This is the precipitable water by late afternoon. So from Arizona through the four corners region into Colorado and eastern Wyoming, central eastern Montana, the Dakota's, this is where your thunderstorms are going to be today. You're going to see this little pocket of dry air come into northern parts of Utah, western Wyoming, probably southwest Montana and eastern Idaho. So you're going to have less in the way of thunderstorm activity. So it's going to be under this ribbon of green and blue is where the thunderstorms are going to be, much slower humidities in that brown area. So there's your thunderstorm forecast for today. We're going to probably have a little bit of severe weather to deal with. So from eastern Montana, and what I think is probably going to case, I want to take this a little bit further back to the west, hopefully Devil's Tower doesn't get hit again, but I think maybe a little back for the west of the front range, the darker green line should be drawn. So this general area right here, we need to watch out for a few strong to possibly severe thunderstorms today. Tomorrow, deeper moisture in the blue is more centered in southern Wyoming, western slope of Colorado getting all the way back in the northwest Utah here, a little bit less in the way in Montana, but you're still going to be in the darker green and the white and blue areas have afternoon and evening storms, and there they're going to be tomorrow in the late afternoon and evening hours. So for today, for Thursday, and then there's Friday, that deeper moisture is in place again. So Friday, there you go. Showers and thunderstorms are going to be around, but you see this drier air right here and can't see it, but there's a big pocket of drier air back up here. Those are going to start to come into play over the weekend, leading to a decrease in shower and thunderstorm coverage, at least from that monsoonal moisture flow. By Saturday morning, the high now is shifting east. This will bring heat back to the corn belt and the eastern part of the U.S. This part of the U.S. and parts of southern Canada in this area right here, especially the corn belt, the Midwest, the Great Lakes has just downright comfortable August temperatures, but there's going to be a temporary heating trend going there. There's this trough coming into the Pacific Northwest, and that's where the cool air is going to be. So this is by Saturday by Monday. We talked about the battle between this low and this high, so they both end up weakening. They both end up, has a toll taken on both as this trough comes in, but there will be a cool front advancing, pushing in the cooler air across the inner mountain west while the high gets squeezed and brings heat back up into the middle part of the United States. This is the temperature anomaly by Saturday, 6 p.m. mountain time. So well below average temperatures in this area right here, so very cool for August from Boise, even to Portland, even into San Francisco, even the Central Valley, California. You're going to cool off while the heat, look at the heat, along the east of the divide. So you're going to have the cool, then you're going to have the hot this weekend really separated by the continental divide. By Monday noon, the cold isn't as intense, but you can see the blue gets east of the divide. So the white means near seasonal averages, the blue below average, the heat more towards the central United States. So basically that takes us through Monday. By the middle and next week, another one of these waves comes, but this is a stronger cool front. The air behind it is coming more from the Northwest Territories. The air behind this one is going to be cooler. It's going to pour cooler air along the east of the divide like that. And so that's going to be the second half of next week. So we'll see temperatures rebat a little bit by Tuesday into Wednesday, but by late Wednesday into Thursday and Friday of next week, a big cool air mass, a large one, is going to spill east of the divide and into the lower 48 out of Northwest areas of Canada. This is also going to lead to the beginning to the end of the monsoon season. Now I'm going to back up a bit, we're going back to Monday. This first frontal system coming in from the Pacific Northwest brings in quite a bit of dry air in behind it. This dry air mass is the first one that's going to knock down the subtropical moisture flow. Think of these fronts as like a broom. And when they're large and strong enough as you get laid into the summer season, these drier air masses that come out of Western Canada can really basically take the top off the monsoonal moisture flow, just really knock it down. And because it takes a while for that moisture to return and for this moisture to come back, you have to have the summertime high in place that allows the flow of air to come back. So when you have these pushes of dry air coming in, like a broom, this is the first broom. So we're going to knock down that monsoonal moisture flow considerably by Sunday into Monday and Tuesday and next week. By Wednesday, there's the secondary push of colder air. Notice it's more skewed east of the divide. This is by 6 p.m. Wednesday, strong cold front boundary right here. By Thursday noon, this cold air spreads south and east. You can see the sharp boundary of the front. Now you're going to have a lot of shower and thunderstorm activity along this boundary, but the air is going to be a lot drier in that cooler Canadian air. This cool air mass will have to see, but it could end up being stronger than this and it's going to head east. It's going to cool off the Great Lakes. It'll cool off Quebec in Ontario, eventually into the North East United States. West of the divide, it starts to heat up again. Now the second broom, there it is, a really strong one. Look at the dry air. You can see the moisture swept up with that trough coming in, but notice down here now, it's not dark green and blue anymore. We even get a little patch of brown coming on in. So these two frontal systems, the beginning to the end of the North American monsoon season. And actually, that's kind of right on schedule. This is the time of year when it usually weakens considerably, but the next three days, we have more opportunities for that monsoonal moisture to produce showers and storms. Have yourself a good Wednesday. We'll see you tomorrow.