The 3rd Year WR Theory for #FantasyFootball owners proves to be a legitimate stat that requires attention. Who is this year's D-Hop, TO, and Cooper Kupp? Tony Cutillo dives into all the WRs ready to break out in their 3rd Year!
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Tony Cutillo has been covering and playing Fantasy Football for 25+ years. Not only is it his passion, it’s his job. This passion has allowed me to be featured on networks like VSIN, SiriusXM, NBC, CBS, and various nationwide radio stations. He uses his experience, unique logic, and unrivaled energy to help you win your league!
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(air whooshing) - Every team, every topic, everywhere. This is Belize. (upbeat music) - Ready to take the shotgun snap. Let's close the trigger, touchdown to Randy Moss. (upbeat music) - Michael Thomas, Razzie Wayne, Terrell Owens, to Chris Olave. The third year wide receiver theory is in full effect this year for a fancy football. Ton of goods to low back, but another episode of Spiking that pigskin powered as always, by Wayne Daley. And I continue to say it, only a few days left. Get that 50% off, use that cohort. Heat, H-E-A-T for everybody who signed up already. I greatly appreciate it. I love it and you're gonna appreciate it as well because you're gonna have more money in your pockets. The third year wide receiver theory. Does everybody know about it? If you don't know about it, you've kind of slept under a rock. So let me just tell you, it's when a lot of wide receivers finally come into their actual own. They've had good years prior, but this is that breakout sensational year where they put it all together. We're talking about names like you heard earlier, Michael Thomas. How about Tyree Kill? Chris Godwin, Cooper Cup, Mike Evans, DeAndre Hopkins, T.Y. Hilton, Kishan Johnson, Deebo Samuel Moore. Just some of the big name breakouts we've seen in the third wide receiver year. So you wanna make sure that you're getting the right guy. So my goal here is to give you a few guys to zone in on. Yes, they could already be studs, but they're gonna be the breakout third year wide receivers and maybe a possible sleeper as well. Let's bring it back to New Orleans and talk about Chris Olave. Now you know me, it's not always stat driven, but his stats speak for themselves. But I'm gonna give you a little insight on why I love this breakout candidate this year. Now I know everybody's gonna talk about Derek Carr. Everybody's gonna worry about Derek Carr. He's not the best. He's not, yeah, it doesn't matter, man. It's still Chris Olave, a guy who has literally gone up both of his years, okay? 119 targets to 138 targets, 72 to 87, 10, 42, 11, 23. Don't care about touchdowns 'cause I don't take touchdown equity into consideration. But you're talking about a brand new offensive coordinator. And this is what gets me. And this is what really gets me excited because Clint Kubiak is a student of the game. You just look at his resume and two things standing up to me on why I love this move. Number one, obviously his father, Gary Kubiak, who's had those tremendous years out there in so many differentties, specifically the Denver Broncos. But Clint Kubiak was hired by the Niners in 2023 last year as our passing coordinator. And we saw what happened at Brock Purdy, right? And here's a name I wanna go back in time. How about learning under one of the most brilliant offensive minds ever in North Turner when he was the assistant wide receivers coach under North in Minnesota. And now he replaces the longtime OCP car, Michael Jr. And he goes to the New Orleans Saints and he, I'm telling you right now, if you want anybody to zone in on a third year breakout live receiver, the recipe is here for OSU's alumnus Chris Alave. Now let's stay in New Orleans and I'm gonna give you a pretty big sleeper as well, in my opinion, that a lot of people are overlooking and he's also a third year live receiver breakout. He is one of those boom or bust receivers and his name is Rashid Shahid. I love Shahid a ton this year in his offense because he's gonna be that go-getter. He's gonna be that long guy in this offense. But the reason why I like him is just think about this. He is the average 17.4, 15.6, that's yards per catch. And it dropped a little bit obviously with their car. But here's the thing, he could take those inside slants and there's little outrots and take it to the house with a big time yak. And he went up in targets, receptions and yards and TDs. Even though I don't look at that, but it's still important to understand that he learned a lot from years one to two. And that's what brings us to his third year breakout. And Kubiak, listen, you saw what he did with Brandon Ayuk. You saw what he did with Deepo Samuel. You saw what he was able to do with that offense. And when everybody's zoned in on Chris Alave, guess who's gonna be the recipient of that double coverage? It's gonna be my man, Mr. Shaheed. So get zoned in on those two things. Obviously you get Shaheed later on in address as a wide receiver to where even possibly people are directing them as a wide receiver three. But Chris Alave, definitely a breakout candidate. If you wanna place a sports wager, you don't have time to do it. You don't have time to study. That's why we're here. Or maybe you're already a pretty good sports better, but you want a little more information. That's why we're here. Either way, we have you covered here at wingalysports.com where we have projection models, we have expert chats. We have prop betting models. We also have deals to do all our partners to make sure you get the best bang for your book. Just think of this scenario. You're working all day long. Now baseball games aren't early. Sometimes they start at six o'clock on Easter time. Maybe you don't get home to five. You wanna spend time with the family. You wanna have dinner. But you also wanna get some bets in and you haven't had time to do it all day. No time for research. No time for study. Or guess what? That's where we come in. You just hop up to windowsports.com and go to your account. You go to the prop days. What team you wanna bet on? What players? You look at our edge meter. You find out the best lines, all on one page. Boom, within 10 minutes. Your bet is placed. Your wager is done and how you can eat. You can get relaxed, how you can watch and win. It's that simple. And right now, because you're listening to this podcast, this segment, we get you 50% off. Use the co-key 8080. If you are a new user, that's all you need to do. Just go to windowsports.com, go to the checkout page and type in HEAT and get 50% off. You can get a week for $7.50. You can get a month for $24.99 or you can get three months for an easy $75. I'm telling you right now, if you do the three months for $75, you will make that money back and pay for the next three months by the time the end of the first month is done. Again, HEATAT is the code windowsports.com and start winning with us today. And that brings us to the land of the Steel Curtain, my favorite coach in Mike Tomlin and the talented young, sometimes headstrong receiver in George Pickens. I've been on George Pickens ever since Russell Wilson, ever since Justin Fields, ever since I just seen his talent. And I've said to myself, if he just puts it all together, this is gonna be his rise. And this year, again, there's no Deontay Johnson to take a lot of those mid-team routes out. The biggest thing with George Pickens as a third year wide receiver is it's gonna be his target to catch ratio. He had 106 targets later, only caught 63 of them. Now, again, that could have been some of the lack loss or quarterback play as well, right? I mean, we don't have to get those names, but they weren't actually eccentric type figures throwing him the ball. So I'm looking at this year as a rise, you take that receiving number from 63, you bump up about 20% for the target, the reception ratio, give you about 130 targets. I'm looking at 85 to 90 catches for George Pickens. And by the way, we're talking about an 18 yard per catch average. That's huge for a guy that could do it all. He can go up and get it. He can run the yacks. Okay, he can go on the inside for possession. He could do it all. So again, whether it's Russell Wilson, whether it's Justin Fields, I do think he'll serve better with Justin Fields. But just remember something, last year, when Ross finally started to cook a little bit in Denver, his go-to guy was not Jerry Judy. It was Courtland Sutton. And he developed a huge cohesive wit Sutton who put up some really good wide receiver numbers the last six to seven gings of stretch. So that's why I like the third year breakout for George Pickens. Now we go to the city of Motown, we go to Detroit and we talk about probably our biggest boom or bust pick as a third year breakout wide receiver in Jameson Williams. Again, we know why. This is a vertical threat who could possibly burn anybody on the field. The first year he comes back, obviously from injury. So we really can't look at that. He only has one catch, right, in six games. But last year, place 12 games, gets 24 for 354. Again, 14.8. By the way, 14.8 yards per catch, it shows you. George Pickens was three yards per catch, even more than Jameson Williams, which shows you how good of a player. George Pickens is, but back to Jambo. Here's a problem. Amontaine Brown, Sandler Porter, and possibly even Jameer Gibbs, soaking up a lot of those targets. So how much is actually left? Well, if you have a high-powered offense and you have Jarakoff who could still get the ball down the field, even though I'm not as big as fan, if you talk about more of a boom than a bust, wait, look, if you take 24 and you just double that, to possibly 48 because he plays six more games this season and you give him about 250 more yards. But you're talking about a decent campaign and possibly if Laporta or St. Brown gets injured, which we don't want to happen. You have another guy to step up to possibly triple those numbers. So I don't have him as one of my top breakouts, but I will say this as a third year wide receiver, he's getting drafted really late in rounds. He's getting overlooked in my opinion. I've seen him, actually I've seen him in a waiver wire on some of my legs. So if you didn't get a Jameson William, just a talent alone, just a talent alone, later in your draft from a value pick and he turns into be a third year wide receiver breakout, that's definitely where you want to go. Are you playing best ball yet? If you're not, you need to start playing right now. Listen, we're all busy on the normal hustle and bustle throughout our everyday lives. We're still fancy football fans, but we have to find a way to really insert all of our energy into a league. But what if we can't? Well, that's why we play best ball, because not only do we not have to make any moves, but we do it in the pre-season and in the pre-season, not only do we get to draft our team for the entire year, but we also get a little practice because we're drafting with real people and not robots, and we can actually decipher draft position and actual ADPs with real actual picks. So get locked in right now. I've been playing underdog fantasy for the past two years, continues to evolve, continues to be user-friendly. And if you use the code right now win daily 100, again, win daily 100 and you're a new user, you will get your deposit maxed up to $250. So if you deposit 25, you're going to get 25. If you deposit 100, you're going to get 100. And that's just more free contests you get to play with me and everybody else. So make sure you get the underdogfancy.com, use win daily 100 and you join today. Now let's finish this up and let's talk about Green Bay. Everybody's on the Jordan Love Train. I'm on the Jordan Love Train, 32 touchdowns. Let me just tell you something. The yards that he's going to throw this year, taking that next step, obviously they paid him for good reason, deservingly so, but you look at what he did last year and I'm telling you, man, if he doesn't get 4,000 yards this year again, I will be absolutely shocked. 4,159 last year. I think he pushes for 45 to 5,000 this year. I am so high on Jordan Love. I really am. I love his poise. I don't give two shits about that. One, picked me through. I was trying to do too much. He had some doubters, but I love that if he could just get everybody healthy, which brings me to the third year wide receivers and Christian Watts and Romeo Dubs. His value will be exponentially grown and so will Christian Watts it. I'll tell you, I know everybody's on Romeo Dubs. I get it, I understand. And he's another third year breakout candidate. Okay, I get it, but I'll tell you what, the sheer talent of Christian Watts and makes me absolutely love this guy's ceiling. And when you talk about third year wide receiver breakouts, it's always that ceiling. Okay, obviously he's going to take, you know, a lot of heat for that injury moniker that's going to follow him around. Again, 23 games in two years. It's not great, but if you look at what he did, what he came back, I mean, you're talking about a guy that was a very big target, especially if he goes up and hits city and you're talking about nine targets, seven for 71. That's the kind of game that you could expect for Christian Watts, he scored two times, but even if he doesn't get a touchdown, that's what I like about Christian Watts. He just has elite speed and huge upside, especially in the red zone. Now, if you swing over and look at Romeo Dubs, who's going to be another third year wide receiver breakout candidate, his numbers in the beginning of the year absolutely were more consistent. I mean, he had a couple of games. You're talking of one, two, three, four, four games with seven plus targets, but after that, he was a boomer bus kind of guy when it comes to touchdowns. I don't think he has as much talent as Christian Watson, and I think the reason why his numbers were elevated more than Christian Watson was here, obviously he was more healthy, but because he played more, right? And he took over that role more, but yards per catch are down from Christian Watson, almost four yards per catch less. And I just think Christian Watson is the bigger talent, especially with the speed and the physicality. So I like Christian Watson a lot, but Romeo Dubs based on value in your drafts. That's where you can get a good play at a breakout live receiver candidate as well in his third year. As always, I want to thank everybody for tuning in and all the support I've been given already. If you're not on social media, Tony@windaleysports.com is my email. Send me a question, send me a tip that you may have, or any help you may need. I'm always there. I check my email literally like every 30 minutes so you can get me there as well. But most importantly, right here, make sure you subscribe, make sure you're liking the pod, give me a review, drop a line, let me know what you think. And we'll be back next time to see what other players we have that are gonna be spiking the pigs kit. (upbeat music) - Bombas makes the most comfortable socks, underwear, and t-shirts. - Warning, Bombas are so absurdly comfortable you may throw out all your other clothes. - Sorry, do we legally have to say that? - No, this is just how I talk and I really love my Bombas. - They do feel that good and they do good too. One item purchased equals one item donated. - To feel good and do good, go to bombas.com/listen and use code listen for 20% off your first purchase. That's B-O-M-B-A-S dot com/listen and use code listen at checkout. Bingo. - All right, Phil, we're recording now, so it's live. Go ahead, pick on me the way that you want to. - Did I say that? I would say that to my son. Man, I mean, come on, man. - Just go. - This isn't CBS. - All right, be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims Complete Podcast? Well, a couple of things. One, if you like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks the (beep) out of his son, this would be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? - Ditto, father's son, Dynamic Duo, talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And hey, it's an extension of what we did, right? Growing up, I was able to watch my father play football, then obviously watch him as a broadcaster. And then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And hey, sometimes we're full of it and sometimes we actually know a thing or two. - Well, we do do a lot of research. At least I do, you're a little spotty, but you hang in there. It's fun, I love doing this and it's been awesome. - Sims Complete, check us out. Wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network, appreciate it. See ya. (air whooshing) - If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. (upbeat music) [ Silence ]
Who will be this year's break-out 3rd Year WRs for #FantasyFootball? Tony Cutillo is back with Episode 3 of Spiking the Pigskin to tell you some of the obvious choices with real analytics and a little twist!
