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[MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] PGA Nation. We are back, and we have made it the final boss, the tour championship. Welcome to Atlanta, where the players will play. Eastlake, for the final 30 golfers that take down the crown, it will be fun this week, but you should know, if you're watching this show, you already know this as a heads up, the leaderboard will be staggered. So not everyone is starting from the same place. The leaders will have strokes to start the tournament, directing prices, is trying a little bit to kind of shade that way, but you can't really do it because the best golfers in the world already have a big lead, so it's going to be really, really interesting in terms of lineup construction this week in a 30-man field, and that's why this draft guest will be super fun breaking it down. Spence, how are you doing tonight? I'm doing well, Joel. I would like to implement this. As you know, Joel, you actually came up with a lot of the point standings that we used to use on this show when we would keep track of which person on the show had the best year, and I was the winner for the first two. I would have to imagine it was you, Joel. Like, you won so many times down the stretch here, but we should implement that back into play and then have some sort of a staggered starting board for this. I don't know exactly how that would be if you have extra picks to start over everybody else, and I don't know. We might have to get that into motion, though, again. Spence, one, that's a great idea, and I appreciate the kudos, but I will highlight, right before we came on this show, we were all just talking about how stupid the finish is hitting me to ourself. I don't know if we want to mimic the terrible finish that we did to our ass. We would come up with a better idea that will still make it a fun finish at the end of the year on our show. David, how are you doing tonight? I'm good, mate. Totally agree. It is very stupid. Like, I'm actually yet to find someone who likes this format. I think that is just telling. There's no one who's, like, an advocate for this being the absolute best way that you can finish the season. And in the chat off here before we went live, I said, you know, DP World Tour manages to do this absolutely just fine every single year. The last tournament, you put a really big prize purse up. You put a bunch of points there so people can still catch her as in the lead. But you still run a normal tournament. You have a leaderboard, and alongside the leaderboard, you say, oh, these are the six guys who can actually win the DP World Tour Championship, or in this case, come win the Felix Cup. And this is what they need to do. The guy needs to finish first, and he needs the other person to finish eighth. And then we're all fine. And then we get to enjoy a golf tournament. There's still people who are in the contention to win because, I mean, in this case, Scottie Cheffler is more than double the Felix Cup points of Hadeki Metzjama who's in third, and Yeti only has three strokes starting on him as the handicap entering the week. So a little bit of a gripe. We're going to have some interesting builds this week. Interesting discussions, I think, and the best way to approach this from the strategic point of view with the starting strokes. Brand new golf course to dive into, which Spencer always does. In general, BMW Championship, it was a very successful week for all of us. In my selections, I had Adam Scott at 55 to 1 finished in second. A bit heartbreaking because he just missed so many 10 foot parts on the back nine, lost three strokes, but he just putted it at even power, basically, or even to the field. He would have won by about two strokes. And then I had Lithik as my top selection for the week. Again, also finished in second at 20 to 1. Nobody really saw Kevin Bradley coming in. Really should be in tournament at Adam Scott one. So always happy to be on a 55 to 1 outsider in a field with only 50 players in it. And let's roll on and get some more wins this week. Joel has done a Hiddikki Mazzjama and his with drawing. So we'll jump across to Spence. Obviously, really interesting this week because he's like being on the PGA Tour for quite some time now. But essentially, we get a Brand new golf course here, following the entry green renovation. So what have you seen in terms of your expert course breakdown and what these renovations might do to what we expect this week? You know, I'm going to kick this question back to you in a second because I think that that's the point of discussion that needs to be had this week because when you look at Eastlake and everything that this venue's been, it has been a course that has been very challenging to make up ground. A lot of that comes down to you have these long par threes and par fours where you just have to, you know, post the total, don't make a big number. And then the short par fours and especially the par fives have been really where you can make birdies. But the problem that comes into play there is everybody makes birdies at the same holes. Everybody bogeys the same holes. And then you kind of get this middle ground there. And outside of Victor's problem last year, if we look at who's won the FedEx Cup, every single name who's done that has provided a total that was 53% or higher of their total strokes game that week or total total gain towards their score that week on the par five holes. So I think for me, it comes down to one of two things that ends up happening here. And this is where I'll pose this question to both of you guys. Like one, we get 150 extra yards. Does that change in the layout? You've had all 18 T boxes rebuilt and overhaul to the fairways, bunkers, greens, a little bit more monetization to the course. The fairway grass was converted to Zoysia. There's been a lot that's been done to this course to change and maybe make this a little bit more open for everybody else. But does that happen to where the 150 yards builds this to a more open venue? Or now we get a third par five. Does that had more on to the par five necessity? I don't know what the answer is to that. And that's what makes this very complicated at the end of the day. I always talk on this show that when we have unknown variables, I worry about extrapolating out the unknown. I think when you extrapolate out the unknown, you back yourself into a corner in a lot of these spots. I would be curious how both of you guys play it. A lot of this is still status quo for what it would be for me, adding a little bit of a mixture of where these new holes are going to be, where the new T boxes are, the new yardages. You're going to get really fast per meter greens. I want to throw that out there too. But where do you guys land on that side of the aisle? Good. Okay. So I in some ways, I think the added distance gets mitigated somewhat. One of the par fours is now a par five. So I don't read too much into that, especially given that being that every single blade of grass on this golf course is brand new and was not here a year ago, that it is going to play extremely firm. So you're going to get more rollout as well, seeing re-contouring of the fairways was already a golf course that favoured driving accuracy. I think the firmness and the fact that the contours and the fairways are now designed to put your ball into precarious positions, makes driving accuracy even more weighted than previously. We've also seen interesting situations where people who have played a golf course many times and then it gets renovated. Actually then subsequently struggle a little bit at that golf course. And I don't know, I guess the logic test for me is does that then mean that because you've got an expectation of how these holes play, you've got an expectation when you're putting it about how a certain part is going to break. And then you've got that kind of muscle memory built in for the golfer suddenly faced with a part that's 15 feet, they think it's going to break two feet and see that breaks through your four because of the new greens. Can that actually kind of mitigate some of this very sticky course history that we've seen at East Lake and actually become detrimental for these guys who have played here previously before. So I think that's a really interesting route to approach. I likened it on a radio segment earlier today to the Dubai Desert Classic did this and they receded completely returfed all of the Emirates Golf Club. It hadn't been receded in 25 years and with those desert golf courses the grass as you can imagine just needs replacing so much more often because of the very harsh environments they are. And it just made for an extremely difficult firm test. So I think that's what we're going to see this week. And actually one of the players that I hope to draft from my team actually performed very well on that year that Emirates Golf Club was renovated. Oh, I love it. For me, I'm not going to overweight anything. You could look at the changes and try and say that you're going to need to make drastic changes to your model. Look for different golfers. You know, at the end of the day, there are significant changes that were made. We're not going to know that's going to play. And so I don't want to overreact and start saying I need longer hitters now and or anything like that. I think I'm going to stick with what we know on this course, you know, take some of that data. And I think I'm just going to push forward with the information that is known. And I think the course history is still relevant. It's still the same course. And I think your point is fair that some guys tend to maybe when the changes come like they not implode, but maybe they don't have the same result they previously had due to the course changes. But that for this cheese cheese, we don't know that how drastic they actually are. We haven't seen it yet. So I'm going to take it as we're going to see what happens. We're going to go out there and and assume that it's going to be as close to similar as it was in past years. And with that being said, there's only 30 golfers, right? So it's a little different selection than it would be in a normal tournament from the standpoint of these guys have four rounds. There's leaderboard advantage. You know, selecting your roster this week is going to be much more heavily focused on one, getting your core right, right? You obviously got to get the core right regardless of ownership. And then if you're playing GPPs, right? The finding a lower owned golfer is going to mean more this week than it would in a typical week because they're just not going to be out there as often, right? So someone who is smart enough to find Keegan Bradley last week at 5% ownership in a, you know, 50 man field was fantastic. Obviously made one, he had a really good week by getting in, right? That's the type of guy you have to find this with someone upside who might be getting all good because that's just going to be the major difference maker at the end of the tournament. Now, I see we have a lot of our regular pool in the chat. See you. Welcome, Zach. Edward, we appreciate you guys. Zach, I've got great news for you. I won again last week, so I get to choose the graph order, which I know you love. I'm really excited with me as the winner. We're landing with three men because there's 30 golfers. So I will be choosing first. Audience, you have the option of who you want to direct with. So the order will go me, Spencer, David, and audience, you can choose who you want to direct with on the show. Literally the first two people to drop a name in the chat. Now they want to draft it. That's what we're going to tell you guys to. We'll get, we'll get, dive into the draft and get started for anyone that might be new tonight. The way the draft works is it's a snake style. Just like your fantasy football draft. I will go first, Mr. Second David's team will have two in a row before it goes back. If you want to participate in the draft with the audience, get on YouTube, get into the chat. You can participate when you draft with a captain. The captain makes the final pick, but you help make nominations of who you guys want to go with. Looking in the chat. Uh oh, it looks like we're at a stalemate between me and David. And Zach says, never. Which makes me want to put the audience with me. I think. Well, we did say the second person to name an expert to draft with. And Zach is named Joe, not necessarily for or against, but you know, you could technically make. Jordan's, Jordan's, uh, and as well. So, um, can I add for the audiences benefit? Just how close last week was on the draft. So Joel won by 0.5 points over team audience last week. And then I actually finished last, but insane, that had Bobby Mack not withdrawn. I probably would have won the week. And it was extremely close across the board is about 36 points according to Ivan. Chatter to Ivan, who always does the numbers for us. Um, there was only 36 points from first to fourth. So it should be another competitive, um, draft cast. And it looks like Joel already answers is now a thing, which Zach will be delighted about. Zach, I love to have you on board. I'm hoping I can get you a W. I know you don't get many of those this year, but come join my team. Zach, you're going to get a win. And I'm excited. So we're not going to do anything crazy. We're not going to ruffle feathers. Looking at the pricing, right? Yes. You know, Scotty is 1200. He was in 12 to 12, one 12 to, um, he has a 10 stroke lead. I mean, not over everybody, but he's a, he starts 10 under, you know, Xander's only eight under. He's the best player in the world. I honestly thought they would have tried to price him at 1400. And I know that sounds crazy. That's what I figured they would have done because that was only in the made sense. So even at 1200 in this field, when the worst golfers at six K are the top 30 guys that in the, on the season. So there's still everyone in the field. It's playable hard. Not that it's hard to get away from Scotty at this point. So audience, love you guys. We'll ask for your input later. Don't need it now. Lock it in Scotty. All right. Spend zero for the second pick. I see you laughing at me. Fair enough. And I'm sure you don't need to give a long explanation as to why Scottie Sheffler is good at golf, but any take on Scotty this weekend, then you're up the second bit. I mean, the only takeaway that I have is first of all, you, it's like the classic bait and switch you just pulled. You give yourself the number one pick. You get the audience to think that they're getting the number one selection, but then you pull the rug underneath them and you're just going to make all the selections anyway. Like the audience should have known I would have let them make all the picks and we could have had a discussion about this. So Joel has already sabotaged the draft. I don't really know what to say at this point. But when you look at this board and this doesn't mean necessarily that David can't figure out a way to construct the lineup. I do think in a three person draft though, David is at a disadvantage right now. There's most of the win equity. Like the vast majority of it is at the very top with Scotty and Xander. We see where the ownership has landed with both of them. I see over 40% on each. And I agree with what Joel said, we had this conversation off air last week when the show ended when we were trying to figure it out. And I said, I thought Scotty was going to be 14,000 plus. Like I wasn't going to be shocked if you got into the 15,000 range. And they made this very challenging of how to make builds and this is very confusing pricing because we got standard Scotty pricing and standard, Xander pricing and then you kind of got everybody in the range of where it should be. So for me, it's just a very simple. I'm going to take Xander. I understand David's points that when a course gets renovated, sometimes players of that nature that are the high end success don't end up finding success when it happens. But there is not a course on tour that is more fit for Xander Shoffley. And I actually think some of these renovations that have been done actually help his game. Long iron proximity is going to be a little bit of an extra weight in my model this week. Xander's long iron proximity is as good as it gets in the field. Weighted putting was a big metric in my model. Xander is the number one expected putter in this tournament. I think there's a reason why Xander's dominated here. I just find it really hard to not want to start a lineup with him because I do think he's going to end up being the winner here. I've kind of made this argument all season that Xander is much closer to Scotty weekend and week out and you throw him on a course where if I'm directly comparing the two, Scotty's been very hit and miss here. He's had some okay finishes when you look at like take away the starting strokes. He has a second the very first time. It's a lot of finishes outside of 14th from there. Xander has first place to six place every single time he's teeted up. So I'll take Xander. I think Xander's the best play in this tournament. But I kind of stand by what I said. If it's not Xander it's Scotty and then after that you're going to get into very standard builds to what other people are doing. And that's what David's going to have to figure out here. Agreed. I think that's a great pick. 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Sign up for a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com/Westwood1. All lowercase. Go to Shopify.com/Westwood1 now to grow your business. No matter what stage you're in, Shopify.com/Westwood1. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, Fiscally Responsible, Financial Geniuses, Monetary Magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to progressive and save hundreds. Because Progressive offers discounts for pain and full, owning a home, and more. Plus, you can count on their great customer service to help you when you need it, so your dollar goes a long way. Visit progressive.com to see if you can save on car insurance. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B. But with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/Results to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/Results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn. The place to be. To be. An argument to be made that Xander could have been the first pick with the salary savings. So, David, I also agree with Spencer, you have your work cut out for you. You got two. Where are you headed? Yeah, just, I guess, one thing that I'll quickly talk about, just in terms of the salary saving on Sheffler, actually, is that the top golfer in this field, the last five tournaments have been Justin Thomas at $15,500. Dustin Johnson, $15,200. Patrick Cantley, $13,400. Scottie at $13,600. Scottie at $13,400. Scottie at $13,400. Scottie at $13,400. Scottie at $13,400. Scottie at $13,400. Scottie at $12,200. And I came for the life of me. Imagine why they've now reverted to this kind of like small increase in pricing given how dominant Scottish Sheffler's been this year. Off the back of that, we also said there's no 5K range this week that has been in play in previous tour championships. So I think it's really interesting that in some ways, even though Scottish Sheffler's going to be 50% owned, even though he is the highest priced golfer, you could make an argument that he's too cheap here quite easily, just given our dominant years. And he has got two strokes on his ender. I do agree that most of the win equity sits with those two players. I'm going to need to scramble a little bit in this last spot. And I'm going to go and take some value because I figured that now you guys will spend up big. Thanks, but you guys are going to need to go. And I'll deal with later, who I'm going to take up further up the board. So the first pick I'm going to take is Victor Hovland. I mentioned him in the lead up or alluded to him in the lead up that the person who won the Dubai Desert Classic, when that golf course got extremely tough firm and got relayed with new grass types, was actually Victor Hovland at 13 under. Despite that, he's in an excellent record at this golf course up until this point. I do think that he can deal with the fact that we have got some changes to the golf course. We've seen some resurgence in his form, which I think is really promising. And the fact is, well, that he's it because he's at two under. He's already eight strikes back. He is an extremely aggressive golfer at the best of times. He has to come out firing. Like he has to come out shooting. He's defending the two of the championship as well, which I think is a really big kind of carrot for him to really go out and give it his all, which I expect. He's been excellent approach the last two starts as well. So I like what I'm seeing from him. I'm happy to go for him at the top here. Final thing I mentioned. Oak Hill, Donald Ross Design, revamped by Andrew Green. Kind of similar recipe is what we saw here. So Oak Hill, 23, Victor Hovland was second. You probably argue he should have won that tournament. At all he found his ball plugged in a bunker on the fairway. So start with him. And then I'm going to jump down the ball, grab some value and see for striker, who is playing some excellent golf at the moment. Driving APC, as I see it, I do expect to be weighted highly here. He has got a very good record at East Lake, but you also just know how aggressive safe striker is. He's not going to come out here wondering he's going to come out firing at pins. I like his driving accuracy aspect and how hot he can get up with the putter as well, which you've got to need from someone who's minus one, minus two to start the tournament to go out, get you birdies, get eagles and try and get up in terms of the finishing points. Interesting strategy to start this draft. Defensive putting Spence in nine in a difficult place, getting some value off the board. I think that's a good start. You've got two solid picks to start. Spence would love your take on Havelin and Straca and then you're up with the second pick. Yeah, Havelin would have been my next choice. I think Havelin was the optimal first pick that could have been made. If you want to look for upside caliber golfers that are a little bit lower on this leaderboard, that's a Victor Havelin answer. We'll save these names as the show moves forward and I'll release them as they get picked. But when I ran an upside portion of my model that put an extra weight on to putting, from those high end golfers that were like two under par or better, Victor Havelin was the third best name, sorry, behind Xander being the top guy in that list. You get these high upside totals. The ball striking is really good. I know the around the green has been bad. He has never really been the best for him. But there's a really high ceiling there and I think the Havelin pick is good. So with David making that selection, I'm now trying to figure out Joel what you are going to do. Because there's two golfers that I do want in this spot. I'm going to go reverse of what I was going to do. And maybe it comes back and bites me here. And maybe I'm big braining the situation. But there's a golfer here that I did not plan to back this week when the week started. It's been a player that I'm always really high on that's not necessarily a shock to anybody. But I've been a little bit lower on him the last handful of weeks. And I kind of thought there's been this ability to fade him in given match ups and things of that nature. But when we got this price tag that we got with a golfer that all the trending recent form is pushing him into a territory where he's a top seven expected performer from just the recent strokes game metrics. If you want to look at the bad putting some of the course cop natures and things like that, like you run into a different problem. But I'm going to take Tony see now here at seven thousand seven hundred. I know the course history leaves a ton to be desired. I understand that. But I think that this is too cheap of a price tag for a golfer that is. I'm not going to stay still in this contest to actually win it without the starting strokes. But I think at three under he can fire freely for four days. And this feels like an optimal situation for him to be able to work himself up the leaderboard. So very fringe top 12 player in my model. But when we look at pricing in some of these recent upside totals, he gets a little bit better than that. So I'll go with female here to save a couple dollars. Tony Fino playing really well this season. I think he's having one of his better seasons in terms of consistently competing. And I agree with you. I think this could be a good week for him to sneak up, especially at seventy seven hundred. He seems like a good without you there. Would you have taken him, Joel? So it's interesting. I don't think I was looking to take him with my next week, but he was on my list of the team I was going to make. It just wasn't going to be in this round. So I've actually pivoted down to someone else I was going to take instead of him. But I was going to have to go from later. So kind of. So the answer is yes. I was going to take him just not here. All right, so the way we're going to do this audience. I'm going to change it up the way we normally do it. I am going to give nominations. Of course you are. Of course you are. I mean the absolute into the surprise of absolutely no one. Exactly. I'm going to teach you guys how to be winners as I've proven to be over the course of this season audience. So the way this is going to work is I am going to give nominations and then you guys will then pick based on the nominations I give. Who the pick will be. So I'll tell you who I like. And now you guys can just settle on who you guys actually want for this pick. I'm going to put out there. Billy ho. Windham Clark. Justin Thomas. You guys we need to. So all these nominations if you like someone put it in the chat. That's going to be our pick the first person you named that I've already listed is going to be our pick. I will also throw out there Adam Scott. I gave you four options. We need to to be double as we have two in a row here. And if audience does not give us over. We got one silent assassin. Oh, there we go. Albert and Jordan picks are in great job team by two solid picks. We're going with Billy ho and windham Clark. Hey, a lot of this is clearly heavily weighted in current form. Both guys playing great golf. Billy ho's got a great course history here. He likes this course. They've married the two of he likes the course. He's also playing some of the best golf we've seen from him in years. I think this week is all kind of drawing up for him to have a great finish at 7100. Billy ho is my favorite value play to target this week. And then windham Clark. You know, we saw windham Clark rise up to be an Olympian to be one of the top golfers on tour early early in the year. End of last year. He got a cold streak. I don't I still don't think everyone's come back around the he's playing great again. He is playing like one of those elite golfers again. And I feel like people are still sleeping on and not getting them the credit where he was at. You know, five, six, four, five months ago at only 8100. This feels like another great price and I with ton of upside out of windham Clark. Spence would love your take on Billy ho and windham Clark. And then you're up with your first. I messed up Joel. That's that's all I can say. I was going to take windham Clark. So I did not read that situation correctly. I actually think that there's two golfers. So I talked about hovelin being one of those names of somebody who's a little bit further down the list. Everybody wanted and I'm not saying they're going under the radar. Hovelin or Clark Clark here, but everybody wanted to back hovelin and Clark last week. And it does feel like specifically with hovelin, it was a very disappointing performance. Clark was more middling of what he provided, but that enthusiasm has definitely dwindled a little bit from where we were at. And it feels like a really nice bite bounce back spot and buy low opportunity on both of those names. Like in an ideal world, I would have started this Zander hovelin Clark. And now I've gotten those other two names like off the board for me. And that's what happens in a 30 man field. So you've definitely left me scrambling here a little bit. I'm going to go with a golfer that has very poor course history here, but it's going to be a home game for him. It's somebody that got a home here a couple years ago. I don't know if that hometown narrative for him hasn't necessarily played, but I'll take another rebate price on Sanjay. And I think he's very equivalent to a lot of these names we're talking about. Like, I would rather have Windham. I obviously took female so I'd rather have female but I'll take Sanjay here kind of know what I'm signing up for from what we've gotten from him. But if I'm being honest, the two names in hovelin and Clark that I would have wanted have been taken from me. So I'll just build this a little bit differently. I'm sure you assumed I was going to take Sanjay and that's why you waited. So you got the surprise there because I do do it and I like Sanjay, you know, the only thing of concern with some days he hasn't had the best results of this course. But again, I think the form is still there. I mean, he had been playing well. Maybe not as most elite golfers most recently, but we know what he's capable of. And I think, you know, he certainly makes a lot of sense, especially at only 7500 you know the upside is there. David would love your take on Sanjay. The rest of the picks that the audience and I took and then you're up with two. Some days a straight steal by Spencer there I would have loved to have had Sanjay on my roster. Look, he's just been so resurgent the second half of the year. I understand the concerns about the course form. As I said, I'm if someone's played well here previously. Great. I'm not waiting at all that heavily. If someone's played travel here previously, you know, I'm kind of going to look more towards recent form rather than discount them totally. And what's been doing the second half of this year has been really, really good. 11th last week again at the BMW Championship. Again, the ball striking looks to be really good. He has finished second here in 2022. I will add that. But the one that really stuck out for me was a night for colonial. And I kind of see that this golf course may play quite fair and fast like colonial does pretty tricky kind of test really fast screens and really strong waiting on around the green. I do think that your ability to scramble is going to be key. So I think a very good pick from Spencer there at Sanjay who you could argue is under price. You make the same argument for Wyndham. My concern with Wyndham is twofold. One, he's 30th on Zoysa out of 30 for approach. So if you look at all the golf courses, we as always a grass is used for fairways. He is dead last in this field on approach. And then additionally driving accuracy, which I do think driving extra is going to play a part this weekend. Obviously that is a week point in Wyndham's game. But as it's been said in the chat from life in which I love this is a Joltatorship at this point. And I think that's just a great call. Zach loves it as well. The Joltatorship, no surprises at all. So I'll come in here. I've got to go back to back. And yeah, as I said, maybe struggling a little bit in the fact that I can't go and take Sanjay in, who would have loved to play. But I can take Tommy Fleetwood, who is playing X and golf as of late for last week at BMW, obviously a silver medal at the Olympics as well. And so just like the form that he's in, he doesn't necessarily have to go out and win this tournament. In fact, it's going to be very difficult for him to go out and win this tournament. But he's a kind of measured golfer who I think still takes his process and weak seriously despite the fact that he's probably out of contingent, given the starting strokes. He was 16th at Pinehurst, designed by Donald Ross earlier this season, 18th at Oak Hill, which was the Donald Ross course, which is read signed by Andrew Green. Six at East Lake last year as well, as well as an 11th and 16th in this history too. So just like the way that he's playing in the moment, seems a bit undervalued for who datacol for the moment, Rankers, the 9th best player in the world. I'm going to follow that up with Russell Kenley. I'm a little bit concerned with the pro play that we haven't seen from Russell Kenley lately because it does always feel like Kenley needs to out hit his putter a little bit. So a little bit concerned about that, but I do love the driving accuracy metrics we get from him. He was 7th at Pinehurst earlier this year in that Donald Ross design. He was 14th here last year as well as a third back in 2017 when obviously it was a different format in the bigger field and a 12th in 2014 here as well. So Russell Kenley and Tommy Fleetwood for me continue that route going to grab some value and then I'll see who's left at the top of the ball by the end of this draft. Interesting and this is where this tonight's draft is going to be unique. Pretty much an entire mid 7k range or a big heavy portion of it's already gone. So people who are shifting or maybe you're going to have to shift didn't pick you on targeting in that range. But I'll go back to this is definitely 100% of tournament. You can leave more money on the table. You do not need to spend all of your money. Again, let's send another way to make sure you can get different, especially if it's a 30 man field and we're playing GDP, you're going to want to find ways to get different. So we'll have to strategize their spends would love your take on Tommy Fleetwood and Russell Henry and then you're up with your porch. I like both picks from David. I don't have a problem with either one of those two selections. I think you get a good price tag on both of them and a lot of good points that David brought up. So there's for me, I just was messing around with my model and I was trying to figure out from weighted proximity and weighted total driving. So that's just essentially the expectation of what a golfer should do specifically for this venue inside of my model. There were five players that graded inside of the top 10 for both of those two metrics. It would be your very standard names of Scotty, Havlin, Xander, there's somebody else who hasn't been taken that I'm going to leave out right now. But there's a golfer that has moved in the wrong direction here recently and I know the results have been very hit and miss but I think we're getting a cheap price tag here because of it and I didn't necessarily love them at the BMW Championship. I kind of talked about it in all my articles that I even did for action network that I thought that as the tournament went on he was a prime fade candidate and we saw him regress near the bottom of the leaderboard but I'm going to bet for the upside here with the ball striking and I'm going to take Akshay but Tia at 6900 and hope that he can put the pieces together in a birdie making fashion to work himself up the leaderboard here. Boom. Akshay off the board. Definitely a good value. We've seen his upside. Had a really good season. Before we move on David would love your take on Akshay for this week. Yeah look I think that spins alluding to the fact that Akshay has a ton of upside is bang on. We obviously have seen him get extremely hot. He's one at a tournament in a stableford competition which really rewards aggression so no kind of surprise in that regard. My slight concern comes up probably weight and driving accuracy a little bit higher than Spencer's so obviously there can be a weakness or a gap in Bartier's game but certainly has the ability to go out and get birdies, get eagles. He's also got the added incentive of he needs a captain's pick to get into the President's Cup team. I do suspect that he gets selected but he does have that added incentive of wanting to perform well and make sure that he's in that conversation. The Jim Furix having win selecting the final picks for Team USA in the present cup in a few weeks time. Boom. All right. Incentive it is. All right audience we got two I see some nominations already in. I like them. I'm okay with them. I will add them as I put my nominations in and then whoever it says the seconds after I list them is who our final pick will be. I will start with Adam Scott as someone I think we should be considering. I also like Sam Burns as someone who I would be very high on in this pick but I'd be okay with going with Morikawa or Aaron Rye. I even like Pendreth a lot as well so I will put them all out there as nominations. I just hope you guys have a plan if you take those guys who will finish this draft with because I had a plan and now I might have to shift based on who you guys finalize. Now I've given you all of your options as someone you can take. We will not take Pervone and you guys can settle on who the final pick is not taking Pervone. That is a, I'm not allowing it. I'm not taking with my last pick maybe but not yet. I feel that the audience are just absolutely trying to cause a revolution over throw the dictator here by a nominee. I don't think they even want Pervone at this point. It's just sticking the bird to you Joel as their leader. Just say no, actually we're just going to nominate Pervone here which I love. The audience on fire here. All right. I will lock in Rye, settle this as and put it in so we will lock that in. Listen, Rye lost his punter a little bit in just the last like two weeks. He didn't ball strike, you know, it wasn't his best ball striking week last week either. He's been so good ball striking. I think that bounces back. I have confidence in the ball striking not being an issue. To matter of that putter, you know, there was a few weeks stretch where he found a hot putter. If he gets that back, I think he can get a great result. He's way under priced but we're just going to need him to be able to make some putts, which I think he can. We'll go ahead and lock in. Morikawa here at the next pick as well. He was definitely someone on my radar. He's been great this season. This does feel like a week. They should suit him again. I do 100. I think the pricing is fair with plenty of upside. So I like the Morikawa. I think we got two pretty good picks here. Wasn't the exact direction I was going to go. But I'm happy with where we landed. Spence. I'll go back to you. Do you have any issues with Rye or Morikawa this weekend? And then you're up with the fifth pick. I would argue, or at least my model would argue, that Rye is the most under priced golfer on the board. I have concerns for some of the reasons you talked about. There were specific metrics that pushed him in the wrong direction too. But I've mentioned this quite a bit and we've all talked about this on the show. I run my model from a long duration of time. If I look at the expected just on any generic course in strokes gain total. Rye is fifth on the PGA tour in strokes gain total. And I think it's kind of the kind of obvious names that you could talk about. Rye has had a huge 2024 season, has really set himself up well moving forward. Like I think he's a great golfer and it's shown. I think Morikawa kind of fits into that same mold that we talked about with the hovelins and the clerks where it's a buy low opportunity for him. I don't have a problem with him. He was on a short list of options that I was considering with my next pick. It's going to take the Rory McElroy. Like if we want to talk about each like standouts, it's Rory and Xander. Those are the two golfers that consistently find the high end success here over and over again. If you want to look at players that have posted the best total at this course. It's specifically Xander and Rory more than half the time over the last five years. So not exactly like I said what I was planning to do. I think and I don't think this alters the draft at all at this point. I think Oberge is a nice opportunity to potentially buy at his price tag. I have no problems with anybody that wants to go down that route. I'll take Rory here though. It's a very easy build for me. I do think there's a lot of popularity from this lineup. I have but you're going to have that with any lineup that you pretty much make unless you find that sub 7% name that there's a couple of them. Maybe Akshay ends up being that option for me but everything else is pretty standard I think. This does to me feel like a bounce back week for Rory. It's Eastlake. It's a place we know he likes. He competes well at. You're not going to see Rory go months without a top five. You know how good Rory is. He's been doing it for long enough. It's not a thing people like to say he's due. But it does feel like a bounce back week is coming and this certainly fits the mold for his game. David, we'd love your take on Rory and then you got two to close at your draft. Yeah, look, I agree that I thought the bounce back last week and compared to what he did at TPC Southman was probably underrated. He's, you know, he as well is going to be a little bit unpopular because one, he broke a driver to he threw a three word into the water. Anytime that you see golf is doing that, like, the public don't want to be associated with that. See has made this point before. Shout out to see Nijard in the chat as well. Our friend from CBS and he's made this point before that. The general public don't want to be associated with a player who's like going through that kind of behavior. Like we kind of just like shy away from it whether that's like consciously or subconsciously is up for debate. And so if you're going to get Rory McEnroy a little bit underrode in the $9,000 range, he's kind of been the king of East Lake along with Zander. I mean, Spencer's got both Zander and Rory on his lineup here. So there's a very, very intimidating build that he has got going. There you have it. All right, David, you got two to finish off your draft. Who are you looking for? Yeah, so I mean, look, I've got kind of my pick at the top that I wanted to go with. I figured these guys would fall back to me. I'm going to take Ludwig, very, very good week last week. Been finishing seconds. You could argue that him putting the ball in the water on a par five was really what swung the tournament away from them. Probably again, we had to expect Ludwig to go out and win. And if you compete, I mean, another friend of the show being Coley, you know, it was probably time for Ludwig to go and win one. I mean, when we saw guys like Ram and Hovland coming out and emerging as these talents, they put themselves in those positions and then they win at one. So he probably should have won last week. But he is playing great golf. And I think the all-round nature of his game will be really suitable. I like the factors while they went to college in Texas. We have a lot of experience. Shopify is the global commerce platform that helps you sell at every stage of your business. 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Go to Shopify.com/Westwood1 now to grow your business. No matter what stage you're in, Shopify.com/Westwood1. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance, Fiscally Responsible, Financial Geniuses, Monetary Magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and Save Hundreds. Because Progressive offers discounts for pain and full, owning a home, and more. Plus, you can count on their great customer service to help you when you need it, so your dollar goes a long way. Visit Progressive.com to see if you could save on car insurance. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, potential savings will vary, not available in all states or situations. My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laugh at me to this day. Not everyone gets B2B. But with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/Results to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/Results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be to be. It's playing in really, really firm and fast conditions as well. I'm going to follow that up with a huge risk in Hideki Matsuyama to finish out the lineup. Look, the fact is I am deeply concerned with the fact that he was second at the B&O Championship last week and decided to withdraw with a back injury. It wasn't a case of he was down the end of the field and thought, "Ah, screw this. I'll just tune up next week to a championship." Because he's guaranteed to finish third anyway. And the fact that he withdrew is deeply concerning. Because of that, we're going to get an ownership discount. And so that's the kind of weighing up that risk tolerance versus the fact that Matsuyama will just not be a popular name this week. Certainly compared to Chefland Shovelay above. And those lineups that start with the Chefland start with the Shovelay are going to struggle to go to the Hideki Matsuyama in 10,000 and build like a sound lineup as a result of that. So the end of the day, he's starting at minus seven. He's in a really good year. He's had two iconic victories. One of them we were on at TPC Southwind a couple of starts ago. And then the Olympics, obviously, were on him when he finished their day as well recently to go along with the win of the Genesis Invitation. It's been a great year for him and just hoping that the big injury isn't all that serious. Last time that we heard that he was not feeling that great, the Zozo Championship rated his game as a winner. He rated his game as a one out of 10, came out of one that week. So I'm going to take that upside that comes with the Dickey here and feel that I've got a lot upside and some guys who can go extremely low if we have to. Well, it's not going to be anyone surprised how I feel about both of those picks between Ludwig and Hideki. Those are my guys for sure. And I think your point is fine. I mean, if anyone doesn't know this, that is my logic. Obviously, it's risky. But to David's point, right? Hey, people see this injury, they scare them off, especially this week with ownership being more important. Listen, there is a world where Hideki just plays a good week of golf, right? And he's playing, he's teeing it up. If you get a suppressed ownership in an tournament where ownership is going to be power them out on a golfer as good as a Deccy Matsuyama, there's a lot of edge to that. So I love that round. I think you got a nice looking squad. Spence would love your take and then you got your last pick. We kind of talked about this at the beginning of the show without giving the answers of what David would have to do to compete. David fit in the pieces pretty ideally from the options that he had available to him. It's about as good of a team that you can put together while not being able to draft Scotty and Xander. So it'll be interesting to see where that lineup ends up landing. When I was trying to, I don't know if this is even the optimal path, but one of the things I was running just a tally of as we were going on is starting strokes aren't everything and starting strokes build a lot of ownership that comes into play to. There's players that are over-owned because of it and that are under-owned because of it. When I was looking at all of our teams of what we had, like I have Xander at 8, you look at Phenosung J, Akshay Rory, everybody there is going to be between like 2 and 4. And it's a very flat build with a Xander lineup that I have. And when I was trying to figure out what is the next name that I could fit that kind of fits that territory, there's a handful of options that would technically fit the criteria. Like, the goal of technically fits the criteria for what I have available, I am worried about his wrist. That was one of the worst-putting performances that he put together at the BMW Championship I've ever seen. You want to talk about upside? There's upside in that profile, but don't necessarily want to go with Akshay and sahith with the amount of volatility that that's going to put into play. I could consider Ben on. That was something that was definitely in the realm of what I was going to do. But I'm going to go here with the golfer who's starting at 300-par. He's making his first Eastlake appearance. But if you look at any of the recent bull striking metrics that he's put together, Shane Lowry is really striping the bull well. The one concern comes down to how does he handle the Bermuda Greens? He is one of the worst projected Bermuda putters that I have in my model. And there's a lot of names like that. I mean, Phenal fits that same mold. So you have two guys that can't really put on these greens, but have ball striking numbers that are better than the price tag. So I'll take Shane Lowry here. It's going to put me, at least as of right now, with the most built-in starting strokes, whether or not that ends up being advantage, we will see. But I also think on the flip side of that answer, there is some leverage that's just naturally going to be created from both Lowry and Akshay. It's not like I took the guys with the most strokes who are also carrying a ton of ownership to them. I think Lowry is a good pick here. His ownership looks pretty low. And it's a guy I want to put. Because you know Lowry is upside. He has weeks where he puts it together and he can get you a top five or 10. This could be one and only 7,300 with strokes. I think that's a really interesting strategic pick there. I like it. Audience, we have our last pick here. There's one that I really want. I'm going to put two nominations out there for you guys to choose from. Taylor Pender and Justin Thomas. Now, I would rather go with Pender. I think it's better to leave some money on the table here. I'll make our lineup more unique. Thomas is going to be more popular. People know Thomas. I actually think Pender is the better pick. Leave more money. People makes the lineup more unique. That's where I would go while we wait for the final pick to get locked in. David, would love to get your take on Shane Lowry. I mean, I just think it's hilarious first that you're dictating to the audience who they can take. And I think the fact that you're probably playing reverse psychology here. I suspect in that you've said I'd rather go with Pender. So I don't want Justin Thomas in order to get the audience to pick Justin Thomas is pretty savvy. I do really like Shane Lowry in tough major like conditions. And he's actually performed pretty well. The last two majors that Donald Russ designed as well. So those were Pinehurst earlier this year and Oak Hill last year as well. So Pinehurst was 19th 12th at Oak Hill last year as well, which was their one that was redesigned by Andrew Green. I'm kind of renowned for re going these Donald Ross and returning them to the original design ball striking. Looks like it's really, really good to Shane Lowry lately as well. I do like as well that his around the green game is actually surprisingly good. A lot of people don't give Shane Lowry a lot of credit for how good he is around the green. A lot of it's going to come down to the putter, but the paper, he can strike the ball. He's pretty accurate off the tee. He's got around the green game to go with him as well. So I do think that's a pretty savvy selection in the low seven case that's been to gone to. And it's a pretty impressive lineup that I do appreciate it. Now you've just got a decision of are you going to go with Kim or Justin Thomas or Matthew Pivon. Well, I want to just address Zach. I know you wanted Benny and I know this is hard for you Zach can afford him. So that's how the draft works. You got to be able to afford the rosters on your team. That's why you got me as the captain. I can see in the right direction. See you guys and get it right. And that's that I will fix this for you. All right, even though JT was put in as the fact I was not one. I want Pendreth. And I don't care. I'm going to take pendreth. So that's what happens. You get me as your captain. I will take pendreth. You can put it in as Joel gate pendreth gate JT gate. I don't care what you want to call it audience. This is how you win. This is how you draft the winning lineup. Watch the results next week. Take a screenshot. We're going to come back and crown a champion. Let us know what lineup you think is going to win before we get you all out here this week. We do have our first round leaders, but do us a favor. Hit the like button. Give us a follow. It goes a long way. If you're not already, make sure you sign up for when daily. It's been a heck of a season. We're getting a ton of information. Tomorrow we'll get Stephen's ownership article. That is going to be critical for this week, especially understanding ownership. We can get leverage in these GPPs. We're going to give you our first round leaders tonight, but don't forget we'll have it weather updates in discord. Get in there. You can see if there's any changes based on the weather updates. We will also provide outright tickets. All that additional information you will have access to by signing up for when daily. So don't forget sign up. Get the extra information when with us. But before we get to that, let's get to the first round leaders before we let you out of here tonight. David, we'll start with you. Who are you targeting in the first round leader market or matchups? Well, firstly, you know, some countries they run elections and then the results just end up being completely different or that basically there's only one person on the ballot anyway that people can vote for. That's essentially what Joel has done with his last last election there for the audience. He's given them choices and interested. Oh, well, screw all you guys in this guy's winning anyway, so doesn't even matter. So definitely electoral fraud there from Joel. Zach is not pleased about Jordan's calling for a rebellion in the chat. It is a great way to end the season, but don't don't fret. It's only one week and then we're back for FedEx Cup for the PGA to a full season. We'll come into swing straight after. And then of course we've got a lot of DP will to coverage as well. So I've actually already got my British master selections in the wind daily discord. We've gone on absolute fire across both tours this year, 20% ROI again. So consistently outperforming at the S&P 500 every single year by quite some margin. And yeah, you can get a discount code in the description and like, yeah, it's only $7.50 a week. So kind of a no brainer. Get in the chat with us. We'll give you expert advice one on one coaching, everything that you need to be a successful DFS player and a successful golf beta as well. First round leaders. I was really hunting for like a lowest first round market rather than first round leaders because obviously you're going to have just got a handful of like $1.57 because of the sales with two strokes. So I'm instead actually going to give out a treble or what you guys in America would call a parlay between three golfers to win their two balls. So I've got set striker over Matthew Pivon, audience favorite got some JM over the hip, the gala and Tommy Fleetwood over Blee Horshel. So I think all three of those come in there through their two ball to start round one. You're getting that at $6.33. That's plus 533 American money. Check 1.5 units on it. You're going to get 10 back. So I really do like those three two balls to start the first round for you. I love it. All right, Spencer. How about you? I know the first round reader market's going to be especially challenging. Would you have any matchup plays as well? I'll go back down the route of Shane Lowry here. I took Shane Lowry minus 110. I'm also going to be fading saw hit the gala just like David talked about. All right, I love it. I'm going to give out one first round leader play and I'm going to go with Hideki. And I think, you know, with the starting strokes, he's in range. I mean, he's only three back to start to get him at 10 to one. I mean, that's a pretty big number. I mean, obviously he's given up three strokes to, you know, the two best golfers in the world, but 10 to one. I mean, it wouldn't shock anyone if he had this hot start start off five or six under which I think five or six under should allow him to get close to covering Scott, it can go 300 or 200 and he'd be able to get the first round leader. So I think just 10 to one is a really good number. There's really only like four, maybe five guys you can even consider for a first round leader. So if you can get a 10 to one number, it could be an interesting fun bet that the play with on Thursday. That's a wrap for tonight, tour championship big week, a ton of money on the line for the golfers. The pressure will be on down the stretch. I'm excited to see how this all plays out. We appreciate you all as we always do. Don't forget to tune in to lose. We crown a champion at the end of the week and then we'll draft again as the next season gets started. Did I forget any of it. It looks like Zach has chosen a path of peace, which I really appreciate. He's wishing you a master to end the draft and you've finished cup season, which I think is just very noble with him. I'm sure that you Joel would like to respond in kind to Zach in that regard. Obviously all done in just it's all fun against you. Zach, I propose that next, now this is the last tournament of the season. I propose we start clean slate next season as pals. We can get along next year on the same team and start fresh in 2025 season. This is the biggest amount of horse shit I've ever heard before. And the argument could be made. Like, is this the end of the season? Or is there like kind of this one good gap and then we're into like the four series, see who gets retained it there to a card. It's all a bit funky. It's all a bit weird. But yeah, look, I mean, just jump into the window. That is probably my advice. Last week, we gave up one bet at the woman's open. That was Lydia Ko to win at St Andrews, which she did at 28 to one. So another big winner along with two players and seconds last week as well. So hopefully Zach and Joel in that one week can maybe organize some sort of mediation, maybe some sort of intervention. Get a counselor involved. We can talk this out, I think. And we'll be seeing it come by up and come to the four series. Fair enough. And I appreciate it. Zach, I have a pleasure drafting with you every week. Thanks, David. It's always been a good time. I'm sad this season is coming to hand, but I'm looking forward to starting fresh with you guys in a couple of weeks. And of course, sports. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat, literally. But don't sweat it. Grainger has you covered. Grainger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery. So you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-GRANGER. Click Grainger.com or just stop by. Grainger for the ones who get it done. Bingo. All right, Phil. We're recording now. So it's live. Go ahead. Pick on me the way that you want to. Did I say that? I would say that to my son. Man, I mean, come on, man. Just go. This isn't CBS. All right. Be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast? Well, a couple of things. One, if you'd like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks the **** out of his son, this would be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? Ditto. Father, son, dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And, you know, hey, it's an extension of what we did, right? Growing up, I was able to watch my father play football. Then obviously watch him as a broadcaster. And then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And, you know, hey, sometimes we're full of it. And sometimes we actually know a thing or two. Well, we do do a lot of research. At least I do. You're a little spotty, but you know, you hang in there. It's fun. I love doing this and it's been awesome. Sims complete. Check us out. Wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network. Appreciate it. See ya. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. [crowd cheering] [BLANK_AUDIO]
Join Spence (@TeeOffSports), Joel (@draftmastersflex), and David (@deepdivegolf) as they deep-dive into their preview of the Tour Championship!
