Listen to Jim Cramer’s personal guide through the confusing jungle of Wall Street investing, navigating through opportunities and pitfalls with one goal in mind - to help you make money.
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer
Mad Money w/ Jim Cramer 8/27/24
This episode is brought to you by Merrill. With a dedicated Merrill Advisor, you get a personalized plan for your financial goals. And when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to email.com/ bullish to learn more. Merrill, a bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk, Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Finner, and Smith Incorporated registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor, member SIPC. Breaking news, the peanut butter group and Chocolatey Corp have merged to create PBC Inc. And the byproduct of the merger is the new delicious Jif peanut butter and chocolate flavored spread. I got the press release and get this. Critics tried to say it creates a monopoly on cravability. But obviously, it's not illegal to be irresistible. Calling it now, this will revolutionize the snack industry and the contents of my pantry. Visit pbcincorporated.com to try the flavor merger of the century, Jif PBNC. - My mission is simple, to make you money. I'm here to level the playing field for all investors. There's always a more market somewhere and I promise to help you find it. Mad money starts now. - Hey, I'm Kramer. - Welcome to Mad Money. Welcome to Kramer. I'll be with my friends. I'm just trying to make your little money. My job is not just entertained, but the educate put everything in the context. So call me at 1-800-743-CBC, tweet me at Jim Kramer. Who is Nvidia? What is she? That all our swings commend her. Holy fair and wise is she. The heavens such grace did lend her that she might admire be. Yeah, but I have to default to Shakespeare no less. And that great verse from two gentlemen of Verona. The one that sings the praises of the wonderful Sylvia. And the power of love felt by all for his, this goddess of uncommon beauty, both outside and in. Well, isn't that what Nvidia's become? Well, I mean, even if it's quarter with a whole market on Tenor Oaks, the Dow advancing 10 points, as we in she got 0.16%, the NASDAQ gaining 0.16%. We have to ask, who is Nvidia? Really? And what is she? Now you may think it's silly to quote the bar at the top of a business show. But frankly, in all my 43 years on Wall Street, that's right, right here, 43 years. I have never seen anything like Nvidia. So I scrounced for analogs and come up grasping for something ethereal to match the hardware of this wonderful company. This 3.2 trillion dollar enterprise, where 580 billion, just 18 months ago, has captured the hearts and minds of people who have nothing to do with the stock market at all. I've never seen so many people have a life changing experience from a single stock. It's borderline miraculous. But tomorrow at this time, Nvidia stock will descend into mere mortality. So I feel compelled to explain why, both why Nvidia has this exalted status, and why it frankly can never live up to the hype of its 3.2 trillion dollar market gap, purely on the basis of one upcoming quarterly report. Why? Because in the end, the quarter is about Nvidia beating the earnings estimates, topping the revenue numbers and crushing the forecast. The stock has run so much into the quarter that it needs a 2 billion dollar revenue beat. It also needs the revenue guidance to come in 2 billion dollars higher than expected, along with the bullish conference call and talks about a more of your roadmap. Oh, and let's throw in a gigantic buyback, because the company simply got too much cash to leave Sydney in the back. Unfortunately, Nvidia likes Sylvia. Simply can't be captured by such a pedestrian set of figures. It's almost a travesty that this Prometheus can be bound by the chains of the estimates. What's the problem here? First, let me just say that the vast majority of people who own Nvidia probably don't even know what Nvidia does. They know it's a semiconductor company, which is really only partially true. They know its chips are lightning fast, but they don't know why that matters. They know it has something to do with artificial intelligence, but maybe it's better than real intelligence? Nvidia has actually created an entire platform of hardware and software that's trained to give answers and infer what you may need depending on the task. Nvidia has the fastest chips known to man or woman, and because they so fast, they can digest all the information in the world and spit it back in a smart digestible way. A knowledge worker can prosecute that data and figure out things that were unfearellable before Nvidia dreamed up this business. You have used artificial intelligence. If you've ever taken a recommendation from Amazon, that's called inference. Amazon puts all your data through this technology, so it'll almost always be right because it mimics, your brain. Generative AI, the kind that heavily relies on Nvidia's technologies are artificial intelligence on steroids. It generates new content often via text, think chat, TBT, Gemini, quad, or meta AI. It also creates images that look like they were made by a human. It can write music better than any pretty much a bad new living composer. Other companies, notably AMD, have chips that can do a lot of what Nvidia can do, but Nvidia is a big edge thanks to its CUDA computing platform combined with its high-end chips, which allows smart developers to write code. It's a virtuous cycle, people. The more training, the more writing, and so forth and so on. Nvidia's architecture allows simultaneous calculations that can mimic real humans. An Nvidia-powered set of GPUs that are a part of the next generation Blackwell chip can digest what we dig in an instant and tell you more about it than the average English professor, even the best English professor. There's nothing like this. That's the story told in the language of authentic Silicon Valley gibberish. Let me tell you what's really going on here, though. Johnson Wong, the CEO of Nvidia, has created a platform that's unduplicated by anyone else, both for its speed and for its utility. The new platform, Blackwell, can ingest images and teach us how to do things that we'll never be able to do without its decisions. Well, let's consider a simple example. No picture, no matter how good, not see any code facts, switching maths and done Bob Gibson, not so young, could strike at every player while pitching a perfect game, right? But a robot, supercharged by Nvidia's Blackwell platform, would have studied every pitch in every swing ever, programming itself to throw an unhittable ball every time generates that. A game where every batter strikes out will be child's played for the robot. At the same time, a robot could study every drink ever poured for James Bond and make a perfect martini every time. In more prosaic terms, it could load and retrieve boxes perfectly, never getting hurt when they fall. Maybe you can't make every one of the three billion drink combinations in Starbucks, but I think that's asking too much, even for a genius like Jensen Mom. But you can see that Blackwell is basically challenging, not the sound barrier, but the speed of light, even as we are taught, that nothing can exceed lights performance. I think our own brains are just too small, too small to figure out all the implications. Fortunately, Jensen's brain doesn't, and he knows that we'll put enough about future iterations of this platform that could make Blackwell look positively anti-deluvian in a few years, how many comes up in the next generation, and then the next generation after that. Again, we can't know how all this computing power will be used, but it's definitely gonna get put to work, and I bet it'll be revolutionary. But that's the problem. We don't know how to use all the power, at least not yet. So we don't know how to comprehend how much of a game changer in the future, but just because we can't envision it doesn't mean we won't be able to use it. We do know though that in the end, this greatness must be captured by the chains of earnings per share and revenue forecast, which is what will happen tomorrow evening. Why aren't I more concerned? Because every major company from meta to Google to Amazon, Microsoft wants NVIDIA's best chips. They want them because they have smart people who'll be able to figure out what to do with them. In the same way that Sam Altman of OpenAI figured out how to use Chatshi BT to create everything from haiku to music to paintings, Picasso Cezanne Matisse, they're no longer with us, but we can see what they would paint. Mozart and Beethoven check that ages ago, but I could see Blackwell writing the Saturns if you go with Mozart's beautiful Jupiter number, or maybe we could all at last year Beethoven's 10th. I can't wait until NVIDIA brings us Macbeth Part II. He's back, and he's bigger than ever. All these wonders are so fanciful, so impossible that we can't really get our heads around them. We don't know enough to use these platforms, other than when they're reduced to the omenack of all things that we can query, like Chatshi BT. No, Google doesn't need to buy NVIDIA platforms to keep over the Amazon. It needs them because it's people can figure out things that they can't figure out without them. It's about survival. You get Blackwell or Wither and others, like Elon Musk or Amazon's Andy Jassy just surpassed you. You won't catch up. When you think of all these wonders for NVIDIA's technology, you don't sit there and worry about how massively they can beat the estimates in one particular quarter. We can't judge a video like other companies, so we certainly can't judge it stock by one static quarterly snapshot. The bottom line, I don't want to be you. So I say to NVIDIA, let us sing that NVIDIA is excelling. NVIDIA excels each mortal thing upon the dull earth dwelling. To her, let us garlands and upside surprises bring. Let's talk to Eric in New Jersey, Eric. Eric, you're up. Well, perhaps we should go to John, in Kentucky, John. - Hey, Jim, thanks for having me on. A real fan of you and your show. - Well, thank you very much. - Thank you very much. - I'm on this, okay, we appreciate it. I'm on this, I appreciate you. I've on this cybersecurity stock for the last three to four years, bought it on your recommendation and over most of that time, I made really good money on it, but the last six months it's been dead money. Jim, should I continue to hold? Or should I sell it and buy another cyber security stock? - And that one is Palo Alto network. - All right, Palo Alto's a 18% not chabby. It's probably up the most of any cyber security company now that CrowdStrike has stumbled, although I think CrowdStrike has bought them, as I said, at the 230 level. I think Palo Alto's worth holding out. We trimmed just a little bit, because we bought so much on that big breakdown that we don't want it to be our biggest position. But I say stick with Palo Alto, stick with them, catch Aurora. I think he's a winner, I think the stock's a winner. Stephen in Illinois, Stephen. - Hey there, hi Jim, have you hear the voice again? I'm considering to be more and more people wearing this brand, especially when I go to Starbucks. I hear it's one of the most comfortable shoes, but I know you always say there's a difference between a good stock and a good company. Now my question is that valuation for on-club holdings getting ahead of its self-grinding. - No, no, on holdings is a terrific company and a terrific stock. I have been championing this thing since '23. The shorts have been all over it. The shorts think that this company is just another flash in the pan. And FITP, they are wrong. I would be, if I were Nike, I would be worried about on one. I would be worried about Hoka, and I would be worried about new balance. And I would be shaking if I worked there. I'm not talking about shaking a boss, you know, like Paul Newman. I'm talking about really, really worried. No cool-hand loop by cool-hand shoe. Kathy in California, Kathy. - Hi Jim, how are you? - Good, how are you? - Good, first time caller. I just wanted to call in and ask your opinion about Merck. I'm down in my position and I'm not sure if I should just hold on to it or what to do. - Kathy, Merck, I'd hit by the Chinese stick when it reported last and a little surprising. We didn't expect that, it's happened. It happened to our day and a her at one point for our travel trust. I say Robert Davis, Rob is doing a phenomenal job. Here's what I want you to do. I think tomorrow you buy more Merck. I think it's a very inexpensive stock with a 2.6% yield and very, very well run. At 14 times earnings, I think it's a bargain. Look, when you think about all the wonders created from NVIDIA's technology, you can't judge this company like others, and you certainly can't judge the stock based off of punk women. Two gentlemen of runners, pretty swollen. Remember to turn it. Our major changes come to the owners' construction. The NFL, I'm sitting down with the owner of the defending Super Bowl champion, and the city chiefs. You gotta read on what the old means for the league, right before the new season kicks off. Then, the market is gearing up for NVIDIA's earnings tomorrow, as I mentioned. I'm gonna go off the track to see how much it will make or break the moment. It really is for the major average. Plus, I'm investigating the state of the IPO market to see where all the new offerings have gone. So stay with Kramer. (upbeat music) - Don't miss a second of Mad Money. Follow @chimcramer on X. Have a question? Tweet Kramer, #MadMensions. Send Jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com, or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. Miss something, head to madmoney.cnbc.com. When you're hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match. With Indeed, Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors according to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging to connect with candidates faster. Plus, 93% of employers agree Indeed delivers the highest quality matches compared to other job sites according to a recent Indeed survey, leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day. Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences. Join more than three and a half million businesses worldwide that use Indeed. Listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com/madmoney. Just go to indeed.com/madmoney right now and support this show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast, indeed.com/madmoney. Terms and conditions apply. Indeed to hire, you need Indeed. Now, two pigeons be moaning the fact you can stream direct TV satellite free. These humans can stream all the top rated national news channels on direct TV and now with no satellite dish. It's just in, weather, sports, election coverage. Direct TV has it all, but something is missing. The satellite dish. What are you doing? I'm reporting the news. Back to you, Bob. Here's some news. You're at a buffoon. Stream the top rated national news channels. No satellite dish. Visit directtv.com. Internet Required, top rated news based on 20, 23 Nielsen ratings. Imagine earning a degree that prepares you with real skills for the real world. Capella University's programs teach skills relevant to your career so you can apply what you learn right away. Learn how Capella can make a difference in your life at capella.edu. Today we saw a major shift in one of the most important businesses. It's not available for trading. Let's talk about the NFL. We just learned that the NFL will allow a small list of pre-approved private equity firms to buy up to 10% of a given franchise, although the NFL itself may take a small cut of their gains. Given just how dominant the NFL is in the ratings department, there's a lot of interest in what the deal means for the league. Luckily, we have one of the best owners in the league with us tonight, Clark Hunt. He's the Chairman of the Kansas City Chiefs to explain what it means. Mr. Hunt, welcome back to May Bunny. - Thanks very much, Jim. It's great to be on with you this afternoon. - It's great to see you again, sir. You are on the special committee of owners that was looking into this possibility. You are a family person. I regard the league as family. Why would you want an entity that is really purely about money to maybe interrupt or be part of the family? - Well, you're exactly right in that our committee's done a lot of work over the last year. And this is something that we've been considering as a league for five years when some institutions started investing in other sports leagues. We just felt it was the right time for the NFL. We're definitely taking a baby step, limiting the investments to only 10% of each franchise. We think the capital will be very helpful to teams as they look to grow their business and improve the fan experience. - So let's go over. I imagine that the PE firms that are in are attracted maybe to franchises that don't have as much money as other franchises. Your franchise is very wealthy. But is it worth it to have a PE firm come in when it really may be a situation where other teams need more money? - Well, many of the franchises in the National Football League have had limited partners for a number of years. And this is really just another step in that regard in terms of adding institutional capital. And you're exactly right. That capital can be used for a lot of purposes. I think most importantly, it'll give teams that are considering new stadiums or renovated stadiums an opportunity to access a capital pool that they haven't had access to in the past. - Now, Clark, what are sometimes, if I were at one of these private equity firms, obviously they don't do anything for just the goodness of their heart. They want to make profit. Is it possible that they're thinking, you know what, a $10 billion franchise could be because this company, the NFL is so well-run, could be worth $20 billion. So I went in and that next $10 billion to $20 billion amount. - Yeah, well, one of the things that we found during the process was there was significant interest from a very broad array of private equity firms. And I think their interest is driven by several factors. First of all, investments and sports franchises tends to be uncorrelated to other asset classes. Secondly, many of these firms have already tipped their toe into investing in sports teams, both in the other U.S. sports leagues and in some cases in European soccer teams. So they had experience in the space. And so they were really excited about the opportunity to invest in the NFL and the group of firms that we ended up with is about as blue-chip as they come and we couldn't be more pleased. - These are the best of the best. I wanted to ask you, the Philadelphia Eagles that you know are near and dear to me, they open Sao Paulo, Brazil against Queen Bay. We've seen lots of games in Frankfurt. We've seen them in Britain. What is the, is that to familiarize other countries with the NFL? Is that for merchandise? Or is that to hope that one day these countries, like the NBA, will produce their own football players and maybe have teams? - Yeah, it was something the NFL has been focused on for many decades now is the growth of the game internationally. My dad back in the '90s was actually on the International Committee and was part of the effort that helped create the NFL European League. Today, NFL teams, as you just mentioned, are playing all over the globe. And that's a part of an effort to grow the game on a global basis. You know, to some degree, we have a very large market share here in North America. And if we want to keep making new fans, it's incumbent upon the league and the teams to grow their fan bases internationally. - Now, will you yourself, you've got stadium renovations as you, Arrowhead, there were residents of Jackson County where Arrowhead Stadium is located. They rejected a sales tax measure. I mean, this kind of thing is going on in a lot of different, with a lot of different teams, not as wealthy as yours. Would that be the kind of thing that you could see that one of the teams might just say, you know what, if we take private equity money, we don't have to take public money and we can become a better citizen in our towns. - Well, as I mentioned earlier, I think a lot of NFL teams will use the capital for different purposes. And that includes stadium development. In the case of the Chiefs, we're working on developing options across the metropolitan area. We think we're gonna have some very good options, whether that's a renovation of Arrowhead, or whether that's the construction of a new stadium. So I don't know that we'll actually access this new pool of capital, but I know for some teams it'll be very important. - How about the salary cap car? Could you see an envision a day when the salary cap goes up even more dramatically? Because I think a lot of fans just wanna see the best product possible. Maybe the salary cap is a limiting principle. - I'm not sure that the salary cap is actually a limiting principle. I think it's the key cornerstone of the parity that the NFL enjoys, and why there's a handful of teams every year who are capable of getting the Super Bowl and winning it. Certainly the salary cap is gonna continue to grow. It's been tied to our revenues for several decades. It's been a great partnership between the players and the clubs, and we think it's a model that really works. - Now, I know it's pretty something you obviously think the Chiefs are going to win. - I know, having been there on the minus nine degree day that you have a very special feeling when you go to a Chiefs game. There is truly a family of fans. Is it possible one day that we could see a PE from and maybe even a Green Bay like experience where we get a piece of the team ourselves? Could you ever envision instead of just being a season take over, we could own some of the Eagles, own some of the Chiefs? - Well, certainly that's an opportunity for anybody who's investing in private equity. We approved a group of four funds or fun groups today, and I think there are probably some individuals who may become interested in investing with those funds because they're going to have access to NFL teams. You're right about our experience in Kansas City. It's absolutely special. The Chiefs Kingdom is one of the best fan bases in all of pro football, and none of us are ever gonna forget that minus six day in Kansas City for the playoffs. It was great to be there with you. - I can't believe my phone still works. Well, best question. We do get reports that the NFL wants a piece of the PE's firm's profits. Can we confirm that? - So our negotiations with the firms are ongoing. Today, we took a step towards preliminary approval of the funds that you're aware of. That process will unfold over the next few months. I do think that the NFL brings a lot of value to the funds who are going to have this opportunity, and we'll certainly be talking to them about the overall economic structure. - That's the last thing. Taylor Swift was at our game. My wife watched the football game for the first time this year. Will she be back, you think? - Well, we definitely have a new fan base as a result of Taylor coming to some of our games last year. I don't know what her plans are for this year, but certainly happy for she and Travis Kelsey in their relationship. - Well, people have to know it is a very special place to go and watch the Chiefs and coach Reed and everything that you've done for the NFL. Thank you so much, Clark Hunt. Chairman she of the color of the great Kansas City Chiefs. Sir, it's great to have you on the show. - Yeah, great to be on with you. I hope to see you there ahead. - Oh, I sure hope so too. May everybody's back yet for the break. - Coming up, Kramer takes to the charts for answers. Does it all come down to Nvidia? Keep it right here. - Imagine earning a degree that prepares you with real skills for the real world. Capella University's programs teach skills relevant to your career so you can apply what you learn right away. Learn how Capella can make a difference in your life at Capella.edu. - It's time to get the world talking about black lead brands. We all have our favorites, but we can't give them all to ourselves. So if you're feeling like a black opal beauty, tell somebody. If the lip bar is giving you a lip for every drip, let them know. And if your hair is doing the do, shout that out too. Join Walmart in shouting out your favorite black lead products, creating a new world of choices at walmart.com/blackandunlimited. (upbeat music) We've had a remarkable run from the lows three weeks ago as we realized that the forced selling caused by the implosion of the end carriage rate is really temporary. Now the Fed is our friend again with rate cuts on the way starting at next month's federal open market committee meeting. At the same time though, after such a spectacular rally, Wall Street's gotten a little more discerning. Investors are no longer willing to give companies a pass for less than $10. Once we reach more zald and elevated levels, well that's what happens. The exuberance goes away. Now on a tricky moment that feels like a race against time. While the economy is slowing, we know the Fed rate cut cavalry is riding to the rescue. We just don't know how effective it will be and how bad things will get before Fed Chief J. Powell manages to turn the tide and he will. We need to figure out how quickly the economy will deteriorate and how quickly the rate cuts will work their magic. Both of these are judgment calls and we don't necessarily have enough data to decide either way. They never do at this point in what we call the economic cycle. That's why tonight I want to take the subjective judgments out of the equation for just a minute. And it brings a more quantitative approach to assessing the market. So we're going off the charts with the help of Jessica and Skip. She's the first woman on the active trader desk at Fidelity who's now Director of Investment Research at stockbrokers.com. As well as the co-host and founder of the market make her podcast. In mid April, she told us that the big cap growth stocks were about to get their group back and that the whole group bottomed a little over a week later before making another major move higher. I like that call. The end of May, she assured us that as long as the SB 500 held above its key support levels, it would be able to keep climbing. Sure enough, it's spent the next six weeks flying to the stratosphere. So what do we have to? We have to go back here. And what's your technical take on this moment? Let's start with a weekly chart of the NASDAQ 100. And we're going to go back to summer of 2021. This tech heavy index made up of the 100 largest non-financial stocks in the NASDAQ composite has turned fairly volatile. It's sold off hard in July in the first week of August. Okay, we're taking a look at this. This is a big sale of. And then it came roaring back before cooling down a bit this week. So it's like here and then here. That's pretty much describes it. As it points out that the NASDAQ 100 has been in bull mode since late 2022. I know you could say, well, wait a second. How about that? But it did go back up. It's repeatedly experienced accelerated sell-off story in the two periods of this bull market where it was cooling off and consolidating its gains. It happened last summer through last October. Then it happened again this spring. And now we're seeing she thinks similar action. See, there's consolidation. Solidation. And she thinks we're seeing that now. Could be tough sledding. And this says that we're still in bull mode. At the end of the day, an uptrend is when you're seeing a series of higher highs and higher lows. Even when the NASDAQ 100 got obliterated by the young carry trade meltdown earlier this month, it still ended up making a higher low. It's just that it got there from extremely elevated levels. So we'll hit the NASDAQ 100 and we see what happened here. And then it went back up. And this couple also notes that the NASDAQ 100 still is a bullish trading cycle. She likes to look at the 13, the 26, and the 40-week moving averages and they, because those roughly represent one, two, and three quarters, speckly in this business's measure in quarters. Right now the NASDAQ 100's 13-week, 26 and 14-week moving average are slowly higher. So here we go. 13, 26, 40. You see the slope, pretty self-evident. As long as the NASDAQ doesn't break down below the 13-week moving average of 14, 462, here we draw it, we are going here, I'm sorry, 19, 462, which is kind of close. Over 100 points below where it's currently trading. She plays at the bullish trading cycle remains intact. Of course, if the NDX falls through that floor support, then the next support level kicks in at the 26-week moving average down at 18, 7, 7, 8. So we're looking at the 26 right here, 18, 7, 7, 8, OK. And it's followed by another floor support at the higher high form, go March 18, which was 18, 464. I know this is actually very confusing here, but you have to just say that if it falls below these levels, it's going to go lower, but if it holds, it's going to go higher. I wish it weren't so-- it's not oxymoronics, just the way it is. These would represent pretty substantial declines though. At the same time, Inkscape says there's a ceiling resistance at the 1990, 1900 level, up more than 300 points from here, and another major cilia at the NASDAQ 100 all-time high of 2690. So we've got some road to ho up here. Right now, though, it's the floor support that matters. If it holds, Inkscape remains bullish at the NASDAQ 100. But at the moment, that all depends on what we hear from NVIDIA when it reports tomorrow night. NVIDIA alone weighs in at more than 8% of the index, second only to Apple, which means its earnings are indeed make or break. That's why we spend so much time talking about it. We need an NVIDIA clock. As Inkscape sees it, CEO Jensen Wong is taking a page from Taylor Swift and screaming, "Who is afraid of little or me?" "Well, you should be." Taylor Swift, I know relation. Fortunately, there's more to this market than the Magnives in seven, thank heavens. So now we check out the weekly chart of the S&P 500. Now, this is called the Equal Weight Index. This is not the usual that we see when it's just the S&P 500. The Equal Weight Index, this is the S&P as it would look in a world where every stock weighed the same as most of the actual S&P 500, which is weighted by Milwaukee Cat. Inkscape loves this chart because it tells you a great deal about the market's actual breadth, how many stocks are going up or down. In our view, this year is all about the other 493 non-Magnives in second stocks in the index. And right now, those are looking good. The 13, 26, and 40-week moving averages are slipping higher and acting as floors of support. This is actually much better than the other chart. Speaking of floors, Inkscape says the key is the support level at 6888, okay? Which was where the S&P Equal Weight peaked on March 25th. Right now, the S&P Equal Weight is above 7,000. But if we get a breakdown below that key support level, then she says, "Well, you gotta be more cautious." Once again, if we break down, we break down big, there is a civilian resistance. I'm more worried about the downside. They're upside after I look at this stuff. The make-or-break level, the S&P Equal Weight peaked at 6, 6, 9, 1. Let me go back here. Before the Fed started tightening in early 2022, if it drops below that level, well, Inkscape believes the bullish trading cycle is could put. Then again, we've got a long way to go before we're in danger of falling through that all-important floor. By the way, could put was something we also heard from Larry Williams about the market right now. Finally, how about the weekly chart, the plain old S&P 500? So here we're going, S&P 500, okay? And according to Inkscape, the S&P is in a bullish trading cycle until the evidence suggests otherwise. So what does the evidence tell us? Well, the 13-week, 26-week, and 40-week moving averages, okay, are so sloping upward, same pattern, good sign. However, Inkscape thinks this bullish cycle may be losing strength. When you look at the moving averages to vertices, that's down here, okay, this is called the MACD. It's an important momentum indicator. She sees early signs of embarrassed averages. The S-P just roared higher over the past few weeks. Well, the MACD did nothing. I would have liked to see Netco up like that. That side, as long as the S&P 500 stays above his floor support at the 40-week moving average, once again, that's that same pattern, I keep telling you about it. So as long as it stays above that, which currently stands at 5, 4, 8, 8, and Inkscape remains confident that the index remains in full mode, even if it's not as strong as it used to be. Right now, the S&P is at 5, 6, 2, 6. So we're well above that support level. On the other hand, we're within spitting distance of the key ceiling of resistance at 5, 6, 3, 8, okay? So we're very close, 5, 6, 3, 8, which represents 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the hideous decline we saw in 2022. Remember, Fibonacci, we often talk about Fib Queen, we often talk about what Carol and Barodin's doing. These are remarkable levels found in seashells, found in, you know what I saw in some crazy thing, that was pine tree cones, whatever. But the bottom line, the charts is interpreted by Jessica Inkscape, suggested that the NASDAQ went hard, the S&P 500 and the S&P equal weight remained in full mode. But for now, they're playing defenses, as long as they hold above their key support levels, everything will be fine. At the moment though, a lot of that comes down to how the market reacts in video tomorrow night. That worries me, because the stocks come in hot, after spectacular run over the past few weeks. But then again, the video is like, no, it's like no other company. And the other 499 stocks in the S&P 500, well they may just be mortal fools. Let's take calls, let's go to Seheel in South Carolina. Seheel. - Hey, damn, how are you? - I am doing great, how about you? - I am good, I'm good. Hey, James, I wanted to ask you about Disney's S&P, with Bob Iger as their returning CEO. Do you think he'll turn the company around to make it streaming? - I think they desperately need a new CEO, and I'm sure he agrees with me. They've gotta find someone fresh, good look of the industry, someone who's young, someone who's determined, hardworking, and excited about the franchise, and is willing to see the upside. 'Cause right now the stock feels very tired, we run it for the travel trust, it's stuck at the 90 level. I would be a buyer of it, it fell much further from here just because I think there's great value of the franchise. But it is a stunningly poor stock, even though it's a stunningly great company. The charge is delivered by Jessica and Skip Point, just some defense being played by the S&P. Remember, I think as long as they hold their support levels, the bull market will remain intact, but a lot is riding the market's reaction, the video's earnings tomorrow night, and remember, if it doesn't hold, the downside is substantial. Much more mad money ahead, the IPO market has seen some big winners so far this year. So why haven't we gotten more filings for the months ahead? I'm giving you my date, then Apple C-suite is being shaken up, but I'll tell you why it's not shaking my copies in the company going forward. Own it, don't trade it. In order to call us around for our tonight's edition, the lighting round, so stay with prequel. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) Every Sunday, Bill Smith from Renaissance Capital, the IPO-focused research firm that I love so much, sends out a fantastic weekly update. And this weekend, he made a great point. Of this year's 10 largest IPOs, none of them have done pretty well for investors. On average, the top 10 have given you a 33% gain from where they came from. Even the one that's down is only down less than 3%. Of course, getting a piece of the actual IPO is usually a privilege that's only enjoyed by institutional investors, not home gamers. At least not at scale. But when you look at how the 10, the year's 10 largest IPOs have done, since they started trading on the open market, I mean, eight of them are up from the first trade. And on average, they're up nearly 18%. (audience cheering) I don't know if you're up one by one, but this week got some real winners here. So far, the year's largest IPO is lineage. The cold storage warehouse reads, which I highlighted here about a month ago. I like this story, but we were still waiting on some key information like the size of the dividend, and we're still waiting on it. Lineages is up more than 10% since it came public, and almost 5% since it started trading. But it's down roughly flat from where it was trading when I covered it at the end of July. Last week, the analyst's quiet period ended on lineage, and the stock got a smattering of buy-and-hold ratings from Wall Street. I still think it has plenty of promise, but I can't endorse it until I know what the size of the dividend is gonna be. The second largest IPO this year, Viking Holdings, the parent of Viking Cruises, which was a huge win for us. It rallied from 27 when I recommended it on May 2nd to 35 and changed today. These guys dominate the River Cruise market. I think it's a great stock. Last Thursday, we spoke to CEO Tor Hagen after Viking stock fell nearly 9% in response to a pretty solid quarter. I told you the pullback was a gift, and sure enough, the stock rebounded 6.5% in the past recession. (audience cheering) Third, Amher Sports is the sporty goods and outdoor apparel company best known for Arturics, Wilson Tennis here, Solomon Winter Sports Equipment, and the iconic Louisville Slugger. Now, I told you it's still clear of this one the day after it came public. I didn't like the suboptimal balance sheet, the exposure to China, the fact that Chinese companies still are on a controlling interest. Since then, Amher Sports is up just over 5%. S&P's up about 15%. And that's after the company reported a better than expected quarter last week. They gave you a nice bounce, but call me dubious. Fourth, remember the Kazakh super app company? Caspy.KZ, which is one of the first deals of the year. That's actually been one of the best performing IPOs. In the top 10, up really 38% from both its all for price, and its first trade. Now, I wish I'd recommended this, but at the end of the day, this one's well outside my wheelhouse. Fifth largest deal of the year, one I joke about a lot called Waystar, which is a software company focused on healthcare payments. I haven't really covered it, even though it sounds like it was spun off from Waystar, Royco, from the show Succession, which I love. I'm a little aware of the private equity sponsor and the fact that the company's only borderline profitable. But it reported a good quarter earlier this month. Stocks up about 26% since it started trading. You can do a lot worse, better than a sharp stick in the eye. Number six is UL Solutions, which helps test consumer electronics and other products. Now, this is basically a for-profit spin off from a nonprofit entity, UL standard. And engagement, remember the unreaders laboratories? This still controls the business with a separate class of stock, but it's a nice little business. And I've been impressed by CO Jennifer Scanlon. She told a very compelling story when she came on the show. At this point, UL Solutions is the best before in the top 10, up 96% from where it came up, up 60% from its first trade. We've featured it twice. I bet it's not done. Next largest IPO is rubric. This is cybersecurity from that helps customers secure their data. This is the kind of unprofitable software company that went out of style in 2022, never really came back. But it's also a cybersecurity play, a much stronger cohort. Now, rubric's had a good debut and it's still up 11% from its offer price, but this stocks also down from its first trade. I'd say the jury's still out on this one. The eighth largest IPO, the jury's not out on this. The jury's back and it's like great Reddit. This one's been a pleasant surprise, but let's talk up more than 70% from its offer price. Through, though most of that was the first day pop. Since I started trading the red still up over 25%, that's not bad. And just being the CEO's Steve Hoffman, AKA spares, I think Reddit has the potential to be a good destination for advertisers, but the digital advertising market's gotten tougher late. Didn't stop Reddit from importing a pair of strong quarters since it came public. I say keep up the good word spares, you're going higher. The largest deal in the year is Esthera Labs, which makes connectivity solutions for AI and cloud infrastructure, nice buzz words there. Well, it sounds enticing. I didn't like that it spiked 72% right out of the gate. Told you so a few days later. Just seem way too expensive. If you want this kind of infrastructure, may I please tell you to buy Broadcom, which is owned by my travel trust. Sure, Esthera Labs has been nearly cut in half since then, while Broadcom's up almost 20%. Even after this decline, you know, I'm going to say wait and see. Finally, there's Brightspring Health Services, which had a bad first day from 13 to 11. But since then, it's up making it back to just under 13 at this point. Brightspring provides a broad range of healthcare services, including home health, community, and senior living, and hospice care. That's a pretty good space right now. However, it's got a major private equity backer and a big banker and a big chunk of the company also belongs to the struggling Walgreens. If the stock keeps climbing, I worry they ring the register. Walgreens under 10 today. Ouch. Now, Bill Smith of Renaissance Capital highlighted the outperformance among the top, did 10 largest IPOs as part of a broader point. Given the strength of these deals, he thinks we could have a lot of IPO activity this fall, but many companies postponing their offerings and blaming market conditions. What market conditions are they worried will get too much money for their stock? No, in fact, market conditions are pretty bad for a certain kind of IPO. The big ones tend to do well because the investment bankers underprice them in order to lure people back from the casino. But this is a rational IPO market where good companies are rewarded and smaller unprofitable companies while they get abandoned. The thing is, the venture capital firms back in many of these potential deals don't want a rational IPO market. They want an irrational one that will pay up for all kinds of slop, especially dubious money losing enterprise software companies. Bottom line, if you have a real business that's thriving, you can take it public right now, and luckily have a terrific IPO. But if you've got a loss-making tech company, there's no appetite for it, sorry. At least not evaluations that the original investors were willing to accept. And you know what? I say thank heavens because this market, well, this makes for the best out of our deal market for you at home. Bad money is back if you're ready. Coming up, hit us with your best shot and electrified fast-fire lightning round is next. Ladies, time is out for the white man. Quicker, boy, that's where I told you to put that priority, say it in the stock retailer by the buy-sells bill, just because I know the whole stock question is out of time, my step is to the plate, play the cell. (buzzer) And then the lightning round is over. Are you ready? He's getting died out of the light-round Christmas device over the Clinton and Florida clan. - Glenn, hello, Jim, thanks very much. I'm one of you. - Thank you. - For the investors, and watch you every single night. - Oh, thank you, buddy. - Thank you. - We are a bunch of blind people. We are simple investors, but we listen to you. And you make our life easier, more clearer, and look at what we should buy. - Well, you just made my day. It's a long day today, sir, and you just made my day. How can I help you? - Okay, how about ARM, A-R-M? - I like it. - I like it. The stock has come down a great deal, and yet at the same time, I think it's business actually accelerating. I want you, I think people right now are holding tenor hooks waiting for Nvidia, but ARM is a great stock to buy if Nvidia's a good number. Let's go to David in Florida, David. - Hello, Mr. Kramer. Thank you for taking my call. - Of course. - Sir, my question is this. In my raw, for retirement starting in January, I have about 4,000 shares of energy transfer EC for the dividend. Is it safe to dividend? - I believe that dividend is indeed safe. I've been back and forth and back and forth on this, and I believe that they have the coverage, and it's in the expense of stock, and I like to pipeline companies very, very much here. Let's go to Joe in New Jersey, Joe. - Hello, Mr. Kramer. Thank you for taking my call. - Of course, Joe, what's going on? - I just want to let you know we've been fishing them and have gone inlet off the dock, and we've been catching a lot of, a lot of flute, a lot of keepers. - I am glad, you know what? I caught a great, I caught a forget the other day. My wife wouldn't let me cook it. But whatever, that's neither here or there. How can I help you? - Okay, I need a dividend payer for my portfolio, and I just want to know if a paycheck is a buy. - Okay, paychecks is funny. Every time it goes down, I tell you to buy it. And every time these analysts don't like it, they hit it. And what happens, it comes up to smell like a rose. I think paychecks with a 3% yield is a buy. I would buy some here, and then wait for some analysts to knock it down by even more of the companies and excellence companies. I am a client. - Right here in New Jersey, Gregory. What are we gonna do, Jim? How you doing? How you doing? - I'm having a long day, maybe a good day. We've had some cars, we've said some nice things. I like a little Shakespeare at the top. I've brushed up on that, and how can I help you? - Well, I called you a couple months ago, talking about RTX, and it looks like we're at all time high, just six cents away. The question I want to ask you is, is this going to be affected? Is the stock price going to be affected? - It's not. - It's not expensive. - Bye, Bob, I'm sorry. Connected by... Okay, whoa, whoa, let me just say this about RTX. When the stock went down really badly because they had to recall certain engines, the company bought a ton of stock, and it was really one of the greatest things that Greg Hayes has ever done. Now, Greg has stepped down, and we've got Chris Callio's in there. I think he's doing a terrific job, 21 times earnings. I like it very much. I like to defend stocks, and this one's my favorite, and that, ladies and gentlemen, the conclusion of the lightning round! (buzzer) - The lightning round is sponsored by Charles Schwab. Coming up, the end of an era at Apple. Kramer takes on the big change coming to Cupertino. Next. (crowd cheering) - Apple stock briefly got rocked this morning. After we learned that CFO, Luca Mysery, one of the best in the business, is Rotari, Lucas the Hero. He's been the steward of Apple's massive cash ward, and he's done his best to add value for all shareholders. His best being much better than almost every other CFO out there. So what happens to the stock upon news of his retirement? Well, Apple goes down a buck and a half in pre-market trading, and we get a host of notes saying that Luca's decision is either a mild negative for the stock or a real negative, a reason to be worried, and a cause of disappointment, and concern. It's been 10 years for Luca, a little longer than the average CFO term. A period where Apple's revenues have compounded an 8% annual clip while it's earnings compounded at a 50% clip. Apple's market capitalization is spending more than six times from 547 billion to nearly 3.5 billion. Up a trillion dollars today, 547 billion to 3.5 trillion. My stream's been incredible at planning the success of the service revenue stream, which is now close to 100 billion. He's helped grow the company and keep emerging markets like India, Turkey, Thailand, Malaysia, Brazil, and UAE, which increasingly all been put together are becoming a real force. I'd argue he's been a genius when it comes to buy back stock to always purchasing it when it's right, not just repurchasing shares by road, the way most CFOs do it. Given that history, that a resume, of course, investors don't want to see him resign from the CFO job, even so go on to lead Apple's corporate services team. The sell-off made sense, but then the next C&O, total crazy down, the stock goes higher. If you're trading down from that buck-50 level, that's right, it rallies. And the Dorothy actually closes up 85 cents. It's a huge turn. Then I think to myself, well, why shouldn't it rally? This is not just any company. This is Apple. The company has a successor all lined up, of course. And that is Kevin Parek, who's been at the company for 11 years. Currently as the vice president of financial planning and analysis, he handles benefits, finance, investor relations, market research. He's already known by many analysts. I think this is the most seamless possible transition that I can recall. And it's still one more reason why Apple's worth so much money. It's what other companies wish they could do. You can't sleep well at night if you have a portfolio of tech stocks, but Apple's made it as easy as possible this time. Oh, and it is typical with Apple. There's also an upcoming event, September 9th, when the new iPhone will be revealed. Tremendous excitement about the next iteration. We're all wondering what are two different. It will be extended battery life, a better series. Integration of chat, GPT, or something else that we haven't even imagined yet, which is what I like the most of. In the midst of an endless parade of commentators who want you to trade wamajama, many of whom make money if you trade, there is Apple. The one and only stock that's run the way you want a company to run, which is why I always say, own it, don't trade it. I can't think of a thing Apple does wrong when it comes to running the business day to day, and I know that we could play a big role in that. The highest compliment I can pay, I bet Kevin Park will do exactly the same. I like to say this always in one market somewhere. I promise I'd find it just for you right here. I mean, money, I'm Drew Kramer. I'll see you tomorrow. (upbeat music) All opinions expressed by Jim Kramer on this podcast are solely Kramer's opinions and do not reflect the opinions of CNBC, NBC, Universal, or their parent company, or affiliates, and may have been previously disseminated by Kramer on television, radio, internet, or another medium. You should not treat any opinion expressed by Jim Kramer as a specific inducement to make a particular investment or follow a particular strategy, but only as an expression of his opinion. Kramer's opinions are based upon information he considers reliable, but neither CNBC, nor its affiliates, and/or subsidiaries warrant its completeness or accuracy, and it should not be relied upon as such. To view the full Mad Money disclaimer, please visit cnbc.com/madmoneydisclaimer. Imagine earning a degree that prepares you with real skills for the real world. Capella University's programs teach skills relevant to your career so you can apply what you learn right away. Learn how Capella can make a difference in your life at Capella.edu. [BLANK_AUDIO]