Cooler, some showers and thunderstorms....
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DayWeather Podcast
9.4.2024
Welcome to Wednesday, September 4th, 2024, your day with the podcast brought to you by conversecountitourism.com. Beautiful landscapes, historic sites and unique downtowns, await visitors, the Douglas and Glen Rock, Wyoming. Plan your visit at conversecountitourism.com. Well, if you love the weather, you'll certainly love this cloud. Look at that. You couldn't have a better heart-shaped cloud than that yesterday. More clouds, though, are going to be coming on in as a trough of low pressure coming from the Pacific Northwest will be sweeping through. Once the system goes by, though, we don't see much happening for a while, so this is your day and into tomorrow morning is going to be your best chance of getting some precipitation for a bit, at least on a widespread basis. We're going to go right back to high pressure and dry pleasant weather conditions for the weekend, and well, in the next week, there's really no significant weather system in the West as we get into the weekend and next week. We also have a brief lightening update for you. The sea surface temperature anomalies, definitely in week lightening mode, and will be for a while longer. We'll talk about, though, how things are probably going to change as we get to the end of the year, and that's going to affect things. The moisture did start to really increase across parts of northern western Wyoming late yesterday. There's some shower activity in the Oregon buttes area, and radar this morning is showing some light shower activity and satellite imagery. You'll see here in a moment showing a lot more in the way of clouds because of this guy right here. It doesn't look like much, but this little wave is coming through bringing cooler air and Pacific moisture with it as high pressure retreats to right along the west coast. This little low, as evidenced by the satellite imagery right here, is going to be right on top of Wyoming, parts of the Dakotas, southeast of Montana, then sliding east-southeast this way through the course of the next 24 hours or so, and there's a good amount of moisture with it. The precipitable water is fairly impressive, so clouds, rain showers, and a little bit of thunderstorm activity is going to be with this system. As we mentioned yesterday, this is generally Pacific moisture right here. There's really not much of a connection to the subtropical moisture flow, so this is going to not be the super deep subtropical moisture. Pacific moisture nonetheless enough to produce a little bit of weather. Showers, and here is the thunderstorm forecast as we go through the afternoon and evening hours. There will be scattered showers and thunderstorms in many locations. Then the system heads off to the southeast, but between today and tomorrow, this is where rainfall is going to be most likely. The gray, green, and blue areas show where the best chances will be that you might get some measurable rain. Hopefully, you'll be under one of those clouds that produce some needed rainfall. You can see that west of this low, there's just nothing. Very dry air resides here. Very dry air moving into Arizona, western New Mexico, as the subtropical moisture is going to be that way in the days ahead. Temperature-wise, we'll cool off a bit. Temperatures will cool off along in east of the divide. Very warm under the high pressure along the west coast. We're going to see this setup where the cooler weather is going to be on the other side of the U.S. and the warmest weather will be on the western side of the U.S. High pressure will build up again across the Great Basin along the west coast. We'll continue to have these little Pacific waves come in, but they're weak. We'll go into the ridge, go up over around it, and then just feed into the deeper trough in the Great Lakes in the northeastern United States. So we end up with a temperature regime by this weekend like this. Well below average, September temperatures across the eastern side of the nation. But you can just divide to have a line here that just cuts North American half, really, in terms of where the heat will be. So relative to the 30-year averages, it'll be very cool here, very warm here, quite the contrast. And we think this is something I think that is going to go for a bit. Probably seven to ten days or so where the cooler weather, relative to average, will be in the east, warmest in the west. This will also mean when you're warm like that, you're just not going to have much precipitation. This is all the way through next Thursday. So this is the 12th of September. We have lows trying to attempt to come off the Pacific. As we showed you yesterday, this northern Pacific jet stream is getting more active, but this high pressure ridge is robust and will kind of hold back these Pacific waves and weaken them a bit. So from this, basically, from this Friday through next Thursday or next Friday, this configuration of lows off the west coast, high pressure in the west, and trough in the east will hold firm, kind of a log jam. So we'll get into a pattern where there just really won't be much in the way of significant weather. And look at that. This is the five-day forecast from Monday of next week to next Friday. So a little bit of activity in the form of some isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly from these Pacific waves coming through. But look at this, it's like someone took a ruler and just drew a straight line from the subtropical moisture from the Gulf Coast and Central and Southern Mexico through the Gulf Coast, through the Florida Peninsula, and out. So there's going to be some tropical waves, maybe some tropical storm activity here, but we're looking at a lot of dry air over spreading the lower 48. So we talk about a quiet week of weather, exception Gulf Coast region in Florida. The rest of the United States, a lot of Canada, that's a very quiet weather pattern, not much happening. Now eventually the dam will break later in the month towards early October, and we'll start to see that North Pacific take more action in the west. But for an extended period of time, good seven to ten days, the weather's going to be a real snoozer. This is all the way out to the 17th of September. So we're starting to see the weakening high ridge here. The lows starting to have more of an impactful push into the Pacific Northwest. And eventually these fronts will kind of come in and break down this high pressure ridge, but it's going to be a bit before that happens. Let's talk about sea surface temperature anomalies, because this is going to play into the long range winter forecast and the fall forecast. These are the current sea surface temperature anomalies, where you see red or orange, water temperatures are above the 30-year average, blue and green means below average, white means right on the average. And a couple of things stick out. We still have a warm Atlantic basin, despite the fact that the hurricane activity just is not kicking into gear like it was expected to do. We have these warmer water temperatures here in the north Pacific. This will play a role later on. So will these warmer water temperatures here as we progress into fall and winter? Look at the cold up here though. That's interesting. That's going to be something to watch. But here's your La Nina. This is not a robust La Nina at all. It's certainly weak, but it's there. And if you look at where we were a year ago, look at the difference. This is how you need to keep in mind all the time how dynamic the ocean basins are and they go through changes. And just in 12 months time, we were in a strong El Nino in early September 2023, but it's gone away completely. They're right along the equator. So what's going to happen going forward? Well, when we take a look at the heat content, we're certainly in a La Nina status. Now, it's it's not terribly strong. To be a La Nina, you need to be negative 0.5, which is where we are. Now, we had a stronger dip in the spring. If you notice, I want you to kind of pay attention. This is really important to understand when we shift in the western United States, especially in the interior West, from wet cycles to dry cycles. What you really don't want to see happen is your El Nino go to La Nina in spring. And that's exactly what we saw. The El Nino faded very quickly in January and by February into March and April, look at the heat content. It just dropped off. And that is one reason why, a big reason why a lot of the interior West went to dry, droughty conditions. You never want to see that change over in spring or late winter into spring. And that's what happened because that is a dry signal. We've maintained this week, lighting you here through the summer season and will continue it in the fall. What will be interesting to see is we may see see this reversal that went from orange warm to cold in this time range, January, February, to March. We may see the opposite happen in 2025. But instead of going orange to blue, it'll go blue to orange, which is a good signal for next spring. And we say that because what we can show you here is over the next three months, the sea surface temperature anomaly for for October. This is the forecast from the new Canadian seasonal model that just came out. So you can see the the coolness, the La Nina right here in October. There it is in November kind of strengthening a little bit into the month of November. But if we were to jump forward to next March, look at that big warm up. So basically, La Nina is here. It's going to get a little bit stronger in October and into November, probably in December, November, early December reaches its peak. However, between January and February into March, it's gone. And we actually see some red and orange here of it warming up. So there's other factors playing into the forecast, but La Nina, pretty confident that once we get past December, it'll be on the way out. And that changing, that dynamic of it going from one phase to another is going to play a big role in the winter forecast, especially as we get into right around the new year into spring of 2025. Have yourself a good Wednesday. We'll see you tomorrow.