Every week we'll take a look at my favorite picks on Underdog!
Want to see my rankings?
https://www.thefantasyfootballadvice.com
Join Our FREE Discord Here:
https://www.thefantasyfootballadvice.com/join-the-discord
Sign up for my FREE Newsletter:
http://eepurl.com/iN9DkQ
Want to do a draft on Underdog?
Sign up for your first account today with promo code: FFA
You'll Get:
My Redraft & Underdog Rankings for FREE (Updated Daily)
A deposit bonus of up to $250
My Underdog Draft Strategy App
My Premium Underdog Articles!
(You'll get an email with your login info the morning after you sign
Time Stamps:
0:00 Intro
0:10 Free Rankings
1:21 Diontae Johnson
3:03 Devin Singletary
5:00 Javonte & Jaleel
6:56 Justin Jefferson
9:21 Zack Moss
12:13 James Conner
14:30 Outro
What's going on guys it's Nick here back on that video week one is finally here So you know we have to go over my favorite picks We are eight and two through the first two games of the season. We've already hit on an 8x entry So we are already rocking and rolling if you want to get on the action for week one Then make sure you're signed up for underdog And if you don't have an account yet all you I do use promo code FFA when signing up Not only will they give you a 50% deposit bonus up to a thousand dollars But you're gonna get my in-season rankings for free access to all my picks well before this video Goes live for the rest of the season plus you can get a free square in week one higher lower than 0.5 yards from dot Prescott and I'm pretty sure even people's there in Rogers They will grade that as a win that is a pretty sweet deal if you ask me also Yes, I know some of these lines are going to change when the video comes out Some might even change before the video goes live because I post them on the site first And then people take them there so the lines are going to move So if you want to get these lines what I'm saying act quickly when the video is posted also If you sign up for underdog using my promo code you're gonna have access to these picks before the video goes live Before the lines change so who do we like this week? You know, we have to start off the season with Deonta Johnson, right Deonta Johnson higher than four and a half Receptions not a very difficult line from to get to you know that he's gonna be the focal point of the offense Relatively even spread here There's actually not a ton of games in week one that have a massive spread and the biggest one that was New England and the Bengals That one's even closing so I think we only have like two games that are over touch down So a lot of close games expected. We're still gonna have some blowouts of course But many of these games are expected to be close. We shouldn't think too much about Game script going in one direction or the other too heavily in these spots But it's still a panther as I still do have one of the little win totals the season So it wouldn't be a shock if they were trailing that would be a positive 40 on Ted Johnson racking it perception But even if that does not happen one concern We can have is that you know the the Saints do have good corners. The problem is they typically really shut down like Prototypical X wide receivers, you know your guys that are like 215 pounds always lining up, you know on the outside trying to win deep down field not necessarily Intricate route runners, but you're bigger prototypical X receiver. That is not down to Johnson He still plays the X, but he's more of a shifty receiver Also, the Saints run a ton of man coverage Yonta Johnson is one of the best man beaters in the NFL He's significantly better against teams that play man coverage and again the X wide receiver and a Dave can Alice offense Dave can also turn this team around really elevate the play of Bryce Young I think this one's a no-brainer. I think you know 70% of the time he's gonna hit higher on four and a half receptions here Second one Devin's single Terry higher than 49 and a half rushing yards I do think there's a chance that some of these backup running math can get some run later into the season And I do think Tyrone Tracy Jr. Like has a chance to be good Guaranteed no, but I think that like as he develops as a running back as he develops just really as an NFL player He's gonna be mixed in a lot more as we get into the middle midway point later portion of the season But not only is he a rookie He's a raw rookie the running back position and he's a raw rookie at running back coming off an ankle sprained that we thought Originally who's gonna end this season so not expecting very much of a workload for Tyrone Tracy Jr. And week one even if he is active if he's inactive We've got basically no talent behind Devin Singletary. They've come out and said he's basically gonna be featured now There's no actual feature running max the NFL anymore besides Maybe Christian McCaffrey, but even McCaffrey coming off this calf injury. He might not even be featured So they're basically no feature backs. So whenever we find a running back that can get to 80 85 if we're lucky percent of these snaps in this game of the touches in this backfield We can feel pretty confident about the workload here the Giants aren't good But this is a winnable game for them and let's be honest Singletary and Malik neighbors who also going to they have no Tedenza consequence all their backup receivers are just kind of role players They have no talent behind Singletary like these two were gonna have a huge portion of the total workload 49 and a half yards I mean what do you think they're running for less than 70 yards over the course of the game? Do you think the running max is gonna have less than 60 like he's gonna have the opportunity to blow past this number? I wouldn't say them supremely confident in the Giants getting up and closing in this game But as long as this game stays relatively close and I think it's a one and a half point spread It should be within striking the distance for both teams So you have Sam darling the other side, you know, you don't have to her cousins anymore I just think game script wise opportunity wise is a very very fair line. I take higher on that one Next up both Denver running backs Javonta Williams Angela McLaughlin take the higher on their reception It's only two and a half for Javonta Williams one and a half from McLaughlin I think there's a realistic chance that we see 10 to 12 targets from these two combined I know that seems crazy, but we know that's what Sean Payton wants to do Why do we like running backs on this offense when they're like what the second lowest projected points for game total on the season? We don't normally like running backs when you know teams are not gonna score 10 points or win a bunch of games It's because of the receptions Sean Payton always targets running max at high rate even thinking what they had last season with smudge a p-rine Like they think about the offense last season was Denver good. No, were they fast-paced? No, did they throw the water high rate? No. Yeah, what do they still do? They led the NFL in Receptions for running backs targets to running backs. It doesn't matter if they're bad not scoring slow pace None of that matters. They're gonna throw running max at a very high rate You throw out smudge a p-rine you replace them with estimate or Blake Watson I don't know who's gonna be activated if it's estimate wheels up for this I mean I would be shocked if honestly both of these don't hit if estimate is the active one if Blake Watson is there's a Radical chance he mixes in but I think most of the like the snaps early in the season going to come from John To Williams and Jill McLaughlin and if we've got Sean Payton always turned right back Then we've got bonix who in college literally was like the check down monster to running backs It's like you've got a perfect pairing here to pass catching running backs a team that's projected to be trailing one of the you know Better game shows we can kind of predict is Seattle winning this game is staying ahead It's like it just seems like it makes too much sense. These lines are way too low I would not be shocked if they moved both of them to like three and two which would not be as ideal But realistically, I think I might still take that but two and a half and one half is criminal those are way too low Justin Jefferson Higher than 80 and a half receiving yards. I would say have less confidence in this one I still really like it. I probably have a little bit less confidence just through the fact that it's like it's Sam Donald, right? Thing is we just know the offense is good. We know that they have very creative head coaching We know that they'll put their players in position to succeed We know that last season I mean Kirk Cousins didn't play for half of the year and when they were rotating in their backup quarterbacks They were still throwing for like over 300 yards per game Look at who the past catchers are you? Don't have Hockinson to start the season. You've got Jordan Addison coming off a high ankle sprain Gonna play not gonna be a hundred percent. I mean they've been like, yeah, you know, he looks okay He's probably gonna try and make it. No one has said. Oh, yeah, he's good to go He'll be up to a hundred percent of snaps like he's probably gonna be limited in snaps limited in Effectiveness every single play in this game is gonna be designed to go to Justin Jefferson So is it gonna be hyperly efficient? Probably not but let's be honest Would you be shocked if you had 14 targets in this game and it's Jefferson He could get to 81 yards on the first play of the game just hitting on a slant route hitting deep downfield and Sam darled again I don't think he's good and I don't think he's an above average NFL quarterback But I think all you have to be in this offense is competent I don't know these are gonna throw for 300 yards But if he throws for 220 yards, who is that going to Jill and Naylor who a lot of people like and I think the talent They're on him, but who's also dealing with an injury these backup tight ends that have never commanded targets Maybe Aaron Jones gets going maybe tight Chandler gets going But it's not like they're gonna have a hundred receiving yards like everything's gonna be going to Justin Jefferson They should quadruple team him but realistically we always say that in the NFL You can't actually do it. You can't actually quadruple team a player in the NFL There's only so much you can do if they want to get the ball just in Jefferson They're going to and again. I'd be much more concerned if they didn't have a good head coach didn't have good coordinators They do they're gonna put Jefferson on the field in position to get these targets if he was on a team with an Uncreative head coach. I would be concerned to come out of this game with two catches for 27 yards And we'd be like what are you doing get the ball to clearly the best player you have on the scene I don't have that concern so higher on 80 and a half receiving yards seems a great pick to me a Lower one lower right now and honestly we should be taking more lowers because I have an insanely high hit right on lowers I originally when I posted my favorite picks like way back I don't know this is probably like a month ago and everything came out they put the line on Zach Moss at 68 and a half and I was like this is probably the best pick you can make right now because I mean Chase Brown is there I don't know if they were projecting if that's happened the line is down. It is not 68 and a half anymore It's only 47 and a half and I know that that seems easy you're like okay if T Higgins is gonna miss this game or likely he's doubtful right now is probably gonna play if Chase is probably gonna play but probably gonna be limited in both effectiveness and in just total snaps Aren't thinking he's running back some more and I think the answer that is yes, right? They're gonna use Yoshi Burton's gonna get some run. I think they still have Trent and Irwin. They're gonna kind of rotate in there I wouldn't be surprised if my kasicki see some like snaps as not even a tight end But like at receiver but anything to use Moss and they're gonna use Chase Brown more in like the receiving game I think that they're just gonna kind of elevate just like an extra like one or two targets each for them Or maybe honestly like three extra targets in total for them There's not like you know, we always think like you lose a player right and it's like oh everyone just benefit to time It's like see you can just gonna get what like seven targets So it's like you can kind of give everyone one extra target But it's not like everyone gets like three extra targets here, right? I do think they're gonna win. I believe the last time I checked they still have the highest total. I think it's at Seven and a half. So we're still projecting them to win by decent amount in this game. I Just think they're gonna split. I think that Chase Brown is also potentially the one a in this offense I Still wouldn't want to attack the Patriots defense, right? We're gonna be attacking them in terms of like just knowing the game script over the course of the season But it's not like the Patriots gonna be a team that we're attacking every week because of hyper efficiency It's more just gonna be like well, if they can't get it going on offense the opposing team will have a ton of opportunities I Don't know that the Bengals are gonna run for over a hundred yards in this game And if I think that Chase Brown is probably gonna be the more efficient running back potentially gonna be there one a then I don't see Zach Moss getting you know 15 opportunities I see him being closer to like 10 and he'd have to be relatively efficient on 10 carries to go higher than 47 and half And there's just a lot of different outs when you take to lower There's a lot of things that can happen. They can hit on deep play touchdowns You know the game can just be an absolute dud. We're just punting on either side Like there are a lot of reasons to why a player could only exit this game with seven or eight carries You know we could easily see that happen Chase Brown has 11 and that would still be a decent amount of rush attempts for the team Overall, so I don't see it 47 and a half I think it's a little bit too high, but the 68 and a half was definitely too high when I posted that one earlier Final one. We'll go over. There's a ton more on the website. You can check those out But the final goal of today is James Connor higher than 15 and a half rushing yards I am a little bit scared of trade Benson long-term. I think the team likes Michael Carter I don't actually know if it's gonna be Michael Carter or a Marty De Mercado who's activated this week It really depends on the health status of Michael Carter, but Carter De Mercado they'll be like, you know passing down backs. There'll be two-minute drillbacks Like they're not gonna be taking early down workload and they don't trust trade Benson yet Trade Benson is more of a concern midway through the season long-term when you want to be betting on these These backfields the incumbents that have rookies behind them. It's early in the season. That's why I like right now before Tyrone Tracy junior gets healthy before they really start trusting trade Benson That's when we want to be attacking these running max because they're gonna have significant workloads And I think that James Connor is gonna be like close to featured this first week Also, we think about Buffalo and it's like well, you think Buffalo's gonna win this game I think there's a chance that um the Cardinals can win, but also how would you attack Buffalo? It's on the ground, right? You don't really want to be throwing. It's the secondary of Buffalo And you also don't want to be dropping back a ton of times trying to air it out because you're just opening yourself up To a little bit more risk that just the best way for the Cardinals to win this game is to slow down the pace a little bit Run the ball keep the clock churning because you don't want too many pass-attempts You don't want too many too much volume on but for both sides. You just want to keep the ball on the ground I think James Connor can get to like 15 16 17 russian stems in this game as long as it stays relatively close He was highly efficient last season and there's efficient last season, you know, even when we didn't have Kyler Murray healthy and then when he came back, it's not like Kyler Murray was amazing when he returned He was still a little bit introduced still recovering from the torn ACL I think with with that with the threat of both, you know, tremic brides and i'm arm Harrison jr Having, you know, these extra threats on the outside. It's not gonna really allow people especially with you know, the mobility of Kyler Murray, it's not gonna allow people to really focus on James Connor. I think the rush stems will be there I think the efficiency should be there in this matchup 15 1/2 feels like a little bit low I take higher on that one. So those are some of my favorite picks in week one again Have more up on the website. So take a look at that if you have access if you do not have access All you I do is sign up for your first $100 account today using promo code ffa make a minimum 10 dollar deposit do that you're gonna get a 50% deposit bonus up to a thousand dollars You can get my in-season rankings for free for the rest of the season You're going to get my underdog picks well before the video comes out if you see the lines changing You're gonna want them before the lines change and then this week again You're gonna have the higher than 0.5 total yards per duck press got add that to anything And that's really gonna help out your eevee in week one. So that'll do a full week one Good luck to everyone this weekend, but i'll catch you guys on the next one
