What's going on guys, it's Nick here, back in the video, it's that time of year again, time for some hot takes for the 2024 season. As always, go with this video not to get 100% accuracy, if that were the goal, they wouldn't exactly be hot takes. The goal is to really just highlight which players I like the most, show the ceiling that I think they have this season, I could have very easily included these players. So if you want to just write down these players, these are also ones I love, if you've been watching the video, the reason I'm not including these players is because we talked with them last two days, but players I love, Devon H. Ann, Josh Jacobs, Ken Walker, James Conner, Cooper Cup, Terry McLaurin, Roma Dunesay, Dalton Kincaid, Jordan Love, and Anthony Richardson. Again, I've talked about those players in each of the last two videos, I want to talk about some new players in this one, but I could have included them in this one. So here are five more players I love, think have very high ceilings, would want to be going after in drafts, sit back, hit the like button, let's start things off with Garrett Wilson. I feel like I haven't talked about Garrett Wilson in a while, no indication that I no longer like him, I still love Garrett Wilson this season, he just hasn't made it into the recent videos, exceptional pick in the late first round, I love pairing him with a running back in round two, because a lot of times you get to that late second round and you're late first round and you're like, okay, should I be reaching on one of these running backs, or should I just kind of take this wide receiver value, that's there. I love taking the wide receiver value, if it's with Garrett Wilson, I think he's going to have a peak, it's about to Adams season, Rogers is one of those quarterbacks that there's a wide receiver on the team that, you know, he's not in love with, he doesn't trust fully, he's just not even going to look at them, not even like, oh, I won't target them as much, he will not even look in their direction, he will hyper focus on any way wide receiver that he trusts and that is getting open consistently, very few wide receivers in the NFL get open more than Garrett Wilson, 96% loss success rate versus man coverage, 93% loss success rate versus press, ran all but one route and above average rate last season. Among wide receivers deemed wide open on at least 30 routes last season, only Brandon Euke had a higher percentage of those routes come deep down field. The problem was quarterback play, among 139 qualified players, Wilson ranked 118th in completion rate over expectation, 137th out of 139 qualified players in receiving EPA. Think about that, I mean this man, shreds man coverage, dominates against press, fifth highest open score, second best at getting wide open, deep down field, yet he's bottom of the league in completion rate over expectation and receiving EPA, that is the Zach Wilson effect and the effect of all these other quarterbacks he's been playing with in recent years. Devonta Adams best season with Aaron Rodgers was 123 receptions, 1,553 yards and 11 touchdowns, but he also threw on a year we had 18 touchdowns and only 14 games, that was an absolutely epic season for him. I keep saying that I think Wilson's going to have a peak Devonta Adams season, so my bold prediction for this one is over 125 receptions, over 1600 yards and at least 17 receiving touchdowns. That's going to get you top three wide receiver numbers in any format, any season, doesn't matter scoring, doesn't matter how other wide receivers do, many times in most scoring formats, it would result in the wide receiver one, overall love him this season, absolutely fine taking him in the late first round, paired with the running back in round two. Next up, Derek Henry, it can't be a ceiling video without Derek Henry, Derek Henry's going to score 20 touchdowns this season, Gus Edwards had 13 rushing touchdowns last year, so do we think Derek Henry's a little bit better than Gus Edwards? Yes, over the last three years, Derek Henry has paced for 15 touchdowns per 17 weeks, but that was on a team that ranked 14th, 27th and 28th in touchdowns per game. Baltimore is probably going to rank top seven on offense this season, so probably top seven top five in touchdowns per game. No team has a higher projected win total than Baltimore, Henry averages 22.5 fantasy points per game in wins, only 12.3 in losses, only Christian McCaffrey last season had more rushing yards after contact than Derek Henry. The problem was he was running behind the second worst offensive line in terms of adjusted yards before contact, so it's like he was great. There was no drop off from Derek Henry last season, he was one of the best running backs in the NFL. The problem was he was always being hit behind the line and it's difficult, he still did it, but it's difficult to have a great season when that's happening. Everyone wants to think, "Oh, Lamar's going to see a running touchdown." No, Lamar doesn't do that. They don't run with Lamar when they get close to the red zone. They use their running backs, only 10 rushing touchdowns over the last three years combined for Lamar. Jackson and most of these are coming from outside the red zone, like he's not getting goal line. You think of Josh Allen, you think of Jalen Hertz, they're like running the ball in when they get close. That's not what they do with Lamar Jackson, they just line it up and run with the running back. This man has been a top three running back in points where he came three of the last four years, is one of the best running backs in the NFL history, showed no signs of slowing down last season, is joining a top three rushing offense and he's the only running back on this depth chart with any level of success historically. He is in a smash spot this season, elite pick and fantasy, I think 20 touchdowns is well within his range of outcomes. Next up, Patrick Mahomes will break the passing yard as record and if our record is five thousand four hundred and seventy seven passing yards in a season, it's going to take three hundred and twenty three passing yards per game to beat that. Mahomes came within 15 yards per game of that number three different times in his career. I think this year sets up beautifully to be his best. Xavier Worthy is not Tyree Kill. I don't want to like confuse people and think that I'm saying that he's not, but he is the fastest player in NFL history, him and Hollywood are finally going to stretch defenses in a way that you know, Hardman, MVS Watson simply have not been able to do in recent seasons. Rice really turns it on down the stretch last year and he's going to provide, you know, really consistent security blanket for Mahomes in that short intermediate area of the field and if you combine, you know, Rice and Kelsey, they're going to crush it in the middle of the field, especially while, you know, Hollywood worthy are really stretching defenses. Defense is going to be terrified of the deep ball this season that's going to open everything up underneath. He's going to be highly efficient this season. I feel like people kind of forget the ceiling that Mahomes does have just because he had by far the worst season of his career last season. His passing yards per game were twenty three lower than the next worst season. It was his worst season for touchdown percentage, highest interception rate, his adjusted net yards per pass attempt were shockingly low, worst of his career. But that's what happens when, you know, it takes Rishi Rice about half a season, if not a little bit more, to really get going for them to actually trust him in the offense. And so after Travis Kelsey, your most targeted players last season were Justin Watson, Pacheco, MVS, Noah Gray, Tony Sky, more, that's terrible. So he's in line for a massive efficiency boost this season. And remember, the year before last year, he threw for 5,250 passing yards despite his top targets behind Kelsey that season being Juju, MVS, McKinnon, Hardman, Noah Gray, Justin Watson and Skymore. He's truly only had Kelsey these last two years. And so now having three competent wide receivers, that's going to be absolutely insane. I think he hits 5,500 passing yards this season, that would very likely result in him being the quarterback one overall, basically only out for that not happening as if one of these hyper mobile quarterbacks just like drops a nuke, right? If one of Anthony Richardson, James Daniels, I guess, but that's probably a little bit unlike him to drop the total nuke and be the quarterback one, you know, Josh Allen, Jalen Hertz, Kyler, I guess you throw in there. If one of them has like 17 rushing touchdowns over 1,000 rushing yards and gets good efficiency through the air, they're probably going to be number one, but most years, you break the passing record, you're going to be the quarterback one in fantasy. I think he's set up beautifully this season and the floor is amazing. You know, it's going to get it done every single week. If you're in a passing yards bonus league, oh my goodness, gonna get a bonus every week. Next one, if you start Chuba Hubbard over the first six weeks of the season, then Jonathan Brooks from week seven on, you will have top 10 running back production across the entire season, not saying combining their points while they're like both playing. That would be cheating. I'm saying you straight up start Chuba at your running back to spot weeks one through six. Then you start Brooks at running back to week seven on, you'll have top 10 running back production. Brooks is going to miss the first four weeks, which, you know, is going to make it a little bit easier for you to draft him this weekend. Like his ADP was already awesome. It's going to drop probably another round this weekend, which is going to be absolutely insane must draft this weekend. But what I'm saying is this combo is a must draft. It's so easy to get Jonathan Brooks in draft right now. All you got to do is reach around around and a half. I will let you reach two rounds ahead of ADP to secure Chuba. If you get Brooks, my guess is that they were projecting Brooks to return somewhere in like week three, week four, and they're like, you know what, why risk it like let's just keep him on the pup, have him out these first four weeks, he can return in week five, why risk returning a week or two to early, get him out there in week five. So I think he plays a week five. I think he ramps up in week five, week six, and you're still going to want to start Chuba Hubbard. But then I think it's going to shift over to Brooks a lot more starting in week seven on week seven through 10. They play the commanders, Broncos, Saints, and Giants before going on by in week 11. Those are winnable games. Those are great games for the Panthers because the Panthers aren't going to win a ton of games this season, but in games that they can win, they're probably going to lean on Brooks at least to the high value touch and that's what's important. Like he's going to still be ramping up during that time. He's not going to be a feature running back, I think until after the buy, but they're going to want to get him out there in red zone packages. They're going to want to get him out there on plays where they're going to use him. So even if his snap shares a little bit lower, they're not going to have him out there doing nothing. They're going to feature him when he is out there. Then after that week 11 buy, I think they fully unleash him. The matchups are a little bit tougher. They face better teams, but four of their next five games are at home and he's going to be featured a lot in the receiving game as well. So it's not going to matter too much if they happen to find themselves down a touchdown or two. Like he's going to be used in the receiving game. And so that's not too much of an issue. He was the best running back prospect by a good margin in this year's draft class and a lot of people thought he could have gone in round one, had he not been injured. But the timetable looks great for him to be ramping up in weeks five and six. Then the matchups are really good before the buy. So even though he's kind of continuing to ramp up through on those points, I think they can win these games. They can score more points. They can be ahead and so they can lean on him a little bit more. So you can capitalize massively on this just whole situation, right? Just draft Brooks at a massive discount. Like he would legitimately be a fourth round pick if he wasn't injured right now. So you're getting a huge discount on him and if you have an IR spot, I mean, he's effectively free. You use a later on pick on him, put him on an IR spot, add someone else in the meantime. But you're getting him super, super discounted. Then you just reach a little bit on Chuba. You play him and he smashes while Brooks is out. Then you play Brooks who smashes over the second half of the season, you know, maybe you run into like one or two games where you're not a hundred percent sure who to play. But that's not really a big deal. Neither one of them are going to cost you anything close to running back to value yet combined. I think they're going to finish as top 10 running backs when you combine who you would have started in each week. It's an especially powerful play for those of you planning on going hero running back this weekend. If you're planning on taking like CMC, Breeze, Beijon, one of them in round one, overloading wide receiver, quarterback, tight ends in the middle rounds. Just take Brooks and Chuba, rotate them in at running back two, you're going to be totally fine. I'm also fine doing that if you want to do it with JT, Achan, Henry, and Jacobs. You want to take one of them in round two and that should kind of give you a good spread of different ADPs for round two. Take a wide receiver in round one. If you happen to have to take a wide receiver in round one, take one of them in round two, do the same thing, overload wide receiver, get an elite quarterback, get an elite tight end, then take Brooks and Chuba and you're looking fantastic at running back to all season. Last one, Downton Johnson will have over 115 receptions this season and will finish the top 10 wide receiver in all formats. According to ESPN's open score, Downton ranks number one in open score. So do you look at the last two, three, four, five, six, or seven years? Take any sample from all of that, he ranks number one. So over the last three years, number one, five years, number one, seven years, number one. In all of those time buckets, he's number one in open score. As Jacob Gibbs pointed out, who's a great follow on Twitter, Bryce Young was terrible in his rookie season. No one's going to debate that. But as per fantasy points data, he actually had the fourth highest accuracy rate when throwing two open wide receivers last season. He was great when his receivers were open. The problem was his receivers were never open. Now he's getting the most open wide receiver in the NFL, no matter what timeframe you're looking at in the last seven years, someone who's cleared the eighth percent on success rate versus man, press zone coverage last year, all green route tree, as per Matt Harmon over reception perception.com and we're pairing it with Dave Canales. He resurrected Gino Smith, Baker Mayfield. I think he can do the same with Bryce Young. Everyone wants to throw up Bryce Young. These things are complete bust. It was one year with bad coaching. No one could get open on offense. What are you supposed to do? Like seriously, as a rookie, what are you supposed to do when you drop back and no one's open? Like a sack or throw a pick or throw it away. I mean, those are your only three options, right? So when you throw it away, people be like, wow, this kid's terrible. It's like, well, if no one's open and all these receivers stink, what am I supposed to do? He's going to hyper focus on Deontae Johnson this season. I think this is a smash spot, 115 receptions, top 10 wide receiver in all formats. So good luck to everyone who is drafting this weekend. Tomorrow's video is super important. Please watch tomorrow's video. If you are drafting, it's the news video. We're going to go over all of the latest news over the last week and how it's really impacting things lately. And if you want to use my rankings, you want to print off a cheat sheet or use the custom rankings, which you can cross players off as you draft, you can get all of that on my website, thefennisfootbloodvice.com. So if you're still watching this far, be sure to leave a like really helps me out. And again, if you're not subscribed, why don't you do so? Hit the bell icon and get the videos for free. That my friends. to this one, and thanks for watching. [BLANK_AUDIO]
