Montana News

Campaign Beat: New poll puts Sheehy in the lead, new audio puts him in the hot seat

Tim Sheehy leads Jon Tester in a new Senate race poll. Audio of a racist comment from Sheehy surfaces. Campaign ads feature familiar themes. And, the two leading candidates for governor may soon square off to debate. Campaign Beat is back for the general election!

Duration:: 14m
Broadcast on:: 06 Sep 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

(upbeat music) - Next up, campaign beat, a weekly political analysis program produced by Montana Public Radio. Campaign beat is hosted by Sally Mock and features Lee newspaper, state news bureau chief Holly Michaels and Rob Saldine of the University of Montana's Mansfield Center and Political Science Department. Here's Sally. - Holly, we're two months out from the general election and all eyes are on Montana's U.S. Senate race between incumbent Democrat John Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy. And an AARP poll out just this week shows Sheehy with a healthy eight point lead. And that's a big change, Holly, from earlier polls showing the race in a statistical tie. - It is, Sally, from the kinds of polls that we look at in this race that aren't overtly partisan one way or the other, this is the biggest lead Sheehy has had. Like you said, he's up eight points. That's if you're looking at the full ballot. So that's including third party candidates. There is a margin of air in the poll of four points. So things could be a little closer than that, but it's still a divide between the two. One notable thing from the poll is she has a 16 point lead when you're looking at people age 50 and older. Well, Tester's up by just one point among voters 18 to 49. And the poll notes that older voters make up the biggest chunk of those who cast ballots in Montana. So that lead among older voters is pretty important for Sheehy. This poll does show Tester's pretty much locked down all the voters that identify as Democrats. Sheehy doesn't have quite the same support among those who identify as Republicans. And then Tester's also leading a little bit among independents, but the poll notes that the overall strong Republican lead of Montana means that Sheehy still holds that lead overall. There's also a pretty decent divide between men and women in this poll. Men break for Sheehy by about 19 points. Well, women prefer Tester by three. And then I think the other thing that really stood out to me in this poll is just how much ground Sheehy has made up in name recognition. If you remember back to polls much earlier in this race, they showed that Sheehy wasn't really all that well known, but now this poll shows that only 7% of people who responded to the poll either didn't know Sheehy or had no opinion of them. So he's definitely made up that gap. Rob, something else happened this week that could impact Sheehy's big lead. The Sharkusta News released audio of Sheehy speaking at a campaign fundraiser in Shelby last year. And he was talking about roping and branding with members of the Crow reservation. And here's the clip. - Man, I wrote the brand one every year down there. So, great a way to bond with all the evenings to be out there while they're drunk at 8 a.m. And you're rowing the others. - Rob, Sheehy is repeating for laughs a racist trope about drunken Indians and tribal leaders across the state are demanding an apology. - Yeah, it's clearly not in keeping with the kind of disposition that we'd want and reasonably expect in the US Senator. So obviously he should apologize, but of course he's a Trump acolyte. And one of the rules in Trump world is that you don't apologize ever no matter how disgraceful your behavior. So we probably shouldn't hold our breath on that one. But apart from the matter of basic decency, Sally, it's something of an unforced error. The crows have been supportive of Republicans in the past and there are votes down there that he presumably is trying to win. Though that said, it's also likely the case that comments like this are well received by certain elements of the contemporary Republican base. So it may not be as big of an electoral liability for him as some may think. But zooming out, Sally, you know, this to me is another example of Shihi just not being a very good candidate. He's probably better than Rosendale would have been and he's certainly better than a number of recent GOP candidates around the country, but that's a pretty low bar. And aside from Shihi's central casting appearance and his status as a veteran, there's been a lot of cringe. You know, we've talked about a lot of the things that have emerged about Shihi. There were plenty more over the summer and now there's this. The thing is though, that none of this stuff seems to be making much of a difference. So I'm not sure that we should expect this incident to be any different. At the end of the day, wearing the right jersey and rattling off a few standard issue talking points that have apparently been distributed to Republicans across the country, that might be enough. And Shihi at least sure seems to think it will be. - Well, speaking of standard issue talking points, a holly a pack supporting Tim Shihi. He has this TV ad on the air now. - Tim Shihi is fighting to restore common sense to Washington. - And watch Montana's think is common sense. It's pretty simple. It's not complicated. They want a secure border, safe streets, cheap gas. - And Tim Shihi will fight rising inflation by supporting policies that reign in and out of control federal spending, lower taxes and repeal job killing regulations. Call Tim Shihi and thank him for putting Montana families first. - And this ad holly hits the two themes Republican candidates across the country are running on and that's border security and inflation. - Yeah, Sally Laker. I've just said there's Republican messaging that we see across the country right now, and this is right in that wheelhouse. This ad is part of what's doing the workout. They're raising a Montana's awareness of who Tim Shihi is. There's in tens of millions of dollars in advertising. I think you can't turn on the TV without just seeing pretty much only tester and Shihi ad. So this ad is part of that. It's kidding on those issues that we've seen the ranked top of mind for Montana voters in this election. You hear about the border and immigration in this ad and then that AARP poll we talked about earlier. And this is similar to I think every other poll I've seen this cycle. Immigration and border security are ranked as the number one issue for voters in the state. It's not even close and it's especially critical to those 15 older and among Republicans. Then second and third in that poll are inflation and rising prices and then jobs in the economy, which like you said is also very prominent in this ad and fits in with that nationalization. On the border Montana is Northern border in state obviously, but the Southern border has really dominated this Senate race so far here. And I think it's fair to say there are major issues of fentanyl in the state that comes through Mexico, but in ads like these, we just see that classic border wall image we've all become familiar with. And it feels really more nationally focused not about any issues we're seeing specific in Montana. Border and immigration has also really permeated some of the down ballot races. I was at a campaign event for Governor Gray, Jim Forte last month. And even for his race, a really large chunk of the questions asked of him. We're also about immigration policies in the Southern border. And this is an issue where Tester works really hard to point out in this race that he parts from his party nationally on some things related to border policy. But it's not really clear how much of that message is actually getting through. And then on the economy, this is one that's been really interesting for me to watch this cycle. If you're covering a state level Republican candidate event, you're gonna hear that the economy is great, it's booming, things are looking really well in Montana. But then when you switch over to a federal level candidate like she, you're gonna hear them say that things are really not looking good. They're very critical of Harris type, her policies to testers and say that they're the reason things aren't so rosy, especially pointing to inflation. And it is clear from the polling that these issues really resonate with voters. So I think we're gonna keep hearing about them. I think that's pretty frustrating for Democrats who are hoping things like abortion and health care might drive some turnout this fall. But we're seeing those issues rank much, much lower in the polling. It is a contrast in messaging between the governor's race and the US Senate race, that's for sure. Rob, John Tester has an ad out, once again, emphasizing his Montana roots. - This barn was built by my granddad and his neighbors. Then they built another one down the road. Montana has always been about people looking out for each other. But wealthy newcomers frankly don't care what happens to the rest of us. They're driving up home prices and rent, crime in fentanyl or exploding in our communities. It's high time to lower housing costs so we can continue to raise our families here. I'm standing tough against anyone trying to change Montana's way of life. I'm John Tester and I approve this message to defend Montana always. - And Rob, this is a common theme Montana Democrats are running on that the ultra rich like Tim Sheehy are trying to take over and destroy, quote, "the Montana way of life." - Yes, Ali, and there was a time when this works pretty well, but it does seem a little bit like the Democrats fairy dust on this issue seems to be wearing off a bit in recent cycles. I think the problem from Montana Democrats is that the composition of the parties at the national level has changed. We've had a realignment and it's a realignment that's been happening slowly for a long time but has accelerated pretty quickly during the Trump years. The basic dynamic is that Republicans have made major inroads into the working class and they're absolutely dominating rural areas. Democrats meanwhile have become the party of college educated professionals. And while this shift has boosted Democrats in places like Colorado and Virginia and in our most dynamic urban centers, it's worked to the advantage of Republicans in places like the Dakotas and West Virginia and increasingly Montana. So this is the challenge the state's Democrats face and it's not altogether clear that trotting out the old talking points is going to do the trick given this realignment of our parties and given that our politics has become so nationalized and so focused on culture and so forth. That said, Tester has a lot more authenticity and credibility on this stuff than does the national party. One other thing I noted here, Sally, the biographical bit at the beginning. On its own terms, it's kind of good stuff and it hits on a core element of who Tester is, why he's had this longstanding connection to Montanans and it speaks to one understanding about what it is that makes Montana special. But if I were on the Tester campaign, I'd be a little nervous that they feel the need to run this ad now in September, 2024. It makes me wonder if the Tester campaign has reason to think that voters have forgotten why they like John Tester because you'd hope, I think, that after all these years that you could count on that story, the biographical details of who John Tester is, that's already baked into the cake. You'd hope that those kinds of things aren't the type of thing that you have to be spending money and time on at this point in the campaign. - Lastly, Holly, it looks like the two main candidates for governor incumbent Republican Greg Jim Forte and Democratic challenger Ryan Bussey may meet on the debate stage next month. - Yes, Holly, we had some drama around the potential for a debate in the governor's race. Jim Forte, after not having committed to participate when invitations for debates first went out a couple months ago, he did say on the deadline recently that he was not going to debate opponent Ryan Bussey because he didn't feel that Bussey was a serious candidate. Bussey, of course, strongly rejected that, pointing out among other things that in the last fundraising period, he brought in more money than Jim Forte did. And Jim Forte countered by saying he would consider a debate if Bussey released 10 years of his tax returns as Jim Forte had previously done to the Associated Press and Bussey had declined to do that initially. But then he turned around and quickly did release those returns and now Jim Forte said that he welcomes a debate. Those tax returns, by the way, showed Jim Forte made about $23 million between 2018 and 2022, mostly off investments. Well, Bussey showed that he and his wife heard about $260,000 a year. You know, we don't have anything firmly set in the book yet on debates, but we are looking at two previously scheduled ones, that's for Montana PBS and then Montana Television Network. That would be in October. I think it'd be pretty notable if debates didn't happen. You know, no one I've spoken with can remember a time when Governor candidates didn't debate. And those debates would be a pretty critical way in the selection for voters to learn more, especially about Bussey, and his political newcomer, and he's really trying to cut through the noise of the Senate race, the cyclone that's been hard to do. And I think voters would really see two very different men on the debate stage. You through this campaign, Jim Forte has rarely mentioned his opponent at all, while Bussey's been very aggressive in his criticisms of the governor. So I think it would be a pretty interesting debate to watch. And of course, the challenger always wants to do a debate and the incumbent would prefer not to, but we'll see what happens. Robin Holly, it's great talking politics with you again. Thanks. - Thanks, Sally. (upbeat music) - You've been listening to Campaign Beat, a weekly political analysis program produced by Montana Public Radio. Campaign Beat features Rob Saldine of the University of Montana's Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, Lee Newspapers, State News Bureau Chief Holly Michaels, and hosted by Sally Mock. Join us next week for more analysis of Montana politics. (upbeat music)