The Duran Podcast
One step closer to regional war
All right, Alexandra, let's talk about the situation in the Middle East. It looks like we are moving closer to a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. There were missiles pre-emptive. The reports are that Israel launched a pre-emptive strike against targets in Lebanon Hezbollah targets infrastructure in Lebanon Hezbollah responded by launching missile strikes on targets, military targets and infrastructure in Israel. And this has taken us to the point where we could be getting a war between Israel and Hezbollah. And of course, that could widen out to a conflict between Israel and Iran. Where are we with this latest escalation? Well, I think the key thing to take away from this is the last one that you've just made. Well, this is a major step, a further major step towards an all-out regional war. Now, we're not there yet because both sides, especially in this instance, Hezbollah, are exercising some level of restraint. And it hasn't fully broken out yet, but we are very, very much closer than we were. Now, let me just make a quick point about these missile and airstrikes. Neither side, in my opinion, is telling the truth about what exactly happened. So if we take the Israeli side first, they say that they carried out a pre-emptive airstrike against Hezbollah missile bases, 100 Israeli aircraft were used. Now, that I do believe, by the way, that was a massive airstrike, huge airstrike, by Israel. They're claiming that they've destroyed large numbers of Hezbollah's missile infrastructure, missile bases, missile positions, all of that sort of thing, then Hezbollah supposedly carried out its retaliatory strike, which had been disorganized by the Israeli attack. It was ineffectual. The Hezbollah failed to hit a single important target inside Israel. The only damage that was done was when debris fell from an Israeli missile that intercepted a Hezbollah rocket and some debris fell on an Israeli warship and killed a crewman. That's the Israeli side of the Israeli clan. Hezbollah's claim is completely different. They say that this is not a pre-emptive strike by the Israelis. Hezbollah carried out its own strike. They launched 320 missiles, plus large numbers of drones. They were attacking Israeli intelligence facilities around Tel Aviv. Their missiles on rockets supposedly got through. And the Israeli strike on them was completely ineffective. And both sides are saying that the attack on each of them was ineffective and that their own strike did massive amounts of damage. Even though in the case of the attack on Israel, we have only one person supposedly killed. And in the attack on Lebanon, on Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the Israelis, only three people were killed. So it's very difficult to get a complete sense of what's going on. We don't have alternative data information that can confirm to us what each side, whether what each side is saying is true. And I don't think either side is telling the full truth about this. The key thing to see here, let's all get drawn into exactly who struck first and what they were doing. The key figures were now getting Hezbollah launching big missile strikes on Israel and Israel carrying out very big air strikes on Hezbollah. A hundred aircraft is a huge air strike that's one of the biggest air strikes that's happened for many, many years in the Middle East, if you exclude the fighting in Gaza itself. And to my mind, when forces on this scale are operating, that tells us that we're getting very, very close now to an all-out regional war. So what is the reason for Hezbollah holding back or for Israel not continuing to escalate further? I mean, are they just not ready? Is the military Israeli military not ready to get into a full-scale war with Hezbollah? Is Hezbollah not ready for a conflict with Israel? I mean, what's the reasoning? Okay. So you have a huge escalation and then it stops and now we're going to wait for the next huge escalation. What does this spiral out of control into the full-scale war? Yes. I mean, these are if you like, you know, the first rumblings that are going to lead to the storm, the flashes of lightning before the storm breaks. Now, let's start with Hezbollah. Why are they clearly exercising some elements of restraint? Because they said so yesterday, they said that, you know, that they carried out the strike, it'd been successful. They've avenged their assassinated commander, Wat Shukra, which is what this is all about. And you know, they will, this is not the end of the story as their leader, Nasrallah has said there will be more, but, you know, for the moment, they're not going further. The reason, I think, is that Hezbollah is working closely with Iran, and Iran is not ready. Now, what exactly is playing out in Iran, we've discussed in many programs. My own view is that Iran is itself preparing for a big war, either they were ready for a big war until, you know, the Hania assassination took place. I think that they're, you know, hardening up their facilities, importing air defense systems and fighter jets from Russia. By the way, interestingly enough, we had all those reports a couple of weeks ago in the U.S. media about Iran importing air defense missiles, S-400 missiles from Russia. I have not seen any denials of that story, either from Iran or, importantly, from Russia itself. Now, you know, one mustn't jump and say that, because something hasn't been denied, it must be true, but I would have thought that if it were untrue, the Russians certainly would be denying it, and they are not. I, you know, follow the Russian media closely, I've not seen a single official denial from the Russians that they are indeed supplying air defense systems to Iran. So Iran needs to get all its forces in place. They need to get themselves ready so that when the war happens, they're ready for it. And I don't think they're ready. They feel that they were ready for it. When Hania was assassinated, and I think that they're working towards getting themselves ready for it soon, as for Israel, I think here they pop the explanations are different. Firstly, there is a division within Israel. So Netanyahu, the hard line members of his cabinet, and I suspect some hard line members of the Israeli military, they want to get their strike on Iran and their war in the Middle East as soon as possible. They're probably aware that there are preparations in Iran, and they want to preempt them. And that's where the whole business about preemption comes in. But they have political problems. Firstly, the army, the ground forces in Israel are opposed to this. And they've made that absolutely clear, as are some of the intelligence agencies. They're saying, "Look, we had a 10-month war in Gaza that has not been successful. It sapped the military, morale is low, the military has taken significant losses. We haven't achieved our mission in Gaza. We don't want to expand the war to involve ourselves in an equally grueling and difficult war against Hezbollah in Lebanon." And well, beyond that, getting into a battle with Iran. That really isn't what we want or need either. And the intelligence agencies are backing the ground forces. They're apparently telling Netanyahu, "This really isn't a good idea." So there is this tension within Israel itself. And, of course, there's also the issue of the elections in the United States, starting an all-out war in the Middle East before the elections take place, is probably not something that the current administration and the Democrats want to see. And they're putting as much pressure as they can to try to hold the Israelis back to the extent that they can. But with every day that passes, the tension grows, the flashes of lightning, just like the ones we saw over the weekend, come closer, and the thunder gets louder. And sooner or later, the storm is going to break. I cannot see any other way. Yeah, so Netanyahu wants this war. That's what it comes down to. And there's no one in the Biden White House who is capable of raining in Netanyahu. At one point in time, they tried to remove him, didn't work, and Biden ended up being removed instead of Netanyahu. But there's no understanding in the Biden White House in the State Department as to how to moderate or tone down Netanyahu's push for a war. This is the problem that the United States finds itself, and this is the problem of the Middle East right now, is Netanyahu's push for a war, and even the Israeli military. It seems like they can't find a way to stop Netanyahu's push for a conflict. The Israeli military, at the end of the day, they're going to do is Netanyahu's orders, I imagine. Yes. But they're saying that they're not prepared for an all-out conflict. Iran is preparing now for a conflict that's going to probably take some more time. Is there any way to prevent this cycle of escalation which will eventually lead to a full-on war? Is there any one or anything that can prevent this on any side? I don't think so, and this is where I have to be, you know, frank, one would like to believe that there was some way out. But as you correctly say, Netanyahu wants a war, the Israeli cabinet wants a war. We had an article a couple of weeks ago in the Financial Times, which showed how angry and bitter the arguments between Netanyahu and his generals and his intelligence people have become. So they all want, you know, they don't want a war, but Netanyahu obviously does. The people in his cabinet want a war. The government in the United States is very, very weak at the moment, and isn't really able to exert itself. The Europeans are hopeless, they have no influence over these events whatsoever. When one side in a conflict once a war, a war tends to happen, and unless something dramatic happens to Netanyahu's position over the next couple of weeks, I think the drift of war is all but inevitable. Can I just say, in terms of Netanyahu's position, I think the thing to say is it's getting stronger, he's, as you rightly say, he's seen off Biden, not Biden was ever really very and very effective Jack on him. He's seen off the more soft members of his war cabinet, they've peeled away, which has left his government more coherent and more hardline, and his poll ratings in Israel are rising. That which nice people are not aware of, obviously lots of other things are going wrong. The Israeli economy is continuing to decline, Israel's credit rating is falling, it's running into bigger economic problems, the military, or at least the ground forces, I don't know about the Air Force or the Navy, but the ground forces are unhappy. But as I said, when one person who is in the position that Netanyahu is in once a war, it's very difficult to see what can prevent it. The only thing that could perhaps prevent it is a change in the United States, a shift in policy in the United States, a decisive shift in policy whereby a new administration perhaps takes over and says to Netanyahu enough, but I don't see that. I mean, the current administration is going to remain in office apparently until January, at least that's the plan. It seems incredible to me given that all that's been said about the incumbent president and his inability to be the Democratic Party's candidate, but apparently the plan is that he will continue to be there. Even if he does step down before January, the person who would take over would be the vice president in her speech at the convention, she didn't show any sign of wanting to change or modify the current president's policies. And well, if there is a complete change of administration in January, firstly, the people who are likely to take over are probably friends of Netanyahu. But besides January is very far away. We're talking about months by which time the war will probably have already begun. Final question, what does Netanyahu gain from a war with Iran? Well, I think what he gains is I think he thinks he's going to win. This is the problem. I think he's worked himself up into believing that the regime there is very fragile, that unless if he kicks hard enough, if he provides it, he could get the United States and the other Western powers to back him, and I mean, aggressively back him to deploy the Iran air forces against Iran, I think he thinks he can win. That's always a very dangerous assumption, because I think probably he's wrong about that. But I think he thinks if he can win, if he can somehow smash the regime in Iran, well, then at that point, his position in Israel itself is secure and his wider policies greater Israel and all that can be executed successfully. His foreign minister has already brought up the idea of Britain and France participating in an attack on Iran. All right, we will end it there at the Duran dot locals.com. We are on rumble odyssey, but you tell the Graham Rock Finn and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch like the teachers we are wearing today. 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