UFC Vegas 97 Picks | Burns vs. Brady | DFS MMA DraftKings Picks
Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC Vegas 97 DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:19 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:02 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
04:55 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
06:54 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
08:58 - Outro
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(upbeat music) What's up guys, welcome to another UFC quick picks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC Vegas 97 this weekend. Sean Bernivers Gilbert Burns in the main event. 12 fights on the slate, and it should be a good one. And let's just dive right into the picks here. I'm itching to get started with my cash game play of the week, I'm going to go Gilbert Burns at 7.5K. Now Gilbert Burns is in the main event. He's the underdog in the main event. And I think Sean Brady is a fair favorite. I think the fights probably going to play out competitively, at least it projects to on paper. The fights minus 110, near pick them essentially to go the full 25 minute distance. And that's what I like most about Burns and why I like him as a cash game target. There's not a lot of win equity with the dogs on this slate. We have a lot of heavy favorites, a lot of heavy underdogs. So, paying down is tricky other. You're going to still have to do that at one spot. Burns at least is priced all right at 7.5K where he saves some salary and he still gets you access to a safe floor on paper, given that the fight should go 25 minutes or could go 25 minutes. Burns can strike competitively with Brady. He can grapple competitively with Brady and has the opportunity to put up a fair amount of points, even in a loss. Plus we know he has submission upside. We know he has damage upside. And decent inside the distance line, plus 240. So, all things considered at 7.5K, Burns is going to rate out pretty well, especially compared to the fighter's price below him, both in terms of floor and in terms of ceiling and in terms of win equity. I don't mind stacking him with Brady in cash games at 8.7K, I think that's a fine strategy to employ. I don't mind Brady in tournaments as well, but Burns is one easy place to pay down. Four cash games that saves you salary and allows you to play the other favorites you prefer elsewhere in your lineup. All right, next up my tournament play of the week. Go out on a limb a little bit here, and I'll play wrong Jew at 8.9K. Wrong Jew is actually making his second UFC debut. He had a stint in the UFC back in 2021, 2022, when he was 21 years old and lost two out of three fights coming off the road to the UFC, where he won that regional tournament and is now back in the UFC. And it's a pretty sizable favorite against Chris Padilla, who broke the slate in Padilla's UFC debut. As a short notice fill in, wrong Jew was minus 250 to win, plus 208 for Padilla. This one is, I think, going to fall a little bit under the radar and potentially for a good reason as wrong Jew, again, didn't look spectacular in his first stint in the UFC, still a young kid, still developing, and is fighting an opponent in Padilla who can grapple well, at least early on in fights. And I think that could potentially force wrong Jew to defend early, force an extended fight, which could definitely limit wrong Jew's ceiling. And that's why I don't think he's a standout at 8.9K, nor is the public going to treat him as a standout at 8.9K. What I do like, though, is in wrong Jew's most recent fight on the regional scene, he was facing a aggressive wrestler who attempted like 25 takedowns. And I really got to see that when wrong Jew was taken down, he was able to scoot back to the cage, cage walk up to his feet. A lot of times he was sprawling pretty hard on those shots. And late in the fight, he still had energy and was able to put his opponent out. So against Chris Padilla, who still profiles as an early grappler, I mean, yeah, this could go wrong, but I think if wrong Jew can defend takedowns or neutralize takedowns early, we could see him carry a significant power advantage on the feet. He likes to pressure, he's pretty aggressive. And we've seen Padilla slow down and get hurt and get knocked out himself on the regional scene. So I think like an early to mid round KO is on the table for wrong Jew at probably a lower ownership than would be typical for a fighter with these kind of metrics. He's again, minus 250 to win, minus 110 to win into the distance. And I'm not sure he's gonna be played too much at 8.9K. This range is pretty strong. And I do like other fighters in this range, but Chris Padilla looked great in his UFC debut in like four minutes. I think this is a different matchup, one that could play out differently, odds are suggesting it's gonna play out differently. And if it does, there's a good chance that it comes with early or mid round damage success from wrong Jew on the feet, could lead to a stoppage. At 8.9K, I think he's an interesting tournament option, especially as a semi-contrarian target there in the 8K range. Don't mind being overweight to the field on him this week. All right, next up, my salary play of the week. I'm gonna roll with Kyle Nelson at 7.6K. Who might get some love? He's going to be in a popular fight with Steve Garcia. Garcia is the favorite there. And I understand why Garcia is gonna be very chalky. Garcia has just kind of mauled a bunch of opponents recently for consecutive early knockout victories. Garcia is minus 155 to win inside the distance in this fight. Could be a banger, minus 610 inside the distance overall. So this could have been my matchup of the week as well. But I don't mind Nelson at 7.6K, given that he's the underdog still in a fight that's minus 600 to 10 inside the distance. And more importantly, Garcia's had a lot of success with early damage where Kyle Nelson has shown to be pretty durable. He has been knocked out once in the UFC in round three by quarantine, but that's the only time he's been knocked down in his UFC career. And more importantly, despite winning by knockout four times in a row, Steve Garcia has actually been knocked down five times in his last six fights. So Garcia, which oftentimes comes with being aggressive offensively, you're lacking a little bit defensively. And yes, Garcia will still have the ability to hurt Kyle Nelson early, but I think Nelson has the ability to hurt him as well. And of the two, Nelson's probably been the more durable fighter of the two and may even have the more pure power. Garcia is the more aggressive fighter, the more reckless fighter, but don't count Kyle Nelson out there at 7.6K, good inside the distance line plus 215, may be popular, but will also provide leverage against a more popular Garcia. So there's not a lot of win equity below the mid range. Nelson is one fighter that I'm eyeing for win equity for finishing upside, saves some salary, good matchup to target. And I think Nelson has sneaky KO potential there, my underdog play of the week. And finally, my matchup of the week, I'm going to roll with Nathan Fletcher versus Zigamantes Ramaska. This would have been my fighter the week last week if I had done a UFC quick picks video. So you're welcome for not putting out a video because you would have been on that fight and that was canceled like 30 seconds into the broadcast. I had 100% exposure to it. So that one hurt, but we're going back to the well here. And ultimately, what I really like about the fight is that it's somewhat binary in that Fletcher is a kind of one dimensional aggressive grappler, all of his wins via takedowns control, grappling submissions potentially. And that's kind of all he does. He's not really a great striker. And I think he's kind of vulnerable on the feet. Well, now he's fighting Ramaska who is at ultra aggressive balls on the table, type of striker, no defense whatsoever, but just going to go out there and try and put on a war, try and kill you. And when he wins, he looks great, but no real defense to speak of, not on the feet, not on the ground. So I think what's going to happen is either Fletcher is going to out grapple him and dominate on the ground or Ramaska is going to knock him out. And the fight's minus 280 to end inside the distance. I believe, let me double check, minus 285 now to end inside the distance. Both sides have finishing ability. Fletcher plus 110, Ramaska plus 195 inside the distance. Last week or last event, these fighters were, Ramaska was 26 and Fletcher was 25% known. So not even that chalky. And then coming off a cancellation, now on a slate with better options, I don't think we're going to get chalk here despite them rating out very strongly in a mid range, even if they're the high twenties, low thirties. I think this is a really strong fight to target. One of my favorite fights on the entire slate, binary outcomes. I do lean toward the grappler and Fletcher. I just like grapplers. And I think Ramaska is pretty questionable, wrestling defense, but again, Ramaska is bigger, better striker, more aggressive, and certainly has KO upside to the zone, right? So I think that's a great fight to target this weekend. And that's going to do it for this week's UFC Quick Picks. Thank you again for the support. You can follow me on Twitter, @Appley, double T, double P, establishtherun.com for all your draft Kings breakdowns. Needs best of luck in your contest. Take care everyone, stay safe, and we will talk to you all soon. Peace. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
