The Jon Sanchez Show

08/30-What could affect your portfolio in September?

It was a week that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average close at record levels yesterday, benign inflationary data this morning and the close out of a very successful week and month on Wall Street. What are the positives and negatives we have to look forward to in September that could influence your portfolio’s performance? We’ll let you know, this afternoon on the Jon Sanchez Show at 3pm.

Duration:: 34m
Broadcast on:: 30 Aug 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

What's next? At Moss Adams, that question inspires us to help people and their businesses strategically define and claim their future. As one of America's leading accounting, consulting, and wealth management firms, our collaborative approach creates solutions for your unique business needs. We leverage industry-focused insights with the collective technical resources of our firm to elevate your performance. Uncover opportunity and move upward at Mossatoms.com. Good Friday, even until our afternoon. Welcome to the John Sanchez Show on his Doc 780K, and see, Jason, I screwed it up again. He means somewhere, as Jimmy Buffet or whoever the heck says. Yeah, five o'clock somewhere is what he is. On a three-day weekend. Absolutely. That's right. Thank you. Thank you. How you doing, my man? I'm doing quite well for a Friday, as you said, on an uneventful, really an uneventful week. You know, S&P was darn near flat. I feel like a really volatile week. Not a lot of events on the tape, but my goodness, they had enough reasons to move this thing all over the place. If you fell asleep on last Friday and woke up today, you'd be like, "Mm, nothing really happened." Yeah, that's true. I'm like that. Flat. You know what today is? The end of the month. True. One more month in the quarter, which we all live and die by in this business. No. Other than that, what? Your favorite market, this is the optimal holding period. From August 31st to November 29th, on average, the Dow outperforms the S&P by almost 2 percent historically over that period of time. Yeah, remember that stat. So starting today, as we're from our friends over at Equity Clock, my dad and monkey, I'm always looking for this stuff, that the Dow tends to outperform from August 31st to the end of November by almost 2 percent. Wow. So on some stage. I find that ironic because the other side of it is, everyone says, "September, it is the worst month of the year." Right? True. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. So maybe because of the opposite direction? Yeah. Well, I mean, industrials, right? Yeah. Some of the more value-oriented parts of the market, maybe a little better place to hide, maybe during that time of the year. Sure. But I always like that stuff. But in short, the S&P and by the end of the Dow, and just a little cherry trade on. The little cherry trade, exactly. Yeah, there you go. There you go. There you go. Well, it's pretty amazing that you say that, of course. It was a record-setting day for the Dow Jones Industrial Leverage. Yes. Man, oh man, I know many of you were hard to work at the office on the job site, wherever you may be, and you weren't staring at your screens like Jason and I. But my goodness, we got these algorithms. We got in. Let me see exactly when this started. This was at 12.50. So the Dow had been kind of climbing up for about the last half hour to an hour, 12.50 hit, and this massive buy order came in from the algorithms. And it just drove this thing in a blink of an eye and just kept moving higher and higher and higher. And again, finished very substantially with a 228 gain, 0.55% to $41,563. Like I said, a record close there. Let's go to the NASDAQ puzzle. Let's get these out of the way. 77 gain on the NASDAQ, 1.13%, SMPF 56.2, 1.01%. Before you do your great market recabulation, let me kind of hit the weekly and the monthly number since the month is now behind us from a trading perspective. So for the week, not too bad. Modest gains, NASDAQ was up 1.13% as our best performer, SMPF 1.01%, Dow gain 0.55, and the Russell up 0.67. And for the month, you know, to be honest, I think when I saw these numbers after the closing bell, I thought, man, it feels like we should have been a little bit higher than that. But they weren't. In the end of August, the SMP finished with a gain of 2.3%, Dow rose 1.8%, and the NASDAQ up 7/10, 7% and another little trivia here point for you, SMP Notch's fourth straight winning month. So that's a pretty good record to go right there. Mm-hmm. Yeah. Dow at all-time highs and Qs are not, you know, the NASDAQ that ends in a Q, it is not confirming. So that's something to keep an eye on, that whole growth- What do you mean by that? Not confirming. So it's, typically, you want to see those reaching new highs at the same time, right? Yes. The trans, Dow transportation at, you know, people look at that, the Dow transport's not making new highs when the SMP is making a new high. That tends to be a signal of some kind that people start to, you know, get concerned that the economy is not following what the market's doing, but in a case of the Dow outperforming the NASDAQ shows you that growth, which has been sort of your leader for two years now, is lagging the rest of the market or the more, you know, value part of the market, which I think you and I both agree that's given where we are right now, I would argue that's healthy, that we're finally seeing that broadening out, the bears will say, "Oh, my gosh, utilities and staples and then healthcare outperforming that's typically symptomatic of bad." But I would argue it's just a rotation out of the things that have done well in the interest rate environment we were in and now other areas that should outperform in a lower interest rate environment are starting to peak their head up a little bit. So I think it's healthy as far as the rotation we've seen in general. Yeah. Yeah. The last thing we want is everything to be in one basket by all means. All right. Tonight, let me tell you what we have lined up. But we're going to continue discussing today's market action and again, we're going to go back a little bit into history, meaning the beginning of the month, which seems like an eternity ago, kind of recap a little bit what happened, how this month started with that disastrous day that we woke up to after the carry trade blew up in Japan and so on so forth, kind of build our way up through the month with some of the things we went through. And then our main topic this Friday is really talking to you about what do we see? What do Jason and I see as far as positives and negatives of the market right now? Because again, as we said a moment ago, you come into September, there's a lot of concern about September from historical basis, but then you have the flip side like Jason just said. So who knows what it's going to entail? But what I do know is this is going to be the month, you know, Greg Neff and I were talking earlier today, Jason, and we're talking about, you know, political advertising and things like that, how it's really going to kick off after Labor Day. And I thought that was a great point that he brought up because that's what this market is going to be focusing on, right? You and I said this at the beginning of the year, come that, you know, basically the fourth quarter or somewhere really near that, that's when, you know, all kinds of craziness is going to be happening on top of all the normal things that we deal with. We also have, you know, potentially a Fed interest rate cut in the month of September. So we're going to kind of lay out, you know, what are the positives and negatives? What's September going to kind of hold for us and help you lay out your game plan just a little bit going forward? So let's go back into history, meaning the month of August, okay? So remember everybody, we, we suffered some pretty steep sell-offs at the beginning of the month, again, to the Japan situation. S&P was down at, for the month, about 7.3% before it began its recovery after that kick off. Dow was down 5.4%, NASDAQ was down 10.7% at their lows for the month of August. And then like I said, you know, here we finished with a gain of 2.3 for the S&P to repeat myself, Dow up 1.8, NASDAQ up 7/10 of a percent. So you know, you have to think about this also from a standpoint, okay, you know, wasn't all that historical of a month as far as the gained percentages, if you just look at again, S&P up 2.3, but it makes me feel a lot better, Jay, when we look at it and go, it was down 7.3, right? And it finished up 2.3, so, you know, basically almost 11% recovery there. And a lot of people were puking when the market was selling off, right, and that's, I mean, this is certainly one of those face-ripper type things, where if you were to have freaked out and capitulated and said, "Oh, here we go. This is the end is coming," which hasn't happened yet, you know, it was very painful. I think as an aside, I think that moving to the close today, John, was some of the systematic community re-invest. I agree. Right. That's the trend. The volatility control crowd that we'd like to keep inside a portfolio is here. We've seen a VIX that's traded down below, you know, 16 for a couple days now, and that, I think, gave a little signal to put a little more risk back on, and that's, normally these guys trade into the close. That is the part. And if you, ultimately that's your benchmark, you're going to get it, you know, stay as close to it as you can without taking the risk. And, you know, I think there were a heck of a lot of buy orders on the bell, and that's what caused this market to scream higher into the end of the month, which, earlier in the day, I texted you, we were talking a bit about it, three days in a row now, midday when Europe was closing, you just saw this puke, I mean, the market would puke, three days in a row, and as soon as Europe closed and they walked off, you know, to do whatever they do, I think the buyers came in and sort of caught them wrong way and ripped this thing with a close. Yeah. It was certainly a healthy way to finish the market. Great. Yeah, by all means. Let's talk about this moment on play that you're just mentioning, because a lot of people are not familiar with systematic investing and all that. It's pause right there and give an explanation of that. Yeah. It's really two different groups, but some of the volatility control crowd when they hold their portfolios and the markets become volatile in terms of the VIX going higher or a number of different signals that they use. Yeah, they will sell off and reduce their exposure. So for example, if you're targeting a, we'll use the VIX at 16 as a number, right? If you're targeting a 16 vol in your portfolio and the VIX goes to 20, they sell, so they have cash plus holdings, which equals 16 volatility, right? If you say you trim 10% of your portfolio and stick it in cash and the market is acting like a 20, you're going to act like a 16 because you're sitting on a portion of cash in your account. You're always trying to stay at a 16 vol flip side. If the market's very calm and the VIX is at 12, you're going to be like 125% invested because you're trying to stay, make your portfolio move like a 16 VIX would. And so when volatility kicks up, they sell to keep at that same level and same on the flip side when volatility is very calm, which many of these trend following volatility type funds have been, they've been very long and they're kicking the markets butt this year because they're taking advantage of the time when they make hay while the sunshine in. But I think we saw some of that into the close today because many of the funds that we watched that we invest with our clients had reduced their exposure to the tune of, they went from 125% long to only 70% long because of all that chop that we had at the beginning of August. And they stay there until they get enough days that things are calm and then they start to tip toe back into the waters to get back to their sort of target allocation. They tend to be a little reactionary, but that's a good thing. They don't whipsaw as much where they're getting in and getting out every other day. And I think it's also a positive that we're going into a three-day weekend with the gains that we have, right? You and I have lived through enough, you go into a three-day weekend and just the opposite happens, you get the massive sell orders going into the close because no one wants to be long. Over a three-day weekend due to geopolitical issues or whatever the country's dealing with at that point. This is, again, a bit of a positive going forward to start September at least, so another little positive there. All right, we'll continue our market discussion when we come back. Let us turn over to the wonderful Kristin Snow. She's keeping an eye on this. Gotta be a busy Friday, Kristin. Gotta be a busy Friday, how are ya? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on NISTOC 780KOH with Jason Gunnar Sanchez wealth management. As we said, a 228 gain on the Dow, Nasdaq rose 197, SMP up 56, again, a record close on the Dow. Well, my good friends over at S&W attractor, but, you know, I don't know if they're open tomorrow. I was going to say, but they are, but probably not. Stand on the crew. They deserve a long weekend like the rest of us do. But on Tuesday, get back to businesses, what they like to say. Stop by and visit them for a coyote tractor. A package, as I like to call it. All the implements, everything that you need, 0% of finance, and they've got it all an incredible service after the sale. Where do you find them? How about 4880 East Nylon and Carson City? They are online at S&W Tractor.com, and their phone number's 8821225. All right, we're just gonna do a little bit of a smorgasport as we like to do on Fridays because lots of things to talk about, month coming to an end, and what a month that it was. Now, Jason, you're gonna be proud of me, man. I stumbled upon this article on Bloomberg during the break. That is chalked, chalked, full of market historical data. You want to wrap on this a little bit? Yeah, absolutely. Now, before we get to this, let me give you all a quick reminder, since we're spending some time talking about volatility. Are you worried about market volatility affecting your retirement? Well, if the answer is no, it should be yes, and Jason and I are going to do something about this. Join us September the 4th, 6.30 p.m., so next week for a perfect way to wrap up your hard working day and get some invaluable advice that he and I are going to provide to you. We are gonna walk you through strategies that we use to secure your financial feature, even in volatile markets. You're gonna learn how to assess risk tolerance, diversify your investments, establish safe withdrawal rates to make sure your savings last, and you don't run out of money, plus so many other things. We're gonna help you create a contingency plan for those unexpected financial surprises, which, as you will hear in a moment when I go through this data, September is a great month that these financial surprises can come our way. How do you join us? There's no charge. We're doing this out of the kindness of our heart. Very simple. Just go to our website at sanchesawelfmanagement.com and sign up for it. It's really that simple. Once again, next Wednesday, September the 4th, 6.30 p.m., worried about market volatility affecting your retirement, we're gonna try to bring you some solutions for that. You don't want this market to uncertainty that dictate your retirement. Do we, Mr. Gantz? No. It's right on the webinars tab there. You get to see our smiling faces at the same time, so, I mean, that's a reason alone to go check it out. Absolutely. Come on. And then you get to spend an hour with us on Wednesday night, I mean, what do you want? You get to drink. You get to be on the microphone every day. Yeah, exactly. Right. You don't have to share your face. You can do whatever you like, but we will be there for you. And if you never attend one of our webinars, these are just chock full of great bits of information and, you know, our 50 plus years of combined experience, but at the same time, it's very low key. You know, we are not stuffy guys by any means, you're gonna see us show up in suits and ties and be just the opposite, probably wearing shorts that you can't see, but you're there for the knowledge. And again, we really enjoy the Q and A session afterwards, because this is a chance where we can really talk to you. And then, of course, if, you know, situations dictate, you just give us a call and we always open up our calendar for those that attend our webinar for free analysis of your portfolio and just sit down and talk with you and see what we can do to help you and calm some nerves, et cetera. So it's just a great time. Jason, I put a lot of thought in this webinar and our marketing manager, Bailey, helping out and the whole team getting this thing ready. So it should be really good really looking forward to that next week. All right. So let's give you a little bit of market data here. Okay. So cool. First thing is our friends over at LPL, they turn out some good market data once in a while. So here's what they said. The first day, since 1950, the S&P 500 has generated an average loss of 7/10 of a percent in September and finished higher, only 43% of the time, making it the worst month for stocks on average return and positivity rate basis. The last four September's have also been notably week, notably week, boy, listen to these numbers. The S&P over the last four years have lost the following 4.9%, 9.3%, 4.8% and 3.9% respectively. Those are pretty serious decline numbers in one month. Yeah, they are. And that's a couple reasons because of the blackout period kicks in sort of the early September. So ramp out blackout, meaning that companies can't be buying their own stock into earnings. That's a decent reason why. Part of the strength that we saw mid-month this month through the end of the quarters, because the blackout turned back on and people were back buying, but it goes in and goes out. Remember, the bid to the markets, pretty strong with the likes of Apple, et cetera, buying back stock, hand over fist with all of their free cash. So that's part of it. And then you've got that end of summer start of fall where portfolio managers are returning to their desk after hanging out on the Hamptons and rejiggering into what do we want to own for the last couple months of the year. And obviously this year is going to be notable, given how do you want to bet or not bet into the election. So. I've got a question for you. Mm. Never asked you this, but you just triggered it again. Never been to the Hamptons. Okay. Okay. That was part of it. That was part one. Yeah. Part two. Yeah, I know exactly. Part two. Okay. Yeah. Big money managers, so on, so forth. Sure. You were one of those. Do these guys, when they go, quote, to the Hamptons, as you said, do they really turn it off? I mean, are they turning off their email? Are they turning off their phone for a week or two, you know, as they get ready to, you know, as well get ready to head into this, this fourth quarter? I think like it runs the gamut. Okay. I was going to ask you that. I do. I'm a better night. I don't know about those people. Yeah. But no, I think it's just more of you've got, you know, historically volumes were much lighter during this summer. Absolutely. And just, you know, it's sort of that coming into the last quarter of the year, right? People start to freak out more than anything else. You're underperforming, you're outperforming, you're trying to make up what you know, at the end of the year. Yeah. So it's part of that more than anything else is how can I- Same boat system tingling out there. Right. How do I change things to try to take a run at making up what I'm behind, which is normal to get us for the rest of the year? Okay. Good. I've been there. Vineyard. Yes. Nantucket would probably be my preference between all of them. Yes. Yeah. Okay. No, we don't. Paint pants or whatever. But it's actually pretty cool. Nantucket's full load. Nice. Nice. Nice. All right. Next bit of trivia. From our friends over at Bespoke Investment Group, they found that over the past 100 years, September has also been the worst month of the year for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, with an average decline of 1.2%. Yeah. And then finally, our friends over at Citigroup, their analysis of data going all the way back to 1928 suggests the S&P 500 average realized volatility for September has historically been 1.5 points above August, while October has been an additional two and a half points higher. So these are just a few theories of, you know, what we potentially can have in store for us when we come back to work on Monday, right? Or Tuesday, excuse me. Potentially, yes. Yeah. Never know. We have seen trends broken more than once over our. That's true. That's true. Yeah. Nothing is for sure. Nothing is for sure. All right. So now with all that said, we've kind of prefaced it. You know what happened today. You know from a historical standpoint, some of the things that we have in store for us going forward, let's break it down into what you really need to analyze. And that is, what are the positives going on in the market slash the economy for the month of September? And we can even expand to the rest of the year. And what are the negatives, right? This will help you design your portfolio. But in the meantime, let's turn it over to Greg Neff. He's got news, traffic and weather. Hey, Greg. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780k, which with Jason Connes, Sanchez, wealth management to 28 gain on the Dow to a record close of $41,563, now as that gained $197, the S&P finished with an increase of 56 points. All right. What are the positives and the negatives of the market that we're dealing with right now? More importantly, what I mean by that is going forward, of course, in September. So we're going to outline some of these for you. A quick reminder, if you missed any of our podcast this week or at any time, go to your favorite podcast distributor, Spotify and iTunes, which is where most of you pick up our Spotify or excuse me, pick up our podcast. It's out there everywhere. And, you know, it's a great thing to do over the weekend. If you got a little bit of time, sit back and listen to what Jason and I and Corey and Dwight covered throughout the week and get yourself brought up to date because if you're catching our drift tonight, we want you to be prepared for September, right? There's just a, again, seasonality, a lot of historical data, not for the best, not saying that it, you know, can be wrong because, you know, we see trends broken all the time on Wall Street, but, you know, this is why we're spending a little bit of time tonight talking about the positives of the negative and also why we're going to be holding, again, our webinar on September the 4th at 6.30 p.m. Worried about market volatility affecting retirement? We've got the solution. Cisco to our website, Sanchez wealth management dot com and sign up for the free event. All right. Jason, let's kind of, kind of look at some of the positives and negatives going on at this point. I'd say the first one that comes to my mind is this market has some momentum, not saying that momentum cannot shift, but right now the momentum is definitely towards the upside where within a spitting distance of record closes for the S&P, again, we close with the record of the Dow, so on and so forth. So momentum, definitely a positive that we're dealing with right now, but, you know, that's one of the easiest ones to snap, of course, as far as something going for positive to negative. Yeah, and I mean, I think by and large, the market would be positioned still somewhat cautiously, right? I think the average investor, you know, were certainly saw some de-risking earlier this month. I think people have not gotten out of being quite as bullish as they were, so I think from a sentiment standpoint, I think you've got that as a tailwind to that, you know, most using the term, the buyers are higher, right, that, you know, as you see this market leak up, you could see more folks who, you know, again, are whether they're moving from short-term treasuries that were earning a 5% yield and soon to be earning a lower yield, move to bonds or whether they redeploy some of that capital into the stock market. You've got at least a fair amount of money on the sidelines that could be looking for a place to go here over the next six to 12 months. I think that's a positive overall. Right. Absolutely. All right, let's move on to something, of course, we have to discuss, which I know we're all tired of talking about, and that, of course, is the Fed. Now, inflation, inflation, inflation, right? This has been the dominant theme for many, many months, and of course, last Friday, seems like an eternity ago, was just last Friday when we had Chairman Powell speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, and broadcast is about as clearly as he possibly could without coming directly out and saying, "We are going to cut interest rates in September." Pretty much, that's what he said if you read in between the lines, and this is, again, what the market wanted. So, that was one of the catalysts, of course, to the market rising this week. So, here's one of my positives, of course, is the Fed is our friend right now. I usually say that very often, but I think we can say the Fed is our friend. Now, albeit, the big unknown at this point is still quarter percent or half a percent. Now, based upon the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a half a percent cut was trimmed today. I want to mention next, which will be the PCE prices, the favorite measure of inflation by the Fed. So, the probability of a half a percent cut decreased from 34 percent yesterday, down to 30.5 percent. But a quarter percent cut, 100 percent probability, according to the FedWatch tool. So, the Fed is our friend right now. You can't fight the tape. You can't fight the Fed. And something Jason and I are concerned about, of course, is what is going to be the actual market reaction when that day does come September the 18th. At few seconds after 11 o'clock, we will learn if everybody's assumptions are correct, if the Fed is going to cut rates and what, again, what's going to be the market reaction. So, Jason, that's going to fall pretty much mid-month at this point. Yeah. And I mean, thoughts are that they cut rates 75 basis points to 100 basis points this year. And remember, they're very restrictive. I rarely like to say this time is different, but I think this time is different. You've got a Fed that is incredibly restrictive, as restrictive as they've ever been. And GDP was revised higher to 3 percent this week, right? You've got unemployment, jobs are staying pretty contained. There's no big massive jobless spike or anything along those lines. The Fed's trying to be ahead of any sort of deceleration in the economy. They're not out there cutting because unemployment's spiking and we're looking at big naked GDP numbers. If they continue to do this plan and stay on where they're at, that demographics like we talk about is very much in your favor in terms of the economy in general, that they can certainly probably land this plane fairly softly as far as, you know, as long as nothing else comes up using the analogy of China lobbying a grenade at Taiwan or something along those lines. If nothing geopolitical or, you know, unknown, unknown pops up, I think that that can still be a tailwind into the end of the year. Absolutely. Now, one thing the Fed, of course, is going to take into account in their decision come September the 18th as we look forward to September is, of course, the data that we received today. And of course, as you've heard us say over and over again, this is the Fed's favor measure of inflation. It's called the personal consumption expenditure. Takes into account many more areas of the economy than your CPI and your PPI data does. So let's kind of hit this and again, we really dodged a bullet today. The number was actually very good. But first, let's tell you about some components of it. The personal income up three tenths of a percent month over month. And this is July's data was un revised from the two tenths of a percent increase in June. Personal spending up a half a percent. Now, when we repeat that, folks, personal spending up a half a percent, personal income up three tenths of a percent, right? As portfolio advisors and financial planners, we don't like to see our clients spending more than what they're making. But from a Wall Street perspective, we love this. We love on the consumers out there spending because that's what drives corporate profits, which eventually drives stock prices. So good job to be out there spending everybody. And then we move over to the year-over-year number, up about two and a half percent on a year-over-year number. That was unchanged from June, so we didn't budge there. And then the core PCE, where we strip out food and energy month over month, up two tenths of a percent, year-over-year, up 2.6, also unchanged from June. So if you notice, I'm emphasizing the word unchanged because this is what Wall Street wanted today, and this is one of the catalysts of today's market gains, is here's the Fed's favorite measure of inflation. You look at it year-over-year and really didn't budge much. And then on the month-over-month basis, you know, hardly budged it all there. So definitely another sign that inflation is starting to head south on us here, which is what the Fed wants to see. Amen. Amen. That's good. You know, there are parts of the economy that will stay bid from an inflation standpoint. I think, again, services, et cetera continue to show softening. That'll keep that part that the Fed's the most worried about is a wage price inflation in check as well. So it seems like the numbers in general are going the way that they want it. Absolutely. And speaking of wages, this is one thing that we normally will mention towards the end of the Friday show, which is what's the calendar look like next week. Well, let's just kind of jump on this right now. We will have the nonform payroll numbers come our way next week. Remember, when we received July's data, it was a boring number and quite a surprise of how low of a number it was. Only 114,000 jobs were created in the month of July. They are expecting that number to tick up a bit to 150,000. So slight uptick, not too hot, not too cold. Remember, folks, this is going to be, again, the Fed has really taken their eye off the inflation target at this point because they feel it's doing what they wanted to do. And it's really focusing now on the labor side. So labor reports like we get each and every Thursday with the weekly initial claims numbers. The Fed is paying a lot of attention to that, and they're definitely going to be paying a lot of attention to this November payroll data coming next Friday. So that's the expectation from 114 gained to 150,000 unemployment rate. They are looking for it to hold steady at 4.3%. And average hourly earnings rise just slightly to 3/10 of a percent from the previous number of 2/10 of a percent. Okay. So we can check that box. Who's our friend at this point? Economic data is our friend. What's another positive that floats around at our years? Well, I mean, the positive would be the fact that, you know, you've seen some of the names like Adele or Marvell today, Amazon, right? They continue to show that the areas that we want to see demand in, servers, AI-focused parts. I mean, in NVIDIA numbers, despite the fact that it was overhyped, they were good numbers. The demand is there. This technology is going to create lots of new jobs. Clearly it's going to make some more automated, exposed jobs go away. But you know, in general, I think we're on the edge of a new technology wave, whether it kicks in in the next year or so, or the next three to five. That's a positive for the economy in general, a lot of the younger kids coming out of school hopefully will have lots of these jobs available to them on the technology coding software side that, you know, I think the area had gotten a little over-saturated from a sense of the meta effect, right? The more advertising-based technology, and now I think we're moving into tons of efficiencies that can be done across not only the Googles and Amazons, but the, like you said, the cat tractors and the Kelloggs and all these other companies that can, you know, take their supply chain, they can take their technology, their interaction with customers and really bring it to a new level. So I think there's a lot of exciting things coming, and the market is keen to it, and those are areas of investment for the next one year, three year, five years. Absolutely. All right. A couple negatives that we want to mention when we come back, market volatility, which we don't need to expand too much on that. We pretty much covered that. Let's spend a little bit of time, Jason, about valuation. Are we overvalued at this particular point? So we'll touch on that as far as what we see as far as a negative for the month of September. But first, Kristin Snowhop hopefully has a bunch of positives for us to wrap us up in the right now at Traffic Center. Are we positive or are we negative, Kristin? There you go. There you go. I like it. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on Newstalk 780K OHH with Jason Gaunt. All right, Jason. I got to throw one more trivia at you. Okay. Here's the trivia question before we get back to our topic here. Okay. We'll give you the three major asset classes, stocks, bonds, and cash. According to data from Bank of America citing EPFR global data, which one of those three, and then I'll tell you the exact amount, in your opinion, had the biggest inflows for the week ending August the 28th, cash, stock, or bonds, biggest inflow? Good bonds. Close, cash, 24.5 billion. Okay. But number two. Make sense. Yeah. Now I guess for John's, because you said it was close. There you go. There you go. 20.7 billion. Smart. I'm trying to be productive reasoning. Yeah. Let's see. One minus two equals. Two thousand, man. A rubber burrito. Yeah. That's right. Yeah. Bond funds at 20.7 billion go in and in stocks, stock funds, 13.7 billion. So once again, record flows into cash that tells you something right there and stocks being the least amount. And then US equity saw the ninth straight week of additions at $5.8 billion. So something we always watch, of course, is fund flows. Where's that money going? I'm going to stand out for you. Do it? Following the first Fed cut. How much? False. What are you? Yeah. Following the first Fed cut, what do you think the return for semiconductors historically and semi cap equipment has been for three months and six months forward? So following the first cut, what is the average return for semis for three months? I know. I'm going to say it's positive because declining interest rates, obviously capital becomes cheaper. You would think. Yeah. Oh, my wrong on that side of that. Really? Yeah. Okay. Well, I'll stop there. I was going to give you like two and a half percent game. It sounds like it needs to be negative. Yeah. Following the first Fed cut, semis on average are down eight percent. In fact, they're down almost 10 percent. This is pretty Nevada life, though. This is going all the way back to 79. So 79. Oh, okay. You left that factor out there. Yeah. We had Intel and AMD and all these guys, but there haven't been any Fed rate cuts since NVIDIA became all for his AI. So there was one in 2019, and yes, six months forward, semis were up 10 percent. So that's the one time was back in 2019, but the average is lower. That is fast. Yeah. I wouldn't have thought either. Dig into the reason behind that, but going back to 79, no telling, but that was -- A ton of semis back then, yeah. Yeah. Amazing. Yeah, I wish you a great week, buddy. You too. Thanks, man. Appreciate it. God bless everybody. Have a safe Labor Day. We'll see you on Tuesday on the John Sanchez show. It's answered by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting john@sansheswealthmanagement.com or 775-800-1801. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group LLC, a registered broker, dealer and investment advisor, member FINRA SIPC. Securities offered only in states, John Sanchez is registered in. Sanchez Wealth Management LLC and Independent Financial Group LLC are unaffiliated entities. What's next? At Moss Adams, that question inspires us to help people and their businesses strategically define and claim their future. As one of America's leading accounting, consulting and wealth management firms, our collaborative approach creates solutions for your unique business needs. We leverage industry-focused insights with the collective technical resources of our firm to elevate your performance, uncover opportunity and move upward at MossAtoms.com.