Gorilla Sports
Gorilla Sports podcast NFL edition with @JWebb777
I'm your pocket fillers, the parlay killer, the north side thriller Start the broadcast, subscribe with smash, the gorilla sports podcast Oh snap, it's Mr. House Gonna welcome, wait for Alex a second here, he'll be joining. He's in the middle of a $500 fantasy football draft. There he is. And invite my guy up to co host with me. We'll be getting this thing going momentarily. I know he started his draft back at nine Eastern Alex. Good evening, my friend. How's the draft going so far? Uh, believe it or not, there was a whole bunch of complications. So now we're going at 10 p.m. Oh boy. So yeah, we'll be so we'll be on for your first few picks then. Yep, sounds good. I'm the 11 slot. Dude, I drafted out of that slot in my main home league. And I kind of fucking hate it. So yeah, yeah, I just did when I was 12 and it was the worst. I fucking hate so late. Yeah, we can we can talk through when it comes time for your picks and like kind of learn from like. Because so here's the thing with drafting late is you might get a decent running back. You're not getting one of the top three. That's for goddamn sure. Yep. You're probably not getting fake one either. Yeah, I'm looking for a one and one. Give me a receiver and an RV. I think I mean obviously depends on who falls, but we'll see. Yeah, like I don't trust Jonathan Taylor. I just don't like the running like the situation with Anthony Richard at the goal line kind of worries me. Yeah, he's gonna he's gonna steal a lot of goal lines. That's for sure. And it's like maybe like if AJ Brown is still there, I think he's a good pick at 11. And then maybe you try to maybe snag Jameer Gibbs in the first pick the second round, something like that. Yeah, exactly. Depends on who falls, but I don't mind Garrett Wilson there either or I end up going I end up going with Puka and Marvin Harrison. Oh, you went where'd you get on the way back? And then so in Puka, Marvin Harrison, and then the third fourth, I went Sam LaPorda, Devonta Smith. Okay. And then I was still able to get. And then I went I got David Montgomery and Tony Pollard on my running backs and I'm really on Pollard this year. So I'm happy with that. Yeah, I have like Rashi Rice is on my bench. Like I have great wide receiver depth and I've been trying to pull off a trade when no one wants to play this league like hardly anyone trades. So I'm just like, well, I got to figure figure something out. Maybe someone needs a wide receiver and I can trade one of these guys. And I have some I have some good depth, like some good RB pieces that I like who, you know, good turned on later in the season. So we'll get to your draft when it starts up. Let's start with week one of the NFL season. We're here tomorrow night, dude. We're going to believe it. Yep. We're going to be watching Raven's Chiefs. I'm fucking through the moon. Hey, real quick, everybody. I pinned to the top. The space. If you could do me a favor. Like drop a retweet on that comment on it. I don't know what helps the algorithm these days. My engagement is absolute dog shit. I feel bad for Alex because we really talked about like doing the space. He goes, yeah, you got all these followers. We're going to so many people like, no, bro, I get like 80 views on any single one of my posts anymore. I guess I pissed off Elon. I'm not sure. But we greatly appreciate all of you who are with us tonight. Let's get to the games. We'll start Raven's Chiefs looking across the market. The consensus spread on this game is three. The juice is going to vary from book to book. But it does look like at some point, we could see a two and a half hit. And the question then is, is it a bet on Kansas City? The stat has been going around all over Twitter of Lamar Jackson as an underdog. He's 12, one and one against the spread. And then he's 10 and four as an underdog straight up. So potential value on the money line. We saw last year, she's come in with that Super Bowl hangover. Lose to the lines. Yeah. This year, we have the Ravens coming in looking to exact some revenge and exercise, the demons from the AFC Championship game. Is Ravens the play? Are you taking the points, the money line? You know, nothing's really jumping out via the total. It's 47 and a half. So maybe, maybe the under prime time unders are usually a good bet. But what are you thinking for this game? Starting, you know, spread total. We can tip props as well. I like the Chiefs. I like the Chiefs for this. They actually own them. So as good as Lamar is as an underdog, he's only one in three versus Kansas City. And Mahomes absolutely lights him up and actually a lot of the Baltimore players all play poorly against Kansas City. Like I know Mark Andrews, I was trying to look at some of his props, but he absolutely gets scolded. Like he's terrible versus Kansas City. So I've actually, I've actually looked at taking Kansas City on a money line already. I like them. And especially if, yeah, especially if more money can get down on them. And I mean, Mahomes and their offense last year. Yeah, there was a Super Bowl hangover, but I mean, they had no receiver room like they didn't know what they were doing. Now, at least they have some pieces that they know they can play around with. And we'll see what they do with Kelsey this year. Are they going to, you know, kind of keep them back and not feed on the rock like they were, you know, the last previous couple of years. He's obviously on the decline. But, but yeah, I like Casey. I've put them in a couple of same game parlays. I don't know if you've noticed, like I've been going through like a couple of my sports books to see like what all the free, you know, free bets are and stuff like that. There's a lot of stuff out there. A thousand of them all over the place. Free this, you know, no sweat that. And it's like, I've, I've put a bunch of them in already. So we'll be excited to talk about them. Yeah. Later on in the show for those listening, we're going to play a same game parlay in this game. I got a little boost on DK. If it hits, I'm going to give one of you guys 100 bucks. Just, you know, I didn't announce it. I just wanted to be kind of like a surprise. Thank you guys for being here. Nice. And, you know, throughout the season, when I get these boosts, if we can use them as giveaways, I'll gladly do that. You know, have some fun with it. But the, and then real quick, just for me, like trying to help you better understand betting markets. The reason I say it's looking like it's going to go to two and a half is the juice on this game. When we see it at DraftKings, it's plus three minus one 18 at Fanduels minus one twenty. And then on the other side, it's minus three chiefs. The juice is minus one oh two. So they're trying to get people to bet. On the chiefs in this one, because of that lower juice. So what we could very easily see is they go to two and a half. And then it kind of flips where the Ravens are now, you know, plus two and a half, even money. And the chiefs become minus two and a half minus one twenty on the juice. So when you're looking to come off, I think you, I think. I don't know. I don't know if more people are going to bet the chiefs closer to kickoff. Like, I think my, the only thing I like in this game from a spread and total standpoint is the under. Forty seven and a half. It's a prime time, you know, prime time games that gets a lot more like the first season. A lot more people are going to be betting. They want to see points. They're going to bet that way. They're going to bet the over. So I like it at forty seven and a half. I'm a little hesitant, though, because it may go higher. Pardon wants to lock in a small bet here at the forty seven and a half. Yeah. If it goes to forty eight and a half. Yep. But we will see on that one. I do have a couple props I like in this game. Yeah, me too. Number one is going to be Patrick Mahomes over on his passing yards. The projections that Joe, that bunch of bets and I use are screaming that this passing yard number is just way too low. Yeah. So over to sixty six and a half. I'm seeing on stand dual bet MGM to sixty nine and a half. Like a lot of value. If you're betting this thing on stand dual. So I think, you know, that's a good one. Not as high on Lamar. But there's still an edge to be had there. And then for Lamar, I like the over on his rushing yards. I don't know if that's when you've looked at as well. I haven't looked at that. No, I'm kind of staying away from Lamar on this one. But yeah. I've hit Mahomes actually multiple times on this over. I love this. This is one of my best bets of the week. And I actually got two two fifty eight and a half. So it's screaming up. I've seen it like two sixty nine. This was at Fandall this morning. I bet again, I bet it at noon noon Eastern and it was, yeah, two fifty eight and a half. But it's at two sixty six and a half and it's just it's climbing. Let me fire off some Mahomes stats for you. So in the four regular season games versus Baltimore, he's averaging three hundred and sixty nine point eight yards and three touchdowns in four games. So it's not just like he had one outlier game of three hundred yards. No, no, he's averaging three hundred and sixty nine yards of one nineteen QB rating, like just absolute beast mode. So the one game that he didn't cover, he's played against them five times was in the playoffs last year when he threw for two forty one. It was a freezing cold game the end of January. So I mean, he still threw for two forty one in an absolute, you know, just defensive games, a seventeen to ten final. So I mean, even if you add that one in, he's still averaging three hundred and forty four. So I mean, he's averaging almost eighty yards more than his more than his total for today. So yeah, I got Mahomes over two fifty eight and I don't mind it up to at least two sixty nine, two seventy. Yeah, you can still find two sixty six and a half on fandold. That is your best option. I hit that once already. I have a good amount on this prop so excited there. Not too much is catching me on the receiving yardage. Rashi Rice showing a bit of value on fandold over sixty and a half. That is the only one though, like everything else projections are fairly in line. But if you want to correlate, you know, say you're doing the same game parlay and you're trying to correlate which you should be. And you know, you got the Mahomes receiving yardage over. You want to choose someone on the cheek around the passing hours over Mahomes. You want to choose a cheese player receiving over. Look at Rashi Rice. His, his line on EK is sixty two and a half. Like I said, better on fandold. So if you're 60 point five, yeah. Yeah, go go with and Mahomes's number is better on fandold. So do a little same game parlay. You don't have money on fandold. Move some money over to fandold. Have money on multiple books so that you can get the best number out there. Anything else for this game, we got 20 minutes until your draft stars. I want to get through as much as we can here. And some of these games are more interesting than others, but anything else before we go on a pack or eagles. Yeah, I got a bunch actually so bear with me here brother. Yeah, I went deep into this and I found a bunch that I absolutely love. So I know we were kind of talking off air like earlier a couple weeks ago about reverse correlations and how much the odds can juice. And one of the guys that I actually liked to do this and I did this with them last year is Rashi Rice. When you take him under 60 and a half receiving yards but over five and a half catches. So he takes a lot of you know screen passes and stuff behind the line of scrimmage. And Baltimore's a good tackling defense so I mean if they can keep him under and he goes over his catches he gets six catches for 55 yards. That's not out of the possibility and you get that at a plus 866. I mean that's absolutely part of you know his outcome so I was looking at that I haven't pulled the trigger because I honestly think that the yards are going to go up. Just because everybody takes overs closer to it so I might kind of wait and see a 62 and a half something like that and then take the under that and over the five and a half catches. But I like I like Derek Henry and I know you're not a Henry guy this year but I am. And I like him over his 63 and a half rushing yards. And I see that's ticked up to like 64 and a half 65 and a half. But he's covered this in five straight versus the Chiefs. He's averaging 112 yards versus them and 1.3 touchdowns. And obviously this is a Tennessee team it's a different animal, but it just shows that he can blast through this this strong defensive front of Kansas City. So getting him at 63 and a half I do like that look. And also I like Travis Kelsey. Now I know his yardage has come way down in the last couple years, but he's covered this in six straight versus Baltimore so his numbers at 57 and a half I don't think that's moved too much. But yeah he's covered this in six straight games versus Baltimore including like his last two games obviously they mattered more when they're in the playoffs so all of a sudden he went off. But his last two we put up 116 and 109. So I mean almost doubling his total there. So yeah for my same game parlay. I like me some homes, some Henry and some Kelsey all to go over. Okay, we can we can put that in this little same game parlay I'm building here. I have. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So I got my homes over on passing Henry over on rushing Kelsey over on receiving. I need one more leg to be able to use my 50% boost on this. So I'm between either Lamar Jackson rushing or Rashi Rice receiving probably Rashi Rice receiving since it does. Like the more like with the rest of them. Yeah, and the Lamar over on rushing negatively correlates with the Derrick Henry so that is my solution right there. I'm going to go Rashi Rice over 62 and a half Kelsey over 57 and a half. That comes out to plus 650. I got a 50% boost. Max all my I'm capped at 50 bucks on draft. Go fuck yourself. So you know we got a little got a little same game parlay there. So for those who want to join in on it with us, we have my homes over 268 and a half yards Derrick Henry over 64 and a half rushing Rashi Rice over 62 and a half receiving Travis Kelsey or 57 and a half receiving. And I figure in these like we each bring kind of to to pick to the table, make sure they correlate and we just kind of run it from there. So anything else in this game before we move on. We can talk about your beloved Philadelphia. My beloved Eagles I do actually so like I said I do like Kansas City on the money line as well. But I was also looking at Pacheco but over his rushing attempts. Now set it 14 and a half which I kind of like and he's covered this in five out of his last six games he's really kind of taken over that backfield. Obviously we got Smudge a P Ryan coming in but he's not acclimated yet. So, and I mean if it goes the way I think it will with Kansas City having a lead they're going to try and crunch it down late in the game where you know he can get six seven rushes in the fourth quarter alone if they have a lead. Let alone you know trying to, you know, have some ball control. So I don't mind that look as well. And, yeah, the one time he's played against it was obviously in the playoffs 24 attempts but again that was a really cold kind of. And where you know obviously they were running a ton but yeah I was looking at Pacheco over his 14 and a half I haven't pulled the trigger yet on that but that was something that I liked as well. Okay, I'm all good on props for this game. I will kind of leave it to you if you got anything else otherwise we can we can get going to the Friday night game. But also real quick Fandal has a live 50% boost on this game as well, which I'll be taking advantage of so and it's a standalone bet on its own so I'm probably going to wait for the game to start and probably hit my homes again. And try and get a 50% boost so much they'll let me get down on it and try to get him over his 260 whatever it is and especially even if like Baltimore starts with the ball. And the algorithm kind of starts bringing these down as the clock is ticking away so if Baltimore starts with the ball you might even be able to get back to that 258 260 price and I'll be I'll be hitting a 50% boost for that as well. All right, love the strategy with that one. Using Eagles from Brazil. The line is two, two and a half depending on the book. I personally am on the Eagles in this one get laying two points. I think that, you know, we're seeing. I have more questions with the Packers and I do the Eagles and I get that the Eagles went out sad in the playoffs last year. The Packers over achieved a little bit. And we've been into a lot of public money on the Packers. But we got a healthy Eagles team. And with their defense with Jalen Hertz under center with the receivers they got adding sake one. The Packers, you know, still trying to get a feel for things with Josh Jacobs, receivers look healthy but I think this is again that the Eagles can and will win. So I laid the two points. What do you have in this one anything that's jumped out at you on the spread total money line. Yeah, I like the over in this game actually. I don't get wrong. I like the Eagles to win it as well. Like everyone knows I'm an Eagles guy. So all these Packer fans are all calling me 100 bucks 50 bucks 200 bucks. Like share it. I'll take all your action. Whatever you want. Bring it on. So I just think there's going to be a ton of scoring both defenses have been, you know, kind of painful. The Packers, you know, they had the 17th worst completion rate, the 19th worst yards allowed the 18th worst yards per completion. So they were overall there was a 24th, 24th worst pass defense last year. And they're going to have some troubles as well. They got a new defensive coordinator in there. So they have, like you said, they have a lot of questions there as well. And obviously Philly had a ton of trouble down the stretch. The third pass defense was one of the worst, like historically bad, like 30th ranked in almost every category for passing yards. You couldn't really run on them, but you could absolutely throw on them. So now they did draft a bunch of rookies in the first and second round trying to, but it takes time to acclimate to that. And again, they have a new defensive coordinator. Obviously, Vic Vagio is a stud, but we'll see what kind of system they have. There's a couple of breakdowns here and there. And as well as Jordan Love and the Packers played down that last stretch after about week 10, like they were just, they were really good. So I can see both of these offenses absolutely scorching it. Yeah, I don't disagree with you on that one. The number has moved up. Yeah, I see 49 now. Yeah, 49 is the best you're going to find for the over 49 and a half if you want to play the under. I don't know if I like if I was able to get a 47, that would have been the move, but yeah, 49 and a half. The little rich. And I think the only thing I really have in this one is the Eagles minus two. Yeah, that's really it for me. I don't want to move. I got one more actually in the first quarter. I like over nine and a half points. So I was kind of reading a couple of articles that like with this new like kickoff stuff that the amount of extra yards that you're getting. Like, I don't think the books realize that like how much that can actually add up to points when you start for five, six yards ahead of where you're regularly starting. And also it's a game in Brazil, like they're not going to, you know, they're going to want to take some shots and obviously the Packers, like you said with Jacobs coming over. Like they have the same receiving core. They have all the same guys. So I feel like they're going to they're going to take some shots. And one guy I was looking at was Christian Watson over 37 and a half. Like they don't know what to do because they have four, like, you know, wide receiver twos on their team right like none of them are an alpha. None of them are like actually looking for the ball. So, I mean, he was like the hype train for the last two years, but he's just been so injured and I'm not looking to like draft him for my fantasy team, but you're telling me one game against a bad past defense over 37 and a half. I don't mind that look at all. Yeah, he and he's been healthy too. That's like, yeah. And no news is good news storyline out of Green Bay is he's not missed a practice. Since last year, like he from May until now, he has been healthy. He's gone through like he's gone through training camp. OTA is all that stuff. So it seemed like he's in, he's in good health and that that was the problem last year. And if he can come into the season, you know, in that shape. Over 37 and a half on fan duel on a few other books, probably is is a good place to go. We may be losing Alex as I speak because I'm getting and he's gone. All right. So he should be joining us again momentarily. I'm surely back. He's got his draft and there he is right on cue. We invite him to co host again. But yes, the Christian watching over. I, I like that one as well. I think it is a good call. I mean, back brother. Yeah, I got you. Yeah, what the hell. Were you not able to hear me again? Yeah, a little bit. I heard 37 and a half something or other at the end there. Oh, yeah. 37 and a half is the line you can get for the over. For Watson will you want to go? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. So I like that. And I know a Dobbs is hurt right now. You got a hand or something like that. So, you know, and I know with with Christian Watson, they had 159 plays where it was Dobbs Watson and read all on the field together and he led, he led the team with 25.9 percent of the target share. So I don't mind that look at all for over 37 and a half. I mean, he could get that in one play. Like, let's be honest, like he's kind of got that, you know, field stretch ability. Yeah, or 37 and a half. I don't mind that. And, you know, the Eagles do have some younger guys at corner who'll be getting some snaps. So, you know, and safety. So maybe maybe they can pick on them a little bit there. Let's move on to our next game. We got a lot to cover. So we'll move fairly quickly through these. I also have a pretty hard out in about 40 minutes. So we'll get through these ones, plus I got your draft going Steelers and Falcons. I think this is one. But the line is three, three and a half. The total is 42 and a half 42. I have next to no interest in this game. I haven't bet anything on it. I doubt I will unless the Falcons move to two and a half, which I don't think is very likely any interest in the Steelers or the Falcons in this one. Yeah, I've seen some three and a half pop as well. Actually, if I don't mind Atlanta at minus three to tell you the truth. So did you see a three today? Like I've been looking around, but three on bed MGM still and Caesars. Oh, cool. So I might take a look at that. I was also looking at Darnell Mooney over his 23 and a half receiving yards. I mean, we'll see what happens with him, but they're running out of options there in Atlanta as well. And I feel like, you know, he doesn't have to do much to get into that 20, 23 and a half or 29 and a half, excuse me, receiving yards. So I was kind of looking at that. I honestly haven't pulled the trigger on many bets past Friday. I want to kind of see where the market moves and kind of where it's going to go. So I've kind of deep dive into the first two, but I've got some, some leans that I'm looking at as well. But yeah, those are the two that I was looking at. Yeah, and I have a few that I've already bet that I like one of those is the next game, the Titans and the bears. Titans are four point dogs in this one in Chicago. Caleb Williams getting his first started quarterback. Will Levis coming off of, you know, it was a weird rookie season, but he finished it strong. Yep, we're seeing the total at this point, 44 and a half 45. I am on the Titans. I bet it at what I got a four and a half on stand dual like minus 115. I kind of I still like it at four. I still look historically what rookie quarterbacks and especially number one overall picks do in their first start. They they struggle to win. They're not often favorites, but they don't cover. So I like what I'm seeing in the market. You know, the Titans are good. If you listen to any of our preseason shows, any of our futures shows, I gave out the Titans was one of my favorite long shot bet. They have a lot more fight in on they brought in some great guys on deep like solid solid veterans on defense. They have, you know, a lot of offensive weapons. I think people are sleeping on. So I'm heavy on the Titans in this game. I haven't taken on the money line yet. I probably will and they'll probably be a piece of one of my money. I'd be like a money line underdog parlay each week for college and for NFL and there's a good chance that the Titans are going to make the cards in that parlay. And I hit it in college football and week one. So did you really get a voice. Nice. What did that pay plus 586. Nice. So I was very happy with that. But any thoughts on the Titans and bears. I'm honestly staying away. I don't know what the bears are going to look like yet. I mean, there's a lot of question marks there for sure. So I've kind of just kind of briefly looked at it. But no, I'm staying away from this game like literally altogether. I want to see what the running back situation looks like in Tennessee. I want to see what you know the receivers are looking like in the quarterback and in Chicago. So yeah, it's a stay away game for me. All right. Let's move on to the next one. We have the Texans and the Colts in Indianapolis Colts are dogs at home. You can find it at plus three on draft Kings or minus two and a half. If you want to back the Texans on fan dual total in this game. 48 and a half. I want to take. I mean, the public is all over the Texans. But for good reason. There's a lot of question marks with Anthony Richardson. The Texans held a season with Stroud. How are they going to look? They added more pieces on defense. They added digs on offense. The two and a half is a really, really nice number. But I don't know if I'm going to pull the trigger on that one here. I know I'm kind of high on the Colts this year, but I mean, Houston, like, they just seem like they're here to win right now, like adding, you know, like these kind of players and these kind of parts. Like Stefan Diggs is your, is your, you know, second or third receiver? Like that's, I mean, it doesn't matter what his decline is. I mean, he's better than half of the receivers in the league still. So it'll be interesting. I have, I'm a stay away on this one as well, because I, like I said, I've got some futures, not that it matters. I mean, I don't bet, you know, give or take if I have future bets it. Every bet is it stand alone bet for me. But yeah, I don't know. If you asked me to pick, I would take Houston minus the two and a half on the road, but I'm not going to touch this one. All right, let's keep going then. This is a game I do have some interest in the jags and the dolphins from Miami. Total, you can get the over 48 and a half under at 49. The spread in this one is in favor of the dolphins by three and a half points. My lean in this one is toward the over. Jalen Ramsey, Jalen Ramsey popped up on the injury report with a hamstring injury. He's not the old Jalen Ramsey, but he's still a damn good corner. That's going to impact this game. The Miami defense was ravaged by injuries. Bradley chub is still out. He's going to be out for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, the jags. Last year was a terrible ending for them. Like, let's, we, there's no, no getting around. But that was without Trevor Lawrence. That was with, and when he was in there, he was super like hampered, could barely move. Now you get a healthy ready to bounce back Trevor Lawrence. I think the jags can come into this one. I think they can cover the three and a half. And I think that they can be a part of a high scoring game that goes over 48 now. Here's what you think there, Alex. Might have lost him yet again. Again. Again. All right. This is just. Am I here? I can hear you. Can you hear me? Yeah, I got you. Okay. What do you think about? Yeah, I heard your whole spiel. I heard it. I was weird that I couldn't speak on it. Yeah, I also like the over. I was looking at the dolphins team total over as well. Like they like coming out huge and just showing off this offense. And actually I did put a bet on this one already. I took to over his longest completion of 37 and a half. Now they just love absolutely bombing it out. And I mean, like hill or wattle could easily take this down. But not to mention they got a champion who could take a screen for 37 and a half. So I thought this was a bit of a short number. I saw that he's covered this in nine out of his 15 games that he played. So it's a decent price on it. So yeah, I didn't mind to a longest completion over 37 and a half. Yeah, I mean, you could one of those guys could take a slant like wattle or hill could take a slant. Yeah, it could be yards to the house. So a lot of ways for him to let alone a screenplay from each. Yeah, right. Like, I mean, this guy's electric and one little, one little deep and he's gone. Right. So I mean, the speed that that guy has but yeah with with wattle underneath and also, yeah, not bad. All right. So that I think we're both on the same page there. The over in this game. Do you like the jags being three and a half or do you just want to focus on the total. All right, we're going to keep it moving. Twitter is being awesome tonight. Yeah, no kidding. I keep getting all these pop ups and reconnecting reconnecting. I'm like, what are you doing Twitter spaces. Let's move to Cardinals and bills right now. Six and a half is the spread across most books total in this game. 48, 48 and a half. I'm a bills fan, but this one worries me. Like Tyler is he's a tricky son of a bitch and with your with Trey McBride. James Connor's been solid in the backfield for what seems like ever now decades. If I was taking a side, if I was betting aside in this game, it'd probably be the Cardinals getting six and a half. I got nothing on the total. And this is one that I feel like could be a week one, like trap game for a survivor. So if you're into survivor leagues, this one feel, you know, the bills are at home. If you can only use one team, like a team once each season, like pretty much all survivors. Maybe this isn't the week to choose the bills. I think they're going to have easier matchups. They're going to get the Patriots at home. I think they'll have other opportunities and I want to see what Kyler and Marv and this offense and the defense. Like, I think the defense is, you know, people are saying it's just going to be the worst in the league and it very well could be. But Jonathan Gannon is a defensive head coach. He's had a full year to try to turn this defense to what he wants it to be. They may come out and it's the first game where Josh, I was going to have no dig, no Gabe Davis. He's kind of trying to figure out what's going on with the wide receiver group. I think it's just a stay away in survivor pools. If that was one place that you were looking in this game, but that's a great call. Anything else here. Before we move into. I have, I have Arizona plus six and a half written down. So that's one that I'm going to take another dive into. I am on the same thoughts that like Buffalo has too many question marks right now. Arizona, I feel like they just have the momentum of this new receiver that's looking great. And obviously the connection with Trey McBride. And like you said, with John, with James Carter as well. So yeah, I have Arizona written down and actually Dalton kick Cade over his 50 and a half receiving yards. I've been looking at that as well. Arizona has been like historically bad versus the tight end for years. And I don't know if they fixed it or what it could be. But at 50 and a half, I feel like with, you know, like you just said with their receiving core being depleted, they don't have many other options. And I like Dalton Kincaid as fantasy as well. Yeah, I like that call. He's, I think he's going to set up for a big year. Let's move into what should be a pretty boring, ugly game that's not going to get a whole lot of time on red zone. I don't think Patriots and Bengals. The Bengals are the biggest favorite of the week. Eight, eight and a half. You can find them in the market. The total on this game is like 40 and a half 41. So not expecting anything too entertaining here. This is the Bengals are going to be the most popular survivor pick this week. And for good reason, I think it's very safe. You know, the highest probability here. So I don't, I don't mind that if you're doing some survivor, but I don't have any bets on the spread or the total. The, you know, one that I saw prop wise Jalen Polk over for the Patriots, like his number is super low and showing a lot of value on him. That's one guy who I did like coming out of college. And there's not a whole lot of other people for them to throw the ball to. So I kind of like Jalen Polk. If you're looking for a prop in this game, him going, I'm trying to find the number right now. Let me see. Where the hell do I have zero on this game? Like I, like you said with the red zone, I'll be avoiding this game at all costs. Yeah. Yeah, I think it'll just be an absolute blowout. And I don't know what New England's even going to look like this year. So yeah, I don't want to take any of the receivers on on since because all of a sudden they get up and it's like, you know, are they going to start, you know, just just handing the ball off over and over again to try and just get out of this game. I don't know. Yeah, I got nothing for this game. All right, let's move. So Jalen Polk over 30 and a half receiving yards on stand tool is my favorite product. That's not bad. They're obviously going to have to play catch up the whole game. So that's not a bad look, actually. I'm going to write that one down. The other, the next game is going to be a interdivision matchup between the Panthers and the Saints down in New Orleans. Saints are four point favorites in this one total sits at 42. I have met the Panthers here. I think I got it. I get it at plus four and a half. I still like it at four. I think, you know, I have a lot more faith in Dave Canales as a coach. Then I do and Dennis Allen. Dennis Allen is a absolute punch. So watched. He does not cover period, but he especially doesn't cover as a favorite. So give me the four points with the Panthers. If you can get four and a half slam dunk that thing. And this is probably going to be my other leg in the underdog money line parlay. It's going to be two. And that's why, you know, it's ugly, but it can hit. And it will hit a few times every season and make it profitable. So the Panthers on the money line with the Titan's on the only line is a parlay I'm going to have. But yeah, I like the Panthers here. I think Bryce Young is going to be better than we've seen previously. And I just, you know, their defense should be okay. And I just don't have a lot of faith in the Saints. Yeah, nor do I. The only prop that I was looking at was maybe Kamara over his 26 and a half receiving yards. Yeah, I know that's a high total for him for, not for him, but for receiving running back anyway. But I just think, you know, it's the beginning of the year, you know, car is going to need some checkdowns to, you know, I'm just, I'm not a Derek car guy by any means. My brother's been a huge Raiders guy for forever. So he's been trying to sell me on the mascara man himself. But, but yeah, so I was looking at Kamara over his 26 and a half receiving yards. I'm going to dive deeper into that and see if I'm going to pull the trigger, but that was one that I really liked. Yeah, I, you know, with their car, he will check that shit down. And you know, you twist his arm on that one. So I like the call there. Let's move into the next game. It is going to be the final game in the early window Vikings and Giants. This one is around. You can find one or two on this one in favor of the Vikings going into New York into the Giants own stadium and taking the win on opening day. This is another game. I don't, you know, totals at 41, if anything. I mean, I don't know, no, no, I'm not like, I'm not, I'm not going to head over because this could be a 17, 14 game and no one would be surprised at all. Vikings defense, I think, is going to be pretty good. Giants offense should be pretty good. The, or defense should be pretty good as well. I think the offense without saquon. First game of Malik neighbors. Dusty Devin Singletary. I don't have any. This is another game. I don't. Yeah, I have any interest in the side or the total. Nothing in the props are really jumping out at me right now. Can we just move into the late window. For sure. If you asked me to pick, I'd probably take the Giants at home week one. You know, they're all fired up. Minnesota's on the road. They don't know what they're doing with their quarterback. So if you asked me to pick one, I would, but I won't be putting my money on it. Yeah, I think that's probably the smart way to do it. All right. Let's move to the late window. We have four games in the afternoon. Broncos and Seahawks. We the one we talk about first. The new highest paid quarterback in the NFL. Patrick Sir Tan with the Broncos going up there to Seattle to face off against Gino. The total is 41 and a half. And the Seahawks are six point favorites. I don't mind the Bronco. I kind of like the Broncos getting the six points. I think the defense is going to surprise some people. Phone Nick is has looked good in the preseason. I think they have some weapons around him that they can get the job done. It's a really tough call there. I think if that was, you know, if I was looking for something though, I would take this six points with the Broncos. What say you. I would be on the other side I think if you I don't I haven't pulled the trigger yet, but I do like Seattle. I think I like Seattle minus the six. I just think. I just think there's too many questions for Denver coming out of this. I did like Bonix. He did look good. I feel like he's gonna be checking down like a boss. I don't think he's gonna be throwing anything past like 18 yards down the field ever. And I think that could actually be enough to to, you know, take attack their way to covering versus Seattle. But I think, you know, a couple of late scores. And if we can get chef Gino to because I am high on DK and I do like Kenneth Walker this year as well. So if you were asked me to bet I then probably take Seattle to minus six. Okay. I don't think we're gonna have much, you know, I'm not that convinced on the Broncos. So I'm not gonna fight you on that one. Perfect. Let's move to the next game after that, which is going to be the Raiders and the Chargers. This is another like there's there's some fun games this week. There are some real kidding. There's some brutal ones. And this being one of them total at 40 and a half. You have the Chargers at three point favorites at home. Jim Harbaugh coming back to the NFL. What is he going to do with Justin Herbert and Lad McConkie and that running back situation. I don't know Antonio Pierce now the full time head coach for the Raiders. What's going on? I wish you getting the start for them. Right. I want to be on the Raiders here. If it goes to three and a half, I will be. But at the three, like that half point is I'm a guy who a lot of times I just need the hook baby. And this is one of those spots where I need the hook. I will take the Raiders if it goes to three and a half. Otherwise, I got no problems sitting on my hands for this one. I did see. Yeah, I'll be sitting on my hands for sure. And the drop I saw for this game that looked promising. It was Lad McConkie over on receiving yards. He's going to be Herbert. He's not key in Allen. I get that part, but he's the closest thing they got to him. They bring in like a pass catching tight end at all. And you know, I like Josh Palmer. I think he's good. But I think McConkie could absolutely go over his receiving yardage prop this week. I need to pull that. I believe the number is I've been pulling up right now. I believe for Lad McConkie is 34 and a half on DK and the projections that I'm looking at have him at fifty four point three two. So a lot of value on lad getting the over or you can get better juice for thirty five and a half. That is the higher edge between the two. That's my only bet on this game is going to be Lad McConkie going over his receiving yards. I like that. I just wrote that down. I'll be taking a play on that one. Good call. Awesome. Let's move into our next game then. That will be the Cowboys and the Browns in Cleveland. Browns are two and a half point favorites against the boys. The total on that one forty one once again. So some lower totals in some of these games that we've been like some more. There are some good games early in the slate. Some tighter ones later on. And then the nightcap is going to be the best. But I'm you know, what are we going to switch to Sean Watson? Are we going to see? We're not going to. We're not going to be the one from the Houston Texans who was fun to watch that. That's Sean is long gone. Are we going to see one that can at least be competitive on a team that isn't going to require him to do a ton? Like the defense there is so good. He doesn't need to do too much and he'll and he'll be just fine. So where are you on this game? Maybe God, maybe the under like. I don't know what to expect. Such a low number. I know. I know. Gross. But like. No Nick Chub. He's going to be thrown to a Mari Cooper and in Joku and Jerry Judy. Jerome Ford running the ball. It could absolutely. It's a low total, but it could absolutely just be one of those. Yeah, I agree. Very well could. If I mean, I was leaning to the over, but yeah, not, not conviction enough. I couldn't put my money on it. But yeah, when I saw that total, I was just like, man, like. I mean, they both have a ton of weapons. Well, I mean, I guess I guess Dallas has a lot less weapons, but yeah, you don't know what you're going to get from either wall. So yeah, I didn't pull the trigger on that one, but yeah, I'll go deeper into the later games and the night games and a little later on in the week, but as yeah, just as a first glance, I thought maybe the over there, but, but no, I'm going to stay away for now. All right, let's go commanders and another one that I think could be entertaining. I'm excited to watch Shane Daniels play. That's for damn sure. Yeah, and this being in the later window, you know, we'll get to see more Caleb in the early window and Jaden in the later one. The Bucks, you know, no Dave Canales to be the offensive coordinator there. What is that going to do to Baker? The commanders, their defense is in a rebuild right now, but Dan Quinn is a defensive head coach. I don't know about Cliff Kingsbury. I'm not a fan of his and I don't know if he's the right offensive coordinator. That's my biggest concern with Jade and honestly is like, Cliff Kingsbury Kingsbury and Quinn. Yeah, and Quinn. I don't like either of those guys. So I don't love that. But anything, you know, I'll be watching this one for fun, but I don't know if I'm going to really put any money on it. If the if the total can get to like 44 and a half, I might go under 44 and a half being a number. If you're going to bet the over 40 over 43 and a half at this point is is a decent number to take. But you think we see Baker regress at all or are we going to keep on seeing the same old guy. I was looking at Tampa Bay and that's three and a half. I do hate that hook. I'd really like that three, but I was kind of thinking Tampa Bay for this one. Yeah, I just hope some of the stuff that the coach left with Baker is actually going to keep with him so he doesn't, you know, revolt back to the the pumpkin that he was for his entire career because this was one of his best years. By far was last year, but also like I was looking at God went a little bit as well. I was kind of trying to check out some of his spots, but also what I was looking at scary Terry McLaren over over seven and a half first quarter yards. So I just kind of think that they're going to just try and key in on him. And, you know, before Tampa Bay can figure out what what's going on. They may be able to get a quick eight yards and as Terry McLaren. So that was a kind of a sneaky one that I liked. Okay. I can, I can get on board with Terry. I'm a fan right seven and a half yards. And I mean, they don't have many options. He's obviously keyed in on. And I mean, I wish I could find some alts on it because I'd like to see, you know, I can see Terry going off for 30 yards in the first quarter and just finding them with these long balls because I know that's kind of what his MO was in college was being able to throw an accurate deep ball and McLarens, you know, you can get under those really well. All right. Let's move to the night game. Lions and Rams Stafford going back to Detroit once again after last year's playoff game. The Lions are three and a half point favorites at home in that one. I want to be on the Rams getting, getting the three and a half there, but the defense without Aaron Donald, who could, who could being banged up in the preseason. Questions along the offensive line. Meanwhile, the Lions got better. You know, I think you could say on defense, they got better. They now have like to improve their offensive line somehow. So they have the best offensive line in the lead. I think down, I think they're going to win that game in the trenches. And so I don't know if I can pull the trigger on the three and a half. The total on this one is also pretty high, 51 and a half. Maybe, you know, if anything, I'd maybe look at an under, but this might be one I do like some props closer to the game. And I also just kind of watch it for the fun of it because I think it's going to be a great, great game to watch. Yeah, I think they're good. Obviously, you know, all the sites will probably throw out the Sunday night, you know, same game parlays for free and all that kind of stuff. I was kind of looking at Detroit's team total because I don't know if LA is going to be able to put up enough points, but I just feel like, yeah, with LA's defense, I don't know if they can, they can stop what what Detroit brings. So that'll one will be interesting. I'll be waiting to see what what kind of numbers I can get later on, but yeah, I was kind of looking at the over the team total. Okay, I do like that approach. What was it at right now? Twenty, I have to put it on the sixth and a half, twenty seven. Yeah, exactly. Yeah, I just think that they could put up twenty seven here. I think they're going to probably get most of that 50 points that they're getting. So I think it was twenty seven and a half. I saw that. Yeah. First, you know, four touchdowns. We're looking for it out of them. Yeah, but you know, they lost their defensive coordinator. He's not the head coach in Atlanta, or he morris. So, yeah, yeah, which is huge struggle and obviously Aaron Donald. Yeah, it could be a struggle finding their way on defense. All right, let's wrap it up with your draft started, by the way. Have you made your pick? No, I got it. No, I got it. I got a push. I got the boys to pause me for 50 minutes. So two minutes until the clock. So this is going to be perfect timing. Okay, we'll wrap it up then with the Jets and the forty Niners, the Niners at home in this one. They are favorites of four, four and a half points. I have already bet on the Jets here. I've taken the four and a half. The Super Bowl hangover is very real, especially for the losing team. And this was a stat I saw recently. The team that has that lost the Super Bowl previously covers at a sub 40% rate. And the last time that the forty Niners were in the Super Bowl back in 2020, they lost to the Chiefs and the following season they opened against the Arizona Cardinals at six and a half point favorites and they lost that game outright lost outright. I remember that. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. You have a forty Niners team. You just had one of the guys got shot. Thank Christ Ricky Pierce all is okay. Trent Williams just got back to camp. The IU drama. McCaff. All the drama with too much going on. Yeah. That's a good bet. And so, you know, the Jets, things could not get any worse than they did in that first game of the season last year. But, you know, I think they, the defense is going to do enough in this one. And Rogers can play just if he can just play average football, then I think the Jets have a chance to win this for an hour. I don't mind them on the money line as well. But I locked in the four and a half. And I'm happy betting it again because I just think that there's too much that has gone wrong with San Francisco. You know, the Super Bowl hang over all of that stuff. So that is where I'm at in this game. Yeah, I totally agree with that. And I think actually, I think with the Jets, they're just going to look to try and play defense. Like, I don't think they're going to be in these guns slinger games. So four and a half. And I think it's going to be a really tight game. I think it's going to be three points on either side. So getting a four and a hook. I think that's a great call. I think that's a good bet. Yeah, that's my favorite way of attacking this one. And I don't think it's going to go to five. So if I can, you know, I might hit the four and a half again, just to add to my position there because I do really. I might think about a teaser in there and get it up over like 10. Yeah, getting it out in the four and a half to get it over 10 and a half and then like a since on the back end or, you know, Seattle on the money line or something like that to complete it. I don't mind that either. Yeah, if you're looking for something that you want to tease up, you know, two and a half is going to be the best number to look for. If you're trying to tease, you're like, you know, plus two and a half plus eight and a half as you're going through the keys of. Three, seven and eight. So, you know, the pack, the Packers fit into that mold if you want to want to take that route. So, all right, man. Well, we can wrap it up. I want you to be able to enjoy your draft any final thoughts before we close it. I did pin to the top. I got a Sunday show this week at 10 a.m. Eastern pregame going through all the news and everything like that. So make sure you guys hit the reminder for that one. But any final thoughts before we shut it down. No, that's it, man. I'll be listening in. Sorry. What time do you say that was? 10 a.m. Eastern. And feel free to come up on stage and talk in that one, too. We'd be happy to have your thoughts there. Cool, brother. Sounds good, man. All right. Well, hey, have a great draft. Good luck drafting out of that dreaded 11 spot. Thanks. No, thanks guys for being here. Enjoy the game tomorrow night. We'll be watching some football. 24 hours from now. God bless. Appreciate you being here. And let's have a great season. All right, everybody. Take care. Let's roll. All right. All right.