Notre Dame holds a significant on paper advantage over Texas A&M, but is that how the game will play out? Bryan dives into the matchup between the Irish defense and the improved Aggie offense.
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Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch. $45 up from payment equivalent to $15 per month. New customers on first three month plan only. Taxes and fees extra. Speed slower above 40 gigabytes detail. Part two, let's look at the matchup of the NERM defense against the NERM offense, or the Texan offense. And this is where, like, if you go back and look at the offensive numbers against NERM's offense, A&M's defense, you know, there's somewhat competitive. There's the assumption that the offensive line for NERM will struggle enough to where it makes it a battle that A&M potentially could win. But NERM has the advantage in the past game. A&M has the advantage in the run game, but they were both good last year. Overall scoring, NERM has clearly the advantage. When you flip the argument to the other side, it's not close. It's far bigger gap between the A&M offense last year and the NERM defense last year. Notre Dame will have the same defense it did last year. Schematically, obviously, that's the new players. A&M's going to look a whole lot different. And that's going to make this a very intriguing breakdown to dive into, because when you look at Texas A&M running the football last year, it's an offense that's struggled to run the football. They rank 92nd in the country in yards per game. 95th in yards per play, 100th and 100th in yard 20 plus runs. They only had 11 and they ranked 42nd in tackles for loss allowed. Notre Dame's run defense last year ranked 28th overall, 24th in yards per attempt, 48th in 20 plus yard runs allowed. They were 53rd in tackles for loss. This isn't a team that generated a ton of tackles for loss last season. But the overall numbers clearly give the advantage to Notre Dame. That's when you have to then factor in, okay, well, this is a different offense than it was last year. The offensive system last year was geared towards what? It was geared towards throwing the footballs. Bobby Petrino, Jim Bill Fisher, they wanted to throw the football. Well, enter Colin Klein, who is a guy that believes in the little bit different. He wants to be balanced. Colin Klein at Kansas State last year led an offense that ranked 12th in the country last season in total rushing yards at 204.1 yards per game. Now the impressive part about that is not only did they rank 14th in rushing yards last year, they did or 12th in rushing yards last year. They did that the year after they lost Deuce Vaughn. They actually ranked, they didn't run for as many yards as they did in 2022. They actually ran for 208.3 yards in 2022, but they ranked higher. Cause remember last year you had some clock rules that made things different. So they were 15th in rushing in 2022 with Deuce Vaughn. They jumped up to 12th in rushing last year without Deuce Vaughn, where DJ Giddens was your top running back. So he's a guy that likes to run the football. That's great. Sure. You like to run the football, but you know how to run the football. And Colin Klein certainly knows how to run the football and has done a great job developing good rushing teams at Kansas State during his tenure there. They ranked 56, 63rd in his first year as offensive coordinator. So we saw a very big jump in his two seasons, his last two seasons rushing the football from, from Colin Klein. And of course, let's not forget this is a guy that as a quarterback in college, ran for a thousand yards one season and 27 touchdowns. I think we brought that up the other day. I think it was 2011. Yeah, it ran for 1141 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2011. And then in 2020, in 2012, he ran for 925 yards and 23 touchdowns. The guy rushed for 50 touchdowns by himself his last two years. So guess what? He's going to try to run the football. It's going to be way different than it was for A&M in the past couple of years. They're going to run the inside zones in the duos, but they're going to run a lot of gap scheme, a lot of pin and pull stuff. They're not going to rely on just having bullies up front. They're going to try to create creases in the run game. They're going to try to use their tight end alignments and motions and shifts to create some spacing that is going to give them some, ideally in theory, give them some advantages in the run game. You know, the thought being the more gaps that we can create, the more gaps you have to be accountable for, the more surfaces we have to try to create run lines. And so you're going to see that they went out and added. I think Trevor talked about this yesterday. They added three new tight ends to their roster. There's a reason for that because Colin Klein likes to use the tight ends. And so you're going to see a much different running team than last year. Now, you can look at the stats and say, yeah, they got a ways to go. And there's no doubt they've got a ways to go. But you kind of have to look at those stats and say, okay, they may tell us something about the offensive line. And that's an issue for Texas A&M. There's no doubt. They've got good enough. I mean, Lavion Moss and Amari Daniels are certainly good enough to be, to put up very good numbers as sure if the line plays well. And as Al Golden said yesterday, and we said the same thing yesterday, they expect that Connor Wegman's going to run more this year, because that's kind of what Colin Klein does. So I do expect A&M to be a better running team this year than they were last year. The question is going to be, how much better and when do they get better? Are they going to be better immediately against Notre Dame? Or is it going to take them some games to kind of get rolling? Do they maybe struggle a little bit against Notre Dame early, but then go out and get better and better as the season goes on? And I often talk about, you know, when people say, oh, you lose early, you're done. I often talk about that Ohio State 2014 season is sort of my example for why I just think that is just an incredible reaction, but when you think about that Ohio State team, and you think about, you know, what changed for them that year? Well, they couldn't really run a ball early in the year. As the run game finally took off, that became a much more dangerous team. And that allowed them to go out there and have a lot of success that season. And I think it was year three in Tom Herman, but again, that was year three. What this is year one of Colin Klein and game one of Colin Klein. So how quickly can he really get that going? That's going to be the question. And that's going to determine a lot about this matchup because, look, I'll get into the past game next, but just big picture. I don't know that Texas A&M can score enough points to win if they can't at least somehow establish the run game. 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I don't think that's going to happen but they have to at least make Notre Dame work in the run game to then maybe you have to insert your your safety a little bit more to stop the run. You have to use your safeties to come down and account for the quarterback runs the cutbacks or the pen of pools and hey we're going to just we're going to use our motions and get you kind of an overloaded surface and just kind of down block kick out our alignment and say hey if you're going to stop this run your safeties and corners are going to have to stop it all right cool so Notre Dame flies their safeties and corners come down next you know they're running some sort of you know whether it be a half-back pass or most likely sort of an option pass or some kind of bootleg or something along those lines in RPO where you bang down on your backside safety and you're just hitting that glance route behind it for a big play there's a lot of things that A&M is going to do differently this year that present different options and if they can't but if they can't get the run game going at all if Notre Dame is able to shut that down then then they're going to have a very tough time scoring enough points to win outside of turnovers and special teams giving them easy scores that that's really going to be the key they're going to have to figure out a way to get the run game going for Notre Dame you want to keep A&M off schedule it's the opposite way I talked about on the other side of the ball you want to get them into passing down you want to force Connor Wegman to beat you from the pocket not that he's not a talented player can't do it but again that's where you think you have an advantage just like A&M wants to slow down the Notre Dame run game and get them in third and longs same thing is true on this side Connor Wegman's a very good football player not overly experienced he's a very talented football player but like a lot of young quarterbacks he's not a guy you want sitting in the pocket on third and seven or second and twelve or second and eleven or second and nine all day thrown to football because he doesn't have the receiving core to go out there and really hurt you and some of those big moments like let's say Ohio State did last year with Kyle McCord because he had a mecca bucca and he had Marvin Harrison Jr. and he had yeah Julian Fleming so even though you pretty much shut the pass game down for most of the game they were able to make enough of those big play those big not big plays like long plays but clutch plays moving the chains on fourth and seven converting the third 19 to be able to win the game and that's going to be the question is can they get to the 17 that Ohio State was able to get to last year to beat Notre Dame that's going to be the key if the Notre Dame offense doesn't get better and so that's going to be a big part of this game Notre Dame stopping the run game and in making this a pocket game for Connor Wegman because if he does that they're gonna they're gonna struggle because that's not where Colin Klein's offense thrives and it's not where you want to put this team in that situation but it's going to come down to these numbers have to play themselves out on Saturday it's going to be a big key this game get to the next part of the matchup and that's the pass game matchup this is a very intriguing aspect of this game because again I just broke down the numbers for Colin Klein right and in the run game improvement is going to be it's going to be a lot better there's going to be a lot of run game improvement from Colin Klein how much how early all those things are going to factor into it into this particular matchup but he's going to eventually get it going the flip side is true on the other right in the other side because last year Texan M did throw for a lot of yards they were 30th in the country and passing yards 23rd in yards per attempt 36 and yards per completion those are all respectable numbers 21st in the country in 30 plus yard passes 30 fifth in efficiency and when you consider that they played all but four games with their backup quarterbacks that that factors into it they would have they would have been even higher had Connor Wegman knock on down last season right like that's just the reality of it if you still if you're still a top 30 pass offense and you spent two-thirds of the year that you're starting quarterback those are good numbers now the question is going to be can they continue those numbers because when you look at the other side and I talked about how good Colin Klein's offense was last year at run into football they were not a great passing team last year they finished 54th in the country in passing yards per game and they finished 60th in the country in yards per pass attempt last season and Kansas State last season also finished 51st in passer rating 30 touchdowns 10 picks they were a team that in my view 72nd in completion percentage and that was with a quarterback that I keep being told by national media people is the top five Heisman finalists or candidate for this season which I I say sarcastically I just don't buy that at all but they're not he he doesn't have the intricate NFL pro style sort of scheme that Bobby Petrino had and that Jimbo Fisher had what he's going to do however is he's going to build the pass game around the run game and that's why I say it's so important to stop the run because if they can't run the football I don't know that Colin Klein's the kind of coach that's going to be able to generate enough scheme wise in the pass game to beat you now where I do think Texas A&M presents some matchups is they're not a team that's going to provide a ton of speed we'll get into that here in a second but they have really good size today Walker 64 no at Thomas the 66 their guys that if you have to commit too many resources to the run game to stop it can win someone on ones just by simply out playing you for the football they are going to use their tight ends a lot more than they have in the past in my opinion A&M's or Kansas State's leading receiver last year was a tight end you know will will they be able to get that kind of production this season we'll find out but you compare that top 30 pass game last year new coordinator was more of a top 50 kind of guy and you're matching that up against what is one of the best pass defenses in the country and one of the interesting things about this matchup that just kind of shows me that the national media really didn't pay attention in Notre Dame last year like they look at though in one breath mentioned Benjamin Morrison and Xavier Watts and then next breath talk about how they're you know how's Notre Dame going to you know handle the Connor Wegman and the athleticism of the A&M offense and and I just I kind of kind of chuckle a little bit about that because I mean this is a Notre Dame team then the last two years has faced CJ Stroud has faced Caleb Williams twice has faced Drake May has faced Tanner McKee Jern Hall I mean we can go down the list of quarterbacks that this team has faced last couple years and guess what the pass offense pass defense has been lights out Spencer Rattler pass defense has been outstanding in almost all of those instances you're talking about a nerding team last year to finish in the top five in fewest passing yards per game fewish passing yards per attempt they tied Michigan for the fewest touchdown passes allowed they ranked number one in college football last year in pass efficiency defense and I don't have the stat on here and I should add it this year but Notre Dame I believe finished second last season in fewest lowest completion percentage allowed yes they were second behind only Florida State last season at 52.4 so that's another category they're worst category that I have marked here in passing last year was yards allowed per completion and they ranked 12th they only they ranked seventh and most passing plays allowed by 30 yards and more and if you look at at least off top I had three of those 30 plus yard pass plays came in late in games when Notre Dame was winning by a bunch and and so that that's an aspect of it that you factor in as well as is A&M going to really be able to protect or throw the football effectively enough against this pass defense that returns to all Americans you know and they're two transfers or a six year and a fifth year senior and your only young guy in the starting lineup is Christian Gray who might be your most physically gifted player that you have at the position so this is an area where Notre Dame has a big advantage in my opinion they have a personnel advantage they have a schematic advantage the question is going to be does the run game of of Texas A&M improve enough and play well enough to force this into a throwing game if it is forced into a throwing game it's a definitely advantage Notre Dame if it becomes about balance and and A&M's allowed to throw a lot of second and short third and short to medium situations where they they still have the threat of the run and they can use their rpo game and their play action game and their misdirection game with pass and all their motions and shift to try to generate guys free that's when you can get in trouble. Hey Irish Breakdown listeners it's Urban Meyer this fall the game changes join me Heisman Trophy winner Mark Ingram and broadcaster Rob Stone as we bring you a new perspective on football and culture every week we will be joined by the biggest name in sports and talk about everything inside and outside of the lines let us guide you through a new era of college football watch triple option on YouTube or listen on Apple podcast spotify or wherever you get podcasts this episode is brought to you by Honda when you test drive the all new prologue ev there's a lot that can impress you about it there's the class leading passenger space the clean thoughtful design and the intuitive technology but out of everything what you'll really love most is that it's a Honda visit Honda.com/ev to see offers that's that's really where you can say hey look can this can this Notre Dame team go out and stop the run if they stop the run then I think that leads right into a dominant match up here and so that's what that's what's going to make this very very intriguing this matchup looking overall last year Notre Dame ranked seventh and scoring defense A&M ranked 25th and scoring offense Notre Dame ranked fifth and fewer yards allowed they ranked fifth and fewer yards per play A&M ranked 50th and total offense 49th and yards per play they ranked second and red zone defense they ranked third and red zone touchdown defense A&M ranked 48th and 82nd Notre Dame ranked 30th and third down defense A&M was 32nd and third down offense that's the only one that's really close in this matchup Notre Dame ranked 15th in 30 plus yards the yard plays allowed A&M ranked 35th and 30 plus yard plays gained Notre Dame ranked 13th and turnovers gained and A&M ranked 112th last year in turnovers loss actually the 13th number is not accurate let me go see what their turnover numbers were last year I believe that is incorrect let me just pull this up real quick and make sure that I am okay so they ranked that last year they ranked 33rd and turnovers lost their offense so the 112 is incorrect they lost I don't know actually what I have there they had 13 gained which ranked 110th last season they were 33rd and turnovers lost so that's a better number than that that number shows but Notre Dame ranked 13th and turnovers gained so when you look at this matchup and you look at this game the thing you have to ask yourself is is Notre Dame in a situation where they can control the matchups the way that they're supposed to where they have the advantages and can they can they get into situations where let me just I'm just gonna put that person time out I just don't have the I don't have the patience today for just stupidity I really don't so I'll have to have Vince edit this part out I just don't have I just don't have time for just stupid people I really don't if you look at the on paper matchup and you look at how this game is gonna play out there's the concern the angst that Notre Dame has Notre Dame fans have which is justified can the offensive line hold up against what is going to be in my opinion it is one of the best defensive lines at Cox football and what I think is going to be the one is one of the best young middle line backers in Cox football and Tory and York who I'm a very very big fan of by the way can they hold up in that matchup that could be a scenario where that the reason that there is understandable angst because that matchup is such that depending on how much a&m dominates it it could impact every other part of the game if you can't if you get dominated up front then you're gonna struggle to run the ball if you struggle to run the ball it's gonna be harder to throw the football if you can move the football and poor score points that puts way more pressure on your defense it keeps the game close it meets Colin Klein doesn't have to get into his but you know too deep in his bag of tricks he can play the field position battle and then he can do some things schematically with the run game with motions with shifts with leverages different things like that to hopefully create enough big plays to win a 17-14 game like they did last year with like Ohio State did last year and that's going to really be the big key to this game is that matchup right there what's not being discussed enough in my opinion is while that is a legitimate concern an absolute legitimate concern if a&m wins this game it's going to be about their defensive line front seven dominating Notre Dame and in turnovers that's what it's going to come down to if but what's not being discussed enough is Notre Dame has the same ability to do to the Texas A&M offense what they expected A&M defense to do to the Notre Dame offense there's this expectation that Texas A&M is going to dominate the Notre Dame offense okay I understand where that's coming from and when you look at the numbers and you look at what Texas A&M was last year again 36 in the country in scoring defense that's not bad when you consider some of the issues they had on offense when you look at their their their past defense last year you know not great their run defense was excellent last year they add Nick Skowertin to the mix they add Solomon Deschiel to the mix they ask Scooby Williams to the mix they add uh I think they had three other d-line transfers who were good football players that are being added to the mix but that's going against a Notre Dame offense that was pretty good statistically last year was pretty good outside of playing some elite defenses and just one game with his flat out late in egg against against Louisville but then you look at it and you say but does A&M like does is their defense such that they're just going to completely shut down Notre Dame the way that Ohio State's defense did is that what we're thinking that this offense or this defense is is this A&M defense going to be like Ohio State that's going to be the question maybe it will be and you're adding a great defensive mind in Mike Elko to the equation but Notre Dame is also adding a pretty successful offensive mind and that's where I kind of get frustrated with this conversation is like somebody say like do you think A&M can beat Notre Dame of course Texas A&M can beat Notre Dame Notre Dame lost to a four-loss Clemson team on the road last year folks if Clemson's with eight starters missing can beat Notre Dame if Louisville can beat Notre Dame on the road then of course A&M can beat Notre Dame there's no doubt about it the the frustration that I have is that there's this obsession on focusing on one part of this game I just laid out the numbers to y'all which which side of the ball has the bigger advantage the A&M defense over the Notre Dame offense even though they have no statistical advantage over Notre Dame or the Notre Dame defense against the Texas A&M offense again yards per game and yards per play rushing Notre Dame's defense 28th and 24th A&M's offense 91st and 95th passing Notre Dame's defense in yards per game and yards per temp third and third you return to all Americans in that group A&M's offense 30th and 23rd but their new coach that's being brought in ranks in the 50s in both of those categories right so and then you look at total defense Notre Dame last year and points per game on defense seventh yards per game fifth yards per play fifth A&M ranked 25th 50th and 49th so I'm to believe that a team in Notre Dame who averaged more points per game offensively last year than A&M more yards per play than A&M last year gave up fewer yards per game points per game than A&M last year gave up fewer yards per game last year gave up fewer yards per play dominates A&M in every category is a team that can't handle what A&M's gonna bring to them that that's my frustration with this conversation can A&M win heck yeah they can win this and you guys know my my feelings on Mike Elko I've been saying him here since this show started love Mike Elko great football coach but Notre Dame should should should be expected to win this game there's no question they should be expected to win this game and if they can't that's a problem for me but the expectation should be that Notre Dame is going to go in there and and win and I don't know other than just paranoia and just choosing to be negative I don't see why someone would look at this game and say that A&M is the team that has less to prove than Notre Dame that that's the frustration I have it's like somebody said well Notre Dame tends to lose his game I mean okay last two years Notre Dame has gone seven and four against ranked teams okay you know what Texan M's record against ranked teams his last two years three and seven two of those wins were over a ranked Miami team two years ago who finished five and seven and over a ranked Arkansas team who finished at year seven and six that's two of their three ranked wins in it yet Notre Dame who's got seven wins over ranked opponents the last two years including multiple on the road and then Notre Dame also beat an NC state team who finished most of who was who was ranked most of the year they weren't ranked when they played and you know I just it gets fresh it gets taxing to be honest with you when the same people come on the chat come on the board with non-stop negativity but can't make a sound argument other than I feel that's it I feel I feel like Notre Dame you know can't throw in this situation okay well you have no evidence to back up that that can't happen from with any consent I feel like Notre Dame doesn't ever win these kind of games okay well tell me when A&M does I feel like this I feel like that when everything about this matchup should say that Notre Dame has the advantage does that mean they're even going to win of course it doesn't mean Notre Dame's definitely going to win you that's why you play the games but to sit there and say that that that this is a game that Notre Dame has more to prove than Texas A&M that that that we should assume that Texas A&M has the bet has is in a better situation their name there's no argument other than your in your feelings that has that that that makes you feel that way that's my frustration there's no Matt okay well you have but the A&M D lineings no name well okay last I checked this isn't a jersey scrimmage where it's just the Notre Dame offense against just the Notre Dame defense Notre Dame had one of the ten best defenses of college football last year right I where is the where was the Texas A&M defense it's very good wasn't as good as Notre Dame's Notre Dame's offense was for all the whining about Notre Dame's offense from last year they ranked in the top 10 and scoring where did A&M's offense do last year they ranked 25th at Notre Dame's defense last season ranked in the seventh and scoring defense A&M's defense last year ranked 36th in scoring so again I ask you other than your feelings what's the argument that should make you as a Notre Dame fan or an analyst say that gee I just don't think no name can win this game that that's my problem that can can can A&M win again of course this is not a this isn't gonna be an easy win and I'll have some responses to some of the stuff in the the vice I'll hold about that but Notre Dame has the advantage on paper Notre Dame has had in the last five years it's the other one A&M's got more talent okay based on what recruiting rankings half the players from that team that were ranked number one are gone the last five drafts Notre Dame has had 27 players drafted I think it's 10 in the first two rounds A&M's had 17 guys drafted two in the first two rounds so again other than the fact that they have an SEC logo on their jersey what's the reason for Notre Dame expecting and honestly I kind of feel bad for Texan in fans because if they win this game it's a it's a huge win I mean it is a huge win but the way that Notre Dame's being talked about I wonder if it's going to tamp down some of the excitement over the win and if they lose there's this expectation that they got upset by an inferior opponent when in reality they wouldn't have and and so I just that that's kind of where I'm at is I just I feel like the narrative about this game is as frustrating as any game I've covered in a long time it really is and a friend of mine kind of brought this up he said it reminds him a lot of the 2018 Notre Dame Michigan game where a lot of people felt Notre Dame didn't have a chance they got to replace Quentin Nelson and Mike McLinci and and you know had three new stars and on there and then you know you you lost Equinimi St. Brown and you lost some good players off your defense and and just like you know and this Michigan team is going to be a playoff team and yada yada yada and Notre Dame dominated that game the game was never as close as the final score Notre Dame dominated that game so I just that that's kind of where I'm where I'm at right it just if you're if you're a Notre Dame fan thinking that this is a game that Notre Dame is not the better team than I just I don't know what to tell you either you don't have a good you don't have no clue how what Notre Dame has done or you have you never have never watched A&M in the last five years you know I'm that's that's kind of my I mean like Duke game last year Notre Dame played terrible against Duke last year still won I mean think about that still won played terrible last year so I think A&M has a lot more to prove to Notre Dame however from a practical standpoint of like actual football from a perception standpoint I will agree that this is a much bigger game from Notre Dame than it is Texas A&M there's no doubt from a perception standpoint and hopefully they can go out and get a win so that's going to do it for the stats breakdown I'm going to get into so just a brief talk about game records next and have gonna have some fun with that and then we'll get into our buy so hold so but before we do folks do me a favor hit that like button hit the subscribe but hit the notification bell share this podcast give us a five-star review would greatly appreciate that and as always sign up for the message board at boards.irish breakdown.com [Music] [Music] [Music] [Music] a king supers pharmacy care is making it easy to get vaccinated care is helping you stay protected from flu covid and rsv seasonal vaccines are available seven days a week with evening hours care is giving you a shot at staying healthy this season walk in whenever is best and get multiple vaccines in one visit at your local king supers pharmacy so come and get the protection you need while protecting those around you king supers a world of care is in store visit king supers.com From slash vaccines for more, restrictions and exclusions apply seaside for details.
