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Fuck the rates at barrels, it's Monday, September 9th, there can write for it, you know Sarah's here with you on this episode, get some baseball news you should know as is often the case in September, injuries are piling up, opportunities are bubbling up to the surface as a result of that. So we'll take a look at some changes around the league, got a bunch of mailbag questions we're going to get to, including one looking at some September streamers, some younger starters that have taken on larger roles and their viability for their final starts of the season, can we find some value in that group of pitchers, got some interesting stuff about L.E. daily crews, a question about tipping versus trash can banging, and of course as we have every Monday where the money went, we'll get to that later on in the show, you know, how's it going for you on this Monday? It's going well, it was a nice weekend, we said goodbye to Oakland Stadium with the kids on Saturday to the Coliseum and Friday night was a really exciting game, it was one of those games where they each scored one in the 10th and two in the 11th and one in the 12th and was a walk off in the 13th. But it was a fun weekend in the Coliseum, a little bit of like, you know, there's been a lot of negative energy and I think it's, you know, warranted, but I think to some degree this last weekend, it was like, almost normal, you know, just people rooting for a team that's like getting to be more decent and kind of going, it has a future, but it is weird to kind of root for a team that's here and be like, Oh, they're going to be good soon and then be like somewhere else. Yeah. Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot to unpack with that and we're going to do that as the season winds down, including ace fans, what do you do you're, you could be a free agent now and I've made this argument before you could be a free agent in fanhood at any point in your life. You don't Oh, I've done that a lot for a lifetime contract. I've moved somewhere new and been like, okay, what's a good? What's my new team? Yeah. I just think it's one of those relationships. It doesn't have to be lifetime. It can be. You want to be that way. That's fine to teach their own, but I think sometimes people choose to suffer in a fan base and they don't have to, it's really okay to switch. I will not judge you if you change allegiances a long way. If you do it every season, maybe I'll poke fun at you a little bit for that. But the everyone at least gets one, one move, one time at a minimum. We'll weigh in on that more on a future episode. And this one is forced. So I do have, I have friends who are long, long time, ace fans who actually went on a baseball trip. One of my best friends went on a baseball trip with his daughter and they just, they were basically openly shopping their fandom. They just went to different places. They went to Riggly and bought, you know, a jersey there. They went to Pittsburgh and bought a jersey there and we were just kind of trying them all out. Yeah, you need the equivalent of a realtor to just like bring you around each baseball city with experience. Baseball fandom, realtor. Like a big tour. Well, you're a little used to suffering, I can tell. You're an ace fan. So I can't just put you right into a front runner, like you can't just become a Dodgers fan overnight. Let's, let's, let's ease into it. Maybe a little bit of suffering in Pittsburgh perhaps or. And now I have an idea for a series of shorts. Down series is fans shopping for new team. And down on the post-it note, don't lose that post-it note. If you'd like to interact with us on Discord, we are in the Discord. And now so interact with other fans, be that ace fans or fans of any of the other teams in the league. Could also ask questions for the show as well. It's a great way to send mailbag questions. You get the link for that in the show description. So let's begin today with some baseball news. You should know what Luis Castillo is having an MRI on his hamstring. I saw first that he was having an MRI. I didn't know what part of his body was going to be the focus of that MRI and kind of breed the sigh of relief when it was hamstring and not his shoulder or his elbow. But I think we've looked at Castillo a couple of times this season. And even in the broader scope of looking at how his stuff has really evolved over time, he's aging pretty gracefully. I think the ballpark in Seattle is certainly helping that. This could be a problem though for what's left of the season, especially as the Mariners cling to their slim playoff hopes still technically alive in the AL wildcard race, especially and maybe technically in the AL West race as well. But having all hands on deck would certainly be something they need. Now, where do we go from here with Castillo? Like, I don't think the replacement is necessarily the interesting part of the conversation. It's more like, is it this is this the safe baseline for him, a mid threes ERA, slightly better than league average whip, Ks because of volume, but not necessarily more than a strikeout per inning the way we'd grown accustomed to in recent years because this feels like a natural decline and the number that I'm actually more worried about than anything else is the home run rate, because especially in Seattle for half of his starts, home runs shouldn't be as much of a problem for Luis Castillo as they have been these last two seasons. 53 homers combined in about 372 in a third innings. I do think he took a weird step back on purpose this year with the slider throwing it so so much softer. I think that has negatively impacted his swing strike rate. As you can see, it's the lowest of his career, actually. And he kind of came over to the Mariners and became a little bit more of a foreseen slider guy with a sinker change up base. So he can be a bit of a chameleon where he can change depending on the batter and depending on the needs of the handedness of the batter, the needs, the strengths of the batter. So I do think actually he can have another better season in him. I think there's something weird going on the slider this year that hasn't been great. I'm not going to blame the hamstring on it. I think it looks like a decision he made that was, I don't think it was a great one. So I don't know why that decision was made and I'm sure it was made with his pitching coach and I'm sure he didn't just go off on his own to do that. But I would say that I think he started to throw the slider harder again and I think he'll get back to where he was and I think you can project him for like a three, four or three three next year. I don't think you need to go and change your projections that much for next year. What's good to do is, I think if you see it that way, because I think there's always the risk of falling more into that Jose Barrios class of pitchers where it's usually good. It's not always good and playing the match ups can be a little difficult with pitchers like that. Easier in Seattle and it's pronounced with the splits of, I think, pretty much everybody in that rotation that the home starts are very safe. There was some chatter in our discord that perhaps for some of the younger starting pitchers that maybe we are too comfortable throwing Mariners pitchers on the road given the discrepancies and strikeout rate and ratios that we see from that group. And having heard that they are definitely considering changing the batter's eye if that is the source of some of those splits, what if happens if those splits go away and those Mariners pitchers aren't as safe at home next year? It's a good question. I also see with Castillo, you know, one risk was that, you know, we always had the narrative that like, oh, don't worry about his below. He'll get there and he warms over the course of season. And I think that the risk with something like that is that the warming comes a little bit later and is a little bit less every year as he gets older, right? And you've seen that a little bit this year where 957 for the year, 964 last year, 971 for Luis Castillo the year before that. So the velocity decline is happening right now. The one thing that I do like though is that he has these different pitch types under his hood and he has these different places he can go. I don't think that he will go into full, you know, burios mode just yet. So I feel pretty good about his next couple of years. All right. There you have it. And I think with the contract too, it might be safer to pencil him in than it is to pencil in Gilbert or woo or Miller for the long haul staying in Seattle. Are they traded or yeah, exactly. That's the way I'm looking at Castillo for the keeper and dynasty perspective. But I like that you're a little more optimistic on the skills front than I am. If you look at the velo graphs over the years, that pattern of getting a little more at the end of the season, it's exactly as you describe it. Like you take a line over the last three seasons. It's a gradual decline in velocity, the way you'd expect it to be. So it's kind of what aging gracefully should look like, I think in the case of Castillo. But being able to fill that slider a little harder later in the year has been an encouraging sign. I'm glad you pointed that out because I had not noticed that. Some interesting closers getting opportunities right now and injuries are part of that chaos. As I mentioned up top, Kelvin Foshe, who we talked about a few weeks ago is on the IL. And now it looks like Jesus Tinoco is joining the mix as a list temporary closer. But maybe he's actually showing enough to battle Foshe or anybody else. The Marlins might bring in between now and the start of next season for some saves in 2025. So how are you stacking up Tinoco to the likes of Justin Martinez in Arizona or Edwin Uceda for the Rays, Luke Weaver is popping up and getting some saves now for the Yankees. Porter Hodge has been discussed a little bit on some recent episodes. How do you kind of look at that cluster? Do you see any standout guys in terms of stuff and opportunity that make a little more sense than the rest of the field? I mean, I'm assuming that Michael Copac is owned in this situation. I think that he's my favorite of the bunch in terms of newly minted closers. And I have a piece coming up with Sam Blum tomorrow that's going to be about the changes he's made to his pitching mix, this different philosophy and why it works so much now. But it was something that I have a lot of Copac shares because, A, he's one of those SP eligible closers that's in a couple of weeks is super valuable. And then B, I just always thought the stuff would translate. And I think it's translating now and he's on a great team and they're going to give him save chances. So, Copac is in another group in the sort of, what's the other group? Sort of Porter Hodge, Justin Martinez, Jesus Tenoko or were you speaking specifically of the Marlins? Just looking at this entire group, I mean, I think when you're looking for these late season save sources, it's a lot of deciding if you're going to either get more opportunities because of just longer runway or better team, like trying to balance that out is really tricky this time of year. I like Porter Hodge second best in terms of stuff and quality of team and likelihood that he's the closer. The way they're using Nate Pearson suggests that maybe there's something to this starter situation next year. They're using him more in the middle innings for two innings at a time. And so, I think there might be something to the smoke around the idea that he might be a starter next year. And so, Hodge looks really safe and the stuff is great. The only little wrinkle I have is that I didn't want to start him this week because of Colorado. He's going to Colorado. But yeah, I think he's good, you know, Dennis Santana's in this mix. I think Dennis Santana's on the lower end just because they have Chapman and Bednar that can get right at any moment, you know, and Santana's stuff is inferior to all of them. Tenoko is my favorite probably in the Marlins pen. I just don't know how many situations they'll give him. So I have Justin Martinez closer to Porter Hodge as a big stuff guy, good pen. With Justin Martinez, though, there's been a little bit of struggle recently and there are other options in that pen. And so that makes me a little bit more nervous about Martinez was Hodge. So I guess I would rank them Copec and just in a general sort of, you know, free agency. Who should you pick up off of the wire? I would rank them Copec, assuming Ryan Walker's gone, so Copec and Walker up there. Hodge above Martinez, Tenoko right there by himself in this interesting, yeah, just pick him up. He's probably the guy. There are some other guys. They're not going to give him any opportunities. And then I think Dennis Santana last. I don't know. Does anybody have missed? I think Weaver is the other name, Weaver's skills. Weaver's skills look identical to Tenoko's in terms of K and walk rate so far this year. The ratios are almost the same. The ERA, the low threes, Wip below one, kind of remarkable how similar those two guys are statistically anyway. But I think with the Yankees, I have a really hard time getting a read on their intent. Are they comfortable using Weaver all the way through September and possibly deep into October? I mean, of all the things Luke Weaver could have turned into in his career, closer wasn't necessarily something I thought about with him at the beginning of his career. I thought he was going to be a wide arsenal starter and kitchen sink guy that could at least be effective for a long time as a starter, but he's really taken to short reliefs, having a great season. So maybe this is like the second chapter of his career. And we're talking about Weaver as a guy that could be in the mix next year too. He's got a club option with the Yankees. Clearly the love for Clay Holmes is fading a little bit. So maybe this is a better opportunity short and long term that I'm giving a credit for even though I've been into Weaver and leagues with solds and auto new all season long. This is the first time we're having him in a roto league has actually made a lot of sense. Yeah, I think he's got to be the favorite for me. And one of the things you'll see with Holmes is the stuff plus is high, but it's really centered around his breaking ball. And if you look at the stuff plus on his sinker, it's 80 this year, which is not ideal. And so if you run through the other options, the guys who have holds in that bullpen, you see the same sort of thing, Jake Cousins, high stuff plus, but it's all in the break ball 79 on the sinker for Jake Cousins. He has four holds. Tommy Conley is has a great change up and a pretty good slider. Both of those keep his stuff plus high has three holds. His stuff plus on the sinker is 90 on his four seems 58. So none of those guys have good stuff plus on their on their fast balls. And I think that's just something you need from your closer. It's like sometimes they're going to need to throw a fastball and try to throw us by somebody. Just look at what Chapman's done with bad command, his whole career. He's just had great stuff on the fastball and it's been served him well even into, you know, late into his career. So most of these guys, you know, Tim Hill, it's kind of a funky guy. It's not a guy. I think you want closing and Mark Leiter Jr. is just not, not much. So I don't think they have any other, any other options. I think it's actually going to be Luke Weaver and I would put Weaver. I think ahead of everybody I've mentioned other than maybe Copac because it's a great team. I think they're going to settle on him. Yeah, it's definitely possible. I was hoping earlier in the year it would happen, but hey, better late than never, especially if you're in a situation where saves are particularly tight in the final weeks of the season. Speaking of the Yankees, by the way, Nestor Cortez was in the bullpen piggy backing behind Clark Schmidt this weekend. That's a little surprising. I mean, Nestor Cortez is a good pitcher. He's seventh in the player raider in the last 30 days. I know Brian Cashman in the Yankees front office don't really care what the fan graph's player raider has to say about Nestor Cortez, but kind of makes you think you mentioned this before the show. Maybe this is similar to the Jordan Montgomery situation a few years ago, where even though they have pretty good rotation depth, trading Nestor Cortez seems like it could create a problem if injuries strike in 2025, but you don't get the sense that they necessarily want him as part of their mix much longer if they're handling him this way relative to the other options. Fan graphs has decided it's a six man rotation. No. Well, I mean, maybe they'll go to that depending on schedule. Maybe he was piggybacking on Clark Schmidt because Clark Schmidt was coming up and there wasn't sure how many innings had him. How many pitches he had in him? So as Clark Schmidt adds more pitches, maybe it makes sense. The other way that it makes sense, one way it doesn't make sense is I think the Garrett Cole is clearly the best pitcher on this team, right? And by going to a six man, you may cost yourself a Garrett Cole start that you would have otherwise had. Same thing for Luis Hill. We're like, those two are probably the best two starting guys. Why wouldn't you just do something where with a six man, it's very obvious. Luis Hill would get one more start if it was a five man rotation, you know, he would get a start on the last day of the season, maybe one of those last days and he might be the difference between winning the division or not, right? However, if you say, well, we're going to the playoffs either way and Garrett Cole is, you know, just now sort of coming online. And even now still doesn't quite have the same stuff that he had last year, I'd rather not spend a lot of Garrett Cole bullets. And Luis Hill is running out of innings, you know what I mean? I don't necessarily want to spend a lot of those bullets on the regular season. We'll just let the regular season, the bats decide our pitching is good enough. And this way we'll have more innings out of heel and cold, maybe better innings out of heel and cold in the postseason, which might be worth more to us than necessarily winning the division. So I could see it going to a six man rotation. If it doesn't, I think holding Cortez is a great idea to find out if they are going to six man rotation. They go to six man rotation, he gets Boston at home, Oakland on the road and Pittsburgh at home. So maybe that first start isn't amazing, but the next two would be in maybe in your head to head playoffs for Nestor Cortez with great starts. So worth keeping Cortez if you can to find out what happens. And then the deepest leagues may be worth keeping Cortez because he may steal some wins from heel and Schmidt coming in in the third or fourth or whatever. Yeah. That's a really good point. And if you look at the way they are lined up, if they keep it as a six man rotation, I think that would be Garrett Cole is basically their Saturday starter, each of the final three weeks of the season. And if they were to be in a position to not have to play in the wildcard round, then I think that would line up for like start even, yeah, they could have the option to do it. And even if they had to use them, then he'd still be back, I think, before the end of the wildcard series, at least be able to pitch the last game of it. So there is like a calculated like, here's the scenarios that could happen. We got a couple of off days. They have flexibility with all six of those guys healthy. They have two off days, the next two Mondays. So they could also skip and maybe get a lot of different ways that one could play out, but just an interesting thing to see him following because he's a good enough starter to just be a starter. Yeah, we had a little mini debate about, you know, I was making a reference to Jordan Montgomery where I feel this is very similar where they've developed a guy, you know, from inside. It's a success for their player development, both of them. Jordan Montgomery and Nestor Cortez very much a success because not a lot of sort of draft capital and stock, but credible major league starting pitchers that have had some really good times in the major leagues. And yet the Yankees don't seem to value them too highly. I mean, they traded away Jordan Montgomery to get Harrison Bader because I guess they didn't think they were going to start in the postseason and the way they're treating Cortez now says, they're not going to start Cortez in the postseason. They don't see him as a postseason starter, which means he could be traded anytime, you know, and we've had a little mini debate Cortez versus Jordan Montgomery. I think I'm taking Cortez. Yeah. And this got weirder stuff. So it's like a weirder, you know, I know the VeeLo isn't great, but the VeeLo isn't great for Jordan Montgomery either. And Cortez has like a almost unique fastball. It's a, it's a cool fastball. In fact, it's like similar to Copax. It's just eight miles an hour slower. Just the lot slower and we're talking about Montgomery closer to peak Montgomery, not present Montgomery versus Cortez, just looking at their body of work within the Yankees organization. I think Cortez has just been a level better. And that's, that's a really good picture. Again, that's why I'm so surprised at how things are going as far as that usage. But it's nice to have six starters available in September. A lot of teams are scrambling throwing guys out there that, you know, we're at AA a few weeks ago, right? We've talked about the angels and some of the things they've had to do. Even the Orioles who they're fighting and not, you know, they, they're not sitting pretty when it comes to their rotation. I did see some news that, you know, Grayson Rodriguez is headed towards a late return. I think I'm still holding him in one leg, which is like, Oh, we get that one last start out of him. And it's going to be like a four inning start, you know? But there, the one I'm reading between the lines, it's going to be, it's going to touch and go. Like, if you really need the Grayson Rodriguez roster spot, I think you can let it go mostly. With big wireless providers, what you see is never what you get, somewhere between the store and your first month's bill, the price you thought you were paying magically skyrockets. With mid mobile, you'll never have to worry about gotchias ever again. When mid mobile says $15 a month when you purchase a three month plan, they mean it. No complicated bills and no upcharges. All plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text delivered on the nation's largest 5G network. 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Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fennern, Smith Incorporated registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor. Member SIPC. Well, if you're doing that, you're probably doing it for a relatively unproven starter. But that's the way it works in September. So we got a lot of great questions on our Discord. One from Farnsworth for today's show. I wonder if we could discuss some of the young arms and streamability down the stretch. So that includes Zevi Matthews. We really liked upon arrival, at least by the stuff metrics. I know it's been a couple of bumpy starts for him more recently. As like Jack Leiter, who just had 20 swings and misses against the Angels recently. And then even Cade Povitch, who's getting an opportunity in part because of the Grayson Rodriguez injury that you just mentioned, having a slightly different pitch mix this time around with the Orioles. So who are you looking at kind of in this next group, guys, that maybe have been rostered in 15 team leagues, but have been more fringy for more shallow formats that are up and down on rosters and might actually be available to help with a handful of quality starts here down the stretch. It's a lot. It's, it's, I think it's just really schedule and format dependent. You know, you're like, if you're in the auto new points league, you just can't give up the homers, you know, and it becomes a lot for me about parks, you know, like there are times where I would love to start Dean Kramer and there are times I do not want to start Dean Kramer, you know. And so, you know, they're like, you know, parks are a big deal, you know, if you're in a quality start league, how deep can they go is a big deal. And if you're in a weekly league, is it a two start week or not, you know, so it's kind of hard to talk about these players in any uniform manner because it's so different for your, for your schedules, but you know, somebody that I, that I'm trying to pick up right now is Jack Lider, and it's, it's just for that Seattle start. You know, it's a, it's a guy with great stuff whose command has gotten a little bit better and who will at least strike out a lot of guys and I'm hoping for, you know, five and two thirds in a win with a lot of strikeouts, you know, the Seattle offense isn't great. That's one where the park, the stuff, you know, all of it lines up in a way and the affordability, the availability, you know, all these things that line up, they have to be good enough, but available and fit into your lineup and do the right things for you. So Lider's been somewhat, I've kind of circled, yeah, we've talked a little bit about how he's been able to make those adjustments, just seeing him get through five innings and consecutive starts at the big league level and having the six K's against the angels with all those swings and misses, all of those things are, are big steps in the right direction for him. The numbers are triple A were finally good. I mean, there's been no point since being drafted where you look at a stop for Jack Lider and say he did really well there by results. At least you could say at triple A this year, things that were much, much better. 351 ERA, 126 whip, 110 K's in 77 innings. I mean, that should pour it over to a useful back end starter at the very least. And I think you definitely take that chance against the team like Seattle. I mean, you like Edward Cabrera, you know, Denver Cabrera is on the road in Washington. Hmm. I feel like Jack Lider is Edward Cabrera. No, he's more similar. He's very similar, but I would rather, would I have Jack Lider, you know, against Seattle or, you know, Edward Cabrera in Washington. I think I would rather have Jack Lider as the decision I made. What are you doing with Zebi Matthews right now? I mean, I think it's pretty clear the twins need to see what he can do. Like they need to use him for these next several turns. It appears, right? So the schedule is, I think home against the angels is a start this week. So even if you've been worried about him, you probably want to throw him out there in that matchup, he's got a two step, both on the road if the calendar holds next week for Cleveland and Boston. And then in his final start of the regular season, he'd have the Orioles at home, which is a pretty tough assignment. But I think at least for the sake of the angels start, that had been a go for this week for me and a lot of leagues. And then the two step, you might be playing the volume game. You probably use them just because you need innings and a shot and a couple of wins in a lot of instances. But what do you think has been the issue early on here with Zebi Matthews? Like why is he running an ERA north of seven at this point with an arsenal as good as what he's shown and with control that was just absurd like we talked about when he was promoted? Yeah, I don't really know other than the one game that he got blown up. He didn't get to his slider very much. And I'm wondering if that just means that because he only pitched two innings, is he very much like an established the fastball guy? Like could he throw more of his mix right from the beginning and keep them off balance because he does have that four-pitched mix and none of his pitches I think is necessarily like a elite pitch, right? So I think he needs to be kind of a twenty five, twenty five, twenty five guy where he just keeps them on their on their heels by always mixing it up. And yes, that means they maybe get two more looks at the cutter before the fourth inning or fifth inning, but he may not be a guy who goes seven anyway. He's only going five and any of his starts. So if he's only going to go five, then don't worry so much about what's going to happen the third time through the order against a guy you may never see him a third time. So rather mix it all up from the beginning. That would be my suggestion to him as a pitching coach as somebody who has to use him for fantasy. I'm going to use him in this angels game. That two step is just a little bit terrifying for me in terms of those offenses in those parts and I get it if your ratios are all set, then maybe throws every Matthews in Boston and Cleveland and and just be like, I hope I'm hoping to get, you know, 10 innings one win, you know, he's going to give up six or seven. I mean, couldn't he like what do you think he'll give up? I think he'll give up six or seven and those two starts combined. Yeah. I mean, that's that seems reasonable as long as he gets you 10 innings in a win with it. Maybe you live to tell the tale because maybe you get nine or 10 Ks to go along with it as well. I mean, so much of that damage came in one bad start. It's all it's all it takes when you've only got a handful of opportunities in the big leagues. So even if it's a little more good command, good control with kitchen sink stuff, I think the arsenal's wide enough where I would tend to trust it. I'm more in than out despite that that meltdown and we'll learn a little bit more in this angel's start. I know it's against worst competition, but if he can dominate the angels, then you can feel a little better about competing against the Guardians and Red Sox, I feel like. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a good way to put it. As far as Kade Povich goes, I know you weren't really high on Povich out of the box. Pitched really well at triple A, got a chance earlier in the season, got sent back down. He's come back to the Orioles, throwing his curve ball a bit more, getting away from the sinker a little bit. And I think he's also added some sweeper usage to like 17% on the sweeper when we saw him back in June and July, that was closer to like 10% in both of those months. So the new version of Kade Povich, does that slightly increase your interest? I mean, being on a good team and being in a good home park, that certainly puts him in that streamer bucket more often than not. But has he done enough to be more than just an on and off the roster guy for you? No. He's very much match of dependent today at Boston. I am not throwing him. And that means that even though he's a two-starter this week, I'd have a hard time throwing him in two-star weeks, even though the second one's at Detroit. So if you're in a weekly league, he's sort of out for me. I think I'm that worried about that at Boston start for me. If it's a bad fastball, there's no real elite secondary. He's trying to kitchen sink it, but he doesn't necessarily have the elite command of other guys. So I'm not really into this. I love that at Detroit start. If it was just that at Detroit start, I would take it, and he's got verse Detroit later. So if you're in a daily league, there's two Detroit starts in there that I'd probably start him for, but that at Minnesota to end the season is sort of 50/50 for me. So it's a big no, and then two yeses that are not timed correctly for weekly leagues. So it's kind of a guy that if you're in daily leagues and you're looking at that at Detroit start, yeah, don't hesitate, take that, but you know, at Minnesota would be a kind of a dividing line where I'm not sure I would eat and use them for that. Yeah, that's going to be just a, what's the situation that last week? Is it all hands just throw anybody you can or protecting ratios? That might be a scenario where I would steer away from that last start from Cade Pofitch. We are getting a lot of questions about A's starters and they're getting more mileage out of some guys and expected as Voldo Bido has been very good. And someone that has probably made his way up to a lot of 10 and 12 team leagues in the last few weeks. He has a two step this week at Houston at the White Sox. I get the sense that most people would say the second start is so good that they'll take the risk with the first one. So in weekly formats, I expect him to be in a ton of lineups, but where I think there's more uncertainty and opportunity for rostering guys, Mitch Spence gets to start against the White Sox on Friday, JT Jin is in the mix here too. JT Jin. What do you think about these other guys the A's have been throwing out there in their rotation? I mean, is there something there at least in these layup type matchups or when they're at home? Like, how are you trying to use that group behind Bido who sort of earned our trust a bit more over the past month? I prefer them at home. I think the only one that I really want to start away from home is probably Bido. He has two good above average fastballs by Stuff Plus. I think it's just a question, he's a little bit got the hair up his nose in terms of command. Some games, the command is not there and some games it's there. So you're just hoping that the command is there for that at Houston game should be good for the White Sox. He's got the Yankees at home, which is a tough matchup but at least he's home and then he's at Seattle in the season. So I'm a guy who's probably starting him in three out of those four, maybe all four of those. So I like him the best. Joey Estes is a guy who like at home because he's a command artist and I think if you just suppress balls in play with a command artist, that's a really good combo I think because he's not going to walk guys and then the park will keep him from giving up homers by being too much in the middle zone. So Joey Estes, unfortunately though, only has Texas left but he ends the season well. So if your playoffs or your season goes all the way to the end, Joey Estes versus Texas at Seattle is a pretty good ending. That's what I'd like for him. Spence is a guy I only want to start at home, bit of a kitchen sink guy who's figured out a cut fastball and some of it works but he just makes me nervous anywhere but home and his only home start that I really would circle is versus Texas September 25th. So I'm actually in a tough spot where I've had Spence for matchup play all season and a lot of leagues and I'm considering dropping him just because, you know, I'm looking at that at Chicago White Sox start for Spence. I'm like, if I don't start him there, then I might as well drop him and then see if I can even get him back at the end, you know, it's like, he's really the dividing line for me in that rotation. Yeah, seems completely fair and yeah, the schedule and where they're pitching is a big, big part of whether or not you can actually trust a few of those A's options in the final couple of weeks. I did see David Peterson getting up into the 70 over 70% range for roster ship on CBS but there might be a handful of shadow leagues where he's out there. You were mentioning him earlier in the year as someone that was making some adjustments and changing up his arsenal just a little bit. What do you make of Peterson at this point, he's running a sub three ERA for the season. The whip doesn't necessarily go along with it, but this is by results the best version of David Peterson that we've seen really since his rookie year back in 2020. Yeah, one thing that I like and that stuff plus really likes is that he is going to the sinker more than the foreseam. He's always had this weird foreseam shape that wasn't ideal and I'd like that he still throws both of them but I like that he's been upping the sinker usage because I think it's this better pitch. The other thing that I can say about Peterson is that as a lefty he's, you should probably, I don't know what the number is but you should probably bump up his stuff plus a little bit. Lefties are rarer so batter see them less often and what we found is that we're going to have to make an adjustment in the off season where we just put our finger in the model and say lefties get plus two, you know, just to make it line up the way that it should, I think. So, you know, if you're talking about a guy with 96 stuff plus below average locations and an extremely good pitchers park that they pitches in, you kind of get the sense of where he's at. Maybe a little bit ahead of the Pence line for me but somebody that I prefer to start at home, let's see what the schedule says, he's got at Toronto, I think I'm okay with that one actually. It looks like they're running a one, two, three, four, five, six man rotation right now with Blackburn coming back so there is some danger that all of these matchups will change but verse Washington, I'm taking versus Philly is borderline at Milwaukee to end the season is borderline so I think it's somebody that I want in the short term that I may drop for the last week of the season. Yeah, that last weekend series in Milwaukee could be a series in which, you know, maybe the Brewers are still jockeying for a first round buy or maybe they're resting guys because they're fate as the three seeds been determined, maybe the Mets are playing for their lives just trying to get in to possibly play the Brewers in the first round. There's a lot of scenarios that could unfold in that series. Right. I want to start Peterson in that Milwaukee season in that Milwaukee one of their resting churio and like resting people, you know, I mean, like, yeah, give it a couple guys a day off. Yeah. Yeah, definitely possible. That's the funny thing with the last week of the season, like we just don't know what it's really going to look like from a who needs what perspective at that point who will still have something left to play for because that could end up being a layup sort of start for David Peterson, depending on the circumstances. It'd be really fun to like, you know, target the Dodgers, you know, for the last series of the season with a pitcher because you're like, Hey, they're, that's a veteran team. They want Freeman's finger to get better, you know, whatever it is, like they'll rest everybody and they'll be in. But what if right now it's a one game difference between the Dodgers and Phillies for best record in the NFL? What if they care about that and they play their starters for two out of the three games and all of a sudden you're like, oops, you know, or even the last game of the series, what if they start them for the first three innings for whatever standing season season reasons. It is one of those things where you kind of like you're tempted to want to target those things, but things can really change still between now and then that, you know, might make it not as great as you thought. Yeah. Well, and that series, that last Dodgers series of the regular season is on the road at Coors. Oh, okay. Well, so you're not going to get mileage out of Cal Quantra lost in Gomber and Ryan Feltner, but you know, you could change, you can change the names of the teams like you could like you could target the Guardians. That might actually be a good one, but you know, but the Guardians are like a young team. So do they really need to rest everybody? I mean, I don't know if they were Ramirez. Maybe Jose Ramirez doesn't start the last season. It's just probably a day here there probably is what they're looking for. We've talked about the downside of the rest, but that is actually reasonably tight. Two, that's two and a half games behind other royals. Yeah. I think the Phillies might be one, you know, maybe they're locked in as the two seed by that time, right? And you're throwing some Washington starters at home against Philly that you wouldn't normally throw. Like DJ Hers is maybe safer if the Phillies playoff positions locked in for that match up, right? They have older guys. Yeah. Shwarver would take a day off. Probably Harper would take a day off. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's a lot of ways of still going to play out, but that's what you're looking for. Anyway, as far as finding some clues that might give you a few extra streaming options in the final weeks of the season, I was going to say, is there anyone else that you've been eyeing up? I was starting to think about Hayden Birdsong for this week, but he's got two at home, but it's Brewers and Padres, two teams that need every possible win right now. So that made me going to dial back on my interest a little bit with Birdsong. Alex Cobb's dealing with a blister and otherwise, I think he's going to start against Tampa. I love revenge games. I think he's always been an underrated guy, so Alex Cobb is a guy I've circled. The Brewers have an interesting schedule where I'm totally into some of their guys in the short term, but then I think I've not in the long term. How does that work out? They've got the Giants this week, so I've picked up Savali and Colin Ray just for these Giants starts and then they've got Arizona, Philly, Arizona, which I don't want any part of for Savali and Ray types. Maybe Myers gets one of those starts for me, and Peralta gets every start for me, but otherwise I don't want the Savali Ray types in those, but then they finish at Pittsburgh versus the Mets and I feel like those are times again where I might want Savali. Savali right now is lined up for at Pittsburgh on September 26th. I like that. So Savali's pickup that has a lot to do with, can you nurse him through that Arizona, Philly Arizona situation without having to start him, then I like him as a person in the schedule. They've also made some changes to him, which I detailed in my story just about how Savali's now throwing a really distinct slider and sweeper and it might be the better collection of breaking balls that he's throwing in a while. Yeah, and just by basic results, it's down to a 388 ERA, 127 whip for the ratios during his time with the Brewers spanning 10 starts. Almost a strikeout per inning still has a little bit of a home run problem. That would be the underlying skills flaw that you're most worried about. So the park factors might be the other thing you're looking at with those Savali matchups, but yeah, pretty tough stretch of schedule for the Brewers. They try to try to finish off the intersection. Yeah, like I don't want to throw Montas in that nine game stretch there. You want to throw Montas against the Arizona Diamondbacks right now? I don't want to throw anybody against the Diamondbacks right now. We finally learned our lesson. Hey, Smith, it's five months hitting grand slams off of Justin Verlander. Yikes. Yeah, we'll get to Verlander a little bit on our Tuesday show. It's been a bumpy stretch for him since he came back off the aisle. But thanks a lot for that question. Farnsworth hopefully helped a few people out as you try to think through some options that weren't previously on your radar. If that's Dan Farnsworth, what up Dan Farnsworth? That's Dan Farnsworth. I don't know if it is. If it is, what's up, dude? It's been a while. It's probably not Kyle Farnsworth. No. No, if it was. Nice hammies. You know, actually he's, I think he's like an MMA fighter now or something, like something that makes a lot of sense when you saw. That tracks. Yeah. That definitely tracks. This episode is supported by Merrill with a dedicated Merrill advisor. You get a personalized plan for your financial goals. And when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to ml.com/bullish to learn more. Merrill, a bank of America company, what would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fennern, Smith Incorporated registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor, member SIPC. Got an interesting message here about Ellie Day La Cruz. And Ellie has home road splits that are a little differently to expect. This came from J. Lee in our discord, did not know that Ellie's hitting way better this year in a way, games at home, away to 75, 350 to 509 for the slash line and a 136 WRC plus 12 homers compared to 11 at home. You would think that great American ballpark would be boosting up that home run total at home a little bit. Right. You'd expect that slash line at homes to 48, 333, 445, he hasn't been bad. But I don't know. Is there anything to this is just a small sample, just a one year blip. Because as J. Lee said to us, like, if Ellie can just reap the benefits of his home park, like just at a normal sort of level, that would bump up his production and make him even more enticing. Like he's, he's doing better in the non-grade American ballpark environments. So any thoughts as to what might be behind that? Yeah, I'm tempted to, I mean, my first reaction is just this is noise. One year splits are the type of thing that you shouldn't put too much stock in, especially when they run counter to what they are expected to be. So like reverse platoon splits with a righty that hits righties better than lefties or something like that, or lefty that hits lefties better than righties, you know, you shouldn't believe that, especially in one year splits. One thing I wanted to check real quick is his bat speed home in a way, because what if he was, he's swinging harder on the road, because he thinks he has to hit it harder to make it go out, 74 eight at home, which is amazing bat speed, by the way, 75 three away. I was right, it's weird. That's also something that this can be like, like a hitting coach should like, could I realize that and be like, dude, just swing as hard as at home to like, why not hit homers at home? I could be botching the math completely here, but he's a switch hitter, right? Are you looking at all swings from both sides? I'm just wondering if he said more from the side that he swings harder on the road, like if it's worked out that way, because I think his left handed swing is faster than his right handed swing. Remember correctly? I will limit it to lefty, left handed swings, left handed swings away. Let's see if there's still an effect here, left handed swings away, 76 one. Maybe this will help your argument. And the left handed swings at home. Oh, do it. 76 one. Is he exact same? Yeah. Damn it. Okay. No, no, no, but that that helps us, right? He no, that helps us. He has seen more of the wrong hand on the road, or I don't, right? That's what's happened. That would be random. I think it's the way the schedule happens. That's the way the schedule happens. I think if he's swinging the same, I thought maybe there'd be some sort of like mental effect where he's like, he's in New York. He's like, God, I got to swing real hard to hit it out of here, you know? You never know, but my thought was switch hitter, always got to double check some stuff with switch hitters because things are different. If he's swinging the bat just as fast on the way at home and away, and we found that it looked like he was swinging the bat faster away, that means that the platoon situation is different on the road that is at home. Thanks a lot for that message, J. Lee. We had one here about pitch tipping and then kind of looking back at the Astros trash can scandal, which we're not going to like rehash the whole thing. This came from Ryan on our Discord. And Ryan writes, when the Astros trash can scandal came out, there was data push suggesting that the banging of the trash can didn't help. Are these ideas consistent between pitch tipping and, you know, the idea of what the Astros were doing? Is there a difference between the external recognition, like the banging and hitter picking it up with animal brain instinctive recognition, right? Like this, I kind of wonder, like, when we look at this, like the samples from the Astros stuff were also small samples, relatively speaking, right? So it was hard to know what effect there was, but I think most reasonable people would agree that if you had an indication of pitch type ahead of time, that's generally going to help you in the long run. So I don't think that even when that that study came out, I think there were a couple players that were worse with the bangs or something that was that was the narrative that was going around. It's like, well, think about it in the long game perspective, though, like what would really happen if you continually had that information? I think pitch tipping sort of tells us that having that information, no matter how you receive it probably is extremely valuable. Maybe it's easier to react to it with animal brain, just the instinctive recognition of the cue of a glove being tipped a certain way or seeing something before it happens. Because a lot of that processing when it pitches being thrown or even pre-pitched processing is just reacting. It's not as easy to break that down. Hitters will just often say, "Oh, I just do it." They can't really explain what's happening, they've seen the pattern, they've seen it so many times they just handle it, and I don't think there's inconsistency in these things. I think they're just different cues. Well, I just also dispute the characterization that it didn't help them much. Right. It was based on certain splits. It was like splits on pitch types that were outlined by the banging. Yeah, but we found some real differences when it comes to process stuff. I think what happens is knowing what pitches coming can help your process, but then there's so much noise in what happens after that that maybe the splits don't show that they were amazing and with whatever situations. You know what I'm saying? If you look at the process, though, you see, and this is backed up, Jim Albert did some work where he was looking at the piece that Jason Stark and I did, and he found a lot of the same things. I'm quoting Jim Alpert's number so that you don't think that I'm just quoting my own numbers and this hasn't been verified out there. Jim Alpert says that the swing rate just in general dropped from 47 to 45% and 43% during the time they were cheating. The swing rate goes down and then he shows, you know, we talked about low breaking balls because if you know that a breaking ball is coming, right, because from the trash can banging and then you see it's low, then you're just going to less likely swing at it because you're expecting breaking ball and you can think, oh, that's a little bit low, low breaking ball, I'm out, you know, and what we find is the swing rate on low breaking balls went from 39% to 33.7% from 16 to 17 and it stayed that way during the sort of trash can banging phase. We also find that their contact rate went up, you know, and the contact rate on swung pitches went up in particular from 79.6 to 82.5 and it stayed there during their cheating phase. So yes, there if you kind of look at some splits and you kind of try to, you know, look at the bangs and did they hit a homerun or whatever, then you can say, I'm not sure that this was super helpful for them, but if you look at the process, is it better to not swing at low breaking balls as much? Yes. Is it better to make more contact when you do swing? Yes. So like in terms of process, when they knew things were coming, they improved their process and that's why they did it. That's another piece of the puzzles, like why do you think every baseball player is searching for tips? Why do you think they're at the front, at the top, you know, talking about it? Why do you think they spend so much time looking at scouting reports and trying to decide what's coming because there is value and anticipation? We talked a little bit on this show too about having different swings. So if you have an A, B and C swing, I was just talking to Brent Rooker about this and I was like, how are you so good on, on, on sinkers this year? And he's like, I don't know, but you know, there's, there is a role of anticipation where, you know, people really wanted to throw me sinkers inside early in the season. I anticipated that and I was able to put wood on it and go to the opposite field with my sort of scoopy swing. I said, if you swing your sinker swing and you get a forcing, that's not good, right? He's like, nope. And he's like, that's why everybody in the league is throwing three fastballs now. So, you know, anticipation, especially as value goes up, I think the value of anticipation and guessing correctly goes up because you have to start your swing so early to vet to honor the 99 or whatever that you, you're, you have to say in your head, okay, this is, I think it's going to be slider. I'm going to swing. Oh, it's not slider, check swing, whatever it is, you know, yeah, I mean, even just thinking about your example with the low breaking balls, like just spitting on those pitches changes count leverage, then you get something much more hitable later in the count too. So it has a massive impact. Right. So if we focus on each pitch split, you may not capture that, oh, we just put them in a better count situation to do something better later. So yeah, I think generally it helped and, and it's just hard sometimes to, we also, it's really hard, you know, sometimes to prove when things start and when they end. This is one that with steroids, it's like, you know, like, we can't really do a study on the effect of steroids on players because we don't know when they started. We don't always stop. Even they get popped. They come back. They could still be on it. Like we don't know. I've just always wondered, you know, like, if you get some gains from steroids and kind of just break through a new plateau and training and then you get busted for the roids, but you've made yourself stronger and you just maintain the gains, like you kept the effects, didn't you? Like I've always assumed you've been able to do that. Yeah. And then there's this idea of like sort of using steroids in the off season and then sort of not using it as much during the season and like, right. Yeah. It's always, always been there, always been there. You know, good luck studying that. We need a control group to take steroids over here. You're not going to get the steroids. You will get the steroids. Good luck. Yeah. You know, that sounds like a, this sounds like the Peter Thiel, you heard that he's doing this thing where he's having the biggest for all the people on roids. Like Peter, can you also play some baseball on this team, do some baseball on this? Well, he could probably find some retired players willing to jump in on that. Right. I mean, why not? I guess. Except there might have implications about what you did when you were, I guess if you're not headed to the hall. Right. Yes. It'd be a certain level of player you're going to get. You probably get Jose Conseco to do it almost certainly at this point. Thanks a lot for that question, Ryan. I mean, I don't think that was a question designed to like exonerate the Astros or to just like kick them either. No, it's the question of like how similar is that in those cute, those cues are different for sure. Like I think I would absolutely acknowledge that there might be some people that find the external cue distracting like that could, it could be a thing that doesn't work perfectly for everybody. Yeah. I actually think that is possible. Yeah. It's also because if you think about it, like you're at, you're batting. How often do are you using your ears to think, anticipate the pitch? So now you're asking someone, you're asking someone, you're asking something different of your head than you've ever done, where you're like, oh, listen for the bang and then decide to swing, you know, so like it may have, may have helped them some and also hurt them some because now all of a sudden they're, they're thinking about their ears instead of their eyes. Yeah. I think that's very reasonable, very possible that it happened like that for a few, at least a few of those guys, but we'll never know for sure. It's one of those questions. I mean, a gym, someday, someday, so we got a quick, where the money went on our way out the door. This was Trevor's story week. It's nice to see Trevor's story back on the field at the end of this season. I almost look at this as just the yet again, an opportunity for him to show that he's healthy to go into an off season feeling normal and then to possibly be a hundred percent going into 2025 and it's hard to imagine a three year stretch with a new club that could go worse from just a health perspective. We knew there were some issues with stories arm back when he signed that deal, but like all of the worst case scenarios have unfolded and it's been a long time since we've seen him at that 2020 level of 20 home or 20 steel level, which came in 2021 is final season with the Rockies. And now I'm just wondering like how much have the skills deteriorated during all the time in his past while he's been rehabbing back from all these significant injuries? Yeah. I mean, we'll get some, you know, slight little hints of it in terms of, you know, what, you know, right now he's hit a ball one or two six, like that's not, that's not helpful. But yeah, if he can't hit a ball 110 again before the end of the season, that'll give us a little sense of, okay, the bat speed's back. We can now look at bat speed. We can't look at bat speed last year yet, but at least we can look at maybe the bat speed increases over the last couple of weeks, you know, so we can see, see that come online. We'll get some, hopefully get some full on sprints out of him, see some sprint speed because we want to know how much he might steal next year, you know. And then last, I think, you know, to some degree you want to know what his swing strike rate is, it won't be in a huge sample, but it'll give you some sense of what his strike out rate, big rate will be because he's had times when he's been lower, may lower and way higher, you know, what, what do you want to project him at a 26% strike out rate for next year or 28, like his career or the sort of 30 plus he's been sporting in Boston. So those are the things I'm looking at. And I am still considering him as, you know, I have a $4 auto new share where maybe some people think I'm crazy, but I might keep him because I think he would go for, you know, $6 in the in the auction next year and having a second shortstop. When my first one, I think is Jeremy Peña, like, yeah, like this story is the guy that maybe like does it and is a lot better or pain is my guy who does it all year. And I cut story for free agency money, you know what I mean, like in these certain situations, I could see buying shares of story next year, I could see him coming back. And I think defensively, it looks like it's still there. So I think he might be the shortstop for the next year. And if not, like there's still an opening at second. Yeah, they can find a spot for him and given the contract, I mean, they will so long as he's healthy, I started to look at story going back to last season now as a speed first sort of play. I think he's still going to be relatively inexpensive because of all the mist times. So look at it much more as like an MI than a clear like starting shortstop from a fantasy perspective. So more in the 15 to 20 range at the position and a little bit more of a like a long shot sleeper type, you know, yeah, like a guy that you're still going to draft another shortstop or middle infielder behind because if it doesn't work out, you don't want to be chasing on the waiver wire. But I think, you know, enough skills that there, there's still a reason to take that chance. I think you're right on that threshold and auto new a four bucks right now and having him bump up to be like, do I want the roster spot and the flexibility or do I want to just see what happens at a very fair price for Trevor story. Any big ads for you? I mean, the market was like Reed Detmer's Johnny DeLuca, Kate Povich, who we talked about earlier. I think we talked about Darvish and Schmidt before the weekend. We didn't talk about Rhett Louder earlier as part of that September streamer group. He's looked good in his first couple of big league starts. His fastball shape is not ideal. I think he's someone where the sinker might be better than the foreseem and he's been trying to do the foreseem and I think it's okay, but I don't know if I see an ace. Yeah. It's been good results with shaky process stats and decent number of walks, not a lot of swinging strikes in the very early going, but it's only ten innings. So this is more of the early audition for 2025. I think there's a lot to like about Rhett Louder, even though that fastball is not ideal right now, I think you have to sort of take a small leap of faith that they'll get the right adjustments in place going the next season. I think the cost will be relatively low as well, given how little we'll see of him this here and with the home park. I think it's enough of a deterrent until you flash above average skills where you can generally find pitchers like this in a hitter friendly ballpark in the bargain bin. Yeah. Wait, who are you talking about? Louder. I don't think Louder's going to do enough to kind of ridiculous ADP. That rotation is not in good shape in terms of knowing when who's going to start where. So it's a little bit hard to even play the schedule game with him where you're like, "Oh, yeah." Because I wouldn't rather start him at home because it's just a tough part, you know. But I don't know exactly when he's going to be home because they're playing with our rotation like nobody's business. I was looking at Johnny DeLuca, trying to tell the story of what's happening, a little bit of more pull, little bit more pull fly balls and just generally playing better recently. And there's still this weird thing where if you look at his walk rate, his strikeout rate, and his power, it's the batting average of balls in play that doesn't fit for DeLuca. And if he could just get that to 300 and he's projected to poorly there too, and I don't know why, but nobody, he hasn't done great babbips in the minors either, DeLuca. So there's something about what he does, maybe he's too many pop-ups or something. But if he ever had a 300 babbit, he could have a 240 batting average and like 15, 30 home runs and steals over the course of a season, you know. So I've picked up some DeLuca shares, I'm dropping Ramon L'Oriano, I knew it was going to start happening, Kalnik is a lefty, L'Oriano has already started to seed, starts to Kalnik again after a nice hot start there. And I picked up Seth Brown, he walked off two games, you know, you get on my radar, the schedules are right, they go away from home and then Joe Del got hurt. So you know, I had to find something. And then you Darvish, I got a new Darvish for 11 bucks out of a thousand in the TGFBI, the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational. I don't like every start he's got left on the radar, but I love at Seattle. I might start in verse Houston depending on how he does in that Seattle game, then verse Chicago White Sox and then, you know, I don't need to start him on the 28th against Arizona and I'm back. So, you know, do Darvish looking like, get three out of his last four starts. And I think just compared to that September streamer segment we had earlier, I mean, more faith that Darvish will put the pieces back together quickly than some of those young guys will make the adjustments. That was like getting the rust off start the last one, I think, you know. I think so. I mean, it was only two and two thirds. It was against the Tigers. It was a nice spot, 63 pitches. So you can imagine maybe 75 or 80 this time out and then he's kind of back into that normal range for those last couple of turns. So yeah, it totally makes sense. 11 bucks. That's the classic September price, right? No one has money left. You know, and he's dropped out. Everyone's just trying to patch up holes. That's what it was for me this week. I didn't have any real big gets. I just had to replace Jeff McNeil in a league and McNeil the Dell. I picked up Dennis Santana for Dovall's pitch movements and extension and stuff. He hasn't changed him. He's not. I think it's Ryan Walker for the rest of the season. So is it Ryan Walker next season? Yeah. I think there might be some reporting that needs to be done between now and then in terms of what how Dovall shows up next year. Yeah. You know, so it's just it's hard to take the job away from Ryan Walker based on how well he's pitched all year. Yes, but there's also a little bit of a V-Lope jump. So I kind of want to know what's he what's he sitting next year, you know, bear a question. Any other big wins from the weekend? No, I had to drop Fauci, I had to drop Jeffrey Spring. So I got Andre Palante for the double tap this week and Savali for that San Francisco game. And I had to go back to the Alex Verdugo well because of McNeil. Verdugo actually projects decently this week, but I feel like at any moment they could pull the plug and be like, no, we're calling up Jason because that's what everybody in New York wants and I don't know why they're not doing it. Maybe it is the projection. I was even thinking about this with my son. We were talking about it. Like, I think you want, I think that what they're thinking is we need to, we need to win the division. We need to make the playoffs and the projectable guy, the guy with the better projections right now is Verdugo. Right? Like that's the guy who's got the better projections and he even works in some ways behind judge because he makes a lot of contact. So judge them can get, they're on judge and so are on and Verdugo can theoretically make a lot of contact and put the ball and play and score that way, right? It's not really working that way. And I would say that the best case scenario is Jason Dominguez is killing it. So there's a balance between wanting to win the division and what you would do best in the postseason. I think that's happening because you, if you want to win the division, you kind of stick with the boring known entity. But if you want to go further this postseason, I say you take Jason now, put him in for the next two weeks and see what you got. See if you want Jason Dominguez starting for you in the postseason. And now you're not learning anything about Jason Dominguez. I would have made the move already. I think I've made my feelings about Alex Verdugo very clear. The projections aren't even clearly better anymore. They're very close. Are they? Well, yeah, just look at how well Dominguez is playing right now and then tell me with a straight face that you don't think he can do the same things Alex Verdugo's been doing all season long. Well, one thing he can't do is make contact though. So anyway, projections range from 99 to 101 WRC plus, ATC has 106 for Dominguez. That's kind of crazy. But 99 to 101 generally. And Jason, who is striking out more, but not actually that much in AAA this year, is projected from 93 to 101. But it's an on/off switch. Half the projection system is 93, the other half 101. So you're right. I think closer. Just make the switch already for the sake of everyone, not just for Yankees fans. Do it for all of us. We all want to see Dominguez out there instead. You could probably still play Verdugo, like, you know, just Dominguez, like, guess more of the starts. Yeah. Give them three out of four. Yeah. When they're facing righties. That'd be fine. Anything's better than just keeping on down the same path with Alex Verdugo. We're gonna go on our way out the door, a reminder, you get a subscription to the athletic. It's $2 a month for the first year at the athletic.com/rates-in-barrels-fine. You know on Twitter at you know, Sarah's find me at Derek and Riper find a pod at rates and barrels. And again, you can join the discord with the link in the show description that's gonna do it for this episode of rates and barrels. We're back with you on Tuesday. Thanks for listening. [Music] (upbeat music)
