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Go to Shopify.com/theathletic to upgrade your selling today. Shopify.com/theathletic. Welcome to Raids and Barrels. It's Tuesday, September 3rd. Derek and Riper, you know, Sarah's here with you on this episode. We dig into some recent news. You should know the Padres are getting healthy. We might get Kyle Tucker back soon. Pirates finally made that change in the closer role. We wondered about that a couple of weeks ago with David Bednar. Got a lot of great questions from our discord. So big mailbag segment today, taking a look at a wide range of questions. Plus, we'll take a look at where the money went over the long weekend and a few moves that we made for our own rosters as well. Welcome to September baseball. I don't know, man. There's two races as I see it. And a wild card, the third one. And Yanks owes for the division. Let's think about this from the broader perspective. The Tigers have moved ahead of the Mariners and Fangrass playoff odds, even though we're still talking about two teams below 10%. That's still pretty fun. The Tigers are playing well. I actually do think of all the divisions. The one that has the most juice other than the ones I mentioned is the American League Central. The Twins and Guardians have a fair amount of games left with each other, and they're close enough where that series could change things a lot. Yeah, and the Royals are still close enough, too, to win that division, depending on how things play out as well. And you've got celebrities showing up at Mets games. I saw John Mayer and Steph Curry. Gary Cohen saw that Steph Curry was there. He just points it out because that's what he does. Steph Curry is here. Keith and Ron are both like, "Whoa, nice." So Curry just goes, "The Mets must be playing well." I think it was Keith's ghost. Exactly. So apparently Steph Curry doesn't show up when the Mets are playing poorly. Yeah, no, that would be true. The fun thing there is that the numbers actually want to poo-poo me the poo-pooer. Yeah, the numbers say 76% braves. It's surprising, right? I mean, especially given the injuries they're dealing with, I don't know how effectively playoff odds fold all of that information in. I mean, they do try to look at the depth chart, so it's not like they're looking at the Acuna-led braves. Right. It's still a pretty good depth chart even with the Riley, Albie's, Acuna injuries, Strider and Gone as well. I'm from the human perspective. Look at that going on. It feels closer to a coin flip, even though I think I still believe a little more in the Braves than the Mets. It's a half game. I mean, it's 76% it's a half game. What the fangiraffes odds say is that the current Braves team, they true talent 580 win percentage team and that the Mets are basically a 500 team. Right. The Mets are built in the mold of the Rays and Brewers. That's the way I was looking at it. They got the David Stern's vibes. Let's slap it together and it'll exceed projections, so I'm not surprised the projections do not like the current build of the Mets. I think they will like future Mets teams a lot more than this one, but it's the solve of the weekend. Big series in the Dodgers and Diamondbacks, Dodgers maybe opening up a little more of a lead in the NLS, but the Padres are getting healthy at just the right time. So that could keep things pretty interesting in that mix as well. So I'm not as down on the playoff races as you are, but we'll get more into those next Tuesday in our next episode with Brit. But as the Padres get healthy, like you've got to tease back now, you got you Darvish coming back Wednesday against the Tigers and Joe Musgrove who came back from the IL on August 12th is pitching a lot better as well. So this is a Padres team that's getting three very important players back over the past month, even if it's not enough to chase down the Dodgers and win the West, looking at how this roster would stack up in the playoffs, it looks a lot better with those two starting pitchers anti-tease all back on it. And I think the question was really, could they weather the storm over the absences of those three players? And the answer's been a resounding yes so far. So a lot of ways we can unpack this. I mean, to tease being back is just good news through and through. It's good that they're all back. But I think Musgro pitching well again is the thing that we were probably the least sure about because in the previous instances that he was healthy this year, he didn't look like himself. Healthy is a relative term. He looked like he was 60% or 70%. The results have been so much better. A 130 ERA, 27 to 6 strikeout to walk ratio. No homers allowed in his last 27 and 2/3 that covers the span since he returned on the 12th of August. Do you think Joe Musgrove is most of the way back or possibly all the way back to the form he showed us before the injuries popped up around this time last year? One thing that my projections and the selfless numbers were always saying was that even in this reduced form, he is still an excellent spinner of the baseball. And since he came back, the 94 mile an hour velocity on the fastball is better than what he was doing early in the season. So I'm going to go with a, I was going to waffle. I am the king of waffles. But I'm going to go with unqualified. Yes, he's back. And the thing that is not even being caught by every system, including stuff plus right now, is that he's got a new pitch. And he's throwing an 87 mile hour gyro slider that I think right now is being caught by the cutter classification, which would make an actual difference to stuff plus because that means it's calling his 87 mile an hour slider a fastball. And so Musgrove said that he broke it out. I had heard about a little bit a couple weeks ago, like when he just came back, that was one of the things he was working on while he was gone. And he's become really comfortable with it. And that would give him, according to Zavant, to baseball, Zavant, seven pitches right now that he's throwing. And with a 94 mile an hour fastball, he's, you know, on the better side of the average on the fastball. And, you know, the results are there too. So I've got nothing to point at that says that I don't believe. And the good news is you ran a stuff plus comparison looking at the last 30 days compared to what was happening at the beginning of the season. People might be surprised that even when it wasn't going well for Musgrove earlier in the year to start of the year, he had a one 16 stuff plus number, which I think was leading a lot of us to say, let's ride this out. Let's keep starting him. Let's only avoid the toughest of all match ups. Let's trade for him. Let's try to make any move we can to get Musgrove on our rosters wherever possible. Now he's up at a one 27. So he's among the biggest risers. I think he's ninth among the qualified risers that you put on this leaderboard. So it does look real from a lot of facets, but it's such a huge lift for fantasy managers down the stretch who need quality innings. And for the Padres who really need a difference maker, Michael King's been phenomenal in the time that both Musgrove and Darvish had been down. But to get that sort of quality back at the top of the rotation goes a long way. Yeah. And this stuff plus losers razors is an interesting list. We've got the Spencer Arageti cutter conundrum. But he has just a single handle. He also raised this stuff plus while he's giving interviews saying to fan graphs, he's given an interview saying that, you know, he's not here to optimizes stuff plus. It's a that's an interesting parallel to what's going on. But DL Hall, you've mentioned that the Vilo has looked a lot better since since the DL stand. I asked it. Yeah, tonight, even though his name's DL, it's still an I'll stand. I think, you know, what you look when you look up and down this list, you see a lot of players, most of them, the K minus BB has gotten better while their stuff plus has gotten better. I think that's what you'd expect given what the model is saying. The few people where it's gone down, Sunny Gray has increased his stuff plus but decreased his K minus BB. And I wonder if he doesn't fall in love with his sweeper sometimes. I watched his last start. I've seen him in the playoffs with this. I think he falls in love with that sweeper because it has such good results. And there's this concept of decay that's going to come up again in this in this podcast of, you know, even a good pitch used over and over again will suffer some decay when hitters start sitting on it, basically, something we've talked about with the Red Sox and so on. John Gray has upped his as well. I don't know right away why. But one thing I did notice about John Gray is his schedule is pretty good. And I don't know why his K minus BB has gone down. If I'm looking here just at this season and his usage, he's always been kind of a 50/50 guy. Fastball slider. And I don't really see a much change there. But his schedule is really great. So I think, you know, John Gray, you see the stuff plus going up, you see the schedule, you see his bilo going up. I think all these things get together and you and you like him on this list. Joe Musgroves on here. Nestor Cortez is just perennially underrated. I think Luis Severino, I dropped him at the wrong time, I guess. I thought I saw Boston coming up on that schedule and I didn't want to pitch him against it. It's funny because, you know, analysis will say things like, well, you continue to his dominance of the Boston Red Sox. And you're like, which Boston Red Sox? What team are you talking about? You know, he's had like a fairly long career at this point. There's a lot of different Boston Red Sox he's faced, you know. But yeah, apparently he has some mojo against them because I did not want that start and he pitched well. I think the funny thing about Severino, maybe it's two things. One, he was my most rostered player in 2024. And I have so many teams that are trying to creep into the money that like league average, tick above league average. Like, well, that kind of defines like, like, that's, that's Luis Severino, like my season is Luis Severino right now. And I look at the K rate and I'm like, that should be better. I look at my teams and I'm like, I should be better. I should have done better. So we're just like leaving like leading parallel lives right now. And maybe peeking at the right time because I've got a few teams that are inching up here over the last 30 days or so, not just because of Severino, but because of some other factors as well. I just keep looking at him saying, where is this? Where did the Ks go? Why are the Ks gone? And the swinging strike rate has been down going back to last season. I don't think the Ks are going to jump back up into that high 20s low 30 range ever again. I just don't think he's going to turn that sort of corner. I think if it were going to happen, it would have started to happen by now. He's furiously dialing all the buttons. You know what I mean? It's like, it's not like you're like, Oh, well, you know, he's a two pitch guy. Well, he's no longer. I don't know if you've noticed, but he's no longer a two pitch guy. I mean, he is legit throwing the sinker. He's throwing a cutter this year. He's even down down the change up, which might lead to fewer whiffs. You know, you're like, Oh, he's throwing so many fastballs. He throws 35% forcing fastballs. Maybe if you add the two seemer, he's, you know, he's at 60 is percent. So maybe he does throw too many fastballs right now. But, you know, he's sown the past. He can throw a ton of sliders. Why? Why? If he's having results like this, maybe he's not tempted to throw the slider more. But yeah, his Sierra the last two years has been over 4.4 or 4.5. Um, and the, the strikeout rate is just a 20%. It's, it's, it doesn't seem to be going anywhere. I wonder if there's like a version of him that throws the sinker like he does now, but also throws the slider 30% of the time. Um, and doesn't have an explosion in walk rate or homers. And, you know, maybe he was just maybe he's hanging sliders when he, you know, had the bad home run rate last year. I don't know. He's supposed to be tipping pitches and he supposedly picks that out of two. Yeah. Right. I think if you get more Ks in the future from Severino, though, it's like a 24 to 25% ceiling based on where he's at right now. Yeah. All the way back. No, which is weird. Cause stuff plus says he's doing, he's doing fine. Right. And being able to add those pitches gives you that, that little bit of confidence that something could change, but it just seems like this is post peak for sure. It's just how far away from the peak is it going to be for Lobie Severino? I did see some news that Kyle Tucker might return this week. And this is probably one of the more like underrated injuries of the season just in terms of how much the Astros downplayed it and just how much time it is cost Kyle Tucker. Kyle Tucker hasn't played since June 3rd. It's a big deal for a guy that was an early first round pick. He was having a great season. I mean, 19 homers, 10 steals in 60 games, 395 OBP career high for him. Like everything is really clicking for Kyle Tucker this year. And we just have a big chunk of missing data, but think about the gap that the Astros have closed and now opened up on the AL West without one of their best position players. I think that makes what they've accomplished all the more impressive. Yeah, definitely. It speaks to the quality of their team, you know, depth and what they've done there. And to be honest, I think there's some really strong parallels here between what happened with Kyle Tucker and what happened with Fernando Tetis Jr. I think that not only the injury itself, but the way they were playing, what the team did without them, how much the team would take another step forward. I think Kyle Tucker and Fernando Tetis Jr. are the difference between teams that will make the playoffs and teams that will, you know, make more noise in the playoffs. You know, they're going to extend, not extend the whole lineup, but extend the middle lineup, send the lineup, part of the lineup that you're scared of. And they're both coming off of shin injuries that, you know, similar sort of stress reaction injuries. And I think that the, I think the line between a stress reaction and a stress fracture is just really, really tiny. It's really, really hard. And I think that you can even be looking at the same, you know, like when my son broke his wrist, you know, there was a second fracture that, you know, they didn't see until the third doctor looked at it, you know. And it didn't matter in the end, because it was his kid just put a, you know, just put a thing on there. And you know, he's going to grow it to go through it. But, you know, for them, I think, you know, you're, you're looking at these x-rays, you're looking at these MRIs and you're trying to, you're circling areas and you're saying this is an area of concern. And they're also asking the player, do you have pain? The player says, yes. And so you just have to wait it out. But it makes it really hard for us as, you know, fans and fancy players is just sort of, when do you drop a guy that good? And I've nursed Fernando Tatisa long now for, wow, two plus months. It's been a while, yeah. And probably maybe the move was to have dropped in. I mean, probably not. He's, he played a little more recently than Tucker. June 21st was the last time he played before his return on Monday. So yeah, these types of injuries, imaging is a limiting factor. Sometimes you just can't always see healing can be different. I think blood supply to certain the bone areas can be a problem. That can also just lead to slow recoveries. And then it becomes like a question of, is it pain tolerance or is it a risk of making something worse by playing out? I think that could be another sort of moving target with some of these types of injuries. But it seems like they're starting to be diagnosed more often. Like maybe these were injuries that have always existed, but they're better at catching them or understanding them, even though they have these sort of vague timetables around them for the limitations that we just mentioned. Yeah, because you know, this sort of in the, put some dirt on it, you know, and get out there kind of era, you might have just said, well, it might, I don't know why, but my, my legs a little sore and like my, my shins a little sore or whatever. And then just keep playing onto the break. Right. It's not ideal. You lose the whole season. I guess so, right? You'd miss, you'd miss much more time. You broke a big bone. Yeah, break the break of tibia or something. You're going to miss probably a whole year. So a half season might not be bad. If Tucker's healthy down the stretch into the playoffs, I think there's a good chance he retains his position as a first rounder in 2025. And might return. This is funny because there was a lot of like, you know, hubbub on Padres Twitter over the weekend. And I was like, I don't even know where I'm seeing this. I'm just, I just, you know, I go on the show, Bennett Woods in San Diego. And I, and, and I think Woods tweeted something like, I've activated a friend at a t's on my fantasy team. And I was like, what? And then I started looking around and there was a bunch of people like, Oh, is he coming back today? Is he coming back tomorrow? And then I couldn't find like a piece of news where I'm like, Oh, yeah. And like everywhere I looked at, you know, roto, I look at the different news things and nothing about Tati's and then he's there. He's activated. So Kyle Tucker might return this week. Sounds to me like he will almost like if they're, if the, if the whole thing with Tati's holds, you know, how do you skip a rehab assignment when you've been out that long? It hasn't been great for who was it that came straight? Oh, Julio Rodriguez. You know, the first week back was not great. So they're just saying, Hey, we'll take you at your worst. And it might as well do it up here and see the good, see the good stuff, you know, see the good poop coming out of the pitcher's hands and not rehab against guys that can't hit spots and top out at night too. Well, yeah, and that's the things I wonder if the, the continuing diminishing pool of minor league pitching also makes it more difficult for hitters to go down there and do rehab that matters. And if that's the case, then yeah, you have to do it at the big league level. You do it with the trajectory machines and different things you have at your disposal and say, this is good enough or this is as good or better than what I'd get if I went down to El Paso and the good news is I don't have to go to El Paso and spend that time going back and forth. So, and both teams are in an interesting position where like, you know, I think, you know, Tati said is worse going to be better than Azucar. How's Azucar? Yes, you know, is who are we guys that was worst going to be better than whoever, you know, they sent down when he came up? Yes, you know, and in the case of the Astros and Padres in particular, maybe even the Mariners, it's like, you know, what have we got to lose, really? You know, we need these guys, you know, what if he, if he's, if he's better a day earlier up here, it could mean everything. And if we're just, if we just say, you know, you're better than Canzone, so like, put him in there. It's true. With big wireless providers, what you see is never what you get. Somewhere between the store and your first month's bill, the price you thought you were paying magically skyrockets. With mid mobile, you'll never have to worry about gotchias ever again. 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Go to ml.com/bullish to learn more. Merrill, a bank of America company, what would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fennern, Smith Incorporated registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor, member SIPC. If you need to hire, you need Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors according to Indeed data and a matching engine that helps you find quality candidates fast. Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening, and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. And Indeed doesn't just help you hire faster. 93% of employers agree Indeed delivers the highest quality matches compared to other job sites according to a recent Indeed survey. When I was looking to make a hire, I wish I had used Indeed. It would have made the matching process a lot easier. Leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day, Indeed's matching engine is constantly learning from your preferences so the more you use Indeed, the better it gets. Join more than 3.5 million businesses worldwide that use Indeed to hire great talent fast. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com/hire. Go to indeed.com/hire right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com/hire, terms and conditions apply. Need to hire? You need Indeed. One more news item to get to real quick. David Bednar has officially lost his hold on the pirate's closer role. This looked like something that was possible a couple of weeks ago when we spoke about him. I think my point, this just happened with Camilo Duval when my keeper leagues, you know, if Bednar becomes available in my keeper leagues in the next week or so, I'm going to add him inexpensively with the hope of holding him and then being able to keep him in March as the closer in 2025. I haven't haven't soured enough on Bednar to look at him and say he's not the best option going into next season because I think Chapman's there on a one year deal anyway. So there's no guarantee that their preferred fallback option is still there. And when we discussed them a few weeks ago, there was still enough good in the profile to see the foundational skills being there in 2025 and possibly beyond. Yeah, I mean, his main competition long term, I don't think is Dennis Santana even though he got the save. I think it's Kyle Nicholas who throws 98 and has some some good stuff numbers as well. But if you think that Bednar's current, you know, problems with command are bad. Kyle Nicholas is the guy for you. And so what I'm seeing is just a temporary blip. And what Bednar has told me in the past is that, you know, sometimes his mechanics will get off and, you know, he's working on different cues to get them back in. He seems very engaged and coachable. And I don't know, stuff plus still there. So I'm going to bet on him. Kyle Nicholas has sported 12, 13, 14% walk rates up and down his career. And Bednar has never had that problem. So I'm saying Bednar is going to be back in there. I've traded a tip for him in the middle of the stretch in a rebuilding squad to have him for next year. And I think right now he's still atop the depth chart for me for next year. Now, anything can happen over the last few weeks. I just don't, Dennis Santana does not seem like just think about a, you know, Dennis Santana's history and Bednar's history, you know, with this team, you know, in terms of that, Dennis Santana was claimed this year and had one save in his career before this. And then, you know, just think about in terms of velocity and stuff, plus and then strike out rates. And you'll see that Bednar has been better for longer. And even this year for Bednar is a small sample size. Yeah, I mean, averaging 97.3 on the fastball is David Bednar. So we're not seeing the deterioration from a velocity perspective and that bodes well for his chances of being that guy, long term. Oh, good news, by the way, a Garrett Cole's early exit on Monday due to cramping in his calf. So it doesn't seem like anything that's going to cost him significant time. So if you saw that and we're worried about it, to this point, doesn't look like it's going to be a problem for Cole beyond that early exit. Let's get to some other questions we received on Discord. This one came from its gym. Hey, you can pronounce that one pretty easily. I can. I got that one. I am cherry picking the easier to pronounce discord handles for questions, no, I'm really not. And it was do nods, I believe was the pronunciation that was clarified in the Discord as well. Old story from Rob Arthur and Greg Matthews from the old 538 sports section back in the day. I was looking at the the hot hand for pitchers and finding some evidence that yeah, there actually could be, you know, as in their words, an ace and a bum lurking inside of every pitcher. Really interesting piece. I'll put a link to it in the show description. You want to go back and read it. So kind of looking at that study and then looking at, you know, rolling ex Woba and wondering its gym wants to know is there's something we can watch for much like the sliding window in stock trading technical analysis to find the next picture that's about to be hot beyond just their fastball velocity. Yeah, I mean, I think we just we covered this a little bit. I do find I thought that was a fascinating piece. The only piece that I have that the only thing that I have against it is that I'm not sure it's hot hand because, you know, if you are throwing a better fastball, aren't you a better pitcher? That's semantics. But anyway, if you throw that stuff plus leaderboard back up that raises the risers, you know, I threw K-minus BB on there. And I think you're you're pretty unimpeachable if you're including an increase in K-minus BB with an increase in last 30 stuff plus. And I think you're capturing some of that fastball velocity stuff, but you're also capturing pitch mix changes. And you're capturing changes to the way the mix is is mixed up. But also, you know, different things like Joe Musgrove's new slider, you know, and and Gavin Stone's new vertical movement on his fastball and things that matter as well. So while I think Rob Arthur definitely found something what we found when we looked at last 400 pitches stuff plus was slightly more predictive than full season stuff plus. And so that's that still the fastball velocity thing. But it also includes things like shape and pitch mix that I think are meaningful. Sean Manaya has mostly changed his arm slot. He has dropped his arm slot to become more like Chris Sale over the last two or three starts. And it has done wonders for his results, his K-minus BB, and even stuff plus, which says, you know, you're basically a similar picture, but we'd like this arm slot better. Has captured something there. So this is definitely my secret sauce. You could probably find a way to automate something like this. I'm asking my modeler for you've seen some of the stuff interaction sheets that we put up like last week, we had, you know, for Bubba Chandler and people like that. That that shiny that I use, I'm asking for time splits and enrolling stuff plus, because I think it would be useful sometimes where I could show you, you know, hey, here's a change in their mix here, the change in their shape, you know, put against their rolling K-minus BB or something like that. I think that's the right mindset to have trying to find. And there's so many things here that factor into performance that it's hard to know like what falls into the bucket of pure skills and things that a pitcher can control, what kind of falls into environment, which they somewhat can control, but not always. And I think even in the Rob Arthur, Greg Matthews piece here, it was looking it's thinking about stuff like how will the pitcher sleep, you know, if your home for two or three starts in a row, maybe you sleep better at home. And it's not even just the dimensions of your home park, but you feel better because you are sleeping in the comfort of blood that you picked out yourself, not in a hotel bed that's probably still pretty good, but not the one that's made for you. As a pitcher, how sweaty is your part? You know, how are your fingers sweaty? Are you trying to get them the you're trying to get this liquid off of them? Or are you in a dry park where you just keep licking your fingers? Do you prefer one or the other? You know, and so we've gone into how do you feel on the mound? And, you know, what does it look like around you and maybe even salt content in the air? Yeah, I don't want to have to lick my fingers. Like, I would be uncomfortable in a licking my fingers park. But you've seen that pitchers are fine with it? Yeah, they're fine with it. I'm not. That's why I'm not a pitcher among many other reasons, but I mean, the amount of fidgeting pitchers do is sort of amazing. Ryan Nelson has a very distinct fidget. It's it's off putting for me. I want you. It's so much. There was a funny one back in the day was Russ Ortiz could not go maybe three seconds without adjusting his cup. I mean, maybe four seconds. My wife used to have a counter. She would be watching a game. She like one, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Yeah, the level of discomfort some people have out there. Like, I don't know if I could even match that. Like, I could be uncomfortable and shift around, but this is manifesting. They're manifesting the inner discomfort of expert expert, you know, outwardly, I think. Yeah, there's a lot lot going on in some of those instances, but there's some stuff that goes into this that answers other questions we were asked. Sierra six in the discord asked what the hell happened to Taj Bradley? And it's a great question because Taj kind of looked like everything was falling into place until August five starts 1041 year a 201 whip 37 hits allowed, including six homers and just 18 Ks against 10 walks. Now, I think the first the first question with Taj Bradley would always be, is it the same stuff that was going wrong for him previously? Or is this a set of problems for Taj 2.0 that, you know, it's good. He's not he has not fallen back to old Taj Bradley habits and problems, but he has maybe evolved into a new set of problems that he can now work through. I still fundamentally believe in him because of the fastball. There is something to the slowness at which the adjustments are made. That makes me a little nervous. You know what I mean? That's like, it's like a hitter who's like super streaky to begin his career and you're like, only figure something out. And he's hot for a while. And then he gets figured out and he's cold for a long time, you know, it's you're watching that with Bradley. And what you can see when you look at the most recent stuff is like, Oh, he's he's working his curveball back in. Why is he working his curveball in? Probably because of this. So we got a sheet here. So on the left is his splitter vertical movement. What you can see is down is good, right? So like, the more more vertical drop he has, the better. And then if you put it up against this slugging percentage against his splitter, which is the other one, you'll see that when his splitter has the least amount of drop, he has the most slugging. And right now his splitter has the least amount of drop he's had during this season and the most slugging. So there's an aspect to his splitter that is getting worse. And I, and I just talked to him about a splitter, what his cues were and stuff. And he says, I don't know, I don't throw at my bullpen. I just throw up when I'm out there. It's just feel. So he's lost some feel on that pitch is also the concept decay where he's throwing that that splitter more than ever. And people are seeing it more. And now they're sitting on it. And then lastly, recently, in the last three starts, he started breaking out the curveball more because the splitter, as you pointed out, the splitter and the cutter, the exact same Vilo, which means he's like 91 on the splitter and cutter, you know, 97 on the fastball. It's all 90s. I think theoretically, a well placed curveball. And what we learned from Sabre seminars that a well placed curveball would not get swings because they, everyone's going to be sitting 91 to 97 on him, at least that velocity band. So what's, what I would love to equate to him is some curveball command. Just get that thing in the zone. No one's going to swing at it. When you throw something 79, after you've been throwing 91, 97, everyone's going to see that it's 79. And most of the time, they're not going to be ready for it. So just throw it in the zone, get some called strikes, you get ahead with the call strikes, you throw the better sleep, sleep, sweeper, I mean, this better splitter, the better cutter, you can do things that you couldn't do before. You can get them backwards where they think the splitter is coming and throw the fastball. So I think he's going to come out of this, you know, good. And I think I'm going to, I'm going to buy him again next year. I'm happy that I think it'll be a little bit cheaper next year. What do you think? That's probably going to depend on what happens in his remaining starts. Because if the last chapter of his season is mostly what he did in August with a slight improvement, like a, let's say he pitches like a five year, the rest of the year, the excitement won't be there, right? If he has another month like he was having before August, I could see maybe a slightly increased price, you know, pick 150 instead of the post pick 200 range, not a massive leap. But right in that gooey part of the picture rankings, the glob, as I think we've called it for years, Paul Spores called it that. But it gets you, you know, you're making decisions there. Like, you know, if he's at 200, you're like, Todd Bradley, or people I don't really like, whereas if he's at a 150, you're like, oh, Todd Bradley, or these other kind of kind of sleepery kind of guys that are like, you know, Right. You might move into the Nick Pavetta neighborhood. Right. That's kind of funny because for a long time, it's been like, we've got great stuff. Nick Pavetta is going to turn the corner and it's been more disappointment than joy, even though there've been stretches where it looks really good. So maybe that's what we're headed. The one nice thing versus Nick Pavetta and Nick Pavetta is a great pull, I think. Stuff's always been there. Fastball's always been great trying to put together the stuff around it, not great command, not maybe the best sort of intangibles in terms of like putting mixed together. The big difference is Bradley's got to step up in that part. Yeah. Pavetta landing and Philly and Boston just met that any mistake he made was going to be augmented. Yeah, that's definitely fair. Now, here's the thing with Todd's that I would wonder about. I'd wonder this about anybody with a similar V-Lo distribution. If 90% of what you throw is between that 91 and 97 range, the curveball, if it can only steal strikes, occasional called strikes, is still a limited use pitch. You can only throw it what? 15, maybe 20% of the time at most, if that's the function. I know he's got the other three pitches, but I think he needs a fifth pitch, like in order to really make everything click. I always wanted him to have an actual slider. Yeah, put something in there like 84, 85, like then you got two different off speeds that really like do a lot to the hitter. And you could play the 84, 85 off the 78 and 79. So then, oh, they think the curve is coming, but it's actually the other thing. Yeah, that would be the off season wish. Like if that's something that's working for Todd's between now and end of 2025 draft season, then I'm excited even if the price ends up being in that pick 150 range. But tough calls down the stretch though is like, what do you, what do you do when you're looking at Taj on your, on your rosters? Like, do I play him right now? Do I just sit on because the last five starts have been awful? It has to at least change the thresholds for the matchups that you're comfortably using him in when someone's pitching this poorly. Like there's no, there's no way you could feel as good about him right now as you did six weeks ago. But this week, the matchup was a home against the twins. I don't think if I could help it, I would have thrown him this week. If I had no real like viable options, okay, then he's my last pitcher. And even next week, it's going to be another tough one at that. I don't want to throw him there. And they're on maybe a six man rotation. I mean, Fangress has a six man rotation, so he would be verse Boston after that doing like that. That means you got one start left this season, you're liking it at Detroit. And that could be a shallow league cut situation. If you can't use them, you may need to get a two start pitcher or something in there in the meantime. So consider it. I mean, I hate to say that. And I have that keeper league bias. I'm like, you're in a hot job, Bradley. But like, if you're not in the keeper league, don't, yeah. I mean, you're talking about at Detroit, September 25th. Are you going to be even being the playoffs? Maybe your season will be over then. Maybe you're one of those leagues that doesn't even play on the 25th. Yeah. Tough spot to be in right now down the stretch for people relying on Taj Bradley. Got a question here from Jay Lee, what is going on with George Kirby? I tend to think nothing. I know that it hasn't been great recently, but I don't I don't have a smoking gun. You know, he's I don't know. He's he he's fallen out of love with the splitter, for some reason. But the the velos not bad. I don't see anything changing in the vertical movement. He's just a little bit of ride on the foreseen, but he's never been a guy. He's had great shape on the foreseen. I guess his sliders, you know, kind of been a little bit inconsistent in terms of how much drop it has. It's had more drop recently. Maybe that's not good for him. Maybe he wants it to be tighter than that. But I don't know. I think it's, you know, just a it's a little bit he could be a little bit tired. You know, I mean, he did throw 190 innings last year. He should be fine, but I don't I don't I don't see anything. Do you see anything? I don't see anything that's a smoking gun on him. I couldn't find anything yet. This week he's at Oakland. So for I think the debate and discord was like, is he an automatic start still? I think in that matchup, even though the A's in the second half have been a lot better. I'd still throw him there. Even if you want to lower expectations, say he's more of an SP three SP four at the moment, that's still in more than out as far as your your match. I mean, I think I'm trying I'm starting him against Padres because it's home at the two step in weekly leagues. It's it's Padres Rangers next week at home. You know, I think at home, I'm not I don't have a problem and then at Texas, Texas hasn't been scary this year. So I'm starting him and then verse open at the end, I'm I'm starting him and every start going for it. Yeah, it's weird to see George Kirby getting knocked around a bit though, especially in a stretch of schedule. I looked at his last six starts to 623 ERA, 168 with 24 Ks and 30 and 30 innings, but it's this combination of matches at Boston. Okay, sure. The top nine years two tigers, one at the Pirates, home against the Giants and rode against the Angels like that. That should have been a that should have been the opposite. That should have been maybe his best five or six starts stretch of the season, just based on the quality of opponents. Yeah, I guess Oh, I guess one thing that's what's going on when the when the slider has more depth that has less below. So I do think he's better with an 88 mile hour slider. And most recently, it's been 86 87. But it's one mile an hour on the velocities of slider, like changing everything. It shouldn't. You know, stuff plus is still pretty good. So I I think he's fine. I think just sometimes this this sort of stuff happens. I think, you know, you also get into a scouting report where you're like, Oh, you know, the advanced scouter. So like he loves a splitter now, you know, and then the splitter gets hit, you know, whatever is there's just a cat and mouse that happens over the season. Some for some reason, I'm just not worried about this one. Maybe because George Kirby is George Kirby, just trust that he'll solve the problem. Yeah, you know, no matter what is actually causing it. This episode is supported by Merrill with a dedicated Merrill advisor, you get a personalized plan for your financial goals. And when plans change, Merrill's with you every step of the way. Go to ml.com slash bullish to learn more. Merrill, a bank of America company. What would you like the power to do? Investing involves risk. Merrill Lynch, Pierce Fener and Smith Incorporated registered broker dealer, registered investment advisor, member SIPC. As you've probably heard by now, we've teamed up with BetMGM this season. We'll be using BetMGM lines to make all of our picks and we'll have special offers for our listeners each week. If you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code the athletic and you'll get a one year subscription to the athletic plus up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager with BetMGM. Here's how it works. Download the BetMGM app and sign up using bonus code the athletic. Make your first deposit of at least $10. Place your first bet on any game and claim your voucher for a one-year subscription to the athletic. See BetMGM.com for terms. U.S. promotional offers not available in D.C., Mississippi, New York, Nevada, Ontario, or Puerto Rico gambling problem. Call 1-800-Gambler available in the U.S. Call 8778-HOPE-NY or text HOPE-NY 467-369 in New York. Call 1-800-NEC-STEP in Arizona. 1-800-327-5050 in Massachusetts. 1-800-BETS OFF in Iowa. 1-800-270-7117 for confidential help in Michigan. 1-800-9810023 in Puerto Rico. First bet offer for new customers only in partnership with Kansas Crossing Casino and Hotel. Don't forget, if you haven't signed up for BetMGM yet, use bonus code the athletic and you'll get a one-year subscription to the athletic plus up to a $1,500 first bet offer on your first wager. Thursday night football is back touchdown and it's a prime video. It all kicks off this Thursday with the Buffalo Bills taking all the Miami Dolphins and an AFCE showdown. Coverage begins at 7PM Eastern with football's best party, TNF tonight presented by Verizon. Not a prime member? Sign up for a 30-day free trial today. It's the Bills and the Dolphins. Thursday at 7PM Eastern, only on prime videos. Restrictions applause. See amazon.com/amazon prime for details. Let's get to this one from Steel City 25. Jackson Merrill is a top blank player heading into 2025. Where do you think he'll go? I know in the Rob D. Pietro meatball draft that we talked about with Ryan Bloomfield a couple of Fridays ago. Merrill was an early 4th round pick, 49th overall. I think is where he actually went. I think you buy it at a player rate or for fan graphs. He's been a top 25 hitter so far this season. So even if you factor in 8-10 pitchers, maybe a couple extras. I think that 49th overall is going to end up being a relative bargain based on what Merrill's done so far this year because it's easy to look at how he's done it and say, "Well, he's probably not a finished product." I think the easiest thing to look at is to say pitch recognition should get better. There could be a little less chase for Jackson Merrill in the future and that alone could make him maybe a higher floor batting average play that he's been in year one because I think most people figured Jackson Merrill would maybe hold his own, be a league average 100, 105 WRC plus type player this year if everything was working. That would have been a great outcome for his age given how little time he had in the upper levels of the minors. He only played 46 games at AA last season. Instead, it's been even better than that. A 21 home or 16 steel season so far, a little more in-game power than expected right away at that 11% barrel rate. This all looks really good across the board and I know some people are always skeptical when we have someone take a massive leap up into the top 50. This profile is actually safer than a lot of other guys that make that sort of leap. I'm probably more in on Merrill than out even at the new early round price. I think if you told me he's going to go at the 2-3 turn where Gunnar Henderson was going closer to pick 30 throughout draft season, I don't think I'm necessarily shying away from him right there at least off the cuff. Yeah, I thought I would just ahead of him went Michael Harris to spots ahead of him. Yeah, that right. Harris went 47th, Merrill at 49th. Oh yeah, four goes that way. Yeah, so yeah, Harris went too ahead of him. I should put wood on here. So the guys that went around Merrill or just before Merrill or Michael Harris, James Wood and Jackson Cheerio, right? So that's about in the 10-15 picks ahead of Jackson Merrill. Those are the four outfielders that went and they're all super exciting and I thought I would just pull up their dashboard and compare them to each other. This is kind of crazy, but Jackson Merrill, Jackson Cheerio and James Wood all have the exact same max CV. They're all the same now. Yeah, 111.6, so weird. James Wood launch angle and I never use launch angle because it's not predictive, but it does say something about ground ball rate, basically. You know, James Wood, 1.7 degree launch angle, Jackson Cheerio, 7.7, Jackson Merrill, 14.6. So Jackson Merrill has the best barrel rate. They all have pretty good hard hit rates. James Woods is higher, but I do think this is a little bit anecdotal, but I do think that hard hit rates are a little bit higher for guys who don't hit it at the time of the air. And I think there's actually a sort of a valid reasoning for that, which is just that some of those air hits are miss hits. You know, I think that the the launch angle of your hardest hit ball is probably somewhere zero to 10 degrees, you know. So James Wood who lives in at two degrees at launch angle has a 51% hard hit rate, whereas Jackson Merrill who lives at 14.16 is a 44% hard hit rate. Long story short, I'm taking Merrill out of all this group, you know. If you go back over to the dashboard where, you know, you have strikeout rates, James Wood has the biggest strikeout rate. Michael Harris has the second biggest strikeout rate. So by strikeout rate, you want to be comparing Merrill and Churio, but by batted ball stats, though, they're very similar. Merrill has done a better job lifting the ball, although Churio has changed that a little bit over time. If I, if I was looking for a 30, 30 guy, I'd be looking at Merrill and Churio next year. And so I know Merrill went last. I'm reversing this order completely. I'm taking Merrill first out of this group, Churio second, Harris third, and James Wood fourth. What are you doing with those four? You're taking Churio first, probably. I don't think it's a landslide. He could maybe have more power than Merrill long-term, I mean, because he hasn't quite, he's not hitting the same barrel rates yet. And what if he gets to those? Yeah, it's one of those things where I, I believe more in the raw power than you do with Churio. Like, I think it's going to show up a little sooner. Well, it showed up right after I questioned it. Right. Keep questioning it. It's going great. I also think the, the other key difference, though, is like, Churio is kind of pushing closer to that 30, 30 range right away. Like, that's something that I, I don't know if we necessarily thought that was going to be there. So it's, it's almost going to come down to like average and projecting batting averages, miserably difficult looking at the projections. Well, at least Churio and Merrill strike out less. Right. And that's why I'm definitely taking over Harrison wood. Like the bad X has him at two 69, Churio is at two 69, and I think Merrill's at two 72. Park's a little bit of a factor. I think it's a little harder to hit it, Petco. So maybe that's a slight ding on Merrill. He's doing it already. So it's like, well, what more do you want? He's already got it. They're going to go right next to each other in a lot of drafts. I'm probably taking Churio over Merrill, but as Todd Zola says, I wouldn't hate to live off the difference between those two players. I think Michael Harris is the guy that doesn't necessarily belong in the group at the moment. I don't think it's a massive question like long-term. Like maybe he could still get there. I know it's been a tough season for him because of injuries, but I mean, he has the best max EV of the group, but he's always had that. And, you know, he hasn't always lifted the ball. And he, he's a little bit, I just, I put him with, with wood, you know, some questions about, you know, how much contact he's going to make, some questions about approach, you know, some questions about ground ball, right? A lot of really great things to build on. But do you, do you take them, you know, when you're taking Harrison Wood, where you are, you're taking them over Peter Lanzo, you're taking them over Matt Olson, you're taking them over Fran Bevaldez, you're taking them over jazz chism, Aussie alleys, you know, you're taking them over proven competitors. And so you're saying, I think this is a lock, basically, they're, they're almost in lockdown. Top five rounds I want, I want to feel like it's a lock. Yeah, I think, so the reason I would be less enthusiastic about Michael Harris, just to kind of finish the thought on him is he's still showing as much chase as when he entered the league. And that's a little bit of a concern because it's not quite the elite, elite K a percentage, even though he doesn't strike out too much. So that's, that's the part with Michael Harris that I'm like, yeah, this, this holds him back from the group. Wood, I think is, he's definitely, for me, it's when I like more than Harris for next season. Long term, I think he belongs in the conversation with Merrill and Churio. I think the question will be, how much swing and miss will dissipate over time? How much of the strikeout rate we see from James Wood right now is the result of having a large strike zone being six, seven? And can we trust anything about the ABS 18.2% triple A number? Does that tell us anything really good? It has this nice swing strike rate of 20, 10%. It's not chasing 23.7 0 swing is phenomenal. I'd almost tell him to be more aggressive and get to balls before he takes a called strike three, you know what I mean? That's, if I look at this line, I'd be like, I could, I could have a few, like a little bit fewer walks if it came with more slug. Yeah. I think the other part of the James Wood rookie year and even triple A numbers that I'm wondering about is that ground ball rate being higher than ever. But we had the same questions about Ellie. I think there's a ton more natural bad to ball than Ellie. Yeah. I think there's somewhat similar athleticism, right? Less average risk. I don't know if there's going to be anything close to the stolen base numbers that Ellie provides, even though I know that you got a 60 grade from fan graphs on the speed for James Wood right now, future 50. So, you know, slow down maybe as he gets a little bigger. But that's another part of his game. It's like, okay, it's 11 for 18 as a rookie. You can still improve getting better reads. That could be another area where he gets better. He doesn't have the batting average risk necessarily that Ellie brought to the table. You won't cost as much as Ellie did in drafts this year. Although he went third round in this one. Yeah. I don't think James Wood's going to creep up quite as much as the other two. I think both Jackson Merrill and Jackson Churio are going to go earlier in a lot of drafts than they went in the meatball draft. And Churio was like a mid third rounder, so it's not going to be as much of a jump for him. I think they're all going to migrate into that third round. And Churio might even, you know, Churio and Merrill might push the second. Yep. I think that's entirely possible. So I'm not necessarily avoiding anybody from this group. I thought Harris went a little earlier than I expected. But Churio and Merrill are safer with that strikeout rate. It's just a beautiful strikeout rate to have because worst case scenario, they don't hit for the same amount of power. But they still don't strike out and still give you a good batting average with, you know, 18 homers next year. And you're like, I'm fine with that. Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Good question, Steel City. One more to get to here real quick. It was a question from Nils Nelson 007. Do we have stuff ratings from Justin Verlander since his return from the aisle? Do we have any sort of vintage Verlander down the stretch? Or is this just another window where he has to try and figure it out with diminished stuff? Yes. We had actually a chart here for stuff plus losers. So this is the other side of it. And I think just if you take a little quick look at the difference in K-minus BB, we see a lot more negative signs. It's not a lock that if your stuff goes down, your K-minus BB goes down. But it's the flip of the other chart, which is all positive, mostly positive. So on this chart, you've got Chris Sale, who has actually lost his release point is drifting downward. He's lost some ride and some drop on his pitches as his release point has dropped even more sidearm. Possibility he's tired, but the on-field results are still great. So there's not really something actionable there for me other than if you're sort of a DFS daily guy, just something to think about in some of the harder matchups. Jose Soriano's pushing innings limits that he's never been at. Who else we got on here? Justin Verliner down from 124 early to 109. So still has good stuff at 109, but his K-minus BB is down. And so I think he belongs on this list. I think that that does speak to what it's like to be an old gold guy trying to come back. In terms of playing the schedule game, though, he's got a good one versus Oakland at Anaheim, versus Anaheim, versus Seattle. Like, I don't know, man, just to start him. I think even though he's on the bad list, start him. The bad list, it's relative, like kind of like the Musgrove increase, like the starting point for Musgrove wasn't bad. It's great that he's better right now. Well, Verliner had really good stuff at the beginning of the year. He still has above average stuff now. Still have to use a picture that grades out that way. And it's always possible that as he gets a few more starts under his belt, too, he starts to tick back up in the right direction. It's good enough to trust it, even though it's not as good as it was earlier in the year for Verliner. On our way out the door, a couple names for where the money went and some of the moves that we made. Did you get Dylan Cruz? Yeah, I got Dylan Cruz. I used the hammer. I had 290 bucks left in barf, where I'm barf is a funny league. It's the Bay Area Roto Fantasy League that was started by Laura Michaels, the inestimal Laura Michaels. I believe I took his spot when I joined the league, which is a little somber, but cool, because this year I'm winning. I probably will win easily. I'm famous last words, but I'm also in the top 10 for earth. And earth is, I don't have no idea what the acronym means, but it is all of the barf. So barf is the Bay Area 1. There's a Midwest Area 1. I don't even know what the names are. There you go. There's nerf. Yeah. So there's all these different regional ones and mostly riders, but sometimes just people from the area that want to play against riders from the area. And so I'm 9th or 8th or so overall out of 200 plus teams, I think. And I thought power could really move this team forward. And I have 295 bucks and I don't really need this to have the $20. I don't really need a closer. I don't really need anything where I need more than $20. I could probably get along fine with $10 a week from here on out. And so I spent $230 on Dylan Cruz or $216 on Dylan Cruz and $45 on Kamen Zardo. Whoa. Yeah. Okay. 216 was, was I won over a guy that spent 47. I don't know why, because there are other people near the top that had 200. That's why I put the 200 down. You know, there was, I was looking at people's what they had left. And I thought, I saw a couple of people that I thought might go to 200. It's not that I think Dylan Cruz is amazing, is going to like hit the ground running and be most amazing anyway, right away. And he doesn't have a great schedule this week. I think he's at Pittsburgh, at Miami. But one thing I did like was he got up and pulled a couple home runs, hit the ball hard, and he's an oppo guy at heart. So, you know, you know, he's going, he already seems to maybe have found the way to play where he's got two different approaches. He can switch them around depending on what he thinks the pitcher's trying to do to him. That bodes well for me. And I can try to catch lightning in a bottle. When Zardo came up, also hit the ball hard in a small sample. And he had the ball of 112 miles an hour, basically in AAA this year was 42% bed and league average, which he needed to be at 24 years old, but he did what he needed to do. And this team could slot him in. So, I thought it was worth spending the money, even though, you know, if you're talking 10 team leagues or 12 team leagues, I still say just just go for it. These are high value like they're valued highly as prospects. They've done what they need to do basically in the mind of the leagues. The projections aren't going to be great. So if you're standing at projections, say, why did I pick this guy up? But don't worry about that's because they're rookies. So you're just you're trying to get lucky, you know, and that's I thought that was a good use of my remaining money anyway. Yeah, no, I mean, it's at the point now in the year where it's like, if you just need something, make sure you get it. Because if you're sitting on 20% original FAB budget, most of the leagues below that, like just get the guys you need to spend a little extra season with $200 of AAB. Yeah, most things I played in have no sort of like, oh, and you get your money back or you get a bonus. No, there's nothing like that. Be fun if there was, but no, men's art. Oh, I think is a great example though of a guy that now has nothing left to prove a triple A because it's been 177 games going all the way back to last season at that level. So I think the guardians, not only do they need him to be a secondary contributor right now, they're giving him a long look to make sure that he's a part of their plan for 2025 as a regular, not just an extra up and down sort of player. And, like, by all indications, the strike zone judgment is good enough where you can make that work. So a sneaky pickup because roster's expanded and he's made a couple of starts since rejoining the guardians over the weekend. This is weekly line-ups where Prince Otto is a little bit of a weaker pickup because, you know, Cruz is just going to play. Yeah, yeah, Cruz I think has much safer playing time floor at this point. I did make a few changes in TGFBI. I am trying to get back into at least a top three spot for a while. I had the top spot in the league, but I think I'm basically shuffling deck chairs around on that team right now. Jose Taina for the demoted Nolan Gorman. You're out. I'm in fourth, dude, all the way down the fourth or whoa, I'm I'm I'm just kind of oscillating between second, third, and fourth. Right now, I'm in fourth and it's not good. I got to get back on the podium, dude. What'd you do? Jose Taina for Nolan Gorman since Gorman got sent down even though roster's expanded. Jordan Walker's back though. So good for that. Jordan Beck for Herora and Carnacion, Ramon L'Oriano for Miguel Vargas, whose spirit has just been shattered going to the White Sox. He just seems like a happy person nervous because, you know, they he's in a platoon, supposedly with Jared County, but he's playing over Jared County playing a ton. So I just figured let's get the extra playing time and a lineup that's going a little better than the White Sox right now. And then Jeff McNeil for Alex Verdugo since I've I've pushed so hard now for the Yankees to give up on Alex Verdugo, I have to start backing it up myself. I can't try and somehow draw one yep is for common Zardo in TGFBI picked up mid spent. So I thought it was a decent two starter this week. One yep is is falling back into a versus lefty's platoon. Yeah, he was a cut for me in one of my leagues too, where it's like everything looked okay. It's just they're trying other stuff with the lineup in DC. So the yep has run appears to be fading. We are going to go on our way out the door or mind we can get a subscription to athletic for $2 a month at the athletic.com/rates and barrels fine. You know, on Twitter at, you know, Sarah's find me at Derivin Riper find the pod at rates and barrels. That's going to do it for this episode rates and barrels. We're back with you on Thursday at one o'clock Eastern on YouTube. Thanks for listening. [Music] [BLANK_AUDIO]
