What's going on, guys? It's Nick here. Back in the video. We're through week one football, so it's peak over-reaction season right now. I don't think most people have just completely changed their outlook on players, but I can promise you that some people are panicking right now on certain players, so definitely time to take advantage. We're going to go over 10 players, I think it should be trading four or away this video. I've got 14 more on the website, plus I have a model that's going to list a boatload more at each position that over or underperformed in week one. I built a new trade model this off season that not only looks at who's over-performing and underperforming, but also takes into account the strength of the offense, how much competition each player has, like how good they actually are. So you can see all those predictions each week, along with my full detailed report outlining the most valuable players at every single position, and then trending up once we have at least two weeks of data, all the website, thefencefootballvoice.com. If you want access to all of that for free, if you have signed up this season for underdog, you already have access to that. You can check that out. You can check out the rankings as well. If you have not signed up yet for underdog, do that. Use promo code FFA, make a minimum $10 deposit. Following morning, I'll email you login information to the website, or you can just get in season or all in through the website. So a ton of different ways you can gain access, whichever way it works for you, do that one. So who we trading for this week? Running back, we'll start off with not as many running backs for this more wide receivers this week, but Jonathan Taylor, 100% he was the only running back across the league with 100% of the running back touches, 100% of the running back expected fantasy points on offense, but he was 29th and half EPR points per game, even squint in touchdown because he had zero targets. But as will be a theme with pretty much ever on this list, maybe there's a few players who's not a theme for volume. Volume was an issue in the NFL this week, a very unique problem to week one, 43 plays. The culture ran 43 plays. The lowest volume offense in the NFL last season ran 58.5 plays per game. So at absolute worst, the Colts are going to run at least 15 more plays per game this season. They will likely run 20 or more plays per game more than they did in week one each week moving forward. That is at least seven and a half more touches for Jonathan Taylor. Again, 16 touches on 43 total plays. That's absolutely insane. He's going to have a monster workload. It's just the play. So you can extend this to Pittman. We're not going to talk about Pittman this video. I did include Pittman on the trade targets on the website. It was just kind of unique for the Colts because they hit on two monster touchdowns, which basically made those drives. They gained all those yards, but there were just two plays. There were two plays going to, let's be honest, secondary wide receivers. It wasn't Pittman. It wasn't JT. It wasn't even AD Mitchell. Downs wasn't playing. These were secondary players that were just hitting for very long touchdowns. And you know, the Texans did a really good job late in the game of killing the clock and not allowing the Colts to get the ball back. So a unique game for the Colts, not unique on the week because it happened to a lot of teams. But 43 plays, you're going to want to target the studs on the Colts. You can't target Anthony Richardson because even on 43 plays, he still did really, really well. But I would say Pittman and Jonathan Taylor should be two-year looking to go after, but JT over Pittman just because higher on running maximum revival. Duo on the Bears. Jondre Swift and Keenan Allen Bears only ran 53 plays, but Swift had 84% of the running back expected fantasy points on the Bears. And then only five wide receivers had more expected fantasy points than Keenan Allen. So we had a good amount of volume and high quality volume going to these two players. They combined for 9.9 half EPR points, not on average. They combined for that many points. A unique game for the Bears as well. Not only was it the first start for Caleb Williams, looked very, very shaky in that start, but we had defensive touchdowns for the Bears. We had them trailing, but then all of a sudden you have these defensive touchdowns, you have these turnovers, you know, you have Will Levison on the other side just completely falling apart. And the game script just like kind of completely changed to where they should have been a trailing script. We should have seen, you know, more volume. I mean, Keenan already had a ton of volume, but more volume flow, Keenan Allen, more volume throw flow to JT Swift. And it didn't happen, though, because of what kind of happened on defense for the Bears. But Caleb's going to improve, the Bears going to improve, they're not going to score defense touchdowns every week. And then you add on the Roman Dune's a injury. He's currently weak to weak with a knee injury. That's just going to open up so much more for Keenan Allen, because that was the major concern for Keenan Allen. So coming off a bad game, he would be someone that like, he's not going to cost you wire super one value. I value him as a really strong flex play. I've not done like basically after I create this video, I'm going to go in and do the week two rankings. But I can promise you, he's going to rate out pretty darn well, not having the Dunes A. And then with the volume that we saw, you know, in week one, he's going to have not a significant like per play upside. But if he's going to get all of this volume, that's a lot of upside and fantasy, especially for those of you and full PPR leagues. And again, Swift, the total volume wasn't there. But he had a huge share of the running back expected points on the Bears. That's valuable for when they score more fantasy points when the offense is better overall. Crystal Lave dropped a dud and they scored 47 points. So it's just absolutely crazy. You'd think, look at that, Stanley, you're like, Oh my goodness, did you have like a buck, 15, three touchdowns? No, he didn't do absolutely anything. We went into this off season, you know, kind of talking about this offense being like, listen, they were super predictable. They were super uncreative last season. The hope was that bringing in Clint Kubiak would change things. They would run more pre snap motion. What do they do in week one? They lead the league with 88% of their plays, having pre snap motion and they drop 47 points. Are they going to do that every week? Absolutely not. But Crystal Lave is not going to also have two receptions for 11 yards every week. This game was just over so early that the Saints didn't really need to throw the ball, didn't really need to be aggressive at all. Olave led the Saints in routes, but at 22, like he just wasn't needed in any way. They were wrestling their starters in the second half of this game. They just did not need to be aggressive at all. Crystal Lave is a stud. There is no reason to be concerned with him. No team had fewer, wide receiver expected fantasy points than the Saints because again, they got up. They were able to lean run heavy. They utilized their tight ends a ton. I mean, no team had more expected fantasy points. Two tight ends in the Saints like they were just able to run the ball and kind of dinking dump with their tight ends and they just didn't need to throw the ball to wide receivers. Now, they're not going to be a team that utilizes the wide receiver a ton, but that's not needed for Olave to be good. We know they're going to rank towards the bottom of league in that because it's basically just Shaheed and Olave, but Shaheed hits on the long touchdown. They'd run into the touchdowns in and when you win by 37, you don't need to throw the ball very aggressively, their oboe weeks where a lot of them goes off by low on him because again, he was someone we were excited about for this pre-snap motion. I bring it up just because it increases efficiency of the offense, but also Olave was one of the wide receivers that really stood out in that metric. He's great when used in pre-snap motion. It's in hit in week one because they did not need him. Garrett Wilson, last wide receiver. It's not very fun playing at Sam Fran, especially when Sam Fran has time to prepare. Garrett Wilson, command 11 targets and the Jets only ran. 49 plays. Another problem with week one. 49 plays for the Jets. Now, that's a problem with Sam Fran. It's why we hate playing people against them because not only do they have an amazing defense, but their offense. I mean, everyone was watching that game, right? They can just kill the clock. As soon as they get up, they run it, run it, run it, play action, screen pass, and they can have these drives where they take seven, eight, nine minutes off the clock. It's a very unique thing for Sam Fran that a team can be that efficient on offense, can kill the clock that much, and also have a defense that can very easily force you to go three and out after having the offense drive down the field for nine minutes, and that's just going to result in a lot of games where their opponents don't have very many plays, and they have low efficiency on those plays. It was one of the worst spots they'll be in all season. It's a concern, obviously, with us that they didn't look amazing, but they at least had drives where they looked OK. And if you watch Garrett Wilson, you watch Breeze Hall in that game, they still looked very good. I'm not going to say that Rogers looked amazing, but he definitely had a number of throws where you're like, these were some of the best throws we've seen from any New York quarterback over the last five years. So it's like, I know he wasn't amazing, but he still showed us even in that game where it wasn't that good. That was still one of the better games we've seen for quarterback on this team in a very long time, and they're not going to be playing at Sam Fran with time to prepare for Sam Fran in every game this season, right? And this is not going to be this bad of a spot. Again, 11 targets on 33 routes as a 36.7% target rate that is eighth among all wide receivers in week one, it is third behind only Cooper Cup and Tyree Kill among wide receivers to run at least 25 routes. More volume is coming for the offense. I mean, this was one of lower volume games of the season and he commanded 11 targets. Like he's going to be averaging 10, 12, 13 targets every week with spikes from there. He's going to be great this season. You want to buy low on him. Last up are the Titans in general. So it was a brutal week for the tight end position, only three Titans scored double digit fantasy points. Two of them were drafted. I would say outside the top 14 to 15 rounds in drafts likely was the only Titan with at least 60 receiving yards. So don't feel bad if you're tight and then do good every single Titan besides as they likely did not do very good. We also saw in Joku get hurt, Ferguson get hurt. We don't really know the full timetables for both those players, but it's seeming like about a month for each of them. I've said all summer. I want to top seven tight end. That remains true after week one. Trey McBride is my model's number one target. He scored over six fewer fantasy points than expected. He had a 29% target share, but only a 55% catch rate, three yards after the catch. He's going to be much more efficient than that moving forward. He was second by a good chunk behind likely and expected fantasy points. So he had the second most volume and the second best volume among tight ends in week one. Again, I can promise you better numbers are coming when he's not playing at Buffalo. We had a number of great players this week that had really difficult road matchups. That's not going to continue McBride's going to be great this season. Mark Andrews. I mentioned him earlier in the week, but he was double team, triple teams on every single play. That's something Casey has done in every matchup they played against them. He's never had a good game against Casey in his career. They were just basically saying, okay, we're completely taking away Andrews. There's no way you can throw the ball to Andrews. This play were triple teaming him. If you want to dump off to Justice Hill, if you want to dump off to Isaiah likely, sure, we don't think you can beat us doing that. So do your best. And they did that. It was a little bit annoying watching Baltimore because they weren't pushing the ball down field at all. Every single play was either a dump off to likely or Justice Hill or a screen pass to Zeflowers. But again, terrible road matchup. Jesus was a great defense. They played really good at home. And they also are like the team you basically never want to play. You don't want to play wide receivers against the Jets. You don't want to play wide receivers against Kansas City. So they were able, they knew they were going to stop Zeflowers and going to stop the other receivers. And if they're also selling out to stop Andrews, it's just a unique situation where Baltimore finds themselves trailing and the two players they want to use are taken out of the game. That's just not how Baltimore is set up. Baltimore is set up to play from ahead, to run the ball effectively, utilize play action off of that and to utilize Mark Andrews and Zeflowers as their top receivers, Casey is just set up really well to take that away. And so it was a terrible game for Baltimore in general. And to be honest, they still almost won the game, right? They're an inch away from likely scoring that touchdown forcing overtime, but they would have gone for it. And honestly, I think they probably would have converted the two point conversion. So I wouldn't worry too much about Baltimore overall, and especially Andrews, he's not going to average 0.5 yards per route run all season. He's not going to command a 7% target share on his routes. Likely he's not going to continue having a 50% target rate on his routes. That will come crashing down. Now is a good time to capitalize on the low value of Andrews. And then we have Dalton Kincake kind of finishing off this trio of I mean, every time and again, underperform, but the ones that we were kind of focusing on in drafts underperforming, it was just a really strange game for Buffalo. Josh Allen was five for five passing in the first half. It like you had to do like a triple take when you saw that you're like, wait a minute, he's strong. Five pass attempts in the first half. Like, well, what is happening over there ends the game 18 of 23. He only had two games with fewer than that attempts last season. I think it was like 15 and 21. So most games last season, even taking into account in the second half of the year they went more run heavy. They were still throwing the ball more than 23 times per game. And again, it's the volume thing. Like, if we look at the lowest volume offense in the NFL last season, it was the Titans lowest volume passing offense at just over 29 pass attempts per game. Buffalo through the ball 23 times. So that's going up. If we look overall, there were 16 teams in the NFL in week one that threw the ball less than Tennessee did last season. 16 teams. That is absolutely insane. The Bengals, Bears, 49ers, Jets, Chiefs, Lions, Jaguars, Falcons, Seahawks, Patriots, Vikings, commanders, Saints, Bills, Steelers, Jaguars, and Colts. They all threw the ball fewer than 29 times, which would have ranked last among all teams in the NFL last season. So I'm not saying that like, you know, oh, you got a bunch of players on these teams, they're all going off. That's not the case. But we should be expecting a lot more passing volume in future weeks. Two players. I'd be okay selling high on and typically sell high for me isn't like, oh, this person's playing really well. Got to dump them for nothing. Right. If a person's playing well, you can ride it right out to hot streak, or you can sell them if someone is willing to pay an elevator price tag for them. So whenever we talk about these sell highs, they're going to be players who are performing right now. You don't need to just dump them if you have them. I have, we're going to talk about Jane Reed. I have them in two of my three leagues, right? I'm not going out there and sending a million trade offers for Jane Reed, just hoping someone takes them for nothing. But if someone looks at it and is like, oh, I got to get Jane Reed in my team, I got to get Isaiah likely on my team. They are two players I'm perfectly willing to part with because they did significantly overperform your expectation. And week one, I already kind of went over the take for likely, but again, it was the dream outcome for him. Casey sold out to stop Mark Andrews, and Lamar had to throw the ball 41 times. That combination is going to happen what maybe once, maybe two more times all season. And we know from the off season research that I did this season, the best thing you can possibly do at the tenant position is trade high. No matter what, if a player is a breakout, if a player is a bust, the best thing any team did with that player, besides Sam Laporta last season, Youth Laporta, it was kind of neutral is trade them away. If you have a tight end, it starts going off, sell high, you're going to get more value than they're going to return to you over the course of the season. Titan is very volatile. If you can capitalize on elevator price tag, you should do it. And then with Jane Reed, again, I don't want to sound like I don't like him. I have him in my leagues. I want him to play well, but he scored 31.1 half PPR points on six targets and one rush attempt. Like he ranks outside the top 20 wide receivers, expect the fantasy points, he scored 22.7 more fantasy points than the volume he received would suggest he'd have on average. He's a great player on a great offense, but he was still tied with Christian Watson for third and routes on his own team. 84 players currently have a higher target percentage than him, again, not dumping him for nothing. But if someone goes out there and like, hey, I'm going to offer you wide receiver two value or hey, you give me Jane Reed plus another player and I'll give you a Garrett Wilson. I will give you, you know, some of these stud wide receivers that under performed in week one. Yes, I would absolutely be willing to do that at quarterback had to mention it. There's nothing. The model split on a few names. It thinks she's so high on Baker by low on CJ Shroud, but realistically quarterback trades are so difficult to do. And Baker's a streaming option. I don't think anyone out there actually thinks he's going to produce like that every week. It's just the commanders have a terrible defense. So if you can sell high in Baker, do it. If you can buy super low on CJ Shroud, do it for the most part quarterback trades, very difficult to do, unless someone's underperforming for like a month straight. So that is it for this week's trade video. Again, I have a lot more options on the website the fenest football advice.com. And I really recommend checking out the positional reports. I spent a lot of time on those this off season. And especially as we work our way through the season, it's going to be a great resource for understanding who the most valuable players are at each position. And then who the model thinks you should be trading for. And away, if you signed up for underdog using promo code if they end, make a minimum $10 deposit, you have access to that. So if you did that over the summer, you have access to that and you have access to the in season rankings. And if you want to get access, again, go to underdog, sign up with promo code FFA minimum $10 deposit following morning, I'll email you access to the site. So that'll do it for this week. Leave a like if you watched this far. Subscribe if you are new here. And thanks for watching.
