Larry and Sean talk about the state of the Mariners following the 2 game split against the San Diego Padres. What do the Mariners need to do down the stretch to make the playoffs and realistically, how many more games can the Mariners lose?
Collins It Like It Is
57. Mariners Aren't Dead Yet!
(upbeat music) - Welcome back into the Collins It Like It Is podcast. My name is Sean Collins, and we got my dad, Larry Collins on this episode. Stephen is MIA, don't know what he's up to, but it's something intense. Let me tell you, I'm just joking. But now it's just the two of us on this episode. Dad, we've got a two game series. We do a recap after every series. Yeah, two game split with the San Diego Padres. That gives us our playoff odds on fan graphs, 8.6%. Let me start with that, and let me just kind of get your initial thoughts and say, okay, do you think that's too high, too low? What's your initial out the gates thoughts on 8.6% chance of making the playoffs after this series split? - Yeah, that sounds like our odds are not great. And that's exactly what I'm thinking. It's great that we're winning, we're not winning. We're still hovering barely above 500. - Yeah. So yeah, 8% for team that barely takes a dip down to close to 500 and then another game or two up above. So 8%, actually that's a little higher than I actually thought. 'Cause I thought we were down like 6% just a couple of days ago. But it's all right, it's fluctuating. It sounds about right. It's gonna be a, it's gonna be a wish and a prayer is what it's gonna be. - Yeah, I mean, as far as the season goes, this is obviously extremely disappointing, but if we're just- - Definitely. - Yeah, we're just kind of, you know, going off of our last episode and just going off of that. I mean, we're pretty close to controlling our own destiny, which if we're just looking at just what was in the rear view mirror, that's about as good as you could hope for. You know, just being able to control your own destiny. You just wanna get into that Houston series with the chance of just, if you sweep 'em, you're in first place. Like, that's a pretty bleak spot to be. - Still a chance. - But, I mean, at this point in the season, it's extremely disappointing that this is where we're at. But if you're just looking at this in a vacuum, you know, we got closer to that. We gained a game in this series. So Houston lost two against the A's. - Only A's. - Yeah, and we split. So we gained a game. I think the only shot that we have right now is to win the West. I don't know how at this point, you're gonna not only catch the twins, but you gotta pass the twins. I just don't think that that's, I'd put that somewhere in the point one, you know, or I'd say it's less than 1% chance of that happening. Whereas to me, yeah. - Yeah, I honestly think my just kind of initial reaction to 8.6% is it feels a little low. I don't know. - I don't know. - I mean, I'd put it somewhere in the 10, 15% range, you know? I mean, the Astros are, I mean, they haven't been playing well. What are they, four and six over their last 10? - They're giving us chances. - Yeah, they're trying to keep us, keep our hopes alive. - Yeah, you just know, I mean, it's the Mariners. You just know that somehow this thing is gonna end up with a game 162 mattering. - Yeah, it was craziness. - You know, like, oh man, it's just crazy. This is where we're at. But we're here to kind of break down this series. So let's do that. You know, you can't look, you know, like I said, we've done too many episodes on this podcast or just being frustrated. So let's just look and see what actually happened. So let's just start with game one, dad. - Game one, really frustrating from George Kirby. I just don't know what his problem is. I mean, he's- - He's a bad, bad second half. - Oh, it's been brutal. I was looking at his stats over the last seven games. He's got a six, an ERA in the sixes over his last seven games. It's like, come on, Kirby, what are we doing? I, is it, do you think it's just cause he's living too much in the plate? Is he just too middle middle? What do you think his problem is? Do you, have you noticed anything that's been tangible? That's been different with George Kirby? Cause right now, he's not just bad. He's like a borderline liability over his last three games. He's giving up 12 runs. It's like, what? That's not even giving us a shot. And we're talking about George Kirby here. - Right. - I mean, what do you think's been going on with George? - You know, he's still around the zone. The batters they can know he's, he's gonna put it somewhere where it's hitable. So his, his movement could be the issue. He's not, he's still hitting his zones. He's hitting it the high outside. He's hitting inside. So I think he's maybe being too predictable. So they can go up. They can predict a strike's gonna be thrown. Just put the bat on the ball and, you know, they did have two home runs against him also. So his location has to be an issue in the sense that when he misses, they're not missing his, his pitch. So he's not gonna be perfect, but because they know he's gonna be close, they can take a hack and when they're gonna, they've been hitting his misses. - Yep. He has been discouraging. I'm not gonna lie. This, this stretch here of these last, basically since the second half has been really discouraging from George Kirby. Dad, I'm curious. Does this make you feel like George is the guy that you wanna see traded? Or is it just, no, it's just, you know, he's a couple months sample size here, but he's George Kirby. You know, he was a, I don't know if he got Cy Young votes last year, but he was firmly in the conversation this year in the off season. We thought George Kirby had a chance to win a Cy Young. He started out a little bit shaky, actually out in the beginning of the year, but he settled in to everything we want George Kirby to be. And now the wheels have fallen off. - Right. - Do you think that, 'cause you'd get a lot for George Kirby. And honestly, I don't think that there's even a trade you could probably get back that would equal the value of George Kirby. - Right. - But do you think that it makes, or does it, does this stretch of games make you feel like, now George is the guy I wanna see moved, or do you still think that George Kirby could be an ace? You know, the way that we've seen Logan Gilbert pitch, do you think that that's still in, in the cards for George Kirby in the future? - Yeah, I still have confidence in both Kirby and Gilbert. So I'm not gonna trade Kirby or Gilbert. They just have too much upside. They have too many pitches. They're durable. So I think it's just a stretch. He's still a young pitcher. So I still have confidence in Gilbert and Kirby. No, Wu, I'm thinking Wu might be the one we get the most for, because he's the one that is, just lights out every time he goes up to pitch, and he's an injury liability. So he's the one that gets injured, but when he's on the mound, he's one of the top pitchers in baseball. So I wonder if Wu is the one that will give us the highest value. - Yeah, I think it's slim. Honestly, I don't know if there's one pitcher that's more likely or not. I would say the obvious person is Castillo, but he's got his no trade clause. So it's hard to say, I mean, he could shut down any trade. Yeah, I just don't know, especially if he's, I mean, when has he become a free agent? Is it two years in addition to this year? Like, so this year plus two more. - I think so. - It's like, yeah. - Pull it up. - If I'm Luis Castillo, unless I'm going somewhere where they're going to give me a huge extension, I just don't know if it makes any sense for me to agree to a trade out of T-Mobile. I mean, you can get, I mean, your stats just get so ballooned in T-Mobile. It's almost like, it's almost like Yankee Stadium for a lefty hitter. It's like, you know, I want to stay here for this contract, man. You know what I mean? I just don't know if he's going to wave any potential or if he's going to allow any trade. And I don't think trading Gilbert makes any sense. I think he's a legitimate borderline ace. He does what he did this year. Again, next year I'd call him an ace at that point. - Sure. - Brian Wu has been so phenomenal. I mean, talk about an ace. I mean, he's been-- - Oh yeah, that's what I'm saying. Yeah, he's got the highest value, I think, is Wu. And you can kind of fudge a little bit in making that, you know, pull in the trigger on Wu. - Yeah. - Because he does have some injury and some current concerns about longevity. But back to Castile, he actually is under contract through 2028 with 2028 is a vesting option that if he pitches 180 innings, his 2028 contract renews or is automatic. So he might stay and become a free agent in 2029. - Wow. - So yeah, we got him for-- (laughing) - That's a good deal. - Yeah. - From Mariners. - 1, 2, 3, 4. Possibly five more seasons at basically 24 million a year. - That's a good deal for the Mariners. I mean, that would be a huge haul. If you can get a trade going. One guy that to me kind of gets lost in this whole conversation is Brian Miller. Because he, honestly, he's probably better at this stage in his career than both Gilbert and Miller. Or sorry, both Gilbert and-- - Kirby. - Kirby, you know, like he's probably better than both of them. And, you know, we act like Gilbert and Kirby are just, you know, untradable and, you know, potential number one, it's like, what does that make, what does that make Miller, you know? - Yeah. - Yeah, Miller is coming up with new pitches all the time. And so, yeah. I'd probably hang on to Miller, Kirby, and Gilbert. Obviously, I've said it three times now, I'd probably be shopping woo. - Yeah. - Even though I think he, when he's on the mount, he may be the best of the four. - I also called him. - And he's actually pitching. - I called him Brian Miller, I guess. - Yeah, I got that. We all know what he meant. - Yeah, I got woo, yeah, Brian Miller, that's a, - Rice woo? - Yeah, you don't him it. But yeah, it's an interesting conversation for a later podcast about, 'cause at a certain point, like we said in our previous episode, you can't win games negative one to nothing. And we got to get some offense, but I'll tell you what, we had a little bit of offense going in this series. I wouldn't say the offense was the problem. We scored eight runs in two games. We had Victor Robles go three for four in game one. We had Cal Raleigh, didn't he break the record for, or sorry, past Dan Wilson for the most home runs and Mariners history. - I've heard so, yeah. - For a catcher in Mariners history and just now has Mike Sanino to catch. And then he also, I think he's four behind Mike Piazza for the most home runs as a catcher in his first four seasons. That's amazing. I mean, that is absolutely incredible. Basically, Cal Raleigh's just been a metronome. You know, as far as just putting up war home runs, he's basically good for 30 home runs and a four and a half four season every year. It's amazing, he's an amazing player. - Yeah. - We're lucky to have him. - Take him for granted almost. - Yup, so. And then in game two, I thought that game two was one of the most fun games of the year. Just as a pure baseball, not looking at it as a Mariners fan, I just thought that that game was electric. Brian Wu was phenomenal for whether he had 19 up, 19 down, that was amazing. And then you had a Rosa Raina making diving catches out there, you had Rojas making bare handed plays at third base. You had maybe one of the, I'd say probably a top 10 play of the year with Tautiste Jr, Robin that home run. That was an amazing catch. So there's a lot going on in game two that was a lot of fun as just a baseball fan. Yeah, double from Rosa Raina. He's, yeah, he's not been, you know what, what you needed him to be. But maybe it sparked something, I'm not sure. But two for four, Cal Raleigh goes two for four there. That's a great day, great series for Cal Raleigh. JP Crawford finally is able to get an extra base hit. It's that double down the line. It's able to kind of break the game open there. That was great to see. And then you had Troy Taylor, Snyder Munoz. That's the formula right now in the bullpen. That is the formula, which is thoughts on that, Dad, 'cause Troy Taylor has really jumped into a lever drill. That just had a necessity, obviously, but I think that Troy Taylor has been awesome. What have you seen from Troy Taylor? Definitely it's out of necessity. It came about because of the necessity, but he stepped up. Yeah, Taylor, Snyder, those are two unsung heroes for the year. And who would have thought? You know, Ricky coming up in a little, I don't know if I'll say a pennant run, but you know, crunch key games. And he's stepping up and looking sharp and throwing strikes and doing what we need him to do. And Snyder, who would have thought Snyder at the beginning of the year? Not me coming up, going back down to Tacoma and sharpening, you know, his sweeper. That just seems to be just, he can fit it in just about any square in the strike zone, whether it's a high strike or a sweeper out to the outside. So that's just been nails. And I just say, Taylor, Snyder, Munoz, pretty quality right now. Yeah, and then next year, you're going to have Santos and Brash back. So that's actually going to be a pretty dang lethal bullpen. You're going to have Taylor, Snyder, Munoz, Brash, Santos. Just keep him, keep him healthy. Keep four of those five guys healthy and you're in good shape there. So, yeah. You need to figure Taylor is probably going to continue on. Snyder, you don't know if he's a one year hit, wonder, but maybe trade him. He might be a trade high candidate. Maybe. I mean, arms. Yep. You know, it's crazy, but I know, I know Bazarto is, I think Jerry likes him. So, well, somebody's got to like him besides his mom. So, sure, there you go. But anyways, yeah. Yeah, bullpen pieces usually are easy to replace, especially going through our lab. We can develop somebody. Yep. There's one guy I want to talk about, and that's Luke Rayleigh. Oh, yeah. Luke Rayleigh, man. He's kind of in, is he our best hitter? Like, Justin? Might be. Like, is he our best player on the team? Like, I don't know about that one. Okay. Take Cal Roll. No, seriously, take Cal Rollie out of the equation. Who's better than Luke Rayleigh? Well, you mean? I'm not talking about the ceiling. Yeah, I'm not talking about their ceiling. I'm not talking about if everything goes right. I'm just saying, who is the best player on the team, besides Cal Rollie? I don't know. I still got to go Julio. He's, or as bad as he's played, he still has some numbers. Yeah, yeah. He's had a horrible year, and he's still our one, our second best. Really? Yeah, if it's not really, it's Rodriguez. Yeah, it's Julio, because he's, I've said it all year of compared Julio to Kevin Kearmeyer. Like, the reasons that Kevin Kearmeyer was an amazing baseball player for his career is the same reason that Julio Rodriguez is great this year. I wouldn't, I mean, I probably wouldn't call him great, but it's the reason he's a quality major leaguer. It's because of his defense. Just don't know. Man, I just imagine if Julio Rodriguez can just, can just be that 800 OPS guy with that defense. I mean, it's probably a seven, eight war player. I mean, just give you, give you the 20, 24 defense with the 20, 22 offense. Oh, Julio, it's a Hall of Famer. Like, he got himself a tie war number. Yep, absolutely. So, yeah, three and a half back. Got a big series with the Rangers. Dad, let's jump over to that. We are going to see a pretty significant debut here tomorrow. Well, it probably today when you're listening to it, but Thursday. We're going to see humor, rocker, a big time pitching prospect for the Rangers. Make his major league debut. That is not what you want to hear if you're the Seattle Mariners. You don't need the Rangers. There's 70 and 76 record getting any juice going. So, humor, rocker, he is going to make his debut. Adrenaline is going to be pumping. That's not what you want to see. And then we got to Grom against Emerson Hancock, because he's going to be filling in for Luis Castillo. Yep. I mean, to Grom is going to be, that's his first start of the year, right? So, we're going to have so, humor, rocker, making his debut. And then we're going to have to Grom making his season debut. This is not what this is bad news for the, this is bad news for Mariners fans. Or they're going to crumble because it's their debut of the year, a debut of the major leagues. Maybe. But it's a loser against Gilbert. That's a prime time, big time match up there. So, as bad as Texas has been this year, as banged up as they've been this year, they're going to come in with some juice and you can't flatline. You've got to, I mean, I shouldn't be saying that, but it's the Mariners this year, but, you know, you've got to come out hungry. You've got to come out energized. You've got to come out ready to sweep this team because you need to sweep the Rangers. That's where we're at with the season. Like you're not going to sweep the, you're not going to sweep the Yankees. That's not realistic. And you can maybe lose three more games, right? So you got to sweep the Rangers. You got to win two or three against the Yankees. And then you got to, you know, I'll put it this way. So you got seven more games against the Rangers. You got to win six of them. I'll say five. Okay. It's going to be hard to sweep, but if we go three and one, I think that would be what the expectation should be. Okay. And, but yeah, it's going to be a tough fight to the end. And if we can win series, that's what we have to focus on. Yeah. I think we're out of the win series boat. I think we're in the, we got to win series and we got to get a sweep here. I'm not sure if four game series is the must sweep series to call. Well, you can't lose any more games. That's the thing. Like you just do the math on this thing. To catch the Astros, you're going to have to sweep the Astros. That's the, that's a given, like you have to sweep. That's the sweep. You have to sweep the Astros. You have, like I said, you, we've got seven more games against the Rangers. I think you got to win six of them because I think you do. I think you can lose three. Okay. Well, then there's your three losses. If you, if we can lose three more games, we're going to lose one against the, the Yankees. Right. So you're saying we can lose two against the Rangers. That means we're sweeping the A's at home told. So we're, we're. No problem. You know, we have to win the last six games of the year is what you're saying. That's very doable. Okay. It's an 8% chance. I'm just trying to map this thing out. I'm just trying to map it out at the end of the day, though. Nothing matters if we don't sweep the Astros. So, and, and the calculus can all get changed on this. If the Astros keep losing, if we, you know, split with the Rangers and the, and the Astros get swept. That's a great series right there. You know, so if, yeah, just, you know, gain, you know, every series, if you're just able to chip away at this thing, that's, that's really what we're looking at. So yeah, as much as you should be watching the Mariners, equally be watching the Astros because it's just as important. So yeah, dad, anything else you want to close with before we get out of here with the Mariners? Nope. You know, it's been a disappointing season, but it's also an exciting season because we see Gilbert and we see potential of Kirby. We see who we see. There's a lot to be excited about with our pitching staff. I see a big difference with Edgar being the hitting coach where we're striking out less, coming through in the clutch. We saw two clutch base hits today against the Padres struck out, I think, 16 times in the series total. So, I mean, we're, we're, we're, I've seen a tangible difference be in the Dan Wilson, video Martinez era versus the, the end of that Scott service era is just frustrating for me. And it makes me kind of just blood boil a little bit because why didn't we do this earlier? And I'm not saying Scott service was the problem, but just like, why didn't we shake things up earlier? Because this, this team, this offense with our pitching, this is good enough. This offense that we're seeing is good enough. And it's frustrating that we didn't shake things up when it actually could have mattered. And before we fell into a hole, that was so steep to climb out of that it would take a miracle. Right. Yeah. We should have never been in this situation. We should have made decisions way before this became, oh, what we're literally talking about. So we can, we got to win six of seven against the Rangers got to sweep the Astros. You got to at least win the, like, it's like, it's like, this is ridiculous. Well, it brings up the question, you know, Eggers, no, he, he came out and said what he thinks is important to look at all these analytics. He says he doesn't look at analytics. He just looks at what average on base percentage and another stat. So he doesn't look at all these analytics. And so if he's taken that mindset to the club right now, the club is probably saying, you know, the pressure's off, we don't have to have all these numbers running through our head. So maybe he's just been a calming influence to just get out there and swing the bat. Yeah. So now is that sustainable long term? I don't know. It's more sustainable than down shifting in your well, that's, yeah, yeah, I would say it. I think there's something too analytics, but I think Eggers, calming influence, these last, you know, six weeks, yep, it's helped. I'd like to see us get a little more gap in between 500 and our final record. Yeah. So, yeah, but yeah, I think there's things that look forward to in the future. It's just been a disappointing season, but we're going to, we're still watching, we're still following, we're still commenting, yep, hope is still there, but it is flickering. Yep. Barely. Yeah. Well, we'll do another episode on Sunday. So we're going to have a, this is obviously a more primary, primarily Mariners episode, but it'll be more split on Sunday's episode where we'll talk about Seahawks game against the Patriots. We are not going to break down the apple cup, but that is, is that happening this weekend is that. Yeah. It's just, it feels so early for the apple cup. Yeah. It's the second, it's week two. Right. Isn't that week two? I don't know. Week three, actually. If you're looking for college football analysis, stay as far away from me as you can, because I have no insight on college football. Yeah. I mean, both teams are playing well. It's the, you know, what is the big 10 versus the big two? Yeah. The pack two. So ridiculous. The pack two. You can still call it the pack 12, but just call it the pack one comma two. Yeah. That's how you do it. Well, on that note, on that note, dad, unless you got anything, anything else, let's, let's call it an episode, give us a like, give us a subscribe, follow us on X, call us like it is, as our tag over there and go Seahawks go and let's go. [music] [music] [music]