The Miami Dolphins have entered into their first game week for the 2024 season. Before things kick off, we take an updated look at the wins prediction, whether or not the Dolphins finally beat the playoff drought, who is this year's MVP and more! Plus, the Dolphins revealed their team captains on Monday and several key players returned to practice.
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It's the lockdown podcast network, your team every day. This episode is brought to you by FX's American sports story, Aaron Hernandez. From executive producer Ryan Murphy comes the first installment of FX's American sports story. The limited series charts the rise and fall of NFL superstar Aaron Hernandez and explores the disparate strands of his identity, his family, his career, his suicide and their legacy in sports and American culture. FX's American sports story, Aaron Hernandez, premier September 17th on FX, stream on Hulu. We're driven by the search for better, but when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. Don't search, match with Indeed. Ditch the busy work, use Indeed for scheduling, screening and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more visibility at indeed.com/lockdontnfl just go to indeed.com/lockdontnfl right now and support our show by saying you heard about indeed on this podcast indeed.com/lockdontnfl terms of conditions apply need to hire you need indeed. And we are off the 2024 regular season is upon us and we are starting the week with our final predictions for the upcoming season here today on Lockdown Dolphins. You are locked on dolphins, your daily Miami Dolphins podcast, part of the locked on podcast network, your team every day. All right, Miami, welcome to another episode of Lockdown Dolphins. It's your team every day here on the Lockdown Network. I'm your host, Kyle Krabs, a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan, host of Lockdown Dolphins co-host of Lockdown NFL scouting author of Touchdown Miami NFL draft lead for the 30/13. You can find all of our shows here on the Lockdown network on YouTube or wherever you listen to your fair podcast, typically cat to our every dayers because it is your team day. We don't just say it's we live it here on the Lockdown Network. Today's episode of Lockdown Dolphins is brought to you by prize picks, the easiest and most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports, go to prize picks.com/lockdontnfl and use code in all lowercase Lockdown NFL to win $50 instantly when you play $5. You don't even need to win to receive your $50 bonus prize picks, run your game. We are going to run our game here on the Monday episode. Now that we're into regular season schedule, usually the Monday show is reacting to the game and then the Tuesday show is all of the notations from the coaches film that you go through and really get into it the Wednesday, you start prepping the table for the next opponent and then Thursday we have crossover Thursday and then Friday you take whatever wind comes your way. It's probably some variation of recipe to win, things that must happen, preview the game. But we obviously didn't have a game this weekend. So we're in regular season form without the game before to get us off and roll. So I wanted to take the opportunity as we flip the calendar to September to look at final predictions that I have for the Dolphins this season, including a record prediction, a playoff prediction, MVP performer, breakout players, disappointments. We'll get into all of that here on today's show. But first, Mike McDaniel just got done talking to the media on Monday. Benito Jones is back at practice. Aeroan Brewer is back at practice, Tyree Kill is bracket practice, Jalen Watto is back at practice. So it's almost like they held these guys out to make sure that they didn't carry any ill adverse effects from bumps and bruises over into the regular season. We're in regular season flow. Boom, these guys are out on the field. Great. And that's not to say somebody might not have a setback with something out on the practice field and that they're guaranteed to play, but the Dolphins did whatever they needed to do to get these guys as close to 100% for the start of the regular season. All your household names sound like we're in the clear. They're going to be ready for the game against Jacksonville. The other thing that happened, the Dolphins dropped their team captains. I wanted to make sure I acknowledged this on today's show before we get into record prediction. To its end of the low, Jalen Ramsey, Tyree Kill, David Long, Alec Ingold, Tron Armstead, Zach Sealer, Kleyis Campbell, is a robust group of captains. That's a total of eight. I would assume that Alec Ingold will qualify as your special teams captain, even though he is an offensive player. But a lot of good representation for the Dolphins. David Long, obviously a player who was a first-year player last year, emerging into a leadership role. Love seeing him in that spot. Zach Sealer having the opportunity without Chris Wilkins to kind of commandeer that room. You knew Kleyis Campbell when you added him. He was probably going to be in that mix. So there's your Dolphins team captains for 2024. Toa, Jalen Ramsey, which is specified, which are the 18 Jaylins. Tyree Kill, David Long, Alec Ingold, Tron Armstead, Zach Sealer, Kleyis Campbell. I'll start. I won't bury the lead. What I'll tell you is this. My win prediction for the season has gone up. One game to be exact. I have the Dolphins at 12 and 5. And how the games themselves shake out is to be determined each and every week. But I think what helped me as I sat down and I looked at this, and teams have made more roster moves throughout the pre-season. And you get a little bit of a better idea of where the Dolphins are as a team. I had some more questions about teams like the Rams. And that's a Monday night game. It's in Los Angeles. Dolphins going across the country after playing in Buffalo the previous week. But it is Monday night, so you get an extra night. They trade Ernest Jones. They've got a lot of youth on that defense. And that was one of those games for me. I looked at that and then I looked at the Houston game. I looked at the Cleveland game. Those were three games where I wasn't quite sure how I felt about those teams. There's high expectations for all of those teams. And I'm enough down on Cleveland with their quarterback situation with DeShawn Watson, who they can't even get him through a consistent stretch of practices to start the season. And that's a week 17 game. And I think about Miami, however long it was ago when Antonio Brown almost ruined the game for us. But if we went up late in the snow and beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh, so for all of the talking points that exist, and I understand why they exist, between those games against the Rams, the Texans, and the Browns, I have enough other questions about those teams that I said, you know what, my win production is going to come up again. I think Miami will perform very well at home. I have them at six and two at home, six and three on the road. And I'm not, I'm not picking them to beat the Bills. They're going to have to prove that they can beat the Bills. And maybe I'm a little superstitious in that point, but maybe that's one of those ones where, hey, maybe the Rams game doesn't break your way, but you beat Buffalo at home in week two. They're perfectly capable of beating Buffalo in week two. You could draw up just about every desirable outcome. Home on a short week on Thursday night to start the season with the Bills having a lot of players changing on the defensive back seven, Matt Milano is out for the year. Their safety room is completely new. They have brand new wide receivers involved in the passing game with Joe Brady. His first offseason impressing an offensive group. So you can look at a lot of different things and say, hey, this draws pretty well for Miami, it does. But you have to win the game. And until they do it, I'm not going to pick them to do it. Just because it's been that steep of a contrast between the two teams and the successes. Unfortunately, I'd like to think this is the year that it's done. But for formal prediction purposes, I'm going to pass until they show it. I think the other hot take that I have is everybody looks at the end of season slate weeks 14. I guess you could technically include 13. But if you're going to do by quarters of the season, weeks 14 through 18. Dolphins have five games home against jets at Houston, home against San Francisco, at Cleveland, at New York Jets. I think my biggest hot take that has developed since the first couple of times we've gone through this schedule and looked at it. I think the dolphins win three of those games. And I'm not sure the week 18 game is going to matter. I think Kansas City has a really good pathway to a one seed. Maybe you're looking at seating between the two seed and the three seed. Are you really going to be in a position where you're playing guys to determine whether or not you're playing at home in the event of an upset in the division around for somebody else? I don't know. I see some questions with other teams in this division. I'd like to think Buffalo can do it. And look, we did the crossover show. And I said to beat a man, you got to beat the man. Buffalo's sitting pretty. And as I've sat here and I've gone through and I've picked all the games, I see enough other games. The difference between Miami and Buffalo, Miami playing a second place schedule and Buffalo playing a first place schedule means that the dolphins play the Raiders, the Bills play the Chiefs, right? The Bills also have to go and suit up against the Detroit lines in Detroit. Miami has to go to Green Bay. I mean, that's a hard draw for sure. The Dolphins get the Browns. The Bills get the Ravens. Buffalo's in Baltimore. So I think that schedule swing ends up turning around. I do think the Dolphins are a part of three AFC East teams that make the playoffs. But I'll tell you now, I'm picking the Dolphins to win 12 games is my final schedule prediction for the season. We'll get into team MVP breakouts, disappointments, playoff outlook. All of that coming your way next here on this episode of Lockdown Dolphins. Make sure that you stick with us. NFL season is right around the corner. If you want to get down to hard rock stadium for a Dolphins game, you got to get your tickets through game time. Game time takes all the guesswork out of buying tickets. You can get sightlines from your seat. You can get all in pricing up front. So there's no surprises when you put the tickets into your cart. And with just a few taps on your phone, you can get tickets delivered directly to your phone. So if you spontaneously want to head down to the rock and watch the Dolphins play the Jaguars on Sunday, you take the guesswork out of buying tickets. Game time download the game time app. Create an account use code locked on FL for $20 off your first purchase terms to apply again. Create an account redeem code locked on NFL for $20 off download game time today. 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Team MVP, I think this is the year that Tua ends up becoming the team's MVP. And there's been a debate about Tyreke versus Tua and Tyreke's impact in the passing game versus Tua Tonga Valoa. I get it, right? I get Tyreke Hill in elite player. But it really feels like there's been a recalibration within Miami, with the other players that they brought in in the sporting cast. Be that Odell Beckham or John O'Smith and the conversations about the 2K chase. And Tua kind of said the quiet part out loud and said, "Hey, we've been trying to get Tyreke 2K the last couple of years." I think they get away from that a little bit. And because of that, I think the value of Tua kind of transcends a little bit this season. As kind of being the catalyst of the offense, coming into year three in the system, I believe Levittard asked him this. It's the first time he's been in the same system for three years, going all the way back to high school. And you can certainly tell the ways in which he has put an emphasis in balancing out his game. There's been corrections, there's been over-corrections all the way to the jujitsu, to put the body armor on. As long as he continues to be judicious with the football, I think you saw a little bit of glimpses of that in the preseason game with how he avoided that hit on the rollout to his right, then I think Tua's going to be in a spot where he strikes the balance this year. Being mobile, creating, but being responsible and not taking hits. If that coincides with a reduction in high, high, high volume for Tyreke, maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Tyreke finishes with 1,850 yards this year, or 2,000 yards, or 2,100, or 1,700 for the third straight season, whatever it may be. And if that's the case, then we can sit here and we can spit in the wind and have the debate about who the MVP is. But I think it's just reading the tea leaves and the trend of the team and the trend of the tone of everybody involved. I think you'll get a little bit away from being so Tyrekeel-centric. I think that'll be a good thing for Jay Lenoado. I think that'll be a good thing for Tua. I think that'll be a good thing for the ancillary pieces as well, because you have guys that can win in different ways in different spots. So I think Tua ends up making the leap and would be considered, if not a consensus, a very strong candidate for this season, not just for dolphins fans, but the general population. I know that was one of the things I caught some flak when we did the crossover show on Thursday. We were talking about MVP candidates and I mentioned if the Jets won 12 games, Aaron Rodgers would be the MVP. And the reason why I said that is because of the perception from the MVP voters. And I don't know if Tua is ever going to win an MVP or not, like the actual league MVP, because it feels like you saw it with Brock Purdy and Tua deals with a lot of the same stuff. A cog within the machine. Brock Purdy led his team to the number one seed, had 12 wins as a starter. Uh, accounted for 30 something total touchdowns with 40 something, 4,000 plus passing yards. And he wasn't even the highest voted MVP candidate on his own team. They give that the Christian McCaffrey. I feel like the sum of that bias exists where the conscious or subconscious for MVP voters because of the discourse around Tua. So when you ask me an AFC, MVP, AFC East playoff candidate, say, Hey, if the Jets do in 12 games, I don't think they do. But if they did, the MVP voters would bend over backwards to give this guy the award again. Has nothing to do with the deserving nature of the player. It has to do with the psyche of the voters that are actually responsible for giving out the award. And I don't believe that they would get over their conscious or subconscious biases that dictate the decision that they make with that award. But I think this year will push that perception in the right direction. It is kind of where I'm, I'm hoping and expected. Over performers, breakouts, I think Aaron Brewer and Mike McDaniel said Brewer is going to practice today. And if he's ready for the start of the season and he plays against Jacksonville, great. I think he's an excellent schematic fit for what the dolphins want to do. As we know, this is not a team that runs downhill at you and says double birds or common. It's starting to stop us. You can't. We're going to uproot you off the point of attack and blast you off the football and run right downhill at you. It's not really what they do, right? They're looking to create stress in as many different ways as possible. And I think Brewer with his athleticism, I've seen enough of him anchoring early in camp against guys who made the roster for the dolphins is defensive interior players. And I think are viable players to control the point of attack. And I, you see the athleticism on tape and when he gets outside and he gets on the second level and all the things that he's capable of, I think that's a player that is, we will not miss Connor Williams by the end of the year is my perception and prediction there. I think Jalen Wright, maybe not for the start of the season. Maybe it is for the start of the season. Two account of teas. Do you think he thinks he sees some big things coming? But I think Jalen Wright at some point this season is going to commandeer a very significant role within the dolphins offense, whether that's where he most circuits banged up or otherwise. And I think just over the moon with what you saw on tape, the understanding of the zone system in addition to what he can do for running physical and getting downhill on guys. As a little different dynamic than what they've had outside of Jeff Wilson, but obviously Jalen has much more explosiveness to his game. So I think Jalen Wright is another breakout player for you. I think Jordan Brooks, kind of same feel as what I have with Aaron Brewer, Jordan Brooks, I think is tailor made for what the dolphins want to be defensively. The ability to pressure, the ability to cover ground, the ability to be walked up on the line of scrimmage and then get out and hit your landmarks and take away throwing windows, the length and the ability to stack blocks and make plays off of blocks. Maybe it takes the first month of the season to really get into the flow of a new scheme. But I have high expectations for how Jordan Brooks acclimates to the system. And I think the dolphins are going to feel really comfortable with him being kind of a cornerstone piece for the next several seasons. Both he and Aaron Brewer signing through your contracts. I think they're outstanding scheme fits. And I think they live up to the commitment that dolphins made to each one of them this season. Players that maybe don't give you the same juice that you hope for. We're not off to a great start with Odell, right? And I do think Odell, the vision on passing downs to be the third threat, I think he can bring some really good value. But when the name and the household brand expectation is Odell Beckham, that comes with a certain expectation of performance. And I don't think he's going to be that. I don't think he has to be that. But this is somebody that got a significant incentive laden contract. And I don't know how many of those incentives he's going to hit. I'm probably I'm tempering my expectations for the incentive portions of Odell maximizing his his production. As far as a defensive player, I don't want to say I'm I'm worried about. But I think you did see some of the cracks in Chop Robinson's game against Tampa Bay. The run defense element for him was why I was a little bit lower on him in the pre draft process. There's no doubt about the physical tools. And the dolphins, I think they're going to have to walk a line with the implementation of him as a player to put him in positions to be successful. And if they get stressed with bodies and they get strained into playing him at a higher volume in non ideal down in distances, as he's developing as a player, I think you may have some more ups and downs than I think the training camp buzz for chop might have suggested. I feel pretty good about him as a long term player and his ability to develop is really exciting. But in year one, if he has to play a lot of early downs and the teams commit to running the ball at him, what does that look like? Because it probably won't align with how hot that name was the first two, three weeks of training camp for chop rods. I'm not saying he's going to flame out. I'm not saying he's, but expectations minus reality equals disappointment, right, is to say. And it felt like maybe chop got so hot early with being a buzzy player. Now, if he plays 500 snaps and 400 more rushing in the passer and moving around and a lot of long down and distance situations. Yeah, I think he, the old probably, and I expect him to have good sack and pressure numbers this year. But the complete profile of the player, it's just, hey, that edge group kind of has some questions that may be lead to him playing spots where he'll be better in year two and year three than he is right now. I hope that makes sense. And I certainly hope nobody takes that out of context. We're going to get into playoff outlook. I've done predictions for all the teams across the league. We'll get into the dolphins playoff draw and what I think happens from there next on this episode of like an adult. Let's make sure you stick with us. If you're interested in getting in on the action this weekend with football back prize picks, the number one daily fantasy sports app with over five million active users, prize picks is the easiest, most exciting way to play daily fantasy sports. Unlike other apps on prize picks, it is just you against the numbers. All you have to do is pick more or less on two to six player stat projections, and you can watch your winnings roll in, prize picks gives you a ton of opportunity to mix and match your stat projections and keep you in the game. Price picks is the only real money daily fantasy platform with insurance policy as well. So if that lineup has to be in play, if one of your guys gets injured, you're protected in those instances. There's nothing worse than you getting something lined up and a guy goes down on the first play of the game. Don't have to worry about it with prize picks. If your player leaves in the first half and does not return, prize picks, your picks are still live. So if you want to get in on the action, download the prize picks app today and use code locked on NFL to get $50 instantly when you play $5, that's code locked on NFL on prize picks to get $50 instantly when you play $5, you don't even need to win to receive your $50 bonus. It is guaranteed prize picks run your game. I love 5-hour energy. After a big win for my favorite team, I love diving into the tape. But after hours of making content, I can need a boost. There's nothing like a watermelon 5-hour energy shot to make sure I finish the job. With zero sugar and a convenient portable size, it's the perfect pick-me-up for getting stuff done. If you go to 5hourenergy.com, that's the number 5 hourenergy.com and get some 5-hour energy product today, you can use my promo code locked on FB to receive 20% off your order. This offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions. The code is not good on subscription orders. Go to 5hourenergy.com today. I had the dolphins as the three seed in the AFC. Again, remember, I've adjusted and came up on my prediction to have the dolphins. I originally had them 11 and 6. I haven't told them 5. I've been surprised to hear how many dolphins fans who say this is the least excited I've been for a dolphins team in quite some time. I don't really have any expectations. Come on. Now, this is a good football team and it's different. There's new names, but this is part of life in the NFL when you have a competitive window. You can't just keep the same nucleus and core of players. The dolphins, unfortunately, had to experience some of that this past year. They lost a couple of players that I really liked. I love Christian Wilkins. I love Rob Hunt. I was a big fan of Connor Williams. This time last year, you told me Connor Williams was holding on and say, "Yeah, let's get the contract lined up and get them locked in." Things don't always work out, but they found alternative players in Kalayas Campbell and I remember who I think are really good fits for what the dolphins want to do otherwise. We did a whole bunch of shows about the offensive line and as much as I would like it to be talent-wise better than what it is. Their philosophy offensively, they have found some core beliefs in and there's some good production to be able to tie that to. I think the silver lining out of all that is you're going to miss Rob Hunt, but Rob Hunt played 400 snaps last year, 450 snaps last year. We'll see when we get Isaiah Wynne back. I could count that chicken, but telling him Connor Williams and Rob Hunt, those guys played 1,100 snaps out of 3,300 last year, 1,200 snaps. They missed 2/3 of it. So what are you really missing? At least versus last year, and that's the unfortunate luck the dolphins have because I think if you had more stability with that group, you probably do win one or two more games. I think it's too off the top of my head. They were in position to win, and they didn't. I could have sorely used that talent, but I think working through that last year forced them to have to problem-solve in the way that they did that. I think they found conviction in, I think we can do it this way instead. We did that show last week in specific lens of third and fourth in shorts. As the three-seat, I have the dolphins drawing the New York Jets in the wildcard round. So potential back-to-back scenario here, and as I kind of teased, I don't think the week 18 game matters. So if you're in those kind of shoes, I don't have the Jets as a win or in candidate based off of tiebreakers, but from seating purposes, yet does get a little muddy between them and Buffalo is the six and the seven, Cincinnati is the five. So the wildcard round, as I have it assembled, is Miami hosting the Jets, Baltimore hosting the bills, and the Texans hosting the Bengals with the Chiefs on a buy. And you could put me down for the playoff drought ending this year. I think the dolphins playing at home, if they play the Jets, I think they beat the Jets at home in the playoffs. I have Buffalo and Cincinnati winning respect the game Cincinnati over Houston Buffalo over Baltimore, which would take you to the division around, and Miami would be hosting the number five seats Cincinnati Bengals at home in the division around with Kansas City hosting Buffalo on the other side. I'm not going to take any further than that. Because at that point, you're just, you know, whatting in the wind, just for the sake of it, but put me down on record 12 wins from Miami playoff wind drought ends is kind of where I sit with this football team as we get into the first week of the regular season. I think the leadership changes. I think year three offensive stability with the key players involved and what that gives you from a problem solving perspective in games. I think the depth of the roster being a little bit better. I think some of the questions about the team late, the teams on the schedule later in the year. I think all that sets up and Miami does what they could have done last year had they taken care of business. And hopefully we don't have to talk about that game anymore late in the year at home. That is going to do it for us here on this episode of lockdown dolphins. I appreciate you guys tracking the show, making a great rest of your day. Keep it locked in right here on lockdown dolphins because it is your team. Every day you can find us on YouTube or wherever you list your favorite podcasts. I'm out of here. Peace. A prime member. You can listen to this lockdown podcast and free on Amazon music. Download the Amazon music app today.
