With many familiar faces in the Miami Dolphins' offensive line room, many fans are wondering what the pathway is to better success in short yardage situations. We'll take a look at 12 personnel and the holes in Miami's personnel packages from 2022 & 2023. Who are the key cogs? What does improvement look like and how can they achieve it?
Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!
Yahoo Finance
For comprehensive financial news and analysis, visit the brand behind every great investor. Yahoofinance.com
eBay Motors
For parts that fit, head to eBay Motors and look for the green check. Stay in the game with eBay Guaranteed Fit at eBayMotors.com. Let’s ride. eBay Guaranteed Fit only available to US customers. Eligible items only. Exclusions apply.
Gametime
Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONNFL for $20 off your first purchase. Terms Apply.
FanDuel
FanDuel, America’s Number One Sportsbook. Right now, NEW customers get ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS with any winning GUARANTEED That’s A HUNDRED AND FIFTY BUCKS – with any winning FIVE DOLLAR BET! Visit FanDuel.com/LOCKEDON to get started.
FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN)
It's the lockdown podcast network, your team every day. I love five-hour energy. After a big win for my favorite team, I love diving into the tape. But after hours of making content, I can need a boost. There's nothing like a watermelon five-hour energy shot to make sure I finish the job. With zero sugar and a convenient portable size, it's the perfect pick-me-up for getting stuff done. Five-hourenergy.com, that's the number five-hourenergy.com and get some five-hour energy product today. You can use my promo code locked on FB to receive 20% off your order. This offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions. The code is not good on subscription orders, go to five-hourenergy.com today. This episode is brought to you by FX's American Sports Story, Aaron Hernandez. From executive producer Ryan Murphy comes the first installment of FX's American Sports Story. The limited series charts the rise and fall of NFL superstar Aaron Hernandez and explores the disparate strands of his identity, his family, his career, his suicide and their legacy in sports and American culture. FX's American Sports Story, Aaron Hernandez, all new Tuesdays on FX. Stream on Hulu. We're driven by the search for better. But when it comes to hiring, the best way to search for a candidate isn't to search at all. The best way to search match with Indeed. Ditch the busy work. Use Indeed for scheduling, screening and messaging so you can connect with candidates faster. And listeners of this show will get a $75 sponsor job credit to get your jobs more visibility at Indeed.com/LockedOn NFL. Just go to Indeed.com/LockedOn NFL right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. Indeed.com/LockedOn NFL, terms of conditions apply, need to hire, you need Indeed. Many Dolphins fans look at the group along the Dolphins offensive line and wonder what the pathway is to better success in short yardage in 2024. I'm on a quest, come with me, and let's explore how it happens here today on LockedOn Dolphins. You are LockedOn Dolphins. Your Daily Miami Dolphins podcast, part of the LockedOn podcast network, your team every day. All right, Miami, welcome to another episode of LockedOn Dolphins. It is your team every day here on the LockedOn Network. I'm your host Kyle Krabs, a lifelong Miami Dolphins fan, host of LockedOn Dolphins, co-host of LockedOn NFL Scouting, author of Touchdown Miami and the NFL draft lead over at the 30-13. You can find all of our shows here on the LockedOn Network on YouTube or wherever you listen to your favorite podcast to be the cap to our every dayers because it is your team every day. We don't just say it. We live it here on the LockedOn Network today's episode of LockedOn Dolphins is brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account and use code LockedOn NFL for $20 off your first purchase, terms to apply, download a game time today. What time is it? It's game time. Game time for us getting into short yardage success in 2024. What does it look like? The Dolphins' successful waiver claim for wide receiver Grant Dubose, the fifth wide receiver on the 53-man roster. Got a chance to go through his preseason cut, go through some of his college tape last night. You're going to love if this guy has the opportunities to be on active game day rosters and play special teams for Miami and be an 11-personnel personality that gets after it in blocks and tries to dig out safeties and linebackers. You are going to love the dirty work this guy puts it. But the downside to acquiring Grant Dubose is the Dolphins had to make a cut and their cut that accommodate him on the 53-man roster was offensive lineman Jack Griskel, who we established yesterday on the show would not have been the decision that I would have made. I don't agree with that decision, but I'm not in the front office. I'm not in the coaching staff, not a part of football operations. That's the decision that they have made. Everybody wants to know, and everybody's asking me, and I dropped some breadcrumbs on this yesterday, how do you get better in these third down and fourth down in short yardage situations for the Dolphins? Where does it get better? How do you get better if you don't have an offensive line that can line up and churn out piles at the line of scrimmage? And it's a valid question, because it's been a big problem for my. And I dropped some stats on yesterday's show that we are going to expand upon here significantly on today's episode of Lockdown Dolphins. The filter, which we're going to be looking at the Dolphins in their running game and their third and fourth downs and their success rates and conversion rates and their play trends, all of that. It's third and fourth down and four yards or less to go. Four is maybe technically classified as medium, upper range of long down and distance to achieve. But if you average four yards a carry, you feel pretty good about your running game being a modestly good running game. So we're going to include it here. Third and fourth down and four or less yards to achieve. The number that I dropped yesterday was the dolphins converted on a 100% of those rush attempts out of 12 personnel, which is one running back into tight ends since the start of 2022. You can expand that to 12 and 21 personnel, which Alec Ingold has enough ambiguity in the places that he can line up. You can do 12 personnel things with a full back. You can do 21 personnel things and half him is a full back in the backfield. I think when we get into this year's group, there's going to be some more flexibility with the players that you have to further blur the lines between the two and more importantly, blur the lines between 12 and 21 personnel and your other personnel packages. Dolphins batted a thousand the last two years out of 12 and 21 personnel running on third and fourth down every single attempt that they had was converted for a first downer touchdown. It's not bad, right? Yeah, they ran at a rate that was 40, 35, 40% lower than league average across that two year sample size. The dolphins averaged 4.8 yards per carry with a long rush of 15 yards on those attempts. How many attempts are there? It's less than 20, but the league average is 19 and a half. So you're talking about a very slim margin. The sample sizes get bigger as we expand this date out and look at these personnel groupings. Teams like the Rams, they ran six reps at this in the last two years combined. Teams like Atlanta and Baltimore ran over 50 reps apiece. Most teams sit between 12 and 24 attempts over the last two years. If you could think of 8 to 10 critical third down distances last year, third and fourth down and middle or shorts last year. How many of them did the dolphins put the ball in the air? How many of them did they run? It obviously wasn't very many that they run because the sample size over the last two years is fairly small. And yet every time they do it, they convert for a first down. This isn't just incidental on explosive plays, the 15 yard long run for the dolphins across their attempts the last two years is ranked 16th out of the NFL out of all teams in the NFL across those conditions. The dolphins average the second highest yards per carry against eight man boxes in those circumstances behind only the Baltimore Ravens. The dolphins averaging over six yards per carry on third and fourth down and four or less to go when running out of 12 or 21 personnel, converting a hundred percent of the time. But doing so at a rate that is 35, 40% below the league average across the last two years. What's even more interesting, the dolphins posted average yards before contact was nearly a half yard higher than the league average in those circumstances as well. And their backs averaged nearly one and a quarter yards more after contact. And this zone rushing system does put more pressure on the backs and more responsibility on the backs to make the runs work because of how they are taught to press the line of scrimmage and how they're taught to use their vision and how they're taught to play off the blocks in front of them. Timey averaging 4.8 yards per carry on those attempts is 1.6 yards higher than the league average. This is a very impressive performance for a very small sample size of what the dolphins do on third and fourth down. How does it compare to some other personnel packages? When the dolphins line up and go 22 personnel, which is two backs and two tight ends, and 22 jumbo, which is two backs, two tight ends, one of those tight ends being an extra offense of tackle, the dolphins have 15 attempts out of those two packages toward the two variations of 22 and they average 1.9 yards per carry versus a league average of 3.4 and convert on 53% of their rush attempts over the last two years that ranks 19th in the NFL. Most notable here San Francisco attempted 20 attempts versus 15 from Miami. And they convert on 75% versus 53 from Miami and average 6 yards per carry versus less than 2 for the dolphins. So this ideology of the dolphins and who they have up front and what they are is an identity along the offensive line. There's a balance to it. It's not just as simple as run out there in heavy personnel packages and run the ball. And that's where you account for the speed that Miami has and how that is an identifying variable of all of their skill players. You have to have some level of threat of that across the board in order to maximize these opportunities when you line up and decide it's third and three, we're going to run the ball. You can't just run downhill. Now maybe Jalen Wright changes some of that because that's a little bit more of his MO as a player. But again, I think it's very telling that out of the attempts in 12 and 21 personnel, the dolphins were above average in yards before contact. And in 22 and 22 jumbo, they did not have, they averaged almost as few yards per carry with a significantly lower success rate, about half the rate as what Miami average before contact in their 12 and 21 packages. We're going to look at these numbers for the dolphins versus across the league. We're going to look at the dolphins and their success on 11 personnel, which is three wide receivers on the field versus either two 10 ends or two backs. We're going to put the numbers for the data that we have into context. We're going to look at what the potential barriers are to why the dolphins haven't done this more in the past two years and dig into what potential answers the team has at their disposal. That's coming your way next here on this episode. Don dolphins stick with us. You get tired after lunch, if so, you're not alone. In fact, research shows that more than 70% of us hit the wall after lunch. Let a five hour energy shot help you leap over that wall instead of crashing into it with zero sugar, a convenient portable size. It is the perfect pick me up for getting stuff done. Five hour energy website has flavors galore like watermelon, tropical burst, grape, berry. There's a flavor for pretty much everyone, so feel free to try them all. You can build your own 12 pack or 24 pack on the site, choose the flavors and it is delivered directly to your door. If you go to five hour energy.com, that is the number five hour energy.com and get some five hour energy. You can pick yourself up today, avoid that post lunch wall. You can use promo code locked on FB to receive 20% off your order. This offer is only valuable until September 30th on one order and cannot be used in other promotions. This code is not good on subscription orders. Go to five hour energy.com today. If you're looking to refinance or get a loan right now, let me tell you about intercap lending. Intercap lending is one of the largest independent lenders in the country. They are hyper responsive. They embrace change and their borrower experience is absolutely fabulous. That locked on, we have our own personal loan officer, intercap lending. His name is Steve Carter and if you call him and tell him you're locked on, you get the corporate discount. But more than that, what's so great about Steve Carter is the reviews that locked on that we continually get about Steve. Mike Curtis emailed me to say, I just wanted to thank you for your network. We just refied with Steve Carter. It was so incredibly easy. I can attest to it. I got my loan done with Steve Carter. Who else? Richard Gordon emailed me and said. Thank you so much for promoting intercap lending. We used them earlier this year. Steve was amazing and Steve is amazing. Call them at 385-885-385885-8528, tell them to lock down, send you intercap lending, NMLS, number 19-0-465. For more information, visit intercap lending.com. So we're geeking out on numbers here, obviously. Let's look at 11 personnel. The dolphins, they run a lot of 21, but a lot of their 21 incidences are on first and 10. They like to run 11 personnel through wide receivers on the field. That was the sales pitch doe doe doe back and we can help us on third down. I don't know, that's our third wide receiver. The dolphins, when they ran the ball out of 11 personnel, we're going to get into a lot of 11 personnel, but when they ran the ball out of 11 personnel on third and fourth and four less, the last two seasons, the team is dead last in the NFL in conversion rate for first downs, mind you, small sample sizes, 100% of the time they ran in 12 and 21. They got a first down. They ranked dead last in the NFL, 34% of the time, one out of every three attempts they got the first down, out of 11 personnel. They average 0.78 yards before contact on twice the amount of attempts that they have out of 21 and 12 personnel combined. Think about that, literally half the yards before contact with less hats in the box, less heavy players on the field. Makes sense. The dolphins have a lot of small wide receivers. Part of the reason why I'm kind of pumped about going through those is part of the reason why I'm pumped about some other players that we're going to talk about at other positions. Players have the fourth fewest attempts in the NFL out of 11 personnel from a rushing perspective, 23 attempts for 2.1 yards per carry. The league averages 3.7, so you have the yards before contact as your own personnel groupings when you're in 12 or 21 in the same conditions and you average 1.6 yards per carry less than the league average when you run out of 11 personnel. How bad is it? The dolphins could go in 12 and 21 personnel their next 22 attempts on third and fourth down and four or less and not get any of them and their percentage in 12 and 21 would still be higher than their 11 personnel success rate running the ball in these conditions. Now, you would look at that and not be surprised to hear that Miami's rush rate of 20% of play calls when they face third and fourth down out of 11 personnel, 20% of the time they're calling run plays. They pass it an 80% clip. You get to 12 and 21 in those same conditions, their run rate is 52% versus 48% predictability. It's the Mike Gaseki quandary all over again. When Mike Gaseki was on the field, the dolphins passed the ball 80% of the time. You get to third and short and if you're in 11 personnel, it doesn't matter that it's third and short. You're going to pass the ball 80% of the time. It tells you that's what's going to happen over a two year sample size. This isn't even a one year sample size. Out of these numbers rank across the league, in all personnel groupings, all play calls, the dolphins face 169, third and fourth down and four or less since the start of 2022. That's the 28th number in the NFL. Teams face it a lot more often than the dolphins do. The good news is the dolphins average 0.7 yards more per play in all down in distances or in all personnel groupings and all play calls in third and fourth down and four or less, 5.4 yards per play. Their total, regardless of personnel grouping, first down conversion per rush, regardless of the personnel group, is 53.7%, so barely over 50%. That number is dead last in the league, regardless of personnel group. And yet you have a combo of full back and tight end when you have one of those players as an extra, as your adjuster player, which is what the phrasing in terminology is in the playbook, and they're referred to as the X player in the playbook. And Mike McDaniel, I asked him about the tight end position in general about the versatility of explicitly tight ends, but I included Alec Engel in the question and the quote that he gave me and it lingers for all of this conversation for me. Look at the versatility of that group, turn the page, and that's the versatility of your offense. That's the direct quote from Mike McDaniel, regardless of your run personnel, 53% dead last conversion rate when you ran the ball on third and fourth down and four or less. Right having 100% conversion rate on your money first down package that you ran at a higher rate than anybody else in the league, on first and pen, and 12 personnel, which they hardly ever ran. Their rush rate is 31st in the NFL in front of only Minnesota, 32% of the time. So almost 70% of the time, regardless of personnel packages, if it's third and fourth down and four or less, they're passing the ball 70% of the time. Baltimore runs the ball 71% of the time. Philadelphia runs the ball 66% of the time and Atlanta has run the ball with Arthur Smith 60% of the time on third and fourth and four or less. San Francisco is seventh overall at 51% of the time they run the ball. So they're over 50% run rate Green Bay, a little closer to Miami, 40%. Again, Miami is at 32. And in all circumstances, pass or run, Miami ranks 29th in the NFL in successful play rate according to EPA per play at 51.1%. This is a problem area of the offense across the league measuring success. And yet you have this very small, very specific formula of personnel packaging that has worked. Why did it work? Why haven't they done it more? We're going to explore all of that next here on this episode of Lockdown Dolphins. Stick with us. Football season starts in the NFL a week from tonight. Season opener, the Dolphins about 10 days out from hosting the Jaguars at Hard Rock Stadium. And if you want to get down to the stadium to catch the game, you got to get your tickets, your game time, take the guests work out of buying tickets with game time. You get all in views, all in prices, no surprises when you put the tickets into your cart. You know what your sight lines are. You know what your total cost is. They've got the game time guarantee, game time picks, filters out the fluff to show you the incredible deals on great seats that you don't have to waste time searching for the right tickets at the right cause for you. Take the guests work out of buying tickets with game time, download the game time app creating account and use code locked on NFL for $20 off your first purchase, terms to apply game creating account redeem code locked on NFL for $20 off, download game time today. What time is it, it's game time. Out of just 12 and 21 personnel, the Dolphins run rate was 52.2% as we already alluded to. Their total attempts out of 12 and 21 over the last two seasons ranks 20th in the NFL, 23 total snaps over the last two seasons, small sample size, but you win the margins. Think of the 23 critical third downs that the Dolphins had last year, one and a half per game and ask yourself, would you have liked them to get an extra one and a half third downs per game knowing full well that you won't convert on 100% of them, but you give yourself a better chance than what they're doing now. Run rate of 52% of teams in the NFL, Atlanta 88 snaps out of 12 and 21 personnel over the last two seasons, one third and fourth and four or less. Only Baltimore, Kansas City and Philadelphia were also above 45. Everybody else was below 45. So Miami, very much in the thick of it, even though they ranked 20th as far as league standards for those personnel packages on third down yards per play. This is where it gets really interesting, three and a half, despite averaging 4.8 yards per rush and 100% conversion rate on third and fourth down. They ranked 3.4 yards per attempt, passing the ball with a 33% conversion rate, passing the ball out of 12 and 21 on third and fourth down. Their yards per play, despite averaging 4.8 yards per carry, was 3.5 ranks 21st in the NFL. And yet, despite all that, their NFL rank in successful play percentage, according to EPA per play, is 7th at 68% because you ran the tar out of the ball in those situations. When they were in 11 personnel, they had 23 attempts in 12 and 21 on third and fourth down and four or less. Out of 11 personnel, they had 113 attempts that also ranked 25th in the NFL. So it's not a high volume either versus the standards across league. The run rate goes from 52% to 20% of the time, so a four to one ratio of passing the ball on third and fourth and short and you did it at four times the clip. Your third down conversion rate, 51%, your fourth down conversion rate, 55%. Your third down conversion rate went down 17% versus when you did it in 12 and 21. You ranked 6.2 yards per play so you had more than double the yards per play out of 11 personnel because you averaged 8.6 yards per attempt, which was number three in the NFL and you averaged 2.1 yards per rush. It's 34% conversion. So you had a 33% conversion rate when you passed the ball out of 12 and 21 and you had a 34% conversion rate when you ran the ball out of 11. You can see there's a very clear divide and when you want to pass the ball and Mike has wanted to pass the ball, you're going to call the plays in which you average 8.6 yards per attempt when needing four yards and convert on 60% of your attempts, which is 11 personnel. The irony here is their NFL ranked in successful play percentage and EPA per play, in spite of being third in yards per attempt, third in yards per play, is 29th in the NFL because your percentages went down. You went down 17% in conversion rate despite having significantly better passing metrics in 11 personnel and you can expand this to third and medium to kind of explore why the dolphins have done this, why they've tended to stray away from this thing that you don't do a lot of on third and short, even though you do a lot of it on first and 10. The dolphins were number one in the NFL in yards per play, 7.7 yards on third and medium, which is seven or less. There's only one of the team in the league above 6.3 yards per play. They're almost a yard and a half in front of the entire field. There were number one in yards per attempt, 9.5 yards, number four in first downs per attempt, number three in drop back percentage, number one in pass rating, 124.6. And yet, we're number 13 in EPA per play success rate, number 14 in third down conversion rate, number 14 in fourth down conversion rate because they average 3.3 yards per carry with a 14% rush rate, which was 10% below the league average. You have to blur the lines more. And that's where I look at John who Smith, that's where I look at Jalen Wright, that's where I look at Devan Achan as a potential pass weapon. I look at the development of Julian Hill. These players are the keys to you finding better consistent success rate. It's not lining up in eye formation and running downhill at teams because they tried the 22 jumbo stuff. They put six offensive linemen out on the field and ran with a fullback and an extra tight end. And they had 0.75 yards before contact. It's not how the roster is constructed. So instead of trying and wishing and hoping and waiting for it to be something that it's not, understand there's other tools that are at play to help you provide answers. And if Mike McDaniel, and if I apply the quote that Mike McDaniel provided me at training camp, you look at the versatility of your adjusters in your personnel packages. Turn the page. It's the versatility of your offense. Their 11 personnel grouping was fundamentally flawed because it was far too dependent on passing the ball. They could not run the ball with six man surfaces. You get to seven man surfaces, which is either a fullback or a second tight end, and now you can't throw the ball. You average three and a half yards per tent. John who Smith, that's his whole deal. Alec Ingle, okay? Can we get him some more third down run? Can we be a little bit more committed? And I'm not asking you to completely turn it on a 10 and go for 70% pass rate to 70% run rate like the Baltimore Ravens. But your 12 and 21s, you are a 52% run rate. It's not like you're a tempo team that gets a chunk on second and 10 and gets up and says, "Hey, let's get up to the line of scrimmage. If anything, we want to spend less time at the line of scrimmage sometimes." So there's your answer. You look at the third and fourth down and four less success rates. In 11 personnel, they could throw the tar off the ball. They couldn't run the ball to save their life. You look at their 12 and 21 packages. They could run the ball, but they couldn't throw the ball to save their life. Being more dynamic with those personnel packages is the ticket to presenting more problems and preventing teams from stuffing you up on your third and middle or third and shorts. Will it work to be determined? The guys have to go out there and execute. I'm not going to sit here and promise that it's going to work. But I've done all the research to at least provide you with the pathway so we could stop looking at the offensive line group and saying, "When are they going to be able to run the ball in third and one?" So if I might make Daniel the first time I get a third and three, you know what I'm doing? I'm coming out in 12 personnel and I'm throwing the ball, and I'm probably scheming up a target for John Newsmith. And I want to present a new problem for you that you didn't have last year. So see what happens on third and three. And if they throw the ball, don't get mad, even if they don't get it. You have to expand the menu with that personnel package in order for that to be the answer that it looks like it can be because of your success running the ball with those surfaces. And I know somebody had asked this question. I think it was Curtis from ACE per head on social and said, you know, they can't control the front four with just their offensive line. But in the 12 and 21 packages, it often's posted the ninth best yards before contact against seven man boxes, the seventh best yard per contact against eight man boxes. And against seven man boxes plus out of all personnel groupings, even the 11 personnel group was top 10 in yards before contact in all situations, not third and fourth and short. Now if you want to say, well, from an 11 personnel standpoint, you need to be able to run the ball, how about instead of trying to make your receivers block better and put more pressure on your offensive line, just get somebody out there as one of your blockers who has some level of a dual threat ability that you have to account for. That's the path they've chosen to take. That's where you can find the answer whether or not it's going to work. I don't know. But at least you can look at it now and understand the data and see what the pathway and achieving this quest of better short yardage answers can be. We shall see. I'm Kyle crabs. That is today's episode of locked on dolphins. I appreciate you guys checking out the show. You can keep it locked in right here on locked on dolphins. It is your team every every day. You can find us on YouTube or wherever you listen to your favorite podcast, make it a great rest of your Thursday. I'll be back to talk to you all again soon. Go fans. Today's episode is brought to you by game time. Game time is a new feature called game time picks that makes getting tickets for your favorite live events even easier. Game time picks filters out the fluff to show you only incredible deals on great seats so you don't have to waste time searching through thousands of tickets. Take the guesswork out of buying tickets with game time. Download the game time app, create an account, use the code locked on for $20 off your first purchase. Download game time today. Last minute tickets lowest price guaranteed. (upbeat music)
