UFC 306 Noche Picks | O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili | DFS MMA DraftKings Picks
Brett Appley provides his quick preview and makes his UFC 306 Noche DraftKings Picks including his favorite Cash Game, Tournament and Salary picks of the week. Brett also provides his signature “Matchup for the Week” for all your DraftKings plays this weekend.
Show Index:
00:00 - Intro
00:31 - DraftKings Cash Play Of The Week
02:47 - DraftKings Tournament Play Of The Week
05:35 - DraftKings Salary Play Of The Week
07:48 - Draftkings Matchup of the Week
09:39 - Outro
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(upbeat music) - What's up everyone? Welcome to another UFC quick picks here on the Mayo Media Network. We have UFC 306 this weekend. Sean O'Malley vs. Marabh Devashvili in the main event, only 10 fights on the slate, but honestly, it's a super fun card to break down. There's gonna be a lot of fun action fights throughout the card and a lot of money to be won on DraftKings. As always, I'm here to give you my favorite cash game play, tournament play, salary play, and a matchup I like as well. And let's dive right into it with a cash game play here in Marabh Devashvili at 7.7k. Devashvili is the underdog in the main event plus 115 to Sean O'Malley. I think that might be a value, but I understand the logic behind backing O'Malley in the fight as well. He's a more technical striker, the better, more effective distance manager. And Marabh's not the most technical fighter in the world. However, Marabh is a literal machine, a grinder, and has insane metrics that make it hard to avoid him from a fantasy perspective. He's averaging 4.5, significant strikes landed per minute. 6.43 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, and what's even more impressive than that is that he's averaging 17 plus takedowns attempted per 15 minutes. That's more than one takedown attempted per minute. And if you look back to his last five round fight against Piotrion, Marabh attempted 49 takedowns in 25 minutes. It's just, this is an other worldly type of human being here to be able to pull off that kind of offensive production. And although Sean O'Malley made a fan takedowns, 62% takedown defense. In some fights, he hasn't had a lot of success doing so. In his fight against Piotrion, Jan got in on him, landed six takedowns on 13 attempts, didn't have too much difficulty, was able to control Sean for more than five minutes. So I think Marabh is likely to have some success. The fight is supposed to extend a bit, minus 120 over four and a half rounds. So although I think O'Malley does have some early KO equity, the fight still projected to extend. Marabh's takedown prop in this fight was like eight and a half juice toward the over. So I think you have to play Marabh in cash games. He just has a massive floor and ceiling in an extended fight, 167 fantasy points. The last time he won a five round fight is only two losses, which came in three rounds. He scored 99 and 73. So he's just one of the best fantasy performers in the sport in cash games at 7.7K. I will be locking him in. All right, my tournament play of the week, I'm going to roll with Joshua Van at a 0.9K. This isn't a super strong take, more of a semi-contrarian fighter, where I think there's going to be a ton of people who pay up to our All-Rosa's junior, rightfully so at 9.7K. There's going to be a ton of ownership in the mid-range, and this upper 8K lower 9K range may get under owned, maybe overlooked. And Joshua Van's coming off a knockout loss to Charles Johnson, that may impact ownership. He's getting an opponent in Edgar Shirez, who's just won by submission in round one. And I do think Shirez presents some danger to Van early in the fight, but ultimately, Van is a superior prospect in my eyes. He's a superior striker, throws better volume. Just a really dangerous combination box or two on the inside, he can attack multiple levels, he has fast hands. And he's topped out at 120 and 156 significant strikes over three rounds. And I just don't think Edgar Shirez can keep up with him. Shirez, in his only two decisions, has landed 51 and 25 significant strikes. He's been taken down seven times while landing zero take downs of his own in four-track fights. His metrics just aren't strong, his defense, he's defending strikes at 43%, he's defending take downs at 41%. There's just not a lot to suggest that Shirez can keep up with the pace of Van over three rounds, despite maybe being able to hurt him early or maybe landing the first take down of his career, for example, early. Shirez has some upside, but I really like the pacing of Van and he just gets more threatening as the fight goes on. If he can survive a couple of early exchanges, which I think is likely, Van can kind of press forward, wear you down and potentially find a finish in the mid or later rounds. Van is minus 245 to win. He's only plus 2.30 to win inside the distance, but I do think that will limit his ownership to a degree. Pass scored 135 and 106 already in wins in the UFC and the fighters priced above him, the Zell Huber and Yurigui don't necessarily have the best projections either, more likely to fight an extended fight. So I do think there's a chance that Van can survive, throw strikes at a high pace, maybe get a late round finish or dominate in the latter half of the fight, put up a decent score and still be a standout within this upper 8K, lower 9K range, because he's not going to be chalk, I don't mind him, like the matchup for him, I think it's a step down in competition and I'm willing to play him more than the field here at 8.9K in tournaments. All right, next up my salary play of the week, I'm just gonna roll with the other championship fight here to talk about Valentina Chevchenko. I think it's a good matchup to target and I definitely think Alexa Grasso can win. I do prefer Chevchenko from a fantasy perspective at 7.9K, she's the underdog. She was clearly winning the first fight against Grasso until she made a mistake, got her back taken and was submitted late in the fourth round in the rematch. Chevchenko was also ahead by most people's assumptions, but Grasso ended up pulling off a split decision draw. So fair play, Grasso's a good fighter in her prime at UFC NoJ. I definitely think Grasso can make rounds competitive here, but in 45 minutes of cage time, Chevchenko has landed more significant strikes. Chevchenko has outlanded Grasso in takedowns eight to one and it's just hard to project Grasso for a ton of offensive production. She isn't a great wrestler offensively or defensively and Chevchenko is a better defensive striker than her. So of the two, I'm more concerned about Grasso exceeding value in an extended fight where Chevchenko is wrestling at a high pace and in her two non victories, she scored 81 and a fourth round loss and 91 in the draw. If she had won either of those times, she probably would have topped 120 fantasy points. So I feel pretty comfortable that if Chevchenko gets her hand raise, she's going to score fairly well. I also think Grasso could score well. Grasso's been getting credited with a ton of non significant strikes in both matchups, which is why her results have been pretty strong too. And if she beats Chevchenko again, I think it's probably gonna either come inside the distance, capitalizing on a mistake of Chevchenko or an extended competitive fight in which she racks up another 150 plus non significant strikes and scores 90 to 100 points. So she can still end up optimal at 8.3 K as well, but I lean towards Chevchenko as a superior control fighter, the superior wrestler, the superior minute winner, 7.9 K, I think a real decent place to save salary this week. And finally, my match by the week, I'm going back to the mid range with Manuel Torres versus Ignacio Bahamundas. Very competitively lined fight. Torres is a slight favorite at minus 125 Bahamundas plus 109. On Draft Kings, Torres is 8.2 K, Bahamundas is 8 K and Torres has fought 17 times professionally, only made it to decision once. The vast majority of his fights are ending in round one and all three of ZOC fights have ended in round one to the tune of 103, 105 and 114 point scores on Draft Kings. He's plus 120 to win inside the distance, which is a really strong line for this price. I don't love him necessarily as a talent. I'm unsure of him as a talent, but if Torres wins, it's very likely to come early and that gives him plenty of fantasy upside and he makes for a very strong target at 8.2 K. Bahamundas is the leverage side, the fighter who's proven more over an extended period. He's won decisions in the UFC and he also fights at a high pace. And I kind of lean toward him in the matchup because I think he has a decent chance of surviving the early exchanges, in which case he's just proven a lot more over an extended period than Torres has. And maybe Torres will prove me wrong, we just don't have the footage one way or another, but point being Bahamundas has a clear path to victory on paper in an extended fight and the fight as a whole is minus 350 to end inside the distance. I like Bahamundas a lot as the leverage side there and I think I would lean toward him personally. He's put up scores of 116, 99 and 104, three of his last four wins. So he's shown fantasy upside already. And based on the pacing of Torres and Bahamundas, I think we're going to see fireworks early and hopefully a finish on one side or the other. That's why it's going to be my matchup of the week there in the mid eight Ks. That's going to do it for this week's UFC quick picks. Thank you so much for the support. You follow me on Twitter @birdapply double T double P establish around.com for all your draft Kings breakdowns needs just one and hour and a half with my boy Gordo Gamble is breaking out every single fight on that slate forward and breakdowns available as well rankings projections, everything you need to have success on draft Kings this weekend. Thanks to Pat and the team for having me on and best of luck in your contest this week. Everyone stay safe. We will talk to you all soon. Peace. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)
