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The Block M Podcast Network: A University of Michigan Podcast

Evaluating Michigan's 2024 floor and ceiling with PFF's Dalton Wasserman

Can Michigan still make it to the playoffs even though they had a rough go of it against No. 2 Texas last week? Trevor Woods spoke with Dalton Wasserman from PFF to analyze the biggest strengths and weaknesses of the 2024 Wolverines. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Duration:
22m
Broadcast on:
12 Sep 2024
Audio Format:
mp3

Can Michigan still make it to the playoffs even though they had a rough go of it against No. 2 Texas last week? Trevor Woods spoke with Dalton Wasserman from PFF to analyze the biggest strengths and weaknesses of the 2024 Wolverines.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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[MUSIC] >> Hello folks, Trevor Woods here from the Block M podcast, and I'm building it a fan first, sports network. >> Today I'm here with Dalton Wasserman who writes for PFF. He's an analyst, a contributor and the co-host of PFF College Football Show with Max Chadwick. You can follow Dalton on X at PFF_ Dalton. Dalton, how are we doing today, man? >> Fantastic, another week of football in the books, both college and NFL. We had a great week and we got another one coming. >> So what are you looking forward to the most this upcoming week in of college and NFL, if you give me one game of each? >> I'm really excited actually for college on Friday night. I think we have a great game in the big 12 between Arizona and Kansas State, two diverging styles. And it's a weird game because it's a conference game, but it's actually a non-conference game because of some contractual stuff and the way that work. But I still think it's going to be a great game between Arizona and Kansas State. And as far as NFL goes, I mean, how can you not love Chiefs' Bengals, right? And the Bengals coming off a rough one against New England and Kansas City is always prime time, so it's a great rivalry. So we'll see if the Bengals can bounce back, too. That should be fun on Sunday as well. >> Those should be fun games and you were at a, I don't know how fun it was for Michigan fans, but it was definitely a huge game. Over 9 million people tuned in, the highest rated, most watched thing on television on Saturday afternoon. Michigan, Texas, the Wolverines, they lost their first game in over a year. They lost to the Longhorns 31-12 who are now ranked number two in the nation. Michigan fell from number 10 to number 17. And Dalton, I mean, you just talked before we went on air that you were at that game, as was I up in that press box. What were your thoughts? >> You just have, I think you get to the end of the game and you go at least right now. Texas is a better team than Michigan all the way around. And that's not to say Michigan, if they played 10 times, couldn't go out there and beat them at some point. But I think my impression from Michigan from the first two weeks is just the amount of turnover on offense is a problem, right? You lost one of the best quarterbacks, if not the best quarterback in the school history. Blake Corum, a legendary running back is gone, Roman Wilson outside, lost six offensive linemen to the NFL, that's a whole new unit. So just, they just look out of sync right now, offensively, all the way around. I think there are multiple problems and honestly, as far as the defense goes, I still think the defense is really good. But Steve Sarkeesian put together just a masterful game plan. Texas's offensive line is really good and I think between the pace of play and then just their ability, I think they wore them down. I expect Michigan's defense to be better going forward if they're supported more by the offense. So the offense is a big question for me. Yeah, that's, yeah, it all goes together, right? It's all part of one big engine and the time of possession battle in the first half from Texas, they kept that Wolverine defense on the field a ton interior lineman who could be top 10 NFL draft picks in 2025, such as Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham from Michigan, they definitely were winded and had more snaps than they're accustomed to taking in a game because last year they had Chris Jenkins along the line and they could kind of rotate all those three guys in and out. So from a conditioning perspective, you would imagine things are going to even out in weeks to come because it's just that how things are greatly skewed for the first half of the game, half in which Texas scored 24 of their 31 points. But the fundamental elements, those are, I felt, to be more concerning. I believe by PFF count, there's around six missed tackles, communication errors. Obviously, there is a new defense coordinator in Wake Martindale this season, but could you just kind of give us your opinion on balancing what you feel is a very talented defensive roster for Michigan with a new scheme and what we did see on Saturday were some just fundamental errors? Yeah, two things. I think the conditioning part is a good point. I don't know that it's conditioning so much that it really need the offense to sustain drives. Texas ran 46 plays in the first half, which is a lot for a half. So I don't see any issues on the defensive line with guys like Graham and Grant. It's just by the end of the half, they were they were gassed. I think what I do see is they don't have quite as much depth and they're not quite as well-rounded on defense as they were last year. And a big part early of Texas's game plan was, look, just don't throw at Will Johnson. Don't throw at him, right? Or if you're talking about Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant, I don't think there's a lot of depth behind them at defensive tackles. So when they got gassed and then some back, some other guys, some backups had to start coming in. That's when it started to get ugly. I think early in the game, they were physical enough to play, but those are a couple of big things. I think they're a little more top-heavy. They're starting front four on defense on the defensive line is still arguably the best defensive line in the country. Josiah Stewart's off to a great start to this season. Derek Moore is really good and obviously the two big guys inside, but I think there's less depth up front. And I even think there's less depth in the secondary. That other corner spot is going to be a spot that teams attack. Whether that's going to be in a mere hall out there or it's going to be a Jair Hill or Zeke Barry, whoever it's going to be on the outside, they need to straighten that up. Because if you're a team with only one great corner, and offense is just not going to throw at that guy, right? And that's what Texas said. I remember they ran, I believe it was nine or 10 pass plays on their very first drive. And only one of them, and it was this only target of the day, only one of them went towards Will Johnson. They were throwing just the opposite way all the time and challenging players who just aren't on Johnson's level. So there's a part of it that's game planning. There's a part of it that is just, I think there's less depth. And then they also do need their offense to sustain drives because you can't have your defense on the field for 46 plays and a half. It was kind of a perfect storm to face a team like Texas. Clearly one of the best in the nation right now, and has one of the best quarter vaccinations between yours who at times put on an absolute clinic. I believe they were nine of 10 on their first 10, third down conversions, and just just quite impressive stuff on that end. And in Michigan in some previous seasons, they've had really weak non-conference opponents to start the year to have tune up games before things count for real against big 10 slate teams. And Michigan has a big one coming up against USC pretty soon. But let's get to the offensive side of the ball for the Wolverines, because like you said, they need to sustain drives. And Jerome Moore this week had coached Jerome Moore for Michigan talked about the run game and said that they need to, you know, they need to establish the run game. Basically, they need to be run heavy moving forward. The problem with that type of identity right now is they have a revamped offensive line, five new starters along the offensive line. They might have a couple of veterans such as Miles Hinton and Josh Griebay, who are transfers from Stanford and Northwestern. However, you have other guys such as Evan Link at right tackle who registered a really bad PFF grade of 27.2. That doesn't seem sustainable to even establish a running game. What do you think? Do you think they can turn the corner there? What are you seeing from the offensive line, not just in run blocking, but pass protection? So they're struggling and we're seeing this from other teams who maybe brought in a lot of transfers for the majority of their offensive line or just have a lot of new faces starting. It takes time to get in sync. I think there's a broader scope to this even when you're talking about the running game because when you when you had JJ McCarthy and you had, I'll say, a Roman Wilson as a threat on the outside, you had at least McCarthy as a rushing threat himself. He was, I think he's a better athlete than obviously than Davis Warren and not that Davis Warren is. I don't know that we know enough about Davis Warren yet to really judge him behind this line and with these receivers. The problem they're having right now is that Warren is not a legitimate rushing threat like McCarthy was. So teams can stack the box. The other thing is, so now you put it, let's say you put in Alex Orgy and okay, that's a rushing threat, but he's not much of a passing threat. The accuracy isn't there. If I could put Warren and Orgy both into one can combine their abilities into one quarterback that you'd have something really, really good, but they're so different and the problem is, is you can tell what's coming with each of them in the game. Yes, their offensive line isn't blocking great. I think Colall Mullings has run the ball well and very physical and I think that's a guy that maybe needs to at least split or get more carries than a don of it Edwards because Edwards just, he's a good worker in space, but he's not finding a lot of space. I think what's hurting their run game more actually is the lack of consistency in the passing game and just this lack of the so many teams that are good at running the ball because they have that added dimension of a running quarterback, but the way Michigan has it right now is they need Warren out there for the passing game. If you put Orgy on the field right now, there's going to be 10 guys in the box and it's going to be more stacked and the numbers game still doesn't favor you. So I think it, I think it correlates with, if they can get the passing game together, I actually think it goes into improving this run game, right? Because I think the best, one of the best moments I think we saw from Michigan, it was in the second quarter, they ran the flea flicker, right? They got the big play on the flea flicker and then they came out on the next two or three plays and ran the ball and it was with a little more success. I think that's a perfect example of, look, we have to get people off us because otherwise everyone in the box is breathing down our necks. I agree and that's been a little more confusing to me. Alex Orgy, he's attempted just just a couple passes this season. One went for a touchdown on the goal on a three yard touchdown, another one was quite errant. But if they don't allow Orgy to pass more for better or worse, especially as you alluded to when there's 10 guys in the box, you're kind of, you know, forecasting what you're going to do and the defense is going to be flying all the more downhill because of it. So we're going to talk about warning the receivers in a second. But real quick, do you think, I asked Brady Quinn this and Brady Quinn says they should get down to the average in space more and utilize them as a receiver believes that mullings and Edwards should have two back sets together, get your best guys on the field. What do you think about that? That last part I'm always a fan of if you have two great running backs put them both out there at the same time. If Edwards, here's the thing with Edwards, if his speed and if it works on the outside, if it can help you in some sense, getting down the field vertically, if you send Edwards out and he runs a six yard curl, I don't think that helps you at all. I think they need a way, they need ways to get this offense working down field vertically because they're having problems throwing outside of that kind of 10 yard bubble. Right now through two weeks, they're passing game to me looks like, where is Colston Loveland going to line up? And just how can we create a mismatch, which is great. That's what you should do with Loveland. But you saw taxes just key in on that because the other receivers aren't winning the battle. They need someone, even if it is Edwards, to win down, even if not win down the field, just be able to threaten down the field. If it's a decoy, you just can't have everybody within eight yards of the box. So if Edwards is that speed threat that can help them outside and line up out there and even just look, just chuck him a go ball just to say, just to say to the defense we'll do it because right now Michigan on the whole and the problem with that too is trying to get down field. The past protection hasn't been good. It's right now our past blocking grade. We have Michigan as the fourth worst team in the power five and past blocking grade. You're down there with teams like Kentucky and Vanderbilt and Colorado. They're right next to Colorado in the past protection ranks, which obviously that's been highly publicized because it's criticized every week. So you need better password protection, obviously, to throw it down the field. But they also, if they could use Edwards as a speed threat to get vertical and get out of that kind of 10 yard bubble they're living in, it would help them a lot. It would help them in the run game too. Yeah, like you said, the plan kind of seems to be just, hey, get Lovelin in space, get him open, get him down the seam, just get into Lovelin period. Even guys are draped on him. Oh, which has been the case too. For example, to your point in week one against Fresno State, Lovelin had eight receptions for 87 yards and that accounted for 70% of Warren's passing guard. So that's just simply not sustainable no matter how good of an athlete you are in the receiving game because against the big boys they're going to bottle that up at some point and make somebody else beat you. So not going to happen. So let's get to Davis Warren because you just pointed out the Wolverines have one of the worst pass blocking grades in the power five. The receivers in their own right are not gaining separation, getting open, catching the ball consistently. So there's certain things, you know, that's not helping the quarterback out. And Warren's PFF grade was a pretty favorable considering things did not go Michigan's way whatsoever against Texas. He had a 75.8 grade, which you tell me, but I would consider that okay, not bad. But at the same time, just from just my eyes in the press box, it seems, and I asked him this after the game and he kind of said it'd be true and put the onus on him said he shot Michigan in the foot too many times. But to me, Warren looks a tick behind with his progressions and how he sees the field. He locks on to a guy too often kind of telegraphs what he's going to do. What do you see from Warren to this point for better and worse? I think a combination of things and that is a decent grade. But the problem is like his grade in each of the first two games is kind of leaned into fourth quarter production when the game is kind of out of hand. So the first half getting off to a good start and getting into the first half is an issue. I think for Warren, look, it's a lot. Honestly, first of all, there's a lot of pressure that comes with that job. And I think everybody's going to breathe in. They're going to be breathing down his neck at every mistake he makes. And I think more so to me, I think we can lock on a little bit. And I think there's times when he locks on to love Linda a little bit when he's instead of making his full read. But I think there's also an element where you can see times too, where he knows right now this past protection, he's got to either get rid of it or he's got to do do some things out of turn. I think about when it was 17 to three and late in the second quarter and they were driving with, I think it was inside the two minute warning, that he had that ball up the scene that I believe he missed to Symmaj Morgan, he overthrew it. That was a ball to me that he actually rushed. And he was feeling feeling some pressure and he needed to stand in there. And that was a throw that could have got them back in the game and he overshot it. Look, I know it's tough to make throws when guys have breathing down your neck. But you have to be able to stand in there and make those throws. And in this offense, you have to make all of the right, the proper reads, whether it's to the guy you want to throw it to or the second guy or whoever. I think I think it's a matter of this. It's all it all goes together because it gets the guys heads, right? It's you get that consistent pressure, especially for a guy who's not that mobile, he can move a little, we saw make a couple of throws on the move late in the game. But I don't think he's mobile in the same way that McCarthy was or say even an Alex Orgy is. So it all goes together. He has to be so pinpoint right now because the coverage is so close and so tight. I think the past protection actually has him rushing things a little bit. And I think he's just he's kind of forced to throw into tight windows. It's it's a very tough job. It's a tough job already to be Michigan's quarterback. We know this, but I think Warren has a very tough job trying to lead all of this youth on this offense. Very tough job. And it's going to get tougher. Big 10 has expanded and has made Michigan schedule a little more difficult, especially with USC prime to have a better year than a year ago, even though Cal Williams was their quarterback, Miller Moss looking pretty darn good. So week from now, next Saturday, Michigan plays USC. A couple weeks later, they're at Washington. They play Ohio State this year. They play Oregon. They play an Indiana team in Bloomington who has had pretty darn good PFF grades this point this season. So not to pinpoint you to specific prediction. But what do you think the ceiling of this Michigan team is or can be this season? I mean, with the talent on their defense and a big and the big 10 schedule, obviously, and it's more rugged football than you see from not the Texas didn't play rugged football, but they're very much more spread out and have a lot of speed and all of that. Look, I think is it possible that you can still find yourself at 10 and two and in contention for a playoff spot? I think it's possible. They have this defense, but they have to find things on offense. That's definitely still the ceiling. Look, I think there was people who even if Michigan had played a little better, there's still people who would have picked Texas to win this game, right? I think right now the issue is there suddenly is a wider range of outcomes on the low end, because any team that feels comfortable that, look, we can hold Michigan. We think we can hold Michigan to 14 or 17 points. Even a team like a USC or you mentioned Indiana who brought it in a lot of talent this year or a Washington who normally you would think like, oh, Michigan should beat them, but if you can't score and you can't sustain drives, you leave a lot of teams in games, right? And I think they have a lot to figure out this week, offensively, even against an Arkansas state team who's decent, probably pretty close to the same level as a Fresno State before USC next week, because USC's defense is playing better than it did last year, and Miller Moss is really, really good. If I'm playing this Michigan team as an opponent right now, I'm going, look, we have to not make mistakes. Don't turn the ball over. And if we get to somewhere around 24 to 27 points, we feel like we can beat them because we don't know that they can put that up. It does start with the run game, but I think they do have to get more balance. They have to find explosive plays, because if you walk in against any team and you can't make explosive plays, you're making the opponent's life a lot easier. So I think the ceiling with their defense and as much talent as they have, especially on defense is still like 10 and two and a playoff spot and at large spot, but they have to, they cannot, they can't go and not sustain drives and score six points of three quarters in their biggest games again. That just won't work. It will not work, but you know what worked this interview. It's going to be an enlightening one for college football fans and Michigan fans to listen to. Dalton, thank you so much for coming on the podcast. Could you please tell the folks listening where they can find your stuff online and how to follow you and all that stuff? Absolutely. We have the PFF College Football Show on YouTube where we preview all of the biggest games of the week on Tuesday nights at six o'clock myself and Max Chadwick. And then we go back on Sunday mornings at 9 a.m. We review a lot of those games, if not all of them, talk about some other big story lines, find our standouts throughout the country that played well that week. So a lot, a lot going on big time game previews and reviews again Sunday at 9 a.m. and Tuesday at 6 p.m. on the PFF College Football Show channel on YouTube. Yeah, it's a great stuff. Everybody should go check that out. Thanks again, Dalton. Before I get out here today, I want to talk about autograph. I'm excited to be partnering with autograph. I'm a fan of company co-founded by Michigan hero Tom Brady. Their amazing fan app autograph is now available to all Michigan fans and gives die-hard Wolverine fans like you a one-stop shop for your Michigan fandom. Autograph has all the best Michigan fan content in one place and awards you for all the things you're already doing as a fan, like listening to this podcast. 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