Gorilla Sports
Gorilla Sports podcast NFL edition with @JWebb777
[music] Around on little things, and live betting actually, once I can actually sit down and like follow the game script, it's easy to find guys. Like, I was able to bet in the Detroit game, Williams getting over his receiving yards after I was like, "Right." As soon as they threw one to him, I actually did his rushing and receiving together. He did like, you know, an end-around or something like that, and I'm like, "Oh shit, they're really looking to get this guy involved." So, got in on him, that was a nice one, once he started, yeah, once he started seeing a mason absolutely carving up the jets. I was like, "Okay." So I took him over like 105 or something like that after he rushed a really long one right to the, almost scored a touchdown. And I was like, "Okay, like, he's seven and eight yards at a time. They're gonna win this game now." Like, we were both on the jets, which looked good at the time with all the closing line value, but all Green Bay could come up with this one drive. And then, yeah, they just kind of had the same like, vanilla game plan. Let's run it twice into the offensive line with Breeze Hall. And then, let's pray that Rogers can make a third down conversion, and he just wasn't. So, man, I had some, like, I did not have a profitable week for NFL, which is like extra frustrating because it's gonna happen, right? Like, every season, you're gonna have a lot of weeks that aren't profitable, but like, week one, it stings a little bit extra because you're like so excited, you've been waiting so long for holding back, and then just everything blows up in your face. It's funny because your betting style is very sharp, right? Like, you take a lot of dogs, you take a lot of unders, which is like where the money is supposed to be, but this was a pretty Joe public week. So, guys, like myself, that try and find good avenues, but I rarely take unders. I fucking hate betting unders. There's nothing worse than watching your guy. You know, like, if you have it over and, you know, like, you're not dead until that last whistle blows kind of deal. But when you're taking unders, you can lose in the first quarter and you're just like, you've got to be kidding me, really? So, I jumped on the Rams getting five and a half. Yeah, because I saw that line move and I'm like, I'm gonna take the five and a half. Yeah. And of course, they lose by a touchdown and overtime. Yeah. And I knew you're big on Tennessee and they get the last three last three drives cost you that one. I actually got out of it. I actually, I was, I was watching it live, and I saw the tides turning and I looked at my cash. Cash out on two separate bets, taking or getting the points with Tennessee. Yeah. And the cash out was only like 15% of, you know, what I would have gotten if I had, you know, bought outright. And so I took, I took both of them. I'm like, good for you. Just scored. You know, they like Chicago just scored to get it within like one. It was, it was a score after I got to 17, 16. And I'm like, Nope, this doesn't feel good. The Tennessee offense. And we'll talk about them a little bit. Looks terrible. I'm gonna get out of this while I still have a profit. I'm just so happy to take this. I would have lost the plus four and a half when, you know, they were up 17 nothing. I would have absolutely lost it. Yeah, no kidding. Your boy, Levis got torch there a little bit. Well, and then I had the under in the Jets game too. And it's like, they did so bad offensively, but they just couldn't stop the 49ers. So let's, let's talk through this week a little bit. We can hit this the Thursday game. Yep. But while on the note of, you know, talking about the Titans and the Jets, let's go to that game for a second. Because that is one where like I'm super conflicted. I, the Titans defense looked really damn good. Like it would be one's first start. I get that. Yeah, great. So where I'm at is like, I kind of want to take this three and a half with the Titans. I mean, the Jets defense was out on the field a lot on Monday. And this is a short turnaround. And they're going to Tennessee. So like they flew back late at they didn't get home until the wee hours of the morning Tuesday. They got a turnaround. Got their defense was on the field for like, what was the time I'm going to pull up? I want to know. Yeah, it was massive. It was crazy. Like that was an insane amount of defensive snaps that they were out there for. And so, like, and a lot of them got injured too, right? A lot of guys came off the field. Sauce and Moseley in the middle. Like they got some injuries for sure. Yeah. So like I want to be on the Titans. All things considered. Time possession was 38 minutes and 40 seconds for the 49ers and 21 20 for the Jets. And then like a lot of that was like garbage time, like that later touched down as well. So like the defense was out there. I fucked on, but like that makes me want to take the Titans getting the hook in the three and a half. I mean, this may not be the Jets defense that we all the people were thinking it was going to be like they I get that the 49ers are really damn good, but that was with Brandon. I you know, playing like shit and not having practiced it all and Mason looks great, but it was also without McCaffrey. And so it's like. Can like, and you know, I think Tony Pollard looks pretty damn good. I did. He I'm not going to say he's like as good as his, you know, his peak in Dallas, but he looks really good. And I think they can, you know, they can do enough on defense like. Rogers, you know, he showed one good drive other than that. It was not much of anything. Breeze Hall looked OK. Their offensive line was mediocre. Tennessee still has a strong D line. So it's like the three and a half feels like the right play, but I'm just so. I'm like questioning every every thought process I have right now because of the kind of week I had. Yeah, fair enough. I know. Yeah, that's the problem, right? But it's once you see it in week two as well, then you're like, OK, there's a pattern. This team may not be as good. Like, you know, can since he come back this week or, you know, some other teams that like laid an absolute dud in that Tennessee game. I've been looking at Tony Pollard over his rushing yards. Now I saw it set at 49 and a half. I took a shot at that one already. I see it kind of ticking up to like 51 and a half. But yeah, so I mean, the way that, you know, San Francisco, obviously, their offensive line and their scheme is a whole different animal. But to have a backup running back scorched them for 150 yards and we're looking for Pollard to get 50. So I mean, he just put up 82 last week. We weren't really sure on his splits with Taji Spears, but like the rushing totals themselves were 16 to four for Pollard versus Spears last week. So I mean, they're really looking to use him. And yeah, I mean, the Jets couldn't stop anything. I mean, just gashing 7, 8, 10, 20 yard rushes over and over again. So I don't know with Pollard coming up with 82 last week. I like him over his 50, 50 plus 49 and a half, 51 and a half somewhere in that area. Yeah. And I mean, the the D line for the Jets had to deal with 38 rush attempts from the 49ers. Yeah. And it was 38 attempts of them just getting absolutely ran over. Like it was it was not a good look. So I like the Pollard call. I'm like, so like the will love his stuff like that. I mean, it's going to be that is one of the greatest means of all time. The picture of him on his knees with his hands behind his head, like watching that interception here. I don't know if you've seen that picture. I have it. No, no. Oh my God. I got to find it. There is. Yeah. There's this amazing picture of him, like on his knees, hands behind his head, just in disbelief on that interception return for a touchdown. What did I do? It's phenomenal. But yeah, I like the I like the Pollard call there. I haven't gotten too deep into a lot of props just because like we were texting earlier. Yeah, they are now, but let's go to the Thursday game. You got anything for Thursday? I do. Yeah. Yeah. Absolutely. All right. Yeah. So, I mean, I think we should start with kind of how these teams looked in week one. Like obviously, the tie reached up was so weird on Monday morning, but he still went out there and bald out. You know, they started off really slow. Jacksonville was doing whatever they wanted on him. Jacksonville goes ahead and blows that game, too. I had had that money line. That was great. But they covered the three and a half. So I'll take it. So, you know, so we see that and then. Meanwhile, you got the bills who also started slow against the Cardinals, but they turned it on. Josh Allen went into superhero mode and, you know, I think what we saw out of them in week one is what they want to do, at least for a while, offensively, like they want to run the ball. They want to control the line of scrimmage and they want to keep these high powered offenses like Arizona, like Miami on the sidelines. Meanwhile, with Miami, like, it wasn't EPM, but it was Travis Tank Bigsby, who was breaking off runs against him. So my, my favorite bet in this game, which I don't think you can't get the number anymore. I grabbed it at 50 and a half, which I took the under in this one. Okay. Yeah. Just because like, I do think that the, the bills, they can control the line of scrimmage. And I think they will do that. And, you know, Josh looked great. He has the left wrist injury, but thankfully it's not a throwing hand. Yeah. So, I don't know, I really liked the under when I was able to get at that number. I feel like at 49, it's not really a play in my book. But I also think that like the Dolphins, O line is so pretty shaky. And the, the bills got after Kyler Murray and they sat in a decent number of times. Like, they had a really good game there. And so against a not like a barely mobile quarterback, like to, I think that they can tee off on him as well. That's a good call. Yeah. When I originally started diving into it, I had the thought that I was going to like Miami and I've kind of switched. I'm over to Buffalo now. I like Buffalo plus those points. And actually, I really like Buffalo in a teaser. I like taking that two and a half and get it up to eight and a half across all the key numbers. There's a couple other teams that, that also have, have good lines that I wouldn't mind teasing them with. But to a can't beat Buffalo. He's one in six versus Buffalo. I don't know if you do that. He's got a 77.4 passer rating, six touchdowns to seven interceptions. So to it doesn't actually play well against Buffalo. But it actually Josh, when he just decides that he's going to take over the game, it's like, there's only so many guys like him in the NFL that it's like he can throw it, he can run it, he can do whatever he wants. And it's literally just, you know, it's backyard ball. And I mean, kind of Kyler does the same thing. That's why it's kind of a strange game. Those two running around getting all those Russian yards. But Josh Allen, he's six and one Thursday night football as well, which is, which is actually a pretty good look. But yeah, so on just the sides and totals, I won't touch the total. I know it's kind of it's bouncing all over the place. It sounds like you got a great number on that under. But yeah, if I was going to take a side, it would definitely be Buffalo plus those two and a half points. But I definitely like them up on a teaser. And I got a couple of props I like on this game as well. OK, yeah, I I like the teaser. So I can draft into one of them. Let me get a decent side bet on a teaser. I fucking not stand on. All right. Yeah. Because my favorite one to tease them with is the Broncos, actually. OK, I really and we'll we can get to that game a little bit. But if I can do a teaser, that is that's where I want to go with this is teasing. The bills and the Broncos each up to eight and a half. It just sucks because like the teaser price on the case is so good. Like it'll let me get that at minus one twenty where is perfect. Yeah, I'm sandals minus one thirty four. Yeah. Yeah, I bet three six five was a little bit better too. I saw there's if you have a bet three six five account. Let me see what that MGM will do. But let's go into I have a few player props as well. I don't think you're going to like them. Because they're under a lot of under but why don't you go ahead with your your first. All right. So I'm taking water again. As you know, I've been high on water. I got a season long on him. I took him. Yes. Last week to get over his total. So the total is at sixty three and a half. I like that last week. He went five for one oh nine, which is a monster and actually Buffalo really keys in on Tyree Kill. He's had seven regular season games versus Buffalo. He's gone. He's a he's not gone over eighty two yards in any of them in the seven regular season games. Not over eighty eighty two. It is a set at ninety six and a half. And I never take like the biggest alpha dog over their numbers and any sport whether it's basketball and you're you know, you're taking the superstar to get over his thirty two and a half points. But he needs a perfect game to get over that number where I much prefer those kind of middling guys of a second tier receivers or the second tier, you know, wing shooters and basketball to get over their numbers a lot easier. But yeah, just just waddle. I feel like they're going to have all this attention on Tyree Kill. And I think waddle can absolutely crush over the over his sixty three and a half. I know like torch kind of scorched them a little bit. Scorched Buffalo a little bit and there's a couple other guys, but I also like Keyon Coleman on the other side for Buffalo. He looked he looked good. I mean, it was his first game. And as you can see on, you know, some of the other rookies, they didn't have the best first game as your boy, Marvin Harrison. Can you can you. Oh my God, dude. Yeah, he was doing wind sprints. He's like the new MVS just running up and down the field low, they were cracking his speed. He was like the slowest rookie like what happened in no way. Wow. Was he eat a bunch of wings the night before? And yeah, just like what's going on. So yeah, he covered his total last week, 51 yards last week. So perfect. This Miami defense doesn't scare me at all, especially in the secondary. He led the team in snaps, routes, targets, catches yards, absolutely everything. So I do like that. Another one I'm staying away from as we had. I had Dalton King Cade last week. Holy moly. He had two targets, one catch, 11 yards. So I know Arizona like was double teeming him a ton, but my triple teaming in the time. Yeah, like it was like it was a complete bracket. So, but my Jacksonville just did it to Miami last year. So you might be just into Jacksonville last week with Evan Ingram. They absolutely shut him down. And that was kind of, you can see that that was one of their game plans to not let the tight end kind of kind of end them. So I'd like to see King Kade come from a bounce back day, but I don't know. So if anything, I'd take his under, but I don't take unders. I know you don't. So I'll be the one who talks. Let's hear him here. Yep. I'm on Josh Allen's passing yardage under. It's currently around 245 to 46 and a half. And it goes along with what I said at the top of they want to run the hell out of the ball. Like they were, I think 30th in the in neutral game script as far as running the football or passing the football goes. So they want to run the ball down Miami's throat. I think they're going to be able to do it. Like Miami does not have the dudes up front. The bills offensive line is really damn good. Josh is going to keep running the ball. And so I think that they are going to that's what they're going to do. And we saw him go under the number last week. That was in a much higher score in a very high scoring game. Yep. I think that they're not. I don't think they're going to get. I mean, knock on wood. I'm a bills fans. I'm trying not to be biased here, but I don't think they're going to get down as quickly as they did. Now that being said, the dolphins, they can hit a few big plays right out the gate. But, you know, I think we're I think we're going to see a very run heavy game. And I that leads me toward Josh is under's under's on actually over on Curtis Samuel, actually. Oh, really? That is one of the receiving yard props I'm on for that game is an over on Curtis Samuel. I think they were kind of easing him back in after his injury. So, you know, his line set at 17 and a half. I'll take that. I'll take 17 and a half. He'll get five catches for 18. Yeah, something ridiculous like that. So like he was one who I like the I like the over and I'm on Tyreeks under. There you go. It's always it's always scary. But like you said, they may they're they're not going to let Tyreeek beat them. They will do bracket coverage. They're going to do, you know, they'll double cover them. They'll have a guy over the top to not let him get loose. And they don't have the same safeties as before, but they had the same coaches and same game planning. So that is what I think the the plan is for Tyreeks. And so because of that, I am, you know, I'm I'm on board with taking the under. It's a scary one. And sure is. Yeah, he can he can hit an 80 yarder like you did on Sunday. Next thing, you know, your toast. But I think the bills are that he don't want. They're not going to let them. Beat him that way. Another one that I'm interested in, but the line start up yet is Devon, a champ. So he is going to play is he's practicing today? Like there is no way with most of it being out. There's no way he's going to sit for a debate. Like this is, you know, it's an important game, right? It's only game two, but these are two teams that, you know, especially after Monday night, there are the two favorites in the division now. And this could have a huge impact down the road. So I think he's going to play. I want to see what his receiving props come out at because they line him up a bunch out wide. And I think that's going to be their plan with him most of the season. Like, I don't think he's going to get a ton of carries, but I think he'll get plenty of targets. And if they're taking away Hill, they're going to be looking for a chain at some point. So. Once is once we know that he's in and the lines come up, I'm going to go ahead and try to fire on that. Brian and Dan. Thanks for joining us tonight. Do you don't mind hit the hit the link. I pinned up top like retweet all that good stuff. We're kind of taking it our own pace tonight. We're going to go through games that we find interesting news and takeaways from week one, but You know, kind of wrapping up. Yeah, it's the Curtis Samuel over. I like the Tyree kill under and then the Josh Allen passing yardage under. Perfect. Yep. I'm on the Buffalo over. Excuse me, Buffalo. If you can get him in a teaser, I like, I like the Rams taking the Rams up. Versus Arizona or even Houston down or Philly down. I think both of those teams are going to win outright. Almost easily. I actually kind of like that as a Sunday night Monday night game. I know there's always tons of action on those games and I feel like it's going to be a pretty square bet, but I like Philly to to win that game outright and I like Houston to win at home at outright as well. But I'm also that was that was something I heard a lot of people like I listen to sports, but in podcast, some, you know, stick like that. But yeah, that's one thing I heard a lot of people talking about was like the book setting these lines at six, six and a half because they want like they're like, they expect all the teaser money. It's the teaser protection. Yeah, for sure. Yeah. But at the same time, like I could see the Texans being the one to blow that more likely than the Eagles. Yeah. I already bet I took the bears getting six and a half. I wanted the hook. So I took that one. Yeah, I was sick with your with your dogs. You took the bears. Dude. I don't know. Whatever. I'll roll with it. Their defense, I think, is pretty solid. Yeah, for sure. Yeah, I mean, I'm a sicko. What can I say? So anything else on Thursday? And then I kind of want to go through like some of our bigger takeaways from week one, whether it's from just like a general football standpoint or, you know, betting as a whole shirt. No, that's it. I have a waddle over his 63 and a half and I got key on Coleman over his 42 and a half receiving yards for both those games. All right. I love it. You're you're a sick person betting that key on over, but I love it. I guess one, and this is more just like how the games can put in general, like what they're going to do with Caitlyn Ramsey. Like, is he going to be just on one side? Are they going to have him? You know, who's doing the shadow? Yeah, exactly. So it's like, are they there's like they're going to shadow King Kate with him? No, exactly. They'll probably just left side of him. Yeah. I mean, OK, what? So what were some of the bigger things that stuck out from week one, you know, looking at, you know, just, some of the outcomes we saw, there wasn't anything. I think the Bengals looked like a fucking mess. That would probably be the craziest thing. I mean, God, I took them out of my survivor entries. Wow, the night before I had I have 10 entries in the big draft King survivor contest. It's like 1.6 million prize pool. Cool. Yeah. And I had five entry originally, five entries on the Seahawks, five on the Bengals. And I switched the five Bengals over to the Bills. Wow. All five of them. All five of them. Yeah, I was like, there's going to be a spy. I like the Bengals later in the season. Like, furrow starts slow, no Hagan chase coming back after not practicing. Like, this is going to be an ugly start. I didn't expect them to lose. Like, holy shit, that was really bad. I think one of the big takeaways is like, the Chiefs are just so damn good. Yeah. And I don't know what it's going to take for someone to get past them. Well, yeah, that kind of shows that Baltimore is right up there. I mean, I was big on the Chiefs on the Moneyline last week and big on my homes. That was a beauty that that covered. I love that. Got a couple of live plays in there on my homes over his passing yard. So that nicely crushed last week. But also, Lamar Jackson looks quick. He's lost a ton of weight. All I know you were kind of looking at is over his rushing yards in that game as well. But all I'll be interested to see is rushing yards in this game as well. I mean, with Las Vegas is defensive line and Crosby coming after him and how bad their offensive line looked. I mean, I'm surprised they ended up scoring 20 points on that K.C. defense with how bad their offensive line look. All those extra, you know, I mean, we've got five penalties for the tackle being in the back field every time, which was just painful to watch over and over again. It's so stupid. Yeah, they didn't call it on the Chiefs, even though their guy was doing it constantly. Yeah, yeah, which, yeah, just, I don't know if it was just the purple that they could just see it like compared to his head or the red. And though, I don't know what the hell it was, but you can see Harbor on the side be like, OK, that's fine. Just call it on the other side. And then it was just like, OK, just move up. But like, what do you do? And after you get two or three of them, OK, just get right on the line. Obviously, you can't do this anymore. So that's kind of annoying watching. That was, but yeah, I'll be, I'll be interested to see what Lamar's rushing number will be versus Vegas. Just, I mean, it looks like obviously Baltimore should be crushing them. They shouldn't be chasing points. So he shouldn't have to drop back that often. But when he does, I just feel like Crosby and the boys are just going to be in his kitchen. So I think he could get over his. The more you're kind of rushed out of the pocket, it's better than a designed run because everybody's already kind of going down the field. And you know, you get the defenders having their backs to you before you can take off. So I'll be looking to see that one. What else was an interesting one? The Falcons first. I want to talk about that for a second. Yeah, like I was very outspoken during the offseason. I thought betting the Falcons at minus 120 minus 130 to win the division was one of probably actually no was the worst bet you could make that makes this off season. Yeah, no kidding. Who would have thought backing a 36 year old coming off of a Achilles injury with a rookie head coach. They looked like shit week one. Now they play the Eagles. Next week, they host the Chiefs. Holy shit. That's a car. Yeah, odds are they're starting out. Oh, and three. Yeah, I had, you know, I had one division bet for the NFC South and I made preseason. And I point in the off season, I started a question, but I stuck with it and that was the Saints. Now it's one week and it was against the Panthers. But if their offensive line can do the job that they did against better units and if car can can find his receivers and they can get Chris a lot of it going, I still think I'm live with that one. Like the Panthers are clearly not going to do it. I don't really have a lot of faith in the Falcons. So I'm feeling OK about my Saints one. And then the like Sam Darnold showed up and he did exactly what I thought he was going to do against the shitty Giants. Yeah, pick them apart. Like the Giants are so bad. Yeah, yeah, the the Viking, you know, Sam Darnold showed that he he can be good enough. And Aaron Jones showed a lot more than I was expecting in that game. I mean, he was going, he went over six yards a carry. He did great in that one. Yeah, yeah, he covered his total as well. Yeah, that was how was it? Did you see one for sure? I know we were kind of talking about the Falcons that you can wait for these three games and then try and take them to win the division because they had like a gauntlet. I mean, obviously, the the Steelers and the Falcons was kind of a toss up game because we didn't really know what which team was going to be, you know, where with with the starting quarterbacks. But I mean, it was a small spread of four and a half or a four spread. So yeah, that was kind of a clever take to be able to, you know, let them go 0 and 3 and then see if they get it together. But, you know, it might be time for Pennics already. Like, I mean, there was no zip on his throws. He can't move at all. Like I was a lot of money to spend on a guy with a question mark being that old coming off in a ghillies like that. He was just a statue. Yeah. I mean, I mean, I'm happy. I don't really like the Eagles, but you know, your team got to win. So that's good, I guess. Yeah. Yeah. We'll see what happens with the Packers this week. Let's go to the Packers and start talking through some of the sides totals and props we like for this week. So it's scary. It's gross. And it fits in. It fits in. It fits in. I mean, we'll see what happens with the Packers this week. Let's go to the Packers and start talking through some of the sides totals and props we like for this week. So it's scary. It's gross. And it fits into what I like to bet. And that is the Packers getting three and a half points at home against the Colts. I know it's Malik Willis. I understand that part of it. You know, he's never showed a lot in the limited run he's gotten. That being said, this being in Green Bay, the Packers, it looks like you can still get the hook. Actually, it looks like the hook is gone at most books at this point. Yeah. You can get the three like minus 110. But I think, you know, the Packers, they're going to play like the crowd is going to get them up. And I think they can do enough against a middling Colts defense. And yeah, Anthony Richard had a few bombs that he nailed. They also had a lot of overthrows to take away like the couple big passes and he didn't really do a whole lot else. And I think that the Packers are live to win this game like it's a home game. They're underdogs. They're going to come out pissed off. And I think that they're going to be able to do enough to at least keep those with a field goal, if not win the game outright. Well, you know, I'm on the other side of Mr. Joe public is going to be taking the Colts minus those three points. I mean, what a swing in points rates with a seven and a half point swing from the look ahead to this one. So, but yeah, come on. I mean, Malik Willis is so bad. I think they've set some of his passing yards at 149 or something like that. I saw the first, a good, probably a good under yeah, like I mean, this, I don't know. This guy is not an NFL quarterback. He's kind of just a run around manager. He's like a, you know, a bad version of Richardson. But I thought the Colts played well enough against, you know, they took Houston right to the wire. This space was downloaded via spaces down.com visit to download your spaces today. And obviously it's a pretty suspect defense watching Joe mix and just absolutely scorched them. So I'll be looking at some Josh Jacobs numbers actually once they pop out. I'd like to see to see where he can go. He put up 84 yards against against the Eagles. So I mean, obviously they're going to have to have a very run heavy game plan, which obviously the Colts will know this, but I feel like, yeah, they've got a decent offensive line. And I mean, I don't love their defense. I mean, you know, the Eagles didn't look, didn't look great in a lot of those, a bunch of those quarters. They put it together for a couple of quarters in there. But to, you know, put up 30 odd points against this defense, I like the Colts minus the three. I just, I, I can't see, you know, green base scoring more than 20 points of this game. Well, it's a good thing the Colts really get a 17 and the Packers, you're going to win that one outright. Oh, it's, I'm telling you, man, like this is, this is one of those spots. Like the, the public had their week last week, true, it's going to swing away from them. I think I heard a stat that last season was the first profitable season for betting favorites in like 17 years, really, it just doesn't happen. But more so, I also trust Malefur. I think he, the, I think the Packers have the home field advantage, they have the coaching advantage. The Colts have the quarterback advantage. You know, I act like Anthony Richardson can't make some bad mistakes in opportune times. And I think the defense is going to show up to play in that one and the crowd is going to let them have it. So I, uh, yeah, I'm going to stick with my take that, you know, once it was at the hook, I was happy I was able to get it there. Probably wouldn't take it at the three. And I don't like teasing up from a three point one. So no, exactly. Which scares me, which means all of the sharps have the, you know, the same idea, right? Money doesn't usually move the line. It's somebody putting down a, you know, $100,000 bet on, on, on the Packers, plus three and a half to get it off that, that number, right, especially this far out. So when you see these line moves, it's, it's usually because the pros are hammering the, the underdog, which obviously scares me, but, uh, you know, Captain Joe public over here. I like it. Give me the Colts. Give me the Colts minus three. But I mean, like they're, they're, I mean, I love the coach there. I love, I mean, you know, they haven't played with Taylor and Richardson together and, you know, they only had four games last year together. I mean, they're just kind of getting it together. And I think downs might be coming back. So they got another long ball threat for, uh, Captain 80 yards off his back foot like it's nothing. So I don't know. I think the Colts could get up and, uh, I don't know if the, if Green Bay can catch them. All right. Let's go to Detroit, uh, the lines back to back weeks where they have playoff rematches to start the season. Time against the Bucks, they're in Detroit once again, the spread on this one has gotten out to seven and a half, which, you know, I like betting, uh, I like betting dogs, but this kind of worries me seeing the number balloon up that high, you know, especially the lions coming off of, uh, the overtime win, like that's, tell me that a lot of, a lot of money hammered the lions and I don't know, even at the seven and a half, like the Bucks looked good last week against Jaden Daniels and his first start. But you know, is that repeatable against a much better lions team? And I don't, I don't think it is and a much better lions defensive line as well, like Baker had years to hang around back there and then pick Washington's shit defensive part. So yeah. And the total is really high. It's 51 and a half. So like I think this is going to be a fun game to watch. I'm going to look for some prop angles to take, but I think when it comes to the sides and the total as much as I love this game, I don't think I can touch it. Like it's just, it's just setting up a lot of red flags for me. Yeah. Me too. I don't have either side. I did already book a bet though. I took Chris Godwin over 57 and a half. I know you love your boy, Chris Godwin, but yeah, I mean, he, he scorched yet, uh, last week, eight for 83, he looked good out there. I mean, it's a new offensive coordinator in the last couple of years. He's been just kind of, you know, a shell of himself where Mike Evans has just been going crazy. But the fact that his is set at 57 and Mike Evans is set at 67, I, you know, like I said, give me that second tier receiver. And I mean, yeah, Baker looked good, put up 83 last week. And I mean, we saw what, uh, Cooper cup went off against them, Puka was going to kind of go on his way. I mean, you know, the Lions kind of got carved up a little bit by Stafford there. So yeah, I like, like Godwin already put a bet on him 57 and a half over on the other side of the ball. Do you think this is a get right spot for Amunara? I mean, he did nothing in the first season and he doesn't feel like the guy who's going to like be the squeaky wheel and complain about his usage. He, he's a good team player, but you think that they want to get him going, you know, just kind of knowing that like, all right, it was James and Williams week last time. Let's, I, when I kind of want to look and see, like, are there first quarter props because I would be, you know, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they came out and threw two, three, four pass Domino on their first possession, just to like make it a concerted effort to get him going early in the game. That's a great call. I'm literally writing that down right now. I, I think that, I mean, I thought the same thing was going to happen with Terry McClure and, uh, and Washington boy was a dead wrong on that, but, uh, well, when you got Cliff Kingsbury, who is an absolute bozo, uh, running the show there, like what a putt. Like he didn't, they moved, they, I saw some stats. Like they had the least amount of pre snap motion in the NFL. They didn't move guys around at all. McClure was on the same side of the field for like 90% of the, like, they did like, what are they doing? Like, Kingsbury is, and Dan Quinn for hiring him. Like what is going on there? Like, yeah, it's bad. College offense. They're running like this air raid for wide bad college offense that they're running in the NFL. And it doesn't work. I've seen it on two different teams now. It takes very just, yeah. So unfortunately, yeah, they're running out of Zach Earth at tight end. Like he's not getting, he doesn't have anyone who's getting separation. So James having to tuck it and run and take all these extra hits. Like they're going to get the kid killed. Yeah. Yeah, they are. I just, I can't stand Cliff Kingsbury. I don't, you know, I wouldn't trust any coach who would bring him in as a coordinator. Uh, let's look through, you know, what other games are kind of standing out to you. Like, I mean, this is like, I'm not going to bet them. Uh, but like the sharp move is to bet the Panthers this week, getting, getting six and a half. If you can find it, most of them is actually down to six now, but chargers coming across country for an early kickoff, you know, Herbert did not look especially good last week. The Panthers like, you know, all the trends backing up teams coming off of that big of a loss. But I don't know. I have to, I got to wait and see any sign of life, life from Bryce before I can bet on him. Yeah, exactly. I've seen it actually dropped a five and a half on Fandoor, which kind of perked my ears up to start taking those chargers. I mean, yeah, I Carolina looked so bad and I feel like, I don't know, with, with, with Harbaugh at the chargers, I feel like they're not going to charger themselves anymore. Like they've always done in the past where, you know, they just find ways of going for it on a terrible idea or not going for it when they're the go for it team. All of them, like they just seem to charger it up all the time as the, as the say it goes. But I've been, I have been looking at that to, to have a look at chargers minus five and a half. Yeah. It's an ugly one. Yeah. Exactly. I don't, I don't see a ton of props. I was looking at JK, but like I said, they haven't released a ton of them. Some of the ones I have looked at that I like is I'm going to go back, if you want to get onto the New Orleans and Dallas game, I like Camara getting over his receiving yards again. I took that last week. He covered by the hook who's over 26 and a half. You have five for 27 in a 47 to 10 blowout game. And now he's going versus Dallas who could get after the quarterback. This should be a, you know, they shouldn't be ahead in points. They should be trying to, you know, catch up points, which will get Camara his, his receiving yards. And I mean, we know car loves a dump off. So it said at 28 and a half, it's going up to two yards since last week, but I still like it. I'm seeing 29 and a half now. Oh, okay. Yeah. Projections that, uh, bunch you and I use have 30 yards, there you go, or yards projected for Camara. So, uh, and I think that could even be a bit low. I mean, they are going to have to throw here and car is going to, car is going to be looking for him. So I don't, I don't hate that call. It could be another fun game and it's another one where I want to back the dog. Uh, I want to back the saints because I do think that car looked much more comfortable, but it's like, that's the tough thing. And that's why like I find week two to be really challenging from a betting standpoint, just because you don't want to over underreact to too many things. And I think discretion is, is the way to go. Like if you're, you know, I want to believe that the saints are better than people expected, but it could just be that the Panthers are handed down the work team in the league and that just elevated how the saints looked and the Cowboys looked great going on the road into Cleveland. CD came back a little bit. He hadn't missed any camp. He looks off, you know, fantastic. I don't, the running game, I think is, is a question mark, but you know, can the saints, one thing playing at home against Panthers, another going on the road into Dallas? I was hoping this one would get closer to a touchdown. It would be a bet for me if it got to seven, but right now it's down to six at most books and it's really just minus one 18 a fan duel. So I think we're going to see this probably close at six, maybe even five and a half and make a bunch of money. So that was one, let's see what else, 49ers Vikings got, you know, the Niners coming off of the short week with the Monday night game, it sounds, you know, it was interesting today. We got news that Rappaport and Schefter saying that would be a long shot for McCaffrey to play, but McCaffrey saying that he's going to give it everything he has so he can try to be out there, which you'd expect the player to say, I, you know, I want to be on Jordan Mason again, because that guy is just an absolute stud. I bet the Vikings at six and a half currently at five and a half, five and a half or six. You can still get six and a half minus one 20 at fan duel. I took the Vikings. I'm worried about Jordan Addison, him not being there, but Aaron Jones, you know, I think he's going to be able to run the ball here. And the offensive line for the Vikings is very good. They were one of the giants, but they at least have some guys who can rush the passer and they, they held up against that very, very well. So I still like the Vikings getting the points here. And I think I saw Sam Darnold's passing yards popping as a potential over, which I know is scary to some people, but I don't know, I think he, he, Jalen Naylor is a really good player and he is going to step in there if as then doesn't play, they can still throw the ball to Chandler and Aaron Jones. Yeah, I'm seeing his line currently is you can find it as low as two 26 and a half. Okay. And the projections are, are giving me two 48.7 passing yards. So some value there, some value on Brock Purdy's over as well. I actually bet that one earlier today over two 32 and a half is what I got it at on bed MGM. Okay. He's updating two two 58 is still a two or what did I, it's two 32 and a half right now. I think it's right around where I got it. Cause not a lot of people bet props on Wednesdays. Yeah. And so, you know, I'm during the week, I'm looking to fire my overs earlier in the week. Yeah. And bet my under is closer to kickoff just because most people, uh, want to bet overs, yourself included. Yeah. You're going to do that. And that was the time to do it because those, those numbers get juiced every, every yard counts. And so I like to come back and bet some unders, uh, on Sundays. That is 100% exact, exact way to do it. If you're betting props, you get your overs early and you get your unders late because yeah, all the public moves, moves the lines one way or another. I can see this. God wouldn't want going up. Um, but yeah. So I'm on Camara, I'm on Godwin. What else? What about, uh, TC and, uh, sincey, have you got anything on that? We got it. We got it. Yeah. We got to talk about that one. I'm just looking to see if there's any other games in the early slate. We kind of mentioned the Jets and Titans. I'm on the Titans getting the three and a half there, even though it's gross. I like my collards. I grabbed the total at 42, uh, on like Sunday or Monday, so I'm like 40 and a half now. So I'm happy with that. Nice. Um, and I've been trying to put those in the discord as soon as I get them in tag people just so they can kind of grab perfect value as possible. Yeah. That was huge. That, uh, basin over 11 and a half rushing here. That was nice. Yeah. I'm on the rave. I took the Ravens when it was minus eight. It got to 10 and now it's back down to like eight and a half or nine. That kind of worries me. The Ravens were going to be my team for survivor this week. I was just going to say screw it and go it all there, but like, I still probably will because Vegas looked mediocre. They're having a travel cross country for an early game and the Ravens are coming off of a loss. And I think that like anything's possible. The ball, the ball bounces weird ways, but I just don't see a gardener men shoe led team coming into Baltimore and beating the Ravens coming off of a loss. I mean, what, what was the coach doing? Are you serious? It's pretty punted fourth and one on like the opponent 40. That was like the dumbest thing I've ever seen. I was like, there's no way he's doing this. Like, are they calling it timeout? Like what's happening here? And I heard, I heard this is funny. Can you tell me the last, when was the last time that a coach punted on fourth and one from the opponent's 40? Never. I heard one where like that exact scenario down so many points and on that 40 with a fourth and one that no coach has ever done it in that exact scenario before. It was like, oh, it would like 120 water or something. But 2016 was the last time that something like that happened. Wow. Wow. A coach, even like score removed from it down, you know, fourth and one in the 40s, like eight years to someone did that. And hey, the Chargers marched down the field score. That was game over. Like the Raiders got what they deserved. And I, you know, it's like, it's true. Last year, Antonio Pierce was aggressive in those spots. He wanted to win the head coaching job. Now he got the job. And it's like he got complacent and kind of, you know, like a little bit of a bitch there. And so they got what they deserved. And I think we see the Ravens come out pissed off, but they lost, you know, that likely that last play, the touch, the toe on the line. Yeah. Wow. Crazy. So yeah, that was that one. Yeah, let's go to, let's get to the afternoon games then we'll start with that that Bengal Chiefs game. I mean, the line has been all over the place. It was up to six and a half at one point. I'm seeing it down to four and a half as some books, five and a half. It looks like the consensus line at the moment. I wish I would have grabbed six and a half. I wish I would have grabbed four and a half on the Chiefs. You know it. Yeah. You know it. Johnny public. It's weird, man. I don't think T Higgins is going to play again. And that to me is a problem. Yeah, for sure. I saw Chase, you know, not looking rhythm with Burrow last last week, still concerns about Burrow's risk. I think a lot of the stuff we saw on social media was just overblown with the concern. Like I saw a doctor put out like a very good thread kind of breaking down each part for being one and you know what it implied to him as a medical expert. And so like I'm not as worried about it. The Bengals always play the Chiefs top. Yeah, they do. You know, Burrow is three and one straight up against the Chiefs and every game has ended within a field goal. So I, if I had gotten the six and a half, I'd feel better. If it goes back to six, I might take the Bengals there. But at the same time, you know, Zach Moss looked OK. They looked at her rhythm as an offense, not a whole lot from the tight end position. If it's just Chase again with no Higgins, they're going to be able, you know, the Chiefs and Spagnola can scheme to take him away. I wanted like when I saw the schedule, like, oh, week two, this matchup is going to be an awesome game. And now I'm just kind of like, it's going to kind of be whatever, like it could totally be an absolute bloodbath in the Chiefs win this by 10 points. Yeah, I like I want to take a look at the check. Oh, they still haven't put his yards out. But if you're going to let Joe mix and put up 178 total yards against you and with that offensive line. I mean, I think Casey, I think they could only see put the number that they want on them. I mean, they're the Bengals defense run defense looks so bad against against New England, who, you know, isn't supposed to be a great offense, doesn't have a good offensive line. I mean, Stevenson, you know, half a plotter, like he's nothing special. So I think the angry running of Pacheco, I'm going to be looking at his rushing yards. That's something I already have ticked off as soon as it comes, I'm going to take a look at it that over. Yeah, remandre going for 120 against the Bengals. Yeah. 25 carries 120 yards, you got in the end zone, like that's crazy. Like Pacheco is going to get a ton of work. Well, and the difference is the New England is like they don't have any passing game whatsoever. So they can just stack the box and they still put up 125 yards when all they can do is run, right? It's run run, hopefully a short third down pass. But with Casey's offense, yeah, I think Pacheco is going to go nuts. Yeah, it's, that's a tough one. I want to, you know, the, the cycle, I mean, once a bet, the dog, but I just can't do it. I kind of, I'm kind of leaning toward the under 47 and a half in that one as well. What did that open at? Like, it's been, it got up as high as 48 and a half. It looks like at most places, but, you know, 48 for us, open at 49, we should have grabbed the under there, but still 47 and a half key number. And you know, if the Bengals are going to struggle on offense again, like I think they will, I mean, if they put up 13, I think that would be generous. And we know that the chiefs like to get off to hot starts and like, throw it down with a, with a lead. So maybe those things where I live bet it, like if they get up, yeah, halftime, I may look for a live under if the number has moved, just because I could see them, you know, once they've established that ground game, just taking the air out of the ball and not letting the Bengals really do much of anything with it. Yeah. Yeah. I could just see, you know, getting four yards on each run from Bacheco and then a quick, you know, dump off to, to rice, you know, a quick in or a quick slant or something like that, just to get the first down and just, you know, I can see these 12 minute drives for K.C. putting up a touchdown. I do like the under that play. All right. Let's talk about Cardinals and Rams. So this is a weird one where I don't know what to do at the moment. I, I saw some steam happening. So I grabbed the Cardinals at two and a half point dogs and now they're like one, one and a half point favorites. And I kind of want to come back, like, I don't think the line is going to get much further than that. So I'm kind of considering going for a middle and taking the, because the Rams money line is currently plus one, oh two. Yep. Like part of me wants to basically lock in a break even or if it lands, you know, Rams winning by one or two, you know, double dipping on that one, but I'm not, I haven't decided on it quite yet. The Rams not having Puka, I think is a problem. They're offensive line and even more banged up, but I still can't justify them being dogs. Even if it's just a point to the Cardinals. I mean, either Marvin Harrison look terrible. Uh, Tyler, you know, James Connor looked good, but I also trust Sean, and this is another one where I will defer to coaching and the quarterback play of like Sean, I will take Sean McVay over Jonathan Gannon any day, a Super Bowl winning coach versus the guy who's won like, what, three or four games and Stafford is still like he showed a lot in that game against Detroit. And I think he can carve up this defense even without Puka and, you know, everyone who said that Kyren's value in fantasy was gone because of Blake Korm and the pun return stuff. That couldn't have been further from the truth. Yeah, I didn't believe that for a second. Yeah. So I kind of like, I feel like the Rams money line at plus 102 should be just like the easiest bet ever. Yeah, I'm on the Rams as well for this one. Um, now Arizona's defensive line is one of the worst defensive lines in the league. I think that had, I heard something like 3.4% pressure rate, which is just like unheard of. It's one of the lowest in like years. So as bad as the Rams offensive line is, Arizona can't really take advantage of it. And Arizona just has a god awful defense. I think, yeah, Stafford can carve him up. Now I was big on Cooper Cup in that game last week. Actually, I took a ladder all the way up to 100 yards for him. So that covered nicely for him. But it's now into the 80s and that was kind of my handicap was that like, you know, he was a triple crown winner just a couple of years ago. And you know, his yardage props were set like Tyreeks in the 90s over and over again, right? Middle 90s high 90s. And this was set at like 63 and a half or something like that. So I ate that up and went up as high as I could, a hundred plus and that all came through, which is beautiful. But but yeah, now they're set it at like 80, 84 and a half, something like that. 85 and a half now. Yeah, it just keeps crossed. So like I said before, I don't take guys at their peak, you know, numbers, there's no way I can't touch that now. But but yeah, I do like the Rams on the money line. And if you can get them as the plus 105 teasing that up to to plus seven and a half, I like that look as well too. Yeah, I'm seeing it at one now. I think they're trying to protect against people. I mean, you could, I don't, I don't want to tease the seven because if you push on the T's, it's a loss, so I don't want to do that, but yeah, I think that is, that is an option to take for sure if you can, if you can find that number, I don't know if it's going back down. I think this is, you know, getting the Rams at plus one and a half, that was probably your best opportunity if you want to get it out that way. Yeah. Yeah. I will just say I like the Broncos in this one as a teaser piece. I don't want to bet them. I would have, I would have really liked to get three and a half. But you know, Tomlin as a dog covers all the time. Yeah. Tomlin is a favorite on the road does not cover. And you know, we saw them, you know, it's, it's also a rookie quarterback starting against that Steelers defense that just just, they look good too. Falcons, but Bo Nix is much more mobile than Kirk Cousins obviously. True. So you know, Bo, I felt like as that game went on, Bo played better and better. It was in the late window. So I got to see more of it. But you know, he looks good with his legs, he just doesn't have the weapons and that is a problem, right? Yeah, for a sudden contest, catch some touchdowns, but he's not a game changer. The running game looked just okay. They have a good offensive line, which I think definitely helped. But you know, I think that that's a really good teaser piece if you can get them up to eight and a half. And like we said at the top, for me, my favorite teaser this week is the bills and the Broncos getting each of them to eight and a half. Yep. I like that too. Yeah. Mine is, is Buffalo and either either Houston or the Eagles, bringing them down to just a money line pick them. All right. What else? You know, and you got like a few minutes left where we'll wrap this bad boy up and kind of talked about the Sunday night game. I think that's going to be a fun one to watch bears in Texan should be an absolute blast. I cannot wait for that. I want to see Caleb needs to do more. And I think he can. Like I think the Texans defense is good, but they showed some weaknesses against the Colts. And I think they can, you know, the Bears can exploit those if they're like, doesn't sound like Rome is going to be there. He and Allen will probably play, but he's, he's banged up with that heel injury. So, you know, can the Bears get something going on offense here and, you know, put up some points and that to me is another thing of like why I like the Bears in the six and a half is like people, people saw that and they may be panicking a little bit. But it's a one game sample and I think that, you know, we're going to see Caleb clean some of those mistakes up and I think that they can, you know, he can rise the occasion here against Texans. Yeah. Their defense looked real good. But obviously, yeah, they got a ton of, ton of work to do, but offense, I've seen, I guess his rookie of the year from like a, you know, a minus 120, which is just the craziest rookie of the year stat ever to like a plus one 80 something like that. So it's definitely moving the other way for him to get that rookie of the year. But yeah, I haven't deep died into it too much. I just, I saw the number and I'm like, this is kind of a perfect teaser leg. I can't see Houston losing at home to Chicago, especially, you know, I mean, they're just getting used to their offense with mixing and digs in there now. But yeah, their defense is good enough. But, but yeah, I don't know. I can't trust Chicago. I can't put my money on Chicago, but yeah, I can't blame you for that one, man. All right. Any thoughts on the Monday night game Falcons going up against your Eagles? I think this is another one. Those big boys up at the Eagles have up front could absolutely destroy Kirk Cousins. And it honestly wouldn't be surprised me if he got venture Michael Pennics in this game. Yeah. It might be a way to start getting Pennics in there, you know, if he takes a pop or, you know, just why don't you just sit up the rest of this one, buddy? We'll save you for the next week. But I haven't deep dive into any of the props on that one yet as none of it is posted yet. But yeah, if you asked me to bet just the side of the total, yeah, give me the Eagles, my aside. I mean, they look good against Green Bay. Well, I wouldn't say good, but serviceable against a, you know, super bullish, super bullish type team. And now we'll see Atlanta, Atlanta has some problems. So we'll see what my Eagles can do against them. Yeah. I think they're going to have no problem asserting their will against the hapless Falcons at this point. Um, all right, any, any other final thoughts I Brian, Dan, thanks for joining us tonight. This will be up on Alex's podcast feed as well for anyone who listens there. Come hang out on Twitter space. Sometimes if you're interested and, uh, yeah, I'll, uh, I'll be doing the Thursday show tomorrow in the afternoon and then also the Sunday morning one. So come hang out with us for those. I definitely will. Yeah. I came in listening to the last one on the DFS. I liked that. Got some nuggets that I used, uh, for that game is for, uh, for the Sunday, uh, slate as well. So yeah, that was good. All right. Man. Well, this was awesome. Well, once again, we'll, we'll keep this going every week, plenty to digest. I think next week I want to talk once we've had a few more data points. This is when I started liking to look at like some of the futures and the awards markets because we have a little bit more information, but a lot of people aren't paying as much attention to those yet and the books aren't adjusting to them quickly enough. True. Um, so one bet I did make this week being the Homer that I am, I threw a couple of units down on the bills to win the Super Bowl at 16 to one, I'm ready to have my heart broken again. Um, but I just, you know, I, I liked what I saw out of Josh. I think the defense is going to continue to improve and, and gel well together. We'll get Milano back, I hope at some point, um, but that was my, my one future bet was, uh, was taken, taken the bills, still getting plus 1600. Nice. That's a good number. Yeah. Uh, so we'll talk about a few more futures and award stuff next week, but thanks guys for joining us tonight. Enjoy Thursday night football. It should be another fun one. Uh, I mean, any night we, I saw someone, and here's my last rant of the night, I promise, I saw someone complaining about this Saturday's college football slate saying that it wasn't very good. All I can think of was a month ago, we were all just craving football back. So yeah, let's not, let's not take anything for granted because next thing you know, it's in the middle of February, the overall is going to be done and we're going to be losing our minds for any shred of football. So enjoy bills and dolphins tomorrow night, let's make the most of every week, every game that we can and hope everyone has an awesome week with your bet. All right, brother, let's roll, take it easy, everybody. This space was downloaded via spaces down.com. Visit to download your spaces today.